***Official 2008 NFL Week 1 Wagering thread*** (1 Viewer)

[Liquid Tension]

Second, a few of the reasons why I like Buffalo.

* When a West Coast team (SD, Sea, Oak, SF) travels to the East Coast (AFC East, NFC East) in the early part of the season as a Dog, they are a mere 2-11 SU since 2002. In these games, the Over has gone 9-4. * Seattle is 1-10 ATS overall vs. the AFC East in the last 10 years. In their games, the Over has gone 9-2.

* Giving the over a good look here could be wise but is not the top play in this game.

This season I will update my own website w/ my picks and plays first, and will then post here as I make the messageboard rounds. I'll be back w/ some more plays.

It really looks like we have a sharp group over here, and I'm sure we will be able to help each other out this season. Good luck to everyone.

I looked into this, not necessarily from a gambling perspective, but just to see how much the effect of traveling west to east had on a team to open the season. There have been 31 times that a team from the Mountain or Pacific Time Zone ("Western team") has opened on the road in the Eastern Time Zone in week 1, going back to 1993. The Western team has gone 11-20 in these situations, also 11-20 ATS. However, I wanted to check and see whether this advantage was due to an increased home field advantage, or a line that in retrospect overvalued the particular western team or undervalued the eastern team.Turns out its the latter. I used the Simple Rating System end of season power ratings for each team in those 31 matchups to see how much the home field advantage was worth for the eastern team in week one. Turns out, home field advantage was worth approximately +2.0 points in these matchups. The biggest factor was more that the lines in these particular games were off when looking at it retrospectively, knowing how the teams performed all season.

Let's look at Seattle's results as an example. Seattle has played 6 openers in the Eastern Time Zone.

1994, Seattle won by 21 at Washington as a 1 pt dog. The end of season SRS says Sea turned out about 2.5 points better before taking HFA into account, so that line wasn't bad, but Seattle won convincingly.

1998, Seattle won by 38 at Philadelphia as a 4 1/2 pt favorite. The end of season SRS says Sea turned out about 14 points better before taking HFA into account, so that line was bad in favor of Sea, as Philly was terrible that year, but Seattle won convincingly and by more than expected.

2000, Seattle lost by 23 at Miami as a 3 pt dog. The end of season SRS says Sea turned out about 11 points worse before taking HFA into account, so that line was off, and Seattle ended up being a far worse team than Miami that year.

2001, Seattle won by 3 at Cleveland as a 3 1/2 pt favorite. The end of season SRS says Sea turned out about 1 point worse before taking HFA into account, so they failed to cover by half a point, but the end of season results say that Cleveland probably should have been a slight favorite taking into account HFA, and not Seattle.

2005, Seattle lost by 12 at Jacksonville as a 3 pt dog. The end of season SRS says Sea turned out about 4.5 points better before taking HFA into account (this was the Super Bowl team), but they still lost the game.

2006, Seattle won by 3 at Detroit as a 6 pt favorite. The end of season SRS says Sea turned out about 3 points better before taking HFA into account, so Seattle was overvalued and was not nearly as good a team in 2006 as they were in 2005.

So, Seattle went 4-2 SU and 2-4 ATS in openers in the East. In 2 games, they significantly outperformed their overall season performance and won in blow outs, in two, they underperformed, and in two, they played about in line with the rest of the season, but failed to cover because they were overvalued as a team to start the season.

I am not saying I dislike or have a strong feeling on the Buffalo vs. Seattle game. Only that when I looked deeper, I don't see any strong evidence that Western teams actually play worse in week one when they travel to the East.

There may not be a useful conclusion, but

I put a few sheckles on on the Jets money line (-150) and Dallas giving 6 (straight bets)I will be looking at over/unders soon

 

[plapla]

Atlanta +3

 

[daveR]

Browns / Cowboys under 49. If 'pokes, 34-14. If Browns, 21-17. Short either way.

 

[massraider]

My stupid weekly short money parlay:

Bengals -1

Lions-3

Jacksonville -3

Cardinals -3

Cowboys/Browns Under

Let's see, 4 road favorites, yeah, I'd say that qualifies as stupid.

:X

 

[TheWick]

My stupid weekly short money parlay:Bengals -1Lions-3Jacksonville -3Cardinals -3Cowboys/Browns UnderLet's see, 4 road favorites, yeah, I'd say that qualifies as stupid.

