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****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (30 Viewers)
- Thread starter Gottabesweet
- Start date
I'll take a year or two of Forte.
That second trade I'd take the side getting Murray and than try everything I can to deal him before the draft which based on deals I've seen in leagues I'm in I'd have to feel I have a good shot of improving that 2.5 pick enough to give up Baldwin.
bostonfred
Footballguy
id lean to the pick side, thomas loses value with no QB in denver at the moment and forte is older, with the 1.03 you can get a WR in the hopes it replaces the production thomas would have within the next few years and then the 2017 first will be able to replace forte
I'll take the upside on Johnson over Yeldon. Crabtree/Diggs both seem low enough value to not swing the trade much either way.
spider321
Footballguy
spider321
Footballguy
Pwingles
Footballguy
Aunt Jemima
Footballguy
FFPC
Fleener, 3.04
for
1.09, Gates, 5.03
Fleener, 3.04
for
1.09, Gates, 5.03
I'd have liked Fleener ok if he landed in a few spots but he probably landed in the one spot I'd give up 1.9 and Gates for him right now. So Fleener.
One More Rep
Footballguy
DropKick
Footballguy
I'm not hung up on the YPC. Still talking about a rookie. Plenty of room to develop and grow as he adjusts to the NFL. For the record, Matt Forte averaged 3.9 YPC in his rookie season and 3.6 in his sophomore season. He worked out OK.
Langford may or may not succeed but I like him much more than the 2.2 pick in a 2016 rookie draft.
And, yes, I would have scored on that play.
TheBottomLine
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Not involved in either trade, 1.5 PPR for TEs:
Team A gets : Delanie Walker, 1.08, 3.04, 2017 1st (likely very early)
Team B gets : Jamaal Charles, Latavius Murray, Justin Hardy, 2.09, 2017 3rd
Team X gets : Brandon Marshall
Team Y gets : Zach Miller, 2017 2nd (mid)
Team A gets : Delanie Walker, 1.08, 3.04, 2017 1st (likely very early)
Team B gets : Jamaal Charles, Latavius Murray, Justin Hardy, 2.09, 2017 3rd
Team X gets : Brandon Marshall
Team Y gets : Zach Miller, 2017 2nd (mid)
bostonfred
Footballguy
Walker and the picks by a small amount. Let me see the NFL draft so I know if Murray gets screwed and I might change my mind.
Marshall by an oof and two what were you thinkings.
Hawkeye Hellraiser
Footballguy
I would take the 1.9 side, though I think Fleener will end up getting enough helium that he will go higher than that come rookie draft day.Aunt Jemima said:
Pwingles
Footballguy
Walker side, but mainly because of the 2 1sts, not really anything to do with TE premium
Marshall
bostonfred
Footballguy
I like all of those things. Would totally depend on my team make up. I think i prefer Henry over lacy or a 2017 first so I might have been tempted to keep 1.5 until it was on the clock and then decide. Worst case at 1.5 you get one of Elliott/Henry/Doctson/Coleman/Treadwell or whoever is hot at that point.
Cjw_55106
Footballguy
One More Rep
Footballguy
Run It Up
Footballguy
I don't think this is close, the better player at a proportionally scarce position and two first round picks - Team A by a lot.
One More Rep
Footballguy
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
I just made this trade. I'm team A. 16 team non-IDP
Team A gave up:
Year 2016 Draft Pick 1.01
Team B gave up:
Year 2017 Round 1 Draft Pick
Plus $30
His 2017 pick should be a top 5 which now gives me 4 picks in the 1st round of the 2017 draft. On paper, 3/4 of my 2017 1st round picks appear to be top 5 picks which I will use to draft a RB or two. Here are my relevant starters:
Aaron Rodgers
RB?
Odell Beckham
Antonio Brown
Jordy Nelson
Larry Fitzgerald
Gary Barnidge
Team A gave up:
Year 2016 Draft Pick 1.01
Team B gave up:
Year 2017 Round 1 Draft Pick
Plus $30
His 2017 pick should be a top 5 which now gives me 4 picks in the 1st round of the 2017 draft. On paper, 3/4 of my 2017 1st round picks appear to be top 5 picks which I will use to draft a RB or two. Here are my relevant starters:
Aaron Rodgers
RB?
