*Official* 9th pick thread (1 Viewer)

[gump]

I'm in a 10-team, non-ppr, redraft league. A month out from the draft, so time to start drilling down some plans. When I first realized I had the 9th of 10 picks, I was happy...considering the likenesses of all the picks at the end of the 1st round. But, now I'm seeing that the same likenesses may be there between all the early-to-mid-to-late 2nd rounders...so not quite sure what I think about this slot yet.

The saying goes that you can't win it with the early picks, but you can lose it. After experimenting with a bunch of mocks, I've realized that IMO this is a slot that you can definitely lose it from. Two things need to be understood:

1) Position runs - obviously with that many picks between the 2-3, 4-5, etc...you can get hurt.

2) Where the value lies - this goes for all picks I know, but mistakes can be magnified from the 9th slot...so reaching can also hurt. For example, in a few mocks I've nabbed Brees in the 2nd...which has not worked out well. The value at QB seems to be pretty strong in the 5th and 6th rounds...with guys like Romo, Warner, Rivers, and McNabb there. My teams have worked out much better waiting for the value at QB.

So considering these two key things, what philosophy are you leaning towards? Looking at ADP (which we know will change), we'll have the following options:

1.09 - Fitz, AJ, Deangelo, Slaton, maybe LT.

2.02 - CJ, Moss, Deangelo, Slaton, Portis

3.09 - RBrown, Grant, Thomas, Bowe, Boldin, TO

4.02 - same as above

5.09 - Rivers, McNabb, Romo, RBush, Moreno, TJones, LJ, Desean, Roy, VJackson

6.02 - same

Is it a must to go WR-RB or RB-WR in the first two, to miss a potential run?

Or is there value in the 3rd or 4th that would make you lean towards a RB-RB or WR-WR start?

My best mock have come from a RB-WR start, then another 2 WR....then following up with someone like Moreno, Bush, McFadden, or TJones...then getting whatever QB falls from Rivers, McNabb, or Romo.

Thoughts?

 

[gump]

One thing I've noticed is the value at the end of Round 3 and early Round 4 seems to be at WR, or even QB. The mocks where I've gone WR-WR-RB-RB have not turned out as well as the ones I've gone WR-WR-WR-QB on. When you get to that 3.09 point...seems to be a better option to wait until the 5.09/6.02 turn to get your RBs.

 

[ajopiela]

I think two Wr is absolutly the way to go here

Fitz, AJ, Moss- Pick two of the three

The only exception imo would be if Deangelo was there at 1:9 or possibly Slaton

 

[drew726]

I'd probably go Deangelo/Slaton, I dont think they're both going to be there at 2.02 and then get AJ, Fitz, CJ in that order. I just don't see Warner staying healthy the whole year.

 

[Grahamburn]

I think two Wr is absolutly the way to go here

Fitz, AJ, Moss- Pick two of the three

The only exception imo would be if Deangelo was there at 1:9 or possibly Slaton

I don't understand this line of thinking at all.I have the 9th pick in a .5 PPR, 12 team, 3rd Round Reversal.

I'm having a hard time finding the value drafting WRs at both these picks. These wideouts will likely not duplicate the total yardage provided by the backs you can have with your first two picks.

For example, Fitzgerald had 1431 and 12 TDs while Andre Johnson had 1575 and 8 TDs. Those are huge seasons for a WR. These numbers will not be easy to replicate. There are a TON of factors that can affect the production for a WR. Kurt Warner/Matt Schaub could easily get hurt and kill the value of these two players. I could go on and on.

Now, look at two players that will most likely be available when you pick whether you're in a 10 team or a 12 team league. Frank Gore and Clinton Portis, and many would consider them among the weaker backs available at these spots. Gore had 1409 and 8 TDs in what many would consider a down year. Portis had 1705 and 9 TDs.

WRs: 3006 yards, 20 TDs

RBs: 3114 yards, 17 TDs

That's a difference of 7.2 fantasy points over the course of the season in favor of two WRs that had monstrous years vs. two RBs who possibly had down years. The dropoff is much more steep in the RB pool than it is in the WR pool. You're taking a mighty big risk starting a draft WR/WR and then relying on the backs that can be had at the 3.9, 4.4, and 5.9 picks.

Simply look at the concensus at WR before the beginning of last season. A Randy Moss, TO start looked pretty good, right? I remember a lot of people employing that strategy and falling on their faces.

My strategy with the 9th pick is to hopefully have LT fall to me and then draft Calvin Johnson in the second round. If that doesn't work out I'll likely start my draft with Gore/Portis, and be very happy about it.

 

[gump]

In my 10-teamer, I've suddenly fallen in love with this draft spot.

I've targeted 9 guys that I want at least 1 of, and 12 guys that I want 2 of. IOW, the perfect fit for the 9th pick.

The 12 consists of 8 RB and 4 WR. So my draft strategy for the first two rounds is simple...If all 4 WR are gone thru 8, simply pick my favorite RB. If 3 WR are gone by 8, then pick the 4th WR at 9....and wait for one of the RB to fall to 12. If only 0 or 1 WR are gone thru 8, pick one of the 4-5 RB I have left and then WR at 12.

The only thing that gets me now is injury.

Then at 3.09...target RB. One of RBrown, Ryan Grant, Kevin Smith, and Pierre Thomas are always there...and I've even seen Clinton Portis falling there occassionally at FFC. Get a solid RB, or hope to see a major fall.

Then at 4.02...target WR or QB. Because I'm seeing a couple of WR I like fall to the 5th and 6th...I have no problem going Rodgers here, or of course Manning if he falls. But...no problem taking a guy like Bowe, Colston, or TO.

