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.289 30 homers 85 rbis and 126 strikeouts? Yeah it was one a pretty good year, but I've expected more than that from the potential that we've been hearing about. And consistency is part of it and he hasn't put together years like that. Maybe he'll flourish with his brother.didnt it turn into production in 2011?
I'm going to assume they made this deal with some sort of deal in place to extend Prado...otherwise it's a bad deal, we'll see soon. Rumblings from people within the org is that he had turned into a locker room cancer and Gibson couldn't get through to him. I'd take Gibson 100x out of 100 over Upton.
He had .369 OBP/.529 SLG/141 OPS+ his age 23 season. And .366/.532/129 his age 21 season. And you are glad to give up on him? I get that he took a step back last year (and in 2010) - but it wasn't like he was terrible. Far from it..289 30 homers 85 rbis and 126 strikeouts? Yeah it was one a pretty good year, but I've expected more than that from the potential that we've been hearing about. And consistency is part of it and he hasn't put together years like that. Maybe he'll flourish with his brother.
He WAS terrible last year, got somewhat hot towards the end of the season that skewed his numbers into respectability.There have been rumors for over a year about him not getting along with Gibson as well as not working with the coaches, not someone you want in your locker room.He had .369 OBP/.529 SLG/141 OPS+ his age 23 season. And .366/.532/129 his age 21 season. And you are glad to give up on him? I get that he took a step back last year (and in 2010) - but it wasn't like he was terrible. Far from it..289 30 homers 85 rbis and 126 strikeouts? Yeah it was one a pretty good year, but I've expected more than that from the potential that we've been hearing about. And consistency is part of it and he hasn't put together years like that. Maybe he'll flourish with his brother.
What was going on behind the scenes that was so terrible that the D'Backs needed to get rid of him? I don't get it.
Well, cost is a big factor for the Braves, Liberty Media just isn't going to up their budget. So dealing Prado offsets the cost of Upton. Plus, he's older and only has 1 year of team control. It is somewhat curious, but Johnson put up close to 2 WAR last year. If he can duplicate that then they've certainly improved.
He's 25 years old, ace.
Only 2 years and 5 months older than Randall Delgado.
True, but he has over 3000 MLB PAs. He's pretty much a finished product. He's a very good player but probably won't become the superstar he was expected to become. There's not a high likelihood of him making a major leap in production (another legacy of the steroid era). Staying healthy for a season would help. Maybe Atlanta will be a better situation for him in spite of the offensive downgrade of home ballpark.It's not a terrible return but it's anticlimactic after a saga that's been going on for years. I guess Arizona felt they had to move him but it's odd that Kevin Towers' African vacation tomorrow was a potential factor in the deal.
LHUCKS would be all over this.
That's not really young in baseball, chief.
idi Gregorious (fields, can't hit)Tony Sipp (LOOGY)Lars Anderson (dead)Heath Bell 
Cliff Pennington (also fields, also can't hit, also same position as Gregorious)Martin Prado (would have been available as a FA in 9 months)Randall Delgado (4-5 starter, high BBB rates)Nick Ahmed (yet a third SS who can field but can't hit at all)Zeke Spruill (possible 4-5 starter)Brandon Drury (.674 MILB OPS)
LOL, obviously a bit tongue-in-cheek, but his career numbers aren't special, no matter how much you'd like them to be..278 24hr 80 rbi .832 ops, but it's all about POTENTIAL!
From 2005-2009, the average player making his major-league debut was 24.4 years old
Please provide your list of players that blossomed (or realized their potential) after having 5+ ML seasons over the age of 25? Idiot.I know you have a rep around here of being a complete imbecile, but you don't have to make it your quest to hammer it home to everyone.
Please show your work. 25 is pre-prime #######, I can list 100 players if you like.Please provide your list of players that blossomed (or realized their potential) after having 5+ ML seasons over the age of 25? Idiot.I know you have a rep around here of being a complete imbecile, but you don't have to make it your quest to hammer it home to everyone.
Stars debut youngerFrom 2005-2009, the average player making his major-league debut was 24.4 years old
I agree with your basic point about player development but it's not like we're talking about a bust. Upton has had two strong seasons and two disappointing ones. His issue isn't the need for development, it's the lack of consistency.Please provide your list of players that blossomed (or realized their potential) after having 5+ ML seasons over the age of 25? Idiot.I know you have a rep around here of being a complete imbecile, but you don't have to make it your quest to hammer it home to everyone.
Upton has already been to two all-star games and was 4th in MVP voting in 2011. How many 25 year old hitters can say that? Card Trader is trying to sell Upton as a bust, he's far from it and he's just 25.Stars debut youngerFrom 2005-2009, the average player making his major-league debut was 24.4 years old
His wrist injury killed him last year. That seemed pretty obvious.I agree with your basic point about player development but it's not like we're talking about a bust. Upton has had two strong seasons and two disappointing ones. His issue isn't the need for development, it's the lack of consistency.Please provide your list of players that blossomed (or realized their potential) after having 5+ ML seasons over the age of 25? Idiot.I know you have a rep around here of being a complete imbecile, but you don't have to make it your quest to hammer it home to everyone.
