Official Donald Trump for President thread (2 Viewers)

[Run It Up]

But how big are his hands really?

 

[Bob Magaw]

What Germans really think about those Hitler-Trump comparisons

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/11/07/what-germans-really-think-about-those-hitler-trump-comparisons/

Trump’s not Hitler, he’s Mussolini: How GOP anti-intellectualism created a modern fascist movement in America


Fascism is about the most powerful epithet one can use -- but it fits with Donald Trump. A historian explains why


http://www.salon.com/2016/03/11/trumps_not_hitler_hes_mussolini_how_gop_anti_intellectualism_created_a_modern_fascist_movement_in_america/


An American Authoritarian


The Republican presidential candidate is not a Fascist, but his campaign bears notable similarities to the reign of Italian dictator Benito Mussolini.

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/08/american-authoritarianism-under-donald-trump/495263/

A Scholar of Fascism Sees a Lot That’s Familiar with Trump

http://www.newyorker.com/culture/culture-desk/a-scholar-of-fascism-sees-a-lot-thats-familiar-with-trump

 

[Henry Ford]

But how big are his hands really?

Bigly.

 

[Jeremy]

So apparently yesterday Trump talked about winning Michigan's Man of the Year award and then spoke in detail about the controversy he created with his acceptance speech (speaking on illegal immigration).   Nobody can seem to find any evidence of him winning any such an award or giving a speech.  He seems to have made it up out of thin air. 

 

[glvsav37]

I can more than respect most of this line of thought..it traditional conservatism and it belongs in the national discussion. One of my biggest counterpoints is this though: people earning wages at the lower end of the pay spectrum (as illegals are) don't pay much in payroll taxes anyway...we aren't missing much there. But they pay just as much in other taxes...food, gasoline, sales taxes. To continually harp on "but they don't pay taxes" is short-sighted and inaccurate. It's not only a lie, but a very misleading one because in the end they pay nearly as much as olks on the books making the same money.

Even more ironic is that the folks most concerned about illegal immigrants are also against raising minimum wages, or often would prefer there wasn't a minimum wage at all. Yet, if all the jobs being performed by illegals were suddenly made legal, how many of those jobs would require a RAISE to meet minimum wage?

I don't think Trump's positions on immigration are, in and of themselves, unusual or immoral, just short-sighted. It's his rhetoric that's dangerous. There are MUCH bigger problems with his actual positions on other topics. (NUCS FOR EVERYBODY!)

Undocumented immigration is a huge issue here in my community...Farmingville Long Island. 

I agree that they do pay the same sales and other at-will type taxes. But, aside from the low amount of payroll taxes they are not paying, there is also real estate taxes that go missing as well. Around here, there are any homes that are rented out to multiple families and or large groups of men. They are largely unsafe and not in good condition. My wife is a teacher in the local elementary school and every year, more and more of her classroom is non-english speaking kids who require addition ESL support. They have just doubled the ESL staff in her school to accommodate it. I addition to the standardized testing measures the state is basing teacher's performance on, these kids are missing large chunks of general classroom time b/c they are out learning how to speak english. And all the while not paying the property taxes that are funding the school district. Yes, the landlord may be, but there are multiple families, or overly large families living in these houses. It has put a huge strain on education. 

Also, as a community, it is a blight b/c we have corners of main streets where huge groups of men are standing around waiting to get picked up for day-labor type jobs. The areas are generally littered and nothing can grow there bc/ any space off of the street is getting trampled.

I agree, it is a huge issue that does not have 1 simple solution. I am completely in favor of making the path to citizenship easier and more desirable for these families. But also tighter control on who is hiring undocumented workers. They are the ones who are supporting the behavior and in return (as the employer) taking employee tax out of our system. Similarly, I would like us to bring some support and encouragement of our youth to train for trade jobs...many of the jobs that undocumented are doing—construction, manufacturing and other service type jobs. However, we are pushing our kids to go to college wether they belong there or not, and there are fewer jobs available for them if they make it through. Likewise, we need to look for ways to lower the cost of living demonically so that blue collar jobs are viable options for our kids, and allows them to buy a home and raise a family. 