Then at 5.09 and 6.02...either WR like Bryant, Jackson, or Edwards...or RB like TJones, McFadden, Benson. And take McNabb or Romo if I didn't take QB in the 4th.

Of course, this is all based on FFC and other current ADP...so I'll need to pay attention to movement over the next few weeks.

 

[dansav]

I think there is some much value after the 3rd round on RBs you can load up on 2 elite WRs in the first 3 rounds. I plan on going WR RB WR from the ninth slot and waiting on QB until the 6th or later. My league starts 1QB 2 RB 3 WR 1 TE 1K 1 DEF. 4pts for Passing TD. 6pts for rush or rec TD .5 PPR.

heres how the draft started

Andre Johnson

L. Tomlinson

M. Colston

W. Welker

L. Johnson

D. Ward

T. Romo

F. Jones

D. Sproles

D. Driver

E. Manning

H. Miller

 

[Grahamburn]

I think there is some much value after the 3rd round on RBs you can load up on 2 elite WRs in the first 3 rounds. I plan on going WR RB WR from the ninth slot and waiting on QB until the 6th or later. My league starts 1QB 2 RB 3 WR 1 TE 1K 1 DEF. 4pts for Passing TD. 6pts for rush or rec TD .5 PPR. heres how the draft startedAndre Johnson L. TomlinsonM. ColstonW. WelkerL. JohnsonD. WardT. RomoF. JonesD. SprolesD. DriverE. ManningH. Miller

I like this.I'm starting to become partial to Calvin though in the first. He just seems like he has that moster season in him, and he probably won't make it back to me at the 2.4. Then take the RB that falls in the second. Value from there. I'm in a third round reversal so my third rounder is the 3.4. There seems to be quite a bit of talent left at that spot.I love the idea of starting with two 3-down backs at 1.9 and 2.4 (Gore/Portis), but my WR corps will lack some punch unless I can hit on some late picks. It seems like it may be easier to hit on late RBs.Of the 4 backs above drafted late you can expect at least one to break out and possibly two.

 

[dansav]

I think there is some much value after the 3rd round on RBs you can load up on 2 elite WRs in the first 3 rounds. I plan on going WR RB WR from the ninth slot and waiting on QB until the 6th or later. My league starts 1QB 2 RB 3 WR 1 TE 1K 1 DEF. 4pts for Passing TD. 6pts for rush or rec TD .5 PPR. heres how the draft startedAndre Johnson L. TomlinsonM. ColstonW. WelkerL. JohnsonD. WardT. RomoF. JonesD. SprolesD. DriverE. ManningH. Miller

I like this.I'm starting to become partial to Calvin though in the first. He just seems like he has that moster season in him, and he probably won't make it back to me at the 2.4. Then take the RB that falls in the second. Value from there. I'm in a third round reversal so my third rounder is the 3.4. There seems to be quite a bit of talent left at that spot.I love the idea of starting with two 3-down backs at 1.9 and 2.4 (Gore/Portis), but my WR corps will lack some punch unless I can hit on some late picks. It seems like it may be easier to hit on late RBs.Of the 4 backs above drafted late you can expect at least one to break out and possibly two.

I would normally grab my 2nd RB in the 4th but with Welker still on the board and in a ppr leage I figured a #3wr on your team that will have 100 catches isn't a bad thing.

 

[gump]

I think there is some much value after the 3rd round on RBs you can load up on 2 elite WRs in the first 3 rounds.

I like this idea also...but will jump at a RB like RBrown if he falls there. That's the good thing about starting RB-WR...feels like you have less pressure to go to a certain position next.

 

[dansav]

I think there is some much value after the 3rd round on RBs you can load up on 2 elite WRs in the first 3 rounds.

I like this idea also...but will jump at a RB like RBrown if he falls there. That's the good thing about starting RB-WR...feels like you have less pressure to go to a certain position next.

yeah in my draft scernio a couple of posts up I think Brown was on the board when i grabbed welker, I will double check. So you could go RB WR WR RB and be fine too

 

[rjv]

Bump

 

[Grahamburn]

Bump

No thoughts of your own?

 

[rjv]

Bump

No thoughts of your own?

Well Im so sorry Last 3 years in both my leagues, I followed the simple formula WR,WR,RB,RB IF you are picking 7-10. And in both leagues I made it to the super bowl. To bad I didn't win but I made it.I recommended this strategy to several ppl and backed it up with statistics. Now I am by no means a know it all guy but if something I toyed around with and it works, I am more than happy to share my success with all of you.If you take a running back with a late-first-rounder, you'll already be drawing from the non-elite pool at the position, and that will leave you chasing points. From 2002-08, the top-ranked running back averaged 347 compared to 225 points for the No. 8 back and 205 for the No. 10 back. You don't really help your cause by doubling down on a running back in the second round, either. For example, if every owner goes RB-RB with the first two picks, the top spot would hold an advantage of 107 points over the 10th spot. Good luck making that up, especially when you consider the owner selecting first overall will also lock in the top-ranked wide receiver in the third round in this scenario.The 1st 4 or 5 RBs off the board are similar aand as I like to call them "high end" RBs. Once they are gone, the next 15 are a crap shoot and will put up similar points for you week in and week out. Approx 20-25 points on avg. This is a strategy in a 10 team league, if I forgot to mention.Think of it this way, if you are picking at 9,which I am doing again this year, by picking wr 1st you will grab AJ, Jennings, Moss or a slight chance Fitz. Then grabbing another top 4 wr for your 2nd pic will benefit you greatly.Ppl grabbing RBs at the 8-10 spot, won't benefit as much as the WRs will get you. After the 1st 4 or even 5 RBs off the board there is a considerable drop off from points per game they get you. RBs taken in the 3rd round and 4th consist of Bush, P.Thomas, McFadden, Grant, Stewart, Ronnie Brown and many more that I would glady have on my roster.

