Man, some people really want to believe. How can you definitively say the bolded?
Given that the bears offered a guy $5M/yr to start for their team, I think it is safe to give up the dream that Jeremy "3.6 ypc" Langford is a starter next year.
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
*Official* - Jeremy Langford (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter TZMarkie
- Start date
Given that the bears offered a guy $5M/yr to start for their team, I think it is safe to give up the dream that Jeremy "3.6 ypc" Langford is a starter next year.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
Are you referring to re-signing Quiz on his one year deal? That is the only move they made at RB other than cutting veteran RB Matt Forte and going after CJ.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/football/bears/ct-bears-free-agency-tracker-updates-story.html
- The Bears re-signed running back Jacquizz Rodgers and offensive lineman Nick Becton with both players receiving one-year deals.
- Restricted free agent running back C.J. Anderson signed an offer sheet with the Miami Dolphins worth $18 million over four years, according to multiple national reports.
http://bearswire.usatoday.com/2016/03/13/dont-read-too-much-into-the-bearss-interest-in-running-back-c-j-anderson/
...The Bears only offered $1 million more, and players in the state of Florida pay a lower effective income tax rate than players in Chicago, so realistically for Anderson, the financial difference was likely minimal.
It says a lot that Pace was willing to bring in Anderson for just shy of $5 million a season, but fans need to be careful not to read too much into this move. Just because the team tried to add Anderson doesn’t mean that the team isn’t happy or comfortable with Langford and Carey as their backs.
...If the Bears add another running back this off-season, it doesn’t necessarily mean they aren’t happy with Langford or Carey; but this is the NFL. Nothing is guaranteed, and if Pace thinks the team would be better with a guy like Anderson or a rookie this April, then the Bears’ current stable of runners will be put on notice: Be ready to compete for carries this Summer.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I realize this is nitpicking but they didn't cut Forte. They let him walk in free agency which is a discernible difference.
I'm a Langford owner who was feeling pretty good after the season, I have been growing more and more tepid on him the more I've read. At this point I'd be pretty surprised if the Bears didn't add someone as part of a RBBC. I think the question now is what type of player they add - hopefully it's someone where Langford can carve out a role and still have value.
Last edited by a moderator:
Power Monster
The Midnight Stalker
I am not too sure that the Bears would go RBBC. They will probably seek to back fill to mitigate injury or ineffectiveness with Langford. The strategy in the past has been - give the the bell cow the majority of carries and receptions. They let Forte go based on a very high risk of durability concerns that will likely come along with a player his age and a player that has taken a lot of wear and tear. The fan base is always juiced for a number one that will take the majority of snaps. This is the way the Bears have rolled at RB for many many many years.
zamboni
Footballguy
I respect your opinion as a Bears fan, but history doesn't seem to matter much when it comes to Fox - and his history of preferring RBBC - and the fact that he may not be as enamored of Langford as we in the fantasy community are.
Last edited by a moderator:
Power Monster
The Midnight Stalker
True - but I have to think that a lot of pressure is going to be on Fox to produce wins this year. If it is a potential RBBC it will have to come with the Bears in the draft unless they feel that there is value with the remaining FAs. A lot of risk at this point but they will need a veteran presence. If it is a RBBC wit the current roster it will be Langford and Carey but that OL better gel and getting White back will be a huge lift. They have question marks on offense and leaving a young RBBC exposed by a middle of the road OL and a QB that is prone to making some bumbling mistakes is a recipe for a let down. Plus - they might have a gap at TE. This is a big draft coming up for the Bears.
Last edited by a moderator:
I think we both know I wasn't referring to that at all. I only said two things. One, I basically said you don't know what you are talking about by saying they only pursued one player. You can't say that definitively. None of us know every single player they've reached out to or what offers they've made. Two, the reference I made to paying someone $5M/year was obviously to CJA's offer.
If the Bears go into the season with just Langford. Carey, and Quiz then something went drastically wrong in the offseason. That is obviously not their plan if they were offering CJA the third highest RB contract during this year's free agency.
zamboni
Footballguy
Agreed, but it does sting when you think you have a potential starting RB in a run-friendly offense after the veteran is jettisoned. Even more so when you own both Forte and Langford and you thought you hit the jackpot.
zamboni
Footballguy
Langford owners have to be breathing a bit easier after the Cowboys jumped on Elliott early. There's still obviously the possibility of the Bears taking an RB in the next few rounds, but for the time being it looks like Langford may get a chance this year after all.
Last edited by a moderator:
steelers1080
Footballguy
I'd wait to make sure they don't grab a RB in rounds 2/3 because Booker/Dixon could be competing for RB1.
Restricted
Footballguy
No RB 2/3 As an owner Im excited.
Yeah, an 80/20 split towards Langford. Possible the Bears are being smart unlike the Titans and figuring we will go with Langford this season and if he doesn't pan out grab a RB from next years enormously talented RB class.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
Coach John Fox suggested "whoever has a hot hand" will be the Bears' running back.
