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Over the Hill(is)... (1 Viewer)

Probably a good thing. One thing worth noting is that the passing game has not been great thus far. As it improves so should Hillis's ypc. The offense isn't giving opposing defenses reason to try to stop anything other than Hillis and it shows.As Little and Colt improve so will Hillis. To me this is more of the coach saying "we have to find another dimension to our offense" rather than "Hillis is wearing down/not performing"
Good perspective. I can buy that.
 
A little update today from brownie world has the HC stating that he wants to "reduce the workload" of Hillis going forward.beginning of the decline or a good thing for the duration of the entire season?
i'll go with "coach speak" for 200 alex
id call it more wishful thinking on the part of the coach. sure, hed like to not beat up his best player, but he kinda has to if he wants to win games. hillis had 31 touches out of 71 offensive plays.
 
don't drop him now, he's just getting warmed up!!

upcoming schedule:

1. Miami

2. Tenn

3. Oak

4. SF

5. Hou

6. St Louis

7. Jax

8. Cincy

with games against Miami, Oakland, Houston, St Louis, Jax and perhaps Tenn, you have an easy ride ahead..

if you feel he'll tire out like he did late last season, trade him after week 7 game against Jax, since his schedule after that is just plain brutal..( although, Ravens defense looks very suspect at the moment).

 
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A little update today from brownie world has the HC stating that he wants to "reduce the workload" of Hillis going forward.beginning of the decline or a good thing for the duration of the entire season?
i'll go with "coach speak" for 200 alex
id call it more wishful thinking on the part of the coach. sure, hed like to not beat up his best player, but he kinda has to if he wants to win games. hillis had 31 touches out of 71 offensive plays.
May also simply be that Hardesty is starting to heal to the point where he can spell Hillis a little more than he has so far. Not saying Hardesty is suddenly a threat to steal carries -- he has yet to earn that right -- but having Hardesty back at 100% just means he can be used a little more to spell Hillis.I have both Hillis and Hardesty, and was set to dump Hardesty on waivers for some WR depth. I'm not reconsidering this, but I do think as Hardesty comes along this year and proves he can compete at this level, I would expect to see him involved in the offense more.
 
Hillis is 9th overall in my PPR leagues, what are we discussing here? He is the entire Browns offense outside of an occasional look to the TE.

 
Reloaded this one so people can reflect on what was said last year and pontificate for the upcoming season.

We know the Chiefs are going to run a lot but is Hillis a guy that has something left for fantasy owners, considering he is RB2 on the team and his recent struggles?

 
Plenty of good recent discussion on Hillis if you use the search function.

He's going in the 7th - 9th round as a RB 3/4 according to recent ADP data. He's now on a team that has ranked 1st and 5th in the NFL in carries the last two years, and the starter is coming off of a major knee injury. He looks like a huge bargain to me at his current price.

 
Hard to say right now until the pads come on, but Hillis is going to be given every opportunity with (as mentioned) Charles coming back from a knee injury and Hillis' old DC Daboll serving the same role now in KC.

 
saw on rotoworld or something that KC has talked about 500 rushing attempts this year....if they approach that number Hillis should be very involved...I am a huge KC fan....and I know this may seem crazy...but I think Hillis could end up with more touches (piece of the rushing attempts pie + receptions) than Charles...factor in the possibility that he may get some goal line love and while Charles still may have good numbers, I wouldn't be surprised if Hillis is the more productive back week in and week out and ends up being the one you want to own of the two....especially at their ADP....

 
saw on rotoworld or something that KC has talked about 500 rushing attempts this year....if they approach that number Hillis should be very involved...I am a huge KC fan....and I know this may seem crazy...but I think Hillis could end up with more touches (piece of the rushing attempts pie + receptions) than Charles...factor in the possibility that he may get some goal line love and while Charles still may have good numbers, I wouldn't be surprised if Hillis is the more productive back week in and week out and ends up being the one you want to own of the two....especially at their ADP....
Don't think you're crazy at all. That's exactly my take on it. 500 team RB carries is reasonable assuming the backfield doesn't fall apart. 250 Hillis (including goal-line), 200 Charles (10 / game early, his pre-injury 15 / game late), 50 McCluster / other.IMO Hillis is at least even money to outscore Charles straight up over the year as whole; when you factor in the huge difference in ADP Hillis is a slam dunk value-wise.I worry more about players' effectiveness in the year immediately after a big injury than most. Charles and Peterson are still going in the borderline RB1 / RB2 range, which seems risky to me.
 
I like hillis a ton at his adp. he is my current target in round 7 as a RB3 but he could easily become a strong rb2 imo

 
Hillis' ADP likely to start rising soon. :kicksrock:
I'm having a hard time getting him in the 6th in 12 teamer mocks I've been doing, been tinkering with different strategies and what not. Unless you're at the beginning of that round, I don't think you see him on your roster. I am a believer in him as a solid flex RB3 this year with a ton of upside around that ADP. What's been working pretty well IMHO is is RB-RB-WR-WR-Hillis-QB to make sure you lock him up as your flex guy, and I like the teams I'm landing with that strategy with the extreme runs I've seen going on with RB, as is to be expected. Great value in PPR and like was said absolutely see him getting goal line opportunities with his size and Charles doing a good amount of the work in the 20's. I'd be quite comfortable with him as my RB3 heading into Week 1.
 
saw on rotoworld or something that KC has talked about 500 rushing attempts this year....if they approach that number Hillis should be very involved...I am a huge KC fan....and I know this may seem crazy...but I think Hillis could end up with more touches (piece of the rushing attempts pie + receptions) than Charles...factor in the possibility that he may get some goal line love and while Charles still may have good numbers, I wouldn't be surprised if Hillis is the more productive back week in and week out and ends up being the one you want to own of the two....especially at their ADP....
Don't think you're crazy at all. That's exactly my take on it. 500 team RB carries is reasonable assuming the backfield doesn't fall apart. 250 Hillis (including goal-line), 200 Charles (10 / game early, his pre-injury 15 / game late), 50 McCluster / other.IMO Hillis is at least even money to outscore Charles straight up over the year as whole; when you factor in the huge difference in ADP Hillis is a slam dunk value-wise.I worry more about players' effectiveness in the year immediately after a big injury than most. Charles and Peterson are still going in the borderline RB1 / RB2 range, which seems risky to me.
Agreed...especially when you consider that KC was already hesitant to use Charles a ton because they were concerned about injury...they are not now going to give him over 250 carries, and likely in that 180+ range...even if they only hit 400 attempts, you are looking at 180+ for Hillis and that I think will be the floor.
 