 

[gump]

I've tried it in mocks...but I can't get behind a WR-WR start. In my rankings, there's too much of a difference between a early second-rounder like Slaton and a late third-rounder like Grant. More of a difference than early second-round WR like AJ vs a late third-rounder like Bowe.

 

[gump]

OK...I've been tested an interesting strategy...waiting for my 3rd WR until at least round 7, then targeting my 4th and 5th WR at the 9th/10th turn.

What I've noticed is that there are some good WR falling to the 7th or later, then another solid round in the late 9th. That gives me the opp to get RB depth and a starting QB in the first 6 rounds. Here's how my last two mocks have essentially gone:

1.9 - Slaton

2.2 - CJ

3.9 - RBrown

4.2 - TO

5.9 - RBush

6.2 - McNabb

7.9 - SMoss

8.2 - RRice

9.9 - Cotchery

10.2 - Harvin

11.9 - Garrard

12.2 - McGahee

What do you think about that idea?

 

[sinatravolta]

OK...I've been tested an interesting strategy...waiting for my 3rd WR until at least round 7, then targeting my 4th and 5th WR at the 9th/10th turn.

What I've noticed is that there are some good WR falling to the 7th or later, then another solid round in the late 9th. That gives me the opp to get RB depth and a starting QB in the first 6 rounds. Here's how my last two mocks have essentially gone:

1.9 - Slaton

2.2 - CJ

3.9 - RBrown

4.2 - TO

5.9 - RBush

6.2 - McNabb

7.9 - SMoss

8.2 - RRice

9.9 - Cotchery

10.2 - Harvin

11.9 - Garrard

12.2 - McGahee

What do you think about that idea?

I'm assuming CJ is Calvin not Chris? If so - then this is obviously a great draft. I take it this is a 10-teamer? The other key to this working so well is that McNabb fell to the 6th round.

 

[gump]

OK...I've been tested an interesting strategy...waiting for my 3rd WR until at least round 7, then targeting my 4th and 5th WR at the 9th/10th turn.

What I've noticed is that there are some good WR falling to the 7th or later, then another solid round in the late 9th. That gives me the opp to get RB depth and a starting QB in the first 6 rounds. Here's how my last two mocks have essentially gone:

1.9 - Slaton

2.2 - CJ

3.9 - RBrown

4.2 - TO

5.9 - RBush

6.2 - McNabb

7.9 - SMoss

8.2 - RRice

9.9 - Cotchery

10.2 - Harvin

11.9 - Garrard

12.2 - McGahee

What do you think about that idea?

I'm assuming CJ is Calvin not Chris? If so - then this is obviously a great draft. I take it this is a 10-teamer? The other key to this working so well is that McNabb fell to the 6th round.

Yes...Calvin. It is also a 10-teamer. Also start 3WR in my league...which makes this proposition a little riskier.Good point about McNabb. If he isn't there...then I'd likely go RB again. TJones/LJ/Lynch were all there. Then I'd really be loaded at RB, still good at WR, and could target a QB in Round 8....with Shaub/Palmer/Cassel all still there.

 

[ATC1]

OK...I've been tested an interesting strategy...waiting for my 3rd WR until at least round 7, then targeting my 4th and 5th WR at the 9th/10th turn.

What I've noticed is that there are some good WR falling to the 7th or later, then another solid round in the late 9th. That gives me the opp to get RB depth and a starting QB in the first 6 rounds. Here's how my last two mocks have essentially gone:

1.9 - Slaton

2.2 - CJ

3.9 - RBrown

4.2 - TO

5.9 - RBush

6.2 - McNabb

7.9 - SMoss

8.2 - RRice

9.9 - Cotchery

10.2 - Harvin

11.9 - Garrard

12.2 - McGahee

What do you think about that idea?

I'm assuming CJ is Calvin not Chris? If so - then this is obviously a great draft. I take it this is a 10-teamer? The other key to this working so well is that McNabb fell to the 6th round.

Yes...Calvin. It is also a 10-teamer. Also start 3WR in my league...which makes this proposition a little riskier.Good point about McNabb. If he isn't there...then I'd likely go RB again. TJones/LJ/Lynch were all there. Then I'd really be loaded at RB, still good at WR, and could target a QB in Round 8....with Shaub/Palmer/Cassel all still there.

What WRs were there at 6.02? I'm thinking of a grabbing two of Fitz/CJ/AJ and then R. Brown, R. Bush, TO, M. Lynch with the next four picks.

 

[Dragon1952]

I think two Wr is absolutly the way to go here

Fitz, AJ, Moss- Pick two of the three

The only exception imo would be if Deangelo was there at 1:9 or possibly Slaton

I don't understand this line of thinking at all.I have the 9th pick in a .5 PPR, 12 team, 3rd Round Reversal.

I'm having a hard time finding the value drafting WRs at both these picks. These wideouts will likely not duplicate the total yardage provided by the backs you can have with your first two picks.

For example, Fitzgerald had 1431 and 12 TDs while Andre Johnson had 1575 and 8 TDs. Those are huge seasons for a WR. These numbers will not be easy to replicate. There are a TON of factors that can affect the production for a WR. Kurt Warner/Matt Schaub could easily get hurt and kill the value of these two players. I could go on and on.

