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****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (16 Viewers)

It's light until it isn't. People were saying the same thing about Nuk this time last year. You'd be lucky to get a 2nd for Nuk now. There's an art to exiting the stage before their value evaporates. 
I don't mind cashing out a little light. That ~10pts or so against the field is huge though. If you got a contender I would ride him to the end.
Yeah his age was the only thing that gave me pause.  He's such a target hog though, and now no Tyreek, if he doesn't go over the cliff this year it should be huge.

 
Had a bunch of rookie drafts start this week so have been doing some moving around, all 12 team sf 1.5 TE PPR leagues start 11.

Gave up 2.06 and T. Marshall

Got 2.03 and get J Dotson

since had fallen there I thought it was worth exiting on Marshall.  

Gave Nick Chubb

Got 23 1st and Ronald Jones

I have Ekeler and A Jones already so was trying to get myself more shots in the 23 draft and who knows what Jones is in KC.

Gave Gallup for a 23 2nd  

This is my one rebuild orphan so happy to get liquid in case his rehab has a setback.

Gave Miles Sanders for 2.02

Same rebuild, I tried a lot of ways to get a future 1st by combining him with Pollard, but couldn't get anywhere.  I feel like this puts me in J Cook or R White range to reset the clock on RB.

 
I’m extremely low on Sanders, and I think Carr moves into top 12 territory with the upgrades to their offense.

i see if as fair in 1-QB leagues and an absolute bargain in SF. 
I agree with being down on Sanders and who knows if he is even an Eagle after this year.  Carr should get a jolt with Adams and having to score a ton in the AFC West this year.

With that being said, I think it is an absolute steal in SF but I still think Sanders is worth more than a back end QB1 in 1 QB leagues due to positional scarcity.  Fair enough depending on roster construction but Sanders definitely worth more on paper.

 
12 team ppr QB/2RB/3WR/TE/FL

Team A gave up:

  • Mahomes, Patrick KCC QB; 
  • Hill, Kylin GBP RB; 
  • Allen, Keenan LAC WR
Team B gave up:

  • Carr, Derek LVR QB; 
  • Sanders, Miles PHI RB; 
  • Scott, Boston PHI RB;
  • Year 2023 Round 3 Draft Pick from Team B
Wow.....this is a terrible return for Mahomes.  They also gave up Keenan Allen who is the 2nd best player in this trade and only got a 3rd back.  This wouldn't even be fair if they got a 2023 1st back unless that pick was way early.  Like 1.01.  The Carr love has gone too far and not sure why anyone would believe in the Philly backfield this much.  Just bad.

 
12 team PPR, TE Bonus - QB/RB/WR/WR/WR/FL/FL

Team A gives: TE Travis Kelce

Team B gives: 2023 1st (likely mid-late)
This is fair-ish but I like to compete.  I have Kelce on my team and have Pitts behind him and wouldn't trade Kelce for this but I'm trying to win the trophy again this year.  If rebuilding, I have no problem with it but nobody making this deal trying to win now.

 
Better a year early than a year late. 
You hear this all the time in almost every situation but I am not too sure that it is always correct.  I can see many scenarios where riding a guy until he expires is better than trading him away early.  

The "year early" or "year late" is an interesting idea but since nobody really knows for sure it can be problematic.   The overarching premise to any trade is that it makes your team better in some way.  If you are trading a guy a "year early" and it makes your team worse then it shouldn't probably be made.  Now the evaluation of making your team worse can be up for debate.  Sometimes it makes sense to make your team worse in the short term to get greater benefits down the line (trading something for a 2023 1st rounder for example).  That is definitely in play and something to be evaluated for sure.  

Team situation also plays a big role in whether or not the original premise applies as well.  For the example of what started this comment if I was a contending team I would definitely want to keep Kelce and ride him into the sunset because I am competing now and in the near term.  However, if I am not in a position to complete trading him away to benefit the rebuild is worthwhile for the right price.  But I wouldn't necessarily categorize that as selling a "year early" as much as it is selling to help the rebuild.  

All of this is just rambling out loud to think about the statement and what it really means.   In the end you are always trying to make your team better so giving someone away (and that is not necessarily the case here)  is never the right thing to do.   Always try and make your team better and that doesn't always mean you have to get market value in a deal.  Sometimes getting less than market value makes sense and improves your team even if it improves the other guy a little more.  

