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Travdogg's positional rankings from week 12 onward (1 Viewer)

travdogg

Footballguy
QB
Tier 1:
1. Jalen Hurts (2)
2. Lamar Jackson (1)
3. Josh Allen (3)
4. Jayden Daniels (6)
5. Joe Burrow (5)

Tier 2:
6. Justin Herbert (14), been playing at an MVP level since healing from injury, and the Chargers are passing more. 19+ fantasy points in 4 straight, and a very nice schedule going forward.
7. Kyler Murray (10), extremely up and down, hopefully the bye was spent just playing catch with Harrison. If there is a guy who jumps to tier 1, its likely him.
8. Patrick Mahomes (7)
9. Baker Mayfield (4), still feel good about him, just had his projection a bit too high. Remaining schedule is great except other than the LAC and maybe NO, its easy wins with 2 vs Car, 1 vs Dal, LV, and the NYG. Volume might be more around 25-30 than 40+.
10. Brock Purdy (8)

Tier 3:
11. Bo Nix (12)
12. Jordan Love (9)
13. CJ Stroud (11)
14. Geno Smith (NR), JSN breakout and a healthy DK increase upside, even if it didn't totally work out against SF.
15. Jared Goff (NR), best performance of the season so far in my opinion. Nice reminder of what the upside can be that we hadn't seen in a month.

Dropped off: Kirk Cousins (13), QB22 PPG on the season. Basically destroyed TB and has been mediocre to bad otherwise. At least they keep it mostly confined to the main guys, but that doesn't help his numbers. Caleb Williams (15), played a solid game against GB and the OC change couldn't have hurt, but upcoming schedule is a nightmare. Seattle is the only non top-10 defense they face going forward.
 
RB
Tier 1:
1. Saquon Barkley (2)
2. Bijan Robinson (4)
3. Breece Hall (5)
4. Christian McCaffrey (6)

Tier 2:
5. Alvin Kamara (9)
6. Joe Mixon (7)
7. Derrick Henry (1), I don't think he's playing any worse, I just think its a combo of tougher schedule, and the defense can't get off the field, putting the Ravens into a more pass heavy offense than they want. These last 2 weeks don't feel like flukes to me.
8. Jahmyr Gibbs (8)
9. De'Von Achane (11)
10. Kyren Williams (3), a little less featured with the WRs back. Somewhat of a fluke he hasn't scored a TD in 2 weeks. He earned the downgrade, but he's kind of a buy low too.
11. Kenneth Walker (10)
12. Josh Jacobs (14)

Tier 3:
13. James Conner (13)
14. Jonathan Taylor (12)
15. Chris Brown (23), Mea culpa. I'm still not super impressed by Brown the player, but I can't deny this role. He's basically this year's Kyren Williams. If he tears up Pittsburgh coming out of the bye, he'll hit tier 2.

Tier 4:
16. Aaron Jones (17)
17. David Montgomery (16)
18. James Cook (15)
19. Tyrone Tracy (24)
20. Brian Robinson (26), RB16 PPG. Doesn't catch passes but is a threat to score a TD every week. Basically Monty with a worse OL.
21. Rhamondre Stevenson (21)
22. Chuba Hubbard (19)
23. JK Dobbins (20)
24. Isiah Pacheco (27)

Tier 5:
25. D'Andre Swift (18), hate to overreact to 1 game, but with a new OC, it sure looked like he was in a pretty even split with Roschon Johnson.
26. Najee Harris (28)
27. Tony Pollard (22)
28. Rachaad White (29)
29. Bucky Irving (30)

Tier 6:
30. Rico Dowdle (NR), RB32 on the season, did very little against Houston, but schedule gets easier, and he's the #2 guy after Lamb in my opinion. Could see a spike in checkdowns too. Won't be pretty, but one would think they won't want Rush throwing as much as he did on Monday.

Dropped off: Kareem Hunt (25), I've been taking the position for the most part that its Pacheco's job once he's back. I don't think Hunt disappears, but I could see s setup not unlike what it was with Chubb in Cleveland, only on a much less run heavy offense, and Hunt isn't as good as he was then, and to be fair Pacheco is nowhere near as good as prime Chubb.
 
WR
Tier 1:
1. Ja'Marr Chase (1)
2. Amon-Ra St. Brown (4)
3. Justin Jefferson (2)
4. AJ Brown (3)

Tier 2:
5. Nico Collins (5)
6. Tyreek Hill (7)
7. Cooper Kupp (8)
8. CeeDee Lamb (6)
9. Malik Nabers (11)
10. Garrett Wilson (10)
11. Puka Nacua (12)

Tier 3:
12. Mike Evans (20), WR3 since 2019 in games missed by Chris Godwin. That's probably pushing it, especially as we don't know how healthy Evans himself will be, but a reminder of what the ceiling might be.
13. DK Metcalf (14)
14. Terry McLaurin (13)
15. Drake London (9)
16. George Pickens (22)

Tier 4:
17. Davante Adams (23)
18. Zay Flowers (15)
19. Tee Higgins (19)
20. Ladd McConkey (27), been driving his bandwagon for a year now, still shocked he wasn't a 1st rounder, but Worthy and Legette were. Its possible I'm getting a little too high if the Chargers recent more passing ways are a mirage, but McConkey looks like a star. I always thought he wasn't that dissimilar from Garrett Wilson, hopefully he gets that level of targets at some point to prove it.
21. Deebo Samuel (17)
22. Marvin Harrison (21)

Tier 5:
23. DeVonta Smith (16), pass volume is down in Philly, and Smith has become more boom/bust because of it. Still, he's got so much contingent value and every week TD upside, that he's hard to downgrade too much. He's basically Jayden Reed in a slightly better offense.
24. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (31)
25. Calvin Ridley (26)
26. Jauan Jennings (NR), has had a perfect run out these last 2 weeks, with an unhealthy Deebo, and Kittle missing last week, but he's looked really good, and is unlikely to go back to what he was when the season started with Aiyuk out. I can see some arguing he should be higher than this, but I think there is still a very realistic shot he's just been stepping up when everyone else is banged up, and we get a more whack-a-mole situation going forward. Also possible he could be the new #1. I'm hedging some.
27. Jayden Reed (18), 1 game over 6 targets. He only really shows up when GB gets behind early. On the one hand, other than maybe NO, that could happen in every game going forward for the Packers, but this is the type of WR I really don't like.

