Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
Totally depends on landing spots of course but I am big on RBs. I have Harris, Chase, Etienne, and Williams but Pitts has been climbing.
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (29 Viewers)
- Thread starter Gottabesweet
- Start date
rockaction
Footballguy
Sure thing. I have a big three of Etienne, Harris, Chase, and then a drop off. That's why I was wondering about the fourth.
I think the DLF and averages by Tick over in the rankings thread seem to show that tier break after three. Just my opinion, though, and everybody's mileage may vary.
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
I don't disagree with you but I do think if Williams ends up in somewhere like Pitts or Atlanta he is in that tier. He isn't as much of a lock though. I have 5 and 8 and feel a lot of those guys are all clumped together.
Boston
Footballguy
Give me AJB...1.4 is a nice start to acquire him but if that 2022 is late it's not enough for me.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I really don't think 1.04 is a place I want to take a QB. I could use another QB but I am ok there. I believe 1.06, 1.07 >> 1.04 plus Hunt. Having the 1.08 behind them is a nice place to be as well.
I expect 3 QBs to go which would make this close to 1.02 and Hunt for 1.04 and 1.05 in single QB format. Or 1.01 and Hunt for 1.03 and 1.04.
I expect 3 QBs to go which would make this close to 1.02 and Hunt for 1.04 and 1.05 in single QB format. Or 1.01 and Hunt for 1.03 and 1.04.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I have much better than those two but even if I stayed at 1.04 there is virtually no chance I would be taking a rookie QB there.
Yeah the fact that it was 6 *and* 7 was a big factor.
I probably do either of those two examples though.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Birdie048
Footballguy
I like it for the ROI. I was shopping AJB recently and that + 2.01 & Van Jefferson was what I was asking for.
So good gauge on his value but maybe I was asking too much?
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I don't think it was enough. Brown is worth more than the 1.4, and a late 2022 1st. In your deal, I don't think Van Jefferson is anything and the 2.01 added in isn't enough. I believe I would have to have 2 top 8 picks in this draft and a future 1st to trade Brown. It isn't on me to make the offer, because I'm not looking to trade Brown. Why would I? It's on those looking to acquire Brown to make the offer and it better be a great one.
Last edited by a moderator:
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
The deal above was too light. But there's no way you're getting this considering the influx of young WR talent and that Brown plays for a low wattage passing team.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
This is a good move really. I don't think I would consider this unless I got 1.2 to gaurantee I get Chase or the top RB on the bored or that 22 pick would have to be early most likely. With 22 projected to be a weaker class, that might not even be enough.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Yeah exactly. There can be a big difference between what you can get and what you are willing to take. If it is a guy that I'm not really trying to move then I don't necessarily care if my price is ludicrous to them. That is their problem to deal with.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
TVT 0 N S T A
Footballguy
The thing I am running into with trying to trade for top 3 draft picks is people value Chase's potential more than AJ Brown's production - those people in the top 4 seem less likely to deal than the 5-10 crowd in my 10 team league. Trading for picks almost always needs to be done a year or 2 in advance, I am finding.Jonesin For Some Football said:
Twenty-Four Eighty-Four
Footballguy
That is what we call Rookie Fever, even though we know many of these guys will not live up to the potential we thought they would.
rockaction
Footballguy
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
I have seen that in my league too to an extent. People get rookie crazy. I don't think I'd trade Brown but definitely wouldn't do it unless I was for sure getting one of the top 2 prospects.
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
I don't really like this trade at all. We don't know where guys will get drafted or who will be on the board at 15 and 24. I hate giving up 1sts for unknowns. I could see a world where this works out but feel you will lose on this type of trade way more often than you win.
If this was entirely an arbitrage play, it could work out very well. If the person giving up a late 2022 1st thinks there will be a market for 2.03 when it is OTC, he could conceivably get a better 2022 1st and more.
