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Official 4th Overall Pick Thread (1 Viewer)

R

RalphMouth

Footballguy
We are the lucky ones who thought Antonio Brown would fall to us but now must decide who's the 4th best player on offense in the NFL.

Is it Beckham, Jones, McCoy, Gordon, Evans ??

and then what the heck are you doing in the late 2nd at pick #21 ? 

I hate what's there. Lynch or Miller if you need a RB.  Hopkins, Cooks, TY Hilton if you need WR or do you do something wild and get Gronk

or something even crazier and take Aaron Rodgers ???      

 
In a PPR league myself, hard not to pick OBJ from 4th position. Rounds 2 & 3 are pretty wide open though I tend to not think very highly of the RBs around 21 to 30 ADP.

 
One thought could be to take Zeke at #21 if still there. It would stink to see the team with David Johnson or Bell have him as their 1, 2 punch.  I'd seriously consider it

if Zeke gets his suspension lowered to 4 games.

 
Thanks to Zeke, our once desirable 4th pick is analogous to finishing 4th in the Olympics.  In a PPR, is anybody really excited about picking OBJ there? Is he safer than Julio?  Who do we hope to see fall to #21? 

 
RalphMouth said:
One thought could be to take Zeke at #21 if still there. It would stink to see the team with David Johnson or Bell have him as their 1, 2 punch.  I'd seriously consider it

if Zeke gets his suspension lowered to 4 games.
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If his suspension gets lowered to 4 games I think he'll be going early second round. 

If I have 4 I'm going OBJ or Julio.

McCoy if you really hate taking a WR 1st.

 
The General said:
If his suspension gets lowered to 4 games I think he'll be going early second round. 

If I have 4 I'm going OBJ or Julio.

McCoy if you really hate taking a WR 1st.
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I'm leaning OBJ over Jones due to Jones' historical lack of td production...but still considering McCoy as I really hate the RBs

available at #21

 
I'm leaning McCoy in the 1st but the second at #21 is way up in the air....

Rodgers is starting to cross my mind more and more..

 
GO OBJ or Julio .......... then follow up with BPA (Miller/Ajayi/Howard) in 2nd......... early 3rd take Zeke .......... grab Mcfadden in 5 or 6th , yeah you over pay a little but the Zeke/DMac combo all year will produce RB1 numbers.

 
For me it's been between McCoy and Gordon. My thinking is that McCoy is going to be a bigger part of the game plan without Watkins and without Gillislee but the nagging injuries worry me a bit and I think Gordon might have more upside since ya know, he might not be injured all the time. Someone sell me. 

 
oh I've been getting Hilton @ 21 if he's still there (some of my mocks haven't had him) though I've been kinda leaning Miller lately since some of the rumblings from Indy have been troubling (lost their center for a bit and Luck is having some trouble)

 
I was lucky enough to draft prior to Elliott's suspension so I was afforded the luxury of choosing Antonio. However, had he not been there, I would have chosen Julio. 

 
why the love for Miller at #21 ?

I believe that D Forman will eat up 35% of the carries and steal many goalie situations.

If I go McCoy at #4 I'm going best available WR at #21 ... Baldwin, Cooper, Bryant...

 
Not gonna stretch for McCoy at number 4, just don't see the Bills doing much on offense in a dependable manner.  So Julio and OBJ are the only real options.  OBJ has the upside, but Julio has the more dependable QB.

2nd pick for RB is Lamar Miller?  Naah, I'm gonna grab Brady if I can, and then go for serviceable RBs at 3 and 4.  Someone will have already reached for Zeke already, but if not I will think about him because I don't want him slipping to Johnson/Bell owners.

Classic problem of drafting stud WR 1st round - the RB curve has flattened out before it gets back to you due to over demand, so you might as well go with some other player with differentiation in round 2 (e.g., a top QB or even TE depending on your scoring), and then backfill at RB in rounds 3 and 4.  This is why stud RB is so popular -- the WR curve is long and flat after the first few big names, so they can get what they need at WR.

 
Tough call between OBJ and Julio. Maybe deal with owner at pick 5, swap, and pick a piece up.

either guy is a nice starting point.

