Official Eleven Pick Thread (1 Viewer)

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Pretty self explanatory. Just found out I gotthe 11 pick in a 1 team redraft. Done a couple mocks and I kinda like the WR WR RB RB strategy here, as you are kind of left reachin g for a back if you go RB at 1.11 and 2.2 anyway, whereas you can all but lock up 2 of the following WR's Megatron, AJ, Roddy, Nicks

when I do this I in mock I have gotten rb tandems of greene/lynch/grant/blount etc as my rb1/rb2.

Would also consider Vick depending on scoring at either the first picks (as he'll be gone before 3.11 obviously.

depending on value I have gone TE at 4.2 (if finley/gates still on board) But there is so much value avail in the mid tiers TE's IMO.

 

[Anonymous Internet User]

scoring makes a huge difference here.

personally, i'd go RB/RB at the 11 spot if i could snag a combination of McFadden/Mendenhall/Gore/Forte/SJax or similar backs - especially in PPR. there's no shortage of solid WR options at the 3/4 turn.

 

[eakfootball]

If I have one of the last 2-3 picks I will not take a RB in the first two rounds unless someone really falls. I think going something like Calvin and Fitz is the best option. If Calvin and Andre are both gone by 11 then I would go QB first then grab a receiver like Fitz or Roddy in the 2nd.

 

[Anonymous Internet User]

If I have one of the last 2-3 picks I will not take a RB in the first two rounds unless someone really falls. I think going something like Calvin and Fitz is the best option. If Calvin and Andre are both gone by 11 then I would go QB first then grab a receiver like Fitz or Roddy in the 2nd.

so you would be more comfortable with a hypothetical squad of Calvin/Fitz/Blount/Best vs McFadden/Gore/D.Jackson/Marshall ?

 

[Air Stich]

I don't like the idea of passing on at least 1 RB in the 1st two rounds this year. By the end of the 3rd round, there is a likely chance that Blount, Bradshaw, Greene, and Matthews will all be gone. At that point, I guess you reach on a Deangelo, Knowshon, Grant, or Best type as your RB1.

I think you need to talk yourself into one of these guys:

McFadden, Gore, Forte, MJD, Hillis, SJax, or Turner. One of this group will surely finish in the top 7 RBs and you can get him in the 2nd round. I'm starting to warm up to Forte and I'm thinking of pairing him with Calvin from the 9th spot. I have the ability to trade picks in my league, so I'm trying to move down in the 2nd and up in the 3rd to guarantee one of the RBs that I listed above.

Calvin, Forte, Bradshaw seems like a decent start from the back end of a PPR draft. Then grab Dez to start the 4th and you've got a balanced core.

 

[LOCO]

With 11 getting a rb. (McFadden,McCoy) would be ideal followed with a stud wr. In the 3rd round reach for DEz Bryant followed by qb

McFadden

Fitzgerald

DEz

Romo

Than build your rb2 w wells addai lynch types

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

wow sp much value at rb deep in this draft. I'll post the mck I just did, but was amazed at the quality starters avail late (4th-9th round) at B

 

[Pumpnick]

Just finished a FBG/FFPC $350 league drafting from the 11th spot(PPR, 1.5 PPR TE, 2 Flex)

first 10 picks..

1.11- McFadden

2.2- Fitz

3.11- Bowe

4.2- Witten

5.11- Lynch

6.2- Holmes

7.11- RWilliams

8.2- Stafford

9.11- Moore

10.2- Keller

Will wind up starting holmes and keller/moore as my flex week 1 most likely. I'm high on Stafford. I could have gotten brady, rivers, or romo in round 6 and selected Stafford over Ryan on the 7/8 turn.

 

[montana_grizzly_bears]

Just did a mock from the 11 spot. Went Fitz and White with my first two picks (AJ went at 9, CJ went 12). 3/4 went with Blount and DWilliams (Bradshaw went at 3-9). FJones, Matthews, and Best were still on the board at that point also. Think I did fairly well. Roster ended up being:

Roethlisberger(5-11)

Blount(3-11)

DWilliams(4-2)

Fitzgerald(1-11)

White(2-2)

Lloyd(6-2)

Winslow(8-2)

JStewart(7-11)

Not going to post the rest but those are the important ones. Fairly active mock too. had 7 of the 12 mockers involved in conversation up until the 9th round.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

I don't like the idea of passing on at least 1 RB in the 1st two rounds this year. By the end of the 3rd round, there is a likely chance that Blount, Bradshaw, Greene, and Matthews will all be gone. At that point, I guess you reach on a Deangelo, Knowshon, Grant, or Best type as your RB1.

I think you need to talk yourself into one of these guys:

McFadden, Gore, Forte, MJD, Hillis, SJax, or Turner. One of this group will surely finish in the top 7 RBs and you can get him in the 2nd round. I'm starting to warm up to Forte and I'm thinking of pairing him with Calvin from the 9th spot. I have the ability to trade picks in my league, so I'm trying to move down in the 2nd and up in the 3rd to guarantee one of the RBs that I listed above.

Calvin, Forte, Bradshaw seems like a decent start from the back end of a PPR draft. Then grab Dez to start the 4th and you've got a balanced core.

in every mock ive done the guys you list were available in the 4th round

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

If I have one of the last 2-3 picks I will not take a RB in the first two rounds unless someone really falls. I think going something like Calvin and Fitz is the best option. If Calvin and Andre are both gone by 11 then I would go QB first then grab a receiver like Fitz or Roddy in the 2nd.

so you would be more comfortable with a hypothetical squad of Calvin/Fitz/Blount/Best vs McFadden/Gore/D.Jackson/Marshall ?

yes (even though i don't think you can get gore there, so in my head i sub steven jackson)the uber stud WR's are more stable than the rb1's avail at that slot. I was even hesitant on mcfadden before the orbital injury.not only that but each wr1 i listed should see an uptick in #'s/has a better situation this yr, whereas the rb1 lites all have some very real ? marks...

 

[eakfootball]

If I have one of the last 2-3 picks I will not take a RB in the first two rounds unless someone really falls. I think going something like Calvin and Fitz is the best option. If Calvin and Andre are both gone by 11 then I would go QB first then grab a receiver like Fitz or Roddy in the 2nd.

so you would be more comfortable with a hypothetical squad of Calvin/Fitz/Blount/Best vs McFadden/Gore/D.Jackson/Marshall ?

I think the RBs would be more like Brandshaw and Greene, and then absolutely yes if it's ppr.

 

[Pumpnick]

I don't like the idea of passing on at least 1 RB in the 1st two rounds this year. By the end of the 3rd round, there is a likely chance that Blount, Bradshaw, Greene, and Matthews will all be gone. At that point, I guess you reach on a Deangelo, Knowshon, Grant, or Best type as your RB1.

I think you need to talk yourself into one of these guys:

McFadden, Gore, Forte, MJD, Hillis, SJax, or Turner. One of this group will surely finish in the top 7 RBs and you can get him in the 2nd round. I'm starting to warm up to Forte and I'm thinking of pairing him with Calvin from the 9th spot. I have the ability to trade picks in my league, so I'm trying to move down in the 2nd and up in the 3rd to guarantee one of the RBs that I listed above.

Calvin, Forte, Bradshaw seems like a decent start from the back end of a PPR draft. Then grab Dez to start the 4th and you've got a balanced core.

in every mock ive done the guys you list were available in the 4th round

Only Blount was still there at 3.11 in my fbg league. (Bradshaw 2.10, Mathews 2.12, Best 3.3, Greene 3.7, Moreno 3.8,). Ingram, Blount, FJones, Benson, FJackson all went in the 4th.

 

[Ace08]

Great thread.

I'm in a similar situation in one of my leagues this year. I'll say this...I'm 2 spots ahead of you at #9 in my league and I'm definitely liking what I see from the mocks when I got WR-Wr with the first 2 picks. I'm about 90% sure at this point that I'm taking either Andre or Calvin at #9...what I do on the way back in the 2nd round will be dependent on whether or not Mcfadden or Gore make it back (knowing the guys in my league neither will, in which case I'll likely go Fitz there.

I've mocked the hell out of the position on 3 different sites just to try to eliminate the inherent bias caused by standardized drafting lists on each site. On a CONSISTENT basis I'm seeing all of the following guys being available at BOTH my 3rd and 4th round picks...

S Greene

Bradshaw

Blount

Felix Jones

Ingram

Best

Factor in here as well that more than 70% of the time guys like Lynch and Wells are still there on the next 5-6 turn.

Bottom line...I'm seeing alot of value and depth at running back in the middle rounds this year. To me all of those guys above have a good amount of upside and none of them need any sort of miracle for things to pan out. The only one that is iffy is probably Best....but in PPR his upside is significant.