Now, look at two players that will most likely be available when you pick whether you're in a 10 team or a 12 team league. Frank Gore and Clinton Portis, and many would consider them among the weaker backs available at these spots. Gore had 1409 and 8 TDs in what many would consider a down year. Portis had 1705 and 9 TDs.

WRs: 3006 yards, 20 TDs

RBs: 3114 yards, 17 TDs

That's a difference of 7.2 fantasy points over the course of the season in favor of two WRs that had monstrous years vs. two RBs who possibly had down years. The dropoff is much more steep in the RB pool than it is in the WR pool. You're taking a mighty big risk starting a draft WR/WR and then relying on the backs that can be had at the 3.9, 4.4, and 5.9 picks.

Simply look at the concensus at WR before the beginning of last season. A Randy Moss, TO start looked pretty good, right? I remember a lot of people employing that strategy and falling on their faces.

My strategy with the 9th pick is to hopefully have LT fall to me and then draft Calvin Johnson in the second round. If that doesn't work out I'll likely start my draft with Gore/Portis, and be very happy about it.

I've also got the 9th pick out of 10 and I'm thinking WR,WR also. I've had some great mock drafts using that strategy. Your 7.2 pts over the course of the season is minuscule. Even if it were 20, that's only 1.25 pts per week. And as for more risk taking a WR, look at the first 3 rounds of our draft last year. The RB's taken were LT, ADP, S. Jackson, Barber, Westbrook, Addai, Jacobs, Gore, Portis, Jamaal Lewis, Maroney, Lynch, Grant, Larry Johnson, FWP, Earnest Graham and McGahee. How many of those yielded stellar results? Turner, taken in the 4th, Thomas Jones, taken in the 6th, Lendale White, taken in the 8th, Ronnie Brown, Jonathan Stewart and Matt Forte, taken in the 10th and Deangelo Williams, taken in the 11th helped their fantasy teams more as a group. If I can get any 2 of Fitz, Moss, AJ, CJ, Wayne and still get guys like Pierre Thomas, Ronnie Brown, Thomas Jones, Darren McFadden, Addai, FWP, Lendale White, Kevin Smith, Jonathan Stewart, Ray Rice, Derrick Ward, etc later, that's not a bad deal. With only 10 teams drafting, there's lots of value at RB later.

 

[gump]

OK...I've been tested an interesting strategy...waiting for my 3rd WR until at least round 7, then targeting my 4th and 5th WR at the 9th/10th turn.

What I've noticed is that there are some good WR falling to the 7th or later, then another solid round in the late 9th. That gives me the opp to get RB depth and a starting QB in the first 6 rounds. Here's how my last two mocks have essentially gone:

1.9 - Slaton

2.2 - CJ

3.9 - RBrown

4.2 - TO

5.9 - RBush

6.2 - McNabb

7.9 - SMoss

8.2 - RRice

9.9 - Cotchery

10.2 - Harvin

11.9 - Garrard

12.2 - McGahee

What do you think about that idea?

I'm assuming CJ is Calvin not Chris? If so - then this is obviously a great draft. I take it this is a 10-teamer? The other key to this working so well is that McNabb fell to the 6th round.

Yes...Calvin. It is also a 10-teamer. Also start 3WR in my league...which makes this proposition a little riskier.Good point about McNabb. If he isn't there...then I'd likely go RB again. TJones/LJ/Lynch were all there. Then I'd really be loaded at RB, still good at WR, and could target a QB in Round 8....with Shaub/Palmer/Cassel all still there.

What WRs were there at 6.02? I'm thinking of a grabbing two of Fitz/CJ/AJ and then R. Brown, R. Bush, TO, M. Lynch with the next four picks.

In my last draft....TJones, LJ, Lynch, Ward were all there.Prior draft...TJones, LJ, Lynch, Ward...and even Reggie Bush...were all there.

Plenty of RB options.

 

[gump]

I tried again starting WR-WR...then waiting for my other WR until later:

1.09 - Moss

2.02 - CJ

3.09 - RBrown

4.02 - KSmith

5.09 - TJones

6.02 - McNabb

7.09 - SMoss

8.02 - Rice

9.09 - Cotchery

10.02 - Harvin

11.09 - Garrard

12.02 - McGahee

So between that lineup, and the last one I listed....which is better? Essentially replace Slaton at RB with KSmith, and TO at WR with Moss.

 

[rjv]

I tried again starting WR-WR...then waiting for my other WR until later:1.09 - Moss2.02 - CJ3.09 - RBrown4.02 - KSmith5.09 - TJones6.02 - McNabb7.09 - SMoss8.02 - Rice9.09 - Cotchery10.02 - Harvin11.09 - Garrard12.02 - McGaheeSo between that lineup, and the last one I listed....which is better? Essentially replace Slaton at RB with KSmith, and TO at WR with Moss.

This one.

 

[gump]

I'm warming to it. The next question then is....does it have to be 2 of your top tier WR?

I have the 'Big 4' in a tier above Smith/Jennings/Wayne. Don't think I'd feel comfortable going with any of those second tier WR at 2.02.

 

[gump]

Another question regarding the WR-WR idea...Couldn't you miss some value or get hurt by a position run more?

What if Roddy White falls to 3.09? Can you really go WR-WR-WR?

What if a huge RB runs happens in the 3rd and 4th, and the backs you are targeting just aren't there?

 

[smapdi]

I had the 9th pick in a 12 teamer last night:

1.9 - Chris Johnson

2.4 - Larry Fitz

3.9 - Roddy White

4.4 - M. Colston

5.9 - M. Lynch

6.4 - Cutler

It's a PPR, 6 point all TD league

I figured Chris Johnson was the best RB on the board and it was my only chance to get a legit RB1. I would have considered Brees here but he got taken 2 picks ahead of me.

