*** Official 2012-13 Hot Stove Thread (2 Viewers)

[dparker713]

There is zero reason to believe that he will sustain his rate from last season going forward.

Bayes is backflipping in his grave right now.

Thats rich. Steamer, Bill James and Oliver all project Chris Carter with a BB% of no greater than 11.4% and a K rate of atleast 25.9%. Would seem the math is on my side.

Those aren't unreasonable projections. But they also don't preclude a walk-rate against lefties in the 18-20% range. Especially if they're going to run him out there every day against righties.From Houston's perspective, he's not a great fit with Pena and Wallace there, he's going to be a mess in LF. But given that they're not going anywhere in the next couple years, he's obviously more valuable than Lowrie.

An 18% walk rate from one side coupled with a 7% walk rate from the other, you consider that reasonable? And thats the most favorable I can realistically make the numbers.

 

[Eephus]

Since they can't seem to make up their minds about Francisco Liriano, the Pirates did the next best thing and signed Jonathan Sanchez to a minor league deal. I guess Sanchez can't possibly be worse than last year and stay in professional baseball.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

There is zero reason to believe that he will sustain his rate from last season going forward.

Bayes is backflipping in his grave right now.

Thats rich. Steamer, Bill James and Oliver all project Chris Carter with a BB% of no greater than 11.4% and a K rate of atleast 25.9%. Would seem the math is on my side.

Those aren't unreasonable projections. But they also don't preclude a walk-rate against lefties in the 18-20% range. Especially if they're going to run him out there every day against righties.From Houston's perspective, he's not a great fit with Pena and Wallace there, he's going to be a mess in LF. But given that they're not going anywhere in the next couple years, he's obviously more valuable than Lowrie.

obviously = possibly

From the Astros perspective, who need to do a massive rebuild, Carter is obviously more valuable than Lowrie.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

There is zero reason to believe that he will sustain his rate from last season going forward.

Bayes is backflipping in his grave right now.

Thats rich. Steamer, Bill James and Oliver all project Chris Carter with a BB% of no greater than 11.4% and a K rate of atleast 25.9%. Would seem the math is on my side.

Those aren't unreasonable projections. But they also don't preclude a walk-rate against lefties in the 18-20% range. Especially if they're going to run him out there every day against righties.From Houston's perspective, he's not a great fit with Pena and Wallace there, he's going to be a mess in LF. But given that they're not going anywhere in the next couple years, he's obviously more valuable than Lowrie.

An 18% walk rate from one side coupled with a 7% walk rate from the other, you consider that reasonable? And thats the most favorable I can realistically make the numbers.

Let me back this up:Kevin Youkilis has great walk rates in the minors. Better than Carter. By my count, he had an 18.7% BB rate across all levels.His rookie year in 2004, in which he played 72 games, his walk rate was 13.4%. Very strong for any major league player, and especially strong for a rookie.For 2005, would you think that there was "zero reason" that he could sustain those levels going forward? Was it just a complete fluke that his walk rates for the following years were 14.7% (injured), 13.4%, 12.3%, 10%, 13.1%, 13.3%, etc. Was that magic?Are O-Swing% rates completely arbitrary too?

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Since they can't seem to make up their minds about Francisco Liriano, the Pirates did the next best thing and signed Jonathan Sanchez to a minor league deal. I guess Sanchez can't possibly be worse than last year and stay in professional baseball.

Ball four, take your base!

 

[Eephus]

There is zero reason to believe that he will sustain his rate from last season going forward.

Bayes is backflipping in his grave right now.

Thats rich. Steamer, Bill James and Oliver all project Chris Carter with a BB% of no greater than 11.4% and a K rate of atleast 25.9%. Would seem the math is on my side.

Those aren't unreasonable projections. But they also don't preclude a walk-rate against lefties in the 18-20% range. Especially if they're going to run him out there every day against righties.From Houston's perspective, he's not a great fit with Pena and Wallace there, he's going to be a mess in LF. But given that they're not going anywhere in the next couple years, he's obviously more valuable than Lowrie.

obviously = possibly

From the Astros perspective, who need to do a massive rebuild, Carter is obviously more valuable than Lowrie.

