robb
Footballguy
I would go with Pittman and the pick, big time. You won’t regret a 2023 1.04-1.07 at all! And, you get Pittman to boot.
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****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (37 Viewers)
- Thread starter Gottabesweet
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
I agree on the Pittman/1st side but I'd say 1.03 for Pittman is highly overvaluing him. We don't know who will be Indy's QB and there is talk that they will be in the market for another WR too. I'm not sure I'd pay anything but a late 1st for him personally.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I am of the opinion that the 2022 1.03 is roughly equivalent to a 2023 1.10-12
There are only 2 “locks” this draft. 1.03 might even be bargain for Pittman, regardless of who the QB in Indy is.
Kudos to the shrewd manager who stole Pittman along with a 2023 1st. Absolutely crushed their side of the deal.
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
I don't fault you for that stance. I agree that 23 will be much better than 22 but I do still think the top 3-5 picks this year are going to be good. I do agree they won this deal but I do think 1.03 is more valuable than you do as well which makes this closer. Because if 1.03 is a stud, Pittman is just average with a new QB & WR in town, and that 23 pick falls at 1.10-1.12, then this could definitely go the other way.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
To me it’s Hall & Wilson (possibly Burks instead). Landing spot will have a lot to do with it. Those are the 2 players I feel would also be top 8 picks in the 2023 draft, were they going a year later.
I’m not saying everyone else sucks - there will undoubtedly be movement after the combine & still more especially after the draft. And there will be players 3-12 that outperform expectations. I just have them ranked lower than most of the 2023 1st round, and some lower than a few in the 2023 2nd.
We all have our opinions. That’s mine. You’re certainly entitled to form your own.
Regardless, this is a wholly lopsided deal.
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
I think it is too early to make this determination. I do like Spiller too and Walker could be good in the right spot. Wilson and Burks could definitely be studs.
The combine and the draft will go a long way to determine some of this stuff. You are definitely entitled to your opinion though. I just think the 2022 draft class hate has gone a touch too far now.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
All definitely within the range of possible outcomes.
Not gonna say it’s impossible for your scenario to play out.
Personally, I’m quite high on Pittman for his size/talent/age. He has the tools to be a very good NFL WR, and INDY should figure out their QB situation at some point. Maybe others will disagree, but that seems like a fair value for 1.03.
And to get a coveted 2023 1st to boot? Woof - what a steal.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
You’re repeating what I said about it being early & that the draft will determine values. So obviously I agree with that.
But we’re discussing a trade now, in the context of what we know right now.
and even without the 2023 1st I think Pittman is fair for the 2022 1.03, regardless of who it is and where they go.
So I see that deal imbalanced by a 2023 1st. That was a toss-in.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
Totally agree its a win. Also, I will say....it would be more defendable after the combine/draft when you know who you would be looking at drafting at 1.03. Too much unknown right now to overpay like this. But if you were stacked at WR and wanted to get one of those top 2-3 RBs for sure, then I can see this but like I said....this shouldn't have even been considered until May.
You are right it is definitely a win for the Pittman side. I could just see a world where it isn't. All your points are valid though.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Also “steal” but they may as well have thrown in a nice ribeye.
I agree about waiting until the combine, and more importantly, after the draft.
right off the bat, one should have an idea of those top 3 players destinations to determine more about their value.
But like I said, I have it as relatively even based on Pittman alone.
Being stacked at WR doesn’t necessarily mean one should overpay like that. I see that suggestion in this topic often. I don’t know why being position-rich means giving stuff away. i still try to maximize value even if I’m stacked somewhere.
Anyway, who I see as a lock in 2022, va who I see a risky was more of an aside. Once Pittman’s name was typed, anything beyond that feels like an overpay to me.
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
I get that. You seem like a Pittman believer. I believe Pittman is worth a later pick, even this year as I'd rather have the swing at a real stud and I don't think he will ever be that. I could see a 23 3rd or maybe even a 2nd but a 1st does seem like too much for sure. I do think that all 3 RBs (Hall/Spiller/Walker) and Wilson/Burks are going to end up being really good and possible studs so I think I'd take any of them over Pittman. Hate giving up future 1sts though so I get your feelings there too.Also “steal” but they may as well have thrown in a nice ribeye.
