*** Official 2012-13 Hot Stove Thread (3 Viewers)

[Good Posting Judge]

Card Trader must be Kevin Tower's alias.

jfchttps://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/294560982922035200

 

[Dr. Awesome]

Card Trader must be Kevin Tower's alias.

jfchttps://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/294560982922035200

Even Mike Scioscia thinks that's stupid.

 

[Dr. Awesome]

The Diamondbacks DFA'd Lars Anderson in order to clear room for the new guys. Anderson is one of the main guys they acquired in the Bauer deal.

 

[Brady Marino]

The Diamondbacks DFA'd Lars Anderson in order to clear room for the new guys. Anderson is one of the main guys they acquired in the Bauer deal.

Have to make room for Eric Chavez, Heath Bell and something called Alfredo Marte.

 

[Eephus]

The Diamondbacks DFA'd Lars Anderson in order to clear room for the new guys. Anderson is one of the main guys they acquired in the Bauer deal.

Have to make room for Eric Chavez, Heath Bell and something called Alfredo Marte.

Anderson wasn't a main guy in anything. He's a 25 year old non-prospect who is a borderline guy for a 40 man roster.

 

[Dr. Awesome]

The Diamondbacks DFA'd Lars Anderson in order to clear room for the new guys. Anderson is one of the main guys they acquired in the Bauer deal.

Have to make room for Eric Chavez, Heath Bell and something called Alfredo Marte.

Anderson wasn't a main guy in anything. He's a 25 year old non-prospect who is a borderline guy for a 40 man roster.

Fair point. But the way Towers appears to be operating it's seemingly hard to say how he actually values anyone.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

The A's inquired about Lowrie this year, and the Astros wanted Carter and a prospect. OK.

 

[MAC_32]

Delgado as the feature piece for J Up? Really?

Rosenthal also tweeted that Delgado not the biggest piece.

I would argue he was, no idea what Arizona is thinking.

 

[MAC_32]

The Diamondbacks DFA'd Lars Anderson in order to clear room for the new guys. Anderson is one of the main guys they acquired in the Bauer deal.

Have to make room for Eric Chavez, Heath Bell and something called Alfredo Marte.

Anderson wasn't a main guy in anything. He's a 25 year old non-prospect who is a borderline guy for a 40 man roster.

Fair point. But the way Towers appears to be operating it's seemingly hard to say how he actually values anyone.

Yep... He really just wanted to go on vacation knowing this was over.

 

[Raider Nation]

We need a group hug in here. I think it's the shitty weather.

 

[Guest]

Upton has already been to two all-star games and was 4th in MVP voting in 2011. How many 25 year old hitters can say that? Card Trader is trying to sell Upton as a bust, he's far from it and he's just 25.

I'm not saying he's a bust. I'm just agreeing with Eephus that you shouldn't necessarily expect a huge jump in production just because he's around the age of the average MLB rookie. I read something last year, Shandler I think it was, that hitter performance didn't correlate that well with the magical age-27 season. What was a better correlation was a certain # of plate appearances, something like 2+ seasons worth. Basically, you should expect out of Justin Upton what you've seen so far. And then you guys can argue about how good that is.

Does that still count for a guy who only played 233 games in the minors, and didn't go to college?

I'll see if I can dig up the essay later tonight but I think the dataset was just PAs in the majors. Don't think that the age of debut is as meaningful as it would seem like it should be. Good talent gets played younger, generally speaking.

Guys like Votto are debuting at 23 but have almost 3000 minor league plate appearances before they reach the majors (about the same Upton had minors/majors combined at same age). That goes to GPJ's post and kind of suggests that the guys in your example aren't really stars but players that have never reached a certain performance level, and never will. Upton has already demonstrated he has the potential to excel (two .900ish OPS seasons, silver slugger, high MVP finish) but still has inconsistencies. My argument is Upton is still is rising and the magic 27 applies.DO want to read that article though, please find.

Found it. Unsurprisingly, I misremembered it although it's not terribly far off.The article was written by Patrick Davitt of BaseballHQ. He looked at hitters who had at least 50 PA in his rookie year and at least 1 PA in the 2 years following. From that sample, there was a moderate negative correlation (-.29) between age and fantasy value (people who make the bigs at 21 are more likely to make an impact than someone who makes it at 28) and a stronger positive correlation (.53) between number of plate appearances and fantasy value. There's obviously some self-selection and distortion going on. A lot of fantasy value is in just having an everyday job. So if you were played a lot your first two years you're more likely to have a valuable third year than someone who didn't and generally someone who is brought up to play as a rookie is a blue chip while someone who is brought in at 28 is orgnanizational depth.

