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Official Donald Trump for President thread (4 Viewers)

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Despite all of this circus, despite all of the incredible, ridiculous things he's saying...this race is not over.

Latest Ohio polls show Trump up 5 points back in the lead. Latest North Carolina and Florida polls show him closing into near dead heats. Rasmussen shows Trump ahead nationally- I know that's discredited, but only a few days ago Rasmussen had him behind by 7 points.

I have no idea who these people are who weren't supporting Trump before and now are, but they're around. 538 just lowered Hillary's chances from a high of 86.5% to 85%. He's alive somehow.
Tim, it's over. 

 
Love it

It's not a partisan POV at all. I mean, Hillary's charity sure looks like an obvious middle-man for access. Trump's charity never paid for giant portraits or sports memorabilia still in his possession, and it's never been under investigation or the threat of investigation (before Donald made a well-timed campaign contribution). Let's ignore the fact that while a highly partisan congress has tried and failed multiple times to prove wrong-doing on her part, Donald was TWICE indicted. Let's ignore the thousand or so lawsuits and the dozens of reports of sexual aggression and racism.

The idea that Hillary Clinton is MORE corrupt than Donald Trump is beyond absurd. She might be, probably IS, corrupt, but she can't hold a candle to the Donald. If corruption was the hot-button topic for the right wing, they couldn't have picked a WORSE candidate to face her.
I guess I look at it differently. One has been in private industry his whole life.  The other has never held a real job and her entire existence has been attached to the teat of government, but she is filthy rich. 

 
I guess I look at it differently. One has been in private industry his whole life. The other has never held a real job and her entire existence has been attached to the teat of government, but she is filthy rich.
I guess I look at it differently. One has almost certainly raped a non-zero amount of woman and children during their tenure on this planet and the other hasn't.

 
I guess I look at it differently. One has been in private industry his whole life.  The other has never held a real job and her entire existence has been attached to the teat of government, but she is filthy rich. 
I'll play.

Name me the last former First Lady that didn't have money after her husband left office.

 
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I guess I look at it differently. One has been in private industry his whole life.  The other has never held a real job and her entire existence has been attached to the teat of government, but she is filthy rich. 
Sorry, I'm confused about which nomineee never held a real job in their entire existence.   Is it the person who became the first female partner at her law firm, or the one who inherited a cushy role at his father's real estate company?

 
Despite all of this circus, despite all of the incredible, ridiculous things he's saying...this race is not over. 

Latest Ohio polls show Trump up 5 points back in the lead. Latest North Carolina and Florida polls show him closing into near dead heats. Rasmussen shows Trump ahead nationally- I know that's discredited, but only a few days ago Rasmussen had him behind by 7 points. 

I have no idea who these people are who weren't supporting Trump before and now are, but they're around. 538 just lowered Hillary's chances from a high of 86.5% to 85%. He's alive somehow. 


IMO The only realistic path for a Trump win involves him pulling out all the stops to try and get 5-10% of her voters to not show up.  If he could somehow do that, possibly he would have a shot, as his followers are passionate and will show up at the voting booths in mass.  They also don't care about the things that most people see on CNN, because they believe CNN is conspiring against Trump.

The above is a recipe for Trump getting dirtier and dirtier over the next month as he tries to dump as much dirt as possible.  

But the problem is that Hillarys opponents have been looking for dirt for a long time.  I don't know if there's anything else.

With Trump it feels like we are just getting started.

 
Trump campaign calls Serbia story a hoax

The Donald Trump campaign is denying that the Republican nominee ever apologized to Serbia over bombing done during the Bill Clinton administration.

"Mr. Trump never gave an interview to the Serbian weekly magazine Nedeljnikas as falsely reported by the discredited Newsweek, nor was such an interview conducted through our Indiana State Director. This was a hoax and we look forward to receiving a formal retraction and apology from all involved," Trump's senior communications adviser Jason Miller said in a statement.

Earlier Thursday the Serbian weekly magazine Nedeljnik reported that Trump had apologized for the 1999 bombing campaign when Bill Clinton was president, a move that would have put him in line with Russian rhetoric used to rally Serbians against the United States.

USA TODAY had previously reported the story based off Nedelinik and Newsweek reporting.

 
Despite all of this circus, despite all of the incredible, ridiculous things he's saying...this race is not over. 

Latest Ohio polls show Trump up 5 points back in the lead. Latest North Carolina and Florida polls show him closing into near dead heats. Rasmussen shows Trump ahead nationally- I know that's discredited, but only a few days ago Rasmussen had him behind by 7 points. 

