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Official Donald Trump for President thread (4 Viewers)

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LittlePhatty said:
Because the truth is she's not a softball at all, despite the GOP and conservative media doing their best for the past 12+ years to turn her into that. There will always be some political pandering done on both sides, but certain conservatives have taken that to an all time low with Hillary and Obama. They've created a monster that they can't control.

I'm talking about the certifiable nutjobs like Alex Jones, who says things like "Hillary and Obama are possessed by demons and want to destroy our country", and he actually has an audience that truly believes that crazy ####. It's no coincidence Trump called Hillary "the devil" during the town hall debate. And by ramping up the "crazy" to bring out those voters, they are alienating the intelligent and rational people who would gladly vote for almost any other Republican cadidate based on policy alone. 
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Fair or not, she should have been a softball for this very reason. She's always been a hugely polarizing figure, isn't charismatic, and has some very legitimate weaknesses in the email issue and some of her foreign policy calls. I actually think that the anti-Hillary extremism has helped her in some ways, as it causes the legitimate questions to get drowned out among all of the obvious BS -- after all, most people don't really pay a ton of attention to this stuff up until about the last month every four years.

 
The Republican party will survive, but what do they run on?   By (mostly) embracing Trump they've surrendered all their best talking points.  They'll certainly never be able to run on values again (except "forgiveness" apparently).  He wipes his ### with the constitution.  He's even insulted the military and praised dictators.  And embarrassed them in so many different ways. How do you convince the voters you're the good guys after this? 

 
IvanKaramazov said:
True.  That's what happens when people decide to hold their noses and vote for the least-bad candidate because of the Supreme Court or whatever.  

If you look down on evangelicals because they're sticking by their party and won't break with Trump, that's fair.  Understand that I feel the same way about many Clinton supporters.
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Democrats had Bernie, O'Malley, and Clinton to choose from. She is not a bad choice out of that.

Trump is a ridiculous selection.

 
Jeremy said:
The Republican party will survive, but what do they run on?   By (mostly) embracing Trump they've surrendered all their best talking points.  They'll certainly never be able to run on values again (except "forgiveness" apparently).  He wipes his ### with the constitution.  He's even insulted the military and praised dictators.  And embarrassed them in so many different ways. How do you convince the voters you're the good guys after this? 
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Barring a disastrous economy, Democrats are going to control the White House for many, many years.

 
Jeremy said:
The Republican party will survive, but what do they run on?   By (mostly) embracing Trump they've surrendered all their best talking points.  They'll certainly never be able to run on values again (except "forgiveness" apparently).  He wipes his ### with the constitution.  He's even insulted the military and praised dictators.  And embarrassed them in so many different ways. How do you convince the voters you're the good guys after this?
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Folks should read the internal memoranda from WL, here's one, here's another, which it seems to me shows two things:

  • Pied Pipers kill the GOP and the Dem Party wants to see them in the lead of the party.
  • Those with 'Message & Credibility' are a problem.


Out of the last round it appears Rubio and Rand Paul were the most concerning. They did not mention him but I'm sure Kasich would fall into this group as well.

- The other thing to realize is that nationalism is not conservatism. Also, the Talk Radio Wing needs to be killed. Trump is actually the oft discussed scenario where one of the AM personalities were to run for president, his campaign is basically one long midday call-in by Dunk Don from Dubuque.

- eta - The GOP still has the 'Message & Credibility' option available to them, but the party leadership needs to be purged and controls need to be set - like insisting that tax returns and other documentation be provided in advance - before candidates are allowed to run on the main stage.

 
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Leeroy Jenkins said:
They need to let them fall by the wayside. Get rid of the relgious and anti-gay rhetoric and get reasonable on a few other issues, while letting the DNC move further left. It will take a few cycles, but people want socially left and fiscally right -- they could build towards that and dominate millenials as they age and make money. 
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A few cycles is a LONG time and could result in some really significant structural changes.  If Republicans spend the next five years shuffling their coalition, they could find themselves even further away from power.  The Supreme Court and other federal courts would be solidly in Democratic hands for the foreseeable future.  The Supreme Court would strike down voter ID laws and other tactics that were designed to help move the electorate to the right.  Democrats would have passed an immigration plan with a pathway to citizenship (and voting rights) for millions of immigrants that currently align with Democrats.  Democrats would have improved their standing in state governments, thereby allowing them the opportunity to gerrymander Congressional seats.  Dems could even take more aggressive steps to improve the voting population from their standpoint.  A serious attempt at D.C. statehood?  A national effort to return voting rights to felons? 

I don't think the "abandon a big chunk of your voting base" plan is workable, although admittedly I don't have any good suggestions for how Republicans should proceed.  They are in a tough spot.

 
In 2020 there will be about three million fewer senior voters and about 12 million more millenial voters, very bad news for conservatives. Republicans are already getting beat in every demographic except non-college educated white men so maybe this time they ought to pay attention to the autopsy report. Repeating this year's fiasco is not the road back to power in an election where reapportionment will be at stake.

