***Official*** 2012 FBG Subscriber Contest Thread

[Deranged Hermit]

I forget who runs the sim for the final cut based on Dodds numbers for the Monday Nite players, but that would be a nice addition to the thread. I'm sitting at 131.3 plus Royal.

I'm guessing 138-140ish or so.

I get 136.7 using Dodds numbers, but that assumes that all FG's are <40 yards since he doesn't break them out by distance.

Wow, that seems low. I think the current cutoff is 128 or so, that's only a 8 point swing. Still, these teams aren't offensive juggernaughts, so maybe that'd be right on the money.

 

[Jed]

My average pts per week by position:QB - 27.03 RB1 - 17.37 RB2 - 10.02 WR1 - 31.00 WR2 - 22.72 WR3 - 19.33 TE - 12.92 Flex - 14.13 K - 14.67 TD - 9.00 Total - 178.18

QB - 30.34RB1 - 22.53RB2 - 16.13WR1 - 28.00WR2 - 21.60WR3 - 13.85 TE - 16.85 Flex - 13.02K - 14.00TD - 10.33Total - 184.99

kardplayer sighting!Are you doing the OA standings in the WOC contest this year?

 

[5-ish Finkle]

Coulda swore Hanson was a $4 kicker. I'd have taken him at $3, but didn't.

 

[Modog814]

Of the teams that are below the current cut line:

182 have Manning

15 have Rivers

222 have McGahee

124 have Ronnie Brown

22 have Hillman

17 Have Ball

4 Have Mathews

2 have McClain

3 have Battle

542 have Decker

149 have Royal

81 have Floyd

13 have Thomas

8 have Meachem

146 have Gates

114 have Tamme

50 have Dreesen

9 have McMichael

484 have Prater

96 have Broncos Def

24 have SD Def

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Here are the results of plugging in Dodds's MNF projections in for each week, and where the actual cut line ended up. I guess I didn't do this last week. I see above Modog got 136.70 for this week's cutline, I got 136.90 but close enough.

Week	Dodds	Actual2	145.30	139.603	163.15	161.904	154.65	156.755	------	128.456	136.90	??????

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Coulda swore Hanson was a $4 kicker. I'd have taken him at $3, but didn't.

Yes, Hanson was $4.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Moving on to week 7.

You're not out of the woods yet. You're most likely going to need Antonio Gates to put up some points to keep you ahead of the cutline, and he hasn't exactly been lighting it up this year.

 

[5-ish Finkle]

My average pts per week by position:QB - 27.03 RB1 - 17.37 RB2 - 10.02 WR1 - 31.00 WR2 - 22.72 WR3 - 19.33 TE - 12.92 Flex - 14.13 K - 14.67 TD - 9.00 Total - 178.18

I'll play:QB- 27.46RB1- 17.2RB2- 12.3WR1- 26.9WR2- 19.6WR3- 13.2TE- 19.1Flex- 15.97PK- 17.2TD- 11.7Total- 181.98Week 6 has really kicked the hell out of my averages.

 

[BassNBrew]

Here are the results of plugging in Dodds's MNF projections in for each week, and where the actual cut line ended up. I guess I didn't do this last week. I see above Modog got 136.70 for this week's cutline, I got 136.90 but close enough.

Week	Dodds	Actual2	145.30	139.603	163.15	161.904	154.65	156.755	------	128.456	136.90	??????

Saw Royal is questionable. I'm out if he doesn't play. Ridley/Mendy/Benson/Wilson picked a bad week to all stink. Big thumbs down to Chandler too.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Here are the r-squareds for average points at each position and survival through week 5. Not sure what you'd want to conclude from this but I had it so I figured I'd post it:

POS	R^2QB	0.023RB1	0.036RB2	0.050WR1	0.092WR2	0.104WR3	0.099TE	0.062PK	0.027TD	0.018Flex	0.130TOT	0.355

 

[butcher boy]

I have Rodgers. Is it safe to assume I made it thorugh this week?

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

I have Rodgers. Is it safe to assume I made it thorugh this week?

Are you this guy? If so, you might not make the cut this week. If you're one of the other 1164 Rodgers owners, you should probably be ok.

 

[Modog814]

So the most influential players tonight in regards to the cut line:

Eric Decker 3.3

Willis McGahee 1.5

Peyton Manning 1.2

Antion Gates 1.05

Matt Prater .8

Jacob Tamme .5

Broncos Def .35

Joel Dreessen .2

Philip Rivers .1

Everyone else is at .05 or less.

What the numbers mean is that if Decker hits Dodds projections, he's responsible for moving the cut line 3.3 points.

 

[smarchit]

157.7 with Decker (-13.1) and Mathews (-4.9) remaining. See ya next week for the exciting Week 7 Bye Week Blues!