 
Wu-banger said:
GO OBJ or Julio .......... then follow up with BPA (Miller/Ajayi/Howard) in 2nd......... early 3rd take Zeke .......... grab Mcfadden in 5 or 6th , yeah you over pay a little but the Zeke/DMac combo all year will produce RB1 numbers.
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I have done about 15 drafts since the suspension and Zeke has never went later then 2.11. I do agree with Julio or OBJ. Wait on Miller until the 3rd, he is there most of the time.

Ideally at 4 you should be getting, Julio/OBJ, then Gurley/Ajayi/Dez/Hilton, then follow it up with Miller or reach for Crowell if you went wr/wr and have to have a back.

 
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after johnson/bell/mccoy/howard/gordon/freeman/muarry the miller/crowell/hyde/anderson/ware group seem like the best backs to me.

I'm not high on either Gurley or Ajayi. Ajayi b/c the lack of Tannehill and Ajayi's claim to fame last year was like 4 big games but he was mostly pedestrian all season. I think week 3 of the preseason will be interesting to watch. Like does the Rams new head coach just suddenly fix things in LA? Call me skeptical. 

For Miller: he had 160 standard fantasy points last year and I assume he'll stay pretty consistent. I will gladly take that. I'm not that sold on the idea that Foreman steals a bunch of work from Miller yet. 

Going WR heavy in the first two rounds and then picking up 2 of hyde /anderson /ware (i'll have to check but I think in all my mocks Miller/Crowell were gone by 28) isn't a horrible option either. 

 
I'm shifting now towards WR, WR , RB, RB...

Julio, Cooks followed by the best two RBs available in 3 and 4.

I read an article that mentions there are bigger busts for mid-tier WRs than RBs while stud WRs tend to stay healthier than RBs

 
I was leaning OBJ, but his injury has me shying away.  Still undecided between McCoy and Freeman, but 90% sure I'll take one of those over Julio and hope for Bryant or Baldwin coming back.

 
JuniorNB said:
I was leaning OBJ, but his injury has me shying away.  Still undecided between McCoy and Freeman, but 90% sure I'll take one of those over Julio and hope for Bryant or Baldwin coming back.
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Dez has not been there I'd say 75% of the time on the Mocks I've been doing lately....you should have no issue getting Baldwin.

Originally I've coveted McCoy but the vibes out of Buffalo are not positive. No more deep threat at WR so I expect defenses will stack the line. His age is scary and he hasn't been the healthiest of players. If you do draft him you MUST get Williams as a handcuff in the late rounds (11th or 12th ??)

 
RalphMouth said:
Dez has not been there I'd say 75% of the time on the Mocks I've been doing lately....you should have no issue getting Baldwin.

Originally I've coveted McCoy but the vibes out of Buffalo are not positive. No more deep threat at WR so I expect defenses will stack the line. His age is scary and he hasn't been the healthiest of players. If you do draft him you MUST get Williams as a handcuff in the late rounds (11th or 12th ??)
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Yeah, I've done a few mocks and don't see Dez being there.  It's usually guys like Cooks/Pryor/Hopkins.    That seems to be the dilemma with the 4 pick.   Do we prefer a McCoy-B.Cooks combo or a OBJ/Julio- Crowell/L.Miller combo?

 
I would not take OBJ over JJ with 4th pick. With Marshall in NY. He will take away TD's and targets from OBJ. Plus playing half your games in Atlanta compared to playing half your games in cold, possible bad weather games like OBJ will be makes taking JJ at 4 a lot easier of a choice.,plus having a better qb helps Jones. Ryan and JJ have also been working on getting him the ball more in the end zone this year too....plus you never know if OBJ ankle issue lingers. Safer pick is JJ at 4. I'm taking another stud WR at pick 21. We start 3 WR's and have a flex,so loading up on stud WR's is more important in my ppr league. 

 
yep ...I'm pretty much on board with Julio ...90% at this moment .... I'd like to see him in limited action looking healthy come this weekend..

at 21 I'm thinking a Cooks is better than Cooper, Baldwin or Hopkins as WRs go...

I really don't like the RBs at this spot  ... Lynch, Fournette , Miller ....   IF I did take a RB it would be Dalvin Cook or Mccaffrey

 
On the JJ train  :drive: ... but was feeling a lot better with EE and OBJ in the mix. 

btw - .5 PPR

 
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RalphMouth said:
We are the lucky ones who thought Antonio Brown would fall to us but now must decide who's the 4th best player on offense in the NFL.