 
Andy Dufresne said:
But what can the Party do about the nutjobs that they've brought into the fold that think they're conservatives when they're really just Joker-type right wingers that just wanted to watch things burn? Those people are going to demand the same the next cycle and aren't going to go away.
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Honestly, something as simple as switching to proportional delegate allocation for their primaries would go a long way toward fixing this. If they'd had that system this year, Rubio or Kasich would have ended up as the nominee on like the second or third ballot. Maybe Trump runs independent and costs them the election anyway, but at that point there's not much you can do if one ###hole is just out to torpedo your party.

Assuming they keep control of most state governments, redistricting might be able to help them after 2020 also. It seems like a large share of the blame for the state of the party has to do with the fact that an awful lot of Representatives are more scared of losing their seats to a primary challenger from the right than to a Democrat. Get rid of some of these safe-but-ultraconservative seats and draw up more balanced districts, and you might get fewer GOP officials voting to shut down the government and nuke Washington or whatever. Breitbart and the like would still be out there stirring up the crazy, but it might seem less legitimate if people didn't see their own politicians repeating it.

 
Man in the yellow hat said:
My hope is the left continues to paint the people who are sick of their politics as the "lunatic fringe." I think this election has shown more than anything that there are a whole bunch of people sick of whiny, over protective, daddy government types. A correction is coming. The cycle will shift. People are getting fed up with safe spaces, media attacks on the right, and censorship. I expect a shift to the right to continue, regardless of what happens in this election.  
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Nah.  This is it.  This is the entirety of the movement.  Savor it.

The alt-right came out from their Twitter trolling to vote for Trump, and good for them.  

This 'movement' needs to involve winning smaller races, to have any poilitical power whatsoever.  You really see that happening?  Someone is going to win a political race based on what, promising to do away with political correctness and safe spaces?

Best of luck with that.  

 
Scary thing is that he really could still win. I live in PA and think the polls could be missing the lunatic fringe that has bled into the philly/Pitt suburbs from the middle of the state. 

 
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cstu said:
Barring a disastrous economy, Democrats are going to control the White House for many, many years.
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Hillary couldn't even get 50% of the vote against a guy who has never been a democrat in the primary. She is struggling to get 45% of the vote against Donald effing Trump. I don't see the economy getting much better with the Fed propping it up now. I'd put the chances of Hillary getting re-elected in 2020 at below 50%. Once Trump finally disappears, people will realize how much of a disaster Hillary is. I expect to see an even bigger anti-establishment movement in 2020. Dems best chance would be for Hillary to not run in 2020, or get beat in the primaries.

 
ArbyMelt said:
Hillary couldn't even get 50% of the vote against a guy who has never been a democrat in the primary. She is struggling to get 45% of the vote against Donald effing Trump. I don't see the economy getting much better with the Fed propping it up now. I'd put the chances of Hillary getting re-elected in 2020 at below 50%. Once Trump finally disappears, people will realize how much of a disaster Hillary is. I expect to see an even bigger anti-establishment movement in 2020. Dems best chance would be for Hillary to not run in 2020, or get beat in the primaries.
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Yeah, but the Republicans need to put someone up there worthy of unseating her.  Do you feel confident that a Rubio or Cruz can knock her off?  

And four years after that, it won't be Hillary running again.  The GOP will never get as weak a candidate as this again.  

Someone needs to explain to me how a guy no one admits to liking, Ted Cruz, got so many votes.  

 
Man in the yellow hat said:
My hope is the left continues to paint the people who are sick of their politics as the "lunatic fringe." I think this election has shown more than anything that there are a whole bunch of people sick of whiny, over protective, daddy government types. A correction is coming. The cycle will shift. People are getting fed up with safe spaces, media attacks on the right, and censorship. I expect a shift to the right to continue, regardless of what happens in this election.  
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"Lunatic fringe" is a perfect, succinct description.  There simply aren't enough dumb white men to cultivate the numbers required to create this kind of cycle shift.  Clearly, there are more than a few, but not enough to go from cult/fringe to mainstream.

 
ArbyMelt said:
Hillary couldn't even get 50% of the vote against a guy who has never been a democrat in the primary. She is struggling to get 45% of the vote against Donald effing Trump. I don't see the economy getting much better with the Fed propping it up now. I'd put the chances of Hillary getting re-elected in 2020 at below 50%. Once Trump finally disappears, people will realize how much of a disaster Hillary is. I expect to see an even bigger anti-establishment movement in 2020. Dems best chance would be for Hillary to not run in 2020, or get beat in the primaries.
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The same way the people realized how much of a disaster Obama was?  You guys write the same thing over and over and over.