 

[QuizGuy66]

I forget who runs the sim for the final cut based on Dodds numbers for the Monday Nite players, but that would be a nice addition to the thread. I'm sitting at 131.3 plus Royal.

I'm guessing 138-140ish or so.

I get 136.7 using Dodds numbers, but that assumes that all FG's are <40 yards since he doesn't break them out by distance.

I'd think that 4 points per FG would be a safe middle estimate O'course Iggy probably has more exact measurings he can do.-QG

 

[QuizGuy66]

Of the teams that are below the current cut line:182 have Manning15 have Rivers222 have McGahee124 have Ronnie Brown22 have Hillman17 Have Ball4 Have Mathews2 have McClain3 have Battle542 have Decker149 have Royal81 have Floyd13 have Thomas8 have Meachem146 have Gates114 have Tamme50 have Dreesen9 have McMichael484 have Prater96 have Broncos Def24 have SD Def

I would think that the number of folks that are say 0-10 points above the current cut line with these players also would be of interest.Cool stuff -QG

 

[QuizGuy66]

My average pts per week by position:QB - 27.03 RB1 - 17.37 RB2 - 10.02 WR1 - 31.00 WR2 - 22.72 WR3 - 19.33 TE - 12.92 Flex - 14.13 K - 14.67 TD - 9.00 Total - 178.18

I'll play:QB- 27.46RB1- 17.2RB2- 12.3WR1- 26.9WR2- 19.6WR3- 13.2TE- 19.1Flex- 15.97PK- 17.2TD- 11.7Total- 181.98Week 6 has really kicked the hell out of my averages.

Me:QB 29.46RB1 22.67RB2 14.68WR1 27.30WR2 13.83WR3 10.20TE 17.80FLX 14.78PK 13.67DEF 11.83TOT 176.23It's a nice way of telling me that for all the players I have I don't exactly have the best group of 9 WR.On a different note, my flex position scoreboard: TE 4, RB 2, WR 0-QG

 

[pocketducks]

Wow... I saw how poorly my team did this week and thought for sure I was toast at 137.4.

Here hoping for a low scoring MNF game and that the projections of 136.9 are correct.

If I make it through this week I am making another donation to OC's awesome real-time scoring webpage.

 

[CalBear]

I forget who runs the sim for the final cut based on Dodds numbers for the Monday Nite players, but that would be a nice addition to the thread. I'm sitting at 131.3 plus Royal.

I'm guessing 138-140ish or so.

I get 136.7 using Dodds numbers, but that assumes that all FG's are <40 yards since he doesn't break them out by distance.

At 136.25, here's hoping for a defensive struggle.

 

[Modog814]

I forget who runs the sim for the final cut based on Dodds numbers for the Monday Nite players, but that would be a nice addition to the thread. I'm sitting at 131.3 plus Royal.

I'm guessing 138-140ish or so.

I get 136.7 using Dodds numbers, but that assumes that all FG's are <40 yards since he doesn't break them out by distance.

At 136.25, here's hoping for a defensive struggle.

Yeah, I'm done at 135...so looks like what we really need is a quiet night from Decker and McGahee and we should be good.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

I forget who runs the sim for the final cut based on Dodds numbers for the Monday Nite players, but that would be a nice addition to the thread. I'm sitting at 131.3 plus Royal.

I'm guessing 138-140ish or so.

I get 136.7 using Dodds numbers, but that assumes that all FG's are <40 yards since he doesn't break them out by distance.

At 136.25, here's hoping for a defensive struggle.

Yeah, I'm done at 135...so looks like what we really need is a quiet night from Decker and McGahee and we should be good.

Definitely want all you thread regulars to survive to week 7. Although I got three of my RL buddies to enter the contest this year (still waiting on my commission check, Joe). All four of us are still alive, but three of us are very close to the cutline this week and all three of us are relying in part on Eric Decker to keep us alive. I don't feel like staying up to watch the whole game tonight so I'm hoping Decker has 100 yds and 2 TDs by halftime so I can rest easy.

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

I have Rodgers. Is it safe to assume I made it thorugh this week?

Are you this guy? If so, you might not make the cut this week. If you're one of the other 1164 Rodgers owners, you should probably be ok.

Wow, talk about a guy clipping merrily along apparently without a worry in the world, only to get gut-punched this week.

 

[Tennessee_ATO]

I forget who runs the sim for the final cut based on Dodds numbers for the Monday Nite players, but that would be a nice addition to the thread. I'm sitting at 131.3 plus Royal.

I'm guessing 138-140ish or so.

I get 136.7 using Dodds numbers, but that assumes that all FG's are <40 yards since he doesn't break them out by distance.

