Week 9 is an interesting week, with my system not finding nearly as much value in the lines as it normally does. However, with all of the plays that my system has generated this week, I've got a high enough confidence in each to make them official plays. I spent the week looking for additional plays I'd like to add, but I don't see a ton of value out there this week aside from what my system has already identified. So, we're going to have yet another week of just 4 plays, let's hope it goes just as well if not better than last week. Here's what I've got:
* Miami +10.5
I'm still not a believer that Brady is back, as the Titans absolutely lay down against the Patriots in Week 6 and Tampa Bay has one of the worst secondaries in the NFL. Aside from these two games, we've still seen nothing out of Brady to indicate that he's back to old form. Although Miami's pass defense is 6th worst in the league in pass yards per attempt allowed, they managed to hold the Saints down in the first half of that game by dialing up the pressure. I expect them to do similarly to Brady, and I don't think he'll be able to adjust to it as well as the Saints did late in the game.
Meanwhile, New England is 9th worst in the league at rushing yards per attempt allowed. Considering that they're going up against the wildcat this weekend, that's not good news for them. I think the Dolphins are able to exploit the Patriots' rush defense, while holding Brady in check for most of the game. Dolphins should keep this one within a touchdown, with an outside shot at stealing it outright.
* Saints/Panthers OVER 51.5
Every time I pick a Saints over it's starting to feel like a square pick, however there's no way to ignore it when the line is set this low. The Saints showed how much they missed Ellis last Monday as Turner had no trouble getting loose, and really ran well for the first time all season. Going against a run first team like Carolina, I think this weakness can be exploited and the Saints are going to have trouble slowing down the Panthers' ground game. Carolina should be able to put up their fair share of points.
We all know what to expect on the Saints' side of the ball. Brees is leading the most potent offense in the NFL, and will certainly make the most of any Saints drives. Brees will rack up the yardage, and so far the Panthers' defense is worst in the league at scoring efficiency. Saints shouldn't be held under 35, while I'd be surprised to see the Panthers fall short of 17. Should be another high scoring game in New Orleans.
* Packers/Bucs OVER 43.5
Here we have the 8th best passing offense in the league going against the worst passing defense in the league. The Packers should have no trouble moving the ball through the air, especially considering that Tampa Bay's defense has the third fewest sacks in the NFL. Sacks have been the main thing slowing the Green Bay offense so far this year, and I don't expect to see many of them on Sunday.
Tampa Bay's offense has been absolutely terrible so far this year, scoring just under 14 points a game. With yet another new quarterback finding the starting lineup, one has to wonder if my system wouldn't be prepared to assess such a change. However, the way I see it, when an offense is doing so badly, how could a change like this make it any worse? If my system likes the over with the dismal numbers we've seen out of Tampa so far, we can only hope that this change makes things better. Even if he turns the ball over 5 times, that'll just mean more short fields for the Packers and more chances to put points on the board. However, I expect Tampa shows a little life on offense and we see a 30-17 type of game.
* Giants/Chargers OVER 47.5
The Giants' secondary has been getting absolutely shredded lately, and they happen to be going against the 4th best passing offense in the league this week. The Chargers have also been the 6th best team in the league at turning their yardage into points, a category that the Giants' defense ranks second to last in. The Chargers have the pieces in place to put on an offensive show on their end of the ball.
The San Diego defense has been equally as bad at limiting opponents yardage from turning into points. They're currently 8th worst in the league at this, a bad sign for them because the Giants' offense is 7th best at pass yards per attempt and 11th at rush yards per attempt. I expect a bounce back effort from the New York offense this week, as they'll have to put up points on the scoreboard to stay in the game. Against this weak Chargers' defense, I don't expect that to be a problem and this game should be an easy over.
ATS System Plays (2-3):
* Miami +10.5
This is the first week I've ever seen my system only have one ATS play. This is not the norm and I don't expect to see it again any time soon.
Totals System Plays (1-0):
* Saints/Panthers OVER 51.5
* Packers/Bucs OVER 43.5
* Giants/Chargers OVER 47.5
As always, good luck to everyone this week!
