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Official Donald Trump for President thread (2 Viewers)

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VandyMan said:
Yes and no.  Voters need to be smart and understand whether HRC has some chance or zero chance of winning their state's electoral votes.  Your argument is understandable in places where she has a chance.  In places where she has zero chance, informed voters will feel more free to support whatever 3rd party (or independent) candidate they actually like.
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I agree with this ... but I would add one thing:  given the unique awfulness of Trump, I think there's value in our country coming together to reject him as clearly as possible.  And a 45-40 final margin in  the popular vote with Johnson getting 10 and Stein getting 5 or something like that, simply won't have the same impact as a 50-40 final margin.  It probably should, since Trump's support is unchanged in those two hypotheticals, but it won't.  Unfortunately that's just the way it is.

Just something else to consider in the "should I vote third party" calculations.

 
I think a lot of people are underestimating Trump's ability to hurt Clinton in the debates. He will certainly get in his share of blows, and he'll make a dent in the poll numbers. Just like Romney did. And just like with Romney, the polls will eventually normalize.

Trump is going to need much, more more than strong performances in the debates.

 
That Pew poll is the 2nd poll this week showing a close race (LA Times/USC). RCP already has Clinton's advantage down to 6.0 without including the new Pew. She was at 7.9 ten days ago.

 
If I were advising Trump, I would tell him during the debate to NOT attack her on ethics, but on issues. He doesn't need to know a lot about the issues to be effective. He could say stuff like the following: 

"Yeah, I don't get why we got involved in Syria and Libya. I know, you've explained it, you talk a lot, you've got facts and figures, but I still don't get it. And I don't think the American people get it either, Hillary." 

"You say what we're doing against ISIS is working. But they keep attacking us. I don't call that working." 

"I don't understand how you're going to create job growth Hillary. My plan's pretty simple: cut corporate taxes, cut red tape, that creates job growth. I listen to you talk and talk and I have no idea what you're saying." 

"You've supported every trade deal in the past, your husband got NAFTA done, and now suddenly you're against TPP. I don't believe you. Nobody believes you." 

He needs to keep it simple, and use her long explanations against her. Present himself as the practical guy who can cut through the BS and get things done. 

 
timschochet said:
If I were advising Trump, I would tell him during the debate to NOT attack her on ethics, but on issues. He doesn't need to know a lot about the issues to be effective. He could say stuff like the following: 

"Yeah, I don't get why we got involved in Syria and Libya. I know, you've explained it, you talk a lot, you've got facts and figures, but I still don't get it. And I don't think the American people get it either, Hillary." 

"You say what we're doing against ISIS is working. But they keep attacking us. I don't call that working." 

"I don't understand how you're going to create job growth Hillary. My plan's pretty simple: cut corporate taxes, cut red tape, that creates job growth. I listen to you talk and talk and I have no idea what you're saying." 

"You've supported every trade deal in the past, your husband got NAFTA done, and now suddenly you're against TPP. I don't believe you. Nobody believes you." 

He needs to keep it simple, and use her long explanations against her. Present himself as the practical guy who can cut through the BS and get things done. 
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Come on dude. Do you really believe that enough people are dumb enough to buy into the simple unrealistic talking point solutions? That will also leave him open to having his own contradictory and utterly ridiculous words thrown right back in his face. I don't like Hillary, but I do realize that she's very smart, and will have worked her ### off to prepare for these debates. Trump is almost certainly just going to come in and wing it like he has for the entire campaign thus far, and he's going to look like a buffoon, also like he has for the entire campaign thus far.

 
Joe Summer said:
I think a lot of people are underestimating Trump's ability to hurt Clinton in the debates. He will certainly get in his share of blows, and he'll make a dent in the poll numbers. Just like Romney did. And just like with Romney, the polls will eventually normalize.

Trump is going to need much, more more than strong performances in the debates.
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Romney is a smart guy who knows policy and has a lifetime of government experience. Trump? Not so much on any of those things.

 
TobiasFunke said:
VandyMan said:
Yes and no.  Voters need to be smart and understand whether HRC has some chance or zero chance of winning their state's electoral votes.  Your argument is understandable in places where she has a chance.  In places where she has zero chance, informed voters will feel more free to support whatever 3rd party (or independent) candidate they actually like.
Click to expand...
I agree with this ... but I would add one thing:  given the unique awfulness of Trump, I think there's value in our country coming together to reject him as clearly as possible.  And a 45-40 final margin in  the popular vote with Johnson getting 10 and Stein getting 5 or something like that, simply won't have the same impact as a 50-40 final margin.  It probably should, since Trump's support is unchanged in those two hypotheticals, but it won't.  Unfortunately that's just the way it is.

Just something else to consider in the "should I vote third party" calculations.
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The Dems will get whatever margin they get.  The difference between a 5- or 10-point margin is HRC vs Bernie.  They made their choice.

