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***OFFICIAL*** Washington Nationals ongoing thread (2 Viewers)

Doctor Detroit said:
Yeah I agree, didn't want to trade Robles but for Sale it seems worth it.  He's got three years left on his contract that pays him $12, $12.5, and $15 mill the next three seasons.  That's a lot of pitcher for that money, so that cost was worked into the deal. 
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Thirded.  Three cheap years of 27 year old Chris Sale is a far more valuable asset than two cheap years of 30 year old Cutch, enough so that I'm ok with losing Robles in the process.

Kind of hoping they can talk the White Sox into throwing in Robertson as long as they're at the table, maybe by adding a second tier prospect to the current package.  He's far from perfect but he would at least provide a bridge until they're comfortable with my man Koda Glover taking over the 9th.

 
Rosenthal tweeting that the Red Sox have taken the lead.  Honestly going to be a bit upset if it ends up that Rizzo didn't want to give up Robles.

 
TobiasFunke said:
Thirded.  Three cheap years of 27 year old Chris Sale is a far more valuable asset than two cheap years of 30 year old Cutch, enough so that I'm ok with losing Robles in the process.

Kind of hoping they can talk the White Sox into throwing in Robertson as long as they're at the table, maybe by adding a second tier prospect to the current package.  He's far from perfect but he would at least provide a bridge until they're comfortable with my man Koda Glover taking over the 9th.
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Seems like the majority of the times these deals pop up, the trio (estimated) of premium prospects it takes to acquire the stud pitcher in his prime ends up being one really good player, one okay player, and one guy who never makes it. Shoot me if you get Sale (and his control/price, as you note) for that package. 

The one that stands out quickly as not turning into something like that was Colon for Lee, Sizemore, and Phillips. 

 
Not anything the Nats could do to beat that.  I'd take Moncada over Giolito/Robles too.

 
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Don Quixote said:
Not anything the Nats could do to beat that.  I'd take Moncada over Giolito/Robles too.
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Jorge Castillo says it came down to the Nats being unwilling to move Turner.  If that's what it would have taken (Turner + Giolito + others or Turner + Robles + others, I assume), I'm glad they didn't.  Losing Turner from the 2017-2019 squads would cost them a decent chunk of the gains they'd get from Sale.  Combine that with the three extra seasons of Turner beyond 2019 and the elite prospect? Better to stand pat, maybe pitch up Cutch.

 
TobiasFunke said:
Jorge Castillo says it came down to the Nats being unwilling to move Turner.  If that's what it would have taken (Turner + Giolito + others or Turner + Robles + others, I assume), I'm glad they didn't.  Losing Turner from the 2017-2019 squads would cost them a decent chunk of the gains they'd get from Sale.  Combine that with the three extra seasons of Turner beyond 2019 and the elite prospect? Better to stand pat, maybe pitch up Cutch.
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Agreed.   I can see why that would have been the White Sox ask after the Red Sox offer, as that was probably the only way to beat it.  But giving up Turner would have made zero sense.

 
If giolito and Robles are available what other studs could be had?  Mccutcheon is nice but I don't think he's worth trading the farm for. 

Saw yesterday 400 million attached to Harper. If that's all he wants sign him now.  If it gets to a point where he is clearly going to leave when do you trade him for the farm so you get more than a draft pick back?

 
Jose Quintana rumors out there now.  27 years old, lefty, 200 IP, 175 K, 1.20 WHIP guy.  No idea what his contract is but saw on twitter it's "friendly".

 
Ramblin Wreck said:
Jose Quintana rumors out there now.  27 years old, lefty, 200 IP, 175 K, 1.20 WHIP guy.  No idea what his contract is but saw on twitter it's "friendly".
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5 years/$21M (2014-18), plus 2019-20 club options

No reason for White Sox to trade that contract for 200 above average innings. 

 
Double whoa...

Dan HayesVerified account
‏@CSNHayes
#WhiteSox return includes Lucas Giolito, Dane Dunning and Reynaldo Lopez for Adam Eaton.

 
Limp Ditka said:
Thought for sure this is what was happening when word of 'Giolito and....' broke
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It's known the Nats think Giolito is overrated but that package probably could have gotten close to Sale. Lopez looks like a #3 type starter so him and a lower prospect should have been enough. Eaton is underrated and he's a nice player to have, but this was a desperate trade when they had no business being desperate. 

 
Doctor Detroit said:
It's known the Nats think Giolito is overrated but that package probably could have gotten close to Sale. Lopez looks like a #3 type starter so him and a lower prospect should have been enough. Eaton is underrated and he's a nice player to have, but this was a desperate trade when they had no business being desperate. 
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I don't think so.  Nats were willing to include at least two and maybe all three of those guys plus Robles, who at this point is pretty much universally considered better than all those guys. So you're talking about a much better package, and that still wasn't enough. White Sox insisted on Turner, which was a no-go for the Nats and rightfully so.

