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****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (30 Viewers)
- Thread starter Gottabesweet
- Start date
rockaction
Footballguy
joey
Footballguy
I own Javonte in 2 leagues and actually thought a similar thing. (Not that he’s overrated, but that’s a good haul and fair enough, especially if that 1st ends up in the top half of the draft).
rockaction
Footballguy
Yeah, it's not so much that Javonte is overvalued, as my post might have led one to believe, it's that the other side got quite a bit of value there. Even if the first drops to mid-to-late, still think it's a pretty good two for one deal.
But others value Javonte differently than I. Right now, he's valued at RB2 overall, and I just don't have him there yet. In my mind, he's nowhere close to Jonathan Taylor, who is by far and away in a tier by himself, IMO. But if you look at it through that lens, then I suppose that value might not be enough for Javonte.
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greenmountaingoat
Footballguy
Javonte is a tough evaluation. I've had an offer sent to me (Dionte plus 1.14).
His value is super high because he's 21, has low mileage, is on an improving offense, is talented enough (tackle breaking machine) to suppress competition and will likely be peaking in 23-24 when I'm hoping to be contending. So what's the value of a 50/50 odds of a top 5 RB for 2-3 years? A young top 15 WR that's about to enter QB purgatory but might still be a solid contributor but never a top 5 guy? Plus a 50% chance to be a contributing WR/RB on the roster? I realized it was capping my roster's upside even though the odds of his trade value increasing vs decreasing is likely slanted to the decrease side.
The only way a Javonte trade made sense to me is to get back a pick or player that had that kind of upside. It's clear that WAS doesn't intend to use Gibson heavily passing situations. So the lack of hope for a true bellcow role limits his upside IMO to being a high end RB2 which is great but when Javonte is your only piece on your roster with top 5 potential, it's not appealing.
Long story short, especially in full ppr, this seemed like two dimes for a quarter. If the 23 first was mid to early, I think you're more in the vicinity of value IMO. Though I liked your deal better than what I was offered. I don't play in "standard" format but imagine that helps with Gibson's value too.
His value is super high because he's 21, has low mileage, is on an improving offense, is talented enough (tackle breaking machine) to suppress competition and will likely be peaking in 23-24 when I'm hoping to be contending. So what's the value of a 50/50 odds of a top 5 RB for 2-3 years? A young top 15 WR that's about to enter QB purgatory but might still be a solid contributor but never a top 5 guy? Plus a 50% chance to be a contributing WR/RB on the roster? I realized it was capping my roster's upside even though the odds of his trade value increasing vs decreasing is likely slanted to the decrease side.
The only way a Javonte trade made sense to me is to get back a pick or player that had that kind of upside. It's clear that WAS doesn't intend to use Gibson heavily passing situations. So the lack of hope for a true bellcow role limits his upside IMO to being a high end RB2 which is great but when Javonte is your only piece on your roster with top 5 potential, it's not appealing.
Long story short, especially in full ppr, this seemed like two dimes for a quarter. If the 23 first was mid to early, I think you're more in the vicinity of value IMO. Though I liked your deal better than what I was offered. I don't play in "standard" format but imagine that helps with Gibson's value too.
Blick
Footballguy
I thought this was an interesting trade.
Javonte is usually ranked as the RB2. There is no room for his value to increase. His ranking also assumes that he's the workhorse. This is yet to be seen. I'm convinced that Denver either brings back Gordon or drafts a RB. That doesn't mean he won't still get a workhorse share, but it could be 60% - 70% as well.
If I'm not mistaken, Gibson played basically the entire season with toe and shin injuries. There was talk to shutting him down at multiple points. While I don't expect his value to increase (currently RB7 based on Fantasypros), I do expect his production to increase. Given that Wentz has a propensity to check down, I think his PPR numbers will also increase.
Overall, I think its a fair trade.
They also resigned McKissic, who is good in that role and they clearly adore. He had 53 targets last year and he missed several games himself. Gibson is a smooth and capable pass catcher, but JD returning severely caps his upside in my opinion. And he needs to show he can stay on the field.
Where are y’all seeing Javonte at RB2? The sites I look at have him at RB4 or RB5 depending on how one feels about McCaffrey. I would firmly have Taylor, Swift, & Najee ahead of him.
What makes him valuable is his age (22 in a few weeks) and potential (mostly) bell-cow usage. He looked darn good splitting last year with trash at QB and is a YAC machine, and he catches passes. If he gets only 50% of Gordon’s opportunities last year he’s going to be at 300 Carries and 70 targets (not realistic for health probably but that is massive upside.)
All the RB’s clustered after him in the rankings are getting up there in age with Ekeler/Cook/Kamara at 27, Henry at 28, Mixon 26. Compared to Gibson and in terms of startup ADP, would you trade back from the mid-late 1st of a startup to the early 3rd for just 2023 late 1st? Not terrible but would take more than that for me.