Hillis' ADP likely to start rising soon. :kicksrock:
Yeah, I'm guessing it will.I think he'll still provide ROI unless it absolutely skyrockets, though. I see his floor (if healthy) in the mid-RB2 range (1200 total, 30 catches, 8 - 9 TDs), and I'm happy with that in the 5th or so.
 
Do you guys think a team projected to win 5 games is going to be able to rush the ball 500 times?

Also.. if they ARE going to be running the ball, wouldn't it seem that the big play threat coming off of major reconstructive knee surgery and trying to regain explosiveness and cutting ability is going to see the most touches over the ground and pound back coming off relatively minor knee surgery who isn't that elusive anyway?

I guess I'm just bearish on the Cleveland running game altogether this year.... they will be playing from behind....a lot. Factor in being in the same division as the Ravens (2nd Ranked Rushing D), Steelers (8th) and Cincy (10th) and....well...
They play in Kansas City. And Hillis is behind Charles.ETA: which means they play in the AFC West. Just saying. Also: fixed in bold.

 
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Do you guys think a team projected to win 5 games is going to be able to rush the ball 500 times?

Also.. if they ARE going to be running the ball, wouldn't it seem that the big play threat coming off of major reconstructive knee surgery and trying to regain explosiveness and cutting ability is going to see the most touches over the ground and pound back coming off relatively minor knee surgery who isn't that elusive anyway?

I guess I'm just bearish on the Cleveland running game altogether this year.... they will be playing from behind....a lot. Factor in being in the same division as the Ravens (2nd Ranked Rushing D), Steelers (8th) and Cincy (10th) and....well...
They play in Kansas City. And Hillis is behind Charles.ETA: which means they play in the AFC West. Just saying. Also: fixed in bold.
Forget it - he's rolling.
 
Jesus christ a couple beers at lunch and I go "full #######" :lmao:

Senior moment... what the hell was going on in my head. :lmao: :bag:

Carry on.

 
Hillis' ADP likely to start rising soon. :kicksrock:
Yeah, I'm guessing it will.I think he'll still provide ROI unless it absolutely skyrockets, though. I see his floor (if healthy) in the mid-RB2 range (1200 total, 30 catches, 8 - 9 TDs), and I'm happy with that in the 5th or so.
Still going early 7th (7.2) in PPR mocks at FFC. I think he'll start being taken over some of the backs in front of him, but the value at WR along with second tier TEs and QBs available in that area shouldn't let him creep up too high.I was hoping to get him in the 7th, but it looks like it will have to be the 6th. The 5th is too early for my taste.
 
'Coeur de Lion said:
'Stinkin Ref said:
saw on rotoworld or something that KC has talked about 500 rushing attempts this year....if they approach that number Hillis should be very involved...I am a huge KC fan....and I know this may seem crazy...but I think Hillis could end up with more touches (piece of the rushing attempts pie + receptions) than Charles...factor in the possibility that he may get some goal line love and while Charles still may have good numbers, I wouldn't be surprised if Hillis is the more productive back week in and week out and ends up being the one you want to own of the two....especially at their ADP....
Don't think you're crazy at all. That's exactly my take on it. 500 team RB carries is reasonable assuming the backfield doesn't fall apart. 250 Hillis (including goal-line), 200 Charles (10 / game early, his pre-injury 15 / game late), 50 McCluster / other.IMO Hillis is at least even money to outscore Charles straight up over the year as whole; when you factor in the huge difference in ADP Hillis is a slam dunk value-wise.I worry more about players' effectiveness in the year immediately after a big injury than most. Charles and Peterson are still going in the borderline RB1 / RB2 range, which seems risky to me.
Couldn't agree more with you guys on this assessment of value... and if you don't mind i will be quoting you both in the "Ideal #2 RB" post hah
 
With all do respect gentlemen, let's not get too ahead of our selves here.

Hillis had one 100+ yard game last year then, for the entire season, a total of 3 TD's, and averaged 3.6 yards on 161 carries. I understand that he was hurt and playing in the AFC North is a lot tougher then the West but he was also the best RB on the team and expected to be a feature back.

With Charles coming back from an early season injury I can't see Hillis being much more then a spell back and insurance policy if Charles doesn't come back in time or gets hurt.

I don't see Hillis having much value until the 10th or later unless I have Charles or hear that he had a setback with his knee.

 
'Coeur de Lion said:
'Stinkin Ref said:
saw on rotoworld or something that KC has talked about 500 rushing attempts this year....if they approach that number Hillis should be very involved...I am a huge KC fan....and I know this may seem crazy...but I think Hillis could end up with more touches (piece of the rushing attempts pie + receptions) than Charles...factor in the possibility that he may get some goal line love and while Charles still may have good numbers, I wouldn't be surprised if Hillis is the more productive back week in and week out and ends up being the one you want to own of the two....especially at their ADP....
Don't think you're crazy at all. That's exactly my take on it. 500 team RB carries is reasonable assuming the backfield doesn't fall apart. 250 Hillis (including goal-line), 200 Charles (10 / game early, his pre-injury 15 / game late), 50 McCluster / other.IMO Hillis is at least even money to outscore Charles straight up over the year as whole; when you factor in the huge difference in ADP Hillis is a slam dunk value-wise.I worry more about players' effectiveness in the year immediately after a big injury than most. Charles and Peterson are still going in the borderline RB1 / RB2 range, which seems risky to me.
Couldn't agree more with you guys on this assessment of value... and if you don't mind i will be quoting you both in the "Ideal #2 RB" post hah
Question to you guys based on what you're saying:If you expect so much from Hilis, Then why is Charles being pretty much universally ranked as a top 10, RB1? That doesn't sound like any of the forecasters expect this kind of scenario where the team "worries" about easing charles in or the injury or anything. Why is there NO mention of all the shannanigans that went on with Hillis last year? Usually when a player is accused of dogging it or not playing when he could have or, in general, basiaclly plays like a shell of what he did the year before, people are ALL over that. And if its due to citing injuries, people usually toss out the "injury prone" label. And Hillis has had his share of missed time. Actually, him playing most games is the exception for him, not the norm.Are we completely overlooking Cyrus Gray? NO ONE mentions him, not even in the cleanup role. I find that odd. Young, unknown RBs tend to pop up here and there and you would think a rookie RB might be enticing to people expecting a team to run 500+ times.
 
