JohnnyU
Footballguy
Big boy trade.
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****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (24 Viewers)
- Thread starter Gottabesweet
- Start date
Twenty-Four Eighty-Four
Footballguy
Truth. Which side do you like? Tough to give up all those picks but to really sure up a win now roster, might not be a bad idea.
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eighsse2
Footballguy
I don't do SF, but really gotta like the picks side.
Twenty-Four Eighty-Four
Footballguy
Yeah, if you don't do SF it's tough to value a trade with so many QBs involved.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I kind of like the picks / Lawrence side.
Enzo....the Baker
Footballguy
Not involved, superflex
1.1, Wandale Robinson
1.10, Tee Higgins
1.1, Wandale Robinson
1.10, Tee Higgins
eighsse2
Footballguy
Again, I don't do superflex, but man I really would want that 1.01.
heckmanm
Footballguy
So we held our rookie lottery, and the pick I got for Hockenson ended up being 1.01 - about a 12% chance of getting #1 from the 3rd seed.
So I traded 3 years of Hock for 6 years of Bijan Robinson
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
What a score. Congrats!So we held our rookie lottery, and the pick I got for Hockenson ended up being 1.01 - about a 12% chance of getting #1 from the 3rd seed.
So I traded 3 years of Hock for 6 years of Bijan Robinson
heckmanm
Footballguy
The guy who traded me that pick had the top seed in the lottery (~31%) with his own pick, and drew 1.02. So if he hadn't traded for Hock he'd be sitting with 1.01 and 1.02. I think he was SURE his top seed would stay at 1.01 and that's why he traded the 3rd seed.What a score. Congrats!So we held our rookie lottery, and the pick I got for Hockenson ended up being 1.01 - about a 12% chance of getting #1 from the 3rd seed.
So I traded 3 years of Hock for 6 years of Bijan Robinson
(If anyone cares, it's an 8-team weighted lottery based on seed-squared. So the worst team gets 64 chances, then 49, 36, etc down to 1 chance for the 8th seed. There are a total of just over 200 virtual ping-pong balls.)
Boston
Footballguy
The most interesting thing is how does Wandale become part of this...I am a big Higgins guy, but I would definitely do that for the 1.1...I think the guy dealing the 1.1 should also be receiving another draft pick or useful player...this year the 1.10 is a bit of a mystery pick and while it is valuable it doesn't move the needle enough for me to be dealing 1.1.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I love seeing quirky formats like this. You basically got the Patrick Ewing refrigerated envelope.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Well, I came damn close to getting Herbert, but owner was a chargers fan, so I couldn’t land that plane.
Then I was trying for TLaw, and owner wasn’t biting, but he had JJ, AJB, Waddle, DSmith, Watson, GWilson, etc at WR - and said he needs RB so…I suggested he could use the picks to get a RB & he was down.
12 team, SF PPR, my rebuild continues:
I gave: pick 1.03, pick 1.08
I received: A.J. Brown
I’d asked for 2.12 back, but he countered and I’d rather overpay by a bit than not get a deal done.
Now my WR corps is AJB, ARSB, Higgins, Bateman, & GDavis
Feels good. Feels real good. I still have 1.01 and 1.02
Gonna try to get a QB with 1.02 + other stuff on draft day, and if I can’t get it done I’ll go Bijan -> QB in the draft.
Then I was trying for TLaw, and owner wasn’t biting, but he had JJ, AJB, Waddle, DSmith, Watson, GWilson, etc at WR - and said he needs RB so…I suggested he could use the picks to get a RB & he was down.
12 team, SF PPR, my rebuild continues:
I gave: pick 1.03, pick 1.08
I received: A.J. Brown
I’d asked for 2.12 back, but he countered and I’d rather overpay by a bit than not get a deal done.
