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*** Official 2016 AtlanticHurricane Season thread *** (4 Viewers)

Baloney Sandwich said:
Some pretty big wind gusts down here in Saunderstown, a huge tree on my property snapped off this afternoon while I was outside stacking firewood. 

I've got some giant trees surrounding my house, ive got to drop about a dozen of them this Fall. 
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I forgot you were that close.  Do you go to the beach club?

 
Welp. Matthew exploded today from a T.S. to a Category 4 hurricane. RIP Jamaica. Hell, the damn thing wasn't far off from making landfall over Columbia today.

Tracking has it going more west, which means it gets a bigger chunk of Cuba to worry about. The forecast track is interesting because, if you look at historical hurricanes that are usually in this position, they track far more west. 

 
Ridge to the NE and trough to the west is "supposed" to steer it north then likely northeast. Could be a close call for FL. Hoping as it rounds the ridge it turns to the NE, otherwise Carolinas could be in the path. Cuba mtns will weaken it some but it looks like it will still be a Cat 2 on the other side.

 
Wonderful board. As a guy named Matthew, I'm glad my hurricane isn't wimpy, but hope it doesn't come to visit. Hope Jamaica, Cuba and Haiti don't get it too bad.

 
3C's said:
And now a Cat5 (160mph). Jamaica/Cuba/Haiti gonna get it bad. :(
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Yup. Matthew benefited from A. finding a nice, quiet spot of low shear in the Caribbean (Hurricane Wilma in 2005 benefited from similar circumstances) and B. not being in a particular hurry.

 
Getting a little nervous here in SC.  Fortunately, most models suggest M will veer off into the Atlantic after it slams the Carribean.  But, still...models unreliable >4 days out, so we are watching closely here.

 
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The euro model, which tends to be better with long range forecasts (though it did have some Gulf paths with this which were wrong), says out to sea. Sure hope this is the case. GFS doesn't agree. Looks like an eyewall regeneration is going on. Hopefully the hurricane guys and models have a better handle on it tomorrow.

 
3C's said:
The euro model, which tends to be better with long range forecasts (though it did have some Gulf paths with this which were wrong), says out to sea. Sure hope this is the case. GFS doesn't agree. Looks like an eyewall regeneration is going on. Hopefully the hurricane guys and models have a better handle on it tomorrow.
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Matthew is unlike any other hurricane, it's doing some funky stuff.  I doubt we'll have much clarity until Tuesday/Wednesday.  But, of course, I'll be hitting F5-F5-F5 all weekend, anyway.

 
Back to 150mph and down to 940mb. Other than the mountains it will come across there's not much out there to weaken it. Lower wind shear, moist air, and very warm sea water.

 
3C's said:
Back to 150mph and down to 940mb. Other than the mountains it will come across there's not much out there to weaken it. Lower wind shear, moist air, and very warm sea water.
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Who's your go-to source for the best, most timely info?

 
cobalt_27 said:
Matthew is unlike any other hurricane, it's doing some funky stuff.  I doubt we'll have much clarity until Tuesday/Wednesday.  But, of course, I'll be hitting F5-F5-F5 all weekend, anyway.
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I'm really concerned about the way things are set up. It's going to be a close call.

 
cobalt_27 said:
Who's your go-to source for the best, most timely info?
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I'm all over the place. Tropicaltidbits.com is Levi Cowan and he's becoming the "guru" of the regular folks. Jeff Masters at wunderground.com has a lot of information in his blogs, and many of the people commenting have good info (definitely timely) and know what they're talking about. Like any comment section though there's good and bad. I take what limited knowledge I have and use the info from NHC and some others to try to merge that with other info I read, but in the end you have to rely on the experts at NHC.I also follow several FB weather guys but that's a mixed bag for sure.

 
Just read about "initialization errors" with the GFS. Supposedly the model run started with Mathew as a Cat 1 rather than a 4. And supposedly weaker storms track more west (they get pulled toward the coast) and stronger storms track more east. That would explain why GFS is tracking further west than the Euro. Hope so...