My optimism for Hillis is stemming from his familiarity with the system, the OC, his skillset, the upgrade in talent around him, and the expectation that the Chiefs are going to be a severely run heavy team.

Jamaal Charles isn't going to dominate the carries for this team. I can see 250 total touches being his maximum in 2012. The player KC brought in to be "the other guy" is Hillis, and with the Chiefs talking 500 total carries I can see Hillis closer to 275 touches. His per touch numbers won't be as high as Charles', but the work Hillis should receive inside the 10 will make him the more valuable fantasy player.

JC is severely overvalued. Hillis is severely undervalued. If Hillis' ADP stays late 6th early 7th he's a major steal.

ETA: It's just an extremely positive sign for the Chiefs to sign Brian DaBoll to be their offensive coordinator, and then they go out and specifically target Peyton Hillis in free agency.

 
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IMO there's plenty of room for two solid fantasy RBs in KC. In 2010, Charles and Thomas Jones combined for 534 touches. In 2011, despite the entire RB group falling apart (Jackie Battle anyone?) they were 5th in the NFL in rushing attempts.

In order for Hillis to underperform, given his RB30+ price, one or more of the following must happen:

A.) in the first year back from a major injury, Charles sees a new usage pattern and sets a career high in touches.

B.) Charles gets the goal-line work for the first time in his career, despite being paired with the best power-RB competition for those touches that he's ever faced.

C.) Hillis loses significant amounts of inside touches to a 180 pound gadget / return guy (McCluster) or one of the various other unknowns in the KC backfield.

I love Charles and am all in on him in my dynasty leagues; traded up to get him as a rookie, just took him in another startup this offseason, etc. He is the all-time leader in career YPC at RB and a top-5 talent, but for 2012 redrafts, he's going too high for a guy coming off of a major knee injury IMO. I don't think he's an awful pick or anything, I'm just fairly risk-averse that early, so I probably won't be taking him.

 
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I haven't posted in this thread yet because I feel like my fantasy football crush on Hillis in 2012 is pretty well documented, but I'll jump in on a couple replies here...

With all do respect gentlemen, let's not get too ahead of our selves here.

Hillis had one 100+ yard game last year then, for the entire season, a total of 3 TD's, and averaged 3.6 yards on 161 carries. I understand that he was hurt and playing in the AFC North is a lot tougher then the West but he was also the best RB on the team and expected to be a feature back.

With Charles coming back from an early season injury I can't see Hillis being much more then a spell back and insurance policy if Charles doesn't come back in time or gets hurt.

I don't see Hillis having much value until the 10th or later unless I have Charles or hear that he had a setback with his knee.
Do you understand this? Because his quad injury was verified. It is very difficult for players to play through an injured knee which is just a joint, but when the actual muscle that moves the joint is injured then it is no longer about playing through pain. The same level of play simply cannot be achieved.
Question to you guys based on what you're saying:

If you expect so much from Hilis, Then why is Charles being pretty much universally ranked as a top 10, RB1? That doesn't sound like any of the forecasters expect this kind of scenario where the team "worries" about easing charles in or the injury or anything.

Why is there NO mention of all the shannanigans that went on with Hillis last year? Usually when a player is accused of dogging it or not playing when he could have or, in general, basiaclly plays like a shell of what he did the year before, people are ALL over that. And if its due to citing injuries, people usually toss out the "injury prone" label. And Hillis has had his share of missed time. Actually, him playing most games is the exception for him, not the norm.

Are we completely overlooking Cyrus Gray? NO ONE mentions him, not even in the cleanup role. I find that odd. Young, unknown RBs tend to pop up here and there and you would think a rookie RB might be enticing to people expecting a team to run 500+ times.
Charles is being ranked in the top 10 because people are chumps. The guy does have 1.5 seasons worth of elite play so it is easy to see where the bandwagon comes from, but he's coming off a big injury (which others have recovered from, but the risks of slow recovery are often overlooked these days), and the other guy in the backfield was a complete bada55 with the current OC. The good news is that Charles could still get 250 touches in this offense so this is less about people overvaluing Charles (which I still think they are given the injury) and more about people undervaluing Hillis. If they both get 250 touches then they can both be RB2 or better fantasy plays. Hillis will need double digit TDs and Charles will need 6 ypc, but it is possible. Where we stand right now, Hillis appears to be the bargain.Why is he a bargain? Just like you said, people here may not be talking about it, but the general public thinks much like you and Borden. They perceive him to have been a quitter last year who couldn't hit a hole or break a tackle to save his life. That team was imploding and Hillis was injured, but this is very overlooked and people like me aren't going to draft him in the 3rd round when I know I can wait until the 6th, so we're not going to bump his ADP up much.

I don't know where you get the part about Hillis being injury prone. Until 2010 he was never a lead back. And personally, for long term health/production implications, I'd rather a guy have a torn quad last year than a torn ACL. I also don't see the point in talking about Gray and that is coming from an A&M guy. Mike Sherman ran a very good offense at A&M and Gray benefitted from it, but I never even felt like he was the best back on the team. Michael was the starter in 2010 until he tore his ACL so Gray became the starter, but Michael was the better runner between the tackles. From watching Gray, I don't think he's a threat to either guy, but if he was a threat it would be to Charles, not Hillis.

