crnerblitz
Footballguy
I aprove of this message. While I'm not quite ready to put down SF I am certainly thinking I should. I may do a late update to my picks if I can talk myself into it a bit more.
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
*** Official Week 5 NFL Wagering Thread *** (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter TheWick
- Start date
The Duff Man
Footballguy
I have definitely tempered my pro thoughts on this one and am looking at other options instead.gkza said:
The Duff Man
Footballguy
At this point I am thinking SF is a great value play. SF should be able to run it enough to keep the game close at home. The Pats are giving up 5.0 ypc through three games and SF is gaining 4.7. Scheming on defense isn't going to accomplish anything if SF can just smash them in the mouth over and over again. Only question could be whether Martz will do it..
tribecalledjeff
Footballguy
A lot of sharp money coming in on Tennessee. I hate that these two teams are playing each other, they've both made a lot of money for me so far this season as they've been underrated all year. Considering buying off of my Balt play a bit and I probably should have just stayed away from this game completely.
The_Man
Footballguy
I'm 6-0 on these two teams -- the only game I didn't play was Tenn in Week One. But I am staying away from this one. I will say, though, that Baltimore is a very underrated home team and love to see them getting points at home. I'm also looking forward to jumping back on Baltimore next week -- after playing Pittsburgh and Tennessee in back-to-back weeks, I think people will be underrating their offense (which, to me, already looks better with Flacco/Cameron than it ever did with Billick/Boller) and they could give Indy a very tough time.
JKL
Footballguy
Now you've gone and jinxed me, at least that will be my story if I have a bad week. I know I won't keep this pace up all year:week 1: 4-3
week 2: 5-1-1
week 3: 3-2
week 4: 5-1
overall: 17-7-1
I've written a fair amount about home field advantage, and some of that research relates to some of my selections this week.
Temperature and Climate
Moving to a New Stadium
Team Efficiency Characteristics and HFA
The data is in the links. The cliff notes versions are: 1) In divisional matchups, games between teams from similar playing climates exhibit virtually no home field advantage, while games between rivals from diverse climates have strong HFA; 2) when a team moves into a new stadium, it takes time for HFA to build up, and it is strongest the second season in the new stadium, and familiarity and comfort level of the road team with the playing venue may play a strong factor in HFA; and 3) poor offensive passing/good defensive run stopping teams exhibit strong home/road splits, while the opposite-good offensive passing/bad defensive run stopping teams exhibit small home/road splits.
Here are the picks:
Washington +6: same climate rivals, you are basically getting about 2.5 points of value there if we assume a standard 3 points for home field, plus Washington is still undervalued because people have stronger memories of the opening game due to primacy, and Westbrook is questionable.
Arizona -1: one of the coolest climate teams early in season travels to the warmest, to a stadium they have never seen. Buffalo is 10-27 in the Mountain and Pacific Time Zones going all the way back to 1970. Arizona gets to return home, where they still enjoy a strong home field advantage, after playing two straight on the East Coast and not being home for over a week.
Detroit +3.5: Home team is 42-23 SU in this series since Detroit stopped playing outdoors and moved to Silverdome back in 1975. I mentioned last week I think Detroit will start being a value play for the rest of the season, and I think that value starts here. By the numbers through three weeks, you should take Chicago. But by the numbers, projected out over the whole season, Detroit would be one of the worst teams of all time. I think they rebound to merely "not good" and will present value.
Baltimore +3: Two teams that are perfect ATS. Two defensive teams that are not great at passing, and Tennessee has played 3 home games plus one game at 0-4 Cincinnati. Baltimore will be a good home play all season long.
Denver -3: Tampa is 6-30 playing in the Mountain and Pacific Time Zones in their history. That's not a typo. I know they have not been the model franchise for their entire history, but since 1999, over a period when they made the playoffs 6 times and the conference championship game twice, they are 1-8 out West, with 8 losses in a row. They are 1-2 all time in Denver, the one winning coming on the final week of the 1993 season after Denver had just been eliminated from the playoffs. They haven't played in Denver since 1996 and have never played in Invesco. I know Denver has defensive issues, but I like Denver to bounce back in the much anticipated return of Brian Griese.
Islander
Footballguy
Added more on DET SU this morning at +165. The Greek's line is more generous than Pinny and other shops at the moment, I saw some value there. Not quite as much as +4-110 I got earlier this week however, but I am pretty happy about it.
tribecalledjeff
Footballguy
Final card after buying off of a few things this morning. NO is still a fairly square play, if it steams to Minn +4 tomorrow, which it might, I may get off of it.
Seattle +7
Zona pk
Balt +3
Balt/Tenn o33
Pitt +5
NO -3
SF +3
Miami +7'
Atlanta +7
I too feel that Detroit is the right side, but living in Detroit and having to watch every game, the thought of putting money on them makes me want to puke. I just can't do it.
Good luck all
Seattle +7
Zona pk
Balt +3
Balt/Tenn o33
Pitt +5
NO -3
SF +3
Miami +7'
Atlanta +7
I too feel that Detroit is the right side, but living in Detroit and having to watch every game, the thought of putting money on them makes me want to puke. I just can't do it.
Good luck all
Last edited by a moderator:
Angry Beavers
Footballguy
Today's Card:
SF +3 (even)
Zona -1.5 -110
Parlay:
Zona -1.5
Ten O 33.5
KC +9.5
GLTA
SF +3 (even)
Zona -1.5 -110
Parlay:
Zona -1.5
Ten O 33.5
KC +9.5
GLTA
duece2626
Footballguy
BUF +1.5TB +3SD -7IND -3MarshallPlan
Footballguy
Sharp money not coming in on the Titans, this line has been moving slowly the whole week...Sharps on Balt
tribecalledjeff
Footballguy
The public can move the line, too. I'm not convinced that it's sharps that are moving this line. I am keeping the play, though, FWIW.MarshallPlan said:
Manster
Footballguy
i dont know what the whole sharp/square thing is and i dont follow the gordon method or whatever. i bet with my gut, which prolly does just as goood/bad as the rest of the methods.
that said, i like da Bears. they are a decent team with a dam good defense. neckbeard limits his mistakes, they win by at least a TD.
that said, i like da Bears. they are a decent team with a dam good defense. neckbeard limits his mistakes, they win by at least a TD.
Sorry for the late post:
Plays were e-mailed out Saturday AM and Chicago was added earlier this AM.
Miami +7 (Bodog/5Dimes)
Tennessee -1 (-123 @ Pinny)
Chicago -3
Miami +7
* Chargers are 0-4 ATS since 2001 when traveling to the East Coast to play an opponent who has a losing record. (they are 2-2 ATS when that opponent has a winning record)
* In the last two seasons, San Diego is a mere 3-7 ATS on the road vs. non-divisional opponents, including 1-4 ATS in the first 9 weeks of the season. As road favorites of more than 1 point in these games, they are 1-4 ATS, failing to cover by an average of 4 points and winning by an average of 2 points.