Tier 6:
28. Darnell Mooney (24)
29. Courtland Sutton (37), been a solid WR2 since his goose egg. I'm still hesitant to put him up a tier, but its possible that's just because he's Sutton, and his track record suggests mirage.
30. DJ Moore (28)
31. DeAndre Hopkins (29)
32. Khalil Shakir (38)
33. Jakobi Meyers (33)

Tier 7:
34. Jameson Williams (36)
35. Tank Dell (35)
36. Brian Thomas (25), this will be WAY too low if Lawrence is back after the bye, but reading the tea leaves, I kinda think the Jags might shut him down, and shoot for the #1 pick, either trading it for a bunch of picks, or taking Travis Hunter.
37. Jaylen Waddle (30)
38. Josh Downs (32)
39. Cedric Tillman (40)
40. Jerry Jeudy (NR), don't look now, but Jeudy is averaging 10 targets, 6 catches, and 98 yards in the 3 games since Winston took over. If he wasn't Jerry Jeudy I'd want to rank him higher.

Dropped off: Amari Cooper (34), maybe its the wrist injury, but it kinda feels like Cooper was brought in more as a rich man's Gabe Davis and is mostly helping to free up underneath stuff. Romeo Doubs (39), his usage spike post sitting out was short lived. Back to whack-a-mole in GB. Maybe he should take another game off?
 
TE
Tier 1:
1. Brock Bowers (2)
2. Travis Kelce (3)
3. George Kittle (1)
4. Trey McBride (4)
5. Cade Otton (5)

Tier 2:
6. David Njoku (6)
7. Taysom Hill (NR), he's the #2 guy in the offense since Olave went down. The big play TDs were obviously nice, but what really struck me was the 25% target share and the 8 catches. That's never been a big part of his game. If that sticks, he's a tier low.
8. TJ Hockenson (10)
9. Evan Engram (14), high PPR floor even with Mac Jones. Pass game is basically 2 guys in Jacksonville now with Davis joining Kirk on IR.
10. Sam LaPorta (9)
11. Kyle Pitts (7), so up and down, looks a lot worse when you take the TB games out of it, as Cousins owned them for whatever reason. 1 catch in 2 of last 3 games, but ceiling is still high due to big play ability. We'll see how healthy Mooney is.

Tier 3:
12. Dallas Goedert (8), basically the TE version of DeVonta Smith. Takes a backseat to AJ/run game but has high contingency value, and can pop off in any given week.
13. Will Dissly (NR), 6+ targets in 4 of last 5, and has the best schedule of any TE going forward.
14. Mark Andrews (13)
15. Dalton Kincaid (NR), has the bye week to heal up, and it seems like he could see more work than initially thought as Cooper is being used more as a clear out guy. Still unlikely to appease people who expected a top 5 year, but there could still be some value to salvage.

Dropped off: Jake Ferguson (11), currently concussed and the offense likely can't support another pass catcher besides Lamb. Tucker Kraft (12), extremely TD dependent player in a whack a mole passing game. Weather concerns could be coming 2 as all but 2 games are in potential inclement weather. Oh, and those 2 are against the Lions and Vikings, where he could be asked to block more often. Hunter Henry (15), last cutdown. I'd have no major issues slotting him into tier 3, I just think everyone there has more upside.
 
Andrews being used like this. It’s probably better for his long term health but he is Elite when he gets elite usage. Just not the game plan.
 
RkNameTeamWK1WK2WK3WK4WK5WK6WK7WK8WK9WK10WK11TotalAvg FinTop 3Top 5Top 10Travdogg
13HerbertLAC232027221915478915415.40146
15MahomesKC161616131918155112115015.00118
18LoveGB931451235281311914.912212
17StroudHOU10172561215292319192520018.200113
10GoffDET132720229212529115215.233415
 
I always appreciate these lists as I know soo much work goes into them. With that said, I have a couple disagreements with you about the running backs. First of all—I think that any list that doesn’t consider Henry or Mixon as being Tier 1 rb’s for the rest of the season is questionable. I do not trust Bijan, Breece any more than I trust Henry or Mixon. In fact, I probably trust them less. Next—you have Montgomery ranked 17? Dude is basically a touchdown machine in an offense that moves the ball a lot and should continue to provide plenty of opportunity.
 
FWIW in weeks where they both played Stroud is now 2-7-1 head-to-head on the season against Sam Darnold.

0-4-1 in games where Nico played.

Stroud is living off of last season and Darnold being judged for everything that happened prior to this season.
 