I couldn't pass on Fitz giving me a stud WR1 at my 2nd pick.

Roddy White fell into my lap so I had to take him there. I wasn't about to reach on a RB and pass on him. The same deal with Colston, he was too good to pass on. It is a start 2 WR and 1 flex league so I can run all 3 of my WR's each week.

Lynch should really give me some value as my 2nd RB. I picked up Fred Jackson later to give myself a backup plan for the first 3 weeks of Lynch's suspension

 

[shredhead]

Another question regarding the WR-WR idea...Couldn't you miss some value or get hurt by a position run more?What if Roddy White falls to 3.09? Can you really go WR-WR-WR?What if a huge RB runs happens in the 3rd and 4th, and the backs you are targeting just aren't there?

That's the gamble you take going WR/WR. I think I will go RB/WR or WR/RB, this gives you a lot more flexibility in rounds 3/4. My leagues have too many runningback whores, if I go WR/WR, I'll be looking at Jamal Lewis as my #1 RB, OK exageration, but I just can't take the risk of not having at least 1 RB in the first 2 rounds.

 

[Jayrok]

I had the 9th pick in a 12 teamer last night:1.9 - Chris Johnson 2.4 - Larry Fitz3.9 - Roddy White4.4 - M. Colston5.9 - M. Lynch6.4 - CutlerIt's a PPR, 6 point all TD leagueI figured Chris Johnson was the best RB on the board and it was my only chance to get a legit RB1. I would have considered Brees here but he got taken 2 picks ahead of me. I couldn't pass on Fitz giving me a stud WR1 at my 2nd pick.Roddy White fell into my lap so I had to take him there. I wasn't about to reach on a RB and pass on him. The same deal with Colston, he was too good to pass on. It is a start 2 WR and 1 flex league so I can run all 3 of my WR's each week. Lynch should really give me some value as my 2nd RB. I picked up Fred Jackson later to give myself a backup plan for the first 3 weeks of Lynch's suspension

It just isn't realistic that Fitz would be available at 2.4 in a 12 teamer. In a 12 teamer he is going in the first round in every draft I've seen.

 

[ATC1]

Another question regarding the WR-WR idea...Couldn't you miss some value or get hurt by a position run more?What if Roddy White falls to 3.09? Can you really go WR-WR-WR?What if a huge RB runs happens in the 3rd and 4th, and the backs you are targeting just aren't there?

I only go WR/WR if you start 3 and it's PPR. One would have to be a RB if you only start 2 WRs. Then, I would not mind WR/WR/WR if the value is there. The 4th would have to be Brown (if there) Bush, P. Thomas, or R. Grant which is better than the WRs there IMO. Then in the 5th, Lynch (If there) T. Jones, LJ. In the 6th if one of those mentioned in the 5th is there, I'm taking them over McNabb.1.09: AJ/CJ2.02: Moss3.09: White/Boldin/Colston/Smith4.02: Bush/P. Thomas/K. Smith5.09: Lynch/T. Jones6.02: LJ7.09: Schaub/Palmer

 

[sinatravolta]

Another question regarding the WR-WR idea...Couldn't you miss some value or get hurt by a position run more?What if Roddy White falls to 3.09? Can you really go WR-WR-WR?What if a huge RB runs happens in the 3rd and 4th, and the backs you are targeting just aren't there?

I think it seems like a gamble because most people are accustomed to taking RBs early because there was more of a drop-off than there is now. But if your league is start 2 RBs and 3 WRs - then think about it:Taking RB/WR leaves you needing 2 WRs and 1 RB. Taking WR/WR leaves you needing 2 RBs and 1 WR. Neither one is riskier than the other. Actually - the risky move is taking 2 RBs, and leaving yourself needing 3 WRs. Now if you start 2 RBs and 2 WRs, obviously it's a different story, and it's a slightly different story if you start 2 RBs, 3 WRs and 1 flex - but not much different really. So I think it comes down to who do you think is closer to a sure-thing? You may be picking between a Gore/Slaton/Chris Johnson or an Andre Johnson/Moss. It's hard to imagine the WRs not being among the top 10 but it's not too hard to imagine those RBs not making that cut. The depth is there now at RB that there didn't used to be - so getting top tier WRs is a good way to go with a late pick.Even if you go with Roddy White in the 3rd, it's no "riskier" than starting RB/WR/RB and then you still need 2 WRs.

 

[gump]

Another question regarding the WR-WR idea...Couldn't you miss some value or get hurt by a position run more?What if Roddy White falls to 3.09? Can you really go WR-WR-WR?What if a huge RB runs happens in the 3rd and 4th, and the backs you are targeting just aren't there?

I think it seems like a gamble because most people are accustomed to taking RBs early because there was more of a drop-off than there is now. But if your league is start 2 RBs and 3 WRs - then think about it:Taking RB/WR leaves you needing 2 WRs and 1 RB. Taking WR/WR leaves you needing 2 RBs and 1 WR. Neither one is riskier than the other. Actually - the risky move is taking 2 RBs, and leaving yourself needing 3 WRs. Now if you start 2 RBs and 2 WRs, obviously it's a different story, and it's a slightly different story if you start 2 RBs, 3 WRs and 1 flex - but not much different really. So I think it comes down to who do you think is closer to a sure-thing? You may be picking between a Gore/Slaton/Chris Johnson or an Andre Johnson/Moss. It's hard to imagine the WRs not being among the top 10 but it's not too hard to imagine those RBs not making that cut. The depth is there now at RB that there didn't used to be - so getting top tier WRs is a good way to go with a late pick.Even if you go with Roddy White in the 3rd, it's no "riskier" than starting RB/WR/RB and then you still need 2 WRs.

