djcolts
Footballguy
That isn't going to happen. What will happen is that the undeclared "superdelegates" will end up deciding this thing. And, they will vote mostly based on their self-interests.
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*** Official Barack Obama FBG campaign headquarters *** (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter adonis
- Start date
Jeremy
Footballguy
Yeah, I do almost feel sorry for her. I think she thought she was a slam dunk for the nomination based on her name recognition alone. She'll never have another opportunity like this. The Republican party doesn't seem to know what it wants to be, and people are disillusioned after 7 years of this administration. The pendulum certainly seems to have swung in the favor the Democrats and only in a envirnoment such as that would someone as divisive as Hillary have a chance to be elected president. I really think this is her only chance.It is actually getting harder and harder for me to hate Hillary, truth be told. To watch something that someone wants so desparately, with every ounce of their being, slowly slipping away from them is hard to watch. We, of course, have no idea what the final outcome will be, but right now Hillary no doubt sees what we see, which is a rival campaign that has caught fire like few others ever have. If things start to go further south, god knows what she will do.
Jethro Q. Walrustitty
Footballguy
The proverbial one? Nooooooooooooo!I like to pretend I've been paying closer attention to this process, but I haven't. I saw a blurb on CNBC the other night that suggested the race could finish without anyone reaching the required number, but not surprisingly, they provided no explanation as to what would happen in that case. I tend to think it should be as simple as the candidate who has the most delegates wins, but I'm dumb that way.
Jethro Q. Walrustitty
Footballguy
Funny, I just read something that said, in the end, the superdelegates won't matter, but that it's a very real possibility that even with superdelegates, neither candidate will reach the necessary number.
adonis
Footballguy
Odds at this point are that it won't get to a smoke filled room as that would be terrible for the party.The party that got so pissed in the '00 election when the supreme court basically chose the president wouldn't be happy if something similar happened behind closed doors at a meeting. Also, Super Delegates will play a huge role in this not happening, and democrats will be pretty angry if the super delegates vote contrary to the delegate leader, basically overriding the will of the people and the popular vote. Delegate counts don't represent the popular vote in a 1:1 ratio, but they're a good indication of broad candidate support and the person with the most delegates after the elections are over will likely have the backing of the majority of super delegates.They will want to do this to unify the party behind one candidate, make that candidate the choice of the people, and push him (hopefully) or her into the general election with the full support of the democratic voters.
fatguyinalittlecoat
Footballguy
This is only possible if a third candidate gets some delegates. Edwards won 26 delegates, so I suppose if Obama/Clinton was almost exactly even, and the Edwards delegates still voted for Edwards, it could happen. In that case, there would be another round of voting.
adonis
Footballguy
How do you know it about McCain? Because he has policies for NK? Ok, he knows how to handle problems that have been around a while, or at least has policies outlined that details how he'll approach them. What about the challenges that arise during his presidency, that we can't foresee now? Those will likely be the most urgent ones, and they likely won't be ones he's already made policy plans for. How will he handle them?Again, I'm not sniping; but, you know the bolded part how exactly?leasedonttellmeitsyourgutfeel:Thanks for the link -- it doesn't cite specifics, but:
hopefully he's in the realist camp;
thankfully, he's on record as being behind Israel;
being for non-proliferation is pretty much saying "I approve of breathable Oxygen".
You can only go on what you believe a candidates judgement to be, who the person surrounds themselves with in advisors, and their past track record of making good decisions. I think Obama has the judgement, he's surrounding himself with capable advisors, and he has a good track record of making good decisions. He also has the rhetorical skills which are helpful in drawing other countries in to support our causes, possibly at the UN level, or even on an individual level.
If I've read Obama's policy statements correctly, he puts a pretty big emphasis on the US playing a major role in world matters, but doing so through the UN or in conjunction with many other countries, rather than a "go it alone" approach. I believe he'll be able to pull people together when it's needed, pull in the right advisors for solving problems, and be able to sell our solution to the world when we have to.