At 136.25, here's hoping for a defensive struggle.

Yeah, I'm done at 135...so looks like what we really need is a quiet night from Decker and McGahee and we should be good.

Definitely want all you thread regulars to survive to week 7. Although I got three of my RL buddies to enter the contest this year (still waiting on my commission check, Joe). All four of us are still alive, but three of us are very close to the cutline this week and all three of us are relying in part on Eric Decker to keep us alive. I don't feel like staying up to watch the whole game tonight so I'm hoping Decker has 100 yds and 2 TDs by halftime so I can rest easy.

I'm pulling for you, Iggy, although there is some selfishness at play for me. I'm facing Thomas in 1 of my leagues with a 15 point cushion. But hey, if Decker going off helps me and gives you the assist you need to advance, it's a win-win for sure.

 

[FF Ninja]

Here are the results of plugging in Dodds's MNF projections in for each week, and where the actual cut line ended up. I guess I didn't do this last week. I see above Modog got 136.70 for this week's cutline, I got 136.90 but close enough.

Week	Dodds	Actual2	145.30	139.603	163.15	161.904	154.65	156.755	------	128.456	136.90	??????

Ugh. If that's the case, then I'm out. Around 112 with just Decker and Prater to go. Something like -6 and -7 respectively. Time to remove the link from my sig... Just couldn't buy a TD this week.

 

[mrip541]

Jordy Nelson bailed me out big time this week! Already improving on last year's week 5 exit.

 

[kardplayer]

kardplayer sighting!Are you doing the OA standings in the WOC contest this year?

Can't do it this year - too swamped at work!

 

[wollac]

Current Cutoff = 126.95

Team Flyjetz = 127.15 (Prater -19.0)

So much for my 30-man team that was averaging 199.2 per week so far. Just a colossal no-show by my roster. I need a Denver win of 33-0, with 11 FG's by Prater for any shot.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Here are the results of plugging in Dodds's MNF projections in for each week, and where the actual cut line ended up. I guess I didn't do this last week. I see above Modog got 136.70 for this week's cutline, I got 136.90 but close enough.

Week	Dodds	Actual2	145.30	139.603	163.15	161.904	154.65	156.755	------	128.456	136.90	??????

Saw Royal is questionable. I'm out if he doesn't play. Ridley/Mendy/Benson/Wilson picked a bad week to all stink. Big thumbs down to Chandler too.

Rooting for you GB

 

[kutta]

I should survive this week. I thought you guys might want to see another 18-guy team, with Stafford as the QB. I have McCoy on bye next week, and Foster after that. But I made it through Stafford, Calvin, and Graham's bye weeks.

Matthew Stafford

Blaine Gabbert

Arian Foster

LeSean McCoy

David Wilson

Evan Royster

Calvin Johnson

Victor Cruz

Anquan Boldin

Davone Bess

Danny Amendola

Eddie Royal

Jimmy Graham

Antonio Gates

Jason Hanson

Shaun Suisham

Arizona Cardinals

Carolina Panthers

 

[Jed]

kardplayer sighting!Are you doing the OA standings in the WOC contest this year?

Can't do it this year - too swamped at work!

Understood. If you PM me how you did it (if it's not too complicated), I may be able to take it over.

 

[QuizGuy66]

Moving on to week 7.

You're not out of the woods yet. You're most likely going to need Antonio Gates to put up some points to keep you ahead of the cutline, and he hasn't exactly been lighting it up this year.

Now he can -QG

 

[Project Mayhem]

GATES!

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

:sigh:

If I get eliminated because Eric Decker tripped over his own feet en route to the end zone I will be mildly upset.

 

[Saint]

I'll play as well so you can all laugh at my averages. Somehow just skating by each week, which, if it happens the whole way to the 250, I'll be quite happy about.

QB- 25.80

RB1- 20.40

RB2- 14.87

WR1- 22.77

WR2- 8.45 :(

WR3- 7.02 :X

TE- 17.52

Flex- 14.75

PK- 16.83

TD- 11.00

Total- 159.44

With my WR 2 and WR 3 underperforming the way they are, I am not hopeful for the long-term. Really need these guys to step it up.

 

[HairySasquatch]

Well....I guess if SD was going to go off, it's best that only two guys are doing it (Gates and Rivers). I'm still waiting for a Prater to hit a field goal....but the farther they fall behind, the less likely we will see FG's from Denver.

 

[ctriopelle]

Really would have rather seen Gates crap the bed tonight. I'd rather have my studs play like crap after I'm across the line...

 

[Project Mayhem]

Gates has me at 142 now, hope it's enough

 

[LHUCKS]

Moving on to week 7.