I agree to a point. I did another mock this morning...and the RB run I asked about happened. Grant/Thomas/RBrown/KSmith were all gone by my 3.09 pick. I ended up having to reach for either McFadden or Moreno (according to my rankings). The difference between Gore/Slaton/CJ and McFadden for my RB1 is huge.

 

[smapdi]

I had the 9th pick in a 12 teamer last night:1.9 - Chris Johnson 2.4 - Larry Fitz3.9 - Roddy White4.4 - M. Colston5.9 - M. Lynch6.4 - CutlerIt's a PPR, 6 point all TD leagueI figured Chris Johnson was the best RB on the board and it was my only chance to get a legit RB1. I would have considered Brees here but he got taken 2 picks ahead of me. I couldn't pass on Fitz giving me a stud WR1 at my 2nd pick.Roddy White fell into my lap so I had to take him there. I wasn't about to reach on a RB and pass on him. The same deal with Colston, he was too good to pass on. It is a start 2 WR and 1 flex league so I can run all 3 of my WR's each week. Lynch should really give me some value as my 2nd RB. I picked up Fred Jackson later to give myself a backup plan for the first 3 weeks of Lynch's suspension

It just isn't realistic that Fitz would be available at 2.4 in a 12 teamer. In a 12 teamer he is going in the first round in every draft I've seen.

Well, He was thereThis isn't some million dollar FF world championship league. $100 per team; nothing big. This was actually my first year in this league and I'm pretty happy I hopped inThere was a run on QB's which caused Fitz to drop. Brees, Brady, and Manning all went before my 2nd pick. People were taking Clinton Portis over him. I'm glad this happened because I rode Fitz for a lot of money last season

 

[Nick Vermeil]

I'm in a 10 team HP TE required mock over at Antsports and I tried the WR/WR start. Calvin, AJ, Portis(!!), Jacobs (!). I was the only person who selected a RB in the 3rd round. Ronnie Brown, Ryan Grant, Lynch were all still on the board as well. I may try this stategy a few more times to make sure there are 2 decent RBs left in 3 and 4.

For what it is worth, the guy at 10 went Chris Johnson, D Williams, T. Owens and Bowe, so it would have been just as good to go RW/WR/WR/RB I think but it's hard to argue with the four players I picked up.

 

[shredhead]

I'm in a 10 team HP TE required mock over at Antsports and I tried the WR/WR start. Calvin, AJ, Portis(!!), Jacobs (!). I was the only person who selected a RB in the 3rd round. Ronnie Brown, Ryan Grant, Lynch were all still on the board as well. I may try this stategy a few more times to make sure there are 2 decent RBs left in 3 and 4.

For what it is worth, the guy at 10 went Chris Johnson, D Williams, T. Owens and Bowe, so it would have been just as good to go RW/WR/WR/RB I think but it's hard to argue with the four players I picked up.

I think this is the biggest point in this thread. I think having 2 of each RB and WR at the end of 4 rounds gives you the most flexibility with the rest of your draft. Everyone has different scoring systems and starting requirements, so each person has to decide for themselves which way is going to work best for their league. Watch value and positional runs carefully, and you should come out of round 4 with a solid core to your team no matter which order you chose them in. It just depends on what is more important to you.

 

[gump]

So...what about QB?

In my 10-team, my QB strategy is looking like:

- Manning at 3.9, if the RBs I'm targeting are not there (and there isn't a major WR fall)

- Rodgers at 4.2, if the RBs and WRs I'm targeting are not there (and Manning was gone earlier)

- McNabb at 5.9...don't like Romo here

- Schaub at the 7/8 turn

I think it's a solid plan IF there are RB or WR runs on the guys I want in the 3rd round.

 

[greyscarlet76]

In a 10 team ppr with .5 for completion and I most likely will go with:

Rd 1 A Johnson/R Moss

Rd 2 T Brady/D Brees

Rd 3 and 4 One RB one WR

Rd 5 and 6 one TE and one RB

 

[Darth Cheney]

Another question regarding the WR-WR idea...Couldn't you miss some value or get hurt by a position run more?What if Roddy White falls to 3.09? Can you really go WR-WR-WR?What if a huge RB runs happens in the 3rd and 4th, and the backs you are targeting just aren't there?

This is what kills you......and where knowing your opponents tendencies are key. There are more than a couple of guys in my draft who have no qualms whatsoever about going RB-RB-RB.

 

[tim]

Another question regarding the WR-WR idea...Couldn't you miss some value or get hurt by a position run more?What if Roddy White falls to 3.09? Can you really go WR-WR-WR?What if a huge RB runs happens in the 3rd and 4th, and the backs you are targeting just aren't there?

This is what kills you......and where knowing your opponents tendencies are key. There are more than a couple of guys in my draft who have no qualms whatsoever about going RB-RB-RB.

kind of funny you mention that cuz i went turner-gore-reggie bush-royal and ochocinco first 5 picks,but we can also start 4 rbs,i think starting line-up has a say on how you draft to.