As I've said before, once you elect a president, you're left with that persons core judgement, values, and decision making on Day 1. All the policies and plans really don't mean the same once he's in office, because as the situations change, so must the policies. So it comes down to who you believe you can best trust in the white house, as a person, as an intellectual, as a leader. If you choose McCain, so be it, but I believe Obama has a better overall skill set that will be advantageous.
Jethro Q. Walrustitty
Footballguy
So it's like with the Pope? They vote until someone gets the required amount and white smoke plumes from the top of the Pepsi Center?
Autumn Wind
Footballguy
Yes, but without the cool hats.
snitwitch
Footballguy
Habemus Candidatus!
saintfool
Dead sexy
Naming rights, I think. "Israestine" or "Palesrael" are being shopped around.
Jethro Q. Walrustitty
Footballguy
Anybody pass out?
snitwitch
Footballguy
Did anyone faint?
snitwitch
Footballguy
adonis
Footballguy
Autumn Wind
Footballguy
I call dibs on marketing ObamaSalts for fainting spells.
Sup_Yo
Footballguy
No, not that I'm aware of!
Jethro Q. Walrustitty
Footballguy
YES!
Sup_Yo
Footballguy
Joe Kidd
Footballguy
Anyone see this on Hardball? From another message board.
On Hardball with Chris Matthews at 5:00 EST, one minute into the show, Hardball flashed an image of Osama Bin Laden when Chris Matthews was opening his first topic about Barack Obama and the war of words that Hillary Clinton is accusing Barack of using Gov Deval Patrick of Mass.
The picture od Osama had the caption "Words Over Words". It flashed for a full second.
On Hardball with Chris Matthews at 5:00 EST, one minute into the show, Hardball flashed an image of Osama Bin Laden when Chris Matthews was opening his first topic about Barack Obama and the war of words that Hillary Clinton is accusing Barack of using Gov Deval Patrick of Mass.
The picture od Osama had the caption "Words Over Words". It flashed for a full second.
Jethro Q. Walrustitty
Footballguy
I'm surprised it took this long, honestly.
NorvilleBarnes
Footballguy
POLL: Clinton Obama nearly tied in Texas.
THE NUMBERS - DEMOCRATS
Hillary Rodham Clinton, 50 percent
Barack Obama, 48 percent
THE NUMBERS - DEMOCRATS
Hillary Rodham Clinton, 50 percent
Barack Obama, 48 percent
Chelsea had better make sure her bags are packed...as Hillary and Bill might be selling her to the North Koreans if it'll buy them a few more votes and get them back into the White House in January. EDITED TO ADD: Game on! 
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Statorama
Footballguy
I think Clinton getting the nom could be the best thing in the world for Obama. Hillary would get beaten pretty resoundingly by McCain, setting up a four year "things would be better if I were in there" tour for Obama. During those 4 years, he sharpens his skills, gets behind some serious legislation, shakes all the right hands and comes out smoking in 2012. This will also give 4 more years for Iraq to get things together, giving Obama the perfect opportunity to come in and end that thing the right way. He'd still have the legacy of being the president that ended the war, without all the consequences of pulling out now.
fatguyinalittlecoat
Footballguy
This plan seems foolproof.
Orange Crush
Footballguy
Except Michelle said she and Barack made a deal. It's now or never. They're not going to put their kids through this again (unless 2012 is a re-election campaign). Now who knows if they stick with that. It could be renegotiated. But I'd rather that Obama wins the presidency this year and not have to worry about any other scenarios.
Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
Obama is better off running against an incumbent?
Jethro Q. Walrustitty
Footballguy
Let's ask Mr. Gore how it worked out.Actually, it probably worked out better for Mr. Gore. For the country as a whole? Meh. This would be my concern for Obama: if he doesn't win the presidency this time around, perhaps he'll find a different calling ala Gore. Perhaps that will turn out to be best for all involved ala Gore, but I'd rather not sit through another 4 years of Republican presidency to find out.