I'm not a huge fan of the deal either, I think it's an overpay, but it really doesn't bother me that much. I've been down on Giolito since we got a look at him, it's strangely nice to hear the Nats were in the same boat. Losing Lopez hurts more I think, and the loss of overall pitching depth hurts a lot, but the return is solid and the Nats have never had a problem drafting and developing pitching talent. The hole in the org has always been on the other side of the ball, and this gives them a cheap, stable, well above-average major league outfielder and frees up cash over the next few years to buy other positions players as need arises.  If it were up to me I probably don't make the deal, but it doesn't seem outrageously imbalanced, so I figure Rizzo's earned some deference.


 



 
TobiasFunke said:
it doesn't seem outrageously imbalanced
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I thought it was at first glance, but Eaton is 28 and they have him for the next 5 years on a very team-friendly contract. It's hard to put a value on that because it's such an uncommon thing. If Giolito is truly a turd, it's probably a great move.  :shrug:

 
E-Z Glider said:
I thought it was at first glance, but Eaton is 28 and they have him for the next 5 years on a very team-friendly contract. It's hard to put a value on that because it's such an uncommon thing. If Giolito is truly a turd, it's probably a great move.  :shrug:
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It's a pretty bad trade when you are trading away two pitchers you control for the next seven years and get a guy that you are going to play out of position, thus lessening his value.  Eaton is one of the best RFs in baseball, he's just average in CF.

 
Doctor Detroit said:
It's a pretty bad trade when you are trading away two pitchers you control for the next seven years and get a guy that you are going to play out of position, thus lessening his value.  Eaton is one of the best RFs in baseball, he's just average in CF.
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I'm guessing he just plays CF for one or two years.  He probably gets moved to a corner in 2018 (after Werth leaves) or 2019 (after Harper leaves), with Robles as the long-term projected guy in center.

 
TobiasFunke said:
I don't think so.  Nats were willing to include at least two and maybe all three of those guys plus Robles, who at this point is pretty much universally considered better than all those guys. So you're talking about a much better package, and that still wasn't enough. White Sox insisted on Turner, which was a no-go for the Nats and rightfully so.

I'm not a huge fan of the deal either, I think it's an overpay, but it really doesn't bother me that much. I've been down on Giolito since we got a look at him, it's strangely nice to hear the Nats were in the same boat. Losing Lopez hurts more I think, and the loss of overall pitching depth hurts a lot, but the return is solid and the Nats have never had a problem drafting and developing pitching talent. The hole in the org has always been on the other side of the ball, and this gives them a cheap, stable, well above-average major league outfielder and frees up cash over the next few years to buy other positions players as need arises.  If it were up to me I probably don't make the deal, but it doesn't seem outrageously imbalanced, so I figure Rizzo's earned some deference.
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They insisted on Benintendi from the Red Sox too, but the Red Sox didn't trade him. 

What they did was screw the Nats not once, but twice.  They made the offer on Sale and then the White Sox took that to the Red Sox to top.  Then they called the Nats back and said we'll take the same package minus Robles for Eaton. 

Rizzo overpaid, Giolito and Lopez could both end up being terrible and he still overpaid.  Basically he sold a bunch of Apple stock because he thinks the iphone 10 is gonna suck four years from now. 

And I'm not sure Robles is universally considered a better prospect than Giolito, it's apple and oranges anyway since one is a pitcher and one is an OFer.  Robles looks pretty good but he's also 19 and didn't exactly tear up High A ball down the stretch. 

 
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Here comes a triple screw:

1:24pm: The Nationals tried to expand the Eaton deal to include Robertson, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets. The White Sox turned them down, however, so the two sides will discuss a Robertson deal as a separate proposition.

 
 


Brian Kenny Verified account ‏@MrBrianKenny


Last 3: Fowler Eaton

OB .369 .362

SLG .419 .422

wRC+ 121 117

WAR/Yr 2.7 5.1
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I think we can all agree that if the Nats had signed Fowler to the deal he just got from the Cards everyone would be OK with it, yes?

So instead of going that route, they spent two elite prospects and one second-tier one on Eaton.  So far that's not so great.  But they also got:

- a player starting his Age 28 season instead of his Age 31 season

- $45 million in savings

- Get to keep their first round pick (essentially erases the inclusion of 29th overall pick Dunning)

So they traded Lopez + Giolito for a younger (peak instead of post-peak), more consistent version of Fowler and an extra $45 million to spend elsewhere.  Doesn't seem that crazy to me :shrug:
 
TobiasFunke said:
 


I think we can all agree that if the Nats had signed Fowler to the deal he just got from the Cards everyone would be OK with it, yes?

So instead of going that route, they spent two elite prospects and one second-tier one on Eaton.  So far that's not so great.  But they also got:

- a player starting his Age 28 season instead of his Age 31 season

- $45 million in savings

- Get to keep their first round pick (essentially erases the inclusion of 29th overall pick Dunning)

So they traded Lopez + Giolito for a younger (peak instead of post-peak), more consistent version of Fowler and an extra $45 million to spend elsewhere.  Doesn't seem that crazy to me :shrug:
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I'll feel a lot better about it if the money ends up freeing them up to do something else.  They seem to be striking out on closers so far, but supposedly in the Jansen race, which could be a good add.