What makes him valuable is his age (22 in a few weeks) and potential (mostly) bell-cow usage. He looked darn good splitting last year with trash at QB and is a YAC machine, and he catches passes. If he gets only 50% of Gordon’s opportunities last year he’s going to be at 300 Carries and 70 targets (not realistic for health probably but that is massive upside.)
All the RB’s clustered after him in the rankings are getting up there in age with Ekeler/Cook/Kamara at 27, Henry at 28, Mixon 26. Compared to Gibson and in terms of startup ADP, would you trade back from the mid-late 1st of a startup to the early 3rd for just 2023 late 1st? Not terrible but would take more than that for me.
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Nyheim Hines had his lowest pass catching year with Wentz as well despite an extra game on the schedule. One of the biggest complaints with Wentz is that he doesn’t actually check down, he tries to play hero ball too much.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Lehigh98
Footballguy
Here at FBG. In the dynasty rankings Jason Wood and Jeff Bell both have him at #8 overall (Non-SF). Bell has him as RB2, Wood has him as RB3 (Najee at RB2).
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Agreed on all points. I wouldn’t deal JaWill for Gibson & a late 2023 1st, but I would pay Gibson & a late 2021 1st for JaWill. It’s a fair deal but I like JaWill more, even if Gordon comes back.
Thanks, I agree with the others that’s a little too high. Historically lots of us have been burned by taking 2nd year backs and projecting big increases in volume and workload and stardom. I don’t think Javonte falls into that category of cautionary tales but would certainly discount him a bit just in case he is. Kevin Jones, Ronnie Brown, Cadillac, TRich, Doug Martin, and I am sure plenty of others I have blocked from memory because it’s too painful.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
that magical 1/2 season when I was getting QB numbers out of my running back….legendary production.
Then he went down with injury & *poof* magical season rooned. :(
Fun write-up of the 2010 season here. I never knew how frustrated the Patriots really were. It cheesed off Rodney Harrison more than a little, apparently:
https://www.theringer.com/platform/amp/nfl/2018/8/6/17654594/history-wildcat-miami-dolphins-ronnie-brown-chad-pennington-tony-sparano
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Yeah he played on a fractured shin. Was still dealing with turf toe lingering from the previous season and he had a bum shoulder. Still got tons of run. I don't think it is much more/less than a coinflip on who finishes higher in 2022 between him and Javonte. At least in terms of market, Javonte is definitely a top3 dynasty back right now, though.
WAS had said repeatedly that they want to involve Gibson in the passing game more. He *was* involved as a rookie, and last year they clearly wanted to manage him. Not saying it will be different this year now that McKissic resigned but I think Gibson's outlook really shouldn't be terribly dissimilar from Javonte. And Gordon is a much bigger short term threat than McKissic. Den O > Was O but for a 2023 1st? I think that is pretty good. Fair trade.
jm192
Footballguy
Man!
I had a Ronnie in a PPR Dynasty league, and that year and thought I found the next LT.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I would easily take Javonte over Gibson and a future 1st.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
multiple touchdowns every game, I was blowing out the competition right up until he got hurt. I also had him in the WCOFF, the only year I played in a big $ tourney. I was 7-0 or 8-0 when he went down. He was such a cheat code.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Same. It’s not an unfair deal. Just not one I’d make if I had JaWill.
i almost took JaWill over Pitts, and occasionally still wonder if I should have.
sheerterror
Footballguy
More of a Value Thread question but since it's on topic, what kind of + is needed with CMac to make a respectable offer to the Javonte owner who is a defending champ with a very strong team? He's got Henry and the ghost of Saquon and nothing else. It's a start 1-3 rb league and he could easily win again this year (especially with a healthy McCaffery). Is adding Carter or Mitchell to McCaffery too much?
For me it would be especially to this guy. If you make this trade and CMC is CMC this guy wins going away. I think you could get away with a straight up offer depending on how the guy views the two players (he may think CMC is done and Williams will be RB1). Regardless an initial offer of CMC straight up for Javonte in this guys situation is a good starting point.
greenmountaingoat
Footballguy
I'm pretty green but I have to imagine that the Javonte owner isn't going to feel highly motivated to move him for a guy that's as boom bust as CMC. If his team is stacked, there's no real reason to do it. OTOH, if your team stinks, I think a likely top 23 pick would be a better main chip. If he has a super high value on getting Bijan Robinson/Gibbs/JSN/Boutte back, I would think that might be more highly motivating. Then again, maybe you'd be better off with Bijan than Javonte.