Odell Beckham
Antonio Brown
Jordy Nelson
Larry Fitzgerald
Gary Barnidge
Last edited by a moderator:
Aunt Jemima
Footballguy
not sure I would've done this, you know you have Zeke and anything can happen with that pick, if it is 1.1 next year you probably won but if your team is competitive now you kind of gave up on this year, Jordy and Fitz won't be as relevant next year. Since you've made that move I think I'd make sure (maybe wait until in season) that you move those two before next year.
Personally I like 2016 1.1 here
Snorkelson
Footballguy
I don't get this trade for you. Why not take Elliot at 1 and have a rb? I get stockpiling picks, but is $30 in cap space that valuable? Why not get a 3rd or something? Top5 next year could be 5, I don't get trading the top pick this year for a chance to pick later next year, possibly several spots.
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
My logic: stockpile as many premium 2017 picks as possible. I have four 1st round picks next year and there's a very good chance that three of those are all top 5. I like next year's RB class much more. I'm not thrilled with Zeke at 1.01. By the way, I still hold the 1.12 and 1.13 in this year's draft which I will use on RB most likely. Also, we only need to start 1 RB and I've found that I can usually find someone in FA to fill that void. So I'm stacked at all positions save 1 in a 16 team dynasty with two 1st round picks thos year and 4 more next year!!
kutta
Footballguy
What do you not like about Zeke? There is talk of him going to a really good landing spot (Dallas, Philly, NYG, Indy) and he will most likely be a three-down back. I am not excited about much in this year's draft, but Zeke looks to me like he could be a real stud.
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
I don't like the Ohio State RBs, they always seem to underachieve in the NFL due to their perennially awesome O-line. Now, Zeke could be the exception, but I'm not comfortable using a 1.01 and find out he's not the exception. Also, there's some news out there (posted in another SP thread) taken from combine interviews of his teammates that Zeke parties a lot - that his house was a big party house. In fact, one player (Zeke's former roommate) who was kicked off the team, names Zeke specifically as the bad influence... that Zeke was/is wild. Of course all of this is rumor at this point but during the combine interview process, I believe multiple teammates specifically labeled Zeke as a partier (not just alcohol but MDMA and other drugs) and 'different'. There are also rumors that Zeke didn't interview well but I'm not sure that weighs very heavily for me.
Of course all of this could mean nothing in reality but the things I listed above are concerns I have. Clearly, these rumors didn't affect his performance while at OSU but those are 2 red flags for him. At 1.01, I'm not willing to take that chance.
Finally, I like the 2017 RB class much better anyways and I have Rodgers, OBJ and Brown for the next 7 seasons, Jordy for 3 and Fitz just 1. But the core of my team has 7 year contracts. With my six 1st round picks (2016 & 2017 combined), I can replace Fitz and Jordy and still draft stud RBs next year.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
What happens if those "should be top 5" turns into 4, 7, and 8? Seems risky, but sounds like you have a plan so I'm not going to say you're wrong.
jeaton6
Footballguy
Is the $30, bid bucks or cap space? How much is your cap if so? Honestly I think you got smoked on this trade (again assuming its bid bucks). The 1.1 >>>> future 1st. Regardless if you think it's top 5 (a lot can happen). The 1.1 should be able to easily pull in a later 1st this year and a future 1st (bare minimum).
bostonfred
Footballguy
I'm interested in this. Indy should be a good place. Dallas would be great for Elliott. The Giants seem neutral. Philly seems like a mess. They already have Matthews, they changed coaches, the passing game is kind of an unknown, is that really a good or even neutral spot? People are shying away from Hyde in sf, I think Philly could be worse.
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
$30 is play money for bidding on FAs, trading etc... To put into perspective, I paid $66 to acquire Antonio Brown in RFA. Aaron Rodgers was $60. First round picks typically go for $30.
Taking risks is good. I like to take risks. This one was calculated as Im trying to increase my chances of acquiring the 1.01 next year. I don't look at individual trades as wins/losses. I look at the aggregate and I've been working this plan since last year. I've been targeting the 2017 draft class for awhile and on the surface it's looking great. And like I said, I still have two 1st round picks this year along with two 2nds. Love the discussion though! Good stuff!!