I agree about waiting until the combine, and more importantly, after the draft.
right off the bat, one should have an idea of those top 3 players destinations to determine more about their value.
But like I said, I have it as relatively even based on Pittman alone.
Being stacked at WR doesn’t necessarily mean one should overpay like that. I see that suggestion in this topic often. I don’t know why being position-rich means giving stuff away. i still try to maximize value even if I’m stacked somewhere.
Anyway, who I see as a lock in 2022, va who I see a risky was more of an aside. Once Pittman’s name was typed, anything beyond that feels like an overpay to me.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I think the risk is on the side getting pick 3.
Pittman probably scores more than whoever would have been the pick at 3, and a future 1st can always be moved at the deadline for an upgrade.
Or, heading into next years draft I think it's very very likely Pittman and whatever that pick is will be worth more than whoever is taken at pick 3 for that team this year.
Pittman probably scores more than whoever would have been the pick at 3, and a future 1st can always be moved at the deadline for an upgrade.
Or, heading into next years draft I think it's very very likely Pittman and whatever that pick is will be worth more than whoever is taken at pick 3 for that team this year.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Agree with all of this. Easily favors the Pittman/2023 1st side.
for giggles I ran it through my calc and it’s a ~30% overpay in SF.
In 1-QB leagues it’s ~26%
Opinions may vary on those values of course, but any way you slice it, it’s a substantial tilt in favor of Pittman/2023 mid-1st.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
of the RBs, I think their landing spot will determine that outcome, and I’m not completely sold On Walker.
Of the 2 WR, again; situationally dependent, I like Pittman’s build/speed combo more, and the fact that he’s established as an NFL WR and likely cemented as the WR1 for his team.
There’s still plenty of risk with Burks/Walker (and every other rookie)
In short, they might bust. Pittman may never be Randy Moss, but he’s certainly an established player at this point by comparison.
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Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
All true. Do you see Pittman as a Fantasy WR1 though? I don't and that is why I like the possible upside. I wouldn't pay this for 1.03 though.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I do eventually, yes. At the least I see an established talent with a size/speed/hands combo that makes him a legitimate NFL WR.
anyone 1-12 of the 2022 draft could be a bust at this point. There are varying likelihoods of this happening, but it’s definitely a point for Pittman.
i get what you’re saying, and don’t discount the possibility that Walker or Burks could end up better than Pittman. They could also end up much worse than Pittman.
But Pittman is the proverbial bird in the hand, which bolsters his value, IMO.
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robb
Footballguy
Agreed. Pittman’s flashed but with no other healthy competition on the roster. I like him and drafted him when he came out, but I expect 4 to 5 first round WR’s this year. I won’t like all of them better than Pittman but probably 2~3 of them at least plus a RB or two. After that it probably gets iffy… but as someone said, this draft class being poor is being way overblown. I do expect Indy to add a major piece at WR and probably be stuck with Wentz or worse at QB for at least another season or two.
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
FFPC 1QB
I gave Irv Smith
I got 2.12, 3.08
Same league not involved:
Team B gave 2023 2nd & 3rd (both early from team not listed here)
Team C gave Amon-Ra
Team B gave Pittman, 4th
Team D gave 1.07, 2023 2nd (D)
Team B gave Amon-Ra, 2023 2nd (D), 2023 5th
Team D gave 1.05, 1.10
Team B gave 1.10
Team A gave Gabriel Davis
ok now I'm cross eyed
I gave Irv Smith
I got 2.12, 3.08
Same league not involved:
Team B gave 2023 2nd & 3rd (both early from team not listed here)
Team C gave Amon-Ra
Team B gave Pittman, 4th
Team D gave 1.07, 2023 2nd (D)
Team B gave Amon-Ra, 2023 2nd (D), 2023 5th
Team D gave 1.05, 1.10
Team B gave 1.10
Team A gave Gabriel Davis
ok now I'm cross eyed
bostonfred
Footballguy
Birdie048
Footballguy
So Team B flipped an early 2023 2nd & 3rd for the 1.05 & 1.10 this year?