 
I haven't posted in this thread yet because I feel like my fantasy football crush on Hillis in 2012 is pretty well documented, but I'll jump in on a couple replies here...

With all do respect gentlemen, let's not get too ahead of our selves here.

Hillis had one 100+ yard game last year then, for the entire season, a total of 3 TD's, and averaged 3.6 yards on 161 carries. I understand that he was hurt and playing in the AFC North is a lot tougher then the West but he was also the best RB on the team and expected to be a feature back.

With Charles coming back from an early season injury I can't see Hillis being much more then a spell back and insurance policy if Charles doesn't come back in time or gets hurt.

I don't see Hillis having much value until the 10th or later unless I have Charles or hear that he had a setback with his knee.
Do you understand this? Because his quad injury was verified. It is very difficult for players to play through an injured knee which is just a joint, but when the actual muscle that moves the joint is injured then it is no longer about playing through pain. The same level of play simply cannot be achieved.
Question to you guys based on what you're saying:

If you expect so much from Hilis, Then why is Charles being pretty much universally ranked as a top 10, RB1? That doesn't sound like any of the forecasters expect this kind of scenario where the team "worries" about easing charles in or the injury or anything.

Why is there NO mention of all the shannanigans that went on with Hillis last year? Usually when a player is accused of dogging it or not playing when he could have or, in general, basiaclly plays like a shell of what he did the year before, people are ALL over that. And if its due to citing injuries, people usually toss out the "injury prone" label. And Hillis has had his share of missed time. Actually, him playing most games is the exception for him, not the norm.

Are we completely overlooking Cyrus Gray? NO ONE mentions him, not even in the cleanup role. I find that odd. Young, unknown RBs tend to pop up here and there and you would think a rookie RB might be enticing to people expecting a team to run 500+ times.
Charles is being ranked in the top 10 because people are chumps. The guy does have 1.5 seasons worth of elite play so it is easy to see where the bandwagon comes from, but he's coming off a big injury (which others have recovered from, but the risks of slow recovery are often overlooked these days), and the other guy in the backfield was a complete bada55 with the current OC. The good news is that Charles could still get 250 touches in this offense so this is less about people overvaluing Charles (which I still think they are given the injury) and more about people undervaluing Hillis. If they both get 250 touches then they can both be RB2 or better fantasy plays. Hillis will need double digit TDs and Charles will need 6 ypc, but it is possible. Where we stand right now, Hillis appears to be the bargain.Why is he a bargain? Just like you said, people here may not be talking about it, but the general public thinks much like you and Borden. They perceive him to have been a quitter last year who couldn't hit a hole or break a tackle to save his life. That team was imploding and Hillis was injured, but this is very overlooked and people like me aren't going to draft him in the 3rd round when I know I can wait until the 6th, so we're not going to bump his ADP up much.

I don't know where you get the part about Hillis being injury prone. Until 2010 he was never a lead back. And personally, for long term health/production implications, I'd rather a guy have a torn quad last year than a torn ACL. I also don't see the point in talking about Gray and that is coming from an A&M guy. Mike Sherman ran a very good offense at A&M and Gray benefitted from it, but I never even felt like he was the best back on the team. Michael was the starter in 2010 until he tore his ACL so Gray became the starter, but Michael was the better runner between the tackles. From watching Gray, I don't think he's a threat to either guy, but if he was a threat it would be to Charles, not Hillis.
I guess you certainly DO have some opinions on Hillis :) 1st bolded-I never said I shared the opinion. Honestly, I completely ignored Hillis last year and all I can speak of is I know the fact that in November, you couldn't read about the Borwns wthout sifting through multiple reports of him choosing not to play on advice of his agent, faking or extending a flu, etc. So, the reports are real and the info is real and the source often cited was displeasure in a long-term contract so since he didn't get the HUGE contract in KC, I'm just asking if those are things that still need to be considered. If the man was hurt as bad as you opine, then why did the team not IR him like most teams do when a player is injured that significantly (again, just questions, not trying to attack..I don't know..but I see the guys I do follow, when they get hurt, I don't notice al the controversy like we did with Hillis)?

-2nd bolded: I guess I got it from the fact that he has played 31 games in 4 years; 50% pretty much. Usually when a guy misses time every year at some point, people tend to voice a concern of durability. the fact that he WASN'T a full time lead back works against him as much as for him if you want to put it into perspective of "you mean he's a part time palayer and still missed half the games? So he's really like a 1/4 player then?"

-3rd bolded: I always will defer to the locals who watched guys extensively. You might be correct about Cyrus Gray. I just asked because A LOT of people miss the boat on these guys that come out of nowhere. I remember clearly how a lot of people described Clinton Portis and Ray Rice as COP backs coming out. They said MJD wasn't a lead back. It happens ALL the time.

 
My bad. I guess I shouldn't have assumed that was your opinion. Anyway, the reports were real, but the info wasn't true. I recall the team did MRI his leg and confirmed the injury so whether his agent told him to not play thru the injury or not, he was legitimately injured and it impaired his ability but in the end he did try to play. But honestly, why should he have played through that? The team was doomed and the injury rendered him ineffective, so how would he have helped himself or the team? The whole thing was blown out of proportion and twisted for no good reason. But I can't complain. Just makes him all the more easy to land this year.

As for the missed games, did he really miss games as a Bronco or did he simply not get his number called? And how did he fare in Arkansas? I haven't done that kind of research on him.

Well, Gray was a 6th round draft pick. Sometimes those guys do catch us by surprise, but not usually as rookies. I don't put a lot of (or any) value on locals' eyeball tests so I encourage you to take mine with a grain of salt at best, but looking at the situation I think anyone should be comfortable expecting Gray to play no part in Hillis' touches/use in 2012.

 
My bad. I guess I shouldn't have assumed that was your opinion. Anyway, the reports were real, but the info wasn't true. I recall the team did MRI his leg and confirmed the injury so whether his agent told him to not play thru the injury or not, he was legitimately injured and it impaired his ability but in the end he did try to play. But honestly, why should he have played through that? The team was doomed and the injury rendered him ineffective, so how would he have helped himself or the team? The whole thing was blown out of proportion and twisted for no good reason. But I can't complain. Just makes him all the more easy to land this year.As for the missed games, did he really miss games as a Bronco or did he simply not get his number called? And how did he fare in Arkansas? I haven't done that kind of research on him.Well, Gray was a 6th round draft pick. Sometimes those guys do catch us by surprise, but not usually as rookies. I don't put a lot of (or any) value on locals' eyeball tests so I encourage you to take mine with a grain of salt at best, but looking at the situation I think anyone should be comfortable expecting Gray to play no part in Hillis' touches/use in 2012.
He missed games in Denver after a broken leg, I believe. Not exactly a chronic issue.
 
As a Browns fan that was burned badly by Hillis in 2011 I write this with as much objectivity as possible. He is not worth a top 100 pick. It's that time of year when coaches talk about how they want to be more committed to the run, this doesn't always hold true once the games starts - it usually doesn't. Now, I think the Chiefs are built to run it with 2 talented backs, a nice o line, solid defense, and poor QB play so maybe they can hold up to their word. If they can get to 500 rushing attempts and Hillis is on the 40% end of the committee that equates to only about 12 carries per game. Yes, things will change due to injury and ineffectiveness, but this is their plan as of right now. You cannot draft a 12 touch/game RB in the top 100. You're leaving a starting QB, TE, or quality WR3 on the board to get your committee back. There will be A LOT of committee backs available later, all expected to receive a similar workload. The drop off isn't that steep. There will also be waiver wire backs available in-season that will get more carries in a given week than Hillis, so if you're squeezed for a back options will be there.

Basically, the only way Hillis justifies a pick at his current ADP is if he removes his head from his ### after last year's disaster (probable), the Chiefs are on pace for 500 carries (possible), AND Charles gets hurt/sucks (unlikely). Similar to Ben Tate, there are better options available at this price.

 
As a Browns fan that was burned badly by Hillis in 2011 I write this with as much objectivity as possible. He is not worth a top 100 pick. It's that time of year when coaches talk about how they want to be more committed to the run, this doesn't always hold true once the games starts - it usually doesn't. Now, I think the Chiefs are built to run it with 2 talented backs, a nice o line, solid

defense, and poor QB play so maybe they can hold up to their word. If they can get to 500 rushing attempts and Hillis is on the 40% end of the committee that equates to only about 12 carries per game. Yes, things will change due to injury and ineffectiveness, but this is their plan as of right now. You cannot draft a 12 touch/game RB in the top 100.You're leaving a starting QB, TE, or quality WR3 on the board to get your committee back. There will be A LOT of committee backs available later, all expected to receive a similar workload. The drop off isn't that steep. There will also be waiver wire backs available in-season

that will get more carries in a given week than Hillis, so if you're squeezed for a back options will be there.

Basically, the only way Hillis justifies a pick at his current ADP is if he removes his head from his ### after last year's disaster (probable), the Chiefs are on pace for 500 carries (possible), AND Charles gets hurt/sucks (unlikely). Similar to Ben Tate, there are better options available at this price.
1000 total yards and 6-7 TDs puts a RB in the mid to late 20s at the position, which is easily worth a top-100 pick. Even at 40% of the work (200 carries, 25ish catches) Hillis will hit those numbers.Ben Tate gets 7 carries / game with Foster healthy, and doesn't catch the ball or get red zone touches.

 
As a Browns fan that was burned badly by Hillis in 2011 I write this with as much objectivity as possible. He is not worth a top 100 pick. It's that time of year when coaches talk about how they want to be more committed to the run, this doesn't always hold true once the games starts - it usually doesn't. Now, I think the Chiefs are built to run it with 2 talented backs, a nice o line, solid

defense, and poor QB play so maybe they can hold up to their word. If they can get to 500 rushing attempts and Hillis is on the 40% end of the committee that equates to only about 12 carries per game. Yes, things will change due to injury and ineffectiveness, but this is their plan as of right now. You cannot draft a 12 touch/game RB in the top 100.You're leaving a starting QB, TE, or quality WR3 on the board to get your committee back. There will be A LOT of committee backs available later, all expected to receive a similar workload. The drop off isn't that steep. There will also be waiver wire backs available in-season

that will get more carries in a given week than Hillis, so if you're squeezed for a back options will be there.

Basically, the only way Hillis justifies a pick at his current ADP is if he removes his head from his ### after last year's disaster (probable), the Chiefs are on pace for 500 carries (possible), AND Charles gets hurt/sucks (unlikely). Similar to Ben Tate, there are better options available at this price.
1000 total yards and 6-7 TDs puts a RB in the mid to late 20s at the position, which is easily worth a top-100 pick. Even at 40% of the work (200 carries, 25ish catches) Hillis will hit those numbers.Ben Tate gets 7 carries / game with Foster healthy, and doesn't catch the ball or get red zone touches.
I think you're making a mistake by looking at this from an end-game perspective instead of week-to-week. Mike Tolbert owners in 2011 will attest, he was an adequate fill-in but he was never someone you felt good about starting. That's essentially what Hillis' role will be in 2012. Some passing situations, goal line, and change of pace carries.I'd rather rely on that week's Ogbonnaya, Bernard Scott, Kevin Smith, etc. if I'm in a pinch for a starter instead of addressing another starter than use an early(er) draft pick and sit on Hillis and hope I don't have to use him outside of bye weeks.

 
I haven't posted in this thread yet because I feel like my fantasy football crush on Hillis in 2012 is pretty well documented, but I'll jump in on a couple replies here...

With all do respect gentlemen, let's not get too ahead of our selves here.

Hillis had one 100+ yard game last year then, for the entire season, a total of 3 TD's, and averaged 3.6 yards on 161 carries. I understand that he was hurt and playing in the AFC North is a lot tougher then the West but he was also the best RB on the team and expected to be a feature back.

With Charles coming back from an early season injury I can't see Hillis being much more then a spell back and insurance policy if Charles doesn't come back in time or gets hurt.