I feel your pain1. Football - New York Jets/Miami Dolphins - total Over 36 (-110) for the entire game held on Sep 7 at 12:00pm [pending] 2. Football - Detroit Lions - spread -3 (-115) for the entire game held on Sep 7 at 12:00pm [pending] 3. Football - Buffalo Bills - spread -1 (-110) for the entire game held on Sep 7 at 12:00pm [pending] 4. Football - Dallas Cowboys/Cleveland Browns - total Under 48½ (-110) for the entire game held on Sep 7 at 3:15pm [pending] 5. Football - Oakland Raiders - spread +3 (-115) for the entire game held on Sep 8 at 9:15pm [pending]

 

[Raider Nation]

Absolutely love the Bills. I think they roll the seahags.

 

[TheWick]

Absolutely love the Bills. I think they roll the seahags.

Bills will sweep the NFC west this year.

 

[Liquid Tension]

Absolutely love the Bills. I think they roll the seahags.

Bills will sweep the NFC west this year.

So I assume you love the Bills and over 8 wins for the year then?

 

[prosopis]

Everyone in here does know there is an "Official NFL Wagering" thread in the FootballGuys Free For All right? There is some good information in that thread. People in there know what they are doing. Honestly, I'm shocked the MODS have not shut this thread down yet. So we now have two threads for NFL Gambling. Just a heads up. Good luck to everyone this weekend.

Notice there are no MarshallPlan arguements in this thread...lets keep it that way.

Exactly.

 

[TheWick]

Absolutely love the Bills. I think they roll the seahags.

Bills will sweep the NFC west this year.

So I assume you love the Bills and over 8 wins for the year then?

I'd like to wait and see Favre and the Jets in action first...but I'd say 8 wins is very likely. I just like a physical teams and think they travel fairly well. @ STL and @ ARI should be W's.SEA - W@ JAC - LOAK - W@ STL - W@ ARI - WbyeSD - L@ MIA - W/LNYJ - W/L@ NE - LCLE - W/L@ KC - WSF - WMIA - W@ NYJ - L@ DEN - W/LNE - LIt'll be close

 

[tribecalledjeff]

Has anybody ever tracked how the Game Predictor put out by Dodds fares if you were to bet games based on it? Most of the predictions are very close to the actual lines. A few that stand out as offering value according to his predictor:

Atl +3 (predictor says atl 23-22)

SF +3 (predictor says 21.6-21.5)

Balt +3 (predictor says balt 22-21)

balt/cinci over 37.5 (predictor says 43)

Every other game is remarkably close to the actual game line. It seems like Dodds predictor likes rookie QBs (and first time starter JTO) a little better than the Vegas line. Is there value here? Does the public overestimate how bad rookie QBs fare?

If this isn't offering too much subscriber content, I'll keep track of this from week to week and post games that the predictor says offer value.

 

[aiverson]

Has anybody ever tracked how the Game Predictor put out by Dodds fares if you were to bet games based on it? Most of the predictions are very close to the actual lines. A few that stand out as offering value according to his predictor:Atl +3 (predictor says atl 23-22)SF +3 (predictor says 21.6-21.5)Balt +3 (predictor says balt 22-21)balt/cinci over 37.5 (predictor says 43)Every other game is remarkably close to the actual game line. It seems like Dodds predictor likes rookie QBs (and first time starter JTO) a little better than the Vegas line. Is there value here? Does the public overestimate how bad rookie QBs fare? If this isn't offering too much subscriber content, I'll keep track of this from week to week and post games that the predictor says offer value.

That would be great. I e-mailed Dodds but received no reply. Let's see how his "top value" plays do...

 

[ceisenhower66]

I might be crazy, but I just took NE at -17 for $50. I am not experienced at all in terms of the trends and all of that, so I just took this one for face value. Sure there are negatives against NE (Brady is rusty, Welker hurt, etc.), but I just cannot fathom how KC is even going to put 14 points against one of the best defenses in the NFL (8 in the box on LJ, Croyle isn't going to beat them), and I am thinking NE is going to score at least 31. Maybe Moss will catch 3 TDs. We'll see...

That said, KC will probably jump out to a 10 point lead...