* Miami is 5-2-1 ATS off their bye week since 2001, including 1-0-1 at home. Last year off their bye, Miami held Buffalo to a tight, low scoring 13-10 loss as +3 dogs.
* Miami is 6-1 ATS and 4-3 SU as a home dog of 3.5 or more in a non-division game, covering by an average of 10 points. If home dog of 4 or more they are a perfect 5-0 ATS, winning 3 outright and covering by an average of 15 points.
* A line of Mia +7 marks the 4th largest home underdog line in 20 years for Miami. Larger lines inclued +16 to the 2007 Undefeated NE Patriots and their early season covering machine, +9.5 to the 2007 SB Champion NY Giants, and +9.5 to the 2004 SB Champion NE Patriots on MNF, a game which Miami won outright. In those three prior games, Miami was 2-1 ATS, including a 3 point loss to the Giants last year.
* Teams who were favored the week before yet were losing at the start of the 4th quarter and then scored 12+ more points then their opponent in the 4th quarter are 1-8-1 ATS as a road the following week including 0-7-1 ATS. On average, they have failed to cover by 8 points. In addition, they are just 5-5 SU and have, on average, lost outright by an average of 4 points.
Yes, Miami has a slight bit of value sucked out of them for destroying the Patriots, but clearly based on historical lines, Miami is getting a TON of points here. May not seem like it, but the numbers don't lie - 4th largest line for them in the last 20 years. This line also ties the third largest line that the Chargers have ever laid in a non-divisional road game in the last 20 years. They were favored twice by 10 in Cleveland (04) and SF (06) and covered in both. But they were favored by 7 in Minnesota (07) and 6 in NY (Jets 05) and were 0-2 ATS.
If Miami played this game immediately after the NE game, I would not be siding with them. They really expended maximum effort and came away on cloud 9. But they have had 1 week extra to humble themselves and actually have a chip on their shoulder because many commentators have stated the only way they beat NE was to use the tricky Wildcat Formation. The Dolphins are eager to prove that they can win no matter what tricks are used, and are looking to prove a point on Sunday. San Diego has no chance to relax, and after they really dug deep and brought up all emotion and energy last week to come from behind and score 25 4th quarter points. Now they have to travel to Miami as a large road favorite with the enemy New England Patriots awaiting them at home as soon as this game is over. It won't be easy, and may be ugly, but I'll take the TD and hope for a cover.
Ten -1 (-123 @ Pinny)
First a note on the line. This one is a variety of numbers at a variety of outlets, so do some shopping to get the best line you can. As I type, Skybook and 5Dimes both have -2 out there. I recommend using your own judgement in terms of what you want to buy down to if you can't play at Pinny. My only advice is to not spend more than you would if you didn't buy at all. In other words, if you are laying $500 and you line is -2, lay $500 @ -1.5 but not more than $500. Reason being, I don't want you to be out of pocket more than you would be if the play loses, and any play can lose.
* The last 4 years, the Ravens are 2-5 ATS overall including 1-3 ATS at home and 0-3 ATS as underdogs the week after facing the Steelers
* If they lost to the Steelers in that game, they are 0-3 ATS, failing to cover by an average of 10 points.
* The past 2 seasons, teams who have faced the Steelers the week prior are 3-13 ATS, including 1-6 ATS and 1-6 SU as a dog. If after week 2, they are 0-6 ATS and 0-6 SU, losing by an average of 21 points and failing to cover by an average of 15.
* The Ravens are 4-8 ATS as home dogs on Sundays since 2002, including 1-5 ATS and SU in non-divisional home dog games. They have lost by an average of 10 and failed to cover by an average of 14 points.
* There have been 19 times since 1990 where a team has ridden a 4 game win streak up to it's final game before a bye. That team has gone 16-5 SU and 11-8-2 ATS in that game, winning by an average of 12 points.
* If the team started out 4-0, they are 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in their week 5 matchup, winning by an average of 15 and covering by an average of 6.
* Small sample size, but in the first half of the season, teams with no losses and at least 3 wins, heading into their bye week next week are 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS as road favorites
* Since division restructuring in 2002, Tennessee is 5-1 ATS and 5-1 SU prior to their bye week, though this number included 4 games where they were underdogs, in which they went 3-1 ATS and 3-1 SU in those games.
* As favorites prior the a bye, they are 2-0 ATS and SU.
* Teams who have faced the Vikings the prior week are 13-4 ATS, including 5-2 ATS if favored. So far this season, they are 2-1 ATS with the only loss being Jaguars's upset over the Colts
A lot of trends here I uncovered in my research. The scariest one from a Ten backer's perspective:
* Home dogs w/ a line of between +2 and +3 and a low total (less than 35) are 15-7-2 ATS since 1992, and 14-10 SU
* Since 2000, they are 7-2-1 ATS and 7-3 SU, the only losses coming in weeks 13 and 16. Prior to week 13, they are 7-0-1 ATS and 7-1 SU.
* If they covered their last game, the dog is 4-0-1 ATS and if the game is not a primetime game, they are 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS
It is a scary trend to be sure, but looking specifically at the Ravens as home dogs:
* Any home game where the Ravens were lined as dogs between +2 and +3.5 since 2002, they wound up 1-6 ATS and 1-6 SU, losing by an average of 6 points and failing to cover by an average of 9
I will first put out on the record that both of my systems show Baltimore winning this game. However, after studying this game I think if you can get Ten down from 3 (preferably to 1.5) I think it is the play. All Monday Night we had to hear about how great the Baltimore D looks and how dominant they are. And as bad as the Steelers looked and played, and as injured as they were, they still pulled off the victory against this "dominant" Baltimore unit. I also heard Baltimore's Head Coach talking about how they are a "dynasty" in waiting type of team. Big talk from a team that:
* Beat Cincy by 7 at home week 1
* Week 3 was losing 10-6 to Cleveland at home, before taking 2 Cleveland turnovers inside their own 20 for Ravens TDs. In fact, Baltimore's 4 TDs all came from starting the drive at the Cle 12, 35 and 43, as well as a turnover at the Cle 22 returned for TD. Drives started in Baltimore territory resulted in zero points for the Ravens.
* Week 4 beat up on a Steeler team that is not a power that they were in Week 1. In fact, against Cleveland and Philly, Pittsburgh put up no more than 10 points total, yet put up 23 on the Ravens.
As much as anyone wants to say that Tennessee is a "public" team for being 4-0, they are no where near that level where they should be faded just because they have covered well. Also realize, this matchup pits the only two teams who are undefeated ATS, Bal is 3-0 and Ten is 4-0. Believe it or not, the MNF loss in Pittsburgh HELPED the Ten side more than it hurt it. Baltimore really came out and took advantage of Pittsburgh's poor O-Line, and once Pittsburgh slowed down on the blitzing, they could not pressure Flacco, (realize they were missing two starters along their D-Line), and so Flacco actually looked decent. Most who I have talked to see the Steelers as lucky to win, and Baltimore played a much better game. That really helps us here. I see a close game in Baltimore's first real test against a team with both a top defense and rushing attack who can also execute effectively through the air. I look for Tennessee to win this game and therefore I will lay the 1 point.
