I posted this earlier and elsewhere, but Hill's per target numbers are elite and better than any WR in the league. That's over the last 2 years, not just last season.Why? Hill just went from a highly accurate quarterback who had a great season to a second year guy and his team just paid wr1 money to someone else. He's about the opposite of safe in my eyes - a high risk, high reward guy - and that's not even taking the off field stuff into account. I think he's highly overrated right now.
That said, I like Williams a lot, and I think hill has a ton of trade value to people who feel like you do, so before I rejected that trade I'd be shopping hill around for guys I like better. If I could move Thomas before brees retires, get Williams cheaply, and still get a receiver I value highly, it would be really tempting.
Hill is a YAC guy. You don't need a special QB, you need a special OC - and I think Reid will continue to find ways to get Hill the ball in space (although I don't expect him to repeat last year's pace). Also, they may have paid WR1 money, but they didn't get a WR1. I think Sammy is possibly just not smart enough to play WR in the NFL.Why? Hill just went from a highly accurate quarterback who had a great season to a second year guy and his team just paid wr1 money to someone else. He's about the opposite of safe in my eyes - a high risk, high reward guy - and that's not even taking the off field stuff into account. I think he's highly overrated right now.
That said, I like Williams a lot, and I think hill has a ton of trade value to people who feel like you do, so before I rejected that trade I'd be shopping hill around for guys I like better. If I could move Thomas before brees retires, get Williams cheaply, and still get a receiver I value highly, it would be really tempting.
12 ppr
mike thomas
tyreek hill, jamaal williams
I like Michael Thomas here, but it’s close. I have Hill a tier below Thomas and a hopeful RB like that wouldn’t be enough for me to grab a guy like Hill. I think it might make sense if you need RB help though and it’s not a giant downgrade.Anyone have a take on this? I got the hill side but labored over the decision.
Totally disagree. If I were the qb I guarantee he'd struggle with yac because hill is not a big 50/50 ball guy, and I'm not good enough to throw it to a spot where he can get yac and hit him in stride.Hill is a YAC guy. You don't need a special QB, you need a special OC - and I think Reid will continue to find ways to get Hill the ball in space (although I don't expect him to repeat last year's pace).
You just responded to me calling him a risk/reward guy by making a very bullish case of why you're willing to accept the risk and why you feel he has a very high potential reward without refuting any of the risk I mentioned. That's literally the definition of a risk/ reward guy.I posted this earlier and elsewhere, but Hill's per target numbers are elite and better than any WR in the league. That's over the last 2 years, not just last season.
He may seem risky but his floor, IMO, is incredibly high for the type of WR he is based on past production. And his ceiling is WR1. Overall.
Bubble screens and drag routes don't require Brady level precision. But again, I'm not even bullish on Hill. I just liked the trade because Williams was attached to it and I'm equally not bullish about Thomas (at their respective high prices). Like you, I'd have been eyeing other trade candidates than Hill if I was unloading Thomas before he is no longer paired with Brees.Totally disagree. If I were the qb I guarantee he'd struggle with yac because hill is not a big 50/50 ball guy, and I'm not good enough to throw it to a spot where he can get yac and hit him in stride.
You know who was good at that? Captain Checkdown himself, Alex Smith. You know who else is really good at it? Tom Brady, who was called just a game manager for years. You know who sucked at it? Jeff George. You know who might be good at it? Mahomes. We don't know that yet though. Different qbs have different skills.
I have no idea what percentage of hill's production was because he's good at yac and what percentage was because Smith was good at leading him, but I do know Smith had one of the better completion percentages in the league the last couple years.
