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***Official 2014 World Cup Thread*** (4 Viewers)

NewlyRetired said:
"Good said:
Didn't JK say something similar about wanting to avoid Manaus? Are there going to be snakes in the locker room? :oldunsure:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/soccer/news/20131205/manaus-mayor-we-dont-want-to-host-england.ap/
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JK just said every manager he talked to wanted to avoid Manaus.
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Given how gutless Portugal is, maybe the jungle will work against them more than it will us.

Silver gives the following probabilities for advancement:

Germany: 92%

Portugal: 40%

USA: 39%

Ghana: 29%

 
Steve Tasker said:
Interesting that people speculting the Brits will be happy with their draw. I'm pretty happy with Italy's draw, to be honest. England just isn't that good.
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Of the South America seeded teams I think Uruguay is the one you want. Costa Rica is beatable. Italy being the 9th team is tough for England but also for Uruguay - could be better but could be worse for England. Also, if they do mange to advance they have a decent draw.

 
Area51Inhabitant said:
Sammy3469 said:
The Z Machine said:
Germany will thin that half the US team are Germans that couldn't crack their national team. I hope that a) makes them underestimate us, and b) puts a chip on the German-American players' shoulders that will fight tooth and nail to hang with their countrymen.

Germany is dangerous in all facets, but they are very dangerous on set-pieces. The US attacks set-pieces well, but doesn't defend them as well. That should be a focus in training I imagine. Conditioning and prep for the travel, heat, and humidity will also be huge concerns. Germany may also wilt in Game 3 if they've locked down 6 points through the first two games.
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This
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I have to admit. This could be an interesting scenario. Would the Germans rest some key players with the idea of giving JK the best possible chance at a result?
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Even if they did, their backups still have more talent than the US and are probably pissed off about losing in DC.

 
Area51Inhabitant said:
Sammy3469 said:
The Z Machine said:
Germany will thin that half the US team are Germans that couldn't crack their national team. I hope that a) makes them underestimate us, and b) puts a chip on the German-American players' shoulders that will fight tooth and nail to hang with their countrymen.

Germany is dangerous in all facets, but they are very dangerous on set-pieces. The US attacks set-pieces well, but doesn't defend them as well. That should be a focus in training I imagine. Conditioning and prep for the travel, heat, and humidity will also be huge concerns. Germany may also wilt in Game 3 if they've locked down 6 points through the first two games.
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This
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I have to admit. This could be an interesting scenario. Would the Germans rest some key players with the idea of giving JK the best possible chance at a result?
Click to expand...
They might rest players carrying yellow cards but you won't see whole sale subs I don't think.

It is very rare that any team wraps up top of group after 2 games.

 
Nate Silver says US chances of advancing dropped from about 45% to 39%.

Interestingly says we should be favored against Ghana and that we're close to Portugal (who he gives a 40% chance of advancing).

 
It's a tough draw but a fair one. I like it because it's three tasty games. And to quote renowned soccer authority Robert Griffith III, "no pressure, no diamonds." We're either ready to win big games or we're not.

 
NewlyRetired said:
Area51Inhabitant said:
Sammy3469 said:
The Z Machine said:
Germany will thin that half the US team are Germans that couldn't crack their national team. I hope that a) makes them underestimate us, and b) puts a chip on the German-American players' shoulders that will fight tooth and nail to hang with their countrymen.

Germany is dangerous in all facets, but they are very dangerous on set-pieces. The US attacks set-pieces well, but doesn't defend them as well. That should be a focus in training I imagine. Conditioning and prep for the travel, heat, and humidity will also be huge concerns. Germany may also wilt in Game 3 if they've locked down 6 points through the first two games.
Click to expand...
This
Click to expand...
I have to admit. This could be an interesting scenario. Would the Germans rest some key players with the idea of giving JK the best possible chance at a result?
Click to expand...
They might rest players carrying yellow cards but you won't see whole sale subs I don't think.

It is very rare that any team wraps up top of group after 2 games.
Click to expand...
If the US is sitting on 4 and Germany is on 6, I think you could see some funny business.

 
Good Posting Judge said:
NewlyRetired said:
"Good said:
Didn't JK say something similar about wanting to avoid Manaus? Are there going to be snakes in the locker room? :oldunsure:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/soccer/news/20131205/manaus-mayor-we-dont-want-to-host-england.ap/
Click to expand...
JK just said every manager he talked to wanted to avoid Manaus.
Click to expand...
Given how gutless Portugal is, maybe the jungle will work against them more than it will us.

Silver gives the following probabilities for advancement:

Germany: 92%

Portugal: 40%

USA: 39%

Ghana: 29%
Click to expand...
He'll redo these numbers once I inform him that I will be drinking cocktails.

 
Silver strikes me as someone that's never watched a game of soccer in his lifetime.

His 'odds' are strictly based on maybe fifa world rankings.

If I were putting odds on the group to advance, I'd say Germany has to be about 78% and the other three teams about 40% each. It's a three game group, lots of crazy results can happen. Putting a team at 90+% to advance is foolish.

 
Ramsay Hunt Experience said:
It's a tough draw but a fair one. I like it because it's three tasty games. And to quote renowned soccer authority Robert Griffith III, "no pressure, no diamonds." We're either ready to win big games or we're not.
Click to expand...
:goodposting:

I agree wholeheartedly. It's fun to root for an easy draw and see the US luck its way into the round of 16, but it's time to put up or shut up for the US. If they can make the next round here, then they can start to gain respect from the European and SA powerhouses. Until then, you'll continue to hear the Ballards of this world laugh their chances off anytime they face a halfway difficult draw.