Fox has routinely favored committee backfields dating back to his time with the Panthers and Broncos. Even in his first season with the Bears last year, he rotated Matt Forte and rookie Jeremy Langford the final month. Langford has been talked up as the "heir apparent" to Forte, but it'd be foolish to believe he'll take on Forte's full workload. Rookie Jordan Howard is a candidate to steal early-down snaps, and RBs coach Stan Drayton is dubbing Ka'Deem Cary the "wild card" in the backfield. It's a position battle to monitor closely this summer. Langford is currently being drafted as RB20 in MFL best-ball leagues.
Source: Chicago Tribune
May 20 - 12:18 PM
dipandglide
Footballguy
Owners should have sold by now
jtd13
Footballguy
I love the collective logic of the shark pool:
Unproven 2nd year RB who's team used the 73rd overall pick on a player of the same position? Not a concern.
Unproven 2nd year back who's team used the 90th pick and 2 more picks on players of the same position? No worries here!
Unproven 2nd year back who's team used the 150th pick on a player of the same position? He's screwed!
Unproven 2nd year RB who's team used the 73rd overall pick on a player of the same position? Not a concern.
Unproven 2nd year back who's team used the 90th pick and 2 more picks on players of the same position? No worries here!
Unproven 2nd year back who's team used the 150th pick on a player of the same position? He's screwed!
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Should have sold by now? Because they drafted a RB in the 5th round? You guys make me laugh. Dude has the potential to be a monster in PPR. Everything they've done from last year until now has SCREAMED they want Langford as the lead back. They let him shoulder most of the load when Forte got healthy, they let Forte walk, they didn't grab another RB until the 5th round and they didn't sign any FA RB. It's pretty much everything you want to see with a young back who was a mid round pick.
Confirmation bias, also called confirmatory bias or myside bias, is the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms one's preexisting beliefs or hypotheses, while giving disproportionately less consideration to alternative possibilities
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Jay Ajayi > Jeremy Langford. New HC Adam Gase says Jay is clearly ahead of the other RB which is a very different message than what John Fox is saying about Langford.
But by all means act like this is the same when it clearly isn't.
I stopped trying to make sense of what the Seahawks are trying to do several years ago.
I don't think the last few comments seem to recognize the difference when there clearly is one.
Last edited by a moderator:
flapgreen
Footballguy
BoltBacker
Footballguy
How do you define a "lead back", and how many lead backs are there in the NFL? I assume it means a 3-down back, no? Starter, short-yardage, and passing-down. Everyone else is simply in a RBBC of one sort or another.
jtd13
Footballguy
That seems like a lot of stock being put into coachspeak in May. I think the actions of the team say more than the coaches comments in May, before guys like Drake have even practiced with the team (acording the the story linked to the rotoworld post about Ajayi separating himself, anyway).
But you put stake in what you think is more telling, and I'll do likewise. I just don't think the difference is as clear as you are making it out ot be.
jtd13
Footballguy
Yep, if I have a different opinion than you, it must be because I am biased. Great job, Sherlock! Really valuable stuff you are adding here!
PS- I have more shares of Ajayi than I do Langford.
dipandglide
Footballguy
YES, you sell. Langford isn't very talented. When you avg 3.6 YPC you get replaced sooner rather than later. These are the types of guys you sell high if you want to win leagues.
*I'm talking dynasty. Langford's short term value is ok.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
No I put more stock in the ongoing evaluation of the specific players. What the coaches are saying is just one piece of information, not the whole of my observations.jtd13 said:
FWIW I like Langford and I think the Bears willingness to move on from Forte says good things about Langfords opportunity this year and possibly moving forward if he plays well.
John Fox has shown a tendency to like a power RB which is Howard is and that may take away some of the goal line and short yardage opportunities. I could see this developing into a time share similar to the Bengals with Bernard and Hill if Howard is up to the task. This has happened with Fox before where he splits carries between RB even when one of them may seem clearly better than the other. For example with Foster and WIlliams Stewart and Williams, Shelton ect.
If Langford does not time share much then he could put up some really nice numbers, perhaps close to what Forte has before. For example Moreno got most of the opportunities because he was the best pass blocker at that time. There are more examples of there being some form of time share with Fox than I think there are of one RB getting the majority of the carries however.
DropKick
Footballguy
People make a bid deal about the 3.6 YPC but backs can have a high degree of fluctuation in that stat from year to year.dipandglide said:
He put up virtually nothing getting a touch or two behind Forte, but once he got a chance to start he was around 4 per carry in most games. That includes a few better defenses; 20 for 73 against the Rams with 7 receptions for 100+ on top of that; 13 for 25 against the league leading Denver D; and 5 for 14 against the Lions in a meaningless week 17 contest.
I don't see any reason why Langford can't average 4.0 YPC with decent PPR stats.
As for sharing time... If I moved every back with competition for touches, I'd have no one left.