David Montgomery DET

Actual Rank - 12

Weekly Finishes
  1. 17
  2. 11
  3. 9
  4. 18
  5. 8
  6. 27
  7. 29
  8. 23
  9. 18
  10. 4
Average Finish 16.4

PPG basis - 13th

Consistency Calculator - 11th (Elite g - 1 | RB1 - 5 | RB2 - 1 | RB3 - 3 | Subpar - 1)
 
Trav, just wondering - with only 6 weeks left in the FF season (no league plays week 18), do your rankings take into account that many players still have byes either this week or week 14? I love reading your rankings, but I really think they should be accompanied by EXACTLY how you are ranking them. Do weeks 15-17 hold more importance than weeks 12-14? If so, what percent? If these are your positional rankings from week 12 onward, is it safe to say your rankings are how you expect the players to finish from here on out? I know I've kind of asked you before, but I never got specific like this. Without explaining how your are ranking the players, the list loses something.
 
RkNameTeamWK1WK2WK3WK4WK5WK6WK7WK8WK9WK10WK11TotalAvg FinTop 3Top 5Top 10Travdogg
13HerbertLAC232027221915478915415.40146
15MahomesKC161616131918155112115015.00118
18LoveGB931451235281311914.912212
17StroudHOU10172561215292319192520018.200113
10GoffDET132720229212529115215.233415

I'm not really interested in hearing from @travdogg on this topic anymore, but I would like to ask The Shark Pool:

  • Do you think it makes sense to rank the QB10 as 15th RoS?

  • Does it make sense to you to have 4 QBs in front of him who collectively have one (1) Top 3 Weekly finish when Goff has three (3)?

  • The Lions now have four (4) games with more TDs than incompletions. Should we continue to credit everyone in Allen Park except Jared Goff?
 
RkNameTeamWK1WK2WK3WK4WK5WK6WK7WK8WK9WK10WK11TotalAvg FinTop 3Top 5Top 10Travdogg
13HerbertLAC232027221915478915415.40146
15MahomesKC161616131918155112115015.00118
18LoveGB931451235281311914.912212
17StroudHOU10172561215292319192520018.200113
10GoffDET132720229212529115215.233415

I'm not really interested in hearing from @travdogg on this topic anymore, but I would like to ask The Shark Pool:

  • Do you think it makes sense to rank the QB10 as 15th RoS?

  • Does it make sense to you to have 4 QBs in front of him who collectively have one (1) Top 3 Weekly finish when Goff has three (3)?

  • The Lions now have four (4) games with more TDs than incompletions. Should we continue to credit everyone in Allen Park except Jared Goff?
They run the ball too much and he doesn't run so id probably rank him somewhere between 10-15. QB12 seems about right. Id put mahomes, Stroud, and geno after him for sure. Everyone else on his list id put ahead of him.
 
RkNameTeamWK1WK2WK3WK4WK5WK6WK7WK8WK9WK10WK11TotalAvg FinTop 3Top 5Top 10Travdogg
13HerbertLAC232027221915478915415.40146
15MahomesKC161616131918155112115015.00118
18LoveGB931451235281311914.912212
17StroudHOU10172561215292319192520018.200113
10GoffDET132720229212529115215.233415

I'm not really interested in hearing from @travdogg on this topic anymore, but I would like to ask The Shark Pool:

  • Do you think it makes sense to rank the QB10 as 15th RoS?

  • Does it make sense to you to have 4 QBs in front of him who collectively have one (1) Top 3 Weekly finish when Goff has three (3)?

  • The Lions now have four (4) games with more TDs than incompletions. Should we continue to credit everyone in Allen Park except Jared Goff?
They run the ball too much and he doesn't run so id probably rank him somewhere between 10-15. QB12 seems about right. Id put mahomes, Stroud, and geno after him for sure. Everyone else on his list id put ahead of him.

Fair

Top 15 QBs sorted by yards rushing Week 11

CHI​
1​
23​
31​
231​
0​
0​
9​
70​
0​
18.6​
LAC​
1​
17​
36​
297​
2​
0​
5​
65​
0​
29.4​
BUF​
1​
27​
40​
262​
1​
1​
12​
55​
1​
28.6​
BAL​
1​
16​
33​
207​
1​
1​
4​
46​
0​
19.0​
SF​
1​
21​
28​
159​
1​
1​
5​
40​
1​
22.0​
PHI​
1​
18​
28​
221​
0​
0​
10​
39​
1​
21.0​
IND​
1​
20​
30​
272​
1​
0​
10​
32​
2​
32.8​
SEA​
1​
25​
32​
221​
0​
1​
4​
29​
1​
20.0​
CIN​
1​
28​
50​
356​
3​
0​
2​
28​
0​
32.6​
10. Drake Maye
NE​
1​
30​
40​
282​
2​
1​
3​
27​
0​
24.8​
HOU​
1​
23​
34​
257​
0​
1​
3​
26​
0​
15.5​
12. Jared Goff
DET​
1​
24​
29​
412​
4​
0​
4​
21​
0​
38.7​
WAS​
1​
22​
32​
191​
1​
1​
7​
18​
0​
15.4​
MIN​
1​
20​
32​
246​
2​
0​
8​
18​
1​
28.1​
15. Will Levis
TEN​
1​
17​
31​
295​
1​
1​
7​
18​
0​
20.6​

Love - 18, Mahomes - 0

Hysterical stat of the Week: PFF gave Goff a Run grade of 76.2, highest in the game. David Montgomery 915-75-2) received a 75.4.
 
I'm not really interested in hearing from @travdogg on this topic anymore, but I would like to ask The Shark Pool:

  • Do you think it makes sense to rank the QB10 as 15th RoS?

  • Does it make sense to you to have 4 QBs in front of him who collectively have one (1) Top 3 Weekly finish when Goff has three (3)?

  • The Lions now have four (4) games with more TDs than incompletions. Should we continue to credit everyone in Allen Park except Jared Goff?