Curious to hear more debate on this topic. FWIW I'm not high on Moreno, Matthews, or Fred Jackson so I excluded them from the list above. If you happen to like any of them you can add those as well since the majority of 3 are available in this range as well.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

I don't like the idea of passing on at least 1 RB in the 1st two rounds this year. By the end of the 3rd round, there is a likely chance that Blount, Bradshaw, Greene, and Matthews will all be gone. At that point, I guess you reach on a Deangelo, Knowshon, Grant, or Best type as your RB1.

I think you need to talk yourself into one of these guys:

McFadden, Gore, Forte, MJD, Hillis, SJax, or Turner. One of this group will surely finish in the top 7 RBs and you can get him in the 2nd round. I'm starting to warm up to Forte and I'm thinking of pairing him with Calvin from the 9th spot. I have the ability to trade picks in my league, so I'm trying to move down in the 2nd and up in the 3rd to guarantee one of the RBs that I listed above.

Calvin, Forte, Bradshaw seems like a decent start from the back end of a PPR draft. Then grab Dez to start the 4th and you've got a balanced core.

in every mock ive done the guys you list were available in the 4th round

Only Blount was still there at 3.11 in my fbg league. (Bradshaw 2.10, Mathews 2.12, Best 3.3, Greene 3.7, Moreno 3.8,). Ingram, Blount, FJones, Benson, FJackson all went in the 4th.

in fairness these are cbs sportsline mocks. so 1. the pool is dumber. 2. the draft is somewhat affected/shaped by how they rate players to start. I am going to try mocking a few places to try and remove this variable;e, though all 3 of my leagues draft on the site

 

[eakfootball]

I don't like the idea of passing on at least 1 RB in the 1st two rounds this year. By the end of the 3rd round, there is a likely chance that Blount, Bradshaw, Greene, and Matthews will all be gone. At that point, I guess you reach on a Deangelo, Knowshon, Grant, or Best type as your RB1.

I think you need to talk yourself into one of these guys:

McFadden, Gore, Forte, MJD, Hillis, SJax, or Turner. One of this group will surely finish in the top 7 RBs and you can get him in the 2nd round. I'm starting to warm up to Forte and I'm thinking of pairing him with Calvin from the 9th spot. I have the ability to trade picks in my league, so I'm trying to move down in the 2nd and up in the 3rd to guarantee one of the RBs that I listed above.

Calvin, Forte, Bradshaw seems like a decent start from the back end of a PPR draft. Then grab Dez to start the 4th and you've got a balanced core.

in every mock ive done the guys you list were available in the 4th round

Only Blount was still there at 3.11 in my fbg league. (Bradshaw 2.10, Mathews 2.12, Best 3.3, Greene 3.7, Moreno 3.8,). Ingram, Blount, FJones, Benson, FJackson all went in the 4th.

According to FBG ADP Bradsahaw's ADP is 3.5, Mathew's 3.7, Best's 3.12, Blount's 4.4, Greene's 4.6, DeAngelo's 4.10, and Moreno's 5.1.

 

[kutta]

I'm considering going RB/WR in this spot in my PPR league this year, assuming the usual suspects are available. The main reason is flexibility. I want to have as many options open to me at the 3/4 turn as possible, in case some value falls my way. If I go WR/WR or RB/RB at 1/2, it is pretty tough to draft one of those at the 3/4 turn, even if they are a great value.

No matter what happens, the two guys you get at 1/2 are going to be very good, so I don't think it's worth the pigeon-hole on the 3/4 to go WR/WR or RB/RB at 1/2.

 

[koreansteve]

I'm drafting from the 1.11 spot in a 14-team, non-ppr league (so my analysis will be biased towards that) and I'll echo the concerns of those that worry about the RBs left at the 3/4 turn...especially since my league (and I think most) have a flex option (RB/WR/TE).

I love the value of 2 of the top WRs in the first 2 rounds, but when i look at Greene, Mathews, Blount, Bradshaw off the board by 3.11...i'm left with Moreno, DWill, Best, Grant, Green-Ellis (honestly, i have a lot of reservations about Greene and Mathews based on last year and reports from camp). I'm just not comfortable with those guys at my RB1.

My 2 strategies (feel free to critique):

WR/RB

Pick up a top 3 WR in round 1, then pickup SJAX, Forte, Turner, Gore, McFadden in round 2. DWill or Best or Grant (greene, blount, bradshaw if they fall) as my RB2 makes me feel much more comfortable. WR2 like Dez, Maclin, Marshall, Holmes, etc in the 4th means you have a slightly stronger WR corps than RB corps and are off to a decent start through 4 rounds.

RB/RB

Target McFadden or Turner or MJD in Round 1 (or Mendenhall/McCoy if they fall). Then SJAX, Forte, Gore in Round 2. Then at the 3/4 turn you pick up 2 WRs (or if a bradshaw or blount-type falls, you scoop him up as your flex play). Pick 2 from - Dez, Maclin, Mike Williams, Holmes, Lloyd (and maybe Marshall) - and I'd be happy with my WRs. Especially with guys you could target like JFord, 85, Britt, AJ/JJ, SMoss, etc later on. I like this strategy for a few reasons. With the way the RBs are falling, it seems like your RB1 is a bit of a 'swing for the fences' option with great upside, while your RB2 (at least SJAX and Forte) are high floor guys that will likely put up RB8-12 numbers for you. At WR, you get the option to pick 2 solid WRs you expect to have 1000 yds each (almost all projected to) + 5-8 TDs on the year.

Perhaps I'm a bit 'old-school' and the league is not ppr, but the lack of RB talent (esp in a 14 team league by pick 3.11) concerns me.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

does a backfield of any 2 of these greene/lynch/grant/benson/moreno/deangelo/ really worry anyone, especially when it means it's getting paired with clavin/roddyandre/fitzgerald/nicks ?

But I can see some concern in some leagues that are really RB heavy early on, but even then getting grant/lynch as a worst case scenario at 3/4 if ALL the other backs are gone doesn't seem so bad really.

 

[mdlane]

does a backfield of any 2 of these greene/lynch/grant/benson/moreno/deangelo/ really worry anyone, especially when it means it's getting paired with clavin/roddyandre/fitzgerald/nicks ? But I can see some concern in some leagues that are really RB heavy early on, but even then getting grant/lynch as a worst case scenario at 3/4 if ALL the other backs are gone doesn't seem so bad really.

Honestly, it does worry me, though all of my leagues are .5 PPR and start 2 RB/2 WR/flex. I am hoping that one of Mendenhall/Vick/Gore fall to me at 1.11 (in that order). Gore was a top-5 pick last year, and nothing has changed for this year except by all accounts coming out of training camp, the offensive approach is improving (I am a local and keep tabs on the Niners training camp on an almost hourly basis ). The only reason why I wouldn't take Gore at 1.11 is if Mendenhall slipped to 1.11 because Mendenhall is obviously younger and in just as good a situation as Gore - and there's actually a chance that Gore will come around to 2.2. Gore this year feels even better than Gore in 2009, when he slipped too far in the first round (although he was injured that year, he came back strong for playoff time and won people some leagues). Mendenhall even feels a little undervalued to me.My theory is that if I have a shot at getting a back with a reasonable chance at top-3 production, or a QB that may have a historic season, I am going to take it. In my experience, WRs within the same tier are almost interchangeable assets and their production is relatively inconsistent and not something I can rely on from week to week. If I go with the second option in your above scenario, I am basically praying I hit on a "out of nowhere" waiver wire RB because I just don't think any of the guys you listed are going to win me my leagues.ETA: Maybe I'm just a huge homer, I don't know, but I will always consider Gore an excellent first round pick until the wheels have clearly come off and there is a better RB on the Niners' roster (they haven't and there isn't).

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

does a backfield of any 2 of these greene/lynch/grant/benson/moreno/deangelo/ really worry anyone, especially when it means it's getting paired with clavin/roddyandre/fitzgerald/nicks ? But I can see some concern in some leagues that are really RB heavy early on, but even then getting grant/lynch as a worst case scenario at 3/4 if ALL the other backs are gone doesn't seem so bad really.

Honestly, it does worry me, though all of my leagues are .5 PPR and start 2 RB/2 WR/flex. I am hoping that one of Mendenhall/Vick/Gore fall to me at 1.11 (in that order). Gore was a top-5 pick last year, and nothing has changed for this year except by all accounts coming out of training camp, the offensive approach is improving (I am a local and keep tabs on the Niners training camp on an almost hourly basis ). The only reason why I wouldn't take Gore at 1.11 is if Mendenhall slipped to 1.11 because Mendenhall is obviously younger and in just as good a situation as Gore - and there's actually a chance that Gore will come around to 2.2. Gore this year feels even better than Gore in 2009, when he slipped too far in the first round (although he was injured that year, he came back strong for playoff time and won people some leagues). Mendenhall even feels a little undervalued to me.My theory is that if I have a shot at getting a back with a reasonable chance at top-3 production, or a QB that may have a historic season, I am going to take it. In my experience, WRs within the same tier are almost interchangeable assets and their production is relatively inconsistent and not something I can rely on from week to week. If I go with the second option in your above scenario, I am basically praying I hit on a "out of nowhere" waiver wire RB because I just don't think any of the guys you listed are going to win me my leagues.ETA: Maybe I'm just a huge homer, I don't know, but I will always consider Gore an excellent first round pick until the wheels have clearly come off and there is a better RB on the Niners' roster (they haven't and there isn't).

my league is 2 rb 3 wr no flex, so i guess that could change things a bit.