 
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You here this all the time in almost every situation but I am not too sure that it is always correct.  I can see many scenarios where riding a guy until he expires is better than trading him away early.  

The "year early" or "year late" is an interesting idea but since nobody really knows for sure it can be problematic.   The overarching premise to any trade is that it makes your team better in some way.  If you are trading a guy a "year early" and it makes your team worse then it shouldn't probably be made.  Now the evaluation of making your team worse can be up for debate. 
I was about to post something very similar. I think this is largely semantics here and like you said, everyone uses this phrase about better being a year early than a year late. I'm not so sure it means what people think it does either.

By definition, "too early" implies you missed out on valuable production. It wouldn't be valuable if the words "too early" are being used. Missing out on valuable production might not be a huge deal if we're talking about a player you'd probably flex (like Nuk), but Kelce at TE in a TEP format? It doesn't get more valuable.

Ok so what does "too late" look like? Well we know. That is where Kelce falls off a cliff (this year) and one is left holding the bag saying dang I wish I had taken that mid 2023 1st. This is well within the range of outcomes. I personally have "too early" scenario as being dramatically more likely, but the cliff *is* coming at some point and it is not crazy to think it could be soon. I also wonder if Kelce gets defended heavier now that Tyreek is gone. All legit concerns.

Personally I would rather miss out on the 2023 1st and end up holding the bag if the alternative is to see him put up another top3 TE season in 2022. Which I really think is extremely likely. 

If I'm rebuilding I look for more in a deal, simple as that. Not necessarily a ton but this isn't enough. In my experience the best way to get maximum trade value for a player that is very difficult to get max trade value for, is to package them. I'd be trying to add something to Kelce so that I get that 2023 1st plus another solid player plus another pick. 

 
You hear this all the time in almost every situation but I am not too sure that it is always correct.  I can see many scenarios where riding a guy until he expires is better than trading him away early.  

The "year early" or "year late" is an interesting idea but since nobody really knows for sure it can be problematic.   The overarching premise to any trade is that it makes your team better in some way.  If you are trading a guy a "year early" and it makes your team worse then it shouldn't probably be made.  Now the evaluation of making your team worse can be up for debate.  Sometimes it makes sense to make your team worse in the short term to get greater benefits down the line (trading something for a 2023 1st rounder for example).  That is definitely in play and something to be evaluated for sure.  

Team situation also plays a big role in whether or not the original premise applies as well.  For the example of what started this comment if I was a contending team I would definitely want to keep Kelce and ride him into the sunset because I am competing now and in the near term.  However, if I am not in a position to complete trading him away to benefit the rebuild is worthwhile for the right price.  But I wouldn't necessarily categorize that as selling a "year early" as much as it is selling to help the rebuild.  

All of this is just rambling out loud to think about the statement and what it really means.   In the end you are always trying to make your team better so giving someone away (and that is not necessarily the case here)  is never the right thing to do.   Always try and make your team better and that doesn't always mean you have to get market value in a deal.  Sometimes getting less than market value makes sense and improves your team even if it improves the other guy a little more.  
I’m not saying it’s foolproof. Look at Walsh with Montana - he took the chiefs to the playoffs the very next year wearing that sickeningly wrong-colored red uni. 

But it wasn’t long until his back issues caught up with him & ended his career.

Now, FF is a much different animal than RL football, so for us nerds is more about maximizing trade value. And as you aptly said, situational determinations are critical to the process.

If I’m looking at a rebuild and looking at Hopkins, Kelce, ARob & Conner on my roster, I’m moving them as quickly as possible because perception is these players are aging out/downside. 

if I’m a competing team with a legit shot at a ‘ship, imma ride them ponies into the sunset, or at least give ‘em another year & maybe take less value for them after trying one more time to cash. 

The expression has more merit in the NFL than in our magical foozeball game, but it’s still good to keep in mind. And for better or worse, in FF, perception becomes reality. If enough talking heads and nerds on message boards are down on a player, that player’s trade value drops. Sometimes all that takes is a page turn on the calendar so their age starts with a “3”. It might create opportunity for buy-low on still viable, but aging assets for a competing team, but for a rebuilding team, ever day that passes might cost you value.