Goff has played great except for a couple dogs. Not sure how much Trav looks at remaining schedule:

at Ind
CHI
GB
Buf
at Chi
at SF

Are there any games there that you find challenging for Goff? At Chi due to weather, Buf & at SF as those are ball control teams and limits opps - if you agree with those, thats the playoffs
 
RkNameTeamWK1WK2WK3WK4WK5WK6WK7WK8WK9WK10WK11TotalAvg FinTop 3Top 5Top 10Travdogg
13HerbertLAC232027221915478915415.40146
15MahomesKC161616131918155112115015.00118
18LoveGB931451235281311914.912212
17StroudHOU10172561215292319192520018.200113
10GoffDET132720229212529115215.233415

I'm not really interested in hearing from @travdogg on this topic anymore, but I would like to ask The Shark Pool:

  • Do you think it makes sense to rank the QB10 as 15th RoS?

  • Does it make sense to you to have 4 QBs in front of him who collectively have one (1) Top 3 Weekly finish when Goff has three (3)?

  • The Lions now have four (4) games with more TDs than incompletions. Should we continue to credit everyone in Allen Park except Jared Goff?
It really comes down to your belief in the Lions posting a few more 50 point games. If you think that is likely then Goff should be in the top 5. If you think the Lions will be closer to 28 most week there's not a lot of meat on the bone after Monty and Gibbs feast.

Personally I'd have him in front of Mahomes, Stroud, and Herbert and behind Love.
 
Lions need to average 38.7 PPG to break Denver’s single season points scored record

They talked about it in media sessions this week

Lions are averaging 38.7 PPG the last 6 games
 
Andrews being used like this. It’s probably better for his long term health but he is Elite when he gets elite usage. Just not the game plan.
100% agree. He still looks like a top-5 TE to me, but he's often not a part of the gameplan at all. I understand Flowers (and obviously Henry) being ahead of him, he's explosive and dangerous after the catch, but why he doesn't see like 8 targets a week is frustrating to say the least. At first it seemed like it was hangover from his preseason accident, but 11 weeks in, its just what the offense is now.
 
For a FA pick up, who's the better option:

Richardson or Tua?
I'd say Tua. Both for this week and going forward. This week Richardson has a tough Lions matchup, the exact type of D that could lead to multiple INTs. Whereas Tua has a NE defense that is more middle of the road.

Long term, Richardson still has a bye, and I'm not sure if his redzone running is sticky or not. It should be, but for whatever reason it hadn't really been a factor until last week. I'm also a little worried that last week was more about a Jets defense that gave up weeks ago, than anything Richardson did. Also, in Tua's favor is better weapons (Hill is starting to warm up even if he's not hitting deep at the moment) and just being a much better QB.
 
FWIW in weeks where they both played Stroud is now 2-7-1 head-to-head on the season against Sam Darnold.

0-4-1 in games where Nico played.

Stroud is living off of last season and Darnold being judged for everything that happened prior to this season.
Yeah, I'm betting on the return of Nico (that 77-yard TD would have been nice) being the catalyst for better numbers, also the nice schedule, and Mixon having some TD regression that goes to the pass game. But I don't fully disagree, I'm not sure there have been many more disappointing fantasy players than Stroud. Sure he's had a banged up WR room, but he should be better than he's been. Its been a bit of a sophomore slump, and a lot of that is him, and not his teammates.

Darnold was in the 20-15 cutdowns, but I'd have little argument against them being in the same tier.
 
RkNameTeamWK1WK2WK3WK4WK5WK6WK7WK8WK9WK10WK11TotalAvg FinTop 3Top 5Top 10Travdogg
13HerbertLAC232027221915478915415.40146
15MahomesKC161616131918155112115015.00118
18LoveGB931451235281311914.912212
17StroudHOU10172561215292319192520018.200113
10GoffDET132720229212529115215.233415
I know you want to hear from others so I'll be brief here. I totally get Goff over Stroud or even Love. But Mahomes has more points over the last month (coinciding with Hopkins arrival) even with Goff's monster week 11. I didn't see any arguments for Goff coming off the 5-INT game. As an aside, if a guy can throw 5 INTs in a game and his team still wins, especially over a good team, that kinda tells me that guy has no business being an MVP candidate.

I have a really hard time getting the argument for Goff over Herbert, who has a clearly ascendent trend based on him getting healthy and his WRs breaking out as his top 2 guys are a rookie and a 2nd year guy who looked like a bust as a rookie. I mean, by this very chart, Herbert has been a top-10 guy every week for a month. To me anyway, I don't think what a guy like Herbert did weeks 1-4 mean anything. He's QB6 over the last month.
 
16. Aaron Jones (17)
17. David Montgomery (16)
Great work as always.

Another 95 yards (with 3 receptions) and 2 TDs and Monty drops behind the guy who has 3 TDs on the season.
Monty is tough for me, because its so TD based. When he doesn't hit it really hurts, but he usually hits. In general I try to avoid TD reliant guys as I find that less reliable than yards or catches, but Monty is really stretching that. Prior to the Jags annihilation he was coming off having 13 or fewer touches in 4 of his last 5, and no more than 33 rush yards in 3 of 4 games.

I can absolutely see the case for him over Jones. I trust Jones yards and receptions more, though they have come up short the last couple weeks, which I attribute to playing through a rib/chest injury. I'm not worried about Akers, I am slightly concerned that Hockenson's return could lower the receptions a bit as they don't seem to be calling as many screens for Jones, though again, that may be injury related as well.

I'd start Monty over Jones this week for sure, given the Colts/Bears matchups. Next week when its Bears/Cardinals, I'd probably lean Jones.
 