I have no idea who these people are who weren't supporting Trump before and now are, but they're around. 538 just lowered Hillary's chances from a high of 86.5% to 85%. He's alive somehow. 
:goodposting:   All you have to do is watch Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania and North Carolina.  That's it, Trump needs all four to win, otherwise he loses.  They were all toss ups before the chaos of this weekend.  Real Clear Politics still has all but Pennsylvania, which is now leaning Clinton, a toss up right now.  Like I've been saying I think he won the debate and it's helping his numbers.  Nobody listened and there goes 528 now that all the polling caught up to post debate numbers.  I suspect it gets even a little better the next couple of days.  Real clear politics should update their numbers tomorrow and you'll see the same thing.  You're fooling yourself if you are counting him out with all 4 of these states still in play.  

 
I guess I look at it differently. One has been in private industry his whole life.  The other has never held a real job and her entire existence has been attached to the teat of government, but she is filthy rich. 
Being SOS with duties, responsibilities and a staff she supervised would seem to qualify, but if you dismiss that because it was a presidential appointment OK, I guess...

However she did work from time to time as an attorney, which is a real job whether you think so or not. First as a staff attorney for the Children's Defense Fund in Cambridge, Massachusetts after she graduated from law school. In Arkansas she taught criminal law and served as director of a legal aid clinic and later had a stint with The Rose Law Firm in which she eventually became a full partner.

 
Trump campaign calls Serbia story a hoax

The Donald Trump campaign is denying that the Republican nominee ever apologized to Serbia over bombing done during the Bill Clinton administration.

"Mr. Trump never gave an interview to the Serbian weekly magazine Nedeljnikas as falsely reported by the discredited Newsweek, nor was such an interview conducted through our Indiana State Director. This was a hoax and we look forward to receiving a formal retraction and apology from all involved," Trump's senior communications adviser Jason Miller said in a statement.

Earlier Thursday the Serbian weekly magazine Nedeljnik reported that Trump had apologized for the 1999 bombing campaign when Bill Clinton was president, a move that would have put him in line with Russian rhetoric used to rally Serbians against the United States.

USA TODAY had previously reported the story based off Nedelinik and Newsweek reporting.
We did bomb a hospital, the Chinese embassy, a TV Station (as a strategic target), and a number of civilian targets....

 
:goodposting:   All you have to do is watch Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania and North Carolina.  That's it, Trump needs all four to win, otherwise he loses.  They were all toss ups before the chaos of this weekend.  Real Clear Politics still has all but Pennsylvania, which is now leaning Clinton, a toss up right now.  Like I've been saying I think he won the debate and it's helping his numbers.  Nobody listened and there goes 528 now that all the polling caught up to post debate numbers.  I suspect it gets even a little better the next couple of days.  Real clear politics should update their numbers tomorrow and you'll see the same thing.  You're fooling yourself if you are counting him out with all 4 of these states still in play.  
Pennsylvania really doesn't look like it's in play right now.

 
Yeah, to say Hillary has never had a real job is kind of stupid. One her "faults" as First Lady, both of the nation and of Arkansas, was that she had her own career and wasn't just a housewife.


Being SOS with duties, responsibilities and a staff she supervised would seem to qualify, but if you dismiss that because it was a presidential appointment OK, I guess...

However she did work from time to time as an attorney, which is a real job whether you think so or not. First as a staff attorney for the Children's Defense Fund in Cambridge, Massachusetts after she graduated from law school. In Arkansas she taught criminal law and served as director of a legal aid clinic and later had a stint with The Rose Law Firm in which she eventually became a full partner.
Writing a couple of best-selling books and getting paid many hundreds of thousands of dollars to speak at universities and investment banks really helps the 'ol pocketbook as well.

Also, you don't have to guess where the Clintons acquired their wealth--they've made decades of their tax returns public.

 
It's not. +8.9 is a lot better than "leaning Clinton".
In addition to that, you have things like AZ being a toss up, Clinton only down by about 5 in TX and GA, UT maybe going 3rd party or possibly for Clinton. It's not a Trump friendly map right now.

 
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Pennsylvania really doesn't look like it's in play right now.
Sure, some as high as +9.  But consider the following:

Donny surviving ##### leaks.  How is Hillary not up double digits everywhere with this deal?

Pulling out of Virginia, is he moving all those resources to Penn?

3.5 weeks left.  We've seen these poles swing 9 points in one week.

One debate left (mind you I think he won the second debate).

I know there are more ##### leaks, but, reports are coming out that all of Posada's contacts now got hacked.

Are the chances slim, hell yes he has to win all four of those states but, everyone that is calling it done and over with are being a little short sighted imo.  

 
Sure, some as high as +9.  But consider the following:

Donny surviving ##### leaks.  How is Hillary not up double digits everywhere with this deal?

Pulling out of Virginia, is he moving all those resources to Penn?

3.5 weeks left.  We've seen these poles swing 9 points in one week.

One debate left (mind you I think he won the second debate).