TE premium I have a tier 1 with 5 players, so I don’t like this particular move. You are simply staying within my tier 1 and shipping off a solid dart throw at 1.10 . If I made this deal I would definitely be the one receiving the 1.05 and 1.10 and be thrilled about it. Everyone has varying tier breaks though and ultimately that is why these deals get done.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Yea I think the most common tier break in TE premium is after 1.04 (Chase, Harris, ETN, Pitts) so this deal makes sense in that regard.
Who is the 5th you have in that tier? Williams?
Snorkelson
Footballguy
I agree with you in theory, if you did this every year. However, if you’re inclined to grab extra picks in this draft, this is the time of year to do it. It’s a deep draft this year. During the draft that 2.03 might cost your 1st (without the extra pick) if theres a player that falls.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
With a deep draft and trying to rebuild I’d want more picks personally. That’s a lot to move from 1.05 to 1.02.
Call me crazy but I love this move in PPR TE premium. In this format I have Chase and Pitts in an upper tier. 1.03 and beyond is distant.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
He needs RBs as much as I do in this league. I can see him taking Harris at 1.1 and either Chase or Pitts with the 1.2. I have the 1.3 and it doesn't matter which one of Chase or Pitts I get at 1.3. If he does something crazy and takes Chase and Pitts, I'll be very happy with Harris at 1.3 considering the only RB I have is Taylor. Logic says he might take Harris and ETN considering he has ZERO RBs, but IMO Pitts or Chase will be too tempting. 1.3 is the sweet spot and anything top 8 is great this year.
Last edited by a moderator:
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Not a bad trade if the 2022 isn't late. At 1.11 you're probably looking at one of the two Moore's, Gainwell, or possibly Marshall with the recent news. Otherwise I think Marshall was a shoe-in for 1.9 or 1.10 in start 1qb leagues. In 2022 if it's mid-1st or better you're probably looking at one of Olave, Bell, Pickens, or Burks. I'm not a fan of Olave, but a lot of people have him as the WR1. Pickens had the injury, so he could fall to your range. I don't think Bell or Burks makes it out of the top 5, along with Breece Hall and Isiah Spiller.
Last edited by a moderator:
Here is the factor, is what are the other owners doing in this case.barackdhouse said:
I did a similar deal but without the nice advantage of Huntbfor early pick. I gave up 1.3, 1.7 and 2.12 in 14 team SF PPR TE premiumIDP to guy who owned 1.1 and 1.2 for 1.5, 1.6, 2.1. The thought was I get Chase or Pitts and one of Fields or Wilson over Chase or Pitts and Mac Jones or Wilson/Fields and Waddle/Smith. Liked that top 6 tier break. Of course thought 1.4 was QB for sure in Trey Lance as guy has loved. But he traded 1.4 to drop to 1.7. So now I will get 2 QB or better yet, a QB and trade other pick for a ransom with value of QB. 7 teams in league only one useful QB(One with Prescott/Newton, other with Carr/Dalton, another with Wentz,/Jimmy G) and one has zero but first 4 picks in draft plus the 12, so he will take care of. The other 3 have Mahomes/Jackson/Mayfield as starters.
I like the trade for you but in my league, I see a clear 6 and feel 7 is a big drop. But if you have mocked it out and are happy with Smith, Waddle, Jones or top RB than the trade is great. We only have to start 1 RB and thus less premium put on. While you probably get RB here with greater premium. In my league, I see first RB going 9 or 10. But knowing your teammates and mocking out before and after is always fun. I don’t play in league but 16 team SF in similar fashion as my 14 teamer but they draft before draft. . and I know the owners. Guy holds 1.3, 1,4, 1.6 and 1.8 and know he is huge Bama fan. So I would have mocked him taking 4 Bama players and tried to get to 1.5, 1.7, 1.9, 1.10 knowing my guys would drop. He did disappoint with taking Pitts at 1.3 but took Smith over Chase, Jones over Wilson or Lance and tooK. Harris Bingo. Value was had later that will not happen in my 14 teamer.
