*** Official Week 7 NFL Wagering Thread *** (1 Viewer)

[TheWick]

Date & Time Favorite Line Underdog Total

10/19 1:00 ET Tennessee -7.5 At Kansas City 35

10/19 1:00 ET At Buffalo PK San Diego 46.5

10/19 1:00 ET Pittsburgh -9.5 At Cincinnati 37

10/19 1:00 ET At Miami -3 Baltimore 36.5

10/19 1:00 ET Dallas -7 At St. Louis 44.5

10/19 1:00 ET At Chicago -3 Minnesota 38

10/19 1:00 ET At Carolina -3 New Orleans 44.5

10/19 1:00 ET At NY Giants -12 San Francisco 46*

10/19 4:05 ET At Houston -8.5 Detroit 48

10/19 4:15 ET NY Jets -3 At Oakland 43

10/19 4:15 ET At Washington -10 Cleveland 41.5*

10/19 4:15 ET Indianapolis -1 At Green Bay 47

10/19 8:15 ET At Tampa Bay -11 Seattle 39

Monday Night Football Line

10/20 8:35 ET At New England -3 Denver 46.5

 

[JGalligan]

My Week Seven lines (excluding the Giants and Browns games which I will update tomorrow) -- I've starred the games which appear to offer some betting value. As always, the line given is the home teams line:

SD @ BUF**

Actual line: EV

My line: -2.5

NO @ CAR

Actual line: -3

My line: -2.5

MIN @ CHI**

Actual line: -3

My line: -6.5

PIT @ CIN**

Actual line: +9.5

My line: +6

TEN @ KC**

Actual line: +7.5

My line: +11

BAL @ MIA

Actual line: -3

My line: -2.5

SF @ NYG - TBD

DAL @ STL

Actual line: +7

My line: +6

DET @ HOU

Actual line: -8.5

My line: -9.5

IND @ GB

Actual line: EV

My line: EV

NYJ @ OAK

Actual line: +3

My line: +3

CLE @ WAS - TBD

SEA @ TB**

Actual line: -11

My line: -16

DEN @ NE

Actual line: -3

My line: EV

Week Five: 3-1-1

Week Six: 3-3

The season (Yes, I started the system in Week Five -- unfortunately): 6-4-1 (54.5%)

 

[tribecalledjeff]

Early week 7 plays:

Den/NE o46'

NYJ/Oak u43'

GB +1'

NO +3

SD pk

Bal/Mia o34

Ind/GB u49

Den +4

Min/Chi u40

I've been only listing a few of my plays here per week so far. I believe I'm 11-11 on posted plays, but I'm actually 20-15 overall, so I'm just going to post them all now

Lines are getting tighter, most of these are slim margins imo, and about half have already moved to reflect that.

 

[JGalligan]

Early week 7 playsen/NE o46'NYJ/Oak u43'GB +1'NO +3SD pkBal/Mia o34Ind/GB u49Den +4 Min/Chi u40I've been only listing a few of my plays here per week so far. I believe I'm 11-11 on posted plays, but I'm actually 20-15 overall, so I'm just going to post them all now Lines are getting tighter, most of these are slim margins imo, and about half have already moved to reflect that.

I agree. Line shopping is going to be more important now, from this point forward, more than ever.

 

[SuperJohn96]

Spreads from proline.ca (Ontario)

Anyone see anything I should take advantage of here?

G#	 G TIME	 -V-	 -H-	(V)	 (H)01	 1:00PM	 TEN	 KCC   -8.5	 02	 1:00PM	 SDC	 BUF		   -1.503	 1:00PM	 PIT	 CIN   -10.5	 04	 1:00PM	 BAL	 MIA		   -2.505	 1:00PM	 DAL	 STL   -7.0	 06	 1:00PM	 MIN	 CHI		   -3.007	 1:00PM	 NOS	 CAR		   -2.508	 1:00PM	 SFO	 NYG		   -11.509	 4:05PM	 DET	 HOU		   -8.510	 4:15PM	 NYJ	 OAK   -3.5	 11	 4:15PM	 CLE	 WAS		   -7.012	 4:15PM	 IND	 GBP   -2.5	 13	 8:15PM	 SEA	 TBB		   -12.514	 8:30PM	 DEN	 NEP		   -3.0