 
If the GFS is right, and long range it has it making landfall somewhere in Eastern NC, they are screwed...but we will get it bad here (SE Va). It's been raining for what feels like 2 weeks. Totally saturated. It'll be Irene/Isabel all over again.

 
3C's said:
If the GFS is right, and long range it has it making landfall somewhere in Eastern NC, they are screwed...but we will get it bad here (SE Va). It's been raining for what feels like 2 weeks. Totally saturated. It'll be Irene/Isabel all over again.
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That's not good down there with all those pine trees and their shallow roots

 
Uruk-Hai said:
That's not good down there with all those pine trees and their shallow roots
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Isabel: no power for a week.

Irene: no power for about 10 days, which sucked even more since where we lived then (and now) has a well. No power, no water. Think I'll finally call an electrician about putting in a transfer switch.

 
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One of the FB guys said Haiti could get 25" of rain. Thought he was off his rocker. Guess not.

NHC warns that rainfall could total 15” to 25” in southern Haiti, with localized amounts as high as 40” possible.

 
3C's said:
One of the FB guys said Haiti could get 25" of rain. Thought he was off his rocker. Guess not.

NHC warns that rainfall could total 15” to 25” in southern Haiti, with localized amounts as high as 40” possible.
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That will lead to a crazy amount of death if that happens.

 
PIK95 said:
That will lead to a crazy amount of death if that happens.
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It's going to be bad. Mudslides, massive flooding. Official track has shifted a little east, right over western Haiti. That's bad for Haiti and also means very little weakening now after it clears Cuba/Haiti/Jamaica.

 
Any updates on where it looks like it will hit east coast or if it will stay out to sea? What's the most reliable resource to follow? This sucks. 

 
GoBirds said:
Any updates on where it looks like it will hit east coast or if it will stay out to sea? What's the most reliable resource to follow? This sucks. 
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No. Too many wild cards right now. Florida is not out of the woods but it seems less likely it will make landfall there. Same with the Gulf. Carolinas seem like a good possibility if it does make landfall but right now it's just as likely to curl to the east and miss the mid-Atlantic entirely. Most reliable source is NHC. Plenty of other blogs/sites to get info but they'll all say the same thing, NHC is the one.

 
Gawain said:
The 6 am runs don't have a track that pushes out to sea. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/14L_gefs_latest.png

The Bay of Fundy is already a giant funnel, can't imagine the storm surge you'd get out of a storm going right up the pipe.
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Yeah, in my post I said miss the mid-Atlantic. Many seem to feel it could get close to the Carolina's but not make landfall, go NE for a bit and then turn back to the N/NW and make landfall around Maine or Canadian Maritimes.

models

 
3C's said:
Yeah, in my post I said miss the mid-Atlantic. Many seem to feel it could get close to the Carolina's but not make landfall, go NE for a bit and then turn back to the N/NW and make landfall around Maine or Canadian Maritimes.

models
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Wasn't implying that you were stating that it was going to miss everything. Think that was the first run that had a hit somewhere on the East Coast. Meanwhile, the 11 am NHC basically has Matthew threading the needle between Haiti and Cuba. That would be bad news for the Bahamas.

 
Gawain said:
Wasn't implying that you were stating that it was going to miss everything. Think that was the first run that had a hit somewhere on the East Coast. Meanwhile, the 11 am NHC basically has Matthew threading the needle between Haiti and Cuba. That would be bad news for the Bahamas.
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I just wanted to make sure no one thought I felt it would be OTS/miss all of the US. Not that anyone should listen to me anyway. ;)

 
3C's said:
I just wanted to make sure no one thought I felt it would be OTS/miss all of the US. Not that anyone should listen to me anyway. ;)
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I always feel a little guilty when I post in here, After Sandy, I have a bit of an obsession over tropical (or post-tropical) storms, but it's not like I know what the heck I'm talking about.

Meanwhile a buddy of mine was a meteorologist in the air force for 10 years and now forecasts for an airport and he couldn't care less.

 
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