One more Mock for the road.... (1 Viewer)

[MLBrandow]

Just looking for some more Homer Feedback here. I bit the trade bait here. With Houston moving to the 43, pairing John Abraham with Travis Johnson just sounds like pure evil.

I'm especially looking for any Raiders, Ravens, Bears, Panthers or Jaguar homers, because I haven't yet really studied too in-depth on their offseasons, (Ravens especially), and any in-depth analysis or insight you can provide would be especially helpful, as far as any players or positions you see them targeting, or other free agency moves, either in re-signing or letting go team players.

Thanks again, look forward to busting out another uber in-depth mock sometime in early March (looking at about the 2nd week right now).

Link to Last Mock + Others

1. NYJ Matt Leinart

Yes, I'm crazy and I think it will happen.

2. NO Jay Cutler

Cutler on the rise, Young on the fall. Payton is a pocket passer kinda guy. No way he wants Young over Cutler.

3. TEN Reggie Bush

Have to believe Chow is salivating. Look for Henry or Brown to be dealt.

4. HOU D'Brickashaw Ferguson

And there was much rejoicing.

5. GB Haloti Ngata

With Jackson's departure, Ngata is the best overall defensive player who also fills the biggest need and can make the most impact on this defense.

6. SF Vernon Davis

Worst Offense + Worst Defense, really could go either way. Lot more talent on defense for this team, and they have to give Alex Smith more playmakers. A TE who can block that runs in the 4.3s? Yowza!

7. OAK AJ Hawk

Gotta be a dream pick here. Kirk Morrison + Danny Clark + AJ Hawk = one of the top Linebacking corps for the next decade.

8. BUF Winston Justice

Prime example of a team with all the weapons on offense that can't execute due to poor OL.

9. DET Mario Williams

Building the Tampa-2 starts up front....Williams is not only the best player available, but adds the Simeon Rice-type for the Lions D.

10. ARI Vince Young

And there was much rejoicing. Denny Green might be the happiest man on draft day.

11. STL Jimmy Williams

Pencil Pick at the moment... great value, great need, no reason to believe it won't happen.

12. CLE Manny Lawson

People say CLE wants DT badly, but they won't get Ngata, and Watson here would be way too high. They can probably grab him in the 2nd round, and if not, can trade up a few spots to grab him.

13. BAL Michael Huff

Huff + Ed Reed = ouch. This is a team with a lot fewer needs than the other teams picking around them. An injury-free year and an impact Defensive rookie might be just enough to push them back into the playoffs.

14. PHI Chad Greenway

Johnson's knack for blitzing+ Greenway's love for blitzing = match made in heaven. At that, I don't expect PHI to be picking here. I have no idea how their draft board is set up, but I guarantee you they will be trading up or down to get whatever guy they want most.

15. ATL DeAngelo Williams

Replacement for Dunn that is way too good a value to pass up at this point in the draft.

16. MIA Bobby Carpenter

MIA should be thinking 34 OLB here, whomever they decide is the best option.

17. MIN LenDale White

Pencil Pick as well. Pair White with Fason/Moore next year to get your thunder and lightning that Childress loves so much.

18. DAL Kamerion Wimbley

Here's another 34 OLB. Dallas should be on the move for a Linebacker after some departures this offseason in Dat Nguyen and Al Singleton. Could go ILB here, but LB is likely to be the pick.

19. SD Chad Jackson

Normally I'd be in the small group to say that SD has a fine young receiving corps, but Jackson had a monster combine and would be a great pickup here, as SD simply has a lot of talent at WR but no true no.1 receiver.

20. KC Brodrick Bunkley

Pencil Pick. KC needs an impact DT. Insert Buckley

21. NE D'Qwell Jackson

Figured I'd try to be like NE and pick a player nobody ever thought of but that nobody will question.

22. DEN Mathias Kiwanuka

Lot of mocks have him going to DEN at 29... I can't see him dropping that far.

