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***Official*** 2016 Dynasty Value Assessment Thread (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Pwingles
- Start date
Yea, that's really terrible. Last year I had the 1.01 & 1.03. The guy with the 1.02 offered me AJ Green straight for the 1.03 (he was big on Cooper & wanted to pair him with Melvin Gordon at the 1.02). I took Green for the 1.03 and immediately flipped him for the 1.04 and a 2017 first (ended up being top 3). People here skewered me for that trade and I agreed with them but I saw something in White that I wanted.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Well the only reason I brought it up here is to give an indication of where Green is being valued, whether right or wrong. My guess is other Green owners would be more stingy. Just because I've seen reference to a couple of cheap buys on him doesn't mean I can go get him that cheap. But maybe I'll try!
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Kevin White and Corey Davis/Juju/Dupree is probably a solid swap for Green. Or if you prefer one of the top backs. Just being a smart-###, but if you know, past tense, that it is a top 3 pick, can you lend me your time machine so I can place a few other bets? I'd make sure to top off the Mr. Fusion before I brought it back.
steelers1080
Footballguy
I was wondering if he meant 2016? I'd much rather have the top 3 2017. Chubb, Fournette, or Juju + White is about right for AJ. It's unproven, but loaded with potential.barackdhouse said:
White + someone from Treadwell/Coleman/Doctson/Henry, or some other WR from this year that you like isn't quite as good.
Yea, it's going to be this. I could likely flip it into the 2017 class (and roll the dice/kick the can down the road), but I'm a believer in Treadwell and will likely roll with him.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Yeah ok, well depending on landing spots I would still call that a fair swap for Green.
steelers1080
Footballguy
If you'd get Treadwell then I like that too. Not a huge Henry fan.
What is Matt Stafford's value right now and what is he really worth?
I think he's a bit overvalued at the moment since he ended the season so well with Cooter. Teams now have game tape on his plays and can prepare, shouldn't that make it a bit harder on Stafford? I'm trying to figure out what WR/RB/QB combo is worth Stafford. Derek Carr straight up since he's younger?
Yea, I have a suspicion it's going to be Treadwell. If Treadwell gets snapped up then I'm kinda torn between Doctson and Henry. It'll probably be the WR because if #2 didn't grab Henry then it means he didn't go to a good spot.
Stafford value? Well, he's 28 - so technically he's entering/in his prime which should last for at least 3+ years. He lost one of the, if not the greatest, WR of our generation - and I don't think you just sign Matt Jones and think Ebron will evolve to replace that talent. I'd say Stafford's ceiling is Roethlisberger. I'm not a fan of Derek Carr, so if I had Carr and could swap for Stafford I'd do that regardless of age. That might be a fair trade.
I was under the impression that Carr is in the top 10 dynasty QBs right now, and Stafford...well, isn't
Pwingles
Footballguy
i feel like both statements here are true
stafford for me is totally fine in a dyno, start 1 qb league as your no. 1 guy, but you need at least one other guy who is closely valued to stream, imo. Ryan, Tyrod, or fitz. Or maybe two other guys in a tier lower, but are capable weekly like cutty, alex smith, etc.
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Pwingles
Footballguy
I like duke, hate his situation. I feel like people want the Gio=Duke this year thing to happen so badly, and it might, but prolly with less success
I think he could be a great buy low mid season when the browns O line is bad and he isnt doing as well as people had hoped.
I have tried a few times to acquire him in a couple leagues, with no success. At that point they were too highly invested and had seen enough to keep their hopes up, the price was too high for what wouldve been an RB4 for me.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Pwingles
Footballguy
Pwingles
Footballguy
thanks
Its a good write up, I agree with most of it. I like Carr a lot though and think that he might be being undervalued. Could argue Stafford is being undervalued in this discussion, but i not sure i put him top 5.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
had the Aaron Rodgers owner approach me in Superflex. He wants a ton. I offered him Mike Evans straight up. He wanted Freeman. I said no.
jeaton6
Footballguy
Sabertooth
Footballguy
He sent me a very convoluted 6 man deal. I don't understand why Freeman gets so undervalued. He scored over 100 more points than Gurley or David Johnson and he's an afterthought to those guys.
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jeaton6
Footballguy
I agree he is undervalued and if he puts together season similar to last year the value will go way up. People are concerned about his downward trend towards end of the year, Coleman being healthy and thereby forcing timeshare, etc.Sabertooth said:
Many quote the 4 huge games and then YPC sucking and downward trend yet they ignore DJ having one huge game and the rest just being so-so. If Freeman's 4 game stretch happened weeks 12-15 his startup ADP would be in the Teens rather than mid to late 20's. As it is Johnsons huge game happened week 15 and now he's the guy with the mid teens ADP (he'll be 25 y/o before end of season too so already starting to lose value
)In fairness to the detractors that 4 game (28% of games played excluding the 6 snap game) stretch accounted for 700 of his 1,600 yards accumulated in 14 games he played (excluding the one he only played 6 snaps) or 44% and 9 of his 14 TDs 64% of his annual totals. He didn't have 4 YPC in any of his last 6 games (excluding 6 snap game).
If Freeman starts the year strong he will be the man and people are going to start paying up for him.
slackjawedyokel
Footballguy
Same thing happens to me. I tried to trade for him just because I have Crowell and the guy wanted Allen Robinson plus a pick... Nearly choked on my kombucha.Pwingles said:
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Great points all. However his 4 game stretch was the sixth best stretch ever for a RB for four games. Here is an article Chase Stuart wrote a year ago.I agree he is undervalued and if he puts together season similar to last year the value will go way up. People are concerned about his downward trend towards end of the year, Coleman being healthy and thereby forcing timeshare, etc.
Many quote the 4 huge games and then YPC sucking and downward trend yet they ignore DJ having one huge game and the rest just being so-so. If Freeman's 4 game stretch happened weeks 12-15 his startup ADP would be in the Teens rather than mid to late 20's. As it is Johnsons huge game happened week 15 and now he's the guy with the mid teens ADP (he'll be 25 y/o before end of season too so already starting to lose value
In fairness to the detractors that 4 game (28% of games played excluding the 6 snap game) stretch accounted for 700 of his 1,600 yards accumulated in 14 games he played (excluding the one he only played 6 snaps) or 44% and 9 of his 14 TDs 64% of his annual totals. He didn't have 4 YPC in any of his last 6 games (excluding 6 snap game).
If Freeman starts the year strong he will be the man and people are going to start paying up for him.
http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=stuart-leveon-bell-4-game-stretches
If this is accurate (I'm assuming it is) then Freeman's 136 (.5 points for PPR to match up with the article) points in weeks 3-6 was second only to Ladainian Tomlinson's blistering 168.5 points scored in 2006.
Look at the names on that list. You have Tomlinson (a couple times), Faulk (couple times), Larry Johnson, Jim Brown, Steven Jackson. Devonta Freeman, Fred Taylor and Leveon Bell. That's a murderers row.
It isn't like Freeman got hot and then went away either. From weeks 7 to 17, he was still RB8 (RB7 from 12-17). Ahead of David Johnson, Buck Allen, and Jeremy Langford.
And all this in kind of a mulligan year for the Falcons. They were a mess.
eta: Freeman is 3 months younger than David Johnson as well.
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Pwingles
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Price check on Brandon Marshall? Let's assume Fitzpatrick gets resigned and that Marshall is able to stay healthy (other than one run of bad luck in Chicago two years ago the guy has been an athletic machine). Can he keep up a high level of play until 35? Similar to Anquon Boldin? Boldin had 85/1179/7 in his age 33 season. This will be Marshall's age 32 season and would likely get more targets in that New York offense than Boldin in SF that year. Age 34 Boldin had 83/1062/5. Is he worth rolling with for another couple years or sell high? If so, how high?
Pwingles
Footballguy
if you arent competing and can get a mid 1st for him, id say thats fair. If you are competing, im not sure anyone would offer you a mid first, and i would rather just take his numbers this year, and a probable hit on his value next year, as opposed to selling him off for a dart throw in the 2nd.
I would sell for a mid 1, as a buyer, I would cite age and argue his value is lower and only going to be lower and prolly not offer more than a 2, or maybe a couple of 2's
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Two second round picks compared to a 1st round pick might be like two dimes compared to a quarter. Yet you could likely sell those two 2nd round picks for a future first I think with another player of interest perhaps to seal the deal.
jeaton6
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
A week before the draft. Likely not.
At another point of the season I could see being able to swing deals like that.
At another point of the season I could see being able to swing deals like that.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
I've made multiple trades of 2016 2nd for 2017 1st. Sometimes throwing in a little more, but nothing close to the value of another 2nd. As the draft gets closer, those 2nd's become even more valuable. I'm confident I'll get at least two more done across my three leagues, people want instant turnaround.
Every league and owner are different. But in my leagues several teams won't even trade a 2017 1st for the 1.6 this year. I have never seen in any of my leagues a trade of a 2nd for a future 1st. Next years draft is too good for deals like that. Guys will trade 2017 1sts but it takes a lot.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Right, I'm sure there are league where people won't. But Jeaton said he didn't see anyone doing that, so I was just reassuring that they are out there. I've been turned down a lot more than I've had accepted, but it can still get done. Draft day when those 2nd's are OTC and Braxton Miller is still on the board is the best time to make those moves. I'm getting short on 2nd's though
coolnerd
Footballguy
I am pretty sure that there have entire threads over the history of this board concerning how a current years 2nd is equal to the next year's first. Honestly, I pretty sure i have been on both sides of this type of trade and see them every year. In fact, the leagues that do it the most are full of so-called FBGs especially those who think they good enough at "talent evaluation where the guy traing the 1st need out of his favorite prospects.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
The biggest opportunity is when they are OTC. A guy at 1.08 agonizing over Mariotta or Algohor might be shocked when he takes Algohor and Mariotta is still there at 2.04. In his mind, Mariotta was worth 1.08 had Algohor not been there, so he doesn't feel like he's trading a future 1st for a 2nd, he feels like he's trading a future first for 1.08. I've been there. Never gave up the future 1st, but I get being a little more willing to overpay since I'm getting a guy I have rated much higher at that point. I'm guessing most of us have.