The Astros don't have a SS or 3B. Either position is harder to fill than half of a DH slot. I get that they're rebuilding and a 28 year old injury-prone IF won't be a part of the Astros World Series parade. But it remains to be seen whether Carter can sustain his 2012 level of production.Carter was in the Oaklands' system for three years. The A's aren't an organization who've underestimated the value of three true outcome bats like Carter's. I give Beane enough credit to figure he wouldn't make a panic move to fill the SS gap in early February. If he thinks Carter and Peacock are expendable, they probably are.

 

[Captain Hook]

The Astros don't have a SS or 3B. Either position is harder to fill than half of a DH slot.

Tyler Greene will play shortstop (assuming Marwin Gonzalez who might have a better glove doesn't go crazy in spring training) and put up decent numbers - and likely play a minimum of 1/3 more games than LowrieBesides they have their #1 draft pick from last year who is a very good shortstop on the way

 

[Eephus]

The Astros don't have a SS or 3B. Either position is harder to fill than half of a DH slot.

Tyler Greene will play shortstop (assuming Marwin Gonzalez who might have a better glove doesn't go crazy in spring training) and put up decent numbers - and likely play a minimum of 1/3 more games than LowrieBesides they have their #1 draft pick from last year who is a very good shortstop on the way

But isn't he only 18 or 19?

Two years of Lowrie would have kept the seat warm for Correa until he's ready in 2015. I understand what the Astros doing but this is just one more reason I'm happy I don't live in Houston.

 

[dparker713]

There is zero reason to believe that he will sustain his rate from last season going forward.

Bayes is backflipping in his grave right now.

Thats rich. Steamer, Bill James and Oliver all project Chris Carter with a BB% of no greater than 11.4% and a K rate of atleast 25.9%. Would seem the math is on my side.

Those aren't unreasonable projections. But they also don't preclude a walk-rate against lefties in the 18-20% range. Especially if they're going to run him out there every day against righties.From Houston's perspective, he's not a great fit with Pena and Wallace there, he's going to be a mess in LF. But given that they're not going anywhere in the next couple years, he's obviously more valuable than Lowrie.

An 18% walk rate from one side coupled with a 7% walk rate from the other, you consider that reasonable? And thats the most favorable I can realistically make the numbers.

Let me back this up:Kevin Youkilis has great walk rates in the minors. Better than Carter. By my count, he had an 18.7% BB rate across all levels.His rookie year in 2004, in which he played 72 games, his walk rate was 13.4%. Very strong for any major league player, and especially strong for a rookie.For 2005, would you think that there was "zero reason" that he could sustain those levels going forward? Was it just a complete fluke that his walk rates for the following years were 14.7% (injured), 13.4%, 12.3%, 10%, 13.1%, 13.3%, etc. Was that magic?Are O-Swing% rates completely arbitrary too?

I'd love to give you a whole primer on sabermetrics, but I already have a full time job.

 

[Captain Hook]

The Astros don't have a SS or 3B. Either position is harder to fill than half of a DH slot.

Tyler Greene will play shortstop (assuming Marwin Gonzalez who might have a better glove doesn't go crazy in spring training) and put up decent numbers - and likely play a minimum of 1/3 more games than LowrieBesides they have their #1 draft pick from last year who is a very good shortstop on the way

But isn't he only 18 or 19?

18 now ... will be 19 in September but so what?He will be in Houston in two years (if not sooner)

 

[Eephus]

The Astros don't have a SS or 3B. Either position is harder to fill than half of a DH slot.

Tyler Greene will play shortstop (assuming Marwin Gonzalez who might have a better glove doesn't go crazy in spring training) and put up decent numbers - and likely play a minimum of 1/3 more games than LowrieBesides they have their #1 draft pick from last year who is a very good shortstop on the way

But isn't he only 18 or 19?

18 now ... will be 19 in September but so what?He will be in Houston in two years (if not sooner)

I'm calling June 2015 at the earliest. He only has 200 professional PAs. The Astros seem to be working to a long planning horizon. They have no reason to rush Correa.

 

[guru_007]

Two years of Lowrie would have kept the seat warm for Correa until he's ready in 2015. I understand what the Astros doing but this is just one more reason I'm happy I don't live in Houston.