I know there are more ##### leaks, but, reports are coming out that all of Posada's contacts now got hacked.

Are the chances slim, hell yes he has to win all four of those states but, everyone that is calling it done and over with are being a little short sighted imo.  
It would be a historically unprecedented come back given where they are in the election cycle. I don't think he's surviving the leaks either - check out what's happening in UT.

 
everyone that is calling it done and over with are being a little short sighted imo.
No, it's over. It's like having your fantasy match-up locked up before MNF. Sure, Yahoo may be giving your opp a 15% shot down 20 with only his kicker left but you know you have that #### locked up. Now come Monday you get to sit back, watch the game unfold and mock the players.

Edit: If it isn't clear, in this analogy, Monday is the month of October.

 
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No, it's over. It's like having your fantasy match-up locked up before MNF. Sure, Yahoo may be giving your opp a 15% shot down 20 with only his kicker left but you know you have that #### locked up. Now come Monday you get to sit back, watch the game unfold and mock the players. 
lol.  That's a pretty good analogy, how many points did Vinatieri score last week?

 
It would be a historically unprecedented come back given where they are in the election cycle. I don't think he's surviving the leaks either - check out what's happening in UT.
Yeah, but 538 has Utah 85% Trump!! 

I agree with what you're saying, it's just the numbers should be a lot worse.

 
Clinton would have to faint again collapsing onto a bald eagle while her secret documents with the plans how she created ISIS fall out of her pocket. Then maybe Donald will pull close.

He's too far behind in states he has to win.

Amazing how close he has kept it though.

 
Yeah, but 538 has Utah 85% Trump!! 

I agree with what you're saying, it's just the numbers should be a lot worse.
Currently due to having to account for all the previous polls, that's true. But look at what's happened there over this week - it was 97.5% Trump as late as yesterday. Those results run completely contrary to your notion that things are getting better for Trump the last few days. At least in that state, they've gotten much worse.

 
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Also, if we're going to discuss 538 percentages - they've gone markedly in Clinton's direction in all those states you mentioned - OH, PA, FL, NC. Over the last 10 days or so the trend in all those has been ugly for Trump in terms of win probability. I mean, 538 has her ahead in Iowa now over the last 7 days. Iowa.

 
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Also, if we're going to discuss 538 percentages - they've gone markedly in Clinton's direction in all those states you mentioned - OH, PN, FL, NC. Over the last 10 days or so the trend in all those has been ugly for Trump in terms of win probability.
Not Ohio. That reversed again today. And Florida is tighter than it was 2-3 days ago. That's why so suggested that despite everythimg Trump may be on a bit of a rebound. 

 
The Trump Allegations: The Latest Updates



A number of women have stepped forward to claim that they were assaulted by the Republican nominee, who denies their accusations. Republican leaders, meanwhile, are struggling to respond.


http://www.theatlantic.com/liveblogs/2016/10/donald-trump-sexual-assault-allegations/503969/


Trump 'Stuck His Head Right Underneath [Women's] Skirts,' According to New Account


Two fresh bits of news about Donald Trump’s past behavior have come out tonight. One is a new account from a woman who says she witnessed the Republican nominee reaching under women’s skirts at a restaurant in the 1990s, as well a frankly creepy news clipping pulled from the Chicago Tribune archives.

Lisa Boyne, now a health-food entrepreneur, recounted to The Huffington Post her recollection of a dinner in the mid-1990s between her, Trump, and a half-dozen models.

According to Boyne, the group was seated at a semi-circular table, with the women in the middle and Trump and [modeling agent John] Casablancas flanking either end. The women couldn’t get out of their seats without one of the men getting up―which they refused to do. Instead, Boyne said, Trump insisted that the women walk across the table, allowing him to peer up their skirts while they did so. Trump “stuck his head right underneath their skirts,” Boyne said, and commented on whether they were wearing underwear and what their genitalia looked like.

Boyne said that Trump never made any such advance on her. “I’m not a model. He wasn’t interested in me,” she said. “He was more interested in my opinion of who I think he should sleep with. I remember that vividly.”

* A skeevnado, pervnami

 
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Not Ohio. That reversed again today. And Florida is tighter than it was 2-3 days ago. That's why so suggested that despite everythimg Trump may be on a bit of a rebound. 
Yeah he's gotten a bounce in some of those states the last day or so - but not UT for example. You got an R where UT and Iowa are in play - quibbling about whether the D has a 67% or 64% chance in OH isn't quite as notable. Definitely the immediacy of the video excerpt is tapering off, and he didn't completely derail at debate 2, so he's getting a dead cat bounce. But I have a hard time thinking its the beginning of a meaningful upward trend for the guy.

