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2-1 three straight weeks.All three weeks I picked the winner (Seattle @ Detroit, Denver vs. KC and Baltimore @ Cleveland), and all three times I was screwed by the spread.
Stevie Wonder could see who the winners were this week.Side Story...I have a friend that did an 8 team parlay and I forget every team he has but I was watching the games yesterday and it occurred to me that most of his teams were winners and covered...so I called him...if Atlanta covers tonight...and I don't think it's a slam dunk...if Atlanta covers he will win $1,500 from a $15 ticket 8 team parlay...beer is gonna be on him.Nice show. Was it just me or was this the easiest week ever. All my plays were covered by more than 15 points!
MOP, you just jinxed him!!!!!!Ministry of Pain said:Stevie Wonder could see who the winners were this week.Side Story...I have a friend that did an 8 team parlay and I forget every team he has but I was watching the games yesterday and it occurred to me that most of his teams were winners and covered...so I called him...if Atlanta covers tonight...and I don't think it's a slam dunk...if Atlanta covers he will win $1,500 from a $15 ticket 8 team parlay...beer is gonna be on him.Nice show. Was it just me or was this the easiest week ever. All my plays were covered by more than 15 points!
Interesting -- my theory is the exact opposite. The first three weeks are the only weeks I'd be willing to place a bet, since it's the only time when I feel like I know more than the masses (by following the NFL all through the offseason). That the only time I have a comparative advantage. During the season, we're all working with basically the same information, so there's no advantage.
I never said he was my best friend.MOP, you just jinxed him!!!!!!Ministry of Pain said:Stevie Wonder could see who the winners were this week.Side Story...I have a friend that did an 8 team parlay and I forget every team he has but I was watching the games yesterday and it occurred to me that most of his teams were winners and covered...so I called him...if Atlanta covers tonight...and I don't think it's a slam dunk...if Atlanta covers he will win $1,500 from a $15 ticket 8 team parlay...beer is gonna be on him.Nice show. Was it just me or was this the easiest week ever. All my plays were covered by more than 15 points!
Something has to give tonight. Atlanta has rushed for 29 first downs in the first 2 games and the Saints have allowed only 8 so far this year (although that was against 2 horrible offensive lines). Last year Michael Vick and Warrick Dunn combined for 150 yards and 111 yards against the Saints. The interesting stat is that Crumpler was the leading receiver for Atlanta in both games (4-52 and 3-94). The Saints rushing defense has not gotten worse as they have cut the YPC to 3.5 from 4.3 last year (don't forget that was against Cleveland and GB though). I look for the Saints to play the run and let Vick try to beat them throwing the ball. The Saints D is only allowing 5.7 yards per pass attempt and we know that Vick is not a great passer. Atlanta is only 9 of 26 on 3rd down converstions (aweful).Drew Brees has done a good job so far in the passing game. Yards per Attempt are up to 7.4 compared to 6.5 last year. Brees didn't have great receivers in SD, so the lack of them doesn't concern me. He doesn't have Gates (obviously), and has only connected with Mark Campbell once this year. I think the difference is that he has Reggie Bush to throw to (15 completions in 2 games). Horn, Colston, and Henderson have enough speed to spread the defense (so I look for Brees to go deep early in the game in an attempt to spread the Atlanta D). This should open up the run for Deuce and the short passing game to Bush.It looks like everyone is hammering the over, but I am going to stay away from it. I think that New Orleans "could" have a better rushing defense than the public believes. I haven't seen enough of them to know for sure.After the big weekend, I am going with New Orleans as the 5 point home dog (BDog). The public thinks that the Saints can't stop the run, but it looks improved thru 2 games and if they can, Vick can't beat them thru the air, IMO. Of course, I will undoubtedly lose this bet because I'm breaking my rule posted in my original post.Congrats! Nice picks and supporting info.Whats your take for the MNF game?
I used to think the same thing. The books spend so much time trying to set the spread so that Sharps don't nail them that their lines are not too far off of what we would expect, IMO. I have noticed that they have set the over/under lines (early in the season) based on last years betting trends and therefore the knowledge of offseason changes comes into play. Not saying that what you are doing can't work for you, it historically has benefited me more betting totals early.Good luck tonight!!! Unless you took Atlanta. (I broke my rule and took the Saints +5). Just playing with a little of their money
And how.Monday Nite's game put me around plus 23 units. Can't wait to get to work on next week.MOP, you just jinxed him!!!!!!Stevie Wonder could see who the winners were this week.Side Story...I have a friend that did an 8 team parlay and I forget every team he has but I was watching the games yesterday and it occurred to me that most of his teams were winners and covered...so I called him...if Atlanta covers tonight...and I don't think it's a slam dunk...if Atlanta covers he will win $1,500 from a $15 ticket 8 team parlay...beer is gonna be on him.Nice show. Was it just me or was this the easiest week ever. All my plays were covered by more than 15 points!
3-0 this week5-4 through 3 weeks