 

[JGalligan]

Updated lines! (I factored in some game simulations)

WEEK SEVEN GAMES*

* Actual lines subject to change (Not mine, your bookies)

San Diego @ Buffalo

My line: EV

Actual line: EV

New Orleans @ Carolina

My line: -2 / -2.5

Actual line: -3

Minnesota @ Chicago **

My line: -5.5

Actual line: -3

Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati

My line: +9

Actual line: +9.5

Tennessee @ Kansas City

My line: +9.5

Actual line: +8

San Francisco @ New York (Giants)

My line: -10.5 / -11

Actual line: -10.5

Baltimore @ Miami

My line: -2.5 / -3.0

Actual line: -3

Dallas @ St. Louis

My line: +10 / +10.5 * (Didn’t fully take Brad Johnson as the starting QB OR the Roy Williams trade into account)

Actual line: +7

Detroit @ Houston

My line: -8.5 / -9

Actual line: -9

Indianapolis @ Green Bay **

My line: EV

Actual line: +2

New York (Jets) @ Oakland

My line: +3.5 / +4

Actual line: +3

Cleveland @ Washington

My line: -6.5 / -7

Actual line: -7

Seattle @ Tampa Bay

My line: -12 / -12.5 * (Did not fully take into account Seneca Wallace or <gasp> Chaz Frye as the starting QB)

Actual line: -10.5

Denver @ New England *

My line: EV

Actual line: -3

WEEK SEVEN PLAYS:

Chicago (-3): 3 units

Green Bay (+2): 3 units

Denver (+3): 5 units

 

[kroyrunner89]

After a week off to try to get back on track I'll work to improve my 11-11 posted plays record. Here are my picks this week:

Indy -1.5

Cinci +9.5

Oak +3

Buffalo (PK)

Titans -9

on a side note, anyone ever used the site linesmaker.com or know anything about its reputation?

 

[kroyrunner89]

and i pick red sox +280 to win the ALCS... not nfl but still gambling none the less lol

 

[Weiner Dog]

Even money on the Pats scoring less than 24.5 pts.

 

[Headbutts]

So I'm headed to Vegas Sunday, in time for the SNF and MNF. Any leans on those two games? I'm staying at the Mirage, any experience there or recommendations for other sports books?

 

[Weiner Dog]

Over 34.5 on CIN / PIT.

 

[Raider Nation]

FYI: Double-digit pups are 8-0 ATS so far this year.

 

[modogg]

I think the best bets for the week look like the Broncos and the Bills.

And Raider Nation is definately right about those home dogs, I'm not suggesting the Chiefs and Bengals are good teams, but they seem like very good picks this week. I've been quite lucky this year hitting over 70% of my picks, and I am sure picks like the Cheifs and Bengals will help me get right back to paying my bookie a lot of money. Here is the beginning of the end

 

[JKL]

Last week: 3-1

Overall: 22-9-3

================================

Here are this week's picks:

CHICAGO -3. The Bears are the better team here, and this is a traditionally home dominated series. Vikings have won two in a row, but were outyardaged big time in the Saints game, and struggled to beat Detroit at home.

MIAMI -3. I was probably the only one picking against Baltimore last week. Flacco is just not ready to be starting in the NFL yet. They were able to hide him at home and win against weaker teams with their dominating defense. This is the kind of team that exhibits a strong home/road split, and that's why I picked against them last week, and will again this week. They are going to need Flacco to make some plays on the road to cover.

Denver +3. I think the wrong team is favored here, you do have a good QB going on the road against a team struggling in pass defense. Also, while much has been made of teams travelling West to East, since 1993. In games where a West team travels East and plays at night, though, the Western road team is 14-14 SU and 15-12-1 ATS, so it doesn't seem to be a disadvantage for night games.

Dallas -7. The Rams are a general play on for the rest of the yr, and were last week, but I will play against them here. They beat Washington without scoring an offensive touchdown, so it is not like they completely turned things around. Dallas has been underwhelming recently, but the Romo injury has lowered this line to a solid value, and I think they come out with a solid game against a team with problems on both sides of the ball.