 

[bigmiiiiike]

I'm drafting from the 1.11 spot in a 14-team, non-ppr league (so my analysis will be biased towards that) and I'll echo the concerns of those that worry about the RBs left at the 3/4 turn...especially since my league (and I think most) have a flex option (RB/WR/TE).

I love the value of 2 of the top WRs in the first 2 rounds, but when i look at Greene, Mathews, Blount, Bradshaw off the board by 3.11...i'm left with Moreno, DWill, Best, Grant, Green-Ellis (honestly, i have a lot of reservations about Greene and Mathews based on last year and reports from camp). I'm just not comfortable with those guys at my RB1.

My 2 strategies (feel free to critique):

WR/RB

Pick up a top 3 WR in round 1, then pickup SJAX, Forte, Turner, Gore, McFadden in round 2. DWill or Best or Grant (greene, blount, bradshaw if they fall) as my RB2 makes me feel much more comfortable. WR2 like Dez, Maclin, Marshall, Holmes, etc in the 4th means you have a slightly stronger WR corps than RB corps and are off to a decent start through 4 rounds.

RB/RB

Target McFadden or Turner or MJD in Round 1 (or Mendenhall/McCoy if they fall). Then SJAX, Forte, Gore in Round 2. Then at the 3/4 turn you pick up 2 WRs (or if a bradshaw or blount-type falls, you scoop him up as your flex play). Pick 2 from - Dez, Maclin, Mike Williams, Holmes, Lloyd (and maybe Marshall) - and I'd be happy with my WRs. Especially with guys you could target like JFord, 85, Britt, AJ/JJ, SMoss, etc later on. I like this strategy for a few reasons. With the way the RBs are falling, it seems like your RB1 is a bit of a 'swing for the fences' option with great upside, while your RB2 (at least SJAX and Forte) are high floor guys that will likely put up RB8-12 numbers for you. At WR, you get the option to pick 2 solid WRs you expect to have 1000 yds each (almost all projected to) + 5-8 TDs on the year.

Perhaps I'm a bit 'old-school' and the league is not ppr, but the lack of RB talent (esp in a 14 team league by pick 3.11) concerns me.

I'm in a 12 team nonppr league, and very likely will be going RB/RB in rounds 1 and 2, there is just too big a drop off at RB after the first 20-25 guys are off the board. My league also has a flex (to go with 2RB and 2WR mandatory starters), so even at the 3/4 turn you still have flexibility to go RB/WR or WR/WR.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

ripped this from the LHUCKS RB thread but it is the adp for PPR leagues. Like I have posited I wouldn't be suprised if many the guys listed from 37-70 (or evn higher with tollbert BJGE, spiller/jaqckson tandem, torrain, jacobs perre ingram/thomas tandem) outperformed the 11-31 picks. I really don't see nearly as big a drop off. Hell guys like Lynch, Moreno, Greene, Blount could easily end up top 10.

1 Arian Foster HOU RB 1 1 1 1 2

2 Adrian Peterson MIN RB 2 3 2 2 1

3 Chris Johnson TEN RB 3 2 3 3 3

4 Jamaal Charles KC RB 4 5 4 4 4

5 Ray Rice BAL RB 5 4 6 5 5 - softer schedule, low risk, high ceiling

6 LeSean McCoy PHI RB 6 6 5 7 7 - Eagels will lighten his load

9 Maurice Jones-Drew JAX RB 7 10 10 8 9 - leary until the knee is 100%

11 Darren McFadden OAK RB 8 16 11 9 13 - should be going higher

13 Frank Gore SF RB 9 14 18 11 16 - hip fracture created value

15 Rashard Mendenhall PIT RB 10 19 14 13 10

17 Matt Forte CHI RB 11 20 16 15 20

19 Steven Jackson STL RB 12 17 21 17 17

22 Michael Turner ATL RB 13 26 26 18 15

24 Peyton Hillis CLE RB 14 32 22 19 22

28 Ryan Mathews SD RB 15 44 28 22 36 - starting to develop soft/lazy reputation

31 Ahmad Bradshaw NYG RB 16 33 33 29 32 - don't expect much to change

37 Jahvid Best DET RB 17 45 35 30 49

43 DeAngelo Williams CAR RB 18 42 52 37 39

46 LeGarrette Blount TB RB 19 71 42 33 35

47 Jonathan Stewart CAR RB 20 53 44 34 41

50 Shonn Greene NYJ RB 21 51 50 50 38

53 Knowshon Moreno DEN RB 22 55 54 45 47

54 Mark Ingram NO RB 23 49 48 44 52

61 Felix Jones DAL RB 24 72 59 63 61

62 Ryan Grant GB RB 25 68 76 61 60 - classic coming back from injury value

63 Daniel Thomas MIA RB 26 70 65 62 65

64 Cedric Benson CIN RB 27 76 67 65 57

65 Fred Jackson BUF RB 28 57 77 72 68

70 Marshawn Lynch SEA RB 29 75 69 77 71

75 Joseph Addai IND RB 30 77 80 73 73 - Carter will have job in second half

78 BenJarvus Green-Ellis NE RB 31 82 83 86 67

85 Mikel Leshoure DET RB 32 89 89 79 85

87 Ryan Torain WAS RB 33 84 97 91 80

89 C.J. Spiller BUF RB 34 107 79 88 97

92 Ryan Williams ARI RB 35 73 84 94 86 - both AZ backs preseent upside

93 Brandon Jacobs NYG RB 36 81 113 104 88

97 James Starks GB RB 37 119 92 95 99

98 Pierre Thomas NO RB 38 126 107 100 102

100 Mike Tolbert SD RB 39 106 110 97 96

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

I'm drafting from the 1.11 spot in a 14-team, non-ppr league (so my analysis will be biased towards that) and I'll echo the concerns of those that worry about the RBs left at the 3/4 turn...especially since my league (and I think most) have a flex option (RB/WR/TE).

I love the value of 2 of the top WRs in the first 2 rounds, but when i look at Greene, Mathews, Blount, Bradshaw off the board by 3.11...i'm left with Moreno, DWill, Best, Grant, Green-Ellis (honestly, i have a lot of reservations about Greene and Mathews based on last year and reports from camp). I'm just not comfortable with those guys at my RB1.

My 2 strategies (feel free to critique):

WR/RB

Pick up a top 3 WR in round 1, then pickup SJAX, Forte, Turner, Gore, McFadden in round 2. DWill or Best or Grant (greene, blount, bradshaw if they fall) as my RB2 makes me feel much more comfortable. WR2 like Dez, Maclin, Marshall, Holmes, etc in the 4th means you have a slightly stronger WR corps than RB corps and are off to a decent start through 4 rounds.

RB/RB

Target McFadden or Turner or MJD in Round 1 (or Mendenhall/McCoy if they fall). Then SJAX, Forte, Gore in Round 2. Then at the 3/4 turn you pick up 2 WRs (or if a bradshaw or blount-type falls, you scoop him up as your flex play). Pick 2 from - Dez, Maclin, Mike Williams, Holmes, Lloyd (and maybe Marshall) - and I'd be happy with my WRs. Especially with guys you could target like JFord, 85, Britt, AJ/JJ, SMoss, etc later on. I like this strategy for a few reasons. With the way the RBs are falling, it seems like your RB1 is a bit of a 'swing for the fences' option with great upside, while your RB2 (at least SJAX and Forte) are high floor guys that will likely put up RB8-12 numbers for you. At WR, you get the option to pick 2 solid WRs you expect to have 1000 yds each (almost all projected to) + 5-8 TDs on the year.

Perhaps I'm a bit 'old-school' and the league is not ppr, but the lack of RB talent (esp in a 14 team league by pick 3.11) concerns me.

I'm in a 12 team nonppr league, and very likely will be going RB/RB in rounds 1 and 2, there is just too big a drop off at RB after the first 20-25 guys are off the board. My league also has a flex (to go with 2RB and 2WR mandatory starters), so even at the 3/4 turn you still have flexibility to go RB/WR or WR/WR.