Mixon side12 team, tiered PPR (RB-0.5, WR-1)
Gave:, Mixon, DJax,RMatthews
Got: Adams
Wow. Julio = 1.03. Getting 2019 1st and JuJu for free is insanity.12 Team PPR
Julio
for
JuJu, 1.03, 2019 first
I think I’m quite a bit higher on collins than you are, but my rationale for pulling the trigger came down to blue-chipper staying power along the lines of what you mentioned. I watched a lot of collins’s carries last year and came away very impressed with his vision and elusiveness, but life comes at “out of nowhere” late-round backs fast sometimes and Henry seemed more likely to hold value in the event of a down year or injury.This is one of those deals you look at years from now and wonder how did this guy get Derrick Henry and then you see the names and you're like, who?
Henry is an elite talent. He might not get rb1 numbers this year but he's the kind of guy you'll still be playing at age 29. Collins is the guy who might start this year in Baltimore. Burton has never even been a starter. It's very possible that neither of them even has one fantasy relevant season left.
Julio is going 2-3 rounds before the 3rd rookie in most startups.Wow. Julio = 1.03. Getting 2019 1st and JuJu for free is insanity.
No. Just... no.12 Team PPR TE premium
Team A got Sammy Watkins, Gronk
Team B got Mike Evans, 2019 1st
startups are different as all you need is one person to love him. I haven't seen Julio bring in much more than 1.03 in trades.Julio is going 2-3 rounds before the 3rd rookie in most startups.
12 Team PPR TE premium
Team A got Sammy Watkins, Gronk
Team B got Mike Evans, 2019 1st
Just looking at the trade in a vacuum, it seems like an obvious win for the team getting Evans but it really depends on the TE Premium. In one league I play in TEs gets 0.15 points/yard and 1.5 points/reception versus 0.1 and 1 for WRs. In that league Gronk was the #10 scorer (despite missing 2 games) and averaged 24.3 points/game. Evans was the #72 scorer (#18 WR) (missed 1 game) and average 13.6 points/game. Watkins was #117 scorer (#38 WR) averaging 9.8 points by the way. Evans should be better next year and he's still only 24 - hard to believe! However, having Gronk or Kelce (who finished #4 in scoring) puts you in a distinct advantage in such a league. In leagues that just reward TE receptions and not yards, Gronk would have finished #25 instead, but still well-ahead of Evans.Team A got the short end.
I really don't see it as an overpay. You're in win-now mode and the 2.07, even if you hit, will not help you this year as much as Edelman can. You have the chance of getting a solid WR2 with not a lot of risk - he may end up outperforming JuJu..24 man rosters, 0.5 PPR Start 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1TE, 1 flex (RB, WR, or TE), 1 DEF, 1 K
Gave: 2.07, 4.03, 2019 3rd round pick (hopefully late)
Received: Julian Edelman, 4.10
The other team is rebuilding with several younger WR2/WR3 types (really just needs two good RBs to be a solid playoff team though) while I am hopefully a contender.
Possibly overpaid slightly but the price on other veteran wide receivers was more then I wanted to pay. My starters at RB, WR, and flex are projected to be Alvin Kamara, Leonard Fournette, Dalvin Cook, Mike Evans, Davante Adams, and JuJu Smith-Schuster. Should any of them get hurt or be on a bye week I was nervous about going into battle with Mike Williams, Corey Coleman, or Dede Westbrook as my flex/WR3 (my backup RB options are better at least redraft ADP wise). Edleman essentially amounts to being my primary backup for six starter spots with the upside to potentially overtake someone. I would have had to give up both Williams and the 1.12 to get a guy like Doug Baldwin or T.Y. Hilton (reasonable but an overpay to be my WR3/WR4).
The guy in my league offered me Julio he wanted picks 4, 7, Sanders, Rudolph (1.5 TE PPR).startups are different as all you need is one person to love him. I haven't seen Julio bring in much more than 1.03 in trades.
All leagues are different though. In some you couldn't even get 1.05'ish for him, while in others obv you can bring in a ton based on the trade posted.
Yeah you're probably right. I feel like Edelman is probably worth around the 2.03 or 2.04 in this year's draft so those other pieces wouldn't have really helped me anyways. I always enjoy the late 3rd round/early 4th round dart throw, more so then those picks are really worth.I really don't see it as an overpay. You're in win-now mode and the 2.07, even if you hit, will not help you this year as much as Edelman can. You have the chance of getting a solid WR2 with not a lot of risk - he may end up outperforming JuJu..
