So with the news that the Chargers are "moving on" from Rivers. What would you like to see happen?
- Bring in a FA (Brady, Brees, Tannehill, Prescott, Winston, Bridgewater, Mariota)
- Trade for someone who might be available (Cam, Fitzpatrick)
- Trade up for Burrows or Tagliavia
- Draft Herbert or Love
- Trade down or draft late for Fromm, Eason, Hurts...
- Stand pat with Tyrod and Stick
- Some other alternative?
I became a Chargers fan when Rivers was traded to the Chargers in 2004. Given:
- The team is moving on from him, and not via a graceful retirement
- I despise the Spanos family
- I think poorly of Telesco and Lynn
...I will be moving my fandom to another team. Perhaps Seattle, which has been my second favorite team due to Russell Wilson (same NC State connection as Rivers), and perhaps wherever Rivers lands. Probably both.
All that said, I haven't moved on yet. I can use process of elimination to whittle down the options:
- IMO moving on from Rivers implies moving on to the team's QBOTF. That is not Brady or Brees. IMO it would be disrespectful to Rivers, one of the 2-3 best players in franchise history, to "move on" from him to sign Brady. I wouldn't put this past Spanos at all, but, fortunately, I expect Brady is too smart to do it. And Brees has clearly stated that he will return to NO or retire.
- I don't think Tannehill or Prescott will make it to the open market, so I am ignoring them.
- IMO Bridgewater is fool's good and will not provide good return on the contract he would require.
- IMO Mariota is done as a starter in the NFL. Look at the contrast between him and Tannehill. He might not even be a quality backup.
- Winston might be of some interest, given he is still young and has shown flashes. But the fact that Arians had him for a year and doesn't want him, which would be the case if he reaches the open market, would carry a lot of weight with me. He also carries a knucklehead factor that Telesco has tended to avoid. And, finally, he will probably be pretty expensive.
- I could see Lynn foolishly wanting to trade for Newton. I certainly wouldn't. He is not a QBOTF, and Tyrod would probably provide similar performance at a much lower price and with less drama.
- Fitzpatrick is not a QBOTF, so he is out.
- It isn't Telesco's style to trade up to #1, given all that would require. So Burrow is out. Besides, CIN might not make that trade, anyway.
- The only way standing pat with Tyrod and Stick makes sense is to tank for Trevor Lawrence in the 2021 draft, and build up other areas in 2020, most notably the OL. That might work if (a) Telesco and Lynn weren't both on the hot seat in 2020, and (b) the team wasn't moving into the new stadium with need to sell PSLs and tickets. Can't see this one as a viable option.
That leaves drafting a QB, which is really the only reason it would have made sense to move on from Rivers. Everyone probably knows the odds associated with drafting QBs, but here is a partial refresher. Let me start by admitting that "successful" is a bit subjective here. That said, in the past 20 drafts:
- There have been 21 QBs drafted in the 2nd round. The only ones who were/are successful so far: Brees, Garoppolo, and Carr (?).
- There have been 26 QBs drafted in the 3rd round. The only ones who were/are successful so far: Wilson, Foles (?), and Brissett (?).
- There have been 28 QBs drafted in the 4th round. The only ones who were/are successful so far: Cousins and Prescott.
- There have been 34 QBs drafted in the 5th round. None were/are successful so far.
- There have been 45 QBs drafted in the 6th round. The only ones who were/are successful so far: Brady, Bulger, and Tyrod (?). Jury is out on Minshew, though I am skeptical he can be a long term successful NFL starter.
- There have been 28 QBs drafted in the 7th round. The only ones who were/are successful so far: Fitzpatrick and Cassell.
That is 13 successful QBs among 182 QBs drafted in the 2nd round or later. Where "successful" includes journeymen like Foles, Tyrod, and Fitzpatrick. The true success stories are Brady, Brees, Wilson, Cousins, and Prescott. Maybe Garoppolo. So 5-6 out of 182 QBs were long term above average or better NFL starters. The odds look a bit better if you consider just rounds 2-4, but still not good -- 4-5 out of 75 drafted QBs.
The success rate of 1st round QBs isn’t great… but it’s a lot better than the later rounds.
So my view is that the Chargers should draft Herbert or Tua, assuming one is available at #6 and further assuming the Chargers grade one or both of them as worthy of that pick. If neither is available (or grades out high enough), this situation looks much worse.
I guess they could draft Love, Fromm, or Hurts in the second, but those guys seem like they carry much longer odds to succeed. They would also just miss on the 5th year option available if they moved up to draft whichever guy at the end of the 1st, like BAL did with Jackson. Though the 5th year option is starting to seem less advantageous, with star players seemingly willing to hold out to avoid it.
If I had to guess what they will do, my guess is they draft Herbert or Tua at #6. And, as we sit here today prior to the combine and all of the examination of those two that will occur between now and the draft, I think that is what they should do. Then let Tyrod start most of the season and take the beating that comes with playing behind the Chargers OL, and hope to improve the OL for 2021.