20 (jstew adp 47) - 25 (grant 62) would be our 5th and 6th round picks fwiw. Now those are PPR so a bit skewed, but not really far off.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

from upside down thread (though they were discussing 2qb leagues) i think much of the same principle applies

Hooquaker

I posted under Matt's article, but I believe the idea has merit, particularly if you are drafting out of 8 or later spot. Matt's article does specifically address a standard scoring, no flex lineup requirement, therefore you'd have to think a little harder to apply it to your particular league requirements. Nevertheless, I think the fundamental issue remains: do you trust the rounds 5-10 RBs to get it done for your team? In this particular drafting year, I personally do. Matt's article spelled out exactly who you'll likely see, but I think that if you have studs at the other positions - and you will, because of the RB runs having taken place - then you have to be ready to roll with guys from the group of: Ingram, Stewart, Benson, Grant, Lynch, F. Jones, F. Jackson, Addai, etc. IMO, Jackson and Lynch are enough to get it done.

Remember, you're not relying on these guys. They just have to keep close enough with your opponent's RB1/2 so that your QB, WR/WR, and TE can blow them out. This year, I think the ADPs fall in such a way that you can get decent RBs in the mid rounds. With all of the mocks that I've done, my best teams seem to be where I go WR/WR first, then pick the best QB/TE off of the board in rounds 3 and 4. I'm confident that Ingram, Benson, Lynch, and F. Jackson can approach what Blount, Moreno, Best and Greene might put up, and given the ADPs these are the rounds where you are getting your top 7 QB (usually Romo from what I've seen, but that's good enough, and sometimes one of the other top 6 does fall in round 3) and one of the top 4 TE(usually your pick of the litter besides Gates if you didn't get Gates in round 3), and most importantly let's not forget you probably are starting two of the top 6 WRs. This obviously changes a bit if you take a QB with your first two picks. I don't, because after numerous mocks, I have been happier with two stud WRs + Romo than I have been with one of the other QBs and the WR2 I get from rounds 3 or 4, but this will depend upon how you personally project the players (i.e. maybe you like Bowe or Lloyd (equivalent) enough to take Rodgers/Vick/Brady).

My only issue with this strategy is that you have to look carefully for your WR3. Because you are gambling on RBs, you will have to load up in the mid rounds to hedge your bets. Be on the lookout for your WR3 if value emerges.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

wildman chiimed in on an 11 pick ? in aonther thread. figured i'd post it here

Matt-

I am picking from the 11th spot this year, so your strategy makes sense.

Questions for you (picking 11th, standard scoring, non-PPR, qb/2rb/3wr/te/3IDP tackle heavy)

A.) WR3 seems to be a key position to address when using the upside down strategy. How do you address when to take one? I mix one in with the RB block between rounds 5-10 usually or I wait until round 6 for RBs, which ever you feel most comfortable doing

B.) It seems that selecting one of the top TE's is paramount to this strategy. How paramount is it? Can one still succeed with a Gronk or Graham? It would seem WR/WR/QB/RB going into the 5th makes for sense. Then TE/WR in the 5th/6th rounds. No? In the past it made more sense to go TE because in recent years the TE situation has been more stable at the top. Things are changing a bit with a number of TEs with high upside coming to the forefront. The problem is figuring out which ones. I'd prefer a safer pick at TE and either wait on the RB or QB (if a guy like Schaub or Romo is falling low enough). You can also succeed with a steady, but not spectacular QB like Ryan if he's still going around the spot he was last year.

C.) Also, if one needs to use the 5th-10th rounds say for collecting RB's, when is it best to begin picking IDP players? Would you consider picking them before the 10th? IDP changes things a lot because you're adding three positions that actually matter and aren't crapshoots like Team DEF and kicker. You'll need to keep mocking and work that out. I'd check your scoring on those IDPs to see where the values drop so you can determine a sound strategy.

While doing mocks, I run into the problem of needing to take IDP's in that 7th-8th round range, when I should be takin RB's.

Your thoughts. . .

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Can't do it. 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1RB/WR flex, non-ppr. interesting strategy, but for my league I have to load up on RBs

Why so? I have the same format and am highly considering going upside down. Only difference is that you have to account for the extra RB (flex) starting position. I'm considering going WR, WR/QB, RB, QB/WR. Waiting on the TE position.

That's my exact lineup as well - 6pt all TDs and 0.5 ppr thoughI have gone 3 WR and a QB through 5 round 3 straight years, and made title game in all 3. I typically go TE in those rounds, but sometimes a RB I like falls.

:

RBs get injured all the time. A core value to this strategy is just that: You don't need Hillis all year for this to work. You need Mike Goodson for a couple weeks, Rashad Jennings a week or two, some Marion Barber here or there, maybe a little Brandon Jacobs...I used Maurice Morris 3 games I think last year...Javarris James was useful.

You don't need a WW wonder of the year. I didn't have Vick, Foster, or Hillis. I did have three WR1s and a top QB...although he got hurt and I had Grossman and Tebow in playoffs.

The point is, all you gotta do is cobble together RB2 production. Start 3 elite wideouts, a solid RB at your first spot, elite TE/QB...and you just need to make the playoffs - where anything can happen.

Where are you getting a solid RB for RB1? If you're drafting "upside down" and going WR/WR/QB/TE/WR, or something...then you're just counting on getting lucky and hitting a solid RB in the midrounds...which is fine, but not really a strategy

I think I said I often end up with one RB in the top 5 rounds - but if not, then I get a RB2-3 type in the 6th ish.Every week, I am starting a WR1 as my WR1, WR2, and WR3/Flex. I start the QB1 as my QB1. I start a top 5 TE as my TE.

All of that is usually enough to get away with a RB2 as my RB1 and a RB3 as my RB2.

ETA: when I say solid, I just mean consistent. Say, Wells or Lynch this year. Not necessarily solid as in RB1 solid.

That's it. When I get to use this strategy, I tend to pick 3-4 top 15 WRs and a top TE. I may wind up with a low-end RB starter as my RB1 and bye week filler as my RB2 to begin the year. Usually doesn't matter. I tend to score very well, play the waiver wire, and find a strong RB1 or RB2. Or, I find that I have 4-5 top 24 WRs and a couple of good QBs so I trade for an RB. The nice part about this strategy is when executed well you can often build a surplus at a valuable position.

I think there are some points that a number of people are missing about the whole RB/WR turnover thing:

1. When I compare RBs and WRs, the traditional league starts more WRs than RBs. When you're drafting in the initial rounds in the middle or the end of the order you have a better pool or WRs to choose from than RBs. Since you have more WRs to play in your lineup, it makes more sense to go WR heavy because you're getting the same pick of the litter as your competition in the top half of the draft who gets the pick of the RBs.

2. Because there are more WRs to start that RBs in a lineup, missing on 1 of 2 RBs isn't as damaging if you have 3 strong WRs. I'd rather shoot the dice on a mid-to-late round RB than 2-3 mid-to-late WRs to fill my lineup. Just a matter of numbers.

 

[tommyGunZ]

I'm considering going RB/WR in this spot in my PPR league this year, assuming the usual suspects are available. The main reason is flexibility. I want to have as many options open to me at the 3/4 turn as possible, in case some value falls my way. If I go WR/WR or RB/RB at 1/2, it is pretty tough to draft one of those at the 3/4 turn, even if they are a great value. No matter what happens, the two guys you get at 1/2 are going to be very good, so I don't think it's worth the pigeon-hole on the 3/4 to go WR/WR or RB/RB at 1/2.

This is a very underrated approach IMO. Nothing worse than seeing value and not being able to grab it. How often have you gone RB/RB early and then when you get to the 3/4 turn you've just missed the WR run and there are at least one if not two RBs sitting there who shouldn't be? So you grab one and then reach for your first WR who you really don't like. Going WR early (at 11 or 14) allow you to have all your options for the 3/4 turn, but the top 3-4 WRs are far more bustproof.

 

[HooQuaker]

I already had a live draft with my long standing league picking 11 out of 14 teams, non PPR, no Flex, standard scoring. Prior to the draft I did upwards of 50 mocks with varying strategies. Most of my mocks were done at Fantasy Football Calculator. Part of what I say here might change due to ADP creep. I can only speak from experience, and as you all know, a 14 team draft spreads things even more thin. My final team was:

QB - Romo, Tebow (risky, I know)

WR - Calvin Johnson, Fitzgerald, MSW, Greg Little, S. Smith (NYG)

RB - DWill, Lynch, Addai, LeShoure (before the inury, so just think of an equivalent. For example, I could've had Wells or Williams here), Hardesty, Sproles

TE - Davis

I'm pretty happy with this team, particularly given that the talent is spread more thinly in a 14 team league. I have a Qb with top 5 potential. **TWO** WRs with #1 potential and very high floors (this is important). A TE with top 5 potential. A stable of backs who only need to get it done, and three of them have top 15 finishes in their history. When using this "upside down" strategy, it's pretty important to keep your eye on the WW for RB reinforcements. Guys like Torain and Blount, and to a smaller degree even Tashard Choice, Mike Tolbert, or Javarris James could've gotten it done for you here. The point is that when an RB goes down, the guy who gets inserted has a great shot at good fantasy production. This is not so much the case at WR due to the nature of the position. This is why, at pick #11 where you are no longer guaranteed a true stud RB, you should take high floor, bona fide WRs - or at least one.