1
GB
1
1
0
2
Ari
6
21
1
3
@Sea
0
0
0
4
Oak
1
4
0
5
@KC
2
-2
0
6
@Det
5
10
1
7
BYE
-
-
-
-
8
Min
12
46
0
9
@SD
18
72
1
2
10
@LA
20
73
1
11
Den
13
25
1
12
@GB
12
48
1
13
SF
12
59
0
14
Wsh
11
37
0
15
@Min
11
46
0
16
@TB
19
83
0
17
Det
5
14
0
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
There is ZERO correlation between rookie year YPC and success and failure. It's fact. It's been fact since fantasy football was created as a hobby. LT had a 3.6 YPC when he entered the league. Give me a break, do a tiny amount of research before you make that tired, silly argument.dipandglide said:
Last edited by a moderator:
dipandglide
Footballguy
If he had 50-60 carries your point would be more valid. Langford had 150 carries which is a big enough sample size for me to know he isn't very good.
Are all of your timeshare RB's ADP77? I'd much rather have CJA or Gio at that price point(they're actually talented).
DropKick
Footballguy
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Kadeem Carey is the longest tenured veteran.Steed said:
DropKick
Footballguy
I like Anderson and Gio but...
Were you bailing ship on CJA last year after stat lines of 12 for 29; 12 for 27; 8 for 18; 11 for 22? Was 2 YPC enough for you to know he wasn't very good?
How about Bernard who struggled against the better D's as well; 8 for 14 against Denver; 10 for 16 against the Rams; 6 for 18 against Arizona. Looks like 2.0 per carry to me...
If you paid a little more attention, you would notice that most backs around the league are in some type of time share, including Anderson and Gio. In fact, each could face a significant challenge in carries from teammates next season.
dipandglide
Footballguy
Ummmm, ya it does. Bringing up one example that makes you right is lazy research. I looked up a majority of the rb's that have been relevant in the past 15 years and almost all of them have a better YPC avg. their rookie year. Are there a few examples? Sure. But they definitely aren't the norm for guys with sustained success.
Sorry to get all of you Langford nuthugger's panties in a bunch. If you like mediocrity, ENJOY! While your holding on to the Langford's and L. Murray's of the world, I'm selling and laughing all the way to the bank!
DropKick
Footballguy
I think your analysis (term used very loosely) is beyond lazy. With the exception of the Bronco game, a team that shut down many a RB (including your boy Gio), Langford averaged 4.0 YPC once he got to start and keep a significant number of carries. Plus he was a factor in the passing game. The book isn't complete on him.
Not sure how you could profit from selling Langord as how would a no-talent JAG have ever ended up on your elite squad in the first place?
Last edited by a moderator:
dipandglide
Footballguy
I pay plenty of attention and realize a lot of these guys are in timeshares. I didn't buy the Gio's and CJA's when their values peaked. I bought them before or after. I was the guy selling Freeman for the Sammy Watkins and DGB/Eifert's while others continued to hold(I'm a buyer again
). Look, the RB position is a volatile one, that's why I'm a firm believer in selling them high and stocking up on less volatile assets. If I'm making a run, or need rb production, I can always buy their production when its needed or find ww gems like Hightower/C. West's.
Carry on. I was merely stating my opinion. If you didn't invest much in Langford, I certainly understand those of you who are holding. glgl
dipandglide
Footballguy
You want in depth analysis? There are plenty of avenues better than me. There are those who share my opinion(Matt Waldman is one of them) and those that don't(you and the guy who brought up one rare example as a reason to write off JL's crap YPC. Nice job buddy!)
If you think Langford is more talented than Gio or CJA you're certainly entitled to that opinion. I'd love to engage you more, but its not gonna be productive for either of us. Gl with your boy!
DropKick
Footballguy
Reading comprehension is NOT your strong point. I never said who was more talented. I simply stated that timeshares existed all over the league and that good defenses can shut down a player and how one game can affect an average. Luckily for Anderson, he won't have to rush against the Broncos and unfortunately for Langford, he doesn't get to rush against the Bears.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
In May CJA is #39, Langford #55, and Gio #65 in terms of ADP so far. If you prefer Gio I won't argue with you..... but Hill is a much, much bigger threat to his carries than Howard/Carey combined are for Langford.
DropKick
Footballguy
I'm not sure how this ranks in terms of difficulty of schedule but it includes some pretty good defenses. I don't see how it could be much tougher - the NFC West (Arizona, St. Louis, Seattle), the AFC West (Denver, KC, Oakland) and of course, the usual divisional foes (Green Bay, Detroit and Minny).
Chicago fans chime in.
dipandglide
Footballguy
Hmm. DLF's May ADP has CJA #68, Gio #70, and Langford #77. What site are you getting your ADP from? MFL?
I agree with you. That said, Gio has a proven track record and is talented....they aren't gonna keep him off the field if he's healthy. You can't say the same thing about Langford. Sure the options are limited in CHI, but his leash isn't very long if he's not performing. If he keeps avg 3.6 YPC Fox will make that backfield a three headed mess.