Statorama
Footballguy
McCain is likely going to be a trainwreck, especially with Obama pointing out all the bad things he does for 4 years. He's only seriously emerged as a candidate to the general population over the last couple of years. With 4 years of speechifyin while having the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, he'll be unstoppable in 4 years.Obama is basically running against an incumbent now anyway, with McCain representing another term of "Republican Insider" rule. He can point to it being 12 years of Republican Mistakes in 2012.Obama is better off running against an incumbent?
Statorama
Footballguy
Sounds just like a woman.Damn dude (edit to add: 'dude' is directed at Obama, not at Orange Crush), either you want to be president or not. Is being president in 2012 that much different than 2008?
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Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
He can point to 8 years now - and he is riding a crest TODAY - who knows how the winds will shift in four years. The best thing for Obama is to get the nom this year because he is beating McCain nationally in every poll.McCain is likely going to be a trainwreck, especially with Obama pointing out all the bad things he does for 4 years. He's only seriously emerged as a candidate to the general population over the last couple of years. With 4 years of speechifyin while having the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, he'll be unstoppable in 4 years.Obama is basically running against an incumbent now anyway, with McCain representing another term of "Republican Insider" rule. He can point to it being 12 years of Republican Mistakes in 2012.Obama is better off running against an incumbent?
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Statorama
Footballguy
We're getting off track of my original point.Getting the nomination this year would be great, but it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world if he didn't.He can point to 8 years now - and he is riding a crest TPDAY - who knows how th ewinds will shift in four years. The best thing for Obama is to get the nom this year because he is beating McCain nationally in every poll.McCain is likely going to be a trainwreck, especially with Obama pointing out all the bad things he does for 4 years. He's only seriously emerged as a candidate to the general population over the last couple of years. With 4 years of speechifyin while having the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, he'll be unstoppable in 4 years.Obama is basically running against an incumbent now anyway, with McCain representing another term of "Republican Insider" rule. He can point to it being 12 years of Republican Mistakes in 2012.Obama is better off running against an incumbent?
Bottomfeeder Sports
Footballguy
Yes it would! The world can't wait 4 more years.
timschochet
Footballguy
All of you Obama fans on this thread consistently underestimate John McCain. It's perfectly natural for you to be in love with your own candidate, but comments like "McCain is a trainwreck" and "McCain will represent four more years of Republican rule," are missing the boat.
You are not the only ones making this error. Frank Rich of the New York Times wrote an article yesterday relating how Obama was "Young hip and cool" while McCain seemed like "the old man coming from the country club." This is hogwash.
Please understand two things:
1. John McCain is a unique candidate. He comes from no Republican party tradition. In many ways, he creates his own tradition. He is arguably the most heroic man ever to run for President. There are many, many Americans who absolutely revere this man and all he has gone through.
2. The fierce competition between Obama and Clinton has forced both of them to go the left much farther than they normally would in order to secure the Democratic base. This fact, combined with the backlash by conservatives against McCain, will allow McCain to occupy the center in the national election. Above all other things (even youth and charisma) the ability to occupy the center is usually decisive in American politics.
I am not predicting at this time that McCain will be our next president. The future is hard to read. But any of you who think this election is going to be an easy walkover for Obama if he can just get by Clinton has got a surprise waiting for you in the fall.
You are not the only ones making this error. Frank Rich of the New York Times wrote an article yesterday relating how Obama was "Young hip and cool" while McCain seemed like "the old man coming from the country club." This is hogwash.
Please understand two things:
1. John McCain is a unique candidate. He comes from no Republican party tradition. In many ways, he creates his own tradition. He is arguably the most heroic man ever to run for President. There are many, many Americans who absolutely revere this man and all he has gone through.
2. The fierce competition between Obama and Clinton has forced both of them to go the left much farther than they normally would in order to secure the Democratic base. This fact, combined with the backlash by conservatives against McCain, will allow McCain to occupy the center in the national election. Above all other things (even youth and charisma) the ability to occupy the center is usually decisive in American politics.
I am not predicting at this time that McCain will be our next president. The future is hard to read. But any of you who think this election is going to be an easy walkover for Obama if he can just get by Clinton has got a surprise waiting for you in the fall.
