Over the Hill(is)... (1 Viewer)

[Shutout]

We saw the massive overall production last year.

We saw the diminshed production at the end.

We read the reports that there woud be more RBBC this year.

We saw Brandon Jackson come in and Hardesty come back.

We saw Brandon Jackson get hurt and Hardesty get set back.

So what's the range where Hillis really should be drafted this year? I've seen people still touting him top 10; I've seen people that want him as nothing more than a low end second RB.

What's the consensus: Is he top of the hill(is) again or over the Hill(is) in 2011?

 

[Menace]

I think Hillis is a great value. Yeah, he slowed down last year but that is b/c he was slightly overused. Sharing time with Hardesty combined with a better passing offense will keep him fresh and productive. He is a great #2 back with #1 upside.

 

[LawFitz]

Top of the Hillis and I missed out on him in order to get McFadden. Still okay with that, but wish I had both somehow.

 

[scrumptrulescent]

Top of the Hillis and I missed out on him in order to get McFadden. Still okay with that, but wish I had both somehow.

For me, after McFadden, I see little reason why not to take Hillis. And I'm talking about taking him ahead of Gore, S-Jax, and maybe even Turner and McCoy. Of course my league is weighted toward TD's so I think higher of Hillis than some others.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Fullback Prejudice...new term I learned from new staff member Rzrback-Steve, I think he's right and I think owners are are going to be hating life again watching this guy run everyone over. He looks even better in the preseason than he did last year. I'm not going to make the same mistake I did last year and dismiss this guy, too much good stuff in his favor including no back to share time with, no WRs, no dynamic TEs, he should rack up 50 receptions again, he's like Larry Csonka just bowling over folks.

Don't be a fool, and don't try and be right in 2011 to make up for being wrong in 2010. Accept the fact this guy is good and while he may have a shorter shelf life in the NFL, right now is not the time to worry about that. 2nd round steal, 3rd round would be armed robbery.

 

[Joe Summer]

Just out of curiosity, how many times has the following scenario unfolded:

1. late-round pick sits on some team's bench for a year or two.

2. player goes to another team and has a monster season.

3. player maintains high level of production for 2nd season with new team?

 

[PhantomJB]

I like Hillis alot this year but struggling with his fantasy playoff schedule...brutal.

Wk 13 - BAL

Wk 14 - @PIT

Wk 15 - AZ

Wk 16 - @BAL

 

[Chase Stuart]

Just out of curiosity, how many times has the following scenario unfolded:

1. late-round pick sits on some team's bench for a year or two.

2. player goes to another team and has a monster season.

3. player maintains high level of production for 2nd season with new team?

It's pretty common. Of course, having a monster season and then maintaining a high level of production the following year, regardless of your past, is still not really the norm.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Just out of curiosity, how many times has the following scenario unfolded:

1. late-round pick sits on some team's bench for a year or two.

2. player goes to another team and has a monster season.

3. player maintains high level of production for 2nd season with new team?

Priest

Turner

Marcus Allen

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I like Hillis alot this year but struggling with his fantasy playoff schedule...brutal.Wk 13 - BALWk 14 - @PITWk 15 - AZWk 16 - @BAL

What if he is top5-10 most of the year? You have to get there first no? The SP has been on top of the Ravens rushD and lately it hasn't been nearly as impressive as it was 5-10 years ago.

 

[Joe Summer]

Just out of curiosity, how many times has the following scenario unfolded:

1. late-round pick sits on some team's bench for a year or two.

2. player goes to another team and has a monster season.

3. player maintains high level of production for 2nd season with new team?

Priest

Turner

Marcus Allen

I guess Turner qualifies, but Holmes and Allen were both 1000-yard rushers before going to another team. I'm looking for guys who were permanent bench warmers for their previous team, then had breakout seasons for a new team.Anyway, it just seems like guys such as Hillis (unheralded players who have breakout seasons) rarely maintain a high level of production into their 2nd season with the new team.

And like Chase said, it's rare for ANY player to maintain a high level of production. So shouldn't we be wary of the breakout players with inferior pedigrees?