 

[Grahamburn]

I think there is some much value after the 3rd round on RBs you can load up on 2 elite WRs in the first 3 rounds. I plan on going WR RB WR from the ninth slot and waiting on QB until the 6th or later. My league starts 1QB 2 RB 3 WR 1 TE 1K 1 DEF. 4pts for Passing TD. 6pts for rush or rec TD .5 PPR. heres how the draft startedAndre Johnson L. TomlinsonM. ColstonW. WelkerL. JohnsonD. WardT. RomoF. JonesD. SprolesD. DriverE. ManningH. Miller

I like this.I'm starting to become partial to Calvin though in the first. He just seems like he has that moster season in him, and he probably won't make it back to me at the 2.4. Then take the RB that falls in the second. Value from there. I'm in a third round reversal so my third rounder is the 3.4. There seems to be quite a bit of talent left at that spot.I love the idea of starting with two 3-down backs at 1.9 and 2.4 (Gore/Portis), but my WR corps will lack some punch unless I can hit on some late picks. It seems like it may be easier to hit on late RBs.Of the 4 backs above drafted late you can expect at least one to break out and possibly two.

I took Calvin at the 1.9 last night and DeAngelo fell to me at the 2.4. Unless you have a particular back rated quite a bit higher than the rest available at the tail end of the first round it doesn't make sense to pass on your highest rated WR at the 1.9. One of Gore, DeAngelo, Slaton, Chris Johnson, Portis, or Westbrook will be there.

 

[gump]

I took Calvin at the 1.9 last night and DeAngelo fell to me at the 2.4. Unless you have a particular back rated quite a bit higher than the rest available at the tail end of the first round it doesn't make sense to pass on your highest rated WR at the 1.9. One of Gore, DeAngelo, Slaton, Chris Johnson, Portis, or Westbrook will be there.

Nice. Gave you flexibility for the 3/4 also. Who'd you take there?How'd your QB position end up?

 

[Grahamburn]

I took Calvin at the 1.9 last night and DeAngelo fell to me at the 2.4. Unless you have a particular back rated quite a bit higher than the rest available at the tail end of the first round it doesn't make sense to pass on your highest rated WR at the 1.9. One of Gore, DeAngelo, Slaton, Chris Johnson, Portis, or Westbrook will be there.

Nice. Gave you flexibility for the 3/4 also. Who'd you take there?How'd your QB position end up?

I'm in a third round reversal so the rest of my picks weren't really relevant to the thread, but...3.4 Steve Smith4.9 Chad Ocho Cinco5.4 Donovan McNabb6.9 Felix Jones7.4 Donald Brown8.9 Cedric Benson9.4 Percy Harvin10.9 Torry Holt11.4 David Garrard12.9 John CarlsonMy running back depth isn't top notch, but if a couple of those guys can pan out I'm feeling pretty good. We can start three WRs in a .5 PPR and I think I have a pretty distinct advantage starting Calvin, Steve Smith, and Ocho Cinco every week.

 

[The Ghost of Common]

9th pick in a 12 team league

1 QB, 1 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex (RB, WR, TE), 1 TE, 1 K, 1 D

Draft is this weekend...

we get .35 points per reception and major yardage bonuses.

Here's how I HOPE to see my draft shake out:

First Round: Andre Johnson - I really want him for some reason, and I know he will be there - other options to consider will be Forte, DAngelo Williams, Moss, Brees

Second Round: Calvin Johnson or Reggie Wayne - if a top 6 WR is still there I'm going WR/WR otherwise I will consider a RB here.

Third Round: I REALLY think I can get Pierre Thomas or Ryan Grant here and this is what I'm looking to do. I only need to start 1 RB if I choose. I find this to be great value.

Fourth Round: I'm hoping either Pierre Thomas/Ryan Grant/Darren McFadden will be here

Fifth Round: BEST WR available. When I mock it out, I'm looking at: Eddie Royal

Sixth Round: Depending on how many QBs are gone I may go Matt Schaub here. If not, I will consider Ray Rice or someone of that ilk.

Seventh Round: Ray Rice?

Eighth Round: Jamal Lewis or a 4th WR

Ninth Round: Best TE avail - Shiancoe?

Thoughts?

 

[AustinsSooner]

9th pick in a snaking 12 team non-PPR draft last night. Start 1QB, 1RB, 1WR, 1R/W, 1 W/T, D, K.

Here's how it shook out:

1 Randy Moss

2 Stephen Jackon - I was as shocked as you are - no one wanted him, including me, but he was a steal in the early 2nd

3 Ronnie Brown - really loved that he fell to me

4 Tony Romo - homer pick, sorry

5 Marshawn Lynch - nice RB3

6 Santana Moss

7 Eddie Royal

8 Baltimore - too early, I know, but Draft Dominator ranked them as the next best value, so I went with it

9 Donnie Avery

10 David Garrard

11 Fred Jackson

12 Rashard Mendenhall

13 Earl Bennett

14 Ryan Longwell

Getting Moss and SJax in a 12-teamer was rediculous.

 

[DexterDew]

just finished a 12 team draft from the 9 spot.

start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex (RB/WR/TE), 1 DEF and 1 K

PPR, too

before the draft I wanted 4 WRs, 3 RBs and either a QB or TE, depending on value.

there were a few "newbs" in the on-line draft which really messes things up (it's a wine league)

i used the DD and it helps a bunch... but it is tough with a 90 second shot clock to move players in DD and pick on yahoo.... but i digest...

i wanted to start WR/WR since it is a 3 WR plus a flex, and when A Johnson falls to me after 7 RBs and Fitz, I am happy... almost got to Moss who went at 2.03, but love Wayne with his health and QB. A solid pick. for a second I thought of Gore, but wanted a solid WR/WR start

for the 3rd round, i was hoping that Barber or Brown or Thomas (though Brown-less) fell to me. neither did, but i had my choice between Jennings and Welker (!?!). Went with the former and now have three Top 8 WRs in a 3 WR league.