Is it Beckham, Jones, McCoy, Gordon, Evans ??

and then what the heck are you doing in the late 2nd at pick #21 ? 

I hate what's there. Lynch or Miller if you need a RB.  Hopkins, Cooks, TY Hilton if you need WR or do you do something wild and get Gronk

or something even crazier and take Aaron Rodgers ???      
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I'm often puzzled at these premise-based questions. Not just "why isn't this on the advice board" (putting "official" in the topic title doesn't make it not a "help" topic), but more specifically why would Brown fall to you at 4 as you assert as your premise? If I'm at 3 and DJ/Bell are gone, Brown is my easy pick at 1.03 - IMO the clear cut WR1, Looking at ADP that seems to be consistent with most in the FFB world for PPR, 1/2 PPR and non-PPR. 

With a high ankle sprain I've bumped ODB down quite a bit, but I was already lower on him than many already for my own reasons, so the injury just makes it easier for me to pass & grab Julio. So if you're going WR, Julio is the next best, and maybe Evans or Green next (I see that as a coin flip, but many prefer Evans). If RB, McCoy seems like an obvious pick at 4, but if he goes at 3, and you're bent on a RB, Gordon is next up. That's pretty straightforward. 

As for the later rounds, discussing who you should pick there is a bit silly, since no one knows who's going to be there. All you know is ADP, and it's up to you to rank these players in the order you would take them if they're there. If only one makes it there, boom - there's your pick. If several make it there, that's what your pre-draft rankings are for. 

Don't take ARod in the 2nd round. Let someone else reach for a QB. Or hey, it's your draft - take ODB 1.04 & Zeke 2.09 and go up to the 1st 6 games without both, then 1 of your top two players. I hear that's a key to success in some leagues. ;)  (note: heavy sarcasm, not real advice in that last sentence) 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
I'm often puzzled at these premise-based questions. Not just "why isn't this on the advice board" (putting "official" in the topic title doesn't make it not a "help" topic), but more specifically why would Brown fall to you at 4 as you assert as your premise? If I'm at 3 and DJ/Bell are gone, Brown is my easy pick at 1.03 - IMO the clear cut WR1, Looking at ADP that seems to be consistent with most in the FFB world for PPR, 1/2 PPR and non-PPR. 

With a high ankle sprain I've bumped ODB down quite a bit, but I was already lower on him than many already for my own reasons, so the injury just makes it easier for me to pass & grab Julio. So if you're going WR, Julio is the next best, and maybe Evans or Green next (I see that as a coin flip, but many prefer Evans). If RB, McCoy seems like an obvious pick at 4, but if he goes at 3, and you're bent on a RB, Gordon is next up. That's pretty straightforward. 

As for the later rounds, discussing who you should pick there is a bit silly, since no one knows who's going to be there. All you know is ADP, and it's up to you to rank these players in the order you would take them if they're there. If only one makes it there, boom - there's your pick. If several make it there, that's what your pre-draft rankings are for. 

Don't take ARod in the 2nd round. Let someone else reach for a QB. Or hey, it's your draft - take ODB 1.04 & Zeke 2.09 and go up to the 1st 6 games without both, then 1 of your top two players. I hear that's a key to success in some leagues. ;)  (note: heavy sarcasm, not real advice in that last sentence) 
Click to expand...
I think the initial premise was that Elliot would have been drafted 3rd (pre suspension) and therefore AB would have been available for the 4th Pick. 

Now it's a bit murkier. 

 
RalphMouth said:
I'm shifting now towards WR, WR , RB, RB...

Julio, Cooks followed by the best two RBs available in 3 and 4.

I read an article that mentions there are bigger busts for mid-tier WRs than RBs while stud WRs tend to stay healthier than RBs
Click to expand...
I've always believed that in general, WRs are more likely to bust than RBs - simply due to the greater potential damage that a QB injury would have on a receiver.

 
4th&inches said:
I think the initial premise was that Elliot would have been drafted 3rd (pre suspension) and therefore AB would have been available for the 4th Pick. 