Nice ROI, but how did Teams C & D not work something out themselves? LOL
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
I'd take the picks easily here. I'm a Niner fan and don't trust their RBs as a different one will probably be the man this year. Josh Allen is the RB1 in Buffalo and I'm not high on Meyers. I think getting 2 1sts for this package is a steal personally.
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
Not a bad return on Irv Smith being injured. I'm looking to sell him but can't get anything for him in my league because of the injury so have to wait until he is back on the field.
I'd give a 2nd and 3rd for St. Brown here as his upside is enough for that.
I have said I don't think Pittman is worth a mid 1st personally and a 23 2nd for a 4th swap on top seems like a slight overpay but not a ton. If you are a Pittman believer this isn't a bad move really.
Team D got stroked giving up 2 1sts for ASB/23 2nd/23 5th. I like ASB but this was almost robbery to me.
We talked after Gabe Davis' big game in the playoffs that he would be overpaid for and this is proof of that. I don't think he is worth a 1st round pick, even in this draft.
wlwiles
Footballguy
So total net from B's perspective:
Gave: '22 4th, '23 2nd, '23 3rd, '23 5th, and Pittman
Received: 1.05, 1.07, and Gabe Davis
It's ok, you can tell us...you're Team B aren't you? Just in the two middle trades, he sold ARSB and Pittman for 3 total firsts, that feels like an extra first for free.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
In this case I take the players.
Singletary is only 24, and may be a little underrated.
Mitchell should he assumed to be the starting RB for the 49ers for 2022.
Meyers is eh, nothing great at this point, but I wouldn’t deal Singletary & Mitchell for 1.07 & 1.12 this year. I don’t see anyone in that range that replaces what I’d be giving up.
Of course those picks could be dealt to get something better, but then so could that package of RBs.
And especially with 2022 picks.
Gimme the players and I don’t think it’s particularly close in value.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
nice haul for Irv.
So Team B gave up their 2022 2nd, 3rd, 4th, Pittman & recently acquired 2023 2nd, & recently acquired ARSB, and as a result ended up with 2022 1.05, 1.07 & Gave Davis?
That's probably a decent set of moves altogether if I’m reading that right. Depends who they get at 5 & 7, but something tells me they may not be done.
Blick
Footballguy
To add a little context...
The team receiving the picks is in the second year of a complete rebuild. They will not be competing this season. MAYBE they can make a run in 2023 if their young players (Smith, Bateman, St. Brown, Lance, Etienne) make tremendous strides.
The team receiving the players is in the middle of the pack, in need of RBs.
I'm still trying to decide which side of this I like better. In a vacuum, I agree with you that I'd rather have the players. Singletary, in particular, I feel is tremendously undervalued. When looking at the rebuild, I don't think the player fit and the picks give a lot of flexibility. Especially if the 1.12 can be moved to next season.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Ran it through the trade calc. In a 1 QB league, calc has it favoring the players side by 33% (~300 to ~200 points in value).
That seems about right to me.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I know
Two 2nds technically but yeah some times people get flipped for a big gain. There was a 2 week gap in between but dang. Happened to me last offseason where I gave Brady for a 3rd in SF after shopping him *everywhere* for over a year. Then soon as I ship him the other guy finds a partner to give a 1st plus. Can't explain it.
I am not Team B. I wouldn't hide that I'd beat my chest about it. I was the one that moved Irv Smith for some scrap picks is all.
Also for the record that is the first example that *I* have seen of someone giving a 1st for Gabriel Davis.