 
Fowler wouldn't have come here unless it was an even bigger deal

Not hating the CF situation now but I agree Rizzo got double played by the Lesser Sox, and now we only need a closer, another starter and a first baseman who can hit.

If/when Harper starts getting #####y it's all over

But I'm feeling really positive about this and everything

 
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TobiasFunke said:
 


I think we can all agree that if the Nats had signed Fowler to the deal he just got from the Cards everyone would be OK with it, yes?

So instead of going that route, they spent two elite prospects and one second-tier one on Eaton.  So far that's not so great.  But they also got:

- a player starting his Age 28 season instead of his Age 31 season

- $45 million in savings

- Get to keep their first round pick (essentially erases the inclusion of 29th overall pick Dunning)

So they traded Lopez + Giolito for a younger (peak instead of post-peak), more consistent version of Fowler and an extra $45 million to spend elsewhere.  Doesn't seem that crazy to me :shrug:
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What you conveniently omitted was the loss of 13 combined years of team control at fixed prices for Lopez and Giolito.  I'm not going to calculate that, but it's more than $45 million if even one of them turns into a middle of the rotation pitcher. 

 
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Doctor Detroit said:
What you conveniently omitted was the loss of 13 combined years of team control at fixed prices for Lopez and Giolito.  I'm not going to calculate that, but it's more than $45 million if even one of them turns into a middle of the rotation pitcher. 
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Not sure what you mean, I mentioned Lopez + Giolito in the equation.  You did omit the five years of Eaton though.  Gotta add that to the other side of the equation. Still not sure the final result is in the Nats' favor, but its close enough that I'm not gonna lose my head about it.  I'm a Wizards fan, this is paradise compared to that. 

 
Ramblin Wreck said:
Espinosa traded to Angels for two players that are unlikely to ever see the majors.
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Surprised they traded him away for so little, as he was still fairly cheap.  I thought Espinosa would still play a big role when Zim/Rendon inevitably get hurt, and/or giving rest to Turner/Murphy.  Maybe the hope is that they end up as bullpen arms.

 
Hasn't been a great offseason to be sure, but here's some good perspective:

The Nationals' offseason is suffering under the weight of expectations

I mostly agree- this feels bad because we thought we were getting Sale and/or Cutch.  But at the moment the 2017 squad is already better on paper than the one that won 95 games in 2016. 

And like the writer, I think the recent focus on shutdown closers is a bit over the top. When the 2016 season started the Indians and Cubs were both using homegrown, solid but unspectacular closers.  Miller and Chapman were both midseason acquisitions.  No reason the Nats can't do the same based on who is pitching well on a 2017 non-contender, assuming they are a contender at that juncture. Long way to go before worrying about the "good problem" of who closes out a win in October.

 
Any chance they let Shawn Kelley close? I picked him up in a couple of keeper leagues specifically because I thought they might save money for other positions and not spend it on a closer.

 
TobiasFunke said:
Hasn't been a great offseason to be sure, but here's some good perspective:

The Nationals' offseason is suffering under the weight of expectations

I mostly agree- this feels bad because we thought we were getting Sale and/or Cutch.  But at the moment the 2017 squad is already better on paper than the one that won 95 games in 2016. 

And like the writer, I think the recent focus on shutdown closers is a bit over the top. When the 2016 season started the Indians and Cubs were both using homegrown, solid but unspectacular closers.  Miller and Chapman were both midseason acquisitions.  No reason the Nats can't do the same based on who is pitching well on a 2017 non-contender, assuming they are a contender at that juncture. Long way to go before worrying about the "good problem" of who closes out a win in October.
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I'm not really there on the team being better on paper than last year's team. The article ignores going from Wilson Ramos to Norris/Lobaton, which offsets the Eaton add. Also down a lot of depth. I'm not really confident in Difo and Heisey as the main backups in place of Espinosa/Drew/Revere.

But a couple more acquisitions can change my mind.

 
SoCalBroncoFan said:
Any chance they let Shawn Kelley close? I picked him up in a couple of keeper leagues specifically because I thought they might save money for other positions and not spend it on a closer.
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Absolutely.  I'd say maybe 30-40%?  The other internal options are probably Glover and Treinen. I seriously doubt they'd roll the dice on Glover, and they like to use Treinen as a rally-killer rather than a closer since he induces so many double play balls.

 
Don Quixote said:
I'm not really there on the team being better on paper than last year's team. The article ignores going from Wilson Ramos to Norris/Lobaton, which offsets the Eaton add. Also down a lot of depth. I'm not really confident in Difo and Heisey as the main backups in place of Espinosa/Drew/Revere.

But a couple more acquisitions can change my mind.
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Ramos was at 3.5 fWAR for his career year last year. Norris was consistently around 2.4 the last three seasons before this one.  If Norris can bounce back to his 2013-15 levels or close to it the loss shouldn't be TOO bad, certainly not as much as they'll pick up by upgrading Revere/Espi/79 games of Turner to Eaton/Turner hopefully.

Agree on the bench, but that always fills out a little later. 

 
It looks like Holland is going to the Rockies.  And the Nats announced that there will not be an FDR racing president.

I might be more disappointed about the latter.

 
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