Arsenal of Doom
Footballguy
I know I don't speak for everyone in here, but I think the prevailing sense in this thread isn't that McCain is pushover. Far from it; I, and many others, think he would beat Clinton, and Obama simply matches up far better against him than Hillary does.I'll be honest, If Hillary wins the nomination I'm going have think long and hard about who to vote for in November even though policy wise there isn't much separating Clinton and Obama. I think another Clinton presidency is the real potential train-wreck, and I might prefer to take my chances that McCain suddenly turns back into a moderate again once he has the nomination.
fatguyinalittlecoat
Footballguy
I think Obama will steamroll McCain. Maybe I'm overly optimistic, but I don't think it will be close.
ETA: I also predicted Kerry would win in 2004, and that the GOP nomination this year would go to a brokered convention, so I don't have a great track record on these things.
ETA: I also predicted Kerry would win in 2004, and that the GOP nomination this year would go to a brokered convention, so I don't have a great track record on these things.
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phthalatemagic
Footballguy
I agree. I think Hillary would steamroll McCain too though. Republicans are going down hard in November.
H Jass
Footballguy
No, you may have been wrong on those others, but I think you're dead-on in your Obama vs. McCain prediction. I lean conservative, but once you begin to look at things state by state I think the momentum Obama would have coming out of a dogfight for the nomination would lead to a blowout in the general.
timschochet
Footballguy
OK guys, you could be right, we'll see...Hugh Jass said:
Gopher State
Footballguy
McCain: No new taxes if elected prez
Republican presidential hopeful Sen. John McCain of Arizona stands next to a painting of former President Ronald Reagan at the American Serb Memorial Hall in Milwaukee during a campaign stop on Friday. McCain says he will institute no new taxes if elected president.
No new taxes," the likely Republican presidential nominee said during a taped interview broadcast Sunday.
McCain told ABC television's "This Week" that under no circumstances would he increase taxes, and added that he could "see an argument, if our economy continues to deteriorate, for lower interest rates, lower tax rates, and certainly decreasing corporate tax rates," as well as giving people the ability to write off depreciation and eliminating the alternative minimum tax.
McCain was defending his support for an extension of tax cuts sought by President George W. Bush, which McCain had originally voted against.
In 2001, McCain said the Bush tax cuts helped the wealthy at the expense of the middle class, and in 2003 he said there should be no tax relief until the cost of the Iraq war was known. Those votes upset the party's conservative base, which he is now trying to rally to his side.
The Arizona senator now says allowing the tax breaks to expire would amount to an unacceptable tax increase.
Democratic presidential contender Barack Obama said last week he admired McCain when he was one of the few Republicans to stand up and say "it offended his conscience to support the Bush tax cut for the wealthy in the time of war." But the Illinois senator accused McCain, who calls his campaign bus the "Straight Talk Express," of bowing to political expediency to appease Republican conservatives.
"Somewhere along the road to the Republican nomination, the Straight Talk Express lost its wheels because now it is all for those same tax cuts," Obama said.
McCain's "no new taxes" statement marked a turnaround. Last September, he was forced to defend his refusal to sign a no-new tax pledge offered by the conservative Americans for Tax Reform.
"I stand on my record," he said during a televised debate in Durham, New Hampshire. "I don't have to sign pledges."
The leading contender for his party's presidential nomination, McCain blamed out-of-control spending for a lack of enthusiasm among Republican voters.
"Spending restraint is why our base is not energized," he said. "I think it's very important that we send a signal to the American people we're going to stop the earmark pork-barrel spending."
McCain said the $35 billion worth of spending on special projects that Bush signed into law in the last two years amounts to a $1,000 tax credit for every child in America, and would have been better for the economy if spent that way.
McCain also said he was open to the idea of helping homeowners facing foreclosure, provided they were "legitimate borrowers" and not "engaged in speculation."
Copyright 2008 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.
All you hear from Obama is increasing the social security payroll tax, and capital gains tax. I can see a lot of dem baby boomer voters(55+) going with McCain over Obama they will show up to vote, lets see if the under 30 crowd shows up for Obama come election day.