 
Leeroy Jenkins said:
Scary thing is that he really could still win. I live in PA and think the polls could be missing the lunatic fringe that has bled into the philly/Pitt suburbs from the middle of the state. 
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Yup.  I understand why everyone is acting like it's over, but if it truly was you wouldn't be able to buy a Clinton victory at the low low price of -425 or so. That's the kind of price you see for a 3 v 14 matchup in the NCAA tournament, not a 1 vs 16 matchup. And it's not just about the GOP possibly replacing Trump or something happening to Clinton between now and November 8, either. Trump is around +325.

It's possible that wagers on politics are capped so they can keep the price relatively low without risking too much exposure, but it's still kinda surprising considering the events of the last week.

 
He's going to totally shift off of attacking Hillary (who he probably actually likes in real life) and toward lashing out at the GOP people who he sees as betraying him. Unreal.

 
TobiasFunke said:
Yup.  I understand why everyone is acting like it's over, but if it truly was you wouldn't be able to buy a Clinton victory at the low low price of -425 or so. That's the kind of price you see for a 3 v 14 matchup in the NCAA tournament, not a 1 vs 16 matchup. And it's not just about the GOP possibly replacing Trump or something happening to Clinton between now and November 8, either. Trump is around +325.

It's possible that wagers on politics are capped so they can keep the price relatively low without risking too much exposure, but it's still kinda surprising considering the events of the last week.
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I'd guess that the line will move substantially by week's end once we have more polling that reflects the Access Hollywood tape and his desertion by the rest of the party.

 
ArbyMelt said:
Hillary couldn't even get 50% of the vote against a guy who has never been a democrat in the primary. She is struggling to get 45% of the vote against Donald effing Trump. I don't see the economy getting much better with the Fed propping it up now. I'd put the chances of Hillary getting re-elected in 2020 at below 50%. Once Trump finally disappears, people will realize how much of a disaster Hillary is. I expect to see an even bigger anti-establishment movement in 2020. Dems best chance would be for Hillary to not run in 2020, or get beat in the primaries.
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GOP failed to in any meaningful way articulate what a disaster Obama was this cycle.  I can't really recall Trump even being able to form one complete sentence encompassing an Obama policy he would like to see changed beyond trade deals, which is too complicated I assume for most to realize how Trump took a position left of Hillary on.  

So in the intervening years assuming Hillary is a defacto 3rd Obama term, how do you see this changing, and by whom?  

What specific policy positions did Trump not articulate that the GOP candidate for 2020 should latch on to?  

 
Jeremy said:
The Republican party will survive, but what do they run on?   By (mostly) embracing Trump they've surrendered all their best talking points.  They'll certainly never be able to run on values again (except "forgiveness" apparently).  He wipes his ### with the constitution.  He's even insulted the military and praised dictators.  And embarrassed them in so many different ways. How do you convince the voters you're the good guys after this? 
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Well, the way some people tell it Clinton was responsible for 9/11, Obama destroyed the economy, and Republicans were against going into Iraq from the start, so you never know.

They're pretty good at revisionist history.

 
culdeus said:
GOP failed to in any meaningful way articulate what a disaster Obama was this cycle.  I can't really recall Trump even being able to form one complete sentence encompassing an Obama policy he would like to see changed beyond trade deals, which is too complicated I assume for most to realize how Trump took a position left of Hillary on.  

So in the intervening years assuming Hillary is a defacto 3rd Obama term, how do you see this changing, and by whom?  

What specific policy positions did Trump not articulate that the GOP candidate for 2020 should latch on to?  
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"Lock her up"!!!!

 
Dinsy Ejotuz said:
It's not a binary thing -- Dems won the WH in 1976 despite being completely at odds with the political currents.
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If Hillary breaks into the Watergate Hotel, GOP will definitely be in the driver's seat in 2020

 
Coeur de Lion said:
I'd guess that the line will move substantially by week's end once we have more polling that reflects the Access Hollywood tape and his desertion by the rest of the party.
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Today's odds:

Clinton -600
Trump +450

Emy thought he was getting a sweetheart deal when I offered him 3-1 when it was 2.5-1.  Just hope he's an honorable bettor.

 
SaintsInDome2006 said:
- Important article with actual good reporting.

- Of all the stuff bandied about concerning Donald, this issue bothers me more than any other. The man is shaping up to essentially be a Putin puppet. Whatever ugly stuff was said about Obama in 08, just fill it in here and this time it's for real.
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Donald Trump, Putin’s puppet

ON FRIDAY, while much of the country was preoccupied with the latest revelations about Donald Trump, the U.S. intelligence community made an alarming and unprecedented announcement: Russia was seeking “to interfere with the U.S. election process” through the hacking of political organizations and individuals, including the Democratic National Committee. The statement rightly alarmed Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, who said in Sunday night’s debate that “we have never in the history of our country been in a situation where an adversary, a foreign power, is working so hard to influence the outcome of the election.”

...
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/donald-trump-putins-puppet/2016/10/10/451f099e-8f0e-11e6-a6a3-d50061aa9fae_story.html?utm_term=.b0deb7d7ef81

 
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