 
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Coeur de Lion said:
Come on dude. Do you really believe that enough people are dumb enough to buy into the simple unrealistic talking point solutions? That will also leave him open to having his own contradictory and utterly ridiculous words thrown right back in his face. I don't like Hillary, but I do realize that she's very smart, and will have worked her ### off to prepare for these debates. Trump is almost certainly just going to come in and wing it like he has for the entire campaign thus far, and he's going to look like a buffoon, also like he has for the entire campaign thus far.
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I'm not saying it'll work; I'm saying it's his best shot. 

 
That Pew poll is the 2nd poll this week showing a close race (LA Times/USC). RCP already has Clinton's advantage down to 6.0 without including the new Pew. She was at 7.9 ten days ago.
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The USC poll is different from most other polls, because it's not randomized every week. They've been using the same list of 3000 people for every poll.

 
timschochet said:
If I were advising Trump, I would tell him during the debate to NOT attack her on ethics, but on issues. He doesn't need to know a lot about the issues to be effective. He could say stuff like the following: 

"Yeah, I don't get why we got involved in Syria and Libya. I know, you've explained it, you talk a lot, you've got facts and figures, but I still don't get it. And I don't think the American people get it either, Hillary." 

"You say what we're doing against ISIS is working. But they keep attacking us. I don't call that working." 

"I don't understand how you're going to create job growth Hillary. My plan's pretty simple: cut corporate taxes, cut red tape, that creates job growth. I listen to you talk and talk and I have no idea what you're saying." 

"You've supported every trade deal in the past, your husband got NAFTA done, and now suddenly you're against TPP. I don't believe you. Nobody believes you." 

He needs to keep it simple, and use her long explanations against her. Present himself as the practical guy who can cut through the BS and get things done. 
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Clinton response:  "I'm sorry you don't get it, Donald. I know these are complicated issues, and that details are important and that not everything can be reduced to a one-liner you can yell at a rally. I think the American people understand that, and they deserve a president who does too."

In other words, he's gonna have to do better than that.

 
VandyMan said:
The Dems will get whatever margin they get.  The difference between a 5- or 10-point margin is HRC vs Bernie.  They made their choice.
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I think that's an oversimplification, but also that wasn't my point.  I'm pointing out that I think there's value in a large final margin of defeat for Trump, assuming we defeat him. It tells the world that our country has strongly rejected Trump's brand of hatred and ignorance. It discourages better politicians from making similar appeals to our worst instincts and fears in the future.  A five point margin won't necessarily accomplish that as well as a ten point margin IMO, and I think people who understand how awful Trump is should consider that factor in addition to considering whether they live in a swing state or not.  That's all.

 
TobiasFunke said:
Clinton response:  "I'm sorry you don't get it, Donald. I know these are complicated issues, and that details are important and that not everything can be reduced to a one-liner you can yell at a rally. I think the American people understand that, and they deserve a president who does too."

In other words, he's gonna have to do better than that.
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This is Hillary. She yells so much at her speeches, I wonder if she has a hearing problem.

 
Soootch said:
"Look at these losers. I like people that don't lose their house in a flood, okay?"
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Laugh all you want but Bill Clinton did the same exact thing to Bush after Hurricane Andrew.  He went around feeling a lot of people's pain in Florida the next day. 

I wonder what the POTUS shot today?

 
perry147 said:
Just wait for it. Trump will say something totally crazy about the flood damage.
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"Folks, I've been to Louisiana, and I have to tell ya, there's no flooding there. No flooding. It's all a hoax. The crooked media want you to believe it's global warming. These pictures they're showing you, what are these pictures? I think I saw a nipple in that one. But no. The flooding pictures. On CNN. They're not real. It's all a Chinese guy with a hose. I talked to him. His name's Ching Chong. He said to me, 'Mr. Trump, I really admire you. I really and truly do. And I don't want to be out here with a hose, flooding people's yards, but the unemployment is so bad out here. So, so bad.' And that's why, when I'm president, we're gonna have jobs. Believe me."

 
Riversco said:
Not this democrat party.  The democrat party has shifted far to the left since 2008.  There are now large sections of the nation that will never vote for the democrats and their current platform.  The democrats are going to have to shift to the right quite a bit to take the House. 

Before Obama won in 2008, people who loved guns and hated the idea of public health care really didn't feel threatened by the democrat party.  They do now.  Those voters are lost and because of that, the House is permanently in the hands of the GOP.  To win the house in the next 4 years, the democrats would need to reverse course on some major issue like guns, or health care, or abortion, etc.  That won't happen.
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Hillary is far left?

Obama is far left?

 
Romney and Sanders are actual politicians. Of course they can score points in debates. 

Trump is ... Trump.

He'll score points with the lowest common denominators. Again, if Hillary just shows up and doesn't do anything stupid the debates should be a bloodbath. 