I'm not saying he's a bust. I'm just agreeing with Eephus that you shouldn't necessarily expect a huge jump in production just because he's around the age of the average MLB rookie. I read something last year, Shandler I think it was, that hitter performance didn't correlate that well with the magical age-27 season. What was a better correlation was a certain # of plate appearances, something like 2+ seasons worth. Basically, you should expect out of Justin Upton what you've seen so far. And then you guys can argue about how good that is.
I'd like to see this but Jose Bautista, David Ortiz and Adrian Beltre among others prove it is an inexact science.
Does that still count for a guy who only played 233 games in the minors, and didn't go to college?
Oh sure. There's outliers in any dataset. Nobody would've expected a pitcher to win his first Cy Young at 38, either. But the general result is still whatever it is.
I'll see if I can dig up the essay later tonight but I think the dataset was just PAs in the majors. Don't think that the age of debut is as meaningful as it would seem like it should be. Good talent gets played younger, generally speaking.
Guys like Votto are debuting at 23 but have almost 3000 minor league plate appearances before they reach the majors (about the same Upton had minors/majors combined at same age). That goes to GPJ's post and kind of suggests that the guys in your example aren't really stars but players that have never reached a certain performance level, and never will. Upton has already demonstrated he has the potential to excel (two .900ish OPS seasons, silver slugger, high MVP finish) but still has inconsistencies. My argument is Upton is still is rising and the magic 27 applies.DO want to read that article though, please find.
Just taking a quick look at these guys if you look at the season that they started with > 1200 PAs, say 2 full seasons and a cup of coffee.Votto: MVPBraun: 3x AS, MVP the next yearHamilton: MVPBautista: Hit .235, 4th in MVP the next yearCano: Only year where his OPS was sub-.840 in 2 years before and every year after. Really started to turn it on at age 27.Granderson: .858 OPS, finished 10th in the MVP the year beforeMcCutchen: 3rd in the MVP (last year)Jones: Sort of meh but not very different from his season the year before when he was an ASFielder: 20th in MVP, 3rd the year before and 4th the year afterHolliday: Hit .340, 2nd in MVPBruce: Hit .256 with 32 dingers, made him an ASUpton: AS, 4th in the MVPThe 1200 # is arbitrary and I'm not 100% sure that I got the right season for everyone. I'm pretty good at eyeballing #s but it's possible I added wrong somewhere.So I don't know what this proves, if anything, other than maybe it looks like the players (at least on your list) who do something generally do do it in what you could call their third full year. Or at least they show enough that what happens next isn't a total shocker.
I wonder if Gibson the manager would have gotten along with Gibson the player 30 years ago.
Only if the older Gibson let the younger Gibson borrow his time machine.
They are set with Soriano, DeJesus, Scheirholz, Hairston, and Sappelt it seems. I suspect that Jackson was always going to Iowa to work on his new approach without pressure (a la Rizzo) even if he dropped his K rate in Arizona. If he shows the adjustments in Iowa, I don't think it would last past a month before he is in the everyday lineup in CF.
I'm waiting for him to show his work about you being an imbecile. I want to see if our notebooks match up.
From Jonah Keri's column on the trade in Grantland:'Card Trader said:
So we can at least eliminate the "average" option from the assessment of him as "average to slightly above average," I guess. The second part depends on your definition of "slightly." I personally would say that one of the best outfielders in the NL over the last several years is more than slightly above average, but to each their own.
Exactly. The "cancer" even played through the injury which lingered for months if not the season. Guy was MVP-4 the year before. He's 25. Seems like a no-brainer for the Braves.'Good said:His wrist injury killed him last year. That seemed pretty obvious.'Eephus said:I agree with your basic point about player development but it's not like we're talking about a bust. Upton has had two strong seasons and two disappointing ones. His issue isn't the need for development, it's the lack of consistency.'Card Trader said:Please provide your list of players that blossomed (or realized their potential) after having 5+ ML seasons over the age of 25? Idiot.I know you have a rep around here of being a complete imbecile, but you don't have to make it your quest to hammer it home to everyone.'Doctor Detroit said:'Card Trader said:
AFAIK, Card Trader is the only person on the internet that likes this deal.Exactly. The "cancer" even played through the injury which lingered for months if not the season. Guy was MVP-4 the year before. He's 25. Seems like a no-brainer for the Braves.'Good said:His wrist injury killed him last year. That seemed pretty obvious.'Eephus said:I agree with your basic point about player development but it's not like we're talking about a bust. Upton has had two strong seasons and two disappointing ones. His issue isn't the need for development, it's the lack of consistency.'Card Trader said:Please provide your list of players that blossomed (or realized their potential) after having 5+ ML seasons over the age of 25? Idiot.I know you have a rep around here of being a complete imbecile, but you don't have to make it your quest to hammer it home to everyone.'Doctor Detroit said:'Card Trader said:
