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***Official 2016 First Four GOP Primary+Caucus Results Predictions (1 Viewer)

Who Will Win the Nevada Republican Caucus on 2/23/16?

  • Jeb Bush

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Ben Carson

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Chris Christie

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Ted Cruz

    Votes: 3 8.1%

  • Carly Fiorina

    Votes: 1 2.7%

  • Jim Gilmore

    Votes: 1 2.7%

  • Mike Huckabee

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • John Kasich

    Votes: 2 5.4%

  • Rand Paul

    Votes: 1 2.7%

  • Marco Rubio

    Votes: 4 10.8%

  • Rick Santorum

    Votes: 1 2.7%

  • Donald Trump

    Votes: 24 64.9%
  • Total voters
    37
QuizGuy66

QuizGuy66

Footballguy
Well we're 2 weeks out from the first caucuses. Rather than clogging up the political threads, how about we have a pole here for the first 4 states? Please keep it to predictions (with perhaps rationale why) - in the next couple of days I'll take a stab at percentages myself.

I'll have a Democratic Pole up soon as well.

AGAIN PREDICTIONS ONLY - Save the :pokey: for the other threads.

-QG

 
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Ditka Butkus said:
Cruz Trump Cruz Trump
Click to expand...
That's a strong possibility.

NH is all Trump, no question. Nevada would seem to align with Trump, he shares they're zest for gambling.

Trump leads slightly in SC and IA but those states will be interesting to see how many real Trump supporters there truly are.

 
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Cruz, Trump.

However, Kasich surprises and finishes second in NH. This surprise finish devastates the Jeb! campaign and allows the Republican establishment to fully back Kasich. Money starts flowing in. Kasich pulls off a surprise win in SC. Jeb! and Christie drop out of the race, giving their endorsement to Kasich. Kasich steamrolls his way to the nomination. Rubio gets the VP nod.

Sure, it's unlikely but it's the scenario I'm hoping for. I can't stand the idea of a President Trump OR Cruz.

 
I always hate it when people pick the Pats vs x, let's try to be imaginative and have some fun...... we need at least one upset in here.

I'll go Cruz in IA, Kasich in NH, then it's Trump x2 in SC & NV.

 
Cruz, Trump, Trump, Trump.

I think all candidates drop out afterwards except Trump, Cruz, Kasich, Carson, and Rubio. I think Kasich will catch some steam in NH but no way he catches Trump unless he blows up.

 
dschuler said:
Cruz, Trump, Trump, Trump.

I think all candidates drop out afterwards except Trump, Cruz, Kasich, Carson, and Rubio. I think Kasich will catch some steam in NH but no way he catches Trump unless he blows up.
Click to expand...
Cruz missile Iowa, Trump the next 3 weeks, NH and Nevada are his, only real battle might be S.C. but they seem to like Trump some there. Iowa is hard to read at the moment.

Trump aside, I think Cruz, Rubio(Jeb done), Kasich, Carson is on borrowed time and will keep going to sell more books...this is going to fall like this right before Super Tuesday in March where like 12 states go on the 1st.

1. Trump: Likely 2+ of the 1st 4 states, has not dipped into his war chest yet so look out. Has lots of folks endorsing him now.

2. Cruz: He will get crushed on Super Tuesday. If they were all 1 state at a time I might give him more of a chance. Money will dry up quick. Doesn't have that much support within his own party except along the extremities IMHO. Then he attacked the entire NE territory and most major cities, that's always good for votes. I think he will fall back even further after March 1st.

3. Rubio: By default because I think Jeb will go bye bye and kiss n make up with a fellow Floridian where he was the Gov for 8 years. Rubio will start collecting everyone else's that falls out and then you have a better idea of what is really out there for grabs.

4. Kasich: He would be smrt to keep his name going in the race because Trump could always do a couple things. They say he is bulletproof but you never know. So many social media things running now, only takes 1 cell phone(Mitt Romney ring a bell) and the entire country can turn on a guy. Also, Trump could decide this is going to be a little too much for him and enjoy the riches of his Trump brand going forward. He is 69, not gonna live forever although Sanders and Clinton are close to if not at this age already.

My argument has been all along if not Trump then who? Who is out there that Trump is preventing form becoming the next President of the United States? I don't think any of the folks after Trump have any chance in an election vs Hilary Clinton who I think will sustain some early hits like Rocky vs Clubber but then eventually she is going to wear Bernie down. The March super Tuesday for the DNC will be something to watch for sure.

GOP should get mad at themselves for having such terrible candidates and watch a Trump come in and mow the field down. It's funny, maybe not to all but enough folks it is. There are a lot of folks' dads in Trump. He has a little of everyone rolled into his schtick and I think some of it rings for a lot of folks.

 
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Give Cruz a real shot in Iowa. I'd actually give him the slight edge. But after that the Trump army begins to roll.

 
Bumpity for the big day :)

Feel free to throw in some percentage picks here as well. Here's mine.

As a bonus - please put a guess in for home many votes fan favorite Jim Gilmore receives :D

Cruz 28% (I'll stick with my pick - though I got a bit of feeling I'm wrong)

Trump 27%

Rubio 18% (good enough but not quite good enough)

Carson 9% (secret ballot helps - but not enough to save him - 'nuff said)

Paul 5%

Christie 4% Branstad helps - get him about 2 more %

Huckabee 2.5%

Bush 1.9%

Fiorina 1.7%

Santorum 1.5%

Kasich 1.3%

Gilmore 0.1% :pickle: - I predict 120 votes.

-QG

 
QuizGuy66 said:
Bumpity for the big day :)

Feel free to throw in some percentage picks here as well. Here's mine.

As a bonus - please put a guess in for home many votes fan favorite Jim Gilmore receives :D

Cruz 28% (I'll stick with my pick - though I got a bit of feeling I'm wrong) Actual 28% :bowtie:

Trump 27% Actual 24% - well I got his placement right.

Rubio 18% (good enough but not quite good enough) Actual 23% - I underestimated, so no soup for me.

Carson 9% (secret ballot helps - but not enough to save him - 'nuff said) Bingo actual 9% :bowtie:

Paul 5% Actual 5% :bowtie:

Christie 4% Branstad helps - get him about 2 more % :no: wrongo actually finished 10th :lmao: barely 2% for our embarrassment of a (essentially ex-) governor.

Huckabee 2.5% Actually finished 9th with 2% - sorta right but not really

Bush 1.9% - Finished 6th with 3% - no soup for me

Fiorina 1.7% - Finished 8th with 2%

Santorum 1.5% - Finished 11th 1% - sorta close

Kasich 1.3% - Finished 8th - I undersold him a little.

Gilmore 0.1% :pickle: - I predict 120 votes. Oops clearly a typo as I added a 0 to that prediction :D

-QG
Click to expand...
I think I did pretty good here ;)

-QG

 
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