* San Fransisco 49ers -3 (+104 @ Pinnacle)
Of all the three point road favorites this week, this has to be my favorite. First of all, Seattle is currently in disarray. Their starting Left Tackle is hurt, they just released their #1 WR, and their defensive line is among the worst in the NFL. They're clearly in rebuilding mode, and the best phase of their game, their rushing attack, is matched up with what will be one of the best rush defenses in the NFL in 2010.
Last season, the 49ers lost this game. While that's a slightly discouraging sign, there is no doubt in my mind that the 49ers were the clearly superior team in the game. Their loss can be chalked up to bad decisions and bad breaks, and it's clear the 49ers could have easily put about 17 more points on the board had they just taken advantage of opportunities. This year the 49ers will benefit from the return of one of their best offensive linemen, and Frank Gore should shred a pitiful Seattle defense. Look for the 49ers to win this one in a big way.
* Packers/Eagles OVER 47.5 (-106)
Green Bay's offense has flown high this preseason, with Rodgers and the passing game looking nearly unstoppable. The Packers' biggest weakness last season, their offensive line, has been somewhat addressed this offseason, which should ensure that Rodgers sees more time to throw the ball than last year and doesn't get sacked nearly as much. The Eagles rush defense is clearly superior to their pass defense, meaning that the Packers should focus their attack more through the air, which will certainly be beneficial to the over.
While Philadelphia now has QB Kevin Kolb at the helm, despite a shaky preseason I remain convinced that he's not much of a downgrade if any at all from McNabb. He certainly has some great weapons at his disposal with DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin, and much like the Packers the offense is facing a defense that is great against the run. The Eagles will likely have to turn to the passing game to pick on a suspect Packers' secondary, especially if they want any hope of keeping up with Green Bay on the scoreboard. This game has all the makings of a shootout, and I fully expect a high scoring affair that may come down to who has the ball last.
* Browns/Bucs OVER 37 (-106)
I botched games similar to this last year, but believe me I've learned from it. Last season I took two stabs at Browns unders, against the Lions and against the Chiefs. I figured in both situations that the crummy offenses would make the defenses look good, yet in both cases the games turned into shootouts and I lost the bets. This game looks very similar to me, except I actually am a believer in the Tampa Bay offense. While Freeman is returning from a thumb injury, he's been practicing all week and all signs point to him being good to go come Sunday. I've loved what I've seen out of the Tampa Bay passing game this preseason, and against what I believe to be an unimproved Browns defense the Bucs should have no trouble coming by points. The Browns' offense has also looked surprisingly good this preseason, with Jack Delhomme throwing the ball much more accurately than he did last season as a Panther. The Bucs will be missing their top CB Aqib Talib due to a suspension, so the Browns should have no problem moving the ball down the field on this defense. While I lean towards the Bucs winning this one, I feel more confident in the over coming through so I'll stick with that as my play.
* Ravens/Jets UNDER 35.5 (+100)
I was set to roll with the Ravens in this one, but the return of Revis to the Jets has given me a fresh perspective on this one. Baltimore's offense has been raved about this preseason, but with Revis covering Boldin now there's a good chance that he doesn't make much noise in this game. The Ravens' next best option at WR is Mason, and with Cromartie covering him I've got to think that the Ravens won't get a whole lot done through the passing game. Likely, Baltimore will turn to Ray Rice to win the game for them. The Jets were one of the better teams against the run last year, and playing at home on Sunday night I'd have to believe that while they won't completely contain Rice, they can certainly limit the damage he does.
The Jets offense has been unspectacular all preseason, and will be playing this one without WR Santonio Holmes. For the Jets, it all starts with the run, a problem because they are facing the league's #1 rush defense from last year. Assuming the Jets can't get their running game going, which I don't imagine they will be able to, they're going to have to turn to Mark Sanchez to make plays for them. While Baltimore's secondary is currently a bit shaky, you can bet that they'll turn up the pressure on the young QB and I'd imagine he'd be good for a turnover or two. I can't see either of these teams topping 17 points, in reality I think we may see a 16-10 type of game. It'll certainly be a great defensive battle to watch, and while I'm not sure which team comes out ahead, I'm confident that it stays a low scoring game.
Good luck this week everyone!
Saints -4.5. Wish I woulda doubled up and bet the under, but hindsight is 60/40 and so forth. Happy to get a win 1st game out!
Saints -4.5. Wish I woulda doubled up and bet the under, but hindsight is 60/40 and so forth. Happy to get a win 1st game out!
Saints -4.5. Wish I woulda doubled up and bet the under, but hindsight is 60/40 and so forth. Happy to get a win 1st game out!
I'm sure lots of people are lovers and haters of GHartley tonight.
Saints -4.5. Wish I woulda doubled up and bet the under, but hindsight is 60/40 and so forth. Happy to get a win 1st game out!
I'm sure lots of people are lovers and haters of GHartley tonight.
I see blowout city as well. I think the Hawks will be getting 10+ points on a regular basis when Vegas finally catches up to them in a few weeks.
I see blowout city as well. I think the Hawks will be getting 10+ points on a regular basis when Vegas finally catches up to them in a few weeks.
I still think the Hawks suck tho and I overrated the 9ers just a wee bit.1-2 week 1. But my one win was my biggest play of the day, so on the plus side. And that's always a positive. Don't like much tonight, but I can't sit and watch without some action. Liking a small play on UND NJY, maybe a parlay Bal/Und.