 

[massraider]

I might be crazy, but I just took NE at -17 for $50. I am not experienced at all in terms of the trends and all of that, so I just took this one for face value. Sure there are negatives against NE (Brady is rusty, Welker hurt, etc.), but I just cannot fathom how KC is even going to put 14 points against one of the best defenses in the NFL (8 in the box on LJ, Croyle isn't going to beat them), and I am thinking NE is going to score at least 31. Maybe Moss will catch 3 TDs. We'll see...That said, KC will probably jump out to a 10 point lead...

One thing about this game, I was unsure about the weather. Did a 6 team parlay:JetsLionsBengalsCowboysCardinalsColts50 to win 1700.

 

[Angry Beavers]

Mia +3

Houston +6.5

Buf -1.5

 

[aiverson]

Here's what I had posted on my site:

Detroit

Buffalo

Carolina

Philly (w/ a lean towards the Under)

Dal/Cle Under

First a word on a few of the reasons why I like Carolina + here.

* Carolina is a very good road dog towards the beginning of the season - since 2002 in week 1-7 of the season, Carolina is 13-3 ATS, including 3-0 last season.

* Carolina is very good at traveling to the West coast, and most games go over -though it has been 4 seasons since Carolina last made the trip west, they have gone 9-1 ATS when traveling to play either the Chargers, the Raiders, the Niners or the Seahawks.

* With regard to the total in this game, in Carolina's West coast trips, the Over has gone 7-3. This conflicts with the fact that as a road dog in the early part of the season, the Under has gone 13-4, including 3-0 last year and 2-1 the year prior.

Second, a few of the reasons why I like Buffalo.

* When a West Coast team (SD, Sea, Oak, SF) travels to the East Coast (AFC East, NFC East) in the early part of the season as a Dog, they are a mere 2-11 SU since 2002. In these games, the Over has gone 9-4.

* Seattle is 1-10 ATS overall vs. the AFC East in the last 10 years. In their games, the Over has gone 9-2.

* Giving the over a good look here could be wise but is not the top play in this game.

A few reasons why I like the Dallas/Cleveland Under

* In week 1 when the home team in a dog and there is a high total (over 45), the Under has gone 6-1 since 2002 and 10-1 since 1989.

* Ignoring that the home team is a dog, Week 1 games w/ totals over 45 have produced Unders at a tune of 14-4 since 2002.

A few reasons why I like Philly and lean towards the Under

* St. Louis is 5-12-1 ATS when playing the NFC East, including 1-5 ATS since 2002, losing by an avg of 10 points and failing to cover by an avg of 7 points.

* In addition, the Under in these games has gone 5-1, falling under the posted total by an avg of 7 points.

* St. Louis is 1-5 ATS in it's Week 1 matchups since 2002, and and the Under is 5-1. The only two games under Linehan both went under.

 

[ceisenhower66]

One thing about this game, I was unsure about the weather. Did a 6 team parlay:JetsLionsBengalsCowboysCardinalsColts50 to win 1700.

I have the same concerns about the weather...I like your picks, by the way...I was looking at all of those. Good luck.

 

[Bills_Fan11]

Browns +5.5 - I'll admit to not know what to expect from the Browns this season, but it's not often that a non-terrible team in the NFL gets this many points at home against a team other than NE. It seems like there's an "expectations backlash" against Cleveland recently after their bandwagon being full in July - now after a lousy preseason it seems so fashionable to call them overrated to the point where I don't think they're overrated anymore. I like the Cowboys talent like everyone else, but would also like to see them do something against a decent passing game before I crown them conference champs.

Bills -1 - Others have covered this one pretty well.

Packers -2.5 - I like this one not only because GB is good and home, but it's insanely easy for them to play the "no respect" card after their offseason; and unlike the Browns, nobody is shying away from the Vikings bandwagon. I'd expect Tavaris Jackson on the road to neutralize the Rodgers inexperience factor somewhat.

 

[AB in DC]

9/7 1:00 ET Cincinnati -1.5 At Baltimore 38 (This is a gimme)

Avoid this game as if your life depended on it. NOTHING about these two teams are a gimme.Never put money on a game that will be decided by which team is the least incompetent.

