*** Official Week 9 Wagering Thread *** (1 Viewer)

[kroyrunner89]

11/2 1:00 Minnesota -5 vs. Houston 46.5

11/2 1:00 Jacksonville -7.5 @ Cincinnati 39.5

11/2 1:00 Tampa Bay -9 @ Kansas City 36.5

11/2 1:00 Cleveland -2 vs. Baltimore 36

11/2 1:00 Buffalo -5 vs. NYJ 42

11/2 1:00 Arizona -3 @ St. Louis 48.5

11/2 1:00 Chicago -12.5 vs. Detroit 43

11/2 1:00 Tennessee -4.5 vs. Green Bay 40.5

11/2 4:05 Denver -3.5 vs. Miami 50.5

11/2 4:15 Atlanta -3 @ Oakland 41.5

11/2 4:15 NY Giants -8.5 vs. Dallas 41

11/2 4:15 Philadelphia -6.5 @ Seattle 42.5

11/2 8:15 Indianapolis -6 vs. New England 43.5

Monday Night Football Line:

11/3 8:35 Washington -2 vs. Pittsburgh 36.5

 

[kroyrunner89]

I noticed this thread was missing this week so I started it myself. Lets hear some picks! This week I'm on:

Tennessee -4.5

Miami +3.5

Arizona -3

Tampa Bay -9

Detroit +12.5

 

[modogg]

Thanks for throwing this up. I like your Detroit pick, but the other one;s i would be nervous about. I like the Colts and The Eagles this week. I am a bit of a Philly homer, but Seattle is just a god-awful team (beating up SF last week isn't too impressive), and Philly has their key players healthy, so covering 6.5 should be easy. Seattle is good at home, but i just can't buy into Seneca Wallace, and Jim Johnson should blitz the crap out of them.

 

[AllVolUT]

KC +9 @ home: And its not because I'm not reading into Thigpen's stats from last week. This game reminds me of when Denver came into Arrowhead and opened as a double-digit favorite - and lost. Any 9-pt home dog in the NFL tough to pass up. Factor in the Tampa Bay RB factor, and I think KC covers. TB: 20 KC: 13

 

[Wooderson]

Texans +4

Eagles -6

 

[teamroc]

I'm waiting for the "stone cold locks" so I can bet the other side.

 

[JGalligan]

I just started up my own picks site -- link is in the signature below. For the average Joe that goes there right now, I'm offering one free pick as a trial of sorts to kick things off. But since I love you all (no homo) just PM me your e-mail address and I'll send you the subscribers e-mail with my four picks for this week. And yes, that goes for all of you I'm afraid. All 5 gazillion of you.

Last three weeks:

Week Six: 3-1

Week Seven: 2-1

Week Eight: 3-1

Season: 14-7-1 (63.6%)

I need an over/under specialist as well, too, so if you handicap that side of the games and are fairly knowledgeable on the subject -- PM me about that too and we can work something out.

 

[JGalligan]

Here's a complimentary play since I am such a nice person..

Note: The lines listed are that of the home teams.

New York (Jets) @ Buffalo

Actual line: -5

My systems line: -3 / -3.5

I would have normally sent this out earlier this week instructing all subscribers to take the Jets getting 5.5 points, which was what the line was earlier in the week. Still though, given what I capped the game at – the Jets are still the play at +5. Feel free to buy the half-point though, you just NEVER know!

Divisional rivalries are always hard-fought, rough ball games and these two will be no different. Even when their games didn't mean much the two teams would give it all they had, so it's safe to assume that this is going to be an enormously important game for both squads – both standings wise as well as mentally. The Jets are also playing for a potential shot to share first place along with the Patriots should they lose on Sunday night to the Colts.

Trent Edwards has played spectacular thus far and he will have to stay at that level to give the Bills a shot on Sunday. The Jets have one of the best rushing defenses in the NFL, in large part to their off-season acquisition of perrennial run-stopper (and Jon Gruden annoyer) Kris Jenkins. Marshawn Lynch will have a respectable day against them, if only because of the amount of carries he will get. In the end, the Bills will live and die on Trent Edwards impressive but inexperienced arm.