Andrews being used like this. It’s probably better for his long term health but he is Elite when he gets elite usage. Just not the game plan.
100% agree. He still looks like a top-5 TE to me, but he's often not a part of the gameplan at all. I understand Flowers (and obviously Henry) being ahead of him, he's explosive and dangerous after the catch, but why he doesn't see like 8 targets a week is frustrating to say the least. At first it seemed like it was hangover from his preseason accident, but 11 weeks in, its just what the offense is now.
No Jonnu Smith in TE rankings? He's currently
Ranked #9 in my league and has a qb that gets the ball out quickly to avoid getting hit.
Yeah this seems like a huge miss.
The quibble here seems like a lack of total consistency between leaning into usage vs underlying talent.

Smith is a career journeyman who's current role is very fantasy friendly. He's always been a guy that can do things but not very many of them. I'm old enough to remember him on Patriots. And the Titans. And the Falcons. His snap % has hovered around 40% for most of the season but has three games that are in a different tier. Weeks 8, 9 and 11. 66,69,81% with a 43% sandwiched in there. It seems clear that the Miami passing game has tier 1- Hill and three guys sharing tier 2 in terms of targets. Waddle, Achane and Smith.

The argument against Smith is that Achane and Waddle-- based on underlying talent-- should be getting fed more opportunities. But that's not what's happening so it's hard to deny that going forward, he belongs in the conversation of mid to low end TE1s.
 
16. Aaron Jones (17)
17. David Montgomery (16)
Great work as always.

Another 95 yards (with 3 receptions) and 2 TDs and Monty drops behind the guy who has 3 TDs on the season.
Monty is tough for me, because its so TD based. When he doesn't hit it really hurts, but he usually hits. In general I try to avoid TD reliant guys as I find that less reliable than yards or catches, but Monty is really stretching that. Prior to the Jags annihilation he was coming off having 13 or fewer touches in 4 of his last 5, and no more than 33 rush yards in 3 of 4 games.

I can absolutely see the case for him over Jones. I trust Jones yards and receptions more, though they have come up short the last couple weeks, which I attribute to playing through a rib/chest injury. I'm not worried about Akers, I am slightly concerned that Hockenson's return could lower the receptions a bit as they don't seem to be calling as many screens for Jones, though again, that may be injury related as well.

I'd start Monty over Jones this week for sure, given the Colts/Bears matchups. Next week when its Bears/Cardinals, I'd probably lean Jones.

The thing with Monty is, i'd imagine he was drafted as no more than a useful flex by most people. I took him in the 7th as my RB3, not expecting much more than a few points a week and the occasional spot start.

As the season has rolled on, every week you see Detroit up 7-0, or 14-0 and there's Monty with 30-1 in the first quarter and you've already got 9 points and he's worth the spot in your lineup every single week. I find him hard to rank really because I see the yardage argument and Gibbs is a really special player who tends to flash more. But Gibbs in the late first or Monty in the early 7th, just outrageous value this year and I just can't bench him.

If I had Jones, as a comparison, it's Monty every time, not even close really. From your latest list, I like him in the 10-12 range and I tend to doubt there's been a better RB value this year.
 
I always appreciate these lists as I know soo much work goes into them. With that said, I have a couple disagreements with you about the running backs. First of all—I think that any list that doesn’t consider Henry or Mixon as being Tier 1 rb’s for the rest of the season is questionable. I do not trust Bijan, Breece any more than I trust Henry or Mixon. In fact, I probably trust them less. Next—you have Montgomery ranked 17? Dude is basically a touchdown machine in an offense that moves the ball a lot and should continue to provide plenty of opportunity.
I think its slipped under the radar a bit how awesome Bijan has been up until this past week. he had 5 straight games over 21.5 PPR points. That matches what he looks like on tape, as he's very much looked like a top-10 drafted RB. Elite elusiveness and showing that dynamic pass catching ability that drew Edgerrin James comps before last year's draft. Also was getting the volume with 18-26 touches a game during that stretch. He has 19 more points than Henry over the last month.

Hall I can see the issue more, though he's been neck and neck with Henry the last month and has arguably the best schedule of any RB going forward. He has been quite a bit better since the Hackett demotion, averaging 5 YPC, and banishing Braelon Allen to a backup role. I think he's a good bet for 100 total yards and 4-5 catches a week going forward. He's had some bad TD luck I think corrects itself too. That may have already started.

Mixon is guy who could be higher. What dings him for me, is the worst playoff schedule of any RB (though he may be matchup proof) and a still to come bye week. He is absolutely a candidate to be RB1 in any given week before that though, with games against the Jags/Titans/Dolphins.

Henry the player is elite. Honestly could argue he's the best RB of the last 20 years. The Ravens D terrifies me, and Henry doesn't play in passing scripts. He's also got a horrible remaining schedule except for the NYG, where he either plays a team that could destroy the Ravens D, an elite defense, or both in the case of Philly. Henry has 77 or fewer yards in 3 of his last 4 games, and while he's scored a TD in all of those games, he adds zero as a receiver. Perhaps I'm overreacting, but I have volume concerns with Henry, and I say this as someone who had Henry as a top 3 RB this offseason. Really didn't see the Ravens D being bad, let alone this bad.
 