When you have Palmer with his WRs on one side and a rookie QB with next to nothing on the other, it's a gimme.Believe me, I'm anything but a Bengals fan, but this game, "out of the shoots-meaning week one," is a gimme.

The Bengals are going to score. Do you really think the Ravens are capable of playing from behind?

We don't even know if they will be capable of moving the ball.

1.5 points is a gimme.

 

[Billy Bats]

Kansas City +16Philly -7.5New Orleans -3

How you doin??

 

[tribecalledjeff]

Has anybody ever tracked how the Game Predictor put out by Dodds fares if you were to bet games based on it? Most of the predictions are very close to the actual lines. A few that stand out as offering value according to his predictor:Atl +3 (predictor says atl 23-22)SF +3 (predictor says 21.6-21.5)Balt +3 (predictor says balt 22-21)balt/cinci over 37.5 (predictor says 43)Every other game is remarkably close to the actual game line. It seems like Dodds predictor likes rookie QBs (and first time starter JTO) a little better than the Vegas line. Is there value here? Does the public overestimate how bad rookie QBs fare? If this isn't offering too much subscriber content, I'll keep track of this from week to week and post games that the predictor says offer value.

Atlanta +3 - WinSF +3 - in processBalt +3 - WinBalt/Cinci O - Loss2-1 so far. I'll edit later with SF result.

 

[Ghost Rider]

The Chargers were 7-1 against the spread at home last year. In games where they were double digit favorites they went 5-1 against the spread. The trend is your friend.

Not that I am saying take the Panthers, but Carolina has been a much better road team than home team the last few years. Just saying...And I cannot imagine touching that Bengals/Ravens game. Baltimore is starting a rookie QB and are crappy, and the Bengals are, well, the Bengals, and I cannot imagine taking them on the road and laying points.

 

[Dragon1952]

The Chargers were 7-1 against the spread at home last year. In games where they were double digit favorites they went 5-1 against the spread. The trend is your friend.

Yeah, I know. They are also 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. And going back to 2004, they are 11-1 ATS their last 12 games as a favorite of between 9-11 pts. However, Jake Delhomme has never been a 10 pt dog as a starter for the Panthers (which is what the line started out as). The Chargers were also just 1-4 SU and ATS in their first 4 games last year and averaged just 17 pts per game. Tomlinson gets no pre-season reps, and as he gets older, I think it takes him awhile to get started (like last year). Merriman is not 100%...probably not even 75%, Marcus McNeil isn't 100% and probably won't even start, Gates probably isn't 100% and hasn't played much, Tomlinson had zero reps in pre-season, Jackson has been hampered by injuries and has not got the full benefit of pre-season. I think it all adds up to another potential slow start. Maybe not losing, but probably not covering 9 and 10 pt spreads vs decent teams either. Carolina started 2-1 both SU and ATS last year with Delhomme as the starter and was averaging around 24 pts per game.

Talk about guys comming off of injuries, Delhomme is comming off Tommy John Surgery for petes sake. Oh and the small fact Carolinas main playmaker Steve Smith happens to be out? On the road in front of a sell out? I'll give the 10 no problem.

Ooops! :IBTL:

 

[sheerterror]

Teasing Colts -3/Under 50 tonight.

 

[Raider Nation]

Teasing Colts -3/Under 50 tonight.

On the opposite side, though mine is a parlay.CHI +10.5Over 43

 

[Manster]

won a straight bet on the g-men. then won a 4 team parlay today. NO, Jets, Philly, and the COWBOYS!!!!

 

[sheerterror]

Teasing Colts -3/Under 50 tonight.

On the opposite side, though mine is a parlay.CHI +10.5Over 43

I don't anticipate the Bears being able to score more than about 10 tonight - and I don't think the Colts get more than 21-24 with their injuries along the offensive line. Good luck.

 

[Raider Nation]

Teasing Colts -3/Under 50 tonight.

On the opposite side, though mine is a parlay.CHI +10.5Over 43

I don't anticipate the Bears being able to score more than about 10 tonight - and I don't think the Colts get more than 21-24 with their injuries along the offensive line. Good luck.

Yeah, we see this completely differently. I think Orton will surprise a lot of people this year with his effectiveness.Good luck to you also. At least one of us will likely be happy.

 

[massraider]

Teasing Colts -3/Under 50 tonight.