 

 

[LittlePhatty]

So apparently yesterday Trump talked about winning Michigan's Man of the Year award and then spoke in detail about the controversy he created with his acceptance speech (speaking on illegal immigration).   Nobody can seem to find any evidence of him winning and such an award or giving a speech.  He seems to have made it up out of thin air. 

He probably took this literally: Time Magazine Person of the Year

 

[squistion]

Huffington PostVerified account ‏@HuffingtonPost 1h1 hour ago

Scottie Nell Hughes called a Molotov cocktail a "mazel tov cocktail" on CNN

http://huff.to/2evscpX

 

[NutterButter]

He probably took this literally: Time Magazine Person of the Year

 

[Koya]

Undocumented immigration is a huge issue here in my community...Farmingville Long Island. 

I agree that they do pay the same sales and other at-will type taxes. But, aside from the low amount of payroll taxes they are not paying, there is also real estate taxes that go missing as well. Around here, there are any homes that are rented out to multiple families and or large groups of men. They are largely unsafe and not in good condition. My wife is a teacher in the local elementary school and every year, more and more of her classroom is non-english speaking kids who require addition ESL support. They have just doubled the ESL staff in her school to accommodate it. I addition to the standardized testing measures the state is basing teacher's performance on, these kids are missing large chunks of general classroom time b/c they are out learning how to speak english. And all the while not paying the property taxes that are funding the school district. Yes, the landlord may be, but there are multiple families, or overly large families living in these houses. It has put a huge strain on education. 

Also, as a community, it is a blight b/c we have corners of main streets where huge groups of men are standing around waiting to get picked up for day-labor type jobs. The areas are generally littered and nothing can grow there bc/ any space off of the street is getting trampled.

I agree, it is a huge issue that does not have 1 simple solution. I am completely in favor of making the path to citizenship easier and more desirable for these families. But also tighter control on who is hiring undocumented workers. They are the ones who are supporting the behavior and in return (as the employer) taking employee tax out of our system. Similarly, I would like us to bring some support and encouragement of our youth to train for trade jobs...many of the jobs that undocumented are doing—construction, manufacturing and other service type jobs. However, we are pushing our kids to go to college wether they belong there or not, and there are fewer jobs available for them if they make it through. Likewise, we need to look for ways to lower the cost of living demonically so that blue collar jobs are viable options for our kids, and allows them to buy a home and raise a family. 

 

While you have some valid points as to the stressors (and you think it's tough in your district, try Hempstead, where an already poor community and fraud riddled school system now have 80% latino populations in younger grades, many undocumented), there are simple ways where you, on a local level, can affect change.

For one, most of the housing situation you discuss is illegal to begin with. There ARE laws to avoid that situation, just enforce them. Or elect people who will.  

There are also solutions for day workers who gather (and, without whom, Long Island's economy would come to a near halt in certain sectors... again, have your politicians enforce the current laws and you'd be half way there - or recognize the laws don't work and find, as you seem to suggest, a more comprehensive solution) - some places have specific locations and in this way it becomes a community asset in terms of connecting those seeking (under the table usually) work with those seeking to provide it.

That said, the real answer, which we may agree upon, is not to look at each symptom of illegal immigration, but rather the collective whole and a solution that alleviates short term stresses while allowing for positive and sustainable change long term that is in everyone's benefit. I will say, the population of illegal immigrants are the VERY type of people, by and large, we want here in America. Very hard working. Brave (just to get here). Entrepreneurial in a way that the white population and other established population segments are not so much, any more. They are also generally very loyal/Patriotic and very willing to pay taxes and be legitimized.  

 

[Koya]

Huffington PostVerified account ‏@HuffingtonPost 1h1 hour ago

Scottie Nell Hughes called a Molotov cocktail a "mazel tov cocktail" on CNN

http://huff.to/2evscpX

Had a number of those on the bar mitzvah circuit back in the day. Our parents though we were whooping it up while drinking cokes.  We were, just with rum as well. Didn't take much at 13 for the result to resemble a direct hit from a molotov cocktail.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Muslim bans for some, miniature American flags for others.