Trav, just wondering - with only 6 weeks left in the FF season (no league plays week 18), do your rankings take into account that many players still have byes either this week or week 14? I love reading your rankings, but I really think they should be accompanied by EXACTLY how you are ranking them. Do weeks 15-17 hold more importance than weeks 12-14? If so, what percent? If these are your positional rankings from week 12 onward, is it safe to say your rankings are how you expect the players to finish from here on out? I know I've kind of asked you before, but I never got specific like this. Without explaining how your are ranking the players, the list loses something.
Its an effort to include all of those things. Playoff schedule, remaining byes, how they could finish. Bits of all it factor in. I do tend to focus more on range of outcomes, so I do tend to sometimes undervalue TDs and spike weeks, and overvalue volume and consistency. But sometimes that also doesn't happen, as sometimes I just don't like or believe in a player, and view them as more fluky, or as having bad luck.

Aaron Jones is a great example of a guy who I think has had some bad luck, as he's been tackled on the 1-2 yard line 6 times in the last 3 games and has 0 TDs. Nothing about his usage could change and he could have had 3-4 TDs these last 3 games, naturally Akers punched 1 in last week. But the point is, how much should I downgrade Jones knowing he was so close to scoring in every game? I try to factor usage in a lot, process over results, but that's hard when its been a decent sample size.

On the flip side of that, is someone like Chase Brown, who has arguably the best usage of any RB in the NFL, but no track record, and not particularly impressive rate stats. I was admittedly too slow to fully get on board (I play in 5 leagues and had him in 2, so I wasn't totally against him, but had tempered expectations and "sold high" in 1.) but how high can I push a guy who is under 4 YPC pretty much every week he isn't playing a bottom of the barrel defense. Rate stats tend to be predictive of future production, but Brown is breaking the mold with his workload, so does that logic apply?

Anyway, I'm not sure that really answers the question, but in an effort to attempt to do that, I'd say its probably 80-90% how I think they'll finish going forward, with maybe 10-20% boost for playoff schedule. I factor in byes a little, but not as a 0, but more a value vs an average bench player. Like with say Bijan, its not like you are getting a zero at RB with him on bye, most can probably plug in say Bucky Irving or someone of that ilk. I've never liked the idea that a person gets downgraded too much because of a bye, because that's just either bad roster management or awful injury luck, if a person doesn't have an option to plug in when they knew long ahead of time that they needed one.
 
No Jonnu Smith in TE rankings? He's currently
Ranked #9 in my league and has a qb that gets the ball out quickly to avoid getting hit.
He was in the 20-15 cutdown. It might be unfair, but I pretty much am throwing out his 57-yard TD from this week. He just ran forward, and nobody went with him, there wasn't even another player on the screen when he caught the ball. Take that away and his last 4 games (the Tua games) are: 4-20, 5-46, 3-45, 5-44-1.
 
RkNameTeamWK1WK2WK3WK4WK5WK6WK7WK8WK9WK10WK11TotalAvg FinTop 3Top 5Top 10Travdogg
13HerbertLAC232027221915478915415.40146
15MahomesKC161616131918155112115015.00118
18LoveGB931451235281311914.912212
17StroudHOU10172561215292319192520018.200113
10GoffDET132720229212529115215.233415

I'm not really interested in hearing from @travdogg on this topic anymore, but I would like to ask The Shark Pool:

  • Do you think it makes sense to rank the QB10 as 15th RoS?

  • Does it make sense to you to have 4 QBs in front of him who collectively have one (1) Top 3 Weekly finish when Goff has three (3)?

  • The Lions now have four (4) games with more TDs than incompletions. Should we continue to credit everyone in Allen Park except Jared Goff?

This is a going FORWARD analysis. Past results are not relevant because opponents are not the same. There are a ton of factors as to why @travdogg might have Goff ranked 15th going FORWARD. Don't take rankings so personal. The opponents the Lions face have really good pass defenses, probably better than the defenses the guys ahead of him might face. CHI (twice) has a top 10 pass defense, SF top 10 pass defense, BUF and GB have middle ranking pass defenses, so this week against IND and week 18 (which travdogg might not have included) are the only times Goff will face a bottom pass D. For example, Stroud gets to face JAX and BAL (in week 17 which might be a Championship week), Love gets to face DET, NO and MIN (in week 17). I'm not going to do the rest of the guys but you get the point.
 
No Jonnu Smith in TE rankings? He's currently
Ranked #9 in my league and has a qb that gets the ball out quickly to avoid getting hit.
He was in the 20-15 cutdown. It might be unfair, but I pretty much am throwing out his 57-yard TD from this week. He just ran forward, and nobody went with him, there wasn't even another player on the screen when he caught the ball. Take that away and his last 4 games (the Tua games) are: 4-20, 5-46, 3-45, 5-44-1.
Similar to Engram who you have #9. Fact is Smith's usage has been on the up and he is being targeted more than either WR right now.
 
No Jonnu Smith in TE rankings? He's currently
Ranked #9 in my league and has a qb that gets the ball out quickly to avoid getting hit.
He was in the 20-15 cutdown. It might be unfair, but I pretty much am throwing out his 57-yard TD from this week. He just ran forward, and nobody went with him, there wasn't even another player on the screen when he caught the ball. Take that away and his last 4 games (the Tua games) are: 4-20, 5-46, 3-45, 5-44-1.
Similar to Engram who you have #9. Fact is Smith's usage has been on the up and he is being targeted more than either WR right now.
Engram did just lose another source of target competition, not that Gabe Davis is a good player, but he was a part of that offense.

Smith has fewer targets than Hill or Achane since Tua came back. Are his targets on the up? He averages 6 per game since Tua came back, his last 2 games with Huntley he had 8 and 7. He's ahead of Waddle in the pecking order, and as an aside I almost kicked Waddle off the list, but the second I do, I feel like he'll hit a 50-yard TD of his own and make me look silly. Its criminal how little he's being used, both given his talent, and the recent contract extension he signed.