 
But look, don't take my word for it. Here is it from the horse's mouth:

At this point in the election cycle, the average error of polls for all elections is just 3.3 percentage points (much lower than the 4.7-point error we found for just after the conventions), and every candidate who’s been ahead in the popular vote in mid-October went on to win the election.

Simply put, there isn’t a precedent for a candidate coming back to win this late in the game after being behind by as much as Trump is now. That’s not to say Trump is dead in the water — polls are not perfectly predictive — but history doesn’t offer much hope for candidates in Trump’s position.

The nearest precedent available — if you squint and cover one eye — is probably 1992. The polling error that year, 8.5 percentage points, was larger than Trump’s current deficit in our polls-only forecast. In mid-October of 1992, Bill Clinton held a double-digit lead over George H.W. Bush. Clinton won, but only by about 6 points.

But the 1992 campaign isn’t a great model for the Trump campaign. First, Bush still lost. Second, 1992 featured a strong independent candidate in Ross Perot, which made polling the race more difficult. Gary Johnson’s support, in contrast, appears to be shrinking, which creates less volatility. And while Bush was hemorrhaging Republican support — as Trump is now— he still ended up losing more Republicans than Bill Clinton did Democrats on Election Day. That won’t work for Trump this year given that there are usually more self-identified Democrats than Republicans.

Trump’s supporters are better off pointing to two other races, 1980 and 1968, though neither of those are particularly encouraging either. In 1980, Ronald Reagan had a small lead over Jimmy Carter at this point in the campaign but ended up crushing Carter by nearly 10 percentage points. So that’s a decent precedent for Trump, right? Not really. The 1980 race shifted a great deal in the final weeks of the campaign, but even if 2016 underwent a similarly sized lurch towards Trump, he’d still lose. Not only that, but Reagan still had a major card to play in that election: the only debate between him and Carter. Reagan’s calm, collected performance there gave him a significant boost in the polls. This year, of course, two debates are already in the books, and Trump has lost both. Trump could obviously do better in the third debate, but it would likely have far less of an impact than the lone Carter-Reagan debate in 1980 did.

 
Sure, some as high as +9.  But consider the following:

Donny surviving ##### leaks.  How is Hillary not up double digits everywhere with this deal?

Pulling out of Virginia, is he moving all those resources to Penn?

3.5 weeks left.  We've seen these poles swing 9 points in one week.

One debate left (mind you I think he won the second debate).

I know there are more ##### leaks, but, reports are coming out that all of Posada's contacts now got hacked.

Are the chances slim, hell yes he has to win all four of those states but, everyone that is calling it done and over with are being a little short sighted imo.  
Unless something is leaked that Hillary grabbed some choir boys by the balls, this is over.

 
Exactly.

And thank you for sharing, @krista4. I had a conversation with my wife this morning about your post, which led to questions about her experiences and a very good talk. I'm going to have a chat with my daughter, too. Some of women's main issues are hard to see because of the reasons you gave above, but I'm working very hard to raise my daughter to be able to deal with men and those situations. She's brilliant, thoughtful, kind, opinionated and impossible to repress, and I'm giving her the tools to make sure that no one can squash or corrupt these qualities. You may have irritated Rocklacktion, but you inspired a good moment for me. Thanks.
I'm just catching up for the first time since the wee hours of this morning, because work.  I've appreciated the notes in response to what I've posted, because hey, who doesn't like a compliment - well, most people anyway - but mostly don't reply because I wanted to take myself out of the conversation, since most picked up that one of the large overall themes was exactly the opposite of that.  And despite some attempts to make it about me instead, I've enjoyed reading the conversation - posts I agree with and those I don't or usually somewhere in between - and seeing it discussed by a bunch of men. 

In direct conflict with what I've stated only a paragraph above, though, I wanted to say that your post just grabbed me (maybe I should choose a different word) and I am so happy to read it, in itself and as representative of what I've been hearing from people.  I see so many men around here, ones I know in real life and ones I only know through their posts, who are spending so much time thoughtfully figuring out how to raise girls to have the qualities you mention - including not avoiding difficult and open conversations just because they're difficult and open - that damn, it's just so heartening.   Thanks so much for this post, and not really for posting it by for doing it.

Finally, I should hasten to mention that our Monthly Meeting of the Sycophants is in just a week, but you still have time to submit your resume to join this growing organization.  We had YoY growth last year of 58%, though a reaudit the next day showed growth of only 49%, but then we had a spike during that late Saturday night reaudit up to 173%, so I guess you could say we aren't entirely sure, and to be brutally honest we've found that some files are mysteriously missing, but if you need more information please contact our Secretary - I don't remember his name but I don't have to, because if you just tag my name like you did above, I understand that he just comes running.  Resumes should be submitted to the Chair of the Board, which I think is Tanner, but it changes minute by minute, so maybe just have your girl call my girl for the info.  Thanks again.

 
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