Optimal Draft Strategy (1 Viewer)

[Modog814]

Very interesting indeed. What do you do for a living? haha.

Went to school for physics but I'm trying to get a job as an actuary.

Judging by the content of this thread, you'll fit right in with us.My initial thoughts are in line with moleculo that I don't think linear is a good measure. Like he said, the difference between the top RB and the 5th RB isn't the same as the difference between the 24th RB and the 29th RB.

 

[Modog814]

Using Historic Points by ADP1: 13311022: 13312013: 13131204: 13112035: 13130216: 11330217: 13130218: 11332019: 111302310:113320111:113302112:1133021

so this indicates that, historically speaking, the first 17 picks should be RB's? I'm not sure I buy that.

Yeah, I agree. Although I don't think it's technically saying that. It's saying GIVEN that players are being drafted (ahead and behind you) at their respective ADP, then you're first pick should be a RB and your 2nd pick (if you draft in slots 8-12) should also be a running back. Now, that I think about it, I think this is an interesting exercise, but I really question it's applicibility. What I mean is, say the top 12 picks by ADP are:Foster, Rice, McCoy, Rodgers, Mathews, Calvin, Chris Johnson, Brady, McFadden, MJD, Graham and Gronk. (BTW totally making that up) This exercise produces the optimal order as long as ADP is being followed. But how much does it change once someone picks out of ADP order? What if all my leaguemates find this thread and the first 11 picks are RB's. I'm sitting at 12, no way am I taking a RB when I can grab Rodgers/Calvin. imo, as is, it's too static to be of any major use.

 

[Bills_Fan11]

Despite all of this however, the thing that I most dislike about QB-TE is that is completely handcuffs you for the rest of the draft. I always try to keep myself in a position where I can take the best player available on the board. If you fill up QB and TE right away, it totally kills your flexibility. And that's what good drafting is all about in my opinion; you need to be able to take advantage of other owners' mistakes. To do that you need to keep your options open.

Most years I would agree with this wholeheartedly but the way the QB/TE tiers are structured this year, I'm not so sure. After doing a million mocks this year I just never find myself thinking "oh Witten/Vernon/Romo/Eli is awesome value here". This is mostly because Gresham/Gonzalez/Cook/Rivers/Ryan/Roethlisburger are always available much later and I guess I just don't feel like the latter group is much worse; or at least not worse enough to make up the difference between DeSean Jackson and Robert Meachum as my WR3 (I would much rather have DJax). Obviously anyone who thinks more of the former group and less of the latter is going to feel differently but for me, Vick is pretty much the only guy at either position I feel bad about passing on due to already having an elite QB/TE, and that's only when he slips to like the 5th round.