 
Perfect timing is ideal but I generally fall under the category of moving a player to early, especially when it come's to RB's.

Next year is going to be an extremely interesting year to test my theory that you need to move RB's before their age 27 season but I don't want to get off subject.

For me if I can get a high end young prospect I'm generally willing to move out from the older player. Simple as that and does not matter if I'm contending or not. Based on my research recent history, as in last few years, suggest RB's and WR's are aging worse then ever before. Again don't want to get off subject but the performance of 30+ WR's and 27+ RB's has not been good. QB's are aging like champs and TE's solid but just don't feel like I have enough data on them since so few elite one's exist.

Last season I sold Dalvin for Najee and a third round pick, this was back in August. Ran that trade by a few different people and everyone said  I sold cheap. That trade literally won me a championship so this goes back to me saying whether I'm contending or not I'm still going to try and get younger. If I can identify a younger player I think can give me something close to the vet I'm going younger.

I tried to trade Dalvin as well as Kamara last year in several other leagues as I was working around my sell before their age 27 season theory for RB's. It appears I might have waited a year to late on both. Perhaps I'll feel differently after this season but both are for sure stock down.

I tried, unsuccessfully, to trade  Kelce for Pitt's or the right to draft Pitts during the rookie drafts last year on a team of mine that is a contender(plus I got Mahomes and Hill and enjoyed owning all major Chiefs). That one is a bit different as TE's take longer to ramp up so this one I felt could really cost me fro the year but when you are talking about massive potential difference in what those players can give you over the next 5-10 years it's something I'm always going to do.

Way I see it when players hit a certain age, like Tyreek is now, like all of the RB's from the 2017 draft class, Kelce, etc, etc. no matter what they actually do on the field their value in terms of the market is nothing but downhill. Their are cases no trades really make sense or none you can pull off so if contending just best to sunset them on your roster but in a general sense if you tell me I'm sitting on almost 100% sure to decline asset and I can move it for a likely minimal drop or such an extreme age difference like Kelce vs Pitts I'm going that direction.

 
I was OTC in a Zealots PPR for the 1.02 (orphan team that I took over), and was offered the following:

Give 1.02

Get JK Dobbins, Christian Kirk, and Gus Edwards

Accepted it, and person ended up taking Kenneth Walker.

Orphan team is a bit of rebuild, but I figure Dobbins is still only 23. The other best WRs on this team are Russell Gage and Tim Patrick; so, Kirk sadly becomes my #1. At least gives me a couple of assets. I would have considered a trade down for extra picks, but no takers for that.

 
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I was OTC in a Zealots PPR for the 1.02 (orphan team that I took over), and was offered the following:

Give 1.02

Get JK Dobbins, Christian Kirk, and Gus Edwards

Accepted it, and person ended up taking Kenneth Walker.

Orphan team is a bit of rebuild, but I figure Dobbins is still only 23. The other best WRs on this team are Russell Gage and Tim Patrick; so, Kirk sadly becomes my #1. At least gives me a couple of assets. I would have considered a trade down for extra picks, but no takers for that.
Good pull, imo. That’s a boon for you. 

 
Don Quixote said:
I was OTC in a Zealots PPR for the 1.02 (orphan team that I took over), and was offered the following:

Give 1.02

Get JK Dobbins, Christian Kirk, and Gus Edwards

Accepted it, and person ended up taking Kenneth Walker.

Orphan team is a bit of rebuild, but I figure Dobbins is still only 23. The other best WRs on this team are Russell Gage and Tim Patrick; so, Kirk sadly becomes my #1. At least gives me a couple of assets. I would have considered a trade down for extra picks, but no takers for that.
I like this. 

 
Also like it. It's reliant on Dobbins coming back healthy, but you've got two stabs at the Baltimore backfield from that perspective this season and Kirk isn't a bad piece to hold

 
Don Quixote said:
I was OTC in a Zealots PPR for the 1.02 (orphan team that I took over), and was offered the following:

Give 1.02

Get JK Dobbins, Christian Kirk, and Gus Edwards

Accepted it, and person ended up taking Kenneth Walker.