 
Highlight of the tournament for me will be watching Suarez chew Ashley Young's arm off, draw four PKs while scoring nine, and get Wayne Rooney red carded.

 
guru_007 said:
Silver strikes me as someone that's never watched a game of soccer in his lifetime.

His 'odds' are strictly based on maybe fifa world rankings.

If I were putting odds on the group to advance, I'd say Germany has to be about 78% and the other three teams about 40% each. It's a three game group, lots of crazy results can happen. Putting a team at 90+% to advance is foolish.
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Argentina is probably 95%+

 
If it hasn't been mentioned yet, at least we play Ghana first and Germany might take it easy if they already have 6 points.

That hasn't been said yet, right?

 
fatguyinalittlecoat said:
guru_007 said:
Putting a team at 90+% to advance is foolish.
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Are you saying in this group or generally? Seems like Argentina's gotta be way more than a 90% chance of advancing.
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Sorry, I should have qualified it with in this group in particular.Yes, if a team has a very weak group, sure they would be 90+, hell closer to 95% to advance. Just look at CL draws.

But, in my eyes, Ghana has just as much chance to advance as Portugal or the U.S. does. If Ghana wins the first game on a dodgy pk, can you not see them advancing? And Germany is certainly not invincible as a side. They are solid and deep, but this is not a club team, it's a national team. Guys don't always click right off the bat and training as a side is limited.

 
Argentina's going to have a difficult time, as they'll have to play four opponents (Bosnia, Iran, Herzegovenia, Nigeria) as opposed to the normal 3.

 
Sinn Fein said:
I wonder if this gives Cameron a shot at starting at right back, at least against Portugal.
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It will depend on the Ghana game. If Evans gets torched, we could easily see a change but if they pull off a result and Evans puts in his typical "not great not sucking" type game, I don't see JK making a change.

 
AAABatteries said:
Steve Tasker said:
Interesting that people speculting the Brits will be happy with their draw. I'm pretty happy with Italy's draw, to be honest. England just isn't that good.
Click to expand...
Of the South America seeded teams I think Uruguay is the one you want. Costa Rica is beatable. Italy being the 9th team is tough for England but also for Uruguay - could be better but could be worse for England. Also, if they do mange to advance they have a decent draw.
Click to expand...
Well Italy's schedule (Manaus,Recife, Natal) is almost as brutal as the US's. I tend to think Uruguay and England are the favorites to advance just based on that. That first England/ Italy game in Manaus may be really really boring.

 
guru_007 said:
fatguyinalittlecoat said:
guru_007 said:
Putting a team at 90+% to advance is foolish.
Click to expand...
Are you saying in this group or generally? Seems like Argentina's gotta be way more than a 90% chance of advancing.
Click to expand...
Sorry, I should have qualified it with in this group in particular.Yes, if a team has a very weak group, sure they would be 90+, hell closer to 95% to advance. Just look at CL draws.

But, in my eyes, Ghana has just as much chance to advance as Portugal or the U.S. does. If Ghana wins the first game on a dodgy pk, can you not see them advancing? And Germany is certainly not invincible as a side. They are solid and deep, but this is not a club team, it's a national team. Guys don't always click right off the bat and training as a side is limited.
Click to expand...
My first inclination is that Ghana and Germany go through. I think Portugal has been living off their reputation for awhile. They did have a nice result at Euro 2012, but they've almost missed the last 2 World Cups.

I think it's natural to think of them as a European power, but they're really not. I think they're a bit better than the US on paper, but I think they're certainly beatable. Of the three group stage opponents, I view them as the worst. No shtick, Gator.

 
92% implies what about -1100 odds to advance out of group stage?

We'll see what the gambling markets have Germany lined up as. I would be extremely surprised if they were anywhere close to -1000 to advance.

 
A host of friendly games world wide should be available soon now that everyone knows their group.

US already has South Korea lined up.

Obviously finding a team similar Ghana would be great although I have no idea who that would be. I would prefer another team in tne WC, maybe someone like Nigeria?

 
Initial glance at lines has Ghana as a slight favorite over the U.S. (Ghana +140 to win vs US +175 to win)

But, Germany is -222 to beat Ghana and the U.S. so obviously both teams are rated near equal

Of course these lines are VERY preliminary, being that the tournament is 6 months away.

 
I can't get over how easy Argentina's draw is. No tropical games the entire tourney. That group. Presumably a tired Spain (or Dutch) in the semi's (whoever they face there will have played their previous 2 games in the tropics).

The other huge winner is France (conspiracy theorists unite). One tropical game in Salvador. Skip going to Manaus while Switzerland does. Wouldn't be shocked if they were the only European team in the semi's.

 
Seems very likely at Uruguay, Argentina, Brazil, and Columbia will all advance.

Chile and Ecuador both in groups with decent chances.

 
Area51Inhabitant said:
Sammy3469 said:
The Z Machine said:
Germany will thin that half the US team are Germans that couldn't crack their national team. I hope that a) makes them underestimate us, and b) puts a chip on the German-American players' shoulders that will fight tooth and nail to hang with their countrymen.

Germany is dangerous in all facets, but they are very dangerous on set-pieces. The US attacks set-pieces well, but doesn't defend them as well. That should be a focus in training I imagine. Conditioning and prep for the travel, heat, and humidity will also be huge concerns. Germany may also wilt in Game 3 if they've locked down 6 points through the first two games.
Click to expand...
This
Click to expand...
I have to admit. This could be an interesting scenario. Would the Germans rest some key players with the idea of giving JK the best possible chance at a result?
Click to expand...
They are ridiculously deep. We would still be big underdogs.

 
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