Taking risks is good. I like to take risks. This one was calculated as Im trying to increase my chances of acquiring the 1.01 next year. I don't look at individual trades as wins/losses. I look at the aggregate and I've been working this plan since last year. I've been targeting the 2017 draft class for awhile and on the surface it's looking great. And like I said, I still have two 1st round picks this year along with two 2nds. Love the discussion though! Good stuff!!
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Impossible to decide without any context on how important those $30 are.
Offhand, seem horrible for you
kutta
Footballguy
Well, you could be right. I've just heard Roseman talking about how you have to spend an early pick on a RB if you want a good one. He seems to be hinting that thay make take Zeke and that he would be used as a three down back. http://www.phillyvoice.com/howie-roseman-hints-that-ezekiel-elliott-is-an-option-for-the-eagles-at-pick-no-8/
ghostguy123
Footballguy
You could have just ended up with the #1 next year with the picks you already have. If you dont get it, trade for it.
You just gave up automatic value for huge maybe.
It may or may not work out for you, just as long as you realize it was a bad "value" trade for you
bostonfred
Footballguy
Fair enough. I guess anyone spending a top ten pick on a rb should probably have plans on using them on all three downs, but if they get a guy like booker I may take it a bit more seriously.
So you don't like OSU backs because their line is usually very good, and he likes to party? Sounds like you're trying to convince yourself of a bad trade. Which this trade undoubtedly is. Zeke is likely a top 15 pick at rb and has a legit 3 down skillset, and is a position of desperate need. Yes desperate is appropriate given your solid but aging (expiring) contending roster. The EV of the 2017 first you received is probably 1.3, or worse since you traded a probable top 12 rb in a start 1rb league which will improve their roster significantly. Do you think the 3rd best rb in 2017 will be drafted higher than Zeke will this year? No chance.
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
I appreciate your input but I strongly disagree about it being a bad value. Actually, I understand value better than anyone in the league, which is why I'm so stacked AND I have more current and future assets than anyone else in the league. My understanding of value is what I believe to be one of my strongest traits in dynasty. Sure, I traded away a 1.01 but in return I basically just got two 1st round picks in a draft (2017) that I perceive has better elite prospects - one of those picks has a good chance of being the 1.01. Either way I just increased my chances of securing the 1.01 and/or a top 5 pick.
I think some owners miss out on beneficial trades because they don't want to short change themselves on current perceived value. Right now a current 1st is more valuable than a future first. Right now. But dynasty is not a short-term game. The only thing that matters is winning the overall game. There are a lot of outcomes that will 'win' that trade for me and there's only 1 outcome where I 'lose' the trade. Probability is completely in my favor and that's all you can play to be long-run successful in FF. You must take all information available and bet on the scenarios that probability favors you. I did that in this case, so therefore, it was great trade value (for now). Whether I actually win or not won't be decided for a few years.
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
LOL, here we go. Why would I need to convince myself of a 'bad' trade that I willingly accepted a few hours ago?
I understand the value of assets in this league. I'm supremely confident that I maximized probability to secure a profit in this league. The only way I lose is IF Zeke/Henry (I would have taken whoever went first in the NFL draft) become perennial FF stars AND I don't secure a future perennial FF star myself (next year) to match what I missed from Zeke/Henry. Both of those things have to happen for me to lose. There is a chance both happen, but it's not likely. I haven't even mentioned the extra $30 which I can use to purchase a FA/RFA, use as trade asset, buy another 1st round pick... That's the icing on the cake and my insurance in case I don't secure a top 5 next season.
The bottom line is that I just increased my odds of hitting next season AND I have insurance on that bet in the form of $30. I specifically and successfully targeted 2017 1st round picks from, imo, the three worst teams in my league. I had a predatory strategy that worked to perfection.
kutta
Footballguy
I think just about everyone would agree that next year's draft is stronger than this year's, and if you can parlay picks this year into next year, that's a good deal. But, I also think everyone agrees that Zeke is the best player in this draft and the only "sure thing" available. So trading him away for a probably later pick next year appears to be a loss of value. If you had traded the 1.02 instead of 1.01, I don't think people would think it was nearly as bad.
How do you reconcile the fact that Zeke (idk why you brought up Henry) will 90%+ be taken ahead of the 3rd best rb next year (which is what I'm estimating to be the EV of this trade)?