Orphan team is a bit of rebuild, but I figure Dobbins is still only 23. The other best WRs on this team are Russell Gage and Tim Patrick; so, Kirk sadly becomes my #1. At least gives me a couple of assets. I would have considered a trade down for extra picks, but no takers for that.
It is a good return, but I am not sold on Dobbins/Gus getting enough touches to be worth the 1.02 and the RBBC/QB Keeper issues.....   And Kirk in JAX?  The Offense is still struggling, but maybe HC Doug will have them improving on opportunities.  

I think I am on the "Walker/1.02" side here. 

 
Don Quixote said:
I was OTC in a Zealots PPR for the 1.02 (orphan team that I took over), and was offered the following:

Give 1.02

Get JK Dobbins, Christian Kirk, and Gus Edwards

Accepted it, and person ended up taking Kenneth Walker.

Orphan team is a bit of rebuild, but I figure Dobbins is still only 23. The other best WRs on this team are Russell Gage and Tim Patrick; so, Kirk sadly becomes my #1. At least gives me a couple of assets. I would have considered a trade down for extra picks, but no takers for that.
It's close but I would have preferred to keep Walker myself.

Dobbins as you pointed out is only 23 but that's still almost two years older then Walker and coming off an ACL widens the gap between the two.

Past that I just don't like long term upside of a Ravens RB. Fair to question Seattle's as well but I just think it eventually offers more upside based on anticipated RB usage and without so much of the offense going through a QB, one not big on checking down.

Kirk is nice and Edwards is good insurance but if I"m rebuilding I'd much rather have the almost 2 year younger RB not returning from major surgery.

Oddly enough, just from my angle, I'd have liked the trade more for you if you were not rebuilding because for just this year I'd rather have the Ravens duo over Walker alone, Kirk is just a nice bonus. I say this because of presence of Penny and possibly Carson and that I expect Seattle to trot out a better option at QB then Lock or Geno by 2023 at the latest.

 
Don Quixote said:
I was OTC in a Zealots PPR for the 1.02 (orphan team that I took over), and was offered the following:

Give 1.02

Get JK Dobbins, Christian Kirk, and Gus Edwards

Accepted it, and person ended up taking Kenneth Walker.

Orphan team is a bit of rebuild, but I figure Dobbins is still only 23. The other best WRs on this team are Russell Gage and Tim Patrick; so, Kirk sadly becomes my #1. At least gives me a couple of assets. I would have considered a trade down for extra picks, but no takers for that.
Not my favorite return as I'm not really high on Kirk in Jax but they paid him or Gus behind JK but he can be playable.  I like the building of assets and think you did pretty good here with what the team was dealing with.

 
It's light until it isn't. People were saying the same thing about Nuk this time last year. You'd be lucky to get a 2nd for Nuk now. There's an art to exiting the stage before their value evaporates. 
I got a 1st and Claypool for Hopkins a few weeks before the suspension was announced.

 
Sooo speak of the devil. Hard for me to say whether this team was/is competitive this year but it is a very old team and I've been trying to move these two ever since I took it over last year as an orphan project. Very inactive league IDK. I also didn't go looking for this after the discussion earlier, it just happened that way.

FFPC 1QB

I gave Kelce, Zeke, 2023 2nd
I got Akers, Gesicki, 2023 1st

 
1QB 24 teams, 2 copies of each player, 11 starters, 25 man rosters. My one and only non-FFPC dynasty team anymore. I took it over as an orphan ~2 years ago and it was really, really bad. 

I gave McLaurin, 2023 3rd
I got CEH, Jones II, 2.02

I am deep at WR (and will probably be deeper after the draft) but need RBs behind Mixon. Gainwell was my RB2.

 
1QB 24 teams, 2 copies of each player, 11 starters, 25 man rosters. My one and only non-FFPC dynasty team anymore. I took it over as an orphan ~2 years ago and it was really, really bad. 

I gave McLaurin, 2023 3rd
I got CEH, Jones II, 2.02

I am deep at WR (and will probably be deeper after the draft) but need RBs behind Mixon. Gainwell was my RB2.
This one isn't FFPC so my point system doesn't fit 1:1 but I have McLaurin+3rd as 30+5 and CEH side as 25+10+15.