I’d pay it if I needed to ensure the title but I don’t value Sanders and Rudolph that much so it’s sacrificing the 7, which if meant the title I would consider it.The guy in my league offered me Julio he wanted picks 4, 7, Sanders, Rudolph (1.5 TE PPR).
Don't forget pick 4.I’d pay it if I needed to ensure the title but I don’t value Sanders and Rudolph that much so it’s sacrificing the 7, which if meant the title I would consider it.
I like Chubb more than Mixon, and I do like Mixon.12 team PPR, start 1Q, 2R, 3W, 1T, 2F, 1K, 1DST
Gave RB Mixon and TE Everett
Got RB Chubb and WR Cobb
To be clear I would deal Julio for the 4/7, but I also don’t think it’s a crazy offer.Don't forget pick 4.
Don't see it that way at all..
Frankly seeing Mixon’s value in trades in the terms of rookie picks he garnered is the prime reason why I’m comfortable drafting Chubb and waiting a year if that is what it takes. At worst, he’s Mixon, at best he’s...?
Agree, 4/7 for Julio sounds about right and I'd have probably moved him for that in most leagues I own him but the JuJu trade was pretty bad.To be clear I would deal Julio for the 4/7, but I also don’t think it’s a crazy offer.
Now the deal with JuJu, 1.3 is absolutely ridiculous.
Oops...Edelman just tested positive for PEDs - suspended 4 games.runner06 said:Yeah you're probably right. I feel like Edelman is probably worth around the 2.03 or 2.04 in this year's draft so those other pieces wouldn't have really helped me anyways. I always enjoy the late 3rd round/early 4th round dart throw, more so then those picks are really worth.
If the owner of the 1.1 turned down 1.4/1.7/1.8, I can't see them accepting 1.3/1.4 as I think the first package would be more enticing if I was in a rebuild. That said, I love your team and getting 2 top rookies not named Saquan Barkley is not the worse thing in the world.12 Team PPR - QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/WR
Team A trades 1.7/1.8
Team B trades 1.3/3.10
I’m team A. Normally I wouldn’t make this deal but I’m rolling the dice to land 1.1 ( offered 1.4/1.7/1.8 for 1.1 & was denied & was countered 1.1 for David Johnson which I said no )
My core is Russell Wilson/David Johnson/Joe Mixon/Julio Jones/Keenan Allen/Brandin Cooks/Tyreek Hill/Stefon Diggs with picks 1.3/1.4/2.3/3.3/3.8/3.10
hopefully I can package 1.3/1.4/player for 1.1 and if not I sit on those picks/players.
you what?!?was countered 1.1 for David Johnson which I said no
He wanted a pick also. 1.4 - didn’t realize I left that off. Straight up I would’ve done it but wasn’t parting with the 4th pick and DJ. I countered back but the offers expired as he didn’t even decline them. Was active in the window as well but oh well. See if 1.3/1.4/player will pry 1.1 away.you what?!?
You will regret that. A deep, deep regret.
You'll be forfeiting points as soon as a few months from now, no later than three years from now, and in 4-5 years it'll be a landslide.
Chubb since the 1st looks likely to be late.FFPC (1.5 PPR for TE) -
GAVE Josh Gordon, 2019 1st
GOT Nick Chubb
The only draft I didn’t land Chubb, but now own him across leagues. Deal leaves the team thin in draft capital and WRs, but fully expecting the future 1st to be 1.11-1.12 with Cam - Gurley, Zeke, Fournette, Chubb - Hill, JuJu - Kelce, Gronk as the core.
I believe this deal will allow us next offseason to deal Zeke or Fournette for a WR1+ heading in to 2019, if we want, while still likely taking home another title this season. Or maybe we keep all four to not risk not winning a title, I don’t mind being RB/TE heavy in FFPC.