Now my WR corps is AJB, ARSB, Higgins, Bateman, & GDavis
Feels good. Feels real good. I still have 1.01 and 1.02
Gonna try to get a QB with 1.02 + other stuff on draft day, and if I can’t get it done I’ll go Bijan -> QB in the draft.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Rather have Bijan
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Superflex, I would think the picks are worth a lot more than Brown. Seems pick 3 alone and Brown are even, no?
Boston
Footballguy
Since you have 1.1 and 1.2 I really like this trade...if you are gonna acquire a young stud like AJB you gotta pay up but this is a wise use of your assets because you get a definite to go along with the rookies you get at 1.1 and 1.2.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
No. AJB is worth more than 1.03
It’s maybe a 15-20% overpay. I’m ok with it. This dude had a monopoly on WRs. I couldn’t get any anywhere else. No way 1.03 alone gets it done.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I'd be interested to see some superflex ADP
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Thanks. I went from having seven picks in the first 13 to having just those two… But I also ended up with Justin Fields and Rashad Bateman in addition to my new number one wide receiver, AJB. And now I don’t have to worry about taking a wide receiver in a draft that is not rich or deep with wide receivers.
I would’ve loved to have spent that 1.08 on Charbonnet, but there is no guarantee he would’ve been there at 8. Also, I have AJB miles ahead of any of the receivers in this draft.
My preference was to spend those picks or more on a quarterback… The problem is, there are only so many to trade for, and the folks in the league who have the elite ones with long-term value just aren’t selling.
So now I have to get lucky and pick the right QB at 1.02.
The biggest risk here is that I’ll now have Bijan Robinson, and Travis Etienne, with not a whole lot of depth behind them at running back. So I have to cross my fingers and hope that Mattison gets substantial playing time in Minnesota, or that I can pick up someone off of the free agent list midseason who can help .
Of course, I do have a 2024 2nd & a 2025 first that I could offer up for a running back as well.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
For wide receiver, I have the 1.03 worth roughly DK Metcalf in a one for one. I checked on that first, and the Metcalf Owner was not interested in moving him.
If he was, he said I would have had to pay 1.03 and a second (which I don’t have)
I like AJ Brown more than DK Metcalf.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Right now the FFPC ADP has pick 1.03 ahead of DK Metcalf in standard. So pick 3 will be worth even more in SF.
Dez
Footballguy
ADP FFPC SF
Rookie 1.01 = pick 11
AJ Brown = pick 18
Rookie 1.02 = pick 20
Rookie 1.03 = pick 26
DK Metcalf = pick 38
Rookie 1.08 = pick 67
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
That may be true, but please see in my post where that one team has like 8 elite wide receivers.
In that context, it cost more to get one when there are fewer available from other teams.
So in my situation, I had to pay what I had to pay. I did get his second best wide receiver behind Jefferson, but I agree it was an overpay.
It was definitely not an overpay by the 1.08.
As initially offered where I got the late second back, I thought it was
fair value. But again, I’m not going to let it deal fall through over a 2.12 when pursuing an elite player. Nothing I would get at 2.12 would justify letting that trade fail.It’s funny that so many people complain about trade calculators, but people look at rankings and value charts as gospel. The simple fact is the players are worth what people are selling them for. Like everything it is supply and demand, and players command what the market will bear. In my case, that was the 1.03 and 1.08.
And it made a lot of sense for my team build to pay it. I can more easily acquire an RB3 than I can an elite wide receiver.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
That makes no sense to me. If someone has a bunch of elite guys to the point where he has to bench 4 of them every week, that certainly doesn't scream for having to overpay for one of them
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Thanks for sharing that.
And it is worth noting that trades are a very different animal than ADP.
First, because “A” stands for “average” - so in some leagues, AJ Brown is going to go earlier than pick 18, in others maybe he goes later.
Secondly, the supply and demand economics that I mentioned above do not come in to play when drafting as compared to trading.
My trade partner and I agreed this was fair - that’s really all that mattered in this context.