I don't see Hillis having much value until the 10th or later unless I have Charles or hear that he had a setback with his knee.
Do you understand this? Because his quad injury was verified. It is very difficult for players to play through an injured knee which is just a joint, but when the actual muscle that moves the joint is injured then it is no longer about playing through pain. The same level of play simply cannot be achieved.
Question to you guys based on what you're saying:

If you expect so much from Hilis, Then why is Charles being pretty much universally ranked as a top 10, RB1? That doesn't sound like any of the forecasters expect this kind of scenario where the team "worries" about easing charles in or the injury or anything.

Why is there NO mention of all the shannanigans that went on with Hillis last year? Usually when a player is accused of dogging it or not playing when he could have or, in general, basiaclly plays like a shell of what he did the year before, people are ALL over that. And if its due to citing injuries, people usually toss out the "injury prone" label. And Hillis has had his share of missed time. Actually, him playing most games is the exception for him, not the norm.

Are we completely overlooking Cyrus Gray? NO ONE mentions him, not even in the cleanup role. I find that odd. Young, unknown RBs tend to pop up here and there and you would think a rookie RB might be enticing to people expecting a team to run 500+ times.
Charles is being ranked in the top 10 because people are chumps. The guy does have 1.5 seasons worth of elite play so it is easy to see where the bandwagon comes from, but he's coming off a big injury (which others have recovered from, but the risks of slow recovery are often overlooked these days), and the other guy in the backfield was a complete bada55 with the current OC. The good news is that Charles could still get 250 touches in this offense so this is less about people overvaluing Charles (which I still think they are given the injury) and more about people undervaluing Hillis. If they both get 250 touches then they can both be RB2 or better fantasy plays. Hillis will need double digit TDs and Charles will need 6 ypc, but it is possible. Where we stand right now, Hillis appears to be the bargain.Why is he a bargain? Just like you said, people here may not be talking about it, but the general public thinks much like you and Borden. They perceive him to have been a quitter last year who couldn't hit a hole or break a tackle to save his life. That team was imploding and Hillis was injured, but this is very overlooked and people like me aren't going to draft him in the 3rd round when I know I can wait until the 6th, so we're not going to bump his ADP up much.

I don't know where you get the part about Hillis being injury prone. Until 2010 he was never a lead back. And personally, for long term health/production implications, I'd rather a guy have a torn quad last year than a torn ACL. I also don't see the point in talking about Gray and that is coming from an A&M guy. Mike Sherman ran a very good offense at A&M and Gray benefitted from it, but I never even felt like he was the best back on the team. Michael was the starter in 2010 until he tore his ACL so Gray became the starter, but Michael was the better runner between the tackles. From watching Gray, I don't think he's a threat to either guy, but if he was a threat it would be to Charles, not Hillis.
Are you Peyton Hillis? Because you seem pretty upset fella. You're writing without even thinking about what you're saying. I don't know what confused you about me saying that he was hurt. I didn't bring up anything other then he was hurt and you proceeded to tell me how he was hurt????The first time I was trying to be nice but here's the bottom line: Peyton Hillis sucks for fantasy football.

In his one good season he finished 11th in rushing yards (1177), tied for 6th in rushing TD's (11) on 270 carries and you think he's going to get just under that in a RBBC situation where he isn't the #1?

If he is such a good running back then why is he on his 3rd team in 5 years? Don't say because they got T-Rich because he was gone before the draft and why would any team (much less the Browns with all their RB injuries) let a solid running back leave? Maybe, Hillis left for that huge 1 year 3 million dollar deal?

Look man, I was very respectful in my first post and every other post I've make here expect this one (which still isn't that bad) but before you go calling people chumps, saying that I think he's a quitter (which I never brought up once) and asking me if I understand my own posts, just relax and reread my posts. I'm new around (and even if I wasn't) and don't want to get in battles. I enjoy discussions not arguments. Everyone here so far has been extremely pleasant and I will be too.

 
I haven't posted in this thread yet because I feel like my fantasy football crush on Hillis in 2012 is pretty well documented, but I'll jump in on a couple replies here...

With all do respect gentlemen, let's not get too ahead of our selves here.

Hillis had one 100+ yard game last year then, for the entire season, a total of 3 TD's, and averaged 3.6 yards on 161 carries. I understand that he was hurt and playing in the AFC North is a lot tougher then the West but he was also the best RB on the team and expected to be a feature back.

With Charles coming back from an early season injury I can't see Hillis being much more then a spell back and insurance policy if Charles doesn't come back in time or gets hurt.

I don't see Hillis having much value until the 10th or later unless I have Charles or hear that he had a setback with his knee.
Do you understand this? Because his quad injury was verified. It is very difficult for players to play through an injured knee which is just a joint, but when the actual muscle that moves the joint is injured then it is no longer about playing through pain. The same level of play simply cannot be achieved.
Question to you guys based on what you're saying:

If you expect so much from Hilis, Then why is Charles being pretty much universally ranked as a top 10, RB1? That doesn't sound like any of the forecasters expect this kind of scenario where the team "worries" about easing charles in or the injury or anything.

Why is there NO mention of all the shannanigans that went on with Hillis last year? Usually when a player is accused of dogging it or not playing when he could have or, in general, basiaclly plays like a shell of what he did the year before, people are ALL over that. And if its due to citing injuries, people usually toss out the "injury prone" label. And Hillis has had his share of missed time. Actually, him playing most games is the exception for him, not the norm.