 
Don Quixote said:
I was OTC in a Zealots PPR for the 1.02 (orphan team that I took over), and was offered the following:

Give 1.02

Get JK Dobbins, Christian Kirk, and Gus Edwards

Accepted it, and person ended up taking Kenneth Walker.

Orphan team is a bit of rebuild, but I figure Dobbins is still only 23. The other best WRs on this team are Russell Gage and Tim Patrick; so, Kirk sadly becomes my #1. At least gives me a couple of assets. I would have considered a trade down for extra picks, but no takers for that.
I'd rather have Walker. Or London or Burks. I may be too low on Kirk but I am also really super nervous about Dobbins. If nothing else I believe each of those 3 rookies will be able to be flipped for more in a couple/few months or inseason. But I am also really rooting for Dobbins so I hope it works out. And if Kirk isn't the #1 target in Jax I think they may need to disband the franchise. 

 
Don Quixote said:
I was OTC in a Zealots PPR for the 1.02 (orphan team that I took over), and was offered the following:

Give 1.02

Get JK Dobbins, Christian Kirk, and Gus Edwards

Accepted it, and person ended up taking Kenneth Walker.

Orphan team is a bit of rebuild, but I figure Dobbins is still only 23. The other best WRs on this team are Russell Gage and Tim Patrick; so, Kirk sadly becomes my #1. At least gives me a couple of assets. I would have considered a trade down for extra picks, but no takers for that.
I like Dobbins more than Walker, so good trade.

 
How do you go about assigning values in FFPC? You don't have to tell the world your secrets or anything, I'm just looking for a general idea. 
It is fairly arbitrary TBH but the *vast* majority of the bell curve matches other market sources* within a small range. And then there are some outliers here and there that I actively (not arbitrary per se) choose to bump up or down significantly or moderately based on my own take. CEH is a perfect example. I am much higher than market consensus. Carter is a guy I was higher on than consensus but was forced to bump down very significantly after Hall was drafted. So obviously my outlier calls can be wrong. I would venture to say that (so far) I was right about Gabriel Davis and yada yada I can point to plenty of misses and hits. But largely the value system matches other systems. 

For reference I have Mahomes as QB1 at 60 pts in SuperFlex and 30 in single-QB leagues. A bottom tier starter like Mariota I have at 11 in SF and like 3 in 1QB. I wrote an article last year where I attempted to calibrate my system to the notion of "how much is an FFPC roster spot worth?" And although it is largely back of the napkin stuff, I came up with 7 points as the value of a typical roster spot. Which means Mariota is not worth rostering in 1QB (according to a purely dry take of the numbers) if my system is (close to) something worthwhile.

 
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Taylor RB1 50
Chase WR1 50
Pitts TE1 50

Only Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and I may need to look at unrostered QBs but in SF those are the top values.

I have some back of the envelope rookies like Snoop Conner and Abram Smith as 5 points. Not quite worth rostering (yet) but I don't have to cut until September.

 
Taylor RB1 50
Chase WR1 50
Pitts TE1 50

Only Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and I may need to look at unrostered QBs but in SF those are the top values.

I have some back of the envelope rookies like Snoop Conner and Abram Smith as 5 points. Not quite worth rostering (yet) but I don't have to cut until September.
I'd like to see that article just to get an idea of how you quantified what a roster spot is worth. Do you have it and is it not behind a paywall? 

I'd be interested to look at my own league and figure out what a roster spot is worth. 

 
Which means Mariota is not worth rostering in 1QB (according to a purely dry take of the numbers) if my system is (close to) something worthwhile.
But it is subject to mad bias on my part because all I have to do is *decide* Mariota is worth rostering and bump him up to like 8 pts. That is why I call it fairly arbitrary. But what can I say I try hard not to BS myself. The largest utility I have found to my system is not so much the granular look at player x, y or z but rather the larger scale picture of the overall franchise value and tracking that over time. I have some project orphans I took over that (I think) are ready to dominate and a couple others that need more work. I suppose one can just look at their roster and decide with a gut call of where they are sitting, but this system tries to cut through that. Like I said, most of my values match market, IMO.