Chi -3
* Since division restructuring in 2002, winless teams off their bye and are home dogs of a TD or fewer points are 1-4-1 ATS and 1-5 SU. In their 5 losses, they have lost by an average of 8 points and failed to cover by an average of 4 points.
The last 3 seasons, Chicago is 3-2-1 ATS vs. Detroit. Last season, it has been well documented that Detroit won SU in both games and won both ATS. Therefore, prior to 2007, Chicago was 3-0-1 ATS, including 2-0 SU in Detroit.
What happened in 2007? In February, Chicago went to the Superbowl and lost, and we all know what happens after Superbowl appearances. In addition, Chicago was a team in turmoil last year. Losing several coaches, including their DC, losing their starting RB (Thomas Jones), Tank Johnson, and Lance Briggs sat out much of training camp. It's not an excuse, it is the facts. So let's reflect back on those two losses to Detroit:
Week 4 - A 1-2 Chicago team after losing 34-10 to Dallas traveled to Detroit. Deciding to switch QBs, they turned to Brian Griese to start. This game featured two quick scores - a Griese INT returned for a TD, and a Hester kick return for a TD. Griese threw 2 other Ints, and Chicago's starting RB (Cedric Benson) could only run for 50 yards. After allowing 34 fourth quarter points (!!!) by Detroit, Chicago lost by 10.
Week 8 - A 3-4 Chicago team faced a 4-2 Detroit team, this time in Chicago. The results were not much different. Griese threw 4 interceptions, Benson rushed for 50 yards (again), each team scored only 1 TD but Detroit added 3 FGs to come away with the win. Detroit improved to 5-2 and was on its way to try and match Kitna's 10 win prophecy.
The only reason I went into this detail is to illustrate how different these teams are from last season. Chicago is NOT off a Superbowl appearance, they are 2-2 with 2 FG losses against arguably two of the more impressive teams in the NFC right now, the Panthers and the Bucs, and victories over Indy and Philly. Detroit is underachieving and under performing and while typically that does indicate some value, I really don't see it happening this week. Chicago is starting Orton, who has thrown 2 Ints each of the last 2 weeks, but those came against TB and Phi, teams doing very well in takeaways this season.
Meanwhile, Detroit has faced three teams who each are starting QBs who never started a NFL game before this season. GB, SF and ATL have combined to turn the ball over 18 times this year, yet Detroit has taken a whopping ZERO Ints this year and 1 total turnover recovery, a fumble (ranking them last in the NFL). Contributing 6 turnovers themselves, they rank dead last in the NFL at a differential of -5.
The line is not a trap, either. Since 2001, the average line for games in Det nets to a pickem. Chi was road favorites in 4 of those 7 games, and the lines were: -5, -3, -5, -2.5. A -3.5 line here is not a setup, at least not in my mind. It is lined both fairly and correctly, and I will give the FG and pull for a Chi cover.
The only trend that really does scare me is:
* Teams who are off at least 3 losses in a row prior to their bye, who then face a divisional opponent who won the week prior are 8-0-1 ATS and 8-1 SU. If an underdog, they are 5-0-1 ATS, winning outright by an average of 5 points and covering by an average of 9.
It is scary, that is for sure. Fortunately, I can state that teams who are winless and have never covered and are off their bye are 5-5 ATS since 2002, and just 2-3 ATS if dogs of less than 1 TD.
Plays were e-mailed out Saturday AM and Chicago was added earlier this AM.
Miami +7 (Bodog/5Dimes)
Tennessee -1 (-123 @ Pinny)
Chicago -3
Miami +7
* Chargers are 0-4 ATS since 2001 when traveling to the East Coast to play an opponent who has a losing record. (they are 2-2 ATS when that opponent has a winning record)
* In the last two seasons, San Diego is a mere 3-7 ATS on the road vs. non-divisional opponents, including 1-4 ATS in the first 9 weeks of the season. As road favorites of more than 1 point in these games, they are 1-4 ATS, failing to cover by an average of 4 points and winning by an average of 2 points.
* Miami is 5-2-1 ATS off their bye week since 2001, including 1-0-1 at home. Last year off their bye, Miami held Buffalo to a tight, low scoring 13-10 loss as +3 dogs.
* Miami is 6-1 ATS and 4-3 SU as a home dog of 3.5 or more in a non-division game, covering by an average of 10 points. If home dog of 4 or more they are a perfect 5-0 ATS, winning 3 outright and covering by an average of 15 points.
* A line of Mia +7 marks the 4th largest home underdog line in 20 years for Miami. Larger lines inclued +16 to the 2007 Undefeated NE Patriots and their early season covering machine, +9.5 to the 2007 SB Champion NY Giants, and +9.5 to the 2004 SB Champion NE Patriots on MNF, a game which Miami won outright. In those three prior games, Miami was 2-1 ATS, including a 3 point loss to the Giants last year.
* Teams who were favored the week before yet were losing at the start of the 4th quarter and then scored 12+ more points then their opponent in the 4th quarter are 1-8-1 ATS as a road the following week including 0-7-1 ATS. On average, they have failed to cover by 8 points. In addition, they are just 5-5 SU and have, on average, lost outright by an average of 4 points.
Yes, Miami has a slight bit of value sucked out of them for destroying the Patriots, but clearly based on historical lines, Miami is getting a TON of points here. May not seem like it, but the numbers don't lie - 4th largest line for them in the last 20 years. This line also ties the third largest line that the Chargers have ever laid in a non-divisional road game in the last 20 years. They were favored twice by 10 in Cleveland (04) and SF (06) and covered in both. But they were favored by 7 in Minnesota (07) and 6 in NY (Jets 05) and were 0-2 ATS.
If Miami played this game immediately after the NE game, I would not be siding with them. They really expended maximum effort and came away on cloud 9. But they have had 1 week extra to humble themselves and actually have a chip on their shoulder because many commentators have stated the only way they beat NE was to use the tricky Wildcat Formation. The Dolphins are eager to prove that they can win no matter what tricks are used, and are looking to prove a point on Sunday. San Diego has no chance to relax, and after they really dug deep and brought up all emotion and energy last week to come from behind and score 25 4th quarter points. Now they have to travel to Miami as a large road favorite with the enemy New England Patriots awaiting them at home as soon as this game is over. It won't be easy, and may be ugly, but I'll take the TD and hope for a cover.
Ten -1 (-123 @ Pinny)
First a note on the line. This one is a variety of numbers at a variety of outlets, so do some shopping to get the best line you can. As I type, Skybook and 5Dimes both have -2 out there. I recommend using your own judgement in terms of what you want to buy down to if you can't play at Pinny. My only advice is to not spend more than you would if you didn't buy at all. In other words, if you are laying $500 and you line is -2, lay $500 @ -1.5 but not more than $500. Reason being, I don't want you to be out of pocket more than you would be if the play loses, and any play can lose.