On the opposite side, though mine is a parlay.CHI +10.5Over 43

I don't anticipate the Bears being able to score more than about 10 tonight - and I don't think the Colts get more than 21-24 with their injuries along the offensive line. Good luck.

Yeah, we see this completely differently. I think Orton will surprise a lot of people this year with his effectiveness.Good luck to you also. At least one of us will likely be happy.

I was just talking to my buddy about this game, and he was asking if I like the Colts. Between the questions about Manning's health, a brand new center, a new QB for the Bears, and the presence of Devin Hester, I wanted no part of this game.

 

[sheerterror]

Teasing Colts -3/Under 50 tonight.

On the opposite side, though mine is a parlay.CHI +10.5Over 43

I don't anticipate the Bears being able to score more than about 10 tonight - and I don't think the Colts get more than 21-24 with their injuries along the offensive line. Good luck.

Yeah, we see this completely differently. I think Orton will surprise a lot of people this year with his effectiveness.Good luck to you also. At least one of us will likely be happy.

...Good chance for both of us...we'll call it a 27-20 Indy final?

 

[sheerterror]

Teasing Colts -3/Under 50 tonight.

On the opposite side, though mine is a parlay.CHI +10.5Over 43

I don't anticipate the Bears being able to score more than about 10 tonight - and I don't think the Colts get more than 21-24 with their injuries along the offensive line. Good luck.

Yeah, we see this completely differently. I think Orton will surprise a lot of people this year with his effectiveness.Good luck to you also. At least one of us will likely be happy.

I was just talking to my buddy about this game, and he was asking if I like the Colts. Between the questions about Manning's health, a brand new center, a new QB for the Bears, and the presence of Devin Hester, I wanted no part of this game.

The factors regarding the Colts were enough for me to back off of the 10pt spread but I don't worry too much about Hester. Obviously he's always a threat to break one, but I have faith that Dungy is not as dumb as Shanahan was last year and will not give him too many opportunities to return many kicks.

 

[TheWick]

Well a chase play on the cowboys -6 saved my sunday...how did everyone do? I'll make the week 2 thread tomorrow.

 

[sheerterror]

Teasing Colts -3/Under 50 tonight.

On the opposite side, though mine is a parlay.CHI +10.5Over 43

I don't anticipate the Bears being able to score more than about 10 tonight - and I don't think the Colts get more than 21-24 with their injuries along the offensive line. Good luck.

I couldn't have been any more wrong about this game. Either the Colts defense is terrible, or the Bears are actually going to be much better than most people thought.

 

[massraider]

It looks like several of you are on my early plays. I'm new here, and I know past results do not guarantee future performance, but if you'd like to check out how I've done the last several years as well as understand how I cap games: http://sharpfootballanalysis.blogspot.com/...ason-recap.html

As for this week, two plays I can share are: Buffalo and Carolina

First a word on a few of the reasons why I like Carolina + here.

(note, I do all my own research and analysis, so if you have any question as to the accuracy of these trends and information, let me know and I will be glad to double check)

* Carolina is a very good road dog towards the beginning of the season - since 2002 in week 1-7 of the season, Carolina is 13-3 ATS, including 3-0 last season.

* Carolina is very good at traveling to the West coast, and most games go over - though it has been 4 seasons since Carolina last made the trip west, they have gone 9-1 ATS when traveling to play either the Chargers, the Raiders, the Niners or the Seahawks.

* With regard to the total in this game, in Carolina's West coast trips, the Over has gone 7-3. This conflicts with the fact that as a road dog in the early part of the season, the Under has gone 13-4, including 3-0 last year and 2-1 the year prior.

Second, a few of the reasons why I like Buffalo.

* When a West Coast team (SD, Sea, Oak, SF) travels to the East Coast (AFC East, NFC East) in the early part of the season as a Dog, they are a mere 2-11 SU since 2002. In these games, the Over has gone 9-4.

* Seattle is 1-10 ATS overall vs. the AFC East in the last 10 years. In their games, the Over has gone 9-2.

* Giving the over a good look here could be wise but is not the top play in this game.

This season I will update my own website w/ my picks and plays first, and will then post here as I make the messageboard rounds. I'll be back w/ some more plays.

It really looks like we have a sharp group over here, and I'm sure we will be able to help each other out this season. Good luck to everyone.

Nice calls, brother, I have bookmarked your blog. Keep on keepin' on.

 

[aiverson]

It looks like several of you are on my early plays. I'm new here, and I know past results do not guarantee future performance, but if you'd like to check out how I've done the last several years as well as understand how I cap games: http://sharpfootballanalysis.blogspot.com/...ason-recap.html

As for this week, two plays I can share are: Buffalo and Carolina

First a word on a few of the reasons why I like Carolina + here.

(note, I do all my own research and analysis, so if you have any question as to the accuracy of these trends and information, let me know and I will be glad to double check)

* Carolina is a very good road dog towards the beginning of the season - since 2002 in week 1-7 of the season, Carolina is 13-3 ATS, including 3-0 last season.

* Carolina is very good at traveling to the West coast, and most games go over - though it has been 4 seasons since Carolina last made the trip west, they have gone 9-1 ATS when traveling to play either the Chargers, the Raiders, the Niners or the Seahawks.

* With regard to the total in this game, in Carolina's West coast trips, the Over has gone 7-3. This conflicts with the fact that as a road dog in the early part of the season, the Under has gone 13-4, including 3-0 last year and 2-1 the year prior.

Second, a few of the reasons why I like Buffalo.

* When a West Coast team (SD, Sea, Oak, SF) travels to the East Coast (AFC East, NFC East) in the early part of the season as a Dog, they are a mere 2-11 SU since 2002. In these games, the Over has gone 9-4.

* Seattle is 1-10 ATS overall vs. the AFC East in the last 10 years. In their games, the Over has gone 9-2.

* Giving the over a good look here could be wise but is not the top play in this game.

This season I will update my own website w/ my picks and plays first, and will then post here as I make the messageboard rounds. I'll be back w/ some more plays.

It really looks like we have a sharp group over here, and I'm sure we will be able to help each other out this season. Good luck to everyone.

Nice calls, brother, I have bookmarked your blog. Keep on keepin' on.

Thanks. I hope you got down on the other plays as well. I went 7-1 this weekend in the posted plays. Definitely check the blog, but the e-mail sign-up will be the fastest way to get the plays. I'm planning on doing e-mails, then blog, then messageboards. I post at many different messageboards, but it's hard to get to all of them. But this thread was a solid one for week 1, so I'm sure I'll make it a weekly stop!

 

[TheWick]

week 2 thread is up

 

[Jetznut674]

congrats on great start to the season - who do you guys like in tonights games? I did ok yesterday - wondering if I should just quit while Im ahead for week 1 and wait til week 2....

 

[TheWick]

I like the under 20.5 for the first half of the OAK DEN game tonight. D's come out hummin and the run games don't start wearing them down til the second half.

 

[TheWick]

Any action going tonight?

 

[sheerterror]

Trying my hand with another teaser:

3 team/11.5pt: GB +9 Oak +14.5 and u52 Den/Oak

 

[Angry Beavers]

Ryan Grant to go UNDER 20.5 carries ( now at -130)

Grant has not played the entire preseason.

It has been stated that he will be splitting time with Jackson;

Grant has had limited work during the week and I have serious questions about his being in "game" shape and ability to carry 20 times tonight.

I see alot of screens and dumpoffs to the backs/Te's to offset Minny's rush D;

I see GB passing a lot early to try to "loosen" up the Minny D line;

Bottom Line:

I unloaded 6 units to make 4.6 units; I am honestly stepping out large on this one.

GLTA

 

[Gold Plated Nails]

The Chargers were 7-1 against the spread at home last year. In games where they were double digit favorites they went 5-1 against the spread. The trend is your friend.

Yeah, I know. They are also 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. And going back to 2004, they are 11-1 ATS their last 12 games as a favorite of between 9-11 pts. However, Jake Delhomme has never been a 10 pt dog as a starter for the Panthers (which is what the line started out as). The Chargers were also just 1-4 SU and ATS in their first 4 games last year and averaged just 17 pts per game. Tomlinson gets no pre-season reps, and as he gets older, I think it takes him awhile to get started (like last year). Merriman is not 100%...probably not even 75%, Marcus McNeil isn't 100% and probably won't even start, Gates probably isn't 100% and hasn't played much, Tomlinson had zero reps in pre-season, Jackson has been hampered by injuries and has not got the full benefit of pre-season. I think it all adds up to another potential slow start. Maybe not losing, but probably not covering 9 and 10 pt spreads vs decent teams either. Carolina started 2-1 both SU and ATS last year with Delhomme as the starter and was averaging around 24 pts per game.

Talk about guys comming off of injuries, Delhomme is comming off Tommy John Surgery for petes sake. Oh and the small fact Carolinas main playmaker Steve Smith happens to be out? On the road in front of a sell out? I'll give the 10 no problem.

Ooops!

win some and lose some. The Panthers looked great, especially the injured Delhomme on the 2 minute drill drive, tip the cap.

 

[crewmember]

Ryan Grant to go UNDER 20.5 carries ( now at -130)Grant has not played the entire preseason.It has been stated that he will be splitting time with Jackson;Grant has had limited work during the week and I have serious questions about his being in "game" shape and ability to carry 20 times tonight. I see alot of screens and dumpoffs to the backs/Te's to offset Minny's rush D;I see GB passing a lot early to try to "loosen" up the Minny D line;Bottom Line:I unloaded 6 units to make 4.6 units; I am honestly stepping out large on this one.GLTA

great bet! with minnies rush d and pass d, and grants current status. Wish I could bet this, what site you get it, i only money in sportsbook and betdsi, and not seeing itfrom min/gb game thread...From Rotoworld:ESPN's Wendy Nix reports that Ryan Grant will "split time" in the Packers' backfield on Monday night against Minnesota.Grant claims he's "100%," but coach Mike McCarthy says Grant has experienced lingering soreness and his reps will be "monitored closely." In a matchup against the NFC's top run defense, Grant could struggle for production on limited carries. It sounds like Brandon Jackson will see 10+ touchesI fear a McGahee type absence and may actually swap Grant out for Jackson....but either way, I'm not too excited.

 

[Dragon1952]

The Chargers were 7-1 against the spread at home last year. In games where they were double digit favorites they went 5-1 against the spread. The trend is your friend.

Yeah, I know. They are also 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. And going back to 2004, they are 11-1 ATS their last 12 games as a favorite of between 9-11 pts. However, Jake Delhomme has never been a 10 pt dog as a starter for the Panthers (which is what the line started out as). The Chargers were also just 1-4 SU and ATS in their first 4 games last year and averaged just 17 pts per game. Tomlinson gets no pre-season reps, and as he gets older, I think it takes him awhile to get started (like last year). Merriman is not 100%...probably not even 75%, Marcus McNeil isn't 100% and probably won't even start, Gates probably isn't 100% and hasn't played much, Tomlinson had zero reps in pre-season, Jackson has been hampered by injuries and has not got the full benefit of pre-season. I think it all adds up to another potential slow start. Maybe not losing, but probably not covering 9 and 10 pt spreads vs decent teams either. Carolina started 2-1 both SU and ATS last year with Delhomme as the starter and was averaging around 24 pts per game.

Talk about guys comming off of injuries, Delhomme is comming off Tommy John Surgery for petes sake. Oh and the small fact Carolinas main playmaker Steve Smith happens to be out? On the road in front of a sell out? I'll give the 10 no problem.

Ooops!

win some and lose some. The Panthers looked great, especially the injured Delhomme on the 2 minute drill drive, tip the cap.

Sorry....I'm a pretty pathetic Charger fan, huh. Seriously, I didn't expect them to lose. My wife still isn't speaking to me :(

 

[Angry Beavers]

Ryan Grant to go UNDER 20.5 carries ( now at -130)Grant has not played the entire preseason.It has been stated that he will be splitting time with Jackson;Grant has had limited work during the week and I have serious questions about his being in "game" shape and ability to carry 20 times tonight. I see alot of screens and dumpoffs to the backs/Te's to offset Minny's rush D;I see GB passing a lot early to try to "loosen" up the Minny D line;Bottom Line:I unloaded 6 units to make 4.6 units; I am honestly stepping out large on this one.GLTA

 

[Liquid Tension]

Well a chase play on the cowboys -6 saved my sunday...how did everyone do? I'll make the week 2 thread tomorrow.

I was 3-0 on the games I posted here. Anything that is not posted doesn't really matter, but I was 4-2 on some other small bets NOT POSTED