 

[cstu]

What Germans really think about those Hitler-Trump comparisons

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/11/07/what-germans-really-think-about-those-hitler-trump-comparisons/

“Dear Americans.”

The poster that started to widely circulate on social media during the weekend had no particular sender, except for “the people of Germany.” Its message was a clear one: Don't elect Donald Trump, or else you will have your own Adolf Hitler.

“Go ahead, vote for the guy with the loud voice who hates minorities, threatens to imprison his opponents, doesn't give a f--- about democracy, and claims he alone can fix everything. What could possibly go wrong? Good luck,” read the sign with the hashtag #BeenThereDoneThat.

In an interview conducted via Twitter, the author of the letter that went viral over the weekend defended his comparison on Sunday, saying exaggeration was necessary to raise attention in the United States.

“Of course it appears arrogant to claim to speak for the whole Germany. Of course it provokes ridicule if a German, of all people, says these things. That's fine. But I just had to say SOMETHING,” explained the German author, who published his letter under a pseudonym and did not want to give his real name because he feared a negative impact on his business relations.

Born in 1972, the man said he was frequently asked during trips abroad why his grandparents had not prevented Hitler's rise to power. “When I traveled outside Germany in the past, I've often been asked how the German people could have fallen for Hitler back in the '30s and '40s. 'How could your people NOT have known?' they often asked. I don't get that question much lately,'" he wrote in a follow-up letter published on Twitter Sunday.

 

[cstu]

He probably took this literally: http://img.timeinc.net/time/magazine/archive/covers/2006/1101061225_400.jpg

 

[cstu]

So apparently yesterday Trump talked about winning Michigan's Man of the Year award and then spoke in detail about the controversy he created with his acceptance speech (speaking on illegal immigration).   Nobody can seem to find any evidence of him winning and such an award or giving a speech.  He seems to have made it up out of thin air. 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-michigan-man-of-year_us_5820a413e4b0aac62485af81

 

[Jeremy]

He probably took this literally: Time Magazine Person of the Year

You can just picture him standing behind a podium in his house, pulling every chair he has into the room, filling them with his kids' old stuffed animals and giving a speech. 

 

[Bob Magaw]

So apparently yesterday Trump talked about winning Michigan's Man of the Year award and then spoke in detail about the controversy he created with his acceptance speech (speaking on illegal immigration).   Nobody can seem to find any evidence of him winning any such an award or giving a speech.  He seems to have made it up out of thin air. 

Trump has an uneasy, conflicted, tenuous at best relationship with reality and the truth (it could have, should have been true in his mind, so practically the same thing as if it actually happened - pedant media! ).

"Fugue State" Donald.  

 

[The General]

But how big are his hands really?

Like a small orange child. 

 

[Mr. Mojo]

What Germans really think about those Hitler-Trump comparisons

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/11/07/what-germans-really-think-about-those-hitler-trump-comparisons/

Trump’s not Hitler, he’s Mussolini: How GOP anti-intellectualism created a modern fascist movement in America


Fascism is about the most powerful epithet one can use -- but it fits with Donald Trump. A historian explains why


http://www.salon.com/2016/03/11/trumps_not_hitler_hes_mussolini_how_gop_anti_intellectualism_created_a_modern_fascist_movement_in_america/


An American Authoritarian


The Republican presidential candidate is not a Fascist, but his campaign bears notable similarities to the reign of Italian dictator Benito Mussolini.

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/08/american-authoritarianism-under-donald-trump/495263/

A Scholar of Fascism Sees a Lot That’s Familiar with Trump

http://www.newyorker.com/culture/culture-desk/a-scholar-of-fascism-sees-a-lot-thats-familiar-with-trump

I was in Europe last month and went to a tour of the Nazi rallying grounds in Nuremberg.

Our guide there quoted Hitler as saying "We are going to make Germany great again!".

Scary

 

[[icon]]

Over/Under in vegas for Trump Electoral Votes is 238. He's going to get destroyed tomorrow.