He did expand what he looked at and tried a sample of all baseball players. And again players who had more plate appearances had a strong positive correlation to fantasy value but the sample that had the biggest gains were the players who had 400 PAs in the first 2 years, i.e., that was there was the most growth. And this last bit is interesting and maybe what stuck with me. The age at which someone reached a certain number of plate appearances was uncorrelated with performance at all levels of plate appearances. I.e., you have a certain expectation for someone who has 800 PAs in the majors but that expectation is the same whether they reach that plateau at age 22 or age 24 or age 27.

 

[TobiasFunke]

We need a group hug in here. I think it's the shitty weather.

Maybe this will help. I posted it in the thread about the trade, but it deserves a wider audience.

 

[dparker713]

The A's inquired about Lowrie this year, and the Astros wanted Carter and a prospect. OK.

Well, the SS market is pretty barren. Even limited to 97 games Lowrie was worth 2.5 fWAR.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

The A's inquired about Lowrie this year, and the Astros wanted Carter and a prospect. OK.

Well, the SS market is pretty barren. Even limited to 97 games Lowrie was worth 2.5 fWAR.

2 years of Lowrie vs. 5 years of Carter, + 6 years of another prospect? Thanks but no thanks.

 

[Guest]

The A's inquired about Lowrie this year, and the Astros wanted Carter and a prospect. OK.

Well, the SS market is pretty barren. Even limited to 97 games Lowrie was worth 2.5 fWAR.

2 years of Lowrie vs. 5 years of Carter, + 6 years of another prospect? Thanks but no thanks.

You also have to discount the Lowrie years by 50% to account for long-term DL stints

 

[Eephus]

The A's inquired about Lowrie this year, and the Astros wanted Carter and a prospect. OK.

Well, the SS market is pretty barren. Even limited to 97 games Lowrie was worth 2.5 fWAR.

2 years of Lowrie vs. 5 years of Carter, + 6 years of another prospect? Thanks but no thanks.

You also have to discount the Lowrie years by 50% to account for long-term DL stints

The Oaklands are putting a lot of faith in Nakajima

 

[Dr. Awesome]

The A's inquired about Lowrie this year, and the Astros wanted Carter and a prospect. OK.

Well, the SS market is pretty barren. Even limited to 97 games Lowrie was worth 2.5 fWAR.

2 years of Lowrie vs. 5 years of Carter, + 6 years of another prospect? Thanks but no thanks.

You also have to discount the Lowrie years by 50% to account for long-term DL stints

The Oaklands are putting a lot of faith in Nakajima

If Nakajima or Weeks/Sizemore flop, they'll still be able to revisit a Lowrie deal.

 

[Frostillicus]

The A's inquired about Lowrie this year, and the Astros wanted Carter and a prospect. OK.

Well, the SS market is pretty barren. Even limited to 97 games Lowrie was worth 2.5 fWAR.

2 years of Lowrie vs. 5 years of Carter, + 6 years of another prospect? Thanks but no thanks.

You also have to discount the Lowrie years by 50% to account for long-term DL stints

The Oaklands are putting a lot of faith in Nakajima

If Nakajima or Weeks/Sizemore flop, they'll still be able to revisit a Lowrie deal.

Nishioka, imo.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

The A's inquired about Lowrie this year, and the Astros wanted Carter and a prospect. OK.

Well, the SS market is pretty barren. Even limited to 97 games Lowrie was worth 2.5 fWAR.

2 years of Lowrie vs. 5 years of Carter, + 6 years of another prospect? Thanks but no thanks.

You also have to discount the Lowrie years by 50% to account for long-term DL stints

The Oaklands are putting a lot of faith in Nakajima

Having a regular middle-infielder who can't hit for #### isn't going to shake up the status quo that much.At least Nakajima is cheap. Lowrie would've cost players, Cabrera would've cost players, etc. It's not ideal, but this is a team with $60m-ish in payroll.

 

[Dr. Awesome]

Marcum signs with the Mets at 4 million for one season. Another 4 million in incentives.At that low a price, I'm surprised there weren't other teams beating down his door. Wonder if his elbow is still a problem.

 

[Eephus]

Marcum signs with the Mets at 4 million for one season. Another 4 million in incentives.At that low a price, I'm surprised there weren't other teams beating down his door. Wonder if his elbow is still a problem.

If it isn't now, it's probably just a matter of time

 

[Northern Voice]

Marcum signs with the Mets at 4 million for one season. Another 4 million in incentives.At that low a price, I'm surprised there weren't other teams beating down his door. Wonder if his elbow is still a problem.

If it isn't now, it's probably just a matter of time

I hope it doesn't affect his velocity. I Shawn Marcum (always good when healthy in Toronto, reputation for loving booze and strip clubs, and he got the Jays Lawrie) and at that salary, if he can somehow stay healthy for the first couple months, he could easily be moved to a contending team at the deadline.