23. TB Sinorice Moss

Still my lock of the draft. OT is overblown, but they could decide to go DT here if they want to part ways with McFarland, which I'm suddenly hearing will not be the case, so I think Moss to TB here is still a lock. Depending on whether Brooks takes his $5M reduction this offseason, Bucs may opt to take DeMeco Ryans here and throw him at Sam for a year then move him to Will to replace Brooks.

24. CIN Claude Wroten

Pencil Pick. Biggest need is DT. May not be able to resist grabbing one of the blue-chip TEs though.

25. NYG Tye Hill

Pencil Pick. CB biggest need... great value for Hill who can come in and start.

26. CHI Ashton Youboty

Lot of people have them going offense, but their defense won all of their games for them last year. They can't afford any drop-off, and with the my predicted addition of Randel El here, they won't be so concerned about adding a playmaker.

27. CAR Santonio Holmes

Woohoo! Could go DT if one dropped.

28. JAX DeMeco Ryans

CB or LB here, but Ryans would be a solid plug and play LB here who can immediately contribute.

29. DEN Ko Simpson

They can move Lynch back over to SS and bring Ko in to be FS. Upgrades both positions for one pick.

30. IND Antonio Cromartie

Not a lot of needs here. Cromartie may be able to come in and start from Day 1, but can also stay back and develop if need be.

31. SEA Ernie Sims

Perfect Sambacker for a team that needs one. Should have one of the best LB corps in the NFL for years to come.

32. PIT Charles Spencer

Another team with no glaring needs. This pick will depend heavily on how their free agency goes.

 

[5Rings]

Looks good to me. I think Davis to SF makes way too much sense, but if AJ Hawk falls he'd be tough to pass up.....

 

[Spartans Rule]

Mario Williams to the Lions... I don't think he'll be there, but he would be a great value.

Something to watch will be how the Lions handle Kalimba Edwards. The new staff claimed he was their #1 priority entering the offseason, but apparently they have not made him an offer. If they blow him off, they might be thinking Williams could slip.

 

[Chaos Commish]

I ain't buying Cutler that high yet, and I have been explaining the possibility at length in another thread. Bush is #1. Other than that I like this mock. A lot.



eta I don't like the WRs this early, but two will probably make round one. I doubt you can be talked out of the Moss pick though.

 

[Ridgelake]

Looks pretty good. I can definitely see Dallas taking Wimbley after his fairly strong combine. Unfortunately, I think Lawson will be taken above 18. Carpenter perhaps as well.

I also think Dallas will strongly consider Gabe Watson.

I agree with Spartans that Mario Williams won't likely make it to Detroit. He is a prototype 4-3 DE. They don't make many of those. I have a hard time seeing a team taking Hawk over Williams. They are both great playmakers. But Williams is the more rare player.

 

[Barry Jive and The Uptown Five]

The Professor was on ESPN Radio with Mike & Mike this morning and had this to say about Cutler.

He helped himself at the combine by being the only top QB to work out. He's cleaerly the #3 QB in this draft.

Cutler showed good arm strength in throwing the out route.

But Jay did not have the "wow" factor to make a huge move.

Has probably solidified himself as a mid-1st RDer....

definitely not a #2 overall kind of guy.

Clayton also poo-pooed the #4pick/Abraham deal for the #1 for a variety of reasons.

1. HOU HAS to come out of this draft with either Bush or Young. The fans would disown the team if the result was anything else. The Texans really can't trade down below the #3.

2. Due to Abraham's franchise status. He has to name what teams he's willing to play for. He has to get a contract signed and in place well before the draft. There were several other logistical/timing issues which CLayton referred to which made this deal a "no chance in hell" kind of thing.

 

[msommer]

If Bush is availble at #3 I'd expect to see the Titans move down in a trade

 

[Reaper]

Clayton also poo-pooed the #4pick/Abraham deal for the #1 for a variety of reasons.

1. HOU HAS to come out of this draft with either Bush or Young. The fans would disown the team if the result was anything else. The Texans really can't trade down below the #3.

2. Due to Abraham's franchise status. He has to name what teams he's willing to play for. He has to get a contract signed and in place well before the draft. There were several other logistical/timing issues which CLayton referred to which made this deal a "no chance in hell" kind of thing.