* The last 4 years, the Ravens are 2-5 ATS overall including 1-3 ATS at home and 0-3 ATS as underdogs the week after facing the Steelers
* If they lost to the Steelers in that game, they are 0-3 ATS, failing to cover by an average of 10 points.
* The past 2 seasons, teams who have faced the Steelers the week prior are 3-13 ATS, including 1-6 ATS and 1-6 SU as a dog. If after week 2, they are 0-6 ATS and 0-6 SU, losing by an average of 21 points and failing to cover by an average of 15.
* The Ravens are 4-8 ATS as home dogs on Sundays since 2002, including 1-5 ATS and SU in non-divisional home dog games. They have lost by an average of 10 and failed to cover by an average of 14 points.
* There have been 19 times since 1990 where a team has ridden a 4 game win streak up to it's final game before a bye. That team has gone 16-5 SU and 11-8-2 ATS in that game, winning by an average of 12 points.
* If the team started out 4-0, they are 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in their week 5 matchup, winning by an average of 15 and covering by an average of 6.
* Small sample size, but in the first half of the season, teams with no losses and at least 3 wins, heading into their bye week next week are 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS as road favorites
* Since division restructuring in 2002, Tennessee is 5-1 ATS and 5-1 SU prior to their bye week, though this number included 4 games where they were underdogs, in which they went 3-1 ATS and 3-1 SU in those games.
* As favorites prior the a bye, they are 2-0 ATS and SU.
* Teams who have faced the Vikings the prior week are 13-4 ATS, including 5-2 ATS if favored. So far this season, they are 2-1 ATS with the only loss being Jaguars's upset over the Colts
A lot of trends here I uncovered in my research. The scariest one from a Ten backer's perspective:
* Home dogs w/ a line of between +2 and +3 and a low total (less than 35) are 15-7-2 ATS since 1992, and 14-10 SU
* Since 2000, they are 7-2-1 ATS and 7-3 SU, the only losses coming in weeks 13 and 16. Prior to week 13, they are 7-0-1 ATS and 7-1 SU.
* If they covered their last game, the dog is 4-0-1 ATS and if the game is not a primetime game, they are 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS
It is a scary trend to be sure, but looking specifically at the Ravens as home dogs:
* Any home game where the Ravens were lined as dogs between +2 and +3.5 since 2002, they wound up 1-6 ATS and 1-6 SU, losing by an average of 6 points and failing to cover by an average of 9
I will first put out on the record that both of my systems show Baltimore winning this game. However, after studying this game I think if you can get Ten down from 3 (preferably to 1.5) I think it is the play. All Monday Night we had to hear about how great the Baltimore D looks and how dominant they are. And as bad as the Steelers looked and played, and as injured as they were, they still pulled off the victory against this "dominant" Baltimore unit. I also heard Baltimore's Head Coach talking about how they are a "dynasty" in waiting type of team. Big talk from a team that:
* Beat Cincy by 7 at home week 1
* Week 3 was losing 10-6 to Cleveland at home, before taking 2 Cleveland turnovers inside their own 20 for Ravens TDs. In fact, Baltimore's 4 TDs all came from starting the drive at the Cle 12, 35 and 43, as well as a turnover at the Cle 22 returned for TD. Drives started in Baltimore territory resulted in zero points for the Ravens.
* Week 4 beat up on a Steeler team that is not a power that they were in Week 1. In fact, against Cleveland and Philly, Pittsburgh put up no more than 10 points total, yet put up 23 on the Ravens.
As much as anyone wants to say that Tennessee is a "public" team for being 4-0, they are no where near that level where they should be faded just because they have covered well. Also realize, this matchup pits the only two teams who are undefeated ATS, Bal is 3-0 and Ten is 4-0. Believe it or not, the MNF loss in Pittsburgh HELPED the Ten side more than it hurt it. Baltimore really came out and took advantage of Pittsburgh's poor O-Line, and once Pittsburgh slowed down on the blitzing, they could not pressure Flacco, (realize they were missing two starters along their D-Line), and so Flacco actually looked decent. Most who I have talked to see the Steelers as lucky to win, and Baltimore played a much better game. That really helps us here. I see a close game in Baltimore's first real test against a team with both a top defense and rushing attack who can also execute effectively through the air. I look for Tennessee to win this game and therefore I will lay the 1 point.
Chi -3
* Since division restructuring in 2002, winless teams off their bye and are home dogs of a TD or fewer points are 1-4-1 ATS and 1-5 SU. In their 5 losses, they have lost by an average of 8 points and failed to cover by an average of 4 points.
The last 3 seasons, Chicago is 3-2-1 ATS vs. Detroit. Last season, it has been well documented that Detroit won SU in both games and won both ATS. Therefore, prior to 2007, Chicago was 3-0-1 ATS, including 2-0 SU in Detroit.
What happened in 2007? In February, Chicago went to the Superbowl and lost, and we all know what happens after Superbowl appearances. In addition, Chicago was a team in turmoil last year. Losing several coaches, including their DC, losing their starting RB (Thomas Jones), Tank Johnson, and Lance Briggs sat out much of training camp. It's not an excuse, it is the facts. So let's reflect back on those two losses to Detroit:
Week 4 - A 1-2 Chicago team after losing 34-10 to Dallas traveled to Detroit. Deciding to switch QBs, they turned to Brian Griese to start. This game featured two quick scores - a Griese INT returned for a TD, and a Hester kick return for a TD. Griese threw 2 other Ints, and Chicago's starting RB (Cedric Benson) could only run for 50 yards. After allowing 34 fourth quarter points (!!!) by Detroit, Chicago lost by 10.
Week 8 - A 3-4 Chicago team faced a 4-2 Detroit team, this time in Chicago. The results were not much different. Griese threw 4 interceptions, Benson rushed for 50 yards (again), each team scored only 1 TD but Detroit added 3 FGs to come away with the win. Detroit improved to 5-2 and was on its way to try and match Kitna's 10 win prophecy.
The only reason I went into this detail is to illustrate how different these teams are from last season. Chicago is NOT off a Superbowl appearance, they are 2-2 with 2 FG losses against arguably two of the more impressive teams in the NFC right now, the Panthers and the Bucs, and victories over Indy and Philly. Detroit is underachieving and under performing and while typically that does indicate some value, I really don't see it happening this week. Chicago is starting Orton, who has thrown 2 Ints each of the last 2 weeks, but those came against TB and Phi, teams doing very well in takeaways this season.
Meanwhile, Detroit has faced three teams who each are starting QBs who never started a NFL game before this season. GB, SF and ATL have combined to turn the ball over 18 times this year, yet Detroit has taken a whopping ZERO Ints this year and 1 total turnover recovery, a fumble (ranking them last in the NFL). Contributing 6 turnovers themselves, they rank dead last in the NFL at a differential of -5.
The line is not a trap, either. Since 2001, the average line for games in Det nets to a pickem. Chi was road favorites in 4 of those 7 games, and the lines were: -5, -3, -5, -2.5. A -3.5 line here is not a setup, at least not in my mind. It is lined both fairly and correctly, and I will give the FG and pull for a Chi cover.
The only trend that really does scare me is:
* Teams who are off at least 3 losses in a row prior to their bye, who then face a divisional opponent who won the week prior are 8-0-1 ATS and 8-1 SU. If an underdog, they are 5-0-1 ATS, winning outright by an average of 5 points and covering by an average of 9.
It is scary, that is for sure. Fortunately, I can state that teams who are winless and have never covered and are off their bye are 5-5 ATS since 2002, and just 2-3 ATS if dogs of less than 1 TD.
Billy Bats
Footballguy
wk1 3-0
wk2 1-1-1
wk3 1-2
wk4 1-2
Things haven't been good, gonna get back on the winning side this week...
JAX -4
CAR -9.5
MIA +6.5
GOOD LUCK
wk2 1-1-1
wk3 1-2
wk4 1-2
Things haven't been good, gonna get back on the winning side this week...
JAX -4
CAR -9.5
MIA +6.5
GOOD LUCK
JGalligan
Footballguy
I really wish I had extra money left over to put money on the Colts. Matt Schaub is out, so the Colts (-3) is looking very, very, enticing.
My picks (to go on record):
Week Four: 3-3
Week Five:
MIA (+225)
DET (+3.5)
BUF (+1.5)
Parlay: - DEN (-3)
- TB @ DEN OVER/UNDER (47)
TEN (-3)
NE (-3.5)
CIN (+17.5)
All bets are single unless otherwise noted. Damnit, I want to take the Colts!
My picks (to go on record):
Week Four: 3-3
Week Five:
MIA (+225)
DET (+3.5)
BUF (+1.5)
Parlay: - DEN (-3)
- TB @ DEN OVER/UNDER (47)
TEN (-3)
NE (-3.5)
CIN (+17.5)
All bets are single unless otherwise noted. Damnit, I want to take the Colts!
Last edited by a moderator:
JGalligan
Footballguy
Sorry for the late postlays were e-mailed out Saturday AM and Chicago was added earlier this AM.Miami +7 (Bodog/5Dimes)Tennessee -1 (-123 @ Pinny)Chicago -3Miami +7 * Chargers are 0-4 ATS since 2001 when traveling to the East Coast to play an opponent who has a losing record. (they are 2-2 ATS when that opponent has a winning record) * In the last two seasons, San Diego is a mere 3-7 ATS on the road vs. non-divisional opponents, including 1-4 ATS in the first 9 weeks of the season. As road favorites of more than 1 point in these games, they are 1-4 ATS, failing to cover by an average of 4 points and winning by an average of 2 points. * Miami is 5-2-1 ATS off their bye week since 2001, including 1-0-1 at home. Last year off their bye, Miami held Buffalo to a tight, low scoring 13-10 loss as +3 dogs. * Miami is 6-1 ATS and 4-3 SU as a home dog of 3.5 or more in a non-division game, covering by an average of 10 points. If home dog of 4 or more they are a perfect 5-0 ATS, winning 3 outright and covering by an average of 15 points. * A line of Mia +7 marks the 4th largest home underdog line in 20 years for Miami. Larger lines inclued +16 to the 2007 Undefeated NE Patriots and their early season covering machine, +9.5 to the 2007 SB Champion NY Giants, and +9.5 to the 2004 SB Champion NE Patriots on MNF, a game which Miami won outright. In those three prior games, Miami was 2-1 ATS, including a 3 point loss to the Giants last year. * Teams who were favored the week before yet were losing at the start of the 4th quarter and then scored 12+ more points then their opponent in the 4th quarter are 1-8-1 ATS as a road the following week including 0-7-1 ATS. On average, they have failed to cover by 8 points. In addition, they are just 5-5 SU and have, on average, lost outright by an average of 4 points.Yes, Miami has a slight bit of value sucked out of them for destroying the Patriots, but clearly based on historical lines, Miami is getting a TON of points here. May not seem like it, but the numbers don't lie - 4th largest line for them in the last 20 years. This line also ties the third largest line that the Chargers have ever laid in a non-divisional road game in the last 20 years. They were favored twice by 10 in Cleveland (04) and SF (06) and covered in both. But they were favored by 7 in Minnesota (07) and 6 in NY (Jets 05) and were 0-2 ATS.If Miami played this game immediately after the NE game, I would not be siding with them. They really expended maximum effort and came away on cloud 9. But they have had 1 week extra to humble themselves and actually have a chip on their shoulder because many commentators have stated the only way they beat NE was to use the tricky Wildcat Formation. The Dolphins are eager to prove that they can win no matter what tricks are used, and are looking to prove a point on Sunday. San Diego has no chance to relax, and after they really dug deep and brought up all emotion and energy last week to come from behind and score 25 4th quarter points. Now they have to travel to Miami as a large road favorite with the enemy New England Patriots awaiting them at home as soon as this game is over. It won't be easy, and may be ugly, but I'll take the TD and hope for a cover.Ten -1 (-123 @ Pinny)First a note on the line. This one is a variety of numbers at a variety of outlets, so do some shopping to get the best line you can. As I type, Skybook and 5Dimes both have -2 out there. I recommend using your own judgement in terms of what you want to buy down to if you can't play at Pinny. My only advice is to not spend more than you would if you didn't buy at all. In other words, if you are laying $500 and you line is -2, lay $500 @ -1.5 but not more than $500. Reason being, I don't want you to be out of pocket more than you would be if the play loses, and any play can lose. * The last 4 years, the Ravens are 2-5 ATS overall including 1-3 ATS at home and 0-3 ATS as underdogs the week after facing the Steelers * If they lost to the Steelers in that game, they are 0-3 ATS, failing to cover by an average of 10 points. * The past 2 seasons, teams who have faced the Steelers the week prior are 3-13 ATS, including 1-6 ATS and 1-6 SU as a dog. If after week 2, they are 0-6 ATS and 0-6 SU, losing by an average of 21 points and failing to cover by an average of 15. * The Ravens are 4-8 ATS as home dogs on Sundays since 2002, including 1-5 ATS and SU in non-divisional home dog games. They have lost by an average of 10 and failed to cover by an average of 14 points. * There have been 19 times since 1990 where a team has ridden a 4 game win streak up to it's final game before a bye. That team has gone 16-5 SU and 11-8-2 ATS in that game, winning by an average of 12 points. * If the team started out 4-0, they are 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in their week 5 matchup, winning by an average of 15 and covering by an average of 6. * Small sample size, but in the first half of the season, teams with no losses and at least 3 wins, heading into their bye week next week are 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS as road favorites * Since division restructuring in 2002, Tennessee is 5-1 ATS and 5-1 SU prior to their bye week, though this number included 4 games where they were underdogs, in which they went 3-1 ATS and 3-1 SU in those games. * As favorites prior the a bye, they are 2-0 ATS and SU. * Teams who have faced the Vikings the prior week are 13-4 ATS, including 5-2 ATS if favored. So far this season, they are 2-1 ATS with the only loss being Jaguars's upset over the ColtsA lot of trends here I uncovered in my research. The scariest one from a Ten backer's perspective: * Home dogs w/ a line of between +2 and +3 and a low total (less than 35) are 15-7-2 ATS since 1992, and 14-10 SU * Since 2000, they are 7-2-1 ATS and 7-3 SU, the only losses coming in weeks 13 and 16. Prior to week 13, they are 7-0-1 ATS and 7-1 SU. * If they covered their last game, the dog is 4-0-1 ATS and if the game is not a primetime game, they are 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATSIt is a scary trend to be sure, but looking specifically at the Ravens as home dogs: * Any home game where the Ravens were lined as dogs between +2 and +3.5 since 2002, they wound up 1-6 ATS and 1-6 SU, losing by an average of 6 points and failing to cover by an average of 9I will first put out on the record that both of my systems show Baltimore winning this game. However, after studying this game I think if you can get Ten down from 3 (preferably to 1.5) I think it is the play. All Monday Night we had to hear about how great the Baltimore D looks and how dominant they are. And as bad as the Steelers looked and played, and as injured as they were, they still pulled off the victory against this "dominant" Baltimore unit. I also heard Baltimore's Head Coach talking about how they are a "dynasty" in waiting type of team. Big talk from a team that: * Beat Cincy by 7 at home week 1 * Week 3 was losing 10-6 to Cleveland at home, before taking 2 Cleveland turnovers inside their own 20 for Ravens TDs. In fact, Baltimore's 4 TDs all came from starting the drive at the Cle 12, 35 and 43, as well as a turnover at the Cle 22 returned for TD. Drives started in Baltimore territory resulted in zero points for the Ravens. * Week 4 beat up on a Steeler team that is not a power that they were in Week 1. In fact, against Cleveland and Philly, Pittsburgh put up no more than 10 points total, yet put up 23 on the Ravens.As much as anyone wants to say that Tennessee is a "public" team for being 4-0, they are no where near that level where they should be faded just because they have covered well. Also realize, this matchup pits the only two teams who are undefeated ATS, Bal is 3-0 and Ten is 4-0. Believe it or not, the MNF loss in Pittsburgh HELPED the Ten side more than it hurt it. Baltimore really came out and took advantage of Pittsburgh's poor O-Line, and once Pittsburgh slowed down on the blitzing, they could not pressure Flacco, (realize they were missing two starters along their D-Line), and so Flacco actually looked decent. Most who I have talked to see the Steelers as lucky to win, and Baltimore played a much better game. That really helps us here. I see a close game in Baltimore's first real test against a team with both a top defense and rushing attack who can also execute effectively through the air. I look for Tennessee to win this game and therefore I will lay the 1 point.Chi -3 * Since division restructuring in 2002, winless teams off their bye and are home dogs of a TD or fewer points are 1-4-1 ATS and 1-5 SU. In their 5 losses, they have lost by an average of 8 points and failed to cover by an average of 4 points.The last 3 seasons, Chicago is 3-2-1 ATS vs. Detroit. Last season, it has been well documented that Detroit won SU in both games and won both ATS. Therefore, prior to 2007, Chicago was 3-0-1 ATS, including 2-0 SU in Detroit.What happened in 2007? In February, Chicago went to the Superbowl and lost, and we all know what happens after Superbowl appearances. In addition, Chicago was a team in turmoil last year. Losing several coaches, including their DC, losing their starting RB (Thomas Jones), Tank Johnson, and Lance Briggs sat out much of training camp. It's not an excuse, it is the facts. So let's reflect back on those two losses to Detroit:Week 4 - A 1-2 Chicago team after losing 34-10 to Dallas traveled to Detroit. Deciding to switch QBs, they turned to Brian Griese to start. This game featured two quick scores - a Griese INT returned for a TD, and a Hester kick return for a TD. Griese threw 2 other Ints, and Chicago's starting RB (Cedric Benson) could only run for 50 yards. After allowing 34 fourth quarter points (!!!) by Detroit, Chicago lost by 10.Week 8 - A 3-4 Chicago team faced a 4-2 Detroit team, this time in Chicago. The results were not much different. Griese threw 4 interceptions, Benson rushed for 50 yards (again), each team scored only 1 TD but Detroit added 3 FGs to come away with the win. Detroit improved to 5-2 and was on its way to try and match Kitna's 10 win prophecy.The only reason I went into this detail is to illustrate how different these teams are from last season. Chicago is NOT off a Superbowl appearance, they are 2-2 with 2 FG losses against arguably two of the more impressive teams in the NFC right now, the Panthers and the Bucs, and victories over Indy and Philly. Detroit is underachieving and under performing and while typically that does indicate some value, I really don't see it happening this week. Chicago is starting Orton, who has thrown 2 Ints each of the last 2 weeks, but those came against TB and Phi, teams doing very well in takeaways this season.Meanwhile, Detroit has faced three teams who each are starting QBs who never started a NFL game before this season. GB, SF and ATL have combined to turn the ball over 18 times this year, yet Detroit has taken a whopping ZERO Ints this year and 1 total turnover recovery, a fumble (ranking them last in the NFL). Contributing 6 turnovers themselves, they rank dead last in the NFL at a differential of -5.The line is not a trap, either. Since 2001, the average line for games in Det nets to a pickem. Chi was road favorites in 4 of those 7 games, and the lines were: -5, -3, -5, -2.5. A -3.5 line here is not a setup, at least not in my mind. It is lined both fairly and correctly, and I will give the FG and pull for a Chi cover.The only trend that really does scare me is: * Teams who are off at least 3 losses in a row prior to their bye, who then face a divisional opponent who won the week prior are 8-0-1 ATS and 8-1 SU. If an underdog, they are 5-0-1 ATS, winning outright by an average of 5 points and covering by an average of 9.It is scary, that is for sure. Fortunately, I can state that teams who are winless and have never covered and are off their bye are 5-5 ATS since 2002, and just 2-3 ATS if dogs of less than 1 TD.
Good stuff, man!Bills_Fan11
Footballguy
FWIW (probably not much) I basically never pick road favorites and haven't yet this year: not the Jets @Miami, not Detroit @Atl, not GB @Detroit, not Pit @Cleveland, not NO @Wash, not Denver @KC, not SD @Oakland....I like NE here because their home/road splits seem a lot less signficant than other teams, they've been hearing about how much they suck for 2 weeks, and I've heard them counted out too many times (week 2 home shutout loss to Denver = "zomg no WR's they're done"!). This isn't to say it's not square thinking.....