But even if it’s an overpay (which again, I agree it is) why else would my trade partner make the deal? Dealing is for profit. He made a profit. I didn’t mind paying the tax to get a player I like a lot.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
In the pandemic there was a run on toilet paper.
The one store that had toilet paper charged more for it.
It’s one of the most basic concepts of economics. Just because he can’t start them doesn’t mean he can’t set the market value for a limited asset that he has more of than anyone else.
Supply & demand. Makes perfect sense to me.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Long term picks+TLaw
Short term, gimme Allen, with some risk of Eke, Cook, & Deebo expiring on your roster.
That said, having those four players could certainly bring home a ship before that happens, and with a little luck, you could then flip those players to get younger afterwards.
I actually really like both sides of the deal. Definitely a big boy trade.
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
12 team PPR. 1 QB league.
Start 1QB, 1RB, 1 WR, 1 TE, 3 flex (RB, WR, TE).
Gave: 1.06, C. Patterson
Received: 2024 1, 2, 3, D. Singletary
Start 1QB, 1RB, 1 WR, 1 TE, 3 flex (RB, WR, TE).
Gave: 1.06, C. Patterson
Received: 2024 1, 2, 3, D. Singletary
Tough to breakdown:
Allen equal to Tlaw + 24 1st + 24 2nd (even though their ADP is pretty close in startups, this is an actual trade from a league)
Carr worth a hair more than the 1.12
Ekeler + Deebo > 1.02 + 24 2nd
leaving a free Dalvin who's not worth much at the moment with his status up in the air. Maybe subtract that 2nd from the TLaw side and make it equal to Dalvin?
Seems pretty close, likely favors the players side on "value" but Ekeler & Cook are not long for this world most likely. Hit on say Young at 1.02 plus TLaw and you are positioned pretty dang well for years to come. I'd look to try to package that 1.12 into a '24 pick if I could as a next step.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
That’s some kind of return on the 1.06 + Patterson. Any idea what the 24 range is projected to be?
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Actually no.
It's more like a company having too much supply and not enough demand.
He can only start half his stud WRs.
rockaction
Footballguy
Actually, yes. If he has a monopoly on top receivers, he sets the price.
Quick Google:
Who has the price setting power in a monopoly?
A monopoly price is set by a monopoly. A monopoly occurs when a firm lacks any viable competition and is the sole producer of the industry's product. Because a monopoly faces no competition, it has absolute market power and can set a price above the firm's marginal cost.
eighsse2
Footballguy
I can see both sides of that, and I'm not sure which one makes more sense. The point of having a monopoly is to charge premium because there's no alternative. Then again, it's not a true monopoly, but if have a large portion of the top receivers locked up, they could probably draw a premium. But to ghostguy123's point, it should in theory make that same owner hold those WR's more loosely since he has little need for them. I think the ball kind of ends up in his court to decide. He doesn't have full monopoly power ... but somewhat.
Agree completely. The person with the asset has the leverage. The other party is going to benefit by adding the player so the return has to compensate the trading away team adequately, in their eyes. I’ll take a player scoring on my bench rather than in my opponent’s lineup. Best trades should be win-win for the two teams involved and a L for the rest of the league.
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
He is very middle of the pack. I suspect he squeaks into the playoffs. So mid/late
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
It’s a 12 team dynasty PPR league. Literally the entire league wants his elite WRs
How is there possibly no demand?
eighsse2
Footballguy
Yeah that's true, I didn't catch that error before. Demand is through the roof.It’s a 12 team dynasty PPR league. Literally the entire league wants his elite WRs
How is there possibly no demand?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
At the same time, those players also have inherent value.
Any trade calc or value chart will tell you that.
all told, he had JJ, AJB, Waddle, C. Watson, G. Wilson, Drake London, D.Smith, JuJu, Toney, Wandale, Pierce, & Jameson Williams. Just an embarrassment of riches.
while true he can’t start them all, their value is intrinsic. He can choose to sell or not though, and he sets the market.