 
TobiasFunke said:
The humor and ridicule is a coping mechanism.  Fun one, too.  I'm terrified Clinton will find a way to #### this up, and I bet lots of other people are too.
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I'm one of those people too. Not because I like her, but because Trump is pretty much the antithesis of everything a governmental representative (and decent human being) should be.

 
Joe Summer said:
I think a lot of people are underestimating Trump's ability to hurt Clinton in the debates. He will certainly get in his share of blows, and he'll make a dent in the poll numbers. Just like Romney did. And just like with Romney, the polls will eventually normalize.

Trump is going to need much, more more than strong performances in the debates.
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Foreign policy is a big deal for many people and it will be his downfall.  I know people who liked Bernie and didn't think he was strong enough on foreign policy so they voted for Hillary - and Bernie has far more foreign policy knowledge than Trump.

 
sho nuff said:
What major gun control was pushed?

Healthcare i agree...though, they underreached after obstruction. 

Overreach on gay marriage? How so?  Again,that is the country shifting left, not the party.
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I don't see an overreach on gay marriage. Using the bathroom that fits your perception of your gender rather than your parts is an overeach though.

 
BeaverCleaver said:
What's your excuse in non-Trump threads?
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I'm a counterpuncher. I don't have a choice. If you look what they say about me, it's terrible. I mean, they say terrible things about me. BeaverCleaver- I mean, you talk about lightweights, this guy is a real lightweight. And he hit me - I don't even know this man - and he hit me because - and they're not hitting me on fact. They're hitting me in order to try to pick up something in their likes.

 
ericttspikes said:
I agree. I think Trump wins. A lot of voters want to burn everything down, and Trump is the man for that job. Just get all your $$$ out of your retirement funds by October. 
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If it looks like he might actually win this thing come late October, I'm selling all my paper holdings with both hands, switching into gold and guns.

 
Soootch said:
This is how Trump wins:  

1.  the left go into hysterics and say Trump will start WW3 if elected.

2.  the left call Trump a bigot.

3.  the left attack him every single time as having no credibility on every issue.

If they do those things, Trump wins.  I'm floored that the left cannot understand that.
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Trump wins if:

1. Hillary has a health crisis, especially a mental health crisis.

2. Something surfaces that actually proves Hillary is a criminal, and it can't be swept under the rug.

3. ISIS launches a major terrorist attack in the U.S.

4. We have a major social meltdown - something like multiple race riots in multiple cities.

5. There is a major financial crisis similar to what happened at the end of the Bush Presidency.

 
Gr00vus said:
Lot of overconfidence in this thread right now by the naysayers.
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Eh, Nate Silver is pretty good at predicting elections. And as bad as Hillary is personally, we can trust her to at least run an effective and professional campaign. Trump personally and his campaign are both complete  :tfp:  so I feel pretty confident about the results. I just don't see any freaking way Trump competes in any demographic outside of white men, and that's just not enough.

 
Coeur de Lion said:
Eh, Nate Silver is pretty good at predicting elections. And as bad as Hillary is personally, we can trust her to at least run an effective and professional campaign. Trump personally and his campaign are both complete  :tfp:  so I feel pretty confident about the results. I just don't see any freaking way Trump competes in any demographic outside of white men, and that's just not enough.
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Nate Silver's predictions are entirely based on other peoples' polls. He's good at analyzing data (most of the time). If the polls change, his "predictions" change. All he does is reiterate what people are feeling. If Trump can get himself together, get some cogent messages going, he could turn this thing around. Hillary's got a ton of flaws ripe for the plucking. The pollster he just promoted is a step in the right direction, the brietbart guy he just promoted is a step in the wrong direction. But you can't call this thing over yet.

 
VandyMan said:
Agree.  Comparatively speaking, the Democratic party in 2016 seems less left of the people than in 2009 D.

There are liberals in the Democratic party but the party itself certainly is not super liberal compared to what you'd see in other countries.  @Northern Voice explained this pretty well in his post about Canadian political parties.
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No, I think both have happened. The country has shifted to the left, but The Dems have moved to the right as well. You'll note several far left issues missing in this election from anti-corporation policies to environmental issues.Hillary is in the pocket of big business and she doesn't give two ####s about the environment.

 
Gr00vus said:
Nate Silver's predictions are entirely based on other peoples' polls. He's good at analyzing data (most of the time). If the polls change, his "predictions" change. All he does is reiterate what people are feeling. If Trump can get himself together, get some cogent messages going, he could turn this thing around. Hillary's got a ton of flaws ripe for the plucking. The pollster he just promoted is a step in the right direction, the brietbart guy he just promoted is a step in the wrong direction. But you can't call this thing over yet.
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Yeah, I won't be completely confident until it's actually over, but still, the demographics -- I mean seriously, can you see Trump winning significant numbers of women and minority voters under any circumstances? Because I can't.

 
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