Bottom line don't under estimate McCain
Republican presidential hopeful Sen. John McCain of Arizona stands next to a painting of former President Ronald Reagan at the American Serb Memorial Hall in Milwaukee during a campaign stop on Friday. McCain says he will institute no new taxes if elected president.
No new taxes," the likely Republican presidential nominee said during a taped interview broadcast Sunday.
McCain told ABC television's "This Week" that under no circumstances would he increase taxes, and added that he could "see an argument, if our economy continues to deteriorate, for lower interest rates, lower tax rates, and certainly decreasing corporate tax rates," as well as giving people the ability to write off depreciation and eliminating the alternative minimum tax.
McCain was defending his support for an extension of tax cuts sought by President George W. Bush, which McCain had originally voted against.
In 2001, McCain said the Bush tax cuts helped the wealthy at the expense of the middle class, and in 2003 he said there should be no tax relief until the cost of the Iraq war was known. Those votes upset the party's conservative base, which he is now trying to rally to his side.
The Arizona senator now says allowing the tax breaks to expire would amount to an unacceptable tax increase.
Democratic presidential contender Barack Obama said last week he admired McCain when he was one of the few Republicans to stand up and say "it offended his conscience to support the Bush tax cut for the wealthy in the time of war." But the Illinois senator accused McCain, who calls his campaign bus the "Straight Talk Express," of bowing to political expediency to appease Republican conservatives.
"Somewhere along the road to the Republican nomination, the Straight Talk Express lost its wheels because now it is all for those same tax cuts," Obama said.
McCain's "no new taxes" statement marked a turnaround. Last September, he was forced to defend his refusal to sign a no-new tax pledge offered by the conservative Americans for Tax Reform.
"I stand on my record," he said during a televised debate in Durham, New Hampshire. "I don't have to sign pledges."
The leading contender for his party's presidential nomination, McCain blamed out-of-control spending for a lack of enthusiasm among Republican voters.
"Spending restraint is why our base is not energized," he said. "I think it's very important that we send a signal to the American people we're going to stop the earmark pork-barrel spending."
McCain said the $35 billion worth of spending on special projects that Bush signed into law in the last two years amounts to a $1,000 tax credit for every child in America, and would have been better for the economy if spent that way.
McCain also said he was open to the idea of helping homeowners facing foreclosure, provided they were "legitimate borrowers" and not "engaged in speculation."
Copyright 2008 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.
All you hear from Obama is increasing the social security payroll tax, and capital gains tax. I can see a lot of dem baby boomer voters(55+) going with McCain over Obama they will show up to vote, lets see if the under 30 crowd shows up for Obama come election day.
Bottom line don't under estimate McCain
suspected
Footballguy
Things have the potential to change a whole lot between now and November. In February 04 Kerry was ahead of Bush 53 - 46.phthalatemagic said:
http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/02/02/...prez/index.html
As late as May 04 Kerry was ahead of of Bush 49 - 41.
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/05/26/...ain619786.shtml
(Interestingly, it was suggested a Kerry/McCain ticket would have been especially strong)
Obama is currently an undefined candidate in the minds of most voters (even many of his supporters). One way or another he will be defined by November. He certainly could blowout McCain (in the electoral battle). But if the McCain campaign is successful in defining an Obama presidency it could just as easily be a Republican blowout.
Of course people are a tad more excited about Obama than they were about Kerry.
Voltaire
Footballguy
I've seen this movie, I think.
Pai Mei
Footballguy
It struck me today that the byline to this thread of "First Post has lots of Policy DETAILS - Bring friends, ask questions" only reinforces the current criticism of Obama. The criticism is that Obama is mostly hot air with little policy details nor experience. So the person on the fence would read that byline and ponder "Shouldn't Obama be the one getting his policy ideas out there? Why is it being left to his biggest fans, who are obviously making it a top priority to try to get it out? Why isn't Obama trying harder?"
timschochet
Footballguy
Not about the old; I was talking about the country club part. McCain can barely lift his arms; I can't see him playing a whole lot of golf.