No other team has WRs to spare. As it stands, I feel fortunate I didn’t have to pay more.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Perfectly said.
And especially the part where the compensation has to be worth it to the team selling - why sell at a break even price?
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Seems like he has a surplus, not a monopoly
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I agree, by technical definition, that is correctly stated.
However, along with his surplus, 11 other teams face a shortage.
Since there is no WR store selling what everyone needs and 1 team has a surplus of, for all intents and purposes, that team has a monopoly.
Supply & demand. The single seller can set the market.
ETA: My only advantage / position of strength was that I had something of a monopoly on 1st round picks. I was the only team with more than 1, and the only team selling them.
This is how the trade was executed without my having to pay even more.
And I would pay it again in a heartbeat. No ragerts.
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eighsse2
Footballguy
When Rockefeller had a monopoly on oil, he had a surplus too, in the sense that he would never be able to use all the oil himself. Doesn't mean he would sell it at a discount.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Ummmm, remember COVID? Oil companies were paying people to take the oil.
rockaction
Footballguy
Spot on. Having a surplus like that in a monopolistic competition market doesn't really reflect in downward falling prices.
eighsse2
Footballguy
That's true but that is because there was an actual overall surplus (or I assume that was the reason, I honestly don't have enough understanding to know why that happened, but I assume there was a surplus). But one guy having a personal surplus is not the same as a nation or the world having an overall surplus.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yes, because no one was driving during the pandemic. So there was no demand.
So to continue this Ill-fitting analogy, in my 12-team PPR dynasty league, literally every team is driving. There was no event to cause the fuel (WR) to not be in demand.
11 teams are trying to go 75 mph, but due to lack of supply, they’re stuck going 35 mph with their 2nd tier combustible liquids.
I just paid for high octane premium unleaded, and I now have the 2nd best group of starting WR in the league as a result. My car can do 90 without blowing out the rings.
This ends this analogy.
eighsse2
Footballguy
But again. What ghostguy is saying is totally sensible, if the guy with the surplus chooses, he could say, for instance, "screw it, I'm loaded at this position, here I'll sell you Wilson at 80% value because I really need a RB." He can do that and that wouldn't be stupid if he were needy at a position. But he at least likely has power to overcharge if he chooses.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Of course he can.
But he doesn’t *need* to slash prices. That’s the key difference.
He can certainly choose to do so, and like me overpaying a bit for AJB to fit my build, he can choose to undersell an WR asset if it nets him the RB asset he needs for his build. that’s just him overpaying just like I did.
And sometimes that’s necessary, since all players don’t have the same value and sometimes things have to be a little imbalanced to get them done.
But unlike a surplus of oil, the fact that he has a surplus does not in any way harm the value of those WRs. 11 other teams still want them. The demand never waned.
In the oil surplus scenario, the lack of demand is the factor that limits the value of the oil.
In the WR surplus scenario the demand is constant despite the assets being concentrated to one owner.
That’s why it’s an ill-fitting analogy, IMO.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
The rest of the owners could also think "hey, he has all the great WRs but he is weak other places. I don't want to create a super team. I'll just let all that value rot away on his bench".
If three teams trade with him, he'll be a super team.
If nobody's trades with him, he won't be any better than the other teams.
If three teams trade with him, he'll be a super team.
If nobody's trades with him, he won't be any better than the other teams.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
This will never happen in any sort of competitive format.
The other teams will trade with him because they all need WRs.
It’s a start 10 format, where up to 6 can start on a team. (No K, no D/ST)
It’s also PPR.
Also, what you describe would be collusion, technically speaking, if organized.
It would just be dumb even if it weren’t, because again, barring injury, other teams will always want those assets.
This is starting to veer off the road to the bizarre, so I’ll leave y’all to it. I don’t think I’m capable of making it any more clear so I’ll bow out.
Cheers.