Plenty of reasonably priced seats will be available all year long!and next yearand the next year.....

 

[Frostillicus]

There is zero reason to believe that he will sustain his rate from last season going forward.

Bayes is backflipping in his grave right now.

Thats rich. Steamer, Bill James and Oliver all project Chris Carter with a BB% of no greater than 11.4% and a K rate of atleast 25.9%. Would seem the math is on my side.

Those aren't unreasonable projections. But they also don't preclude a walk-rate against lefties in the 18-20% range. Especially if they're going to run him out there every day against righties.From Houston's perspective, he's not a great fit with Pena and Wallace there, he's going to be a mess in LF. But given that they're not going anywhere in the next couple years, he's obviously more valuable than Lowrie.

An 18% walk rate from one side coupled with a 7% walk rate from the other, you consider that reasonable? And thats the most favorable I can realistically make the numbers.

Let me back this up:Kevin Youkilis has great walk rates in the minors. Better than Carter. By my count, he had an 18.7% BB rate across all levels.His rookie year in 2004, in which he played 72 games, his walk rate was 13.4%. Very strong for any major league player, and especially strong for a rookie.For 2005, would you think that there was "zero reason" that he could sustain those levels going forward? Was it just a complete fluke that his walk rates for the following years were 14.7% (injured), 13.4%, 12.3%, 10%, 13.1%, 13.3%, etc. Was that magic?Are O-Swing% rates completely arbitrary too?

I'd love to give you a whole primer on sabermetrics, but I already have a full time job.

I'm pretty sure GPJ understands advanced stats, guy.

 

[shadyridr]

Why does Todd Helton buy lottery tickets?

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Two years of Lowrie would have kept the seat warm for Correa until he's ready in 2015. I understand what the Astros doing but this is just one more reason I'm happy I don't live in Houston.

Plenty of reasonably priced seats will be available all year long!and next yearand the next year.....

You have to do a cost/benefit analysis and consider going to the game for $2 a ticket just for the free air conditioning. They can hang a sign on the stadium saying: AIR CONDITIONED BAR INSIDE!People will pay $2 to see that.

 

[Eephus]

Two years of Lowrie would have kept the seat warm for Correa until he's ready in 2015. I understand what the Astros doing but this is just one more reason I'm happy I don't live in Houston.

Plenty of reasonably priced seats will be available all year long!and next yearand the next year.....

You have to do a cost/benefit analysis and consider going to the game for $2 a ticket just for the free air conditioning. They can hang a sign on the stadium saying: AIR CONDITIONED BAR INSIDE!People will pay $2 to see that.

Where else are you going to find a Justin Maxwell bobblehead?

 

[TobiasFunke]

Mariners re-upping with Felix for 7/175.

 

[Eephus]

Mariners re-upping with Felix for 7/175.

...and converting him to a DH

 

[Wrigley]

Mariners re-upping with Felix for 7/175.

Um, why do this?

 

[TobiasFunke]

Mariners re-upping with Felix for 7/175.

Um, why do this?

Without this deal he's signed for two more years at around $21 per, then he hits the open market after his age 28 season. If he pitches the next two years at a level remotely close to where he's currently pitching, he'd probably cost $30+ million per and will get 6+ years. Zach Greinke, who is good but is no Felix, just got six years at 24.5 per after his age 28 season. So basically they got Felix for $25 million per for 5 years when he gets to what would be his free agency, which is probably under market for AAV and years if he doesn't get hurt. In exchange they give him an extra $8 million over the next two years and security if he does get hurt or falls off a cliff.Makes sense if he's their long-term plan. Only question in my mind is whether they'd be better off with the massive haul of prospects they'd get for dealing him to a contender this summer. But from what I hear their fans would revolt if they did that.

 

[Wrigley]

Mariners re-upping with Felix for 7/175.

Um, why do this?