Just kinda feels like it might be an overreaction to a 6-101-2 week, where 57-1 came on a broken play against an awful defense. Great start last week. but not confident it means anything going forward.
 
No Jonnu Smith in TE rankings? He's currently
Ranked #9 in my league and has a qb that gets the ball out quickly to avoid getting hit.
He was in the 20-15 cutdown. It might be unfair, but I pretty much am throwing out his 57-yard TD from this week. He just ran forward, and nobody went with him, there wasn't even another player on the screen when he caught the ball. Take that away and his last 4 games (the Tua games) are: 4-20, 5-46, 3-45, 5-44-1.
Take that TD out and he would be ranked #14 still over the last 4 weeks.
 
8. Patrick Mahomes (7)
I'm going to keep beating the same drum until something changes. Patrick Mahomes weekly rankings in his last 17 starts (oldest to newest): 10, 14, 9, 17, 19, 18, 18, 18, 15, 20, 16, 18, 18, 18, 16, 4, 11, 20. His average ranking in that time has been 16.4. His ADP was QB2. Anyone starting him over the past year has been seeing a net negative in QB scoring vs. the rest of the QBs in their leagues (in normal sized start 1 QB leagues). He's had one Top 10 finish in 15 weeks. At what point is it time to accept that the Mahomes resurrection isn't going to happen this year?
 
No Jonnu Smith in TE rankings? He's currently
Ranked #9 in my league and has a qb that gets the ball out quickly to avoid getting hit.
He was in the 20-15 cutdown. It might be unfair, but I pretty much am throwing out his 57-yard TD from this week. He just ran forward, and nobody went with him, there wasn't even another player on the screen when he caught the ball. Take that away and his last 4 games (the Tua games) are: 4-20, 5-46, 3-45, 5-44-1.
So basically better than LaPorta, Pitts, Kincaid, Cmet and every other TE I overdrafted this year.
 
8. Patrick Mahomes (7)
I'm going to keep beating the same drum until something changes. Patrick Mahomes weekly rankings in his last 17 starts (oldest to newest): 10, 14, 9, 17, 19, 18, 18, 18, 15, 20, 16, 18, 18, 18, 16, 4, 11, 20. His average ranking in that time has been 16.4. His ADP was QB2. Anyone starting him over the past year has been seeing a net negative in QB scoring vs. the rest of the QBs in their leagues (in normal sized start 1 QB leagues). He's had one Top 10 finish in 15 weeks. At what point is it time to accept that the Mahomes resurrection isn't going to happen this year?
Well he did bump him down a spot this week. Travdogg had been doing that every week and he'd be out of the top 15 by now if it hadn't be for that 4 that he overreacted to. This is the type of stubbornness I can identify with as a laporta owner that won't pull the plug.
 
8. Patrick Mahomes (7)
I'm going to keep beating the same drum until something changes. Patrick Mahomes weekly rankings in his last 17 starts (oldest to newest): 10, 14, 9, 17, 19, 18, 18, 18, 15, 20, 16, 18, 18, 18, 16, 4, 11, 20. His average ranking in that time has been 16.4. His ADP was QB2. Anyone starting him over the past year has been seeing a net negative in QB scoring vs. the rest of the QBs in their leagues (in normal sized start 1 QB leagues). He's had one Top 10 finish in 15 weeks. At what point is it time to accept that the Mahomes resurrection isn't going to happen this year?
Well he did bump him down a spot this week. Travdogg had been doing that every week and he'd be out of the top 15 by now if it hadn't be for that 4 that he overreacted to. This is the type of stubbornness I can identify with as a laporta owner that won't pull the plug.
I guess it depends on when people start researching and evaluating players. I had Mahomes in my preseason QB rankings in the 10-12 range. His numbers and situation did not appear to me to be similar to his numbers and personnel of several years ago. To me, since the season started, Mahomes has continued on his path of being a slightly above average fantasy QB (but a smart and winning NFL QB). I wasn't going to draft him, and I wasn't going to trade for him this year. For me, he was always ranked too high for this year, and it's taken some folks time to adjust perceived value vs. actual value. Of course, now that we've discussed this, PM will go crazy and put up 440/4 against Carolina.
 
RkNameTeamWK1WK2WK3WK4WK5WK6WK7WK8WK9WK10WK11TotalAvg FinTop 3Top 5Top 10Travdogg
13HerbertLAC232027221915478915415.40146
15MahomesKC161616131918155112115015.00118
18LoveGB931451235281311914.912212
17StroudHOU10172561215292319192520018.200113
10GoffDET132720229212529115215.233415

I'm not really interested in hearing from @travdogg on this topic anymore, but I would like to ask The Shark Pool:

  • Do you think it makes sense to rank the QB10 as 15th RoS?

  • Does it make sense to you to have 4 QBs in front of him who collectively have one (1) Top 3 Weekly finish when Goff has three (3)?

  • The Lions now have four (4) games with more TDs than incompletions. Should we continue to credit everyone in Allen Park except Jared Goff?
It really comes down to your belief in the Lions posting a few more 50 point games. If you think that is likely then Goff should be in the top 5. If you think the Lions will be closer to 28 most week there's not a lot of meat on the bone after Monty and Gibbs feast.

Personally I'd have him in front of Mahomes, Stroud, and Herbert and behind Love.
24 points this week and Goff will probably have another sub 20th finish. I started him this week and left both Caleb and ARich on the bench. 10.7 points is a gut punch and like an L as a result.