I'm not sure there is any back that you can grab at 11 who will be #1 at the end of the season; maybe Mendenhall if he falls. Not only are the WRs at these picks candidates for #1, they have shown that they can still produce even under terrible circumstances. In other words, they won't fall off a cliff and tank your season if they "bust." They are studs. This is why I do not think it is a good idea to go RB/RB at 11 this year.

I also do not think it is a good idea to take a QB at either of those picks. This is personally because I really like Romo this year, but I have seen it happen in mocks where one of the top 6 actually falls to 3.11 (in a 14 team no less). Even if that doesn't happen, Romo is still a good investment for his ADP. I trust him to be a top 5 candidate at his position more than I trust any WR or RB (in particular!) available in those rounds to do the same. Teams picking 11 will not feel sorry for pulling the trigger on him, and he *will* be there for you in round 3 possibly 4. I'm not confident in any QB after him to have top 5 potential.

I like the mid round backs this year, and numerous mocks leave me with Lynch, Benson, and F. Jackson all the way into rounds 5 and 6. I personally am as confident in these guys as I am in Blount, Greene, or Best. I feel like you're playing with fire with the latter guys, paying dearly for upside, and you have to take them in rounds 3/4. Use those rounds to take more reliable players, even a top 5 TE. The only third round back I have pulled the trigger on was Bradshaw, but he fell maybe 1/4 of the time to 3.11 in a 14 team league.

Before summarizing, I must comment that in a 14 team league, one is far less likely to see anyone go x3 RB in the first 5 rounds. Because the talent is spread more thinly, there is more urgency to fill out the roster. What this means is you are punished less by waiting on RB, since people are less likely to go x3 RB early. Mileage will vary in 10 and 12 team drafts. The only way to know for sure is to mock, mock, mock - and don't always try the same thing. See what happens when you do something different.

In summary: I think the best strategies for this slot are WR/WR or RB/WR (or WR/RB). There is a reasonable (albeit not too large) possibility that a top 6 QB will fall to you at 3.11, but if not, Romo will be there. If you don't like Romo this year, then that changes things. In fact, I think that Romo is so important to this draft slot, that you really have to decide beforehand whether you like him or not and that might change everything for you. In case you couldnt' tell, I think he is undervalued at his ADP this year. If you do not get a WR in your first two picks, your WR1 will come from the Bowe/Maclin/Lloyd tier. Those guys are far more likely to plunge off a cliff than one of the top 5 WRs, and in the meantime, your RBS (Turner, Gore, Jackson, Forte, McFadden) do not do much to inspire me - why take two of them only to be stuck with the aforementioned group at WR1?

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

alternate perfect draft thread

Ok, I will give my alternate perfect draft and see how close it comes to what the experts say is the real perfect draft. Drafts are going on right now, so maybe this can help someone or not!

A few general thoughts on this years draft. There are several undervalued players that can be had in the later rounds at the TE and QB position, way more than usual. For that reason, don't jump too quick on those positions. I wouldn't have said that the past few years. Stock up on RB's and WR's in the early rounds while your teammates take the Rodgers and Gates.

Ok here we go. This is a 12 team ppr league with 18 roster spots and a flex position and 10 starters. Seems like lots of leagues have went this route.

Round 1-2-3

Your goal in the first three rounds are to get a RB1, WR1, WR2. If you draft in the top 10 picks go RB (take your pick of the top 10) then WR, WR the next two rounds. You could end up with a Jennings/Welker or Wayne/Marshall combo. If you draft in the last two or three spots you can take a WR like AJ, Fitz, White, or Calvin and still get Mendy, MJD, SJax, Turner, or even Forte in round 2. Then pick WR in round three. (DeSean, Bowe, and Mike Williams should still be there.) Probably 4 QB's will have been taken by now and possibly Gates. Those owners will be struggling to find a decent WR2. But you will still be able to grab a QB1 and TE1.

Round 4-5-6

These rounds are when the remaining top 4 QB's and elite TE's will fly off the board. Owners will be drafting Peyton, Rivers, Romo, and even Ben will be drafted. Four or five TE's will also be drafted in these rounds. Don't buy into the hype. Continue to take quality RB2's and a WR3. My goal in is to get two of these RB's in these three rounds. (Best, Blount, DWill, Greene, Moreno, Ingram, Felix, Grant, Lynch, and Addai) They will serve as your RB2 and RB3. A few of these guys are way undervalued in my book. (DWill, Ingram, Lynch, Addai) and one I am not sold on just yet. Felix Jones had his chance the last two years and did nothing with them, what has changed except that Barber is gone, and he has younger guys nipping at his heels. You also need to pick up your WR3 in the 6th at the latest. Guys like Collie, Garcon, Carolina S. Smith, AJ Green, S. Moss, Ocho would be great picks. All of these guys have the potential to put WR2 numbers.

So in conclusion you should have three RB's and three WR's after six rounds.

Now remember you don't want to start reaching for QB and TE just because everyone else in your league may already have one. That is what they are counting on you doing. There are some exceptions, but continue to take value.

Round 7

Ben will not be there, but if he is, take him. Otherwise grab another WR from you list above. ( Garcon, Carolina S. Smith, AJ Green, S. Moss, Ocho). Notice I didn't say anything about TE.

Round 8

Take Stafford if he is there. He is a potential top 10 guy if he stays healthy. Eli, Flacco, and Bradford are also options. If Stafford is not there I love Reggie Bush in this round. People have went from one extreme to the other with this guy. He was brought to Miami to be the main guy, who knows if he can do it or not. He could end up being a poor man's Marshall Faulk and in the 8th round that is a steal. He might even be available in the ninth. Look for him if you take a QB in round 8.

Round 9

If you have not taken a QB you need to jump early on the last potential top ten guy in my opinion. This guy is so undervalued it's not even funny. Jump on Kevin Kolb here if you took Bush in the last round. He might be available in the next round, but you can't take a chance on it. Even if you took Stafford, I like taking Kolb in a two QB combo with him.

Round 10

Take Kevin Kolb as your backup if available. If you have our QB's, take TE Winslow if he is here. Gronkowski and Pettigrew are also options, but I will probably wait if Winslow is not there. Danny Amendola and Braylon Edwards are two guys I like in this round also.

Round 11-12

Continue to look for value at WR and RB. LT and Hightower are two guys I like.

Round 13 – 14

Take two TE's if you have not taken one already. Hernandez and Gresham might be available. The two most undervalued guys will still be there also. Greg Olsen and Heath Miller are steals this late in the draft. Both have potential to be top 12 guys, especially Miller.

Round 15 thru 18

Take your sleepers and backup RB's to protect yourself. Always take a kicker in the last round. I would probably take my defense in 16th or 17th round.

Once again, Kolb, Reggie, Amendola, and Heath Miller are steals this year. Good luck!

 

[lazyike]

In many PPR drafts I see the following 6 RBs gone before 11th pick -Foster,AP,CJ,Charles,Rice,McCoy and 4 WRs-AJohnson,Ca Johnson,White and Fitz. The choice at 11 then becomes Mendenhall, and 4 RBs with durability concerns in Mcfadden, MJD, Jackson and Gore. Choices at WR are the often injured Nicks or the aging Wayne. I'm not liking the 11th pick unless someone grabs Mcfadden or Vick dropping a better WR or RB.

 

[Short Corner]

I'm considering going RB/WR in this spot in my PPR league this year, assuming the usual suspects are available. The main reason is flexibility. I want to have as many options open to me at the 3/4 turn as possible, in case some value falls my way. If I go WR/WR or RB/RB at 1/2, it is pretty tough to draft one of those at the 3/4 turn, even if they are a great value. No matter what happens, the two guys you get at 1/2 are going to be very good, so I don't think it's worth the pigeon-hole on the 3/4 to go WR/WR or RB/RB at 1/2.

This is my biggest worry. Although I am big proponent of WR-WR, it caused me to pass on Nicks later (last year) even though he had highest value, I had AJ-Calvin already.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

fwiw I disagree with podunkers take on reggie bush. I think thomas is the play there at great value.

 

[Ace08]

fwiw I disagree with podunkers take on reggie bush. I think thomas is the play there at great value.

For the record Hipple....I agree with almost everything you've said in this thread up until this post.I live in Miami, big phins fan. I've been to several of the practices and keep abreast of all the local talk.....I have absolutely no doubt in my mind that the guy to own here, in a ppr league, is Reggie Bush. They are going to throw the ball to him a TON...and believe it or not they like him on some early down carries as well.This is not to say he's going to get 15-20 carries a game...absolutely not. However when your back catches 5-7 passes plus couples that with about 10 carries...that can be a recipe for steady PPR production given Bush's skill set.Just my opinion....but I think people are making a mistake by ranking Thomas higher than Bush. Thomas is very much a "3 yards and a could of dust" kinda guy.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

fwiw I disagree with podunkers take on reggie bush. I think thomas is the play there at great value.