Without this deal he's signed for two more years at around $21 per, then he hits the open market after his age 28 season. If he pitches the next two years at a level remotely close to where he's currently pitching, he'd probably cost $30+ million per and will get 6+ years. Zach Greinke, who is good but is no Felix, just got six years at 24.5 per after his age 28 season. So basically they got Felix for $25 million per for 5 years, which is probably under market for AAV and years if he doesn't get hurt. In exchange they give him an extra $8 million over the next two years and security if he does get hurt or falls off a cliff.Makes sense if he's their long-term plan. Only question in my mind is whether they'd be better off with the massive haul of prospects they'd get for dealing him to a contender this summer. But from what I hear their fans would revolt if they did that.

And if he blows out his arm next year? 7 years is way to long for a pitcher......any pitcher. They will end up regretting this contract.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Mariners re-upping with Felix for 7/175.

Um, why do this?

Without this deal he's signed for two more years at around $21 per, then he hits the open market after his age 28 season. If he pitches the next two years at a level remotely close to where he's currently pitching, he'd probably cost $30+ million per and will get 6+ years. Zach Greinke, who is good but is no Felix, just got six years at 24.5 per after his age 28 season. So basically they got Felix for $25 million per for 5 years, which is probably under market for AAV and years if he doesn't get hurt. In exchange they give him an extra $8 million over the next two years and security if he does get hurt or falls off a cliff.Makes sense if he's their long-term plan. Only question in my mind is whether they'd be better off with the massive haul of prospects they'd get for dealing him to a contender this summer. But from what I hear their fans would revolt if they did that.

And if he blows out his arm next year? 7 years is way to long for a pitcher......any pitcher. They will end up regretting this contract.

It's a Flacco-esque situation. You've either got to to overpay, or he's going to walk. Neither is very appealing. I guess they could let him hit the open market, but then you risk not being able to match, or Felix leaving (some) money on the table to go elsewhere.

 

[TobiasFunke]

Mariners re-upping with Felix for 7/175.

Um, why do this?

Without this deal he's signed for two more years at around $21 per, then he hits the open market after his age 28 season. If he pitches the next two years at a level remotely close to where he's currently pitching, he'd probably cost $30+ million per and will get 6+ years. Zach Greinke, who is good but is no Felix, just got six years at 24.5 per after his age 28 season. So basically they got Felix for $25 million per for 5 years, which is probably under market for AAV and years if he doesn't get hurt. In exchange they give him an extra $8 million over the next two years and security if he does get hurt or falls off a cliff.

Makes sense if he's their long-term plan. Only question in my mind is whether they'd be better off with the massive haul of prospects they'd get for dealing him to a contender this summer. But from what I hear their fans would revolt if they did that.

And if he blows out his arm next year? 7 years is way to long for a pitcher......any pitcher.

They will end up regretting this contract.

Yup, that's the risk. In exchange they get him for below market from 2015-2019 if he doesn't. Can't get a guy below market price without some kind of risk. And as ridiculous as it sounds, 5 years at $25 per starting in 2015 is below market for a Felix-level pitcher.I hear you on pitchers. My team is eventually gonna have to choose between throwing $300 million or more at one of two phenoms in a couple years, and I hope to God they pick the position player. But if there's any pitcher worth a deal like that right now, it's Felix along with maybe Kershaw and Price. Still has peak years left and durable as they come.

ETA: Maybe not $300 million

 

[Eephus]

Mariners re-upping with Felix for 7/175.

Um, why do this?

Without this deal he's signed for two more years at around $21 per, then he hits the open market after his age 28 season. If he pitches the next two years at a level remotely close to where he's currently pitching, he'd probably cost $30+ million per and will get 6+ years. Zach Greinke, who is good but is no Felix, just got six years at 24.5 per after his age 28 season. So basically they got Felix for $25 million per for 5 years, which is probably under market for AAV and years if he doesn't get hurt. In exchange they give him an extra $8 million over the next two years and security if he does get hurt or falls off a cliff.Makes sense if he's their long-term plan. Only question in my mind is whether they'd be better off with the massive haul of prospects they'd get for dealing him to a contender this summer. But from what I hear their fans would revolt if they did that.

This is a good analysis. I think Hernandez doesn't have some of the question marks that deals like Greinke, CC and Zito came with. He's closer to Cain or Weaver but even they come with significant risks. Seven years is just a long time for a pitcher.

 

[Eephus]

What's the longest that teams can get contracts insured for? Three years?