Hillary is -550 to win. (bet $550 to win 100)

 

[McGarnicle]

What Germans really think about those Hitler-Trump comparisons

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/11/07/what-germans-really-think-about-those-hitler-trump-comparisons/

Trump’s not Hitler, he’s Mussolini: How GOP anti-intellectualism created a modern fascist movement in America


Fascism is about the most powerful epithet one can use -- but it fits with Donald Trump. A historian explains why


http://www.salon.com/2016/03/11/trumps_not_hitler_hes_mussolini_how_gop_anti_intellectualism_created_a_modern_fascist_movement_in_america/


An American Authoritarian


The Republican presidential candidate is not a Fascist, but his campaign bears notable similarities to the reign of Italian dictator Benito Mussolini.

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/08/american-authoritarianism-under-donald-trump/495263/

A Scholar of Fascism Sees a Lot That’s Familiar with Trump

http://www.newyorker.com/culture/culture-desk/a-scholar-of-fascism-sees-a-lot-thats-familiar-with-trump

@T J is embarrassed for you, for buying into such hyperbole about Trump. Scholars schmolars. Probably a bunch of rigged gay liberal elitist liars.

 

[Henry Ford]

Over/Under in vegas for Trump Electoral Votes is 238. He's going to get destroyed tomorrow.


Hillary is -550 to win. (bet $550 to win 100)

NC, FL, and NV have all turned blue today on 538.

 

[[icon]]

It was a run... I hope Trumpians welcome their new menopausal overlord. 

 

 

[cstu]

Nigel Farage (UK's Brexit proponent) turned on Trump. 

 

[The General]

Nigel Farage (UK's Brexit proponent) turned on Trump. 

Nigel knows a loser.

 

[cstu]

It was a run... I hope Trumpians welcome their new menopausal overlord. 

 

Hide your guns, icon!!

 

[Yankee23Fan]

NC, FL, and NV have all turned blue today on 538.

I've never had him winning Florida or Nevada.  Still don't.  Like I said, I think she hits 340.

 

[apalmer]

I was in Europe last month and went to a tour of the Nazi rallying grounds in Nuremberg.

Our guide there quoted Hitler as saying "We are going to make Germany great again!".

Scary

I happen to be reading Winter of the World, Ken Follet's excellent historical fiction novel centered around WWII.  At one point during Hitler's rise, a Brit asks a German friend something along the lines of, "How can the German people actually support him?"  The answer: "They figure what have they got to lose?"

 

[[icon]]

Hide your guns, icon!!

What guns? 

 

[Henry Ford]

I've never had him winning Florida or Nevada.  Still don't.  Like I said, I think she hits 340.

Sure, but Silver has given Trump much more of a chance throughout this election than anyone else.  If his forecasts are even turning blue in the swing states, things don't look good for Trump.

 

[Jeremy]

Trump has an uneasy, conflicted, tenuous at best relationship with reality and the truth (it could have, should have been true in his mind, so practically the same thing as if it actually happened - pedant media! ).

"Fugue State" Donald.  

What's really funny is the contempt he has for his own supporters, which goes right over their heads.  He doesn't even think enough of them to be subtle with his lying.  Last week he talked about Obama berating a protester, when there was easy to find video proof that he did the opposite of that.  It's as if he's saying "you losers will believe any cockamamie story I dream up and then cheer like idiots when I call Hillary a liar". 

 

[Koya]

NC, FL, and NV have all turned blue today on 538.

Oh ####... as of an hour ago that was not the case.  I see the %'s are finally beginning to change as well.
 

I'm beginning to view these polls, especially a conservative (not politically) aggregator like 538, pretty much the same way I view weather forecasts. The forecast I watch is a still image in time of what we expect from the future.. but I find it's much more accurate to look at the trends.

If they are saying huge storm coming 15-18 inches, then big storm but not as bad, expect 8-12, I'll bet dollars to election day donuts that the next forecast or the event itself is going to trend about 5-8 inches.  Same if it's trending the other way.  