The Duff Man
Footballguy
The injuries were already factored into the line
Islander
Footballguy
31-0Mind bogglingOff a bye at home after going 0-3 and needing to regroup
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
They are? i thought everyone knew they were horrible.
Islander
Footballguy
I guess I did notThey are? i thought everyone knew they were horrible.
3-0 Yesterday brings my YTD mark to 17-4 (81%).Hope you guys are getting these e-mailed to you, because I send them Fri/Night or Sat/AM. Good luck tonight in your plays.
Sorry for the late post
tribecalledjeff
Footballguy
I've already locked in Balt +7, Zona +6, and STL +14, NYG -7 (-120) for week 6. IMO all 4 lines are off and will move a bit in my favor before next weekend, if not in the next day or two.
Last edited by a moderator:
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
No way is NE one of the worst teams in the league offensively and defensively. Yes, they looked bad against the Dolphins, but they played well on the road vs. both the Jets and the 49ers. They are now sitting at 3-1. Like I said, with Brady out, their lines will be very small in road games, and I think they will be good value plays...like yesterday.
Last edited by a moderator:
JGalligan
Footballguy
What are you guys thinking about the MIN vs NO matchup? It's 80% + average for NO so I'm thinking of taking Minnesota and the points. They're due up and are a home dog if I'm not mistaken.
EDIT: My fault, it's @ New Orleans. Still, I have a feeling that they're due for a big game, and New Orleans is due down for a bad one.
EDIT: My fault, it's @ New Orleans. Still, I have a feeling that they're due for a big game, and New Orleans is due down for a bad one.
Last edited by a moderator:
ceisenhower66
Footballguy
This guy is money. I've been following his picks and getting the emails since week 2. Only problem is that I sometimes throw my own bets in, which wind up costing me money (I suck). This week, I went with him on Miami. My book had Tenn -4.5, so I went with Baltimore based on aiverson's analysis. I did not go with Chicago because the book had them at -4. Big mistake. Instead, I took the over in the Bal/Ten game, which gave me a 2-1 week instead of 3-0, had I stuck with Chicago as he recommended.Anyway, keep up the good work. Sooner or later, I'll learn to just go with you and stop trying to make my own picks (I'm a complete novice). One question, and maybe I should email this to you: Would you consider giving analysis on a line range that you like? What I mean is that the last two weeks I could not get the line you suggested (Chicago -3 this week and Tennessee last week). So I avoided the pick. Turns out both teams covered easily. On the flip side, like I said, I did read between the lines on your analysis and went with Baltimore instead of Tennessee this week.Sorry for the late post
Manster
Footballguy
i like NO at home. Brees is gonna light it up tonite!
Thank you for the compliment ceisenhower. W/ regards to the line question: just out of curiosity, are you using a local or online? Because I don't know what books would have Ten -4.5. The line everywhere I saw opened at 3 and due to all the Baltimore action, broke towards -1 at a fairly steady rate. -1 was at Pinny starting on Thurs or Fri, and -2 were at several shops including 5dimes. By Sunday AM, Baltimore action was so heavy that pretty much everywhere closed at Ten -1. I try to give my insight into getting a line and buying points if necessary. I had Chi -3 and it was at -3 at several outlets when I released the plays, though at some it was at -3.5 and you would have had to buy 1/2 point. So many services were on Det on Sunday AM that the line closed at -3 at a variety of places, including CRIS, skybook, betUS and WSEX.My personal take on the money management thing is that it's your money, and I'm just trying to help you keep it in your pockets and make more where possible. I won't win all the time, and I probably won't keep at 81% the entire season. But when it comes to buying a 1/2 point or line shopping, I really can't make that final call. Everyone is in a different situation. Some guys want to buy down, some guys don't. Typically I don't want to make someone put out more money and then the play to lose. Which is why in the e-mail for Ten, I said: "As I type, Skybook and 5Dimes both have -2 out there. I recommend using your own judgment in terms of what you want to buy down to if you can't play at Pinny. My only advice is to not spend more than you would if you didn't buy at all. In other words, if you are laying $500 and you line is -2, lay $500 @ -1.5 but not more than $500. Reason being, I don't want you to be out of pocket more than you would be if the play loses, and any play can lose."I take it very seriously that people are putting money on games I suggest. It's not a casual thing for me. I run my computer system on Tuesday and study lines, trends, research, injuries, and my other research all week and into the weekend. The worst fear for me is that people lose on my plays. My #1 goal is to steer people clear of touts like Lang, Root (better than lang) and many more terrible ones (I only mention these 2 because they have most name recognition). Some guys are pretty good. For the most part, they are average at best, and top fade material at worst. Yet people shell out $75+ for ONE GAME at times, which loses more often than not. It's not that they charge for the plays, it's #1 they don't win nearly enough and #2, they are charging way too much for the average guy to spend, especially when he absorbs all the losses they routinely take. I want people to make money off my plays, and that's why I put so much effort into it. I've been doing this for a few years now, but this year by far is the most serious, and it was mainly started when some guys approached me and asked me to do it like I am right now: Not a whole batch of computer system plays, but a few plays a week, something manageable, that they could put a bunch of money on, and not spread it over 8+ plays. So that's what I've tried to do and it's doing well for now. I hope it continues. In the future I can try to be as clear as possible with point spreads. Typically the way I do it, is if I don't see a certain spread at the 8 or so places I look, I'm not going to put something out there that most people can't get. But, if all of them have +2.5 and I feel +3 is necessary, I will mention to buy 1/2 point. But again, like I said, your situation was a bit more random, in that everywhere I saw Ten -2.5 or -2, and you said your guy was at -4.5, which is very rogue in my mind. But I'm glad it worked out for you. Thanks again for the kind words.This guy is money. I've been following his picks and getting the emails since week 2. Only problem is that I sometimes throw my own bets in, which wind up costing me money (I suck). This week, I went with him on Miami. My book had Tenn -4.5, so I went with Baltimore based on aiverson's analysis. I did not go with Chicago because the book had them at -4. Big mistake. Instead, I took the over in the Bal/Ten game, which gave me a 2-1 week instead of 3-0, had I stuck with Chicago as he recommended.Anyway, keep up the good work. Sooner or later, I'll learn to just go with you and stop trying to make my own picks (I'm a complete novice). One question, and maybe I should email this to you: Would you consider giving analysis on a line range that you like? What I mean is that the last two weeks I could not get the line you suggested (Chicago -3 this week and Tennessee last week). So I avoided the pick. Turns out both teams covered easily. On the flip side, like I said, I did read between the lines on your analysis and went with Baltimore instead of Tennessee this week.Sorry for the late post
tribecalledjeff
Footballguy
As I said, I've been wrong beforeGhost Rider said:No way is NE one of the worst teams in the league offensively and defensively. Yes, they looked bad against the Dolphins, but they played well on the road vs. both the Jets and the 49ers. They are now sitting at 3-1. Like I said, with Brady out, their lines will be very small in road games, and I think they will be good value plays...like yesterday.
kroyrunner89
Footballguy
What do I need to do to start getting these emailed to me? 17-4 is damn impressive!aiverson said:
I have a website - look at my sig below this message. Just go there and sign up. Thanks for the interest.
ceisenhower66
Footballguy
AI - Thanks for the response, and you are welcome for the kudos. You certainly deserve them. Would you mind if I emailed you my response to your last post so as to not take up too much space in this thread? Should I just use the address you use to send the plays?
