Hope the vacation was enjoyable. Thanks 4x for the effort. Not much going on NFL wise, so I'll take a shot at some prognostication.
utsonMoPhat:
6-3 for the year & (3-0) last week - but not a $ gambler aside from these "free" units.
Ten @ Indy (-19)...48
Wow. I can't remember a line this big, but I guess it makes sense w/ a rookie QB on a horrible team coming to the RCA dome. I'm betting after INDY gets up 20+ early, Peyton is sitting out part of the 4th qtr. and TN gets enough garbage points to cover this number. Although, w/ Haynesworth out the TN run D will be softer and INDY should run more than ususal - shortening the game - and keeping the scoring lower than normal for the Colts. I wouldn't bet this one.
INDY 27 - TN 13
Wash @ NyG (-4.5)...45
The Giants are well rested, but giving 4.5 after the defensive beat down they took @ SEA in week 3? WAS is pumped after pulling the high scoring OT game vs. JAX, and that offensive performance says Saunders' offense is starting to click. The Giants pass D is suspect at best and will have to account for Portis, so it looks like a tough matchup for the G Men. Should be a high scoring game for both teams, so I'd lean towards the over, and take the points since I think this will be a tight divisional FG type game. Eli has proven he's good @ playing catch-up, and he'll need that this week.
WAS 33 - NYG 27
Det @ Minn (-7)...40
The Vikes laying 7 after they got schooled by the Bills last week? DET's pass D is soft, but their run D is decent. B Johnson is a solid qb, but not one that will win many games w/ his arm. He's good @ minimizing mistakes and maybe a td or 2, but it will take more than that for the Vikes to cover that spread, let alone win the game. DET will score enough and keep the game close enough to cover here, even on the road - as they did last week @ STL in a shootout. MN has a decent defense, but Air Martz will get theirs. Like the over here as well.
MN 27 - Det 24
TB @ NO (-7)...35
NO should have not covered last week except for the garbage time TD to Colston. Yea they all count, but even w/ a rookie qb coming to town and a somewhat surprising defense I think this game will be closer than 7 points. Mainly b/c the TB is rested and their defense will contain Deuce and Reggie. Too many questions for my pick here, and the O/U seems about right. Pass.
NO 20 - TB 16
StL (-3) @ GB...47
Favre and the packers are struggling to say the least. Now Driver is ?'able in addition to Green dinged, and their DBs are giving up points in bunches. Not the best scenario for the Rams coming to town. Hard to bet against Favre in Lambeau, but STL will run and pass on them, keeping the packers offense off the field. STL's defense is OK statistically, but they're leading the league in takeaways - something GB is prone to deliver. Time of possession will kill the Pack this week as STL covers easy. Don't like the O/U here either.
STL 33 - GB 24
Mia @ NE (-10)...37.5
If Miami can't score on Houston, why should they do anything vs. a rebounding NE team that smoked CIN on the road last week. The only question here is are you willing to lay the 10? MIA's defense is still decent and NE's wrs haven't proved anything yet, but NE will run all day in this one. Guessing a lower scoring game than usual, but I don't like the Pats enough after struggling w/ BUF and the Jets to give the 10. Pass this one also.
NE 24 - MIA 13
Buf @ Chi (-10.5)...34
The Bills will get back to reality this week, even w/ the league's leading rusher. If SEA can't score on CHI @ Soldier field, how can BUF? I'd lay the points and stay away from the O/U. BUF's defense is solid, but their offense will struggle getting past the 50. I doubt CHI's D will even allow garbage time scoring to make the line ?'able.
CHI 27 - BUF 9
Cle @ Car (-8.5)...37.5
CAR is returning to form, but they're not quite there yet. CLE is a decent enough team staying in all their games thus far. But going on the road to the west coast, and now another trip to the other coast will be too much. The Browns will sneak a score in late to make it interesting, but fall short. S Smith should run wild vs. the banged up CLE DBs, but CLE will contain Foster. Like the over here.
CAR 27 - CLE 23
NyJ @ Jax (-7)...37
JAX will be pissed about choking the WAS game away and play tough at home. The Jets rushing game will be without Houston and Barlow is struggling everywhere except the goal line. M Jones is out for this one, however R Williams is taking over anyway, and Lefty is throwing well without too many costly turnovers. JAX will run all over the Jets, but this will end up closer than 7 with Pennington/Coles/Cotchery playing well. Don't really like this #, but if someone held a gun to my head, I'd take the Jets w/ the points and the over here.
JAX 24 - NYJ 20
KC (-3.5) @ Arz...39
KC, even w/ Huard @ qb will destroy the Cards. This is the line that jumped out to me and begged for some units. KC's D is VERY underrated thus far and now Warner is on the bench. AZ scores a couple times late, but by then the game will be well in hand for KC. LJ will be managed (100 and 1), as AZ throws the house at him in their only hope to stay in the game (A Wilson in the box all day), but Huard will come up big again (275 and 3) getting Gonzo and Kennison involved.
KC 31 - AZ 17
Oak @ SF (-3.5)...41
Bay area matchup w/ 2 struggling teams. SF got pounded on the road in KC last week after a nice start to the season, and OAK choked away a nice first half lead and a nice rushing performance from Jordan. I'll go w/ the home team here in a ugly game where both teams struggle to score. But wouldn't bet this one except maybe the under.
SF 17 - OAK 13
Dal @ Phi (-2)...44
If Westy's playing I'd lay the 2, but if not I can't see Buckhalter/Moats doing much vs. a solid DAL defense. McNabb is unconscious, but the injuries @ WR will catch up this week, and the rested Cowboys plus the TO return to PHI w/ a banged up PHI Defense is enough to convince me to take the 2. Glenn will once again do the most damage in the passing game, but Julius & MBIII will make the difference in this one.
DAL 24 - PHI 23
Pitt @ SD (-3.5)...37.5
The Charger's choked one away last week @ BAL in a game they controlled until the last drive. PIT is fresh off the bye and Big Ben will show improvement. Parker and the rush offense will do surprising well considering SD's stout rush D, and PIT will keep it close enough to cover - if not win the game S/U. Bye week vs. tough loss thinking here. Both teams should surprisingly score well.
PIT 30 - SD 27
Bal @ Den (-3.5)...33
DEN is having trouble scoring period. And now the leagues best defense comes into town. Billick seems to have Shanny's number lately and Plummer's mistakes will cause them this game - even after the bye. BAL will handle Walker w/ R Smith a non-factor these days, and put pressure on Plummer causing 2-3 picks. If Denver couldn't score a TD on KC @ home, I'm guessing they'll struggle vs. BAL. DEN's defense is solid as well, not allowing any TDs thus far and McNair isn't shocking anyone w/ his play. Guessing a low scoring MNF matchup with BAL pulling it out late in a kicker fest. Shocking how low the O/U is, but I'd guess even under 33.
BAL 16 - DEN 13
My picks for the week:
CHI - 10.5
KC - 3.5
STL -3
Good luck to everyone w/o players going against my teams.
He will add to it later today.
Looks like the others were hard too.
