Overvalued for 2012 (1 Viewer)

[butcher boy]

Wasn't McCoy a late 1st round pick this year? Doesnt that go agaisnt the idea of not takin a RB after the top 3?

I think a better way to put it is, dont take a player with a lot of question marks in the first round.

 

[cvnpoka]

well, i think they are speaking about the upcoming season specifically, and not as a rule.

 

[Grahamburn]

Wasn't McCoy a late 1st round pick this year? Doesnt that go agaisnt the idea of not takin a RB after the top 3?I think a better way to put it is, dont take a player with a lot of question marks in the first round.

He was, but I don't see a player like McCoy for the upcoming season. Take a look at the top 10 RBs for this season, the top 20. After those top 3 I don't see a player in there with the upside McCoy possessed unless AP is healthy, which I doubt he will be.That's part of the reason I still think Chris Johnson will be a first rounder. People will look at his past production, lack of competition for carries, upside, and the fantasy stigma of "first round RB." I'd take him ahead of Gore, MJD, SJAX, Turner, Mathews, Sproles, Forte, FJAX, Michael Bush, Reggie Bush, Mendenhall, McFadden, and maybe Lynch. All of these players have warts, which is why I think any of them as a first round RB is overvaluing them. That's a lot of backs btw, and another reason to take the WR or QB early. RBs are a dime a dozen these days.

 

[cvnpoka]

wr have warts too. can welker go in the first round? likely in ppr.

but andre has been a perennial first rounder for years but has underperformed the last 2 in particular. he is 31 and seems to have becomed saddled with the injury prone label.

who else? fitz, cruz, steve smith, roddy, jordy, mike wallace, nicks? i think id prefer most of those rbs, and surely in standard scoring.

peaking over some stats, i am talking myself into andre and fitz.

 

[Grahamburn]

wr have warts too. can welker go in the first round? likely in ppr.but andre has been a perennial first rounder for years but has underperformed the last 2 in particular. he is 31 and seems to have becomed saddled with the injury prone label.who else? fitz, cruz, steve smith, roddy, jordy, mike wallace, nicks? i think id prefer most of those rbs, and surely in standard scoring.peaking over some stats, i am talking myself into andre and fitz.

I play in two .5 PPR leagues. Larry Fitzgerald has scored more points than the #8 RB (Adrian Peterson). Fantasy owners have been complaining most of the season about Fitz' production. Imagine the potential if a light comes on for Kolb. I'd easily take him, Calvin, and Andre in the first round. Toss Brees, Rodgers, and Brady in there too. I'd much rather have any of those players as opposed to tossing a dart at one of the RBs.I didn't mean to derail the thread to first round talk. It's just an opinion, and obviously not a groundbreaking one, that RB in general is an overvalued position in fantasy football now.

 

[CompetitiveEdgeFootball]

Just off the top of my head-QB Tim Tebow- He puts up top 12(ish) numbers but could get decapitated at any time while running hither and yon, and is really such a terrible player could lose the job at any time.Flacco- Leapfrogged by Stafford, Newton, Matt Ryan... Why people still see this guy as anything but Alex Smith East is beyond me.Vick- the Vick as a first rounder experiment is over. Silly Matthew Berry. Way to take huge risks in the first round of a draft. Cam Newton- Will be sexy and super trendy, but his first year numbers will be hard to repeat, never mind improve upon.RBDeMarco Murray- Welcome to the proverbial tip of the "injury prone" iceberg.Adrian Peterson- Won't be fully recovered until past the 2012 trade deadline.Michael Turner- higher upside options will be available where you draft this player in major decline.Mendenhall- at some point during this coming offseason, someone in the Steelers organization will say that the team is going to return to a "ground and pound" philosophy. Don't be fooled.WRAndre Johnson- this guy does not belong in the late first/early 2nd anymore.Hakeem Nicks- the talent is there, but inconsistent play and emerging Cruz will make him a more volatile pick than Roddy/Fitz/Jennings.DeSean Jackson- someone in your league still thinks this guy is a WR1.Vincent Jackson- my perennial whipping boy.Mike Wallace- Will be drafted as an elite WR1, but his dependence on the big play and more importantly, the emergence of Antonio Brown will cap his upside.

Good post. I will commentDon't think Tebow will be that overvalued, unless you play in a guppie type league. Most sharks understand that Tebow will likely not be able to take that type of punishment on a consistent basis.....see Michael Vick. While he's quite a ways away from being a good NFL QB, I doubt that he will get pulled next year. But that risk is not minimal, so I think these risks will make Tebow slide a round or two in very competitive leagues.Agree 100% on Flacco. He's not a bad NFL QB, but he's not a good fantasy QB. Too inconsistent and BAL offense goes through Ray Rice.Disagree on Vick. He's not a first rounder in 2012.....he's more like a 3rd or even 4th rounder next year, and that's a spot where gambling on Vick could pay big dividends.Somewhat agree on Newton. Rushing TDs will be very hard to duplicate and Newton will have to cut down on the INTs to make him worth a first rounder.Agree 100% on all the RB selections.Agree with AJ. Can't stay healthy and Foster caps his upside.Somewhat disagree with Nicks. He was injured a lot this year, but Eli has come into his own, and Cruz only helps Nicks avoid getting double teamed. Eli should continue to throw for 4000+ yards, and Nicks IMO is still an elite talent.I have always thought Desean Jackson was overrated.....I guess he still is, but not as much as the past. Can't count on that guy. He would have to drop into the middle rounds for me to consider him.Agree 100% on VJax.....just too inconsistent to rely on him as a WR1 or high WR2.Somewhat agree on Wallace. I think Wallace and Brown will be 1a 1b next year, but PIT is a passing team and I think Wallace will still post good numbers. Would rather have Wallace as my WR2, so I think he will be slightly overrated.

About Vick- 3rd or 4th round ADP is what Brees/Brady were this year. I mean Vick has some pretty good upside, but even in the 3rd/4th round, getting a QB like Brees/Brady is just guaranteed money in the bank with very little risk. Factor in Stafford's rise, Cam Newton in the mix, and I presume the reemergence of Rivers, there's really no reason to take Vick there.Nicks seems likely to have an injured stretch every season, and at the point in the draft you'll probably have to take him, there will be some safer options.Although I think Wallace is an excellent player, he does depend somewhat on the big play. Just using the "eye test" Antonio Brown seems to have more elusiveness in the