I've been wondering for 2-3 days now when 538 would begin to budge back up Clinton-wise.  Trump was gaining, gaining, gaining and then seemed to hit a lull, that told me it's likely to see some rebound, but at the least the bleeding was stopped.  Once there were some initial hints of renewed Clinton momentum, I just knew it would begin to nudge up... but just didnt budge.  Until quite literally, just now.

 

[Bob Magaw]

I was in Europe last month and went to a tour of the Nazi rallying grounds in Nuremberg.

Our guide there quoted Hitler as saying "We are going to make Germany great again!".

Scary

Donald Trump’s new favorite slogan was invented for Nazi sympathizers

'America First' was Charles Lindbergh's motto in the 1930s

https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2016/06/14/donald-trumps-new-favorite-slogan-has-a-nazi-friendly-history/

America First, for Charles Lindbergh and Donald Trump

http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/america-first-for-charles-lindbergh-and-donald-trump

* We collectively dodged a fascist bullet. Bigly.

 

[MattFancy]

What's really funny is the contempt he has for his own supporters, which goes right over their heads.  He doesn't even think enough of them to be subtle with his lying.  Last week he talked about Obama berating a protester, when there was easy to find video proof that he did the opposite of that.  It's as if he's saying "you losers will believe any cockamamie story I dream up and then cheer like idiots when I call Hillary a liar". 

And that's the worst part of it all. That people will believe anything as long as it supports their narrative. It didn't take much to find out if Trump was lying or not, but he didn't care because he knew people would eat it up.

 

[Koya]

Donald Trump’s new favorite slogan was invented for Nazi sympathizers

'America First' was Charles Lindbergh's motto in the 1930s

https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2016/06/14/donald-trumps-new-favorite-slogan-has-a-nazi-friendly-history/

America First, for Charles Lindbergh and Donald Trump

http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/america-first-for-charles-lindbergh-and-donald-trump

* We collectively dodged a fascist bullet. Bigly.

Some bad hombres are doing great work.

 

[Yankee23Fan]

Sure, but Silver has given Trump much more of a chance throughout this election than anyone else.  If his forecasts are even turning blue in the swing states, things don't look good for Trump.

Granted.  Part of my "predictions" for what they are worth is my own internal bias on some things.  I just can't envision the Clinton machine allowing Trump to beat them in Florida.  And both RCP and 538 I think have been a little to willing to throw states back and forth into toss-up areas.  Right now RCP has Georgia in the toss up camp.  Now granted, if any GOPer could lose Georgia it would be this clown, but I just don't buy it - and similar with Pennsylvania, just don't see Trump winning it at all.

I could be wrong though.  The one thing about this election that at least Silver has acknowledged is that all the old standard systems to measure this thing are completely twisted into a pretzel right now.  I guess there is a very real, albeit small, possibility that Trump could win all the toss up states but I wouldn't bet a nickel on it.

 

[apalmer]

And that's the worst part of it all. That people will believe anything as long as it supports their narrative. It didn't take much to find out if Trump was lying or not, but he didn't care because he knew people would eat it up.

Hey, we all know the lying media edited out the part where Obama screamed at the guy for 10 minutes before he put on his  "for the press show" so he'd look good.

 

[Jeremy]

Sure, but Silver has given Trump much more of a chance throughout this election than anyone else.  If his forecasts are even turning blue in the swing states, things don't look good for Trump.

Take nothing for granted though.  Vote! 

 

[Henry Ford]

Granted.  Part of my "predictions" for what they are worth is my own internal bias on some things.  I just can't envision the Clinton machine allowing Trump to beat them in Florida.  And both RCP and 538 I think have been a little to willing to throw states back and forth into toss-up areas.  Right now RCP has Georgia in the toss up camp.  Now granted, if any GOPer could lose Georgia it would be this clown, but I just don't buy it - and similar with Pennsylvania, just don't see Trump winning it at all.

I could be wrong though.  The one thing about this election that at least Silver has acknowledged is that all the old standard systems to measure this thing are completely twisted into a pretzel right now.  I guess there is a very real, albeit small, possibility that Trump could win all the toss up states but I wouldn't bet a nickel on it.