 

[T with T]

Hillis never got the chance to run but avg over 5 ypc in DEN, they were just to stupid to use him... I think Hillis is a great rb2 with rb1 upside

 

[Touchdown There]

So shouldn't we be wary of the breakout players with inferior pedigrees?

What you missed over in the Peyton Hillis thread is the realization that anyone that thinks Hillis has an "inferior pedigree" is going to miss out on one of the better draft values of 2011. The athleticism and wide ranging skill set of Hillis becomes obvious when you watch some Hillis tape.
[*]Fantastic pass protection

[*]Hands of glue

[*]4.55 speed

[*]Can jump over you

[*]Can run over you

[*]Can use a stiff-arm

[*]Hard worker

[*]No off-field issues

[*]Fan favorite

[*]Great run blocking o-line

If your playoffs are week 15 and 16 only, then Hillis' playoff schedule should not be a factor. He can still get you to a championship, even if week 16 is rough. I would only flinch a little in leagues with weeks 14-16 playoffs.

 

[CalBear]

I guess Turner qualifies, but Holmes and Allen were both 1000-yard rushers before going to another team. I'm looking for guys who were permanent bench warmers for their previous team, then had breakout seasons for a new team.

Well, why don't you name some, then?

Anyway, it just seems like guys such as Hillis (unheralded players who have breakout seasons) rarely maintain a high level of production into their 2nd season with the new team.

And like Chase said, it's rare for ANY player to maintain a high level of production. So shouldn't we be wary of the breakout players with inferior pedigrees?

Here is a partial list of 7+ round RBs who had breakout seasonsriest Holmes

Arian Foster

Terry Allen

Earnest Byner

Willie Parker

Jamal Anderson

Ryan Grant

Are you avoiding Foster because of his inferior pedigree?

 

[Otis]

Hawkish on Hardesty.

 

[Kwai Chang Caine]

Don't be a fool, and don't try and be right in 2011 to make up for being wrong in 2010. Accept the fact this guy is good and while he may have a shorter shelf life in the NFL, right now is not the time to worry about that. 2nd round steal, 3rd round would be armed robbery.

What do you call it if you got him in the 4th like I did yesterday?

 

[Hank Mardukas]

Don't be a fool, and don't try and be right in 2011 to make up for being wrong in 2010. Accept the fact this guy is good and while he may have a shorter shelf life in the NFL, right now is not the time to worry about that. 2nd round steal, 3rd round would be armed robbery.

What do you call it if you got him in the 4th like I did yesterday?

Ditto - 4.02 in a 10-team draft. Seeing Hillis sitting there still on the board, after I had already taken Vick, Turner, and VJax, just about had me falling out of my seat.

 

[ready5]

Just out of curiosity, how many times has the following scenario unfolded:

1. late-round pick sits on some team's bench for a year or two.

2. player goes to another team and has a monster season.

3. player maintains high level of production for 2nd season with new team?

PriestTurner

Marcus Allen

I guess Turner qualifies, but Holmes and Allen were both 1000-yard rushers before going to another team. I'm looking for guys who were permanent bench warmers for their previous team, then had breakout seasons for a new team.

hillis led his team in rushing as a rookie.

 

[Joe Summer]

I guess Turner qualifies, but Holmes and Allen were both 1000-yard rushers before going to another team. I'm looking for guys who were permanent bench warmers for their previous team, then had breakout seasons for a new team.

Well, why don't you name some, then?