That is fine
Not playing side or total tonight. Not enough value from my system, and not enough from the research to make me want to look deeper. If I spent more time, i could come up with something, but I only release plays that I think are good looks and this one is not (at least in my opinion). Looking towards Week 6.
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
aiverson-
I'm impressed. Kudos. One question/minor pet peeve: I've always found it sort of misleading to post a won-loss percentage instead of a balance (you can use betting units, obviously). It's less of a factor in football than it is in baseball where money line plays are the dominant form of wager, but I still think it's a more accurate way to reflect your record. This is especially true if you are making plays with lines at -123 or similar.
Again, this is not a slight. I'm as impressed with your work here as I've been with anyone, and I spend a good deal of time betting on sports and reading about betting on sports. But others often use the "winning percentage" trick to make themselves look better than they are. You don't seem to be one of those guys at all- in fact, I think your performance this year would look even better as "+X units' instead of a winning percentage.
I'm impressed. Kudos. One question/minor pet peeve: I've always found it sort of misleading to post a won-loss percentage instead of a balance (you can use betting units, obviously). It's less of a factor in football than it is in baseball where money line plays are the dominant form of wager, but I still think it's a more accurate way to reflect your record. This is especially true if you are making plays with lines at -123 or similar.
Again, this is not a slight. I'm as impressed with your work here as I've been with anyone, and I spend a good deal of time betting on sports and reading about betting on sports. But others often use the "winning percentage" trick to make themselves look better than they are. You don't seem to be one of those guys at all- in fact, I think your performance this year would look even better as "+X units' instead of a winning percentage.
Liquid Tension
Footballguy
I enjoy reading perspectives that differ than mine and are well thought out (great job). I had posted my 1st 2 weeks and I was 7-2, but have not posted since but have had a great year so far. This past week, i disagreed with all the folks here about Detroit and bet Chicago (like the 2nd week where I told everyone Washington was much better than they showed against the Giants. I also bet NE, Denver and Washington for wins. I also bet Baltimore +3 for a push and then lost on GB which was more of a line play. The line was GB-5.5 and then we it was said that Rodgers was playing I was still able to get GB at -3 so I decided to be that (and I should have also taken Atlanta +5.5 and played the middle, but I decided against it, bad move). Still a real good week at 4-1-1.Thank you for the compliment ceisenhower. W/ regards to the line question: just out of curiosity, are you using a local or online? Because I don't know what books would have Ten -4.5. The line everywhere I saw opened at 3 and due to all the Baltimore action, broke towards -1 at a fairly steady rate. -1 was at Pinny starting on Thurs or Fri, and -2 were at several shops including 5dimes. By Sunday AM, Baltimore action was so heavy that pretty much everywhere closed at Ten -1. I try to give my insight into getting a line and buying points if necessary. I had Chi -3 and it was at -3 at several outlets when I released the plays, though at some it was at -3.5 and you would have had to buy 1/2 point. So many services were on Det on Sunday AM that the line closed at -3 at a variety of places, including CRIS, skybook, betUS and WSEX.My personal take on the money management thing is that it's your money, and I'm just trying to help you keep it in your pockets and make more where possible. I won't win all the time, and I probably won't keep at 81% the entire season. But when it comes to buying a 1/2 point or line shopping, I really can't make that final call. Everyone is in a different situation. Some guys want to buy down, some guys don't. Typically I don't want to make someone put out more money and then the play to lose. Which is why in the e-mail for Ten, I said: "As I type, Skybook and 5Dimes both have -2 out there. I recommend using your own judgment in terms of what you want to buy down to if you can't play at Pinny. My only advice is to not spend more than you would if you didn't buy at all. In other words, if you are laying $500 and you line is -2, lay $500 @ -1.5 but not more than $500. Reason being, I don't want you to be out of pocket more than you would be if the play loses, and any play can lose."I take it very seriously that people are putting money on games I suggest. It's not a casual thing for me. I run my computer system on Tuesday and study lines, trends, research, injuries, and my other research all week and into the weekend. The worst fear for me is that people lose on my plays. My #1 goal is to steer people clear of touts like Lang, Root (better than lang) and many more terrible ones (I only mention these 2 because they have most name recognition). Some guys are pretty good. For the most part, they are average at best, and top fade material at worst. Yet people shell out $75+ for ONE GAME at times, which loses more often than not. It's not that they charge for the plays, it's #1 they don't win nearly enough and #2, they are charging way too much for the average guy to spend, especially when he absorbs all the losses they routinely take. I want people to make money off my plays, and that's why I put so much effort into it. I've been doing this for a few years now, but this year by far is the most serious, and it was mainly started when some guys approached me and asked me to do it like I am right now: Not a whole batch of computer system plays, but a few plays a week, something manageable, that they could put a bunch of money on, and not spread it over 8+ plays. So that's what I've tried to do and it's doing well for now. I hope it continues. In the future I can try to be as clear as possible with point spreads. Typically the way I do it, is if I don't see a certain spread at the 8 or so places I look, I'm not going to put something out there that most people can't get. But, if all of them have +2.5 and I feel +3 is necessary, I will mention to buy 1/2 point. But again, like I said, your situation was a bit more random, in that everywhere I saw Ten -2.5 or -2, and you said your guy was at -4.5, which is very rogue in my mind. But I'm glad it worked out for you. Thanks again for the kind words.This guy is money. I've been following his picks and getting the emails since week 2. Only problem is that I sometimes throw my own bets in, which wind up costing me money (I suck). This week, I went with him on Miami. My book had Tenn -4.5, so I went with Baltimore based on aiverson's analysis. I did not go with Chicago because the book had them at -4. Big mistake. Instead, I took the over in the Bal/Ten game, which gave me a 2-1 week instead of 3-0, had I stuck with Chicago as he recommended.Anyway, keep up the good work. Sooner or later, I'll learn to just go with you and stop trying to make my own picks (I'm a complete novice). One question, and maybe I should email this to you: Would you consider giving analysis on a line range that you like? What I mean is that the last two weeks I could not get the line you suggested (Chicago -3 this week and Tennessee last week). So I avoided the pick. Turns out both teams covered easily. On the flip side, like I said, I did read between the lines on your analysis and went with Baltimore instead of Tennessee this week.Sorry for the late post
Liquid Tension
Footballguy
Stick to only the real good ones; don't try and force it even if it is only 2 plays a week!
Similar threads