For the record Hipple....I agree with almost everything you've said in this thread up until this post.

I live in Miami, big phins fan. I've been to several of the practices and keep abreast of all the local talk.....I have absolutely no doubt in my mind that the guy to own here, in a ppr league, is Reggie Bush. They are going to throw the ball to him a TON...and believe it or not they like him on some early down carries as well.

This is not to say he's going to get 15-20 carries a game...absolutely not. However when your back catches 5-7 passes plus couples that with about 10 carries...that can be a recipe for steady PPR production given Bush's skill set.

Just my opinion....but I think people are making a mistake by ranking Thomas higher than Bush. Thomas is very much a "3 yards and a could of dust" kinda guy.

I dunno. We've seen what bush is. electric ST'r and 3db/COP runner. Bush is so 'miami' flash/brand name etc so I imagine that's what the buzz/fans want, but sparano likes to run a up the gut.and that seems to suit Thomas. With ricky/ronny gone I think that enough balls around for both...also saw this on SI fwiw

Daniel Thomas : In Position For Heavy WorkloadDespite the team's addition of Reggie Bush, the Palm Beach Post believes that Thomas, who averaged more than 20 carries a game and 5.2 yards per carry over his last two years at Kansas State, figures to be the workhorse of the Miami backfield.While coach Tony Sparano isn't passing out game plans, the report speculates that Bush isn't likely to get more than 10-12 carries a game, with some combo of Kory Sheets, Lex Hilliard and Nic Grigsby perhaps in the mix to a lesser degree. In any case, the key to Thomas' fantasy upside will be how the Dolphins' goal-line work is assigned and that's a gig he seems suited for at 6-foot, 230 pounds. http://sportsillustr...l#ixzz1UqOMzEea

 

[HooQuaker]

In many PPR drafts I see the following 6 RBs gone before 11th pick -Foster,AP,CJ,Charles,Rice,McCoy and 4 WRs-AJohnson,Ca Johnson,White and Fitz. The choice at 11 then becomes Mendenhall, and 4 RBs with durability concerns in Mcfadden, MJD, Jackson and Gore. Choices at WR are the often injured Nicks or the aging Wayne. I'm not liking the 11th pick unless someone grabs Mcfadden or Vick dropping a better WR or RB.

Wow. This is, in my opinion, the worst case scenario. Nevertheless, you have to prepare for it, and if I were staring this situation down, I would have to take Mendenhall here, even though he doesn't catch too many passes. This is because I think he represents the least risk here. It's likely you won't see Nicks on the way back in a 14 team league but perhaps in 12. I think you have to decide whether you like Nicks enough to target in round 2. I still don't think going RB/RB is the greatest choice drafting at 11 this year, but with all four of the top WRs gone by that pick - wow, you really ought to be ready for the worst. If you're in a 12 team league that means you could be starting 2 of Mendenhall + your pick of at least 2 if not 3 of the McFadden, MJD, Jackson, Gore group depending upon what 1.12 and 2.1 does. That's a good RB combo depending upon your appetite for risk (Gore/McFadden/MJD). All four of those guys catch a lot of balls out of the backfield, and you could (and probably should) add Forte to that conversation too. I guess it all depends upon your appetite for risk. If you are ready to go all in, then getting two from the McFadden, MJD, Jackson, Gore, and Forte group could work in PPR. If you are set on this, you'd be pushing Mendenhall further back, making him look more attractive to the team behind you, making it likely to get the other guys you might want.This is why mocks are good. What this situation means is that you have to think long and hard about Mendenhall. Research time!

 

[Rick James]

I don't like the idea of passing on at least 1 RB in the 1st two rounds this year. By the end of the 3rd round, there is a likely chance that Blount, Bradshaw, Greene, and Matthews will all be gone. At that point, I guess you reach on a Deangelo, Knowshon, Grant, or Best type as your RB1.I think you need to talk yourself into one of these guys:McFadden, Gore, Forte, MJD, Hillis, SJax, or Turner. One of this group will surely finish in the top 7 RBs and you can get him in the 2nd round. I'm starting to warm up to Forte and I'm thinking of pairing him with Calvin from the 9th spot. I have the ability to trade picks in my league, so I'm trying to move down in the 2nd and up in the 3rd to guarantee one of the RBs that I listed above.Calvin, Forte, Bradshaw seems like a decent start from the back end of a PPR draft. Then grab Dez to start the 4th and you've got a balanced core.

The idea of DWill, Grant, Best, Knowshon on the 3rd/4th makes me giddy.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

I don't like the idea of passing on at least 1 RB in the 1st two rounds this year. By the end of the 3rd round, there is a likely chance that Blount, Bradshaw, Greene, and Matthews will all be gone. At that point, I guess you reach on a Deangelo, Knowshon, Grant, or Best type as your RB1.I think you need to talk yourself into one of these guys:McFadden, Gore, Forte, MJD, Hillis, SJax, or Turner. One of this group will surely finish in the top 7 RBs and you can get him in the 2nd round. I'm starting to warm up to Forte and I'm thinking of pairing him with Calvin from the 9th spot. I have the ability to trade picks in my league, so I'm trying to move down in the 2nd and up in the 3rd to guarantee one of the RBs that I listed above.Calvin, Forte, Bradshaw seems like a decent start from the back end of a PPR draft. Then grab Dez to start the 4th and you've got a balanced core.

The idea of DWill, Grant, Best, Knowshon on the 3rd/4th makes me giddy.

Exactly. If you go RB in 1st 2 rounds you won't be able to get these guys and or Lynch, jackson/spiller, j stewart, ingram, thomas etc without taking a big hit at WR or neglecting qb/te till late (can be done too, but a few of the elite TE's are so tempting)

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

I don't like the idea of passing on at least 1 RB in the 1st two rounds this year. By the end of the 3rd round, there is a likely chance that Blount, Bradshaw, Greene, and Matthews will all be gone. At that point, I guess you reach on a Deangelo, Knowshon, Grant, or Best type as your RB1.I think you need to talk yourself into one of these guys:McFadden, Gore, Forte, MJD, Hillis, SJax, or Turner. One of this group will surely finish in the top 7 RBs and you can get him in the 2nd round. I'm starting to warm up to Forte and I'm thinking of pairing him with Calvin from the 9th spot. I have the ability to trade picks in my league, so I'm trying to move down in the 2nd and up in the 3rd to guarantee one of the RBs that I listed above.Calvin, Forte, Bradshaw seems like a decent start from the back end of a PPR draft. Then grab Dez to start the 4th and you've got a balanced core.

RB1-RB40 ADP. look at all the juicy value in 3-8 (including 9.1)

Pos

Rank Pick Name Pos Team Overall Std.