You're not out of the woods yet. You're most likely going to need Antonio Gates to put up some points to keep you ahead of the cutline, and he hasn't exactly been lighting it up this year.

Now he can -QG

whew, closer than I thought.Really need guys like Ridley/Bennett/Amendola/Blackmon/Garcon to give me some depth and I'm not sure how promising that is looking. Benson and Amendola injuries hit me hard this week.Unless some of those players pick it up I could see a week 8 or 9 exit.ETA: I've got Gates/McCoy/Julio on bye next week. Purposely front loaded my byes.

 

[pizzatyme]

136.5 with McGahee, Ronnie Brown, and Decker all adding to my score. Will I make it?

 

[kevzilla]

I knew Gates would go off at some point. But props to Quentin Jammer for catching a ball thrown right in his gut and getting it back to the house...though it looked like he had a piano on his back at the end.SD now three points past Buffalo's score.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Totally Unofficial Halftime Cutline Update: 132.45

 

[pizzatyme]

140.1 feeling better!

 

[pizzatyme]

Byes left:

7- McGahee (Luck), Ronnie Brown, Decker, Falcons

8- Schaub, Daniels

9- Tebow, Crabtree, Steven E. Smith, Kendricks

10- Skelton, Benson, Royster, Hankerson

11- Tynes, Seahawks

My RBs have been my weakness (by design), this week I need M. Bush to pull his weight.

 

[QuizGuy66]

Operation Gabbert in effect for me next week (why oh why did Locker have to get hurt)



Just peeked at the week 7 schedule - there are only 2 4pm games: Jets at New England and Jacksonville at Oakland. The 506 coverage map will look like Reagan vs Mondale I bet.

-QG

 

[QuizGuy66]

My week 7 lineup minus byes and injuries:

QB - Gabbert

RB - Foster Lynch Royster then the sketchier T Jones and K Smith

WR - Dez Titus Blackmon Manningham Broyles

TE - Hernandez Gresham Olsen (wonder where my flex is coming from...)

PK - Bironas Nugent

DEF - Bengals Jets Saints

Typing it all out like that I am suddenly much much more afraid this coming week

I was supposed to be missing 5 of my 27 guys but instead will be missing at least 8 and possibly 9 or 10 with Jones and Smith.

-QG

 

[pizzatyme]

My week #7 lineup:

QB-Schaub, Luck, Skelton?

RB-M. Bush, Mendy, R. Jennings, K. Smith, Royster, Taiwan Jones

WR-Calvin, Dez, Antonio Brown, M. Crabtree, Steve E. Smith, Hankerson

TE-Owen Daniels, Olsen, Kendricks

Ks

Ds

If I can get anything approaching 15 points from my RBs, I feel like I can move on.

Thoughts?

 

[Saint]

Every week Starters:

[*]NONE



Dead weight: (Meaning never used)

[*]RB: Royster ($3)

[*]WR: Brown ($6) -- Not unexpected, I picked him up for the last half of the season

[*]WR: Jean ($3)

[*]WR: Broyles ($2)

[*]TE: Kendricks ($9) :X



Usage: (Meaning I have used the players at least once to contribute to my score)

[*]QB: 3 of 3 used

[*]RB: 5 of 6 used ($3 wasted)

[*]WR: 8 of 11 used ($11 wasted)

[*]TE: 2 of 3 used ($9 wasted)

[*]PK: 3 of 3 used

[*]TD: 3 of 3 used

[*]OVERALL: 24 of 29 used to date ($23 wasted to date)

Updated for Week 6... Congrats to Josh Freeman for finally being valuable one week.Week 7 bye players: Tannehill, Brown, Baldwin, Royal, Gates, Henery, Miami D

 

[solorca]

Thanks to a big game from Decker, I'm up to about 133. I think it will still leave me a little short, but I have a fighting chance.

Every Week Starters

Marshawn Lynch (even with his low score this week)

Houston Texans Defense

Used 5/6 Weeks

Percy Harvin

Eric Decker

Tom Brady

Never Used

Pittsburgh Steelers Defense

Only Used One

Jake Locker

Peyton Hillis

Jonathan Dwyer

Titus Young

Nate Kaeding

Kendall Hunter

 

[aburt19]

:sigh:If I get eliminated because Eric Decker tripped over his own feet en route to the end zone I will be mildly upset.

At least he got the points for a touchdown later, but it sure would be nice to have two TD by Decker.

 

[RJS113]

I was one of the few that drafted Stafford as their only QB and survived his bye last week. Now I'm having my best week yet at 207 with Decker, McGahee and Gates still going. But I'll need a miracle to survive week 11 with Bradshaw and Harvin on byes, so it probably won't matter (if I even make it that far).