Basically that's where I've stood when I have read these mocks... Especially when they talk about moving UP for Bush...I think if Bradway was still here, once again, he'd be looking for headlines and to make a splash and he'd be a A LOT more likely to pull off such a move...

With Mangini / Tannenbaum, I think they are in it for the long haul and aren't looking to impress anyone with fancy draft day moves - I think they sit still at 4 or move down and aquire picks... Signing the #1 pick of the draft seems like the last thing these guys want to get into - Especially when the talent is still there at pick 4.

I could even see them stockpiling picks for next year and getting maybe a #1 for Abe in next year's draft if they can't get one this year. This way they don't have to worry about signing so many contracts until next year when the cap looks bit better and Pennington might be gone altogether.

 

[fatkid]

5. GB Haloti Ngata

With Jackson's departure, Ngata is the best overall defensive player who also fills the biggest need and can make the most impact on this defense.

Green Bay has 4 young defensive tackles they can use ina rotation. None are as big as Ngata or Jackson, but they have some depth there.

At DE, they have KGB who has shown for the last couple of years that he wears down if you play him too much. Kampman is a free agent who just asked for a contract similar to Vanden Bosch from Tennessee, 4 yr 21.5 M with 14 gaurenteed. As a Packer fan I always thought Kampman was underratted, but I would be appaled if they gave him that kind of deal. They need help at DE, and an improved pass rush may take some heat off of their young secondary.

I think they take Williams, and then Mangold if he is still there at the top of the second.

 

[Foosball God]

I'd be shocked if Detroit drafts Mario Williams. They already have Mario Williams, his name is Kalimba Edwards. OL, LB, DB are the three areas of need.

 

[On The Rocks]

Mario Williams to the Lions... I don't think he'll be there, but he would be a great value.

Something to watch will be how the Lions handle Kalimba Edwards. The new staff claimed he was their #1 priority entering the offseason, but apparently they have not made him an offer. If they blow him off, they might be thinking Williams could slip.

i agree...yeah, the Bills are desperate for OL help but I cannot see them passing on Mario Williams.

 

[psychobillies]

I still think that if Leinart were gone, the Saints would practically give the pick away instead of reaching that hard. BUT, if they can't trade it, I could see the top ten happening the way you have it. It would be a crazy day for sure though.

 

[MLBrandow]

I'd be shocked if Detroit drafts Mario Williams. They already have Mario Williams, his name is Kalimba Edwards. OL, LB, DB are the three areas of need.

I think you are the only one who shares this sentiment.

Mario Williams is an instant 10-15 sack threat. Kalimba Edwards might reach 10-sack potential throughout his career, but he seems destined to be no more than an adequate starter IMO.

I must admit, I am skeptical thatt the Jets will trade up when it would be much easier to trade down, as is conducive of the Belichick school of thought.

 

[Foosball God]

We'll see when the draft rolls around.

 

[Pnishthm]

Just looking for some more Homer Feedback here. I bit the trade bait here. With Houston moving to the 43, pairing John Abraham with Travis Johnson just sounds like pure evil.

I'm especially looking for any Raiders, Ravens, Bears, Panthers or Jaguar homers, because I haven't yet really studied too in-depth on their offseasons, (Ravens especially), and any in-depth analysis or insight you can provide would be especially helpful, as far as any players or positions you see them targeting, or other free agency moves, either in re-signing or letting go team players.

Thanks again, look forward to busting out another uber in-depth mock sometime in early March (looking at about the 2nd week right now).

Link to Last Mock + Others

1. NYJ Matt Leinart

Yes, I'm crazy and I think it will happen.

2. NO Jay Cutler

Cutler on the rise, Young on the fall. Payton is a pocket passer kinda guy. No way he wants Young over Cutler.

I got this far...

 

[MLBrandow]

Just looking for some more Homer Feedback here. I bit the trade bait here. With Houston moving to the 43, pairing John Abraham with Travis Johnson just sounds like pure evil.

I'm especially looking for any Raiders, Ravens, Bears, Panthers or Jaguar homers, because I haven't yet really studied too in-depth on their offseasons, (Ravens especially), and any in-depth analysis or insight you can provide would be especially helpful, as far as any players or positions you see them targeting, or other free agency moves, either in re-signing or letting go team players.