Challenge accepted! I worked up a list of RBs from the last 10 seasons who were drafted in the 4th round or later, sat on the bench for at least a year, and then had a breakout season:James Allen (1120/2 in 2000) - 469/1 in 2001Michael Pittman (719/4 in 2000) - 846/5 in 2001Maurice Smith (760/5 in 2001) - 0/0 in 2002Stacey Mack (877/9 in 2001) - 436/9 in 2002Marcel Shipp (834/6 in 2002) - 830/0 in 2003Rudi Johnson (957/9 in 2003) - 1454/12 in 2004Troy Hambrick (972/5 in 2003) - 283/1 in 2004Lee Suggs (744/2 in 2004) - 15/0 in 2005Nick Goings (821/6 in 2004) - 133/0 in 2005Willie Parker (1202/4 in 2005) - 1494/13 in 2006Chester Taylor (1216/6 in 2006) - 844/7 in 2007Kenny Watson (763/7 in 2007) - 55/0 in 2008Earnest Graham (898/10 in 2007) - 563/4 in 2008Brandon Jacobs (1009/4 in 2007) - 1089/15 in 2008Derrick Ward (1025/2 in 2008) - 409/1 in 2009Michael Turner (1699/17 in 2008) - 871/10 in 2009Le'Ron McClain (902/10 in 2008) - 180/2 in 2009Fred Jackson (1062/2 in 2009) - 927/5 in 2010Jerome Harrison (862/5 in 2009) - 330/1 in 2010Ahmad Bradshaw (778/7 in 2009) - 1235/8 in 2010Granted, the list is a mish-mash. Some players are young backups thrust into starting roles due to injury. Other players are fullbacks doing temp duty. Only a few of them match what Peyton Hillis did (i.e., going from one team's bench to another team's starting lineup).Nonetheless, I don't think you can ignore the following facts:1. 15 out of 20 experienced declines the following season2. 10 of those 15 experienced declines of at least 50%Anyway, whatever. I'm sure that my totally non-scientific research will be shot down and ridiculed by the stat nerds and/or worried Hillis owners. Go ahead and call me crazy for not getting excited over a 7th round pick who had a 3.8 YPC with 0 TDs the last 5 games of 2010. I guess I'd rather take my chances with the waiver wire than spend a 2nd round fantasy pick on Hillis.

 

[Boom Switch]

I trust hillis about as far as i can spit, maybe im just racist...

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Don't be a fool, and don't try and be right in 2011 to make up for being wrong in 2010. Accept the fact this guy is good and while he may have a shorter shelf life in the NFL, right now is not the time to worry about that. 2nd round steal, 3rd round would be armed robbery.

What do you call it if you got him in the 4th like I did yesterday?

Ponzi CEO?

 

[Shutout]

Wow! The responses are full of the same info I have been kicking around all this time.

Such polarizing takes.

i'm a little surprised no one has really mentioned "past injuries" yet.

MOP-Great line about not trying to be right in 2011 to make up for being wrong in 2010. Mind if I borrow that? Its a great way to sum up a lot of how we sometimes react.

Joe Summer-Nice list and great food for thought. It really makes me think that, although it HAS happened, we are talking about a very low percentage of people that pop up from this path and then sustain productive seasons.

I'm leaning now towards a "relative" approach. While I still have my doubts on him, it WOULD be extremely hard to pass on him if I see him in the 3rd round or so. Kinda looking at it as a "very solid RB2 floor with some hope he surprises me".

 

[CalBear]

Granted, the list is a mish-mash. Some players are young backups thrust into starting roles due to injury. Other players are fullbacks doing temp duty. Only a few of them match what Peyton Hillis did (i.e., going from one team's bench to another team's starting lineup).Nonetheless, I don't think you can ignore the following facts:1. 15 out of 20 experienced declines the following season2. 10 of those 15 experienced declines of at least 50%

If you throw out the players who didn't have a starting role in year N+1, or those who got injured, you'll see that the bulk of people in Hillis' situation have continued to be successful.

 

[Clifford]

I was one of the loudest detractors last season and I am a believer now. I just didn't think he could keep it up, and I don't view his late season swoon as evidence I was right.

For anyone thinking of him anchoring their team, name = Peyton Hillside Stranglers

 

[Insein]

Of that Arkansas backfield of McFadden, Felix and Hillis, who'd have thought Peyton would be the one on the cover of Madden?

 

[amnesiac]

Hawkish on Hardesty.

how'd that work out for you last year with Jerome Harrison?

 

[Evilgrin 72]

I got him at 3.01 last night in a PPR league and at 3.4 Friday night in a TD-heavy non-PPR. I'm all in on Hillis.