Are we completely overlooking Cyrus Gray? NO ONE mentions him, not even in the cleanup role. I find that odd. Young, unknown RBs tend to pop up here and there and you would think a rookie RB might be enticing to people expecting a team to run 500+ times.
Charles is being ranked in the top 10 because people are chumps. The guy does have 1.5 seasons worth of elite play so it is easy to see where the bandwagon comes from, but he's coming off a big injury (which others have recovered from, but the risks of slow recovery are often overlooked these days), and the other guy in the backfield was a complete bada55 with the current OC. The good news is that Charles could still get 250 touches in this offense so this is less about people overvaluing Charles (which I still think they are given the injury) and more about people undervaluing Hillis. If they both get 250 touches then they can both be RB2 or better fantasy plays. Hillis will need double digit TDs and Charles will need 6 ypc, but it is possible. Where we stand right now, Hillis appears to be the bargain.Why is he a bargain? Just like you said, people here may not be talking about it, but the general public thinks much like you and Borden. They perceive him to have been a quitter last year who couldn't hit a hole or break a tackle to save his life. That team was imploding and Hillis was injured, but this is very overlooked and people like me aren't going to draft him in the 3rd round when I know I can wait until the 6th, so we're not going to bump his ADP up much.

I don't know where you get the part about Hillis being injury prone. Until 2010 he was never a lead back. And personally, for long term health/production implications, I'd rather a guy have a torn quad last year than a torn ACL. I also don't see the point in talking about Gray and that is coming from an A&M guy. Mike Sherman ran a very good offense at A&M and Gray benefitted from it, but I never even felt like he was the best back on the team. Michael was the starter in 2010 until he tore his ACL so Gray became the starter, but Michael was the better runner between the tackles. From watching Gray, I don't think he's a threat to either guy, but if he was a threat it would be to Charles, not Hillis.
Are you Peyton Hillis? Because you seem pretty upset fella. You're writing without even thinking about what you're saying. I don't know what confused you about me saying that he was hurt. I didn't bring up anything other then he was hurt and you proceeded to tell me how he was hurt????The first time I was trying to be nice but here's the bottom line: Peyton Hillis sucks for fantasy football.

In his one good season he finished 11th in rushing yards (1177), tied for 6th in rushing TD's (11) on 270 carries and you think he's going to get just under that in a RBBC situation where he isn't the #1?

If he is such a good running back then why is he on his 3rd team in 5 years? Don't say because they got T-Rich because he was gone before the draft and why would any team (much less the Browns with all their RB injuries) let a solid running back leave? Maybe, Hillis left for that huge 1 year 3 million dollar deal?

Look man, I was very respectful in my first post and every other post I've make here expect this one (which still isn't that bad) but before you go calling people chumps, saying that I think he's a quitter (which I never brought up once) and asking me if I understand my own posts, just relax and reread my posts. I'm new around (and even if I wasn't) and don't want to get in battles. I enjoy discussions not arguments. Everyone here so far has been extremely pleasant and I will be too.
Welcome.How about providing a breakdown of the KC backfield workload for us, as opposed to just saying Hillis sucks? No one, except maybe FF Ninja, thinks that Hillis is an elite talent. Rather, he's a decent / solid NFL RB who should be good enough to be productive in the great situation that he is in. The Chiefs have averaged 522 rushing attempts the past two years, and Charles' career high is 240 carries (and he's coming off of a major injury). Who is going to get the rest? McCluster? Cyrus Gray? Cassel gonna turn into Michael Vick? Hillis needs about 1000 total yards from scrimmage and 6 TDs to represent good value for his current draft slot. How is he not going to get that?

 
my take on the Hillis situation is pretty simple....

based on their current ADP's (although I think Hillis's ADP is going up a little recently)I think Charles will get less of a workload then people think and Hillis will get more of a workload....not really based on anything said by coaches, etc, just purely the fact that I don't think the Chiefs will give Charles more carries then he has had in the past and that Hillis is a VERY good all around football player....

Hillis played well in his time in DEN and was a fan favorite....they were very upset he was let go under McDaniels....he had a nice year in CLE and then ran into a tough stretch....the talent is still there and I think the Chiefs will utilize his skills and have him on the field quite often....he should become an immediate fan favorite in KC as soon as he bulldogs his way thru a couple tacklers....his ability to run, catch, and block will see him on the field a ton....Charles may still put up a nice season, but in my mind, after all the "normal" starters are gone, Hillis is the next guy to have....if Foster stays healthy one could argue that he may deserve to go before Tate...maybe, maybe not, but he is in that area I feel with Tate and Gerhart...if Charles goes down he has the skills to immediately becomes an RB1....

even assuming Charles stays healthy I wouldn't be surprised to see Hillis top 1000 total yards and approach double digit TD's....currently a premier RB3 who has a good shot at putting up RB2 numbers....you have to use a 2nd rounder on Charles and there is some risk there....Hillis seems to have a very decent floor at his current ADP with chances of really outperforming his ADP as his ceiling.....

 
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my take on the Hillis situation is pretty simple....based on their current ADP's (although I think Hillis's ADP is going up a little recently)I think Charles will get less of a workload then people think and Hillis will get more of a workload....not really based on anything said by coaches, etc, just purely the fact that I don't think the Chiefs will give Charles more carries then he has had in the past and that Hillis is a VERY good all around football player....Hillis played well in his time in DEN and was a fan favorite....they were very upset he was let go under McDaniels....he had a nice year in CLE and then ran into a tough stretch....the talent is still there and I think the Chiefs will utilize his skills and have him on the field quite often....he should become an immediate fan favorite in KC as soon as he bulldogs his way thru a couple tacklers....his ability to run, catch, and block will see him on the field a ton....Charles may still put up a nice season, but in my mind, after all the "normal" starters are gone, Hillis is the next guy to have....if Foster stays healthy one could argue that he may deserve to go before Tate...maybe, maybe not, but he is in that area I feel with Tate and Gerhart...if Charles goes down he has the skills to immediately becomes an RB1....even assuming Charles stays healthy I wouldn't be surprised to see Hillis top 1000 total yards and approach double digit TD's....currently a premier RB3 who has a good shot at putting up RB2 numbers....you have to use a 2nd rounder on Charles and there is some risk there....Hillis seems to have a very decent floor at his current ADP with chances of really outperforming his ADP as his ceiling.....
Agree on all these points. I have owned Hillis for the past 2 years and have monitered his situation very closely. Fact: Hillis is a VERY good football player who can do it all and thrives against stiff compeition even in a off year last yearOne thing not mentioned is that Shumur was the worst head coach I have ever seen and had a bone to pick with Hillis removing him at times all last year and trying to plug Hardesty in no matter how much he struggled. Shumur killed Hillis last year with horrendous play calling and a vendetta against him. HIllis will approach 1100 and 8 tds with the cheifs this year
 
Hillis's adp will rise after a few preseason games. These speculative value rb's become reliable once everyone sees how the team will use them. I remember this with Arian Foster two years ago. He was an afterthought or a sneaky shark play until he blew up for a few big yardage, multiple td preseason games, then he became a steal in the 3rd Rd. I have an unpleasant feeling that Hillis won't be a secret after preseason game three. Also have a feeling Charles drops a bit after that.

