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I don’t disagree, but we’ve all seen that Hill isn’t a 1-trick pony. And the 49ers coaching tree is no stranger to handing the ball off to a WR on a sweep, as Hill has had success with in KC, and also being a YAC monster on short to intermediate passing.
That’s fair. But it does feel like you’re going down a long and windy road to justify the values here & make the math work. I have Hill several tiers above every 2022 rookie WR.
Sure - Hill is not a one trick pony, but his fantasy "bread" is buttered by those deep TDs. He's very tough, but is also half the size of Deebo so if I owned him I wouldn't feel great seeing him lined up in the backfield too often. Waddle is the closet thing to Hill that we've seen in a while and although he had a very nice rookie season, it seemed most of his targets came within 10 yards from the line of scrimmage. If that's how Hill is used, he'll surely be effective, but his numbers will have to drop.
i think this is the correct position. It’s not horrible, but Hill > 1.02 by a lot.
I liked your first paragraph, but I disagree that ETN = Hall. I think ETN has a lot more bust potential than Hall and I don't think Hall will be otherworldly. In fact, he could be average.i think this is the correct position. It’s not horrible, but Hill > 1.02 by a lot.
It’s very specific to this draft class, too, as you suggest. If this were 2023 1.02, I’m getting Gibbs, JSN, Boutte, or Young/Stroud at 1.02. Maybe even Bijan if a QB goes 1.01
1.02 this year is nowhere near as valuable, and assuming London is the target (since it was mentioned) I see a huge amount of risk there too. Easily as much as Hill faces going from Mahomes to Tua. London becomes the WR1/2nd target after Pitts, on a team that’s in full rebuild mode with a placeholder/bridge QB.
Short term there’s potential for a disastrous drop-off from Hill ~> London.
Maybe it works out long term. I’m not high on Tua either, but Hill might help him to improve. Maybe the deep shots are a chicken & the egg, and his deep ball isn’t that bad.
And to be clear, I’d be ok with this if Hall was the real prize and that drop-off from Hill -> London, and Monty -> 2.xx + Gronk was the price to pay. But I’m not convinced Hall is better than ETN.
If it turns out that ETN is the generational talent JAX drafted, then it’s
ETN = Hall
Hill >> London
Monty >>> Gronk + 2023 2.xx
At least IMO. And I believe it’s possible that ETN > Hall, so…
Time will tell. I did specifically say “if”. There’s absolutely potential for ETN to be = or > than Hall. I’m not calling it a lock, but it is in the range of possible outcomes.
I believe someone here has 7, while I only have 6 + 2.01
Man. I know a lot can change between now and then, but I’m counting at least 10-12 elite-level prospects in the class. I’m giddy just thinking about it. If you play in SF, or 2QB like my league is, it’s possible there’s still going to be really quality guys at the end of the 2nd round. Early mocks I’ve seen have as many as 6 QB’s going in the 1st round of the NFL draft.
Fonzie knows what’s up.
Youch. So is there where I mention my earlier Zeke trade (to start my rebuild) where I sent Zeke and Corey Davis and got the 2.9, 3.9, 2023 1st and 2023 3rd? I definitely was lucky to sell sky high, but this is selling waaaaay low.
Well done, the kind of seemingly small movement that can pay big dividends and really cost you nothing but probably make your 1.4 decision a little more clear.
I guess but if true I'm only doing that to explain my reasoning here. It wasn't that hard of a deal for me. I was ready to pull the trigger on it before ever looking at a calc. As I've said many times, I use my own values anyway. It is super ok if you prefer Tyreek and those players in that deal. My reasoning has been pretty straightforward though. No fuzzy math involved. Short road not long. And straight not windy. I prefer the picks.
I don't know that I would have the guts either (even though I said I would take 1.03 over him) which is why it was easier in this package deal. But I mean in my mind it was Hill for 1.01 and ETN for 1.02 with me getting some value coming back for both, which helped cover the Monty for Gronk/2nd part.
I know Zeke's value is down right now as it should be but this is way to light for a top 10 RB. 2 3rds and a 4th and late in those rounds. Just terrible.-OZ- said:
I'd take the EK/Jones side myself but I am admittedly down on Gibson. I do like Pollard and if you are high on those guys I can get it as Dillon is going to continue to cut in to Jones and EK has some injury concerns. I get the argument but not the way I'd go.
For that return, I think I am going down with the ship. This is probably Zeke's last chance for a good year before he is moved and I, as a Zeke owner and Cowboys fan, am hopeful he has a decent year. I don't understand the urgency in moving him for this price tag, as I don't think his value drops more than this within the season.
3rds (especially late) and 4ths can be ok throw-ins as dart throws but aren't main pieces to deals to me. I totally agree with you, at this price, I'd take the chance that some contender during the year has some RB injuries (they always happen) and I can move him for a better return. I'd be ok with him rotting on my roster if not for this return.
Yeah, this year in 6 round rookie drafts, I’m probably taking under valued vets for depth In the latter half of the draft for bye week, value instead of even more rookie fliers.
My leagues are all deep IDP, so the 3rd round on tend to be top DE, corners, etc. not many vets to be had (over 800 players rostered). Occasionally you’ll find a vet like Denzel Perryman or Blake Bortles.Yeah, this year in 6 round rookie drafts, I’m probably taking under valued vets for depth In the latter half of the draft for bye week, value instead of even more rookie fliers.
though, as I type that, I can see myself not doing that either
Yeah, I should probably start all my dynasty related posts with "I only play in FFPC, Keep 16, short bench dynasty leagues" since my comments are totally biased to my experience there.
I don't necessarily agree but it's not fetched at all when we're talking "value" and Hill be 29 after this season.
As an owner of Lance who has been trying to get Lawrence in other leagues, I think I prefer Lawrence. But it’s close
Interesting. This could somewhat work out for both, but chances are one guys going to be much happier than the other about his side in a couple years.