I think that CMC's ceiling is so much higher than his trade value right now, it's not a great time to sell. You're best bet is to ride it out and see if he can re-establish value for your team or in a trade in week 5 after he's scoring 30 points a week again.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
It’s a tough situation, as he has 2 aging backs with recent injury history. If I’m him, I’m not adding a 3rd aging back with recent injury history. Short term there’s some upside. But at some point in the not too distant future this deal turns into a downgrade from JaWill to Carter or Mitchell.
Others may disagree, but I’d be unlikely to accept.
sheerterror
Footballguy
His team is stacked with blue chips but lacks depth even at WR. I actually have a very strong roster, was defending champ into last season, perennial top 3, just starting to age out a little bit in my core (CMac, Allen, Hopkins) so it's trying to be proactive on my part to an extent. I could easily ride out this roster and compete for a championship myself, so I don't think he would value a 2023 1st as much as Mitchell or Carter. I guess this offer would be me banking on him placing a higher value on trying to win another one next year where I would argue the 'gamble' of CMac's ceiling + some insurance of a young RB2 with upside might swing it for him.
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steelcityman
Footballguy
What is about the going rate to move up one or two spots in a rookie draft? I am eyeballing 1 player and think I will need to move up from 1.10 to 7 or 8 or 9. This might be the first year i will want to move up, I have a bunch of picks, but have no idea what it takes to move around in the draft. I usually trade back and gain for the future. But this year might be the year to flip the script. I know it depends on the trade partner, but what is about the average pick cost to move up like that? A 2nd rd pick, would that be enough for you to move down 2 spots in the first?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Nope. Not even close. This year especially where it’s a somewhat top-heavy draft. To go from 1.10 to 1.07 (or even 1.08) you’d probably have to pay a 2023 2nd.
The same reason you want to move up is why your 2022 2nd isn’t going to get it done. IMO it’ll have to be a ‘23 pick or a player, or both.
This is a draft spot I put a lot of thought into as I was going to have 1.08. In SF that was about where I saw the potentially elite talent dry up. I ended up dealing 1.08 in a package for a player instead, but no way I’d want to move out of the top 8 for a later ‘22 pick (or even several later ‘22 picks)
To some owners you are correct. To other's that want as many dart throws as possible in a draft knowing that typically a couple guys in the 2nd will hit it's not a bad offer. Basically it all boils down to the other guys thoughts on who is available when the pick is on the clock. If the has 3 or 4 guys all about the same and can drop a couple spots and still get one of those while also getting another dart throw a few picks later it makes sense to do. Now is it better for him to take a 2023 pick instead of a 2022, probably. But starting with the current year 2nd rounder isn't a bad initial feeler.
All depends on the other owner, but a 2nd should be enough for a move in the late 1st to get a conversation started. A big determinate will be on where people see the tier break. If I see a big drop after 9 to pick a number, it’s going to cost more to move back to 10 than 9 by possibly quite a bit.
IMO these types of trades are best done when on the clock, you know if your guy is there and there are usually teams that love to trade down. Often they will do it fairly cheaply, especially at the start of a new tier. So if your guy is in the consensus third tier, and tier 2 ends at 5, the guys at 6 or 7 are the ones to talk to that may move down for a relatively cheap cost. It’s not without risk though, some owners drag out the clock exploring every trade, some owners pick immediately and don’t even respond to offers
Another option is to try to include a pick swap as part of some other trade this time of year. If we are off on value a little IMO and I feel a 2nd would even it, instead I may see if they will agree to moving from their 6 down to my 9 or something. Doesn’t always work but sometimes.
Birdie048
Footballguy
I completely agree. This is what I would require.
Moving out the Top 7 this year would require a 2023 2nd and not a 2022 2nd. The "depth" of expected talent is significant to impact this type of move.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Oh totally agree. Throw the offer out & see what happens. Even better, throw the offer(s) out while the top 5 is drafting. Sometimes in the heat of the moment things change. Maybe the dude 1.08 was in love with got taken 1.05, and in a fit of depression, they’re more open to dropping back as a modest profit now that they’ve missed their target. I could totally see that.
I was responding specifically for what it would take for me to move back, but you make a great point.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I should have read your post before replying to @Gally - we made some of the same points, specifically about making the offer during the draft.All depends on the other owner, but a 2nd should be enough for a move in the late 1st to get a conversation started. A big determinate will be on where people see the tier break. If I see a big drop after 9 to pick a number, it’s going to cost more to move back to 10 than 9 by possibly quite a bit.
IMO these types of trades are best done when on the clock, you know if your guy is there and there are usually teams that love to trade down. Often they will do it fairly cheaply, especially at the start of a new tier. So if your guy is in the consensus third tier, and tier 2 ends at 5, the guys at 6 or 7 are the ones to talk to that may move down for a relatively cheap cost. It’s not without risk though, some owners drag out the clock exploring every trade, some owners pick immediately and don’t even respond to offers
Another option is to try to include a pick swap as part of some other trade this time of year. If we are off on value a little IMO and I feel a 2nd would even it, instead I may see if they will agree to moving from their 6 down to my 9 or something. Doesn’t always work but sometimes.