She's more likely to win AZ than GA.  And that's a longshot.

 

[CBusAlex]

Sure, but Silver has given Trump much more of a chance throughout this election than anyone else.  If his forecasts are even turning blue in the swing states, things don't look good for Trump.

His model also doesn't take into account early voting numbers, which have been pretty good for Clinton in those three states.

 

[cstu]

His model also doesn't take into account early voting numbers, which have been pretty good for Clinton in those three states.

It's also based on the national polls being off in favor of Trump.  Almost like he wants people to continue visiting his website often.

 

[Joe Summer]

Donald Trump’s new favorite slogan was invented for Nazi sympathizers

'America First' was Charles Lindbergh's motto in the 1930s

Little known fact: "America First" was co-founded by Gerald Ford in 1940 and was partially funded by John F. Kennedy. Lindbergh did not come on board until April 1941. But he made the most of his late arrival to the party, proclaiming in a speech that "The British and the Jewish races, for reasons which are not American, wish to involve us in the war. Their greatest danger to this country lies in their large ownership and influence in our motion pictures, our press, our radio, and our government."

 

[cstu]

Take nothing for granted though.  Vote! 

 

[CBusAlex]

It's also based on the national polls being off in favor of Trump.  Almost like he wants people to continue visiting his website often.

Are you talking about the polls-plus forecast using economic data (which would suggest a slight Republican advantage, in a normal election), or something else? \

ETA: His models have Clinton winning the popular vote by 3.3; RCP has her at +2.9.

 

[cstu]

Hey, we all know the lying media edited out the part where Obama screamed at the guy for 10 minutes before he put on his  "for the press show" so he'd look good.

I have the unedited footage which I'll release as soon as I receive $100,000 in bitcoins.

 

[cstu]

Oh ####... as of an hour ago that was not the case.  I see the %'s are finally beginning to change as well.
 

I'm beginning to view these polls, especially a conservative (not politically) aggregator like 538, pretty much the same way I view weather forecasts. The forecast I watch is a still image in time of what we expect from the future.. but I find it's much more accurate to look at the trends.

If they are saying huge storm coming 15-18 inches, then big storm but not as bad, expect 8-12, I'll bet dollars to election day donuts that the next forecast or the event itself is going to trend about 5-8 inches.  Same if it's trending the other way.  

I've been wondering for 2-3 days now when 538 would begin to budge back up Clinton-wise.  Trump was gaining, gaining, gaining and then seemed to hit a lull, that told me it's likely to see some rebound, but at the least the bleeding was stopped.  Once there were some initial hints of renewed Clinton momentum, I just knew it would begin to nudge up... but just didnt budge.  Until quite literally, just now.

538 is a hedging site IMO.  If someone has a lead then Silver is going to hedge that the overall polls are wrong.  Trump has a 35% chance of winning if the national polls are off 3% in his favor, meaning he would get all of the battleground states.  538 is like a worst case scenario for the front runner.

 

[Jeremy]

It's also based on the national polls being off in favor of Trump.  Almost like he wants people to continue visiting his website often.

Yeah, he said Hillary would be more in the 90-95% range if not for the possibility of "systematic polling error", which has happened in other elections.  If they're underrating his numbers by a few points in say PA, it would likely be the same in OH, MI, etc.  He acknowledges it could just as easily be the error going in the other direction and Hillary winning in an electoral landslide.  He also sites the higher than usual number of undecided voters.  Hopefully yesterday's news of the emails not containing anything incrimination will push the push the undecided more in her direction. 

 

[NREC34]

I've never had him winning Florida or Nevada.  Still don't.  Like I said, I think she hits 340.

My portfolio would really like for you to be right. 

 

[cstu]

Are you talking about the polls-plus forecast using economic data (which would suggest a slight Republican advantage, in a normal election), or something else? 

All of them.  Here's how he does it:


 

Major themes and findings

• Think probabilistically. Our probabilities are based on the historical accuracy of election polls since 1972. When we say a candidate has a 30 percent chance of winning despite being down in the polls, we’re not just covering our butts. Those estimates reflect the historical uncertainty in polling.
  