at 4.04 i had my choice between Rodgers and Witten (or LJ and Bush and Lynch). Took Witten for some reason. Four more TEs were gone before my next pick so I would have not got to my first couple of choices, though Daniels made it to 6.10 (not worth a 6.04 pick)

then i go RB the next four picks Ward, Rice, Moreno and Brown... later handcuff with Graham

my QBs are OK with Roth and Hass, missed Garrard because some people love drafting 3 QBs in the first 12 rounds.

in hindsight, i could have grabbed a RB in the first or second round... the 10th pick got Chris Johnson, Moss, Welker and Holmes in the first five (plus T Jones at 4.03, which I dont care for), throw Jones out for Witten and it is a great start, IMHO

so for the first five rounds, you can go 1 QB or TE, 1 RB and 3 WR

i think the simple template for the first nine rounds with a 3 WR and flex league are QB, 3 RB, 4 WR and TE... how you get there is up to the value that falls

 

[Saint]

Just finished my draft. 12 team PPR 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX, 1 K, 1 D.

I agree with the WR/WR or WR/RB at this position. With a majority of teams moving to RBBC, once the top RBs are off, you can either grab a good RB, or a top3 WR. I would argue take the WR and then grab RB in the second...Here's how mine worked out.

1.09 - Larry Fitzgerald

2.04 - Steve Slaton (I was planning on take Andre Johnson, but he went at 2.02 and with Slaton still available, I was giddy)

3.09 - Brandon Jacobs

4.04 - Wes Welker

5.09 - Antonio Gates

6.04 - Brandon Marshall (Figured it was low enough to buy him and if he plays he could be $$$)

7.09 - Julius Jones

8.04 - Matt Schaub

9.09 - Darren Sproles

10.04 - Ben Roethlisberger

11.09 - Josh Morgan

12.04 - Chicago Bears

13.09 - David Akers (Homer pick)

14.04 - Chris Henry

15.09 - Jerome Harrison

16.04 - Todd Heap (He's waiver wire fodder for my bye week issue when my TE and D are both on bye)

 

[gump]

Saint - like it...only knock I see if RB depth, which you will likely need with Jacobs.

What RBs were there at 5.09 and 6.04?

 

[Saint]

At 5.09 and 6.04 not much... Here's what was available:

Reggie Bush (Went at 5.10) - Too injury prone for my taste.
Cedric Benson (Went at 5.12) - Ummm.. no.
Marshawn Lynch (Went at 6.01) - Intriguing...
Jonathan Stewart (Went at 6.03) - No idea what his role is going to be.
Donald Brown - Was tempted.
Willie Parker
Felix JonesI debated about picking Lynch here, but I was hoping with his suspension, he would come back to me at 6.04, which unfortunately he didn't. Figured I would do better taking Gates here with the additional points per game since I planned on going with 3 WR sets for FLEX with PPR.

 

[dirtnap101]

The bottom line is you have to be flexible and lucky. And keep this in mind: It's not every year you can pick up a RB who gets 370+ carries in the 4th round (Turner) or the #1 RB in FF (Deangelo Williams), or Slaton in the later rounds. A high risk/reward strategy is picking the RBs you think can replicate the Turner/Williams sucess, but again that is not only difficult to do but some years those types of RBs just do not exist.

If you go for the safer, steady producers in the first few rounds, regardless of position, you still need to hit on a player or players in the 4th-8th rounds who play like 1st and 2nd rounders in order to dominate and win your league. I would think that people who drafted Deangelo Williams in the 8th/9th or later, or Slaton, or Calvin Johnson in the 4th or later, Jennings in the 6th, Chris Johnson/Matt Forte in the 8th or later, or Cutler in the 9th or later, or Rivers in the 10th or later, all probably did well in leagues around the globe.

The folks who took Barber, Addai, Brady, Moss in the 1st, or Romo early, or Braylon Edwards/Earnest Graham in the 2nd, Maroney or Plaxico in the 3rd, or Holt in the 4th ended up doing pretty poorly on a whole, unless they balanced it off by getting Williams, Slaton, etc.

These examples are all taken from a 10 year redraft league last year. And another point - in the average league your leaguemates are unpredictable and will make picks that make no sense. At least a guy or two shows up having done no prep or almost no prep and goes off the reservation.

The hard part is figuring out who the Deangelo Williams/Slatons/CalJohnsons/Turners/Fortes are in the current year's draft...and then when to take them. It's great to talk about a guy you got in the 11th round who performs like a 9th rounder. But the guy you pick in the 7th round who plays like a 1st rounder is what wins championships.

Once you think you know who they are, how early do you draft them to make sure you get them? Do you want to just make the playoffs or do you want to try and win the whole thing/fall flat on your face?

 

[PatsWillWin]

10 teams, non-PPR, 6 points all TD's, 2 rounds left to go.

Brady, Tom NEP QB	2.02McNabb, Donovan	8.02	Portis, Clinton WAS RB	4.02Lynch, Marshawn BUF RB	5.09Moreno, Knowshon DEN RB	6.02Addai, Joseph IND RB	7.09Benson, Cedric CIN RB	9.09Taylor, Fred NEP RB	14.02	Moss, Randy NEP WR	2.02White, Roddy ATL WR	3.09Henry, Chris CIN WR	10.02Avery, Donnie STL WR	12.02		Miller, Zach OAK TE	11.02			Chicago Bears DST	13.10

 

[gump]

Wow Pats...you are loaded at RB, despite starting Moss/Brady (assume you meant Moss at 1.9).

Portis seems to be falling lately...I've seen that at mocks too. Benson and FT fell real late also.