 

[Wrigley]

Marcum signs with the Mets at 4 million for one season. Another 4 million in incentives.At that low a price, I'm surprised there weren't other teams beating down his door. Wonder if his elbow is still a problem.

If it isn't now, it's probably just a matter of time

Don't they give the waterboys 4 mil in the show?

 

[Daywalker]

Marcum signs with the Mets at 4 million for one season. Another 4 million in incentives.At that low a price, I'm surprised there weren't other teams beating down his door. Wonder if his elbow is still a problem.

Rather Marcum at that price then Blanton at 2/14mill.

 

[Dr. Awesome]

Major League Baseball is investigating the age of Cuban free-agent shortstop Aledmys Diaz, reports Ben Badler of Baseball America. In a twist, MLB is investigating him for being younger than he presented himself, not older. Players usually try to make them themselves younger and more desirable to clubs.Diaz, who defected to Mexico, presented himself as a 23-year-old born on Jan. 8, 1990. That date conflicts with other documents and sources, which indicate an Aug. 1, 1990, birthdate. That would make Diaz only 22 years old, which means he would be subject to the international spending caps put in place by the latest Collective Bargaining Agreement. Teams can sign players age 23 or older for any amount."I only go by the documentation that I have from the player," said Jaime Torres, Diaz's agent. "I've seen from different rosters, different ages for players in Cuba, so I don't pay much attention to what is put on the pages from Cuba ... Only the player and the family should know the correct date of birth, not the sports authority from Cuba, the Cuban government. What I have, showing his date of birth, is 1/8/90—January 8, 1990."Torres added that MLB is insisting Diaz present an unblocking license from the Office of Foreign Assets Control before he can agree to a contract. Players can typically present an OFAC unblocking license or two permanent residency documents from a non-Cuba countr

Still hoping Oakland lands this kid.

 

[Captain Hook]

Delgado as the feature piece for J Up? Really?

Rosenthal also tweeted that Delgado not the biggest piece.

I would argue he was, no idea what Arizona is thinking.

They traded for Prado and prospects

 

[MAC_32]

Delgado as the feature piece for J Up? Really?

Rosenthal also tweeted that Delgado not the biggest piece.

I would argue he was, no idea what Arizona is thinking.

They traded for Prado and prospects

I know, Prado is very average. At his upside he is on par with what Upton has done.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Delgado as the feature piece for J Up? Really?

Rosenthal also tweeted that Delgado not the biggest piece.

I would argue he was, no idea what Arizona is thinking.

They traded for Prado and prospects

I know, Prado is very average. At his upside he is on par with what Upton has done.

Prado would've also been available on the FA market in 10 months.

 

[MAC_32]

That too.

 

[dparker713]

Delgado as the feature piece for J Up? Really?

Rosenthal also tweeted that Delgado not the biggest piece.

I would argue he was, no idea what Arizona is thinking.

They traded for Prado and prospects

I know, Prado is very average. At his upside he is on par with what Upton has done.

Prado has averaged 3.75 fWAR over the past 4 seasons while playing multiple positions. That is not average. That is borderline All Star.

 

[Captain Hook]

Delgado as the feature piece for J Up? Really?

Rosenthal also tweeted that Delgado not the biggest piece.

I would argue he was, no idea what Arizona is thinking.

They traded for Prado and prospects

I know, Prado is very average. At his upside he is on par with what Upton has done.

really? Prado is clearly above average on any scale you want to use ..... and thus you think Justin Upton is very average?

 

[MAC_32]

Delgado as the feature piece for J Up? Really?

Rosenthal also tweeted that Delgado not the biggest piece.

I would argue he was, no idea what Arizona is thinking.

They traded for Prado and prospects

I know, Prado is very average. At his upside he is on par with what Upton has done.

really? Prado is clearly above average on any scale you want to use ..... and thus you think Justin Upton is very average?

Upton has scuffled off and on over the course of the last few years while Prado has been relatively steady with the exception of that bout with staph.Their comparative WAR? Almost identical, only Upton's ceiling is much, much higher.

 

[Tremendous Upside]

Prado strikes me as one of those guys who is always underappreciated because he does a lot of things pretty well but nothing exceptionally .300 hitters with positional flexibility don't exactly grow on trees

 

[Balco]

Prado strikes me as one of those guys who is always underappreciated because he does a lot of things pretty well but nothing exceptionally .300 hitters with positional flexibility don't exactly grow on trees

Prado is a very good player, who would have even been better last year if not for the staph infection. Multi position eligibility, .3oo hitter, and great clubhouse guy as well. I think people are really underestimating him. There is no reason to think Arizona won't compete for a playoff spot. They have a solid offensive lineup, a solid pitching staff, and a solid bullpen. And a ton of high character players as well. All they need is health, and I don't see why they can't approach 90 wins.Heard Adam Eaton on MLB radio today, great interview.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Prado strikes me as one of those guys who is always underappreciated because he does a lot of things pretty well but nothing exceptionally

.300 hitters with positional flexibility don't exactly grow on trees

Prado is a very good player, who would have even been better last year if not for the staph infection. Multi position eligibility, .3oo hitter, and great clubhouse guy as well. I think people are really underestimating him. There is no reason to think Arizona won't compete for a playoff spot. They have a solid offensive lineup, a solid pitching staff, and a solid bullpen. And a ton of high character players as well. All they need is health, and I don't see why they can't approach 90 wins.