 
By the way, you misspelled "Jefferson" before your WR1 value. Just sayin'. 
Yeah I have him at 48. Splitting hairs but I like the homerun upside of Chase better. I will admit I like Jefferson's floor better but there is also a longevity associated with Burrow vs Cousins but I mean I really don't have a problem with anyone calling Jefferson WR1. Love him.

 
I'd like to see that article just to get an idea of how you quantified what a roster spot is worth. Do you have it and is it not behind a paywall? 

I'd be interested to look at my own league and figure out what a roster spot is worth. 
It is behind a paywall but lemme see what I can do with it. It involved really diving into some of the finer FFPC specific points. Maybe I can summarize a bit and throw into the FFPC thread.

 
Yeah I have him at 48. Splitting hairs but I like the homerun upside of Chase better. I will admit I like Jefferson's floor better but there is also a longevity associated with Burrow vs Cousins but I mean I really don't have a problem with anyone calling Jefferson WR1. Love him.
Yeah, I was just teasing. Plus, weren't you the one that had a lot of shares of him and gobbled him up wherever you could during the 2020 rookie drafts? I don't want to sidetrack the thread too much, but I remember that. 

 
I'd like to see that article just to get an idea of how you quantified what a roster spot is worth. Do you have it and is it not behind a paywall? 

I'd be interested to look at my own league and figure out what a roster spot is worth. 
I posted over in the FFPC thread and I hope it helps. If you have deeper benches it is probably useless. 

 
I posted over in the FFPC thread and I hope it helps. If you have deeper benches it is probably useless. 
Thanks. I just saw a snippet of it posted up on Twitter. It's in my timeline, which I curate pretty conspicuously (in case you're wondering why you showed up immediately). 

 
Whoa whoa whoa, I dunno what y’all are talking about in here but it’s triggered the “hot” flag.

settle down now or get a room. 
:pickle:  

 
Not a big one - 14 team PPR TE 1.5

I gave up

Conklin and 2023 3rd round pick

for

2023 2nd round pick

 
Agreed.
I only play 1 SF league and it’s not dynasty, but I don’t see such a huge difference between Dak and Stafford that I’d need to throw in both CEH and the better draft pick. 
Yeah, I’m not a CEH guy at all. I just think Stafford will give similar production, which means a free CEH + the improved pick. 👍🏼

 
I’ll take Stafford/CEH


Agreed.
I only play 1 SF league and it’s not dynasty, but I don’t see such a huge difference between Dak and Stafford that I’d need to throw in both CEH and the better draft pick. 
+1 but I am not sure I don't prefer Stafford over Dak in my boxscores for the next couple years. Not by much. Otherwise CEH and the 2nd by a landslide for me. 

 
+1 but I am not sure I don't prefer Stafford over Dak in my boxscores for the next couple years. Not by much. Otherwise CEH and the 2nd by a landslide for me. 
Honestly don’t see that much of a difference. Dallas has blown up their receiving corps, and Dak hasn’t looked like pre-injury Dak. Granted, that could happen, and he’s younger than Stafford.

it could still happen, and Dak could make this deal tip the other way, but value-wise I think it’s ok either way. 

 
10 team PPR SF, not involved

Team A sends: DJ Moore, 2023 1st (probably late)

Team B sends: Stefon Diggs, Tony Pollard

edited w/clarification of when the pick will be, read teams wrong way round

 
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12 team SF PPR

Gave 1.08 and a 23 2nd

Got 1.03 OTC to take Kenneth Walker

I feel like getting a round 2 RB gives me better odds at success than the WR's at 1.08 and the cost didn't feel too bad since I was a playoff team last year and should be in that range again this year.

12 team sf but my rebuild orphan

Gave  Pollard and 2.03 OTC, adp best player was Spiller, Willis, and D Pierce

Got a 23 1st

Not a lot of assets on this team to get future 1sts so happy to get at least one extra first next year.

 
10 team PPR SF, not involved

Team A sends: DJ Moore, 2023 1st (probably late)

Team B sends: Stefon Diggs, Tony Pollard

edited w/clarification of when the pick will be, read teams wrong way round
Yeah Moore and the 1st for me, Diggs will probably out produce Moore but not by that much and getting a 23 1st for Pollard is nice.

 

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