Someone already said it, but the Patriots were in much worse shape last season, and they had a MUCH more difficult schedule - something like 4 2004 division winners in their first 6 games, and most of them on the road. Despite the schedule, no running game, and a secondary that was freaking TERRIBLE (shredded by such elite NFL QB's like Matt Shaub and Gus Frerotte who both went over 300 yards), they still went 10-6 while mailing in the last game of the season.
They're healthier (duh since it's pre-season) this year, the seconday is sured up with the emergene of Ellis Hobbs, the return of Randall Gay, and belive it or not, if Rodney isn't ready (and he's been practicing with regularity) T-Buck is an upgrade over the deadbeats they had starting at safety last season.
You can make what you will aobut the WR group if you want, but when Branch comes back, this group is comparable to last season. Givens was a great player for us, but he was a solid possession receiver, nothing more. Valuable yes, but not something that's going to set this team back a great deal being without. Branch really has no choice but to come back, and he's already been putting up the white flag in recent interviews on the local wire. The lack of depth at the WR is just not that critical for this offense and Tom Brady.
My main concern with the Patriots is the lack of depth at LB. I think they have the deepest and best DL in the NFL, and I almost wish they'd consider moving to a 4-3 to get Wilfork, Seymour, Warren, AND Green on the field at the same time, while also covering up some lack of depth at LB. Vrabel, Colvin, Bruschi (when he comes back) would be a formidable group. As it stands right now, the starters are probably Colving at OLB, Seaue at ILB ( :( ), Vrabel at ILB or OLB depending, and...Beisel? Quite disconcerting.
But in general, I think they have a cake schedule this season - I expect them to go 4-2 in the division at WORST dropping the game @ Miami (always seem to play like crap there), and maybe letting one game slip out of the other 5 division games (2 against Jets, 2 against Buffalo, 1 against Miami). So 4-2 is a conservative guess in division games, I think.
Top opponents: Out of Denver at home, @ Cin, Indy at home, Chicago at home, I think they can get a split. 2-2 - probably beating Denver and Chicago at home, and losing to Cin and Indy. 6-4 so far.
I think they beat Jacksonville at Jacksonville. Just awlays seem to own Jacksonville. 7-4.
Out of the remaining games, I think the Pats are the superior team:
@ Minn, @ GB, Vs. Det, Vs. Hou, @ Ten
Minnesota will probably provide the toughest game of the group, but that's not saying much. I cannot envision them going worse than 4-1 against these teams.
11-5 with "upside". I think 12-4 is more likely. Division champs.
My

while trying to be an unbiased