Thanks again, look forward to busting out another uber in-depth mock sometime in early March (looking at about the 2nd week right now).

Link to Last Mock + Others

1. NYJ Matt Leinart

Yes, I'm crazy and I think it will happen.

2. NO Jay Cutler

Cutler on the rise, Young on the fall. Payton is a pocket passer kinda guy. No way he wants Young over Cutler.

I got this far...

And I am greaftul for your very insightful commentary.

 

[MLBrandow]

Here's a response (with other quotes) from nfldraftcountdown.com, where I've also posted this little mock. Thought it might provide for some better debate here and there is some very good analysis from a couple guys over there.

the colts wont draft a corner back in the first round. they went corner first and second round last year with jackson and hayden. hayden was drafted more as a project and we will see him later and jackson will play more this year. As far as needs go with brackett and thorton up for free agency and the amazing depth at linebacker in the depth linebacker seems the most likely pick. a running back is not farfetched with the posibility of edge leaving and an offensive lineman isnt bad either but corner isnt too likely in the first.

I've been having a problem predicting anything with the Colts. I do believe Edge will be gone' date=' but you'd be hard-pressed to sell me on them drafting an RB replacement in the first-round.

At that, what would they target? They are going to have some real problems retaining their young players when they reach free agency because of the exorbitant contracts for Manning, Harrison and now Wayne.

I could see them targeting Ernie Sims to fill a potential FA hole, but other than that, how exactly is their line looking?

we won't get a RB in the first round. we would wait until the 3rd at the earliest. RB is not as big of a need now that Dunn is restructuring and Duckett being traded wouldn't make it a fgirst roudn pick anyway.

Yes it is, and that's exactly my point. Duckett is gone I agree, because he is not a fit in the system. Dunn playing for less money doesn't change the fact that he's due for a big decline very soon. What's Atlanta's offense going to look like without Dunn and Duckett? Absolute crap. I agree this pick is a big eyebrow raiser, but you have to admit it makes a lot of sense. Atlanta really doesn't have any glaring needs outside the secondary, and if Huff and Jimmy Williams are off the board, DeAngelo Williams is probably the BPA and will be able to step in and learn the system for a year or two while Dunn hopefully can last. If not, Williams can arguably step in right away and be 1,000 yard rusher in Dunn's absense.

Carolina has to look at WR BUT I don't think Santonio fits into the Carolina offense.  Steve Smith plays flanker (Z). That's the same spot Santonio would play.  Carolina is looking for a bigger' date=' more physical split end (X)(i.e. Muhammed).  Chad Jackson would of fit that role nicely.  Holmes is a talent and deserves a look I just feel he wouldn't have a spot where he would excel (just like Colbert excelled at Smith's spot but performed poorly played split end).  With the way Leonard Pope performed at the combine, he would have to be considered here.  A good blocker, good hands, great size, ran a 4.64.  Having someone like that would definatly help take the load off of Smith and may even open him up more.One other player that most don't think about is Ko Simpson.  McCree is a FA, Minter is a SS playing FS (although we run a lot of cover 2 so it's basically the same spot), Thomas Davis is moving to LB, Idrees Bashir is a FA and Branch is coming back from injury.  Carolina could use a ball hawking FS.  Most of the time when the secondary got beat deep it was because someone got behind Minter.  His legs are getting older and he can't run as fast as he used to be able to.  Simpson could come in and possibly start right off the bat (although he would have to earn it in training camp).

I hope this helps you out some.[/quote']

Thanks a lot for this info, didn't even think about XYZ clashes. I think you've sold me on them going Safety. I'd forgotten they drafted Davis to be a LB and was unaware of Bashir going into FA.

You obviously know nothing about Pittsburgh. Faneca and Simmons are both probowlers' date=' so why would we take this guy????[/quote']For some reason, I just see them drafting for their interior OL here. They could go FS or WR, but what guys do you see them targeting? It's hard to predict where a team will go that has both a solid defense and offense.

I'd like for them to draft another weapon for Roethlisberger, but who?