At risk of I'd take Gordon straight up over Chubb. I'd take a random 2019 first over Chubb as well but not one projected to be late.FFPC (1.5 PPR for TE) -
GAVE Josh Gordon, 2019 1st
GOT Nick Chubb
The only draft I didn’t land Chubb, but now own him across leagues. Deal leaves the team thin in draft capital and WRs, but fully expecting the future 1st to be 1.11-1.12 with Cam - Gurley, Zeke, Fournette, Chubb - Hill, JuJu - Kelce, Gronk as the core.
I believe this deal will allow us next offseason to deal Zeke or Fournette for a WR1+ heading in to 2019, if we want, while still likely taking home another title this season. Or maybe we keep all four to not risk not winning a title, I don’t mind being RB/TE heavy in FFPC.
DJ and 1.04 wouldn’t be enough for me to deal 1.01. But I am not the biggest DJ fan.He wanted a pick also. 1.4 - didn’t realize I left that off. Straight up I would’ve done it but wasn’t parting with the 4th pick and DJ. I countered back but the offers expired as he didn’t even decline them. Was active in the window as well but oh well. See if 1.3/1.4/player will pry 1.1 away.
Menobrown - you have expanded very nicely into not only having a wonderful way with words, but also having a way with "dynamic emojis". Keep rolling out the preseason therapy!At risk of I'd take Gordon straight up over Chubb. I'd take a random 2019 first over Chubb as well but not one projected to be late.
I'd take Gordon over Chubb by himself but I'm pretty bullish on Gordon. I think he is THE most talented WR in the league and he's been in garbage situations for years. He gets this year to prove he's back to his old on field self, and then either stays on a long term deal in Cleveland after he realizes Mayfield is really good, or he goes somewhere else in free agency to make his value explode.JPeso said:FFPC (1.5 PPR for TE) -
GAVE Josh Gordon, 2019 1st
GOT Nick Chubb
The only draft I didn’t land Chubb, but now own him across leagues. Deal leaves the team thin in draft capital and WRs, but fully expecting the future 1st to be 1.11-1.12 with Cam - Gurley, Zeke, Fournette, Chubb - Hill, JuJu - Kelce, Gronk as the core.
I believe this deal will allow us next offseason to deal Zeke or Fournette for a WR1+ heading in to 2019, if we want, while still likely taking home another title this season. Or maybe we keep all four to not risk not winning a title, I don’t mind being RB/TE heavy in FFPC.
What we will never disagree on is Gordon’s talent or upside. I died a little inside when I traded him, it’s been a long ride and luckily still have a few shares elsewhere.I'd take Gordon over Chubb by himself but I'm pretty bullish on Gordon. I think he is THE most talented WR in the league and he's been in garbage situations for years. He gets this year to prove he's back to his old on field self, and then either stays on a long term deal in Cleveland after he realizes Mayfield is really good, or he goes somewhere else in free agency to make his value explode.
Coming off the year the two guys you gave up had this makes sense. Odell got hurt but the other two took step backs last year. I just feel in both of the cases of the two players you gave up that we'll look back at 2017 as just down years for them. I'd have held onto them myself on this deal.12 team PPR
Gave: AJG, Cooper
Got: OBJ, Coutee
Adams for me.2nd straight day with a big trade. 12 Team PPR
Team A trades Julio Jones/3.10
Team B trades Davante Adams/2.2
I am buying Green and Cooper but, would happily deal them for OBJ12 team PPR
Gave: AJG, Cooper
Got: OBJ, Coutee
Julio2nd straight day with a big trade. 12 Team PPR
Team A trades Julio Jones/3.10
Team B trades Davante Adams/2.2
Henry and Johnson pretty handilyFFPC
Engram NYG TE
for
Henry LAC TE
K-Johnson Det RB
I could see both sides, but I'll take Engram easily unless it's a total rebuild with no shot this year.FFPC
Engram NYG TE
for
Henry LAC TE
K-Johnson Det RB