Heard Adam Eaton on MLB radio today, great interview.

I know you love this part of player evaluation so you'll have to adopt the D'Bags as your team. Basically a bunch of grinders who are good in the clubhouse (meaning they don't backtalk Kirk).

 

[Balco]

Prado strikes me as one of those guys who is always underappreciated because he does a lot of things pretty well but nothing exceptionally

.300 hitters with positional flexibility don't exactly grow on trees

Prado is a very good player, who would have even been better last year if not for the staph infection. Multi position eligibility, .3oo hitter, and great clubhouse guy as well. I think people are really underestimating him. There is no reason to think Arizona won't compete for a playoff spot. They have a solid offensive lineup, a solid pitching staff, and a solid bullpen. And a ton of high character players as well. All they need is health, and I don't see why they can't approach 90 wins.

Heard Adam Eaton on MLB radio today, great interview.

I know you love this part of player evaluation so you'll have to adopt the D'Bags as your team. Basically a bunch of grinders who are good in the clubhouse (meaning they don't backtalk Kirk).

I think it is important to have high character players, at least a couple of them, to keep the clubhouse in line. As a Red Sox fan, I guess I deem it pretty important after recent seasons.But I don't think Arizona's lineup is filled with grinders. There is alot of offensive talent, solid versatility, and some very good platoon splits to interchange. This is a very good team. But again, it is all contingent on health. Guys like Jason Kubel, Aaron Hill, Miguel Montero, Brandon McCarthey, and JJ Putz aren't exactly known for being iron men.

 

[MAC_32]

High character guys are important, but so is talent. Sacrificing talent for character gets you the Mangini Browns. Sometimes you need to deal with a few talented headcases to get where you want to be, good clubhouse leadership can usually reign them in.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

The '86 Mets were a bunch of ####### lunatics.

 

[Brady Marino]

Rays sign 2B Kelly Johnson, per Ken Rosenthal. Zobrist likely to RF, but Johnson could also play some RF as well.

 

[Captain Hook]

Rays sign 2B Kelly Johnson, per Ken Rosenthal. Zobrist likely to RF, but Johnson could also play some RF as well.

Big question for Rays lineup is whether Desmond Jennings can play CF? If Jennings can handle center then Joyce to LF and Zobrist in RFIf NOT then they are really hampered because neither Joyce or Zobrist should be in center ... before the signing manned by Fuld (or Guyer)

 

[Premier]

DJ is definitely playing center. Looks like full time OF R-L is Zobrist-Jennings-Joyce. Johnson and Reynolds will platoon at 2B while we all wait for Myers. Interesting signing.

 

[Annyong]

Where is Fuld now?

 

[Brady Marino]

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_RosenthalSource: Zobrist will stay play "a lot" of second base for #Rays. Kelly Johnson will bounce around.

 

[TobiasFunke]

The '86 Mets were a bunch of ####### lunatics.

The Red Sox notorious "chicken and beer" threesome has a combined four World Series rings. Each has won a clinching game in the Series.A good clubhouse is a product of winning, not the other way around.

 

[Eephus]

Phillies sign Chad Durbin and Yuniesky Betancourt.

 

[Northern Voice]

Rays going with last season's Jays middle infield

 

[Michael Brown]

The '86 Mets were a bunch of ####### lunatics.

The Red Sox notorious "chicken and beer" threesome has a combined four World Series rings. Each has won a clinching game in the Series.A good clubhouse is a product of winning, not the other way around.

Media blew that chicken and beer thing completely out of control. I would guess somewhere around 100% OF ALL TEAMS have eaten chicken and drank beer in the clubhouse. Drinking beer during games was a symptom of a team that had stopped caring, not a cause for it. Hell, the 2004 Red Sox all did a shot of Jack prior to Game 7 against the Yankees that year. But they won, so it becomes a legend rather than a sad story. It's all bs. There's more than one way to win a World Series (and getting rid of top-flight talent is NOT one of them).

 

[Eephus]

Juan Rivera back with the Yankees

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Juan Rivera back with the Yankees

Great clubhouse presence since he's always injured, and present in the clubhouse.

 

[RnR]

Juan Rivera back with the Yankees

Great clubhouse presence since he's always injured, and present in the clubhouse.