18.Dallas-Kam Wimbley-Here's another 34 OLB. Dallas should be on the move for a Linebacker after some departures this offseason in Dat Nguyen and Al Singleton. Could go ILB here' date=' but LB is likely to be the pick.[/quote']

Could go ILB but LB is the pick????/ that's crazy. Kam Wimbley has mid 2nd round value not mid 1st. YOu mention Singeleton and Nguyen, those two guys were ILB. This is a nasty pick right here. Someone like Ko SImpson or MArcus Mcneill or Winston Justice or Even Gabe WAtson would be a better pick here

Should have read OLB, my bad. I think you could sell me on the Cowboys hooking Ko Simpson or Darnell Bing, but I don't see them drafting an ILB at 19, when one of the top 3 is sure to be there when they pick again in the 2nd. As for OLB, it seems to me the biggest impact they can get is pairing Ware with another monstrous pass-rushing OLB. I think you'll agree that Fujita really has been a band-aid on the position

 

[C & C]

32. PIT Charles Spencer

Another team with no glaring needs. This pick will depend heavily on how their free agency goes.

I like this kid, but I don't see them spending a first round pick on a guard (unless you feel they could move him to center.) I think they see Kemoeatu as a future starter and have time to groom him behind Kendall Simmons. They could use depth at guard. I just can't see them addressing it in the first round.He's most likely come up in discussion on your other mocks, but Mangold could be a likely target. Hartings has one year left and I don't feel they believe Chucky Okobi is a starter in the league. The Steeler off-season thread has some discussion on this.

A free safety like Ko Simpson would be very nice, but he'll likely be gone. No other safeties likely to be available deserve the selection here.

If Keisel goes, and it looks like it's 50/50, then DE becomes a priority. I'm not sure which of the DT or DE prospects fit best at end in their 3-4 scheme. Bunkley is the only one I know for sure, and once again he'll be gone.

So, I'd be interested in hearing your take on which FS or DE/DT might be worthy of this selection and fit into the Steeler needs.

If no Mangold, FS or DE, then I think they look LB, and possibly WR (once again not sure the right prospect will be there). If they get to this point and haven't found the guy, then it's best OT on the board.

I purposely left out RB, as I believe they'll try to address that in rounds 2 or 3.

So, you're right, lots of options and alot depends on Keisel.

BTW, I enjoy reading your mocks. Keep up the good work.

 

[MLBrandow]

A free safety like Ko Simpson would be very nice, but he'll likely be gone. No other safeties likely to be available deserve the selection here.

If Keisel goes, and it looks like it's 50/50, then DE becomes a priority. I'm not sure which of the DT or DE prospects fit best at end in their 3-4 scheme. Bunkley is the only one I know for sure, and once again he'll be gone.

*edited for clarityI looked at DE to PIT briefly, but didn't really give it much consideration, because I hadn't really studied it with any detail or heard much about it.

Honestly, I can see a reach on Greg Blue or Pat Watkins, but it would be quite a reach for FS.... it wouldn't shock me, but it would surprise me.

Some people have cooled on Claude Wroten a lot, but I am in the group that shares the sentiment that he can come out in a few years as being better than Marcus Spears. He'd look great in a Steeler uniform at no.32 IMO.

 

[Captain Blowhard]

Lion beat writer Tom Kowalski claims the Jets will trade with the Texans and take Cutler #1 overall.

I'd love Mario at 9 for the Lions, but I doubt he's there. I think Huff has a good chance of being a Lion.

 

[Spartans Rule]

I'd be shocked if Detroit drafts Mario Williams. They already have Mario Williams, his name is Kalimba Edwards. OL, LB, DB are the three areas of need.

First of all, Edwards is an unrestricted free agent, so the Lions don't really have him at this point.Also, Edwards is 6'6, 265 compared to Williams' 6'7, 295. Edwards is a pass-rush specialist who isn't going to play run downs. Williams is a monster.

If Williams is there, he's a no-brainer for Detroit. He just isn't likely to be there.