Seattle +11. See night note above. This pick is made with the belief that Seneca Wallace, and not Charlie Frye, will be starting at QB. Frye is terrible, and this line is pretty big. If Wallace is just okay, should be a cover on Sunday night.

 

[crnerblitz]

Last week: 1-1

Overall 10-6-1

I really like this weeks card and so am offering 4 games this week.

Buff pk San Diego's defense just isn't playing well without Merriman. It'll be close but take Buff.

Mia -3 Miami has some sound leadership and the players have bought in. Flaccos troubles will continue.

Oak+3 I think this is a winnable game for Oakland. This dog has teeth

NYG -12 Ok so dd dogs have barked this year. J.T. is just awfull and teams now have film on him and have figured out how to force him into mistakes.

Good luck and remember to keep your powder dry.

 

[prosopis]

TB -11 for $500.00



LOCK :IBTL:

 

[tribecalledjeff]

TB -11 for $500.00 LOCK :IBTL:

Took Seattle +12 and u40. Also have a small parlay on Rays and u9. Gonna be a fun night watching games GL

 

[prosopis]

TB -11 for $500.00 LOCK :IBTL:

Nice backdoor loss.

 

[Angry Beavers]

Anybody else liking NE -3?

 

[tribecalledjeff]

Took Seattle +12 and u40. Also have a small parlay on Rays and u9. Gonna be a fun night watching games GL

Was on Denver +4 tonight but bought back NE -3 +100. 6-3 this week with 046' tonight still pending.

 

[Weiner Dog]

I posted the following Pittman line in the Free For All...

At Bodog, Pittman at Over 68.5 yards rushing (-115) is free money.

 

[JGalligan]

Anybody else liking NE -3?

No.

 

[JGalligan]

Anybody else liking NE -3?

No.

Yes, I'm aware that this response now looks me look like an arzehole. Although, contrary to popular belief -- I am NOT psychic. How was I supposed to know Jay Cutler's pinky finger would shrink from the spotlight and break itself tonight?

 

[crnerblitz]

Last week: 1-1

Overall 10-6-1

I really like this weeks card and so am offering 4 games this week.

Buff pk San Diego's defense just isn't playing well without Merriman. It'll be close but take Buff.

Mia -3 Miami has some sound leadership and the players have bought in. Flaccos troubles will continue.

Oak+3 I think this is a winnable game for Oakland. This dog has teeth

NYG -12 Ok so dd dogs have barked this year. J.T. is just awfull and teams now have film on him and have figured out how to force him into mistakes.

Good luck and remember to keep your powder dry.

New York was commonly -11 when it went off on Sunday. I actually got -10' as did many others without buying down. On Saturday you could get New York for 11 no problem. I didn't like the fact that -12 was the posted number at the top of the thread. Without an updated line I went with the posted number. I will however be taking credit for a win and not a push in my totals as -12 did not in any way reflect the line by Saturday. Even more so considering I posted Sunday morning.

 

[JGalligan]

Last week: 1-1

Overall 10-6-1

I really like this weeks card and so am offering 4 games this week.

Buff pk San Diego's defense just isn't playing well without Merriman. It'll be close but take Buff.

Mia -3 Miami has some sound leadership and the players have bought in. Flaccos troubles will continue.

Oak+3 I think this is a winnable game for Oakland. This dog has teeth

NYG -12 Ok so dd dogs have barked this year. J.T. is just awfull and teams now have film on him and have figured out how to force him into mistakes.

Good luck and remember to keep your powder dry.

New York was commonly -11 when it went off on Sunday. I actually got -10' as did many others without buying down. On Saturday you could get New York for 11 no problem. I didn't like the fact that -12 was the posted number at the top of the thread. Without an updated line I went with the posted number. I will however be taking credit for a win and not a push in my totals as -12 did not in any way reflect the line by Saturday. Even more so considering I posted Sunday morning.

Boooooooooooooooo!

 

[Raider Nation]

Anybody else liking NE -3?

No.

Yes, I'm aware that this response now looks me look like an arzehole. Although, contrary to popular belief -- I am NOT psychic. How was I supposed to know Jay Cutler's pinky finger would shrink from the spotlight and break itself tonight?

Had Cutler's pinky been healthy, do you think New England would have rushed for fewer than 600 yards?