Now it's a bit murkier. 
Click to expand...
Ah. That makes much more sense. I thought it was because of the OBD injury. Thanks for clarifying. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Ah. That makes much more sense. I thought it was because of the OBD injury. Thanks for clarifying. 
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yep ...my original post was made right after the Zeeke suspension..  as before that I figured Brown was most likely mine (our league covets RBs)

I can pretty much guess what will be there at #21 ....the first two picks in a draft tend to shape where you go the rest of the way -

 
RalphMouth said:
yep ...my original post was made right after the Zeeke suspension..  as before that I figured Brown was most likely mine (our league covets RBs)

I can pretty much guess what will be there at #21 ....the first two picks in a draft tend to shape where you go the rest of the way -
Click to expand...
My leagues are all over the place. 1st round somewhat predictable, give or take. 2nd is a jumbled mess. 

 
Wu-banger said:
GO OBJ or Julio .......... then follow up with BPA (Miller/Ajayi/Howard) in 2nd......... early 3rd take Zeke .......... grab Mcfadden in 5 or 6th , yeah you over pay a little but the Zeke/DMac combo all year will produce RB1 numbers.
Click to expand...
Yikes.  Way too late for zeke (won't be there at 3.4), and WAY too early taking mcfadden in the 5th too.  If you wanna do that combo you'd do 2.9 and 7.3.

 
JuniorNB said:
Yeah, I've done a few mocks and don't see Dez being there.  It's usually guys like Cooks/Pryor/Hopkins.    That seems to be the dilemma with the 4 pick.   Do we prefer a McCoy-B.Cooks combo or a OBJ/Julio- Crowell/L.Miller combo?
Click to expand...
Yep. And it looks like Freeman has actually crept slightly in front of Shady (as it seems folks are increasingly not feeling good about the Bills) on MFL. I don't think its completely unrealistic to get JJ at 1.04 and then Cooks at 2.09 and then Crow or D Cook at 3.04. I'd take that. Or, depending on how things are shaking out, take Crow/Cook at 2.09 and hope maybe Baldwin makes it to 3.04.

 
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I realize this isn't going to be typical, but I had one of my more casual drafts last night.  I had the 4 spot in a 12 team, 6PT passing TD, PPR league with extra bonuses for long touchdowns and 300 or 400+ yds passing.  I say that because QB's tend to weigh a little more heavily in this league than most typical scoring systems.  QBs can score over 50 pts a week in this system with a strong week.  I don't particularly care for the scoring system, but it is what it is in this neighborhood league.

In any case, the draft last night went 1.01 Bell, 1.02 J. Jones, 1.03 Brady.  I can't justify that, but it left me staring at D. Johnson at 1.04, who obviously I grabbed.  Coming back around for my second pick, I wanted to grab the best available player, but was leaning toward WR.  I would have liked M. Thomas there but he went a pick or two before me, as did Bryant.  So, I grabbed B. Cooks.  Not ideal in my eyes, but has potential.  Then, was able to grab A. Rodgers at 3.04 which was a steal in this scoring system and D. Cook in round 4.

Don't know that this is helpful to anyone because there were some real boneheaded picks in this league, but I'm feeling pretty comfortable starting my team at the 4 spot with Johnson and Cook at RB and B. Cooks and Rodgers, especially in this scoring system.

 
The problem I see with picks 4-6 this year is if you take a WR like Julio, there are stud WR falling to the second round because of the run on running backs. It kinda sucks when you take Julio at #4 and team #12 takes Evans and Jordy Nelson. 

 
ponchsox said:
The problem I see with picks 4-6 this year is if you take a WR like Julio, there are stud WR falling to the second round because of the run on running backs. It kinda sucks when you take Julio at #4 and team #12 takes Evans and Jordy Nelson. 
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That shouldn't even be possible in a decent PPR league.  In our $600 slow draft 1/2/3/1 + 1 flex ... PPR ... Evans went 1.06 and Jordy went 1.08.

Jordy should never be falling to the mid 2nd regardless of format. So don't get angry about dumb drafting leagues.

 
Donny Loved Bowling said:
I've always believed that in general, WRs are more likely to bust than RBs - simply due to the greater potential damage that a QB injury would have on a receiver.
Click to expand...
This is not true. There are articles and analysis all over the place showing how WRs hold their value better - especially those attached to better QBs. Injury rates are less and it's more difficult to "lose" your job to a backup.

 
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