 
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I haven't posted in this thread yet because I feel like my fantasy football crush on Hillis in 2012 is pretty well documented, but I'll jump in on a couple replies here...

With all do respect gentlemen, let's not get too ahead of our selves here.

Hillis had one 100+ yard game last year then, for the entire season, a total of 3 TD's, and averaged 3.6 yards on 161 carries. I understand that he was hurt and playing in the AFC North is a lot tougher then the West but he was also the best RB on the team and expected to be a feature back.

With Charles coming back from an early season injury I can't see Hillis being much more then a spell back and insurance policy if Charles doesn't come back in time or gets hurt.

I don't see Hillis having much value until the 10th or later unless I have Charles or hear that he had a setback with his knee.
Do you understand this? Because his quad injury was verified. It is very difficult for players to play through an injured knee which is just a joint, but when the actual muscle that moves the joint is injured then it is no longer about playing through pain. The same level of play simply cannot be achieved.
Question to you guys based on what you're saying:

If you expect so much from Hilis, Then why is Charles being pretty much universally ranked as a top 10, RB1? That doesn't sound like any of the forecasters expect this kind of scenario where the team "worries" about easing charles in or the injury or anything.

Why is there NO mention of all the shannanigans that went on with Hillis last year? Usually when a player is accused of dogging it or not playing when he could have or, in general, basiaclly plays like a shell of what he did the year before, people are ALL over that. And if its due to citing injuries, people usually toss out the "injury prone" label. And Hillis has had his share of missed time. Actually, him playing most games is the exception for him, not the norm.

Are we completely overlooking Cyrus Gray? NO ONE mentions him, not even in the cleanup role. I find that odd. Young, unknown RBs tend to pop up here and there and you would think a rookie RB might be enticing to people expecting a team to run 500+ times.
Charles is being ranked in the top 10 because people are chumps. The guy does have 1.5 seasons worth of elite play so it is easy to see where the bandwagon comes from, but he's coming off a big injury (which others have recovered from, but the risks of slow recovery are often overlooked these days), and the other guy in the backfield was a complete bada55 with the current OC. The good news is that Charles could still get 250 touches in this offense so this is less about people overvaluing Charles (which I still think they are given the injury) and more about people undervaluing Hillis. If they both get 250 touches then they can both be RB2 or better fantasy plays. Hillis will need double digit TDs and Charles will need 6 ypc, but it is possible. Where we stand right now, Hillis appears to be the bargain.Why is he a bargain? Just like you said, people here may not be talking about it, but the general public thinks much like you and Borden. They perceive him to have been a quitter last year who couldn't hit a hole or break a tackle to save his life. That team was imploding and Hillis was injured, but this is very overlooked and people like me aren't going to draft him in the 3rd round when I know I can wait until the 6th, so we're not going to bump his ADP up much.

I don't know where you get the part about Hillis being injury prone. Until 2010 he was never a lead back. And personally, for long term health/production implications, I'd rather a guy have a torn quad last year than a torn ACL. I also don't see the point in talking about Gray and that is coming from an A&M guy. Mike Sherman ran a very good offense at A&M and Gray benefitted from it, but I never even felt like he was the best back on the team. Michael was the starter in 2010 until he tore his ACL so Gray became the starter, but Michael was the better runner between the tackles. From watching Gray, I don't think he's a threat to either guy, but if he was a threat it would be to Charles, not Hillis.
Are you Peyton Hillis? Because you seem pretty upset fella. You're writing without even thinking about what you're saying. I don't know what confused you about me saying that he was hurt. I didn't bring up anything other then he was hurt and you proceeded to tell me how he was hurt????The first time I was trying to be nice but here's the bottom line: Peyton Hillis sucks for fantasy football.

In his one good season he finished 11th in rushing yards (1177), tied for 6th in rushing TD's (11) on 270 carries and you think he's going to get just under that in a RBBC situation where he isn't the #1?

If he is such a good running back then why is he on his 3rd team in 5 years? Don't say because they got T-Rich because he was gone before the draft and why would any team (much less the Browns with all their RB injuries) let a solid running back leave? Maybe, Hillis left for that huge 1 year 3 million dollar deal?

Look man, I was very respectful in my first post and every other post I've make here expect this one (which still isn't that bad) but before you go calling people chumps, saying that I think he's a quitter (which I never brought up once) and asking me if I understand my own posts, just relax and reread my posts. I'm new around (and even if I wasn't) and don't want to get in battles. I enjoy discussions not arguments. Everyone here so far has been extremely pleasant and I will be too.
Settle down, fella. Most of that post wasn't addressed to you. Definitely not the part where people call him a quitter. But yeah, I stand by my questioning of if you understand your own post. If you understand that he had a substantial leg injury then why are you discounting him based on his play last year? Evaluate him based on his play when healthy unless you anticipate he's still injured or going to be injured in the same way again.The bottom line is that Hillis beasted in 2010 on a horrible team. He was also very productive when he got a shot in Denver. He finished RB2 in 2010 on 270 carries and 61 receptions on the Browns. KC is not great, but Cassell is better than McCoy. He probably won't get 270 & 61, but he's currently being drafted as RB32. All along I've just been saying he's excellent value. I don't expect him to finish top 5, but if Charles sucks or gets hurt then top 10 is a possibility.

Have a look at this thread to read a little more about Hillis and why he doesn't suck. To summarize, he forces missed tackles, pass protects well, blocks well, and has some of the best hands in the game.

 

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