I'm not sure how this is possible, but after this week you'll have exactly two Goff performances from QB3 and QB20
 
RkNameTeamWK1WK2WK3WK4WK5WK6WK7WK8WK9WK10WK11TotalAvg FinTop 3Top 5Top 10Travdogg
13HerbertLAC232027221915478915415.40146
15MahomesKC161616131918155112115015.00118
18LoveGB931451235281311914.912212
17StroudHOU10172561215292319192520018.200113
10GoffDET132720229212529115215.233415

I'm not really interested in hearing from @travdogg on this topic anymore, but I would like to ask The Shark Pool:

  • Do you think it makes sense to rank the QB10 as 15th RoS?

  • Does it make sense to you to have 4 QBs in front of him who collectively have one (1) Top 3 Weekly finish when Goff has three (3)?

  • The Lions now have four (4) games with more TDs than incompletions. Should we continue to credit everyone in Allen Park except Jared Goff?
It really comes down to your belief in the Lions posting a few more 50 point games. If you think that is likely then Goff should be in the top 5. If you think the Lions will be closer to 28 most week there's not a lot of meat on the bone after Monty and Gibbs feast.

Personally I'd have him in front of Mahomes, Stroud, and Herbert and behind Love.
24 points this week and Goff will probably have another sub 20th finish. I started him this week and left both Caleb and ARich on the bench. 10.7 points is a gut punch and like an L as a result.

I'm not sure how this is possible, but after this week you'll have exactly two Goff performances from QB3 and QB20

I didn't start him this week

:lol:
 
RkNameTeamWK1WK2WK3WK4WK5WK6WK7WK8WK9WK10WK11TotalAvg FinTop 3Top 5Top 10Travdogg
13HerbertLAC232027221915478915415.40146
15MahomesKC161616131918155112115015.00118
18LoveGB931451235281311914.912212
17StroudHOU10172561215292319192520018.200113
10GoffDET132720229212529115215.233415

I'm not really interested in hearing from @travdogg on this topic anymore, but I would like to ask The Shark Pool:

  • Do you think it makes sense to rank the QB10 as 15th RoS?

  • Does it make sense to you to have 4 QBs in front of him who collectively have one (1) Top 3 Weekly finish when Goff has three (3)?

  • The Lions now have four (4) games with more TDs than incompletions. Should we continue to credit everyone in Allen Park except Jared Goff?
It really comes down to your belief in the Lions posting a few more 50 point games. If you think that is likely then Goff should be in the top 5. If you think the Lions will be closer to 28 most week there's not a lot of meat on the bone after Monty and Gibbs feast.

Personally I'd have him in front of Mahomes, Stroud, and Herbert and behind Love.
24 points this week and Goff will probably have another sub 20th finish. I started him this week and left both Caleb and ARich on the bench. 10.7 points is a gut punch and like an L as a result.

I'm not sure how this is possible, but after this week you'll have exactly two Goff performances from QB3 and QB20

I didn't start him this week

:lol:
Congrats. I just roll him out because I'm scared I'll miss the weeks he finishes 1/2.
 
No Jonnu Smith in TE rankings? He's currently
Ranked #9 in my league and has a qb that gets the ball out quickly to avoid getting hit.
He was in the 20-15 cutdown. It might be unfair, but I pretty much am throwing out his 57-yard TD from this week. He just ran forward, and nobody went with him, there wasn't even another player on the screen when he caught the ball. Take that away and his last 4 games (the Tua games) are: 4-20, 5-46, 3-45, 5-44-1.
How bout now?
 
No Jonnu Smith in TE rankings? He's currently
Ranked #9 in my league and has a qb that gets the ball out quickly to avoid getting hit.
He was in the 20-15 cutdown. It might be unfair, but I pretty much am throwing out his 57-yard TD from this week. He just ran forward, and nobody went with him, there wasn't even another player on the screen when he caught the ball. Take that away and his last 4 games (the Tua games) are: 4-20, 5-46, 3-45, 5-44-1.
How bout now?
This was easily his most impressive game.
 
RkNameTeamWK1WK2WK3WK4WK5WK6WK7WK8WK9WK10WK11TotalAvg FinTop 3Top 5Top 10Travdogg
13HerbertLAC232027221915478915415.40146
15MahomesKC161616131918155112115015.00118
18LoveGB931451235281311914.912212
17StroudHOU10172561215292319192520018.200113
10GoffDET132720229212529115215.233415

I'm not really interested in hearing from @travdogg on this topic anymore, but I would like to ask The Shark Pool:

  • Do you think it makes sense to rank the QB10 as 15th RoS?

  • Does it make sense to you to have 4 QBs in front of him who collectively have one (1) Top 3 Weekly finish when Goff has three (3)?

  • The Lions now have four (4) games with more TDs than incompletions. Should we continue to credit everyone in Allen Park except Jared Goff?
It really comes down to your belief in the Lions posting a few more 50 point games. If you think that is likely then Goff should be in the top 5. If you think the Lions will be closer to 28 most week there's not a lot of meat on the bone after Monty and Gibbs feast.

Personally I'd have him in front of Mahomes, Stroud, and Herbert and behind Love.
24 points this week and Goff will probably have another sub 20th finish. I started him this week and left both Caleb and ARich on the bench. 10.7 points is a gut punch and like an L as a result.

I'm not sure how this is possible, but after this week you'll have exactly two Goff performances from QB3 and QB20

I didn't start him this week

:lol:
Congrats. I just roll him out because I'm scared I'll miss the weeks he finishes 1/2.

I’m sick & was screwing around with my lineup laying on the couch, fell asleep, accidentally started Love - wasn’t such a hot week for him either

gonna be one of those made the playoffs did nothing years (again)
 

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