That's the other reason I prefer to wait until draft day - I want to see who slides. Last year Dorsett at 2.06 is the kind of pick I just make rather than shopping for future picks, which is the same net as giving up a future 1st for 2.06 when opportunity cost is factored in.
That's the other reason I prefer to wait until draft day - I want to see who slides. Last year Dorsett at 2.06 is the kind of pick I just make rather than shopping for future picks, which is the same net as giving up a future 1st for 2.06 when opportunity cost is factored in.
I recall many of them as well, with both sides making some good arguments either way. Personally I land on the side that that adage is a load of BS most of the time, the time value discount is nowhere worth the difference in quality in prospects available in general (the difference between guys taken in the 1st & 2nd of the real draft usually vs guys that went in the late rounds as opposed to the real NFL where a 2nd round player may not be that much worse than a late first round player.) Not to mention the risk of your team tanking due to injuries or father time or whatever.
A guy slides down to 2.02-2.04 that was drafted in the late 1st round of the nfl draft like the Dorsett example, yes I can see someone trading their future first to grab him, I doubt it happens that often though. Most of the time the owner would just be trying to trade up from a later pick or offer some other package in return. People hold future firsts in my leagues pretty tightly though, maybe its different in other leagues. Most years there are only one or two of them traded prior to the seasons start.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
You've really never seen some one trade a future first for a current second on the clock?
I'm not saying it's always the smart thing to do, but it happens and I'm sure sometimes it works out fine. Last year I saw guys like David Johnson, DGB and Jay Ajayi go in the early second. I'm sure some one would be willing to trade a late first for one of those guys right now.
Can I have your crystal ball? I can equally cherry pick names that didn't pan out either. Maybe if MFL wasn't still down I could go back and check, but best I can remember is someone trading a future first for something like the 9 or 10 pick, and I recall pretty clearly as I routinely am the one trading the current late first, no one ever accepts the early second(s) for a first (in my leagues.)Dr. Octopus said:
In no league I'm in would I think anyone would remotely come close to paying a 2017#1 for a second, OTC or otherwise. That's this year, other years are different.
In the 2014 draft someone offered me a 2015#1 while I was OTC at pick 2.7. I took it, they took Allen Robinson.
In the 2014 draft someone offered me a 2015#1 while I was OTC at pick 2.7. I took it, they took Allen Robinson.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Reread my post again, please. I clearly said its not necessarily the smart thing to do but sometimes it could work out.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
It's not about whether or not they hit, heck two of the three names he cited are still very big question marks (one could say all three are). He used names that had a lot of volatility in their rankings and therefore draft position. Ajayi was a top 5 hype guy until he got drafted in the 5th by MIA. DGB was the second coming but improved version of Calvin to some. David Johnson caught fire late in the draft process. All are guys that could potentially be available in the 2nd round, and those names could trigger the future 1st activity. Put another way - if Corey Coleman drops to the third round of the NFL draft, and as a result is available at 2.04 in your rookie draft, and you think your team has a good chance at the playoffs; are you trading your 2017 1st for Coleman? Do you think ZWK would trade his 2017 1st for 2.05 OTC if Caroo were still there?
I wonder how many naysayers are just projecting their own opinions onto what the rest of the league "would" do? Just because you would never trade a 2017 1st for a current 2nd doesn't mean no one will. How many have even tried? I tossed out 2.05 and 3.08 for a 2017 1st as a starting point and it got snap accepted. Whether or not you think it's a "good" trade or one you'd do is irrelevant - it's whether or not the other guy will do it. It's going to take 5 years before you can determine who was right or wrong, and no one's going to get them all right. Many people have contrary opinions, and all you need is someone to think differently than you do.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
What is Adrian Peterson worth in terms of draft picks? Recently acquired him and was looking to maybe flip for a draft pick (I have none until 5.6).
bostonfred
Footballguy
This is ridiculously league dependent. In some leagues a random future first won't get him, in others any first would be snapped up. I would be happy to get a first from the team I traded him to because if the wheels finally fall off that guy will lose a major piece and not have a pick to replace it.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I would not be trading for Peterson at this time. I saw some indications of him declining towards the end of last season.
He could win the rushing title again I suppose but I think this is his last year playing at a level we are used to. I am not sure he will make it through this season without some additional evidence of decline.
If you can get 1st round pick in return for him I think that is something you have to consider taking.
He could win the rushing title again I suppose but I think this is his last year playing at a level we are used to. I am not sure he will make it through this season without some additional evidence of decline.
If you can get 1st round pick in return for him I think that is something you have to consider taking.
beef
Footballguy
ranglerone
Footballguy
Sold Peterson last year in a 16 team, 22 man roster dynasty league, ppr. I got Hyde, the 1.9, and a 2 in 2017. It killed my chances last year, but the time for getting any kind of value is closing rapidly.
Was traded for 1.10 in a league of mine about a month ago, was only league I'm in where I saw him dealt.
bostonfred
Footballguy
14 team non ppr, owner couldn't get a top 8 pick for him.