 

[Joe Summer]

Granted, the list is a mish-mash. Some players are young backups thrust into starting roles due to injury. Other players are fullbacks doing temp duty. Only a few of them match what Peyton Hillis did (i.e., going from one team's bench to another team's starting lineup).Nonetheless, I don't think you can ignore the following facts:1. 15 out of 20 experienced declines the following season2. 10 of those 15 experienced declines of at least 50%

If you throw out the players who didn't have a starting role in year N+1, or those who got injured, you'll see that the bulk of people in Hillis' situation have continued to be successful.

Okay, I whittled the list down to players who remained starters after their breakout season:James Allen - stats declinedMichael Pittman - stats improvedMarcel Shipp - stats declinedRudi Johnson - stats improvedWillie Parker - stats improvedChester Taylor - stats declinedEarnest Graham - stats declinedBrandon Jacobs - stats improvedMichael Turner - stats declinedFred Jackson - stats declinedAhmad Bradshaw - stats improvedSo, that's 6 decliners and 5 improvers.Again, I concede that this is totally unscientific. And I realize that many of the guys on my list were simply outplayed by superior players (of which Cleveland, apparently, does not have). And few of the players had the kind of truly "breakout" season like Hillis did.Nonetheless......Hillis remains on my Do Not Draft list.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Granted, the list is a mish-mash. Some players are young backups thrust into starting roles due to injury. Other players are fullbacks doing temp duty. Only a few of them match what Peyton Hillis did (i.e., going from one team's bench to another team's starting lineup).Nonetheless, I don't think you can ignore the following facts:1. 15 out of 20 experienced declines the following season2. 10 of those 15 experienced declines of at least 50%

If you throw out the players who didn't have a starting role in year N+1, or those who got injured, you'll see that the bulk of people in Hillis' situation have continued to be successful.

Okay, I whittled the list down to players who remained starters after their breakout season:James Allen - stats declinedMichael Pittman - stats improvedMarcel Shipp - stats declinedRudi Johnson - stats improvedWillie Parker - stats improvedChester Taylor - stats declinedEarnest Graham - stats declinedBrandon Jacobs - stats improvedMichael Turner - stats declinedFred Jackson - stats declinedAhmad Bradshaw - stats improvedSo, that's 6 decliners and 5 improvers.Again, I concede that this is totally unscientific. And I realize that many of the guys on my list were simply outplayed by superior players (of which Cleveland, apparently, does not have). And few of the players had the kind of truly "breakout" season like Hillis did.Nonetheless......Hillis remains on my Do Not Draft list.

If Hillis has a 45.5% chance of improving on his numbers from last year, you realize he's a steal at the end of the first round, right? His stats could decline by 15% and still be a steal at his current ADP.

 

[xenon]

Over the Hill(is) and Far Away....great Led Zep song

 

[fridayfrenzy]

Just out of curiosity, how many times has the following scenario unfolded:

1. late-round pick sits on some team's bench for a year or two.

2. player goes to another team and has a monster season.

3. player maintains high level of production for 2nd season with new team?

Change #1 to being a UDFA and you have Arian Foster, yet he is a consensus top 5 RB

 

[Joe Summer]

Just out of curiosity, how many times has the following scenario unfolded:

1. late-round pick sits on some team's bench for a year or two.

2. player goes to another team and has a monster season.

3. player maintains high level of production for 2nd season with new team?

Change #1 to being a UDFA and you have Arian Foster, yet he is a consensus top 5 RB

Foster could certainly destroy the curve. Or he could falter and give up some carries to Ben Tate or Derrick Ward.

 

[shadyridr]

Just out of curiosity, how many times has the following scenario unfolded:

1. late-round pick sits on some team's bench for a year or two.

2. player goes to another team and has a monster season.

3. player maintains high level of production for 2nd season with new team?

Ahman Green, Priest Holmes

 

[Gr00vus]

Browns put Steinbach on IR, ending his season. That can't help the Browns running game.

 

[shadyridr]

Browns put Steinbach on IR, ending his season. That can't help the Browns running game.

Eric Steinbach is terrible and I thought he wasnt even a starter

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Just out of curiosity, how many times has the following scenario unfolded:

1. late-round pick sits on some team's bench for a year or two.

2. player goes to another team and has a monster season.

3. player maintains high level of production for 2nd season with new team?