To sum it all up, five points is just too enticing to pass up, especially since my system said the Jets should only be getting about a field goal or so. This game will be hard-fought and close the entire day -- and if you do go ahead and decide to buy that half point – will almost certainly fail to be a nail-biter. A nail-biter in terms of our play, rather.

The play: New York Jets (+5)

Good luck this week fellas!

 

[JKL]

I'll give you all my picks for free.

Last week: 2-2

Overall: 26-14-3

============================================

Lots of games I like this week, starting with some that go with the divisional road teams playing in same time zone, same climate games:

NY Jets +5.5 at Buffalo

Baltimore +2 at Cleveland

Also like a couple of big points with some winless teams:

CINCY +8 vs Jacksonville

Detroit +13 at CHICAGO

I'll play against the young Atlanta team traveling cross country in a non-conference game and being a favorite:

OAKLAND +3 vs Atlanta

And to round it out:

INDIANAPOLIS -6.5 vs New England

Green Bay +4.5 at TENNESSEE

Thanks for posting KroyRunner. I guess TheWick finally ran out of money playing four team teasers and parlays.

 

[crnerblitz]

Last week 1-3

Season total 14-10-1

Not a very good week as I took a beating.

Only two plays this week. Sory for no explanation.

Buffalo -5

Baltimore +2

Good luck

 

[The Jacket]

3* - ARZ/STL U48.5

 

[TheWick]

Sorry about forgetting this week...real busy. You can take it over kroyrunner, I'll just spectate

 

[footballisbetter.com]

Falcons (-3) @ Raiders- Atlanta really impressed me in their loss last week in Philly. Matt Ryan is going to be a superstar and he has a stud receiver in Roddy White. I think that they will be able to control this game and look for M. Turner to have a big game. Falcons will this game easily and cover.

I am actually 40-26-2 so far this season vs the spread. All my picks are listed for free at the site in my sig. Once you are at the site just go to Admins Predictions.

 

[JGalligan]

Falcons (-3) @ Raiders- Atlanta really impressed me in their loss last week in Philly. Matt Ryan is going to be a superstar and he has a stud receiver in Roddy White. I think that they will be able to control this game and look for M. Turner to have a big game. Falcons will this game easily and cover.I am actually 40-26-2 so far this season vs the spread. All my picks are listed for free at the site in my sig. Once you are at the site just go to Admins Predictions.

Yeah, the ATL @ OAK game is just shouting an easy Atlanta play.That's all I'm saying.

 

[massraider]

My weekly stupid parlay:

Ravens +1.5

Dolphins +3.5

Giants -8.5

Packers +5.5

Falcons -2.5

Eagles -6.5

Colts/Pats Under 44.5

$20 to win $1,600

 

[massraider]

My weekly stupid parlay:Ravens +1.5Dolphins +3.5Giants -8.5Packers +5.5Falcons -2.5Eagles -6.5Colts/Pats Under 44.5$20 to win $1,600

Put 300 on the over (44) to hedge my bet.

 

[tribecalledjeff]

I just started up my own picks site -- link is in the signature below. For the average Joe that goes there right now, I'm offering one free pick as a trial of sorts to kick things off. But since I love you all (no homo) just PM me your e-mail address and I'll send you the subscribers e-mail with my four picks for this week. And yes, that goes for all of you I'm afraid. All 5 gazillion of you.

Last three weeks:

Week Six: 3-1

Week Seven: 2-1

Week Eight: 3-1

Season: 14-7-1 (63.6%)

I need an over/under specialist as well, too, so if you handicap that side of the games and are fairly knowledgeable on the subject -- PM me about that too and we can work something out.

:( Are you serious? Based on a sample size of 3 weeks over which you are 8-3 (prior to that you were basically a coin flipper), you expect people to pay for your plays? This is laughable.

Good luck, though. There probably are people dumb enough to pay for your picks.

 

[tribecalledjeff]

My weekly stupid parlay:Ravens +1.5Dolphins +3.5Giants -8.5Packers +5.5Falcons -2.5Eagles -6.5Colts/Pats Under 44.5$20 to win $1,600

Put 300 on the over (44) to hedge my bet.

:( Nice job, and good luck.

 

[prosopis]

My weekly stupid parlay:Ravens +1.5Dolphins +3.5Giants -8.5Packers +5.5Falcons -2.5Eagles -6.5Colts/Pats Under 44.5$20 to win $1,600

Put 300 on the over (44) to hedge my bet.

