I think Putin is still in a USSR mindset and expanding Russia's territory has always been a priority, hence Crimea and now this.
The argument I've heard him make about all of their aggressive moves is that they are just protecting Russians that happen to live in these other countries. I think he believes Ukraine (at least the Eastern portions) belongs as part of Russia.
I imagine there are at least some Russian speaking Ukrainian citizens who would not mind being part of Russia. How many though, I don't have a clue.
The interesting thing is they’re nowhere near being a superpower. We get it, 6K nukes - essentially useless to both sides bc MAD (will never be used.) They’ve got 1/7th the military capability we do, - 1/14th the economy. 330M v 144M. By any nonnuclear measurement, Russia is inferior.
Land mass. Crushing the land mass game. Doubt we have plans to pull a Napoleon/Hitler and invade them.
Our actual, ready to deploy technology dwarfs their capabilities. War is horrendous, we would never let it get to that. But if it did - I don’t want it, you don’t, he doesn’t, but if - we would immediately take out their satellites with SM-3 and Arrow 3 missiles. That’s the first 30-120 minutes - and it would have nothing to do with troops, tanks, or ships. Game over.
It wouldn’t matter how many troops, reserves Russia or U.S has in the region. It would be a modern technological war decided by four primary factors:
1. Target acquisition (who has the better target data, detection and tracking abilities)
2. Accuracy at great range (Who would be able to deliver cruise and ballistic missiles to crucial targets first, accurately and from great range)
3. Fire first advantage (Who launches a mass attack first would have a great advantage)
4. Air superiority. Who comes to rule the skies first would stop any and all progress of any ground based assets.
They do not possess the capacity to do the same. In the war that will never be fought, we would dominate target acquisition. It’s the NFL VS a mid-level MAC squad, who ya got?
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Like I said, don’t understand his end game. Not rolling NATIO security back 30 years. The Eastern Block band isn’t getting back together. I guess he is betting no western leader will match his moxie. He might be correct about that. Amazing he’s accomplishing this on hubris and wishful thinking.