 

[MLBrandow]

I'd be shocked if Detroit drafts Mario Williams.  They already have Mario Williams, his name is Kalimba Edwards.  OL, LB, DB are the three areas of need.

First of all, Edwards is an unrestricted free agent, so the Lions don't really have him at this point.Also, Edwards is 6'6, 265 compared to Williams' 6'7, 295. Edwards is a pass-rush specialist who isn't going to play run downs. Williams is a monster.

If Williams is there, he's a no-brainer for Detroit. He just isn't likely to be there.

 

[Vikes Fan]

Did I miss Maroney's name? Or do you have him falling out of the first round?

Maybe it is just too late for me!

 

[MLBrandow]

Did I miss Maroney's name?  Or do you have him falling out of the first round?

Maybe it is just too late for me! 

Yes, I do. I don't like him. McNeill is also missing, as is Jean-Gilles (guys most people have as first-rounders).

 

[Cowboys#1]

im on the McNeil bandwagon

id love for the Cowboys to take him.

 

[Foosball God]

I'd be shocked if Detroit drafts Mario Williams.  They already have Mario Williams, his name is Kalimba Edwards.  OL, LB, DB are the three areas of need.

First of all, Edwards is an unrestricted free agent, so the Lions don't really have him at this point.Also, Edwards is 6'6, 265 compared to Williams' 6'7, 295. Edwards is a pass-rush specialist who isn't going to play run downs. Williams is a monster.

If Williams is there, he's a no-brainer for Detroit. He just isn't likely to be there.

They have him if they want him and could focus on another glaring need. Williams is more of a pass rush guy and has some POA issues. I just see them going for more need positions than DE.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Did I miss Maroney's name? Or do you have him falling out of the first round?

Maybe it is just too late for me!

Yes, I do. I don't like him. McNeill is also missing, as is Jean-Gilles (guys most people have as first-rounders).

It is almost impossible to mock the first, I feel for you ML. I see about 20 truly elite talents, and then 40 or so real nice players. Its very hard to decide which 12 of the 40 to include in the first, and every time i finish, I leave out 3 or 4 guys I really think should be in the first. Bottom Line is that there is going to be some nice value in the 2nd this year.

 

[MLBrandow]

Did I miss Maroney's name?  Or do you have him falling out of the first round?

Maybe it is just too late for me! 

Yes, I do. I don't like him. McNeill is also missing, as is Jean-Gilles (guys most people have as first-rounders).

It is almost impossible to mock the first, I feel for you ML. I see about 20 truly elite talents, and then 40 or so real nice players. Its very hard to decide which 12 of the 40 to include in the first, and every time i finish, I leave out 3 or 4 guys I really think should be in the first. Bottom Line is that there is going to be some nice value in the 2nd this year.

In the end, I think there's going to be 32 guys worthy of a 1st round pick.

 

[salmonstud]

Interesting mock and most picks are plausible. I don't see S.Moss being selected ahea of S.Holmes at the WR position though. That is one heck of a stretch.

 

[MLBrandow]

Interesting mock and most picks are plausible. I don't see S.Moss being selected ahea of S.Holmes at the WR position though. That is one heck of a stretch.

Not after the combine, but I'll agree it still is. At that, if the value was that clear, I would imagine the Bucs trade down to still land Moss, because that's who I believe they want head and shoulders above anyone else that would be available to them.

 

[ChampBailey24]

Only thing I can find is : No way Mario Williams will still be available for the Lions.

 

[Capella]

Hey, you stole that Moss to Tampa thing from me.

 

[MLBrandow]

Hey, you stole that Moss to Tampa thing from me.

I don't think so, but I suppose you could have. I've been on the Moss bandwagon since shortly after my first mock. It just makes so much sense and nobody other than me is advocating it, so it must be right!That you agree with me, or that you may have coined the pick to begin with, only strengthens my belief that that's where he'll end up .

I looked a few threads over to see if what you claim is indeed true, but I am pretty sure that I just decided it when looking over at scott wright's prospect evalutions over at nfldraftcoundown.com (mad props to the man for giving away gold).

It is quite possible that the two of us just came to the same conclusion independently.

In either case, here's to Moss and Clayton for the next decade!