That is awesome.

 

[Burning Sensation]

My weekly stupid parlay:Ravens +1.5Dolphins +3.5Giants -8.5Packers +5.5Falcons -2.5Eagles -6.5Colts/Pats Under 44.5$20 to win $1,600

Put 300 on the over (44) to hedge my bet.

Wow, nice job!!I would have put more on the over though, especially since 44 points would push the over.

 

[JGalligan]

I just started up my own picks site -- link is in the signature below. For the average Joe that goes there right now, I'm offering one free pick as a trial of sorts to kick things off. But since I love you all (no homo) just PM me your e-mail address and I'll send you the subscribers e-mail with my four picks for this week. And yes, that goes for all of you I'm afraid. All 5 gazillion of you.

Last three weeks:

Week Six: 3-1

Week Seven: 2-1

Week Eight: 3-1

Season: 14-7-1 (63.6%)

I need an over/under specialist as well, too, so if you handicap that side of the games and are fairly knowledgeable on the subject -- PM me about that too and we can work something out.

Are you serious? Based on a sample size of 3 weeks over which you are 8-3 (prior to that you were basically a coin flipper), you expect people to pay for your plays? This is laughable.

Good luck, though. There probably are people dumb enough to pay for your picks.

It was 14-7-1 (16-8-1 now) for the season? I've tweaked my current system for most of the second half of last year -- I tested it with past lines/games, and don't really bet too many games from week to week. That's because, according to my system, they don't have any value.I spend a shizload of time early on in the week to create the lines/spreads with the system. Nevermind the constant monitoring of each games spread to see if it's dropped into value territory.

I also don't promise anything on the site besides what's already been recorded -- I can see where your coming from since its a small sample size, but from what I've tested in the past and from what the percentage of success is this year, I think it's going pretty good. And I expect it to continue to go well. I'm not going to be naive and think that its going to stay around 65% forever, but I don't see it ever really dipping below 53%. I really don't.

As for people being wary? It's to be expected I suppose. To help remedy that I gave approximately forty people a free play from this weeks system of plays. About 20 of them got the NYJ +5, ten got the CIN +8 game, and the remaining ten (unfortunately) got OAK +3. So the thirty people who's free play cashed out should be pretty happy right now. The Oakland ones? Eh, I wouldn't be surprised if they were trying to find out where I lived in order to come and kill me. But hey, I don't think anyone predicted that JaMarcus Russell was going to go 6/19 for 31 yards and one interception.

If you'd like, I'll send you my picks for next week. Feel free to fade them and see what happens.

 

[Weiner Dog]

My weekly stupid parlay:Ravens +1.5Dolphins +3.5Giants -8.5Packers +5.5Falcons -2.5Eagles -6.5Colts/Pats Under 44.5$20 to win $1,600

Colts leading Pats 7-6 at the half. Good luck, man!

 

[tribecalledjeff]

I just started up my own picks site -- link is in the signature below. For the average Joe that goes there right now, I'm offering one free pick as a trial of sorts to kick things off. But since I love you all (no homo) just PM me your e-mail address and I'll send you the subscribers e-mail with my four picks for this week. And yes, that goes for all of you I'm afraid. All 5 gazillion of you.

Last three weeks:

Week Six: 3-1

Week Seven: 2-1

Week Eight: 3-1

Season: 14-7-1 (63.6%)

I need an over/under specialist as well, too, so if you handicap that side of the games and are fairly knowledgeable on the subject -- PM me about that too and we can work something out.

Are you serious? Based on a sample size of 3 weeks over which you are 8-3 (prior to that you were basically a coin flipper), you expect people to pay for your plays? This is laughable.

Good luck, though. There probably are people dumb enough to pay for your picks.

It was 14-7-1 (16-8-1 now) for the season? I've tweaked my current system for most of the second half of last year -- I tested it with past lines/games, and don't really bet too many games from week to week. That's because, according to my system, they don't have any value.I spend a shizload of time early on in the week to create the lines/spreads with the system. Nevermind the constant monitoring of each games spread to see if it's dropped into value territory.

I also don't promise anything on the site besides what's already been recorded -- I can see where your coming from since its a small sample size, but from what I've tested in the past and from what the percentage of success is this year, I think it's going pretty good. And I expect it to continue to go well. I'm not going to be naive and think that its going to stay around 65% forever, but I don't see it ever really dipping below 53%. I really don't.