So how do you mock before and after.
Boston
Footballguy
I get the dice roll on this turning into a better pick but the Edwards part just doesn't do much for me...would have liked to see a better prospect obtained to do this.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I agree with you about Edwards. I was just looking at it from a 1.11 vs mid or better 2022 pick.
Birdie048
Footballguy
Thanks for the feedback, but I actually think B Edwards pre-injury was a Top 4 WR draft canadidate.... I think Ruggs is more slot/intermed route while Edwards is outside and offers more upside in LV offense. John Brown (31 yo) is nice but more of a Locker Room mentor to the young WR.
Personally, I have B Edwards rated closer to Lockett / JuJu range (WR3 material in 25-32 range).
And for my rebuild, I have AJ Brown & M Pittman as my primary WR hoping Edwards makes it as my WR3
Last edited by a moderator:
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
This could be considered pricey but I think the top 2 are definitely better than the next 2-3. I don't play TE premium but if you wanted a true stud at the top of the draft, this wasn't that big of a price to pay to get there IMO. I like the move personally especially with all of the other picks you have. Good move.
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
It definitely could work in a vacuum and you aren't wrong but not a move I'd be comfortable with. I also don't think this draft is as deep as people think. The late 1sts and 2nd rounds don't impress me as much as it does others it seems.
Boston
Footballguy
I'm not a big fan of Edwards (or Gruden WRs right now) but if you feel that way about him than the deal makes sense for you.
Last edited by a moderator:
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I expected it to go either:
A - QB/QB/Pitts
B - QB/QB/Chase
C - QB/QB/RB
D - QB/QB/QB
And I would have gone RB at 1.04 most likely, and 1.08 would be someone like Bateman, Marshall, Waddle, Smith, with an outside shot that J Williams falls there. This particular team of mine has Kelce, Fant and Higbee (who I love). There are more than a few of these I'm likely going to be taking Pitts but I don't think I want to here, if I had stayed at 1.04. I'd also field offers at that point, and the guy that ended up buying Hunt and giving me 1.06 and 1.07, I have to be honest about it - I think this could fall in the category of "he changes his mind once he thinks about it more" and the offer might not ever have been that good. This happens *all* the time. People get cold feet and withdraw. So could I have got more if I had waited until OTC? Theoretically yes but I doubt this guy pays as much as this first offer that I took.
Now that I've made the trade and I sit at 1.06, 1.07 and 1.08 this is what I see, same as A-D above but the guy that moved up with me is likely targeting Chase/Pitts/QB in my opinion. If he does then I'm going to get at least one of the big 3 RBs if the second one peels off at 1.05. If it is a scenario other than C then I get two of the top RBs and my favorite WR right after at 1.08.
And if I am reading this totally wrong and all 3 top RBs are gone before it gets to me at 1.06, that means either Chase or Pitts or the 2nd QB have fallen. And I'm am more than ok with that. My hunch is I just earned an extra top 3 rookie RB for the price of Hunt. If I'm wrong I'm getting Chase or Pitts or rookie QB2 for Hunt. Or a ransom OTC.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
For me, Edwards would be an afterthought in that trade. The only thing that should matter is whether you would rather have the 1.11 or a mid-2nd (possibly better).
Boston
Footballguy
Not me...since there is a risk that this pick is not any better I would want something with a little meat so I am getting something that can potentially help me this year as well.
Dez
Footballguy
Unfortunately I wasn't the one to get that deal. A lot of people are draft crazy and make terrible deals to get picks. Maybe that 1.06 turns out to be gold but he sure didn't get value on that deal.
rockaction
Footballguy
I think it does, as we've established, depend how you feel about Edwards.
I traded him for the 2.11 and Jeff Wilson this year, essentially. I wanted out of Gruden's offense that centers around Waller and nobody before his value tanks. They still might draft a receiver even with Ruggs and Edwards already here, from what I'm hearing. Staying away.