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
Holy crap. 26 Dynasty leagues. I have 1 dynasty, 6 redraft, and 1 best ball and am the commish of all but 2 of the redraft ones and I thought I had a bunch.
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
The Toney love has officially just got ridiculous. Kelce alone is worth too much even if aging. Especially at a position that is so shallow. I'm not sure why anyone would even consider this. This would get a laugh out of me, a rage decline, and then mock them on the chat board of my league.-OZ- said:
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
JJ is one of the best assets in fantasy football plus you are only downgrading once spot from 7 to 8 so that is basically a wash. I'd pay more than this for JJ if I could get him for this type of package.
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
100% agree. JJ is the best asset in FF IMO and I would pay much more to get him.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I see it more as "this was one terrible awful horrible no-good trade" - I don't think it's an indictment of the FF community's love for Toney in general. Most of the deals I've seen on here involving Toney have been pretty reasonable.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Yeah I agree. I am a bit high on Toney right now but that Kelce deal was definitely horrible and a one-off.
steelcityman
Footballguy
I was planning on offering during the draft. I see 10 solid picks that seem consensus picks. There is one there in the bottom 2-3 of the top 10 that I really want. So I offer 1.10 and 2.04 for your 1.08, wont be accepted by a lot of you? If thats not enough I will stand pat, take my chances. Still gonna get a good player at 1.10 just might not be the one I wanted. I'll offer it, but I guess i need to be prepared to be rejected. I thought that would be an overpay and easily accepted by others.I should have read your post before replying to @Gally - we made some of the same points, specifically about making the offer during the draft.
thanks for the input.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
If you have 10 players you’d be happy with at 10, then standing pat is your best bet.
If I had 1.08 I would absolutely reject 1.10 + 2.04 for it. Because I only had 8 players I liked in the 2022 1st round. So now instead of getting a player who’s upside is potential WR1, I’m more likely getting a potential WR2 (or RB)
That’s how I evaluate this year’s draft. From what I’ve seen, that’s how many others do as well. Moving down two spots might as well give me 2x 2nd round picks, because I don’t see 1.10 as a 1st round FF value.
I can only respond with what I value these picks at. Naturally others may disagree. I suggest offering it to find out how your potential trade partner feels. Maybe they agree with you & would be happy to go from 1.08 to 1.10 and get a 2.04 as a bonus. If they accept the offer, you’ll know for sure.
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But if you are on the clock at 1.08 and there are still 3 of your top 8 players left you for sure take that deal to move back to 1.10If you have 10 players you’d be happy with at 10, then standing pat is your best bet.
If I had 1.08 I would absolutely reject 1.10 + 2.04 for it. Because I only had 8 players I liked in the 2022 1st round. So now instead of getting a player who’s upside is potential WR1, I’m more likely getting a potential WR2 (or RB)
That’s how I evaluate this year’s draft. From what I’ve seen, that’s how many others do as well. Moving down two spots might as well give me 2x 2nd round picks, because I don’t see 1.10 as a 1st round FF value.
I can only respond with what I value these picks at. Naturally others may disagree. I suggest offering it to find out how your potential trade partner feels. Maybe they agree with you & would be happy to go from 1.08 to 1.10 and get a 2.04 as a bonus. If they accept the offer, you’ll know for sure.
Just because you have a top 8 doesn't mean you can't still get one of those 8 at pick 10
Mixed in right before all the moving up in the first round talk so it may have been missed for comments. A lot of Zeke talk so here was a deal that actually got done.
Thoughts?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Absolutely. That is why I recommended waiting until the actual draft to see what’s on the board at 1.08. It may not be necessary to make a trade at all… At that point you would just be giving away a second round pick and getting your guy anyway at 10.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
FFPC 1QB this is the first trade I've made since cuts happened
I gave 1.03, 2023 3rd, 5.10
I got 1.02
I think that is a screaming deal to move up that spot. Right now I think there is a clear tier break there but if I'm wrong I will still end up preferring the 1.02 by a bit.
I gave 1.03, 2023 3rd, 5.10
I got 1.02
I think that is a screaming deal to move up that spot. Right now I think there is a clear tier break there but if I'm wrong I will still end up preferring the 1.02 by a bit.
wlwiles
Footballguy
all day long and twice on Sundays. I have a 1.04 that I'd love to bump up to the 1.02 or 1.03 but I can't even get their attention
Jonesin For Some Football
Footballguy
I know last year (even before his sophomore season) before the draft, in my league, he went for 1.01 (Harris) and a 22 1st that was projected middle but ended up being 1.09. I'd have to get paid off to trade him. Too bad I moved him his rookie year before he blew up. Hate my life sometimes but I did get the chip out of it.