As for people being wary? It's to be expected I suppose. To help remedy that I gave approximately forty people a free play from this weeks system of plays. About 20 of them got the NYJ +5, ten got the CIN +8 game, and the remaining ten (unfortunately) got OAK +3. So the thirty people who's free play cashed out should be pretty happy right now. The Oakland ones? Eh, I wouldn't be surprised if they were trying to find out where I lived in order to come and kill me. But hey, I don't think anyone predicted that JaMarcus Russell was going to go 6/19 for 31 yards and one interception.

If you'd like, I'll send you my picks for next week. Feel free to fade them and see what happens.

Sent you a pm. Biggest thing I'd want people here to realize is not to blame losses on luck and attribute your wins to your skill. There are certainly right side losers (Oakland wasn't one) and wrong side winners, but those things tend to even out. Own your bets, honestly assess whether it was the right side or not, learn from it, and move on.

 

[JGalligan]

I just started up my own picks site -- link is in the signature below. For the average Joe that goes there right now, I'm offering one free pick as a trial of sorts to kick things off. But since I love you all (no homo) just PM me your e-mail address and I'll send you the subscribers e-mail with my four picks for this week. And yes, that goes for all of you I'm afraid. All 5 gazillion of you.

Last three weeks:

Week Six: 3-1

Week Seven: 2-1

Week Eight: 3-1

Season: 14-7-1 (63.6%)

I need an over/under specialist as well, too, so if you handicap that side of the games and are fairly knowledgeable on the subject -- PM me about that too and we can work something out.

Are you serious? Based on a sample size of 3 weeks over which you are 8-3 (prior to that you were basically a coin flipper), you expect people to pay for your plays? This is laughable.

Good luck, though. There probably are people dumb enough to pay for your picks.

It was 14-7-1 (16-8-1 now) for the season? I've tweaked my current system for most of the second half of last year -- I tested it with past lines/games, and don't really bet too many games from week to week. That's because, according to my system, they don't have any value.I spend a shizload of time early on in the week to create the lines/spreads with the system. Nevermind the constant monitoring of each games spread to see if it's dropped into value territory.

I also don't promise anything on the site besides what's already been recorded -- I can see where your coming from since its a small sample size, but from what I've tested in the past and from what the percentage of success is this year, I think it's going pretty good. And I expect it to continue to go well. I'm not going to be naive and think that its going to stay around 65% forever, but I don't see it ever really dipping below 53%. I really don't.

As for people being wary? It's to be expected I suppose. To help remedy that I gave approximately forty people a free play from this weeks system of plays. About 20 of them got the NYJ +5, ten got the CIN +8 game, and the remaining ten (unfortunately) got OAK +3. So the thirty people who's free play cashed out should be pretty happy right now. The Oakland ones? Eh, I wouldn't be surprised if they were trying to find out where I lived in order to come and kill me. But hey, I don't think anyone predicted that JaMarcus Russell was going to go 6/19 for 31 yards and one interception.

If you'd like, I'll send you my picks for next week. Feel free to fade them and see what happens.

Sent you a pm. Biggest thing I'd want people here to realize is not to blame losses on luck and attribute your wins to your skill. There are certainly right side losers (Oakland wasn't one) and wrong side winners, but those things tend to even out. Own your bets, honestly assess whether it was the right side or not, learn from it, and move on.

Ditto on the PM.Noted on the losses -- thank you. It makes sense -- there's really no sense in trying to explain something that was impossible to predict. Or trying to predict losses at all for that matter.

 

[ceisenhower66]

If you'd like, I'll send you my picks for next week. Feel free to fade them and see what happens.

I'm a believer and I bet with you on the Jets. I was tempted to go on Cincy on my own, but didn't see that pick from any trusted sources. Can I get the picks next week too - I promise I won't fade, LOL. :(

 

[JGalligan]

If you'd like, I'll send you my picks for next week. Feel free to fade them and see what happens.

I'm a believer and I bet with you on the Jets. I was tempted to go on Cincy on my own, but didn't see that pick from any trusted sources. Can I get the picks next week too - I promise I won't fade, LOL.

PM.