Dev High Low Times

Drafted Graph

1 1.02 Arian Foster RB HOU 1.9 1.0 1.01 1.05 270

2 1.02 Adrian Peterson RB MIN 2.0 1.1 1.01 1.07 273

3 1.03 Ray Rice RB BAL 3.3 1.2 1.01 1.08 214

4 1.04 Chris Johnson RB TEN 4.5 1.3 1.01 1.09 314

5 1.05 Jamaal Charles RB KC 4.8 1.5 1.01 1.09 340

6 1.06 LeSean McCoy RB PHI 6.2 1.6 1.02 1.11 325

7 1.12 Maurice Jones-Drew RB JAC 11.5 2.9 1.04 2.09 289

8 1.12 Darren McFadden RB OAK 12.4 2.9 1.04 2.09 366

9 2.01 Rashard Mendenhall RB PIT 12.7 3.0 1.06 2.08 298

10 2.04 Frank Gore RB SF 15.6 3.1 1.07 3.01 353

11 2.06 Matt Forte RB CHI 17.7 3.3 1.09 3.04 339

12 2.08 Steven Jackson RB STL 20.4 3.8 1.11 3.09 338

13 2.09 Michael Turner RB ATL 20.8 4.4 1.09 3.11 286

14 3.01 Peyton Hillis RB CLE 24.6 4.6 2.01 4.06 295

15 3.05 Ahmad Bradshaw RB NYG 29.2 4.8 2.04 4.07 305

16 3.06 LeGarrette Blount RB TB 30.2 4.8 2.05 4.08 300

17 3.09 Jahvid Best RB DET 33.2 5.8 2.06 5.06 396

18 4.02 Ryan Mathews RB SD 38.4 6.6 2.09 5.12 200

19 4.03 Shonn Greene RB NYJ 39.0 6.0 2.11 5.12 323

20 4.09 DeAngelo Williams RB CAR 44.6 7.1 3.02 6.05 264

21 4.11 Knowshon Moreno RB DEN 47.4 7.4 3.04 6.03 294

22 5.03 Felix Jones RB DAL 50.8 8.4 3.04 7.03 372

23 5.08 Ryan Grant RB GB 55.7 8.1 3.10 7.04 288

24 5.08 Mark Ingram RB NO 55.8 8.9 3.08 7.08 313

25 6.03 Cedric Benson RB CIN 62.7 8.2 4.05 7.10 222

26 6.04 Daniel Thomas RB MIA 63.7 7.5 4.08 7.09 268

27 6.08 BenJarvus Green-Ellis RB NE 68.0 9.5 4.07 8.06 170

28 6.08 Fred Jackson RB BUF 68.2 7.2 5.01 8.03 259

29 6.09 Marshawn Lynch RB SEA 69.5 8.4 4.11 9.01 309

30 7.01 Joseph Addai RB IND 73.1 8.5 5.02 9.05 298

31 7.06 Jonathan Stewart RB CAR 78.1 7.6 5.10 8.10 159

32 7.07 Beanie Wells RB ARI 78.7 8.7 5.08 9.09 309

33 7.12 Pierre Thomas RB NO 84.0 10.0 5.12 9.07 105

34 7.12 Reggie Bush RB MIA 84.3 8.1 6.03 9.10 316

35 8.06 Mike Tolbert RB SD 90.3 9.4 6.05 10.05 276

36 8.06 Brandon Jacobs RB NYG 90.4 9.9 6.04 10.12 168

37 8.07 C.J. Spiller RB BUF 90.6 10.9 6.02 11.04 171

38 9.01 LaDainian Tomlinson RB NYJ 97.1 10.0 6.11 11.05 133

39 9.01 Ryan Williams RB ARI 97.4 11.4 6.11 11.12 287

40 9.02 Ryan Torain RB WAS 97.7 12.2 6.05 12.04 153

 

[HooQuaker]

I loathe the 3/4 turn in this position. I usually end up taking Gates

Gates at 3.11 is not bad at all! Is Romo usually there in round four? How do you feel about him? Do you think the production you will get from those top QBs vs. the production you'll get from Romo is worth what you are asking to trade to get those guys? As I said earlier in the thread, I think that how you handle this draft slot will depend at least in part on how you feel about Romo, because he's critical to that tricky 3/4 bend you see and how you handle that bend.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

I already had a live draft with my long standing league picking 11 out of 14 teams, non PPR, no Flex, standard scoring. Prior to the draft I did upwards of 50 mocks with varying strategies. Most of my mocks were done at Fantasy Football Calculator. Part of what I say here might change due to ADP creep. I can only speak from experience, and as you all know, a 14 team draft spreads things even more thin. My final team was:QB - Romo, Tebow (risky, I know)WR - Calvin Johnson, Fitzgerald, MSW, Greg Little, S. Smith (NYG)RB - DWill, Lynch, Addai, LeShoure (before the inury, so just think of an equivalent. For example, I could've had Wells or Williams here), Hardesty, SprolesTE - DavisI'm pretty happy with this team, particularly given that the talent is spread more thinly in a 14 team league. I have a Qb with top 5 potential. **TWO** WRs with #1 potential and very high floors (this is important). A TE with top 5 potential. A stable of backs who only need to get it done, and three of them have top 15 finishes in their history. When using this "upside down" strategy, it's pretty important to keep your eye on the WW for RB reinforcements. Guys like Torain and Blount, and to a smaller degree even Tashard Choice, Mike Tolbert, or Javarris James could've gotten it done for you here. The point is that when an RB goes down, the guy who gets inserted has a great shot at good fantasy production. This is not so much the case at WR due to the nature of the position. This is why, at pick #11 where you are no longer guaranteed a true stud RB, you should take high floor, bona fide WRs - or at least one.I'm not sure there is any back that you can grab at 11 who will be #1 at the end of the season; maybe Mendenhall if he falls. Not only are the WRs at these picks candidates for #1, they have shown that they can still produce even under terrible circumstances. In other words, they won't fall off a cliff and tank your season if they "bust." They are studs. This is why I do not think it is a good idea to go RB/RB at 11 this year. I also do not think it is a good idea to take a QB at either of those picks. This is personally because I really like Romo this year, but I have seen it happen in mocks where one of the top 6 actually falls to 3.11 (in a 14 team no less). Even if that doesn't happen, Romo is still a good investment for his ADP. I trust him to be a top 5 candidate at his position more than I trust any WR or RB (in particular!) available in those rounds to do the same. Teams picking 11 will not feel sorry for pulling the trigger on him, and he *will* be there for you in round 3 possibly 4. I'm not confident in any QB after him to have top 5 potential.I like the mid round backs this year, and numerous mocks leave me with Lynch, Benson, and F. Jackson all the way into rounds 5 and 6. I personally am as confident in these guys as I am in Blount, Greene, or Best. I feel like you're playing with fire with the latter guys, paying dearly for upside, and you have to take them in rounds 3/4. Use those rounds to take more reliable players, even a top 5 TE. The only third round back I have pulled the trigger on was Bradshaw, but he fell maybe 1/4 of the time to 3.11 in a 14 team league. Before summarizing, I must comment that in a 14 team league, one is far less likely to see anyone go x3 RB in the first 5 rounds. Because the talent is spread more thinly, there is more urgency to fill out the roster. What this means is you are punished less by waiting on RB, since people are less likely to go x3 RB early. Mileage will vary in 10 and 12 team drafts. The only way to know for sure is to mock, mock, mock - and don't always try the same thing. See what happens when you do something different.In summary: I think the best strategies for this slot are WR/WR or RB/WR (or WR/RB). There is a reasonable (albeit not too large) possibility that a top 6 QB will fall to you at 3.11, but if not, Romo will be there. If you don't like Romo this year, then that changes things. In fact, I think that Romo is so important to this draft slot, that you really have to decide beforehand whether you like him or not and that might change everything for you. In case you couldnt' tell, I think he is undervalued at his ADP this year. If you do not get a WR in your first two picks, your WR1 will come from the Bowe/Maclin/Lloyd tier. Those guys are far more likely to plunge off a cliff than one of the top 5 WRs, and in the meantime, your RBS (Turner, Gore, Jackson, Forte, McFadden) do not do much to inspire me - why take two of them only to be stuck with the aforementioned group at WR1?

That is an excellent 14 team league. That would actually be a pretty good 12 team league team. well done sir, must;ve missed this earlier. sorry about leshoure but you'll prolly get more scoring out of s s. smith in philly anyway...

 

[JohnW1970]

Had a phenoms draft tonight and was in the 11th spot. Went WR/WR/RB/WR ended up with a starting lineup of:

QB:Ryan

RB: Best

RB: Deangelo Williams

WR: Nicks

WR: Fitzgerald

WR: Dez

TE: Winslow

Flex: Sidney Rice

Had planned on going WR/WR/RB/RB but couldn't pass up Dez at 4.02

Bench: Fitzgerald at QB, Addai, Vereen, Quiz Rodgers at RB, Danario and Braylon at WR and Z. Miller at TE.

 

[LOCO]

Had a phenoms draft tonight and was in the 11th spot. Went WR/WR/RB/WR ended up with a starting lineup of:QB:RyanRB: BestRB: Deangelo WilliamsWR: NicksWR: FitzgeraldWR: DezTE: WinslowFlex: Sidney RiceHad planned on going WR/WR/RB/RB but couldn't pass up Dez at 4.02Bench: Fitzgerald at QB, Addai, Vereen, Quiz Rodgers at RB, Danario and Braylon at WR and Z. Miller at TE.

Where did best and dwill go?

 

[JohnW1970]

Best was 3.11 and Deangelo was 5.11

 

[Black Heart Machine]

This is a great thread! Though I am at pick 12 in a 12-team league with .5PPR, 4pt passing TDs, it's covering a lot of the same ground I agonize over on a daily basis.

My wrinkle is that I am keeping McFadden for a 10th, which makes passing on an RB at 12/13 a little more palatable, especially if I can snag Blount or Bradshaw at 36/37. But at the same time, getting a Forte/Gore and a top WR sets me up well. It just becomes a question of what other WRs are there in the midrounds, and if I want a sure thing QB or want to wait til later for a risk like Kolb.

The guys I know will be there at 12/13 are Gore/Turner/Jackson/Forte, Nicks/Fitz, Brady/Brees. I don't hate the Nicks/Fitz idea, especially since I think there's more mid-round value at RB (as has been covered in this thread) than there is at WR. My main dilemma is whether Gore/Forte is worth it over one of those WRs, or if even someone like Brady is a good pick. A little early for 4pt Passing league, but I know my league, and with Vick being kept, I'll be lucky as hell if a top QB like Rivers or Romo is left at 36/37.