• State polls > national polls. All versions of our models gain more information from state polls than from national polls.
  
• Errors are correlated. But while the election is contested at the state level, the error is correlated from state to state. If a candidate beats his polls to win Ohio, there’s a good chance he’ll also do so in Pennsylvania.
  
• Be conservative early and aggressive late. Fluctuations in the polls in the summer are often statistical noise or short-term bounces. The model is trained to be conservative in reacting to them. Fluctuations late in the race are more meaningful, and the model will be more aggressive.
  

By saying that 'errors are correlated' what he's essentially saying is that if one state poll is off, then the national polls are off and the underdog will pull off a bunch of upsets to win.  I believe that exaggerates the chances of the underdog in his model.

 

[Bob Magaw]

What's really funny is the contempt he has for his own supporters, which goes right over their heads.  He doesn't even think enough of them to be subtle with his lying.  Last week he talked about Obama berating a protester, when there was easy to find video proof that he did the opposite of that.  It's as if he's saying "you losers will believe any cockamamie story I dream up and then cheer like idiots when I call Hillary a liar". 

I never understood the anti-false equivalency camp, but it isn't just that he lies something like 3 X more than normal, par for the course, non-beyond the pale politicians (like Clinton) - it's that he lies about stuff so easily checked.

Like in the first debate with Lester Holt, when he got fact checked on saying I was never for war in Iraq (which he doesn't say too much any more), THAT WE HAVE AUDIO EVIDENCE REFUTING THE CLAIM. Like three times, "No I wasn't, Yes you were, No I wasn't, Yes you were, No I wasn't, Yes you were." Even THEN, when caught red handed, he lied about the lie, obfuscated, twisted, distorted and generally dissembled.  

Than at other times he completely contravenes his own protests and denials, switching tactics with something like "But I wasn't a politician at the time!" Well nobody said he was. The issue is that he lied about his own publicly stated position, which makes it hypocritical to criticize others for holding his same position.

But he has flipped on almost everything, he used to like the Clinton's, defended Bill against his accusers, etc.

Some of the most irksome stuff is when he is so fast and loose that he just makes stuff up, like Hillary has fostered ISIS her entire adult life (like ISIS was around in the '60s???), or that it was her fault for allowing loopholes that enabled him to not pay income tax the past several decades. What does he think, when she was variously First Lady, Senator and Secretary of State, she dispensed with the separation of powers and unilaterally acted as a dictator to propose and enact 100% of the laws that Trump is citing/referencing? That just shows either a profound ignorance for how the US government works (or maybe reflecting and speaking to how he wants it to work, "Oh, Congress will listen to ME!!), or another case of just straight up lying - he is demonstrably ignorant enough I concede the former is a possibility, but either way it should be disqualifying.

Another problem is he has an instinct for saying shoot from the hip, zippy one liners coupled with his deeply ingrained counterpuncher tendency, which often leads to horrible comments like "He likes soldiers that don't get captured." about war hero McCain. Like SNL News joked a few weeks ago, about why the media would be nuts to be biased and favor Trump over Clinton, the latter is a Grandma who likes secrets, Trump is a human air horn that screams whatever thought comes into his head. GENERALLY, not a good quality for a head of state. Duterte from the Philippines is a good comp for Trump. His advocates probably like him for "telling it like it is", too (but those pesky extra-judicial killings).   

 

[cstu]

Yeah, he said Hillary would be more in the 90-95% range if not for the possibility of "systematic polling error", which has happened in other elections.  If they're underrating his numbers by a few points in say PA, it would likely be the same in OH, MI, etc.  He acknowledges it could just as easily be the error going in the other direction and Hillary winning in an electoral landslide.  He also sites the higher than usual number of undecided voters.  Hopefully yesterday's news of the emails not containing anything incrimination will push the push the undecided more in her direction. 

It sounds like I'm down on 538 but it's actually my favorite election site.  The key is not to pay attention to his odds of a candidate winning but the underlying data he uses.