G
Guest
Guest
Im Team B. What barack is leaving out is that I'm also the one that gave him Burrow for a 2nd a week ago and rightfully got torched on here for it (literally the first day I read this forum, that was rough, lol). But there's context for everything:
First off, the league dynamics...a lot of old schoolers, a lot of stingy owners that never offer fair deals, and a lot of owners who are not active, so for the people who like working on deals like me, sometimes it's easy to give up too much value just to get a deal done (good dynasty management? no. trying to enjoy myself more? yes). Also, took over this orphan team a few years ago..it's a bad team. Slowly been rebuilding but not close to contending yet so youth and picks still valued higher. BUT, not really thrilled with my core pieces so far, besides a few guys.
On the Burrow deal, got swept up in trades in other leagues and was in '23 accumulation mode. Also have Lance and am a Niners fan, plan for all of last year was to start him in 22. Recently acquired Burrow straight for Fant - got sick of Fant after two years - but got buyers remorse and decided to flip him and based on the dynamics of that league, did not think I would ever sniff a 1st. Regretted it as soon as I did it, but was like...eh, whatever. Looked at it as Fant for a 23 2nd which was about right value wise in my mind and w/ a 0% chance of competing and Lance on the roster, just wanted the 23. (wont lie though, let impatience get the better of me)
On this second flurry of deals, felt like I was in a rare opportunity to be engaged w/ someone not super active who approached me, so negotiations were sort of rapid fire and a lot of back and forth. Ultimately was happy w/ the return. I didn't want to deal ARSB, but I couldnt pass up the value. I like Pittman, but never felt like he was going to live up to his current valuation and when he's your second best asset...felt like it was time to scrap the current build and basically start over in a way (now if the Colts land Rodgers or Wilson somehow...this one will sting) .
Deep rebuild, felt like the Gabe lotto ticket was worth it for the 1.10 in this class, although I didn't love it, I was fine with when looked at in total w/ the 1sts I got for the other guys. Plus for a team this far away, felt like the upside lotto ticket was better than a Bell or Olave at 10.
Anyway- that's Team B's story. Back to read only.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
FFPC SF
I gave 2023 2nd
I got H Henry, T Marshall
I really don't want any more shares of Marshall but this deal is for a new TE2 on my squad to back up Waller. @menobrownI feel quite a bit more bullish on Henry since last year or so whenever it was we talked about him at length. I'm largely avoiding spending future draft capital but this seemed like too good of a deal. And I can roster Marshall here and see if anything happens, though I am on board with the faceplanter narrative and want to move him everywhere I can.
I gave 2023 2nd
I got H Henry, T Marshall
I really don't want any more shares of Marshall but this deal is for a new TE2 on my squad to back up Waller. @menobrownI feel quite a bit more bullish on Henry since last year or so whenever it was we talked about him at length. I'm largely avoiding spending future draft capital but this seemed like too good of a deal. And I can roster Marshall here and see if anything happens, though I am on board with the faceplanter narrative and want to move him everywhere I can.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
FFPC standard
Devon Singletary, michael thomas, future 3rd
For
Pick 1.09
Devon Singletary, michael thomas, future 3rd
For
Pick 1.09
Cjw_55106
Footballguy
Birdie048
Footballguy
I can understand it if you are a Pitt or Dallas fan going 1 side or the other but for the rest of us, I see it as Freiermuth having a longer future with more uncertainty while Schultz has a potentially better situation if ACooper departs.
Cjw_55106
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
It's like giving someone a right boot in exchange for a left boot.
I-
(ETA, there is less uncertainty at QB in Dallas, but there's also another good TE. Nope - still can't decide.)
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
FFPC SF
Team A gave Tua, 1.11
Team B gave Chubb, 2023 2nd
Team A gave Tua, 1.11
Team B gave Chubb, 2023 2nd
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
FFPC SF not involved
Team A gave D Watson, 1.09, 2023 1st x2 (IDK middle of the road)
Team B gave Dak, Swift, 2023 2nd
Team A gave D Watson, 1.09, 2023 1st x2 (IDK middle of the road)
Team B gave Dak, Swift, 2023 2nd
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Man….it’s probably fair. I kinda like the picks, but Dak/Swift is a nice pair of players in SF.
I’ll take Dak/Sqift side. Bird in the hand