I think there's a lot of value in grabbing a top-5 guy at every position; sure thing, dependable starters that remove a lot of headache. Which makes me lean towards a WR/WR or WR/QB strato since I already have McFadden; I just worry that those RBs and QBs I'm targeting in the 3rd/4th (Blount/Bradshaw; Rivers/Romo) will be gone.

And mock drafts are all well and good, but everyone's league has its own idiosyncrasies, and one errant pick can start a run you'd never expect.

 

[HooQuaker]

This is a great thread! Though I am at pick 12 in a 12-team league with .5PPR, 4pt passing TDs, it's covering a lot of the same ground I agonize over on a daily basis.My wrinkle is that I am keeping McFadden for a 10th, which makes passing on an RB at 12/13 a little more palatable, especially if I can snag Blount or Bradshaw at 36/37. But at the same time, getting a Forte/Gore and a top WR sets me up well. It just becomes a question of what other WRs are there in the midrounds, and if I want a sure thing QB or want to wait til later for a risk like Kolb.The guys I know will be there at 12/13 are Gore/Turner/Jackson/Forte, Nicks/Fitz, Brady/Brees. I don't hate the Nicks/Fitz idea, especially since I think there's more mid-round value at RB (as has been covered in this thread) than there is at WR. My main dilemma is whether Gore/Forte is worth it over one of those WRs, or if even someone like Brady is a good pick. A little early for 4pt Passing league, but I know my league, and with Vick being kept, I'll be lucky as hell if a top QB like Rivers or Romo is left at 36/37. I think there's a lot of value in grabbing a top-5 guy at every position; sure thing, dependable starters that remove a lot of headache. Which makes me lean towards a WR/WR or WR/QB strato since I already have McFadden; I just worry that those RBs and QBs I'm targeting in the 3rd/4th (Blount/Bradshaw; Rivers/Romo) will be gone. And mock drafts are all well and good, but everyone's league has its own idiosyncrasies, and one errant pick can start a run you'd never expect.

To my mind the 4pt passing squeezes the QBs together more closely and makes them less imperative. Add on to that the PPR, and QB value drops even more according to VBD principles. This is probably why Vick was kept in your league - he runs the TDs in. Here's an experiment to try mocking (although it would be hard to mock your league, because free mocks aren't often using this scoring system): Holding McFadden, take the Nicks/Fitz @1.12/2.1, and then load up everywhere else and aim for Kolb/Eli QBBC. Why? Well you are probably playing in a head to head league, which means that weekly performance > total. To this end, you're getting what I like to call the "double dip" with your two stud WRs and your QB every week. This wins games, and if you draft like this (waiting for these two QBs) you should be extremely strong at the other positions. I have to admit, I'm not really a fan of waiting for these QBs with normal scoring but with your league, I would try it. Mock and see what kind of rosters you come up with waiting for these two QBs.

 

[GoBears84]

I'm considering going RB/WR in this spot in my PPR league this year, assuming the usual suspects are available. The main reason is flexibility. I want to have as many options open to me at the 3/4 turn as possible, in case some value falls my way. If I go WR/WR or RB/RB at 1/2, it is pretty tough to draft one of those at the 3/4 turn, even if they are a great value. No matter what happens, the two guys you get at 1/2 are going to be very good, so I don't think it's worth the pigeon-hole on the 3/4 to go WR/WR or RB/RB at 1/2.

This is a very underrated approach IMO. Nothing worse than seeing value and not being able to grab it. How often have you gone RB/RB early and then when you get to the 3/4 turn you've just missed the WR run and there are at least one if not two RBs sitting there who shouldn't be? So you grab one and then reach for your first WR who you really don't like. Going WR early (at 11 or 14) allow you to have all your options for the 3/4 turn, but the top 3-4 WRs are far more bustproof.

I think the RB/WR approach is the play.I watched a buddy of mine draft from 11 today in a 12 team league (see below). QB's get 6 pts per TD so QB's go earlier. If he had gone RB/WR he could have had CJ or AJ, but there was no was either of them was going to come back around. I think waiting on QB/TE and building value in the first 5 picks is key to success in this slot.Luckily, we do 3rd round flip - so I get 1.11, 2.02, 3.02, 4.02, 5.11, 6.02.01.11 RB LeSean McCoy02.02 RB Darren McFadden03.11 WR Mike Wallace04.02 WR DeSean Jackson05.11 WR Santonio Holmes06.02 QB Matt Ryan07.11 RB Marshawn Lynch08.02 RB Joseph Addai09.11 DE Baltimore10.02 TE Kellen Winslow11.11 WR Mike Thomas12.02 PK Alex Henery13.11 QB Jason Campbell14.02 WR Jacoby Ford

 

[Black Heart Machine]

I posted this in another thread but thought it made sense here. I draft in the 12 spot but this strategy fits any late rounder:

Heading into this year's draft, even with McFadden stashed as my keeper, I found myself going back to the typical RB/WR heavy strategy, and grabbing a QB late. But now I'm thinking maybe the Top 3 position player strategy is the way to go for the second year in a row. I'll grab consistency early then hope to hit homeruns with a few mid-round gems.

But I am actually pick 12 this year and with the big gap between picks, it's gonna be a bit tougher to pull this off. I'm definitely thinking about it, especially since I am keeping McFadden, who has gotta pan out better than Greene did last year.

At 12/13, here's what I'm figuring - Calvin(top 3 WR) or Nicks (def top 5) then Rodgers/Brady (top 3 QBs). At 36/37, my mocks show that I can likely snag someone like Welker or BMarsh (he'll find the endzone this year) or even Witten (top 3 TE) and then grab another RB like Blount or DeAngelo or Lynch or Ingram.

I don't hate that roster. I don't hate that roster at all. Brady, McFadden/DeAngelo, Nicks/Welker, Witten...solid.

The conventional wisdom in a 4pt passing league is to wait on QB, but I find QBs are a big headache - going QBBC is a recipe for bad luck (always make the wrong call!) - and it's very comforting to have a sure thing throwing for 250+, 2+ TDs every week. Consistency at every position is nice, and I think by targeting a Top 3-5 player (give or take, but it doesn't really work if you reach too hard) at each position, you can get it.

What do you think?

 

[lazyike]

In many PPR drafts I see the following 6 RBs gone before 11th pick -Foster,AP,CJ,Charles,Rice,McCoy and 4 WRs-AJohnson,Ca Johnson,White and Fitz. The choice at 11 then becomes Mendenhall, and 4 RBs with durability concerns in Mcfadden, MJD, Jackson and Gore. Choices at WR are the often injured Nicks or the aging Wayne. I'm not liking the 11th pick unless someone grabs Mcfadden or Vick dropping a better WR or RB.

Well my 12 team PPR slow draft officially got under way today and while I was concerned about my 11 spot I actually was able to get Roddy White with pick 11 and then grabbed MJD with my 13th pick. I contemplated taking McFadden but don't like inj prone guys for the West coast games. Gives you no or limited options if they don't play with those dreaded game time decisions. Suprised to see Nicks go at 1.09 and Mendenhall in a PPR at 1.101.01 Foster1.02 Peterson1.03 Rice1.04 Charles1.05 A Johnson1.06 Ch. Johnson1.07 McCoy1.08 Ca Johnson1.09 Nicks1.10 Mendenhall1.11 White1.12 Fitz2.01 Forte2.02 MJD2.03 McFadden

 

[Darylrose]

Drafted yesterday.

12 team PPR - Standard scoring.

Start 1 QB/ 2 RB/ 3 WR/ 1 TE/ 1 K/ 1 DT.

I pick 11th

1.11 Calvin Johnson WR

2.02 L Fitzgerald WR

3.11 B Marshall WR

4.02 A Bradshaw RB

5.11 K Moreno RB

6.02 M. Stafford QB

7.11 F Jackson RB

8.02 M Lynch RB

9.11 J Graham TE

10.02 J Ford WR

11.11 J Cutler QB

12.02 W McGahee RB

13.11 G Little WR

14.02 Giants DT

15.11 S Gostkowski K

16.02 M Hardesty RB

17.11 D Mason WR

18.02 49ers DT

Notes

At the 3/4 turn I had the luxury of having Bradshaw, Best & Jones available, so I went with Marshall at 3.

We are a QB heavy league (6 pt TD), with 7 QB's gone before I picked in round 3. Ryan Schaub and Roethlisberger all went before I picked in 5th round (targeted Roethlisberger), so I had to take Stafford in round 6, as he probably wouldn't make it back to me.

Wanted top tier TE in round 5, but last one to go was Clark at 5.8 (except V Davis, but I'm not sold on him this year.

Good value in 7 & 8 with Jackson & Lynch, to overcome my worry about Moreno, but at least I got Mcgahee as insurance.

Overall pretty happy, but a little thin in WR depth, although starting 3 WR squad of CJ, Fitz and Marshall looks pretty good!

BTW - Ingram went at 3.6!

I definately think this is the way to go out of the latter positions this year.