Priest Holmes, Ahman Green and Ryan Grant are three players that come to mind right away.

 

[Sake-Bombers]

Go ahead and call me crazy for not getting excited over a 7th round pick who had a 3.8 YPC with 0 TDs the last 5 games of 2010. I guess I'd rather take my chances with the waiver wire than spend a 2nd round fantasy pick on Hillis.

If finish and draft spot are everything, you must be giddy over Tebow this year!

 

[xpiredcoupon]

Hillis in High School

just for s**ts and giggles

 

[Team ROFLCOPTERS]

If Hillis has a 45.5% chance of improving on his numbers from last year, you realize he's a steal at the end of the first round, right? His stats could decline by 15% and still be a steal at his current ADP.

Well said. It is truely that simple.

 

[Joe Summer]

 

[InmanRoshi]

Watching the game, Hardesty is in no way a threat/problem for Hillis owners. He provided nothing more than the occasional breather. What's a problem for Hillis owners is the Browns complete lack of anything resembling a vertical passing attack to keep safeties and linebackers honest. The Bengals were stacking the box with safeties and shooting the LBs through run gaps. The Browns, minus Steinbach, don't have as good of an OL this year and Hillis isn't sneaking up on anyone as the Browns sole offensive weapon. The best thing that could happen to Hillis is if McCoy had a couple of good games back to back.

 

[PlasmaDogPlasma]

The other thing that is a problem is that the Browns let FB Lawrence Vickers go because he didn't fit Shurmur's offense.

 

[InmanRoshi]

The other thing that is a problem is that the Browns let FB Lawrence Vickers go because he didn't fit Shurmur's offense.

Good point. In whole, the entire Browns offense looks like it's in transition. Shurmur wants to go to a more WCO based perimeter offense, with Mangini's old power offense pieces.

 

[butcher boy]

It's one week, it means nothing. Gore had a similar week against an equally bad opponent and no one's doubting his ability.

What's more telling is that Hillis seems to be the main guy in Cleveland which was probably the main question in the offseason.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I personally did the game recap this week and also watched the game again on NFL Rewind...there should be no gloating either way. The Browns had 6-7 penalties and had only run 8 offensive plays over 2-3 drives early in the game, no one could get in rhythm and Hillis is not going to do well when it's 2nd and 24. Once things settled down he was fine. He did have 13 carries midway thru the 3rd, ended up with 17 total but he had 6 receptions. In PPR leagues he posted 14-15 points, that's not going to win you games but it shouldn't automatically make you lose either.

Things will get better, he's the main weapon on offense.

 

[PizzaDeliveryGuy]

I watched the game again on NFL Rewind

You poor *******.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I watched the game again on NFL Rewind

You poor *******.

Actually it was pretty fun watching AJ Green flying around, Evan Moore getting a lot of targets, Colt McCoy on the run looking good, Dalton actually composed. It really wasn't a terrible game once Cleveland stopped making penalties every time they lined up.

 

[Stompin' Tom Connors]

I personally did the game recap this week and also watched the game again on NFL Rewind...there should be no gloating either way. The Browns had 6-7 penalties and had only run 8 offensive plays over 2-3 drives early in the game, no one could get in rhythm and Hillis is not going to do well when it's 2nd and 24. Once things settled down he was fine. He did have 13 carries midway thru the 3rd, ended up with 17 total but he had 6 receptions. In PPR leagues he posted 14-15 points, that's not going to win you games but it shouldn't automatically make you lose either. Things will get better, he's the main weapon on offense.

Awesome, MOP, thanks for the perspective.

 

[Shutout]

A little update today from brownie world has the HC stating that he wants to "reduce the workload" of Hillis going forward.

beginning of the decline or a good thing for the duration of the entire season?

 

[Clifford]

Probably a good thing. One thing worth noting is that the passing game has not been great thus far. As it improves so should Hillis's ypc. The offense isn't giving opposing defenses reason to try to stop anything other than Hillis and it shows.

As Little and Colt improve so will Hillis. To me this is more of the coach saying "we have to find another dimension to our offense" rather than "Hillis is wearing down/not performing"