I've read MLB disability insurance typically covers the first three years of a contract but there have also been numerous articles speculating about the Yankees' collecting on A-rod's policy. His last extension was five seasons ago.

 

[guru_007]

Heard today that 20+ players are being paid more in 2013 than your Houston AstrosIncluding one Barry Zito SF has three pitchers on this list ffs.

 

[Eephus]

Heard today that 20+ players are being paid more in 2013 than your Houston AstrosIncluding one Barry Zito SF has three pitchers on this list ffs.

Zito has two more World Series rings than the Astros 40 man roster.

 

[Daywalker]

Heard today that 20+ players are being paid more in 2013 than your Houston AstrosIncluding one Barry Zito SF has three pitchers on this list ffs.

Zito has two more World Series rings than the Astros 40 man roster.

A marvel that S.F. fans are in a position now to never have to regret that signing. Don't think anyone would change a thing.

 

[shadyridr]

Imo its a move the Ms have to makes and they can still trade him for prospects (unless he got a no trade clause or becomes a 10-5 guy)

 

[Eephus]

Imo its a move the Ms have to makes and they can still trade him for prospects (unless he got a no trade clause or becomes a 10-5 guy)

He'll be 5/10 guy just under three years from now.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Heard today that 20+ players are being paid more in 2013 than your Houston AstrosIncluding one Barry Zito SF has three pitchers on this list ffs.

Zito has two more World Series rings than the Astros 40 man roster.

A marvel that S.F. fans are in a position now to never have to regret that signing. Don't think anyone would change a thing.

From a results-oriented perspective, it's fine. From a team-building perspective, it still was a colossal mistake, and not an unforeseeable one. O.co and some good fortune were masking a whole world of hurt re: Zito's actual skills.I'm pretty sure most Giants fans would rather that money was spent on someone else who, to date, has been pretty terrible.

 

[Eephus]

Heard today that 20+ players are being paid more in 2013 than your Houston AstrosIncluding one Barry Zito SF has three pitchers on this list ffs.

Zito has two more World Series rings than the Astros 40 man roster.

A marvel that S.F. fans are in a position now to never have to regret that signing. Don't think anyone would change a thing.

From a results-oriented perspective, it's fine. From a team-building perspective, it still was a colossal mistake, and not an unforeseeable one. O.co and some good fortune were masking a whole world of hurt re: Zito's actual skills.I'm pretty sure most Giants fans would rather that money was spent on someone else who, to date, has been pretty terrible.

should have spent it on lottery tickets

 

[Eephus]

Innings eater Joe Saunders goes to Seattle on a one year deal

 

[Daywalker]

Heard today that 20+ players are being paid more in 2013 than your Houston AstrosIncluding one Barry Zito SF has three pitchers on this list ffs.

Zito has two more World Series rings than the Astros 40 man roster.

A marvel that S.F. fans are in a position now to never have to regret that signing. Don't think anyone would change a thing.

From a results-oriented perspective, it's fine. From a team-building perspective, it still was a colossal mistake, and not an unforeseeable one. O.co and some good fortune were masking a whole world of hurt re: Zito's actual skills.I'm pretty sure most Giants fans would rather that money was spent on someone else who, to date, has been pretty terrible.

I'm just saying if I'm an S.F. fan and could travel back in time and undo the signing I wouldn't.

 

[Eephus]

Heard today that 20+ players are being paid more in 2013 than your Houston AstrosIncluding one Barry Zito SF has three pitchers on this list ffs.

Zito has two more World Series rings than the Astros 40 man roster.

A marvel that S.F. fans are in a position now to never have to regret that signing. Don't think anyone would change a thing.

From a results-oriented perspective, it's fine. From a team-building perspective, it still was a colossal mistake, and not an unforeseeable one. O.co and some good fortune were masking a whole world of hurt re: Zito's actual skills.I'm pretty sure most Giants fans would rather that money was spent on someone else who, to date, has been pretty terrible.

I'm just saying if I'm an S.F. fan and could travel back in time and undo the signing I wouldn't.

It's not my money and Zito seems like a great guy and all that. But it was and is a bad contract.

 

[Raider Nation]

It's gonna be weird having a baseball season with no Larry Jones. :(

 

[Encyclopedia Brown]

Buster Olney had a column today about how the Angels will construct the top of their lineup. They seem content with fitting Bourjus in at #2 and Hamilton #4.I would go Trout/Pujols/Hamilton. Olney made a point how ordinarily Hamilton would be the better fit at #2 but because he swings so much at the first pitch he will take away SB opportunities for Trout. Now that's a way to start a game.

 

[Encyclopedia Brown]

It's gonna be weird having a baseball season with no Larry Jones. :(

I mentioned this last year: Chipper can still flat out hit but can't run much anymore. He'd fit in perfectly in Baltimore. A couple of average seasons would give him a shot at 500 HR and 3K hits.

 

[Daywalker]

Who's skill-set would you rather have Chipper or Jeter? Both .300 hitters. Chipper the switch-hitter and superior power hitter. Jeter plays SS and has the decisive edge durability-wise.

 

[Annyong]

It's gonna be weird having a baseball season with no Larry Jones. :(

I mentioned this last year: Chipper can still flat out hit but can't run much anymore. He'd fit in perfectly in Baltimore. A couple of average seasons would give him a shot at 500 HR and 3K hits.

Has to be a HOFer despite those benchmarks right?

 

[shadyridr]

Who's skill-set would you rather have Chipper or Jeter? Both .300 hitters. Chipper the switch-hitter and superior power hitter. Jeter plays SS and has the decisive edge durability-wise.

Chipper got hurt alot so Id rather have Jeter who is still performing well at his current age. Skill set I think Chipper was better

 

[shadyridr]

It's gonna be weird having a baseball season with no Larry Jones. :(

I mentioned this last year: Chipper can still flat out hit but can't run much anymore. He'd fit in perfectly in Baltimore. A couple of average seasons would give him a shot at 500 HR and 3K hits.

Has to be a HOFer despite those benchmarks right?

lock

 

[TobiasFunke]

Buster Olney had a column today about how the Angels will construct the top of their lineup. They seem content with fitting Bourjus in at #2 and Hamilton #4.I would go Trout/Pujols/Hamilton. Olney made a point how ordinarily Hamilton would be the better fit at #2 but because he swings so much at the first pitch he will take away SB opportunities for Trout. Now that's a way to start a game.

Bourjos is a 9 hole hitter in that lineup. Even if 2012 was an outlier, he's still only maybe a .325 OBP guy with no power. 9 is the perfect spot for him.

 

[Raider Nation]

It's gonna be weird having a baseball season with no Larry Jones. :(

I mentioned this last year: Chipper can still flat out hit but can't run much anymore. He'd fit in perfectly in Baltimore. A couple of average seasons would give him a shot at 500 HR and 3K hits.

Has to be a HOFer despite those benchmarks right?

lock

100%.Those milestones would be nice for a player with otherwise marginal credentials, but unnecessary for Chipper.

Third base is the least represented position in the Hall of Fame, not that Chipper Jones needs any help getting into the Hall. He’s one of just 10 players in history with a .300 lifetime batting average, a .400 on-base percentage, an adjusted OPS of at least 140 and 450 home runs.Jones has gotten MVP votes in 12 different seasons and he won a batting title at age 36.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Going to the Babe Ruth Birthday party at the museum in Baltimore tonight. Hopefully he and Chris Hoiles want to do some shots.

 

[Raider Nation]

Going to the Babe Ruth Birthday party at the museum in Baltimore tonight. Hopefully he and Chris Hoiles want to do some shots.

Ex-players I never would have thought of for the remainder of eternity for $500, Alex.

 

[Raider Nation]

TIMMY

 

[Eephus]

Third baseman Chone Figgins has signed a minor league contract with the Miami Marlins with an invitation to their major league camp beginning next week.Figgins, who signed Friday, hit .181 in 66 games with Seattle last season. He's a .277 career hitter with 337 stolen bases in 11 seasons, all in the American League.Placido Polanco, 37, is expected to be the Marlins' starting third baseman.

 

[Brady Marino]

TIMMY

I didn't know Greg Maddux had a child that pitches in the majors.

 

[Wrigley]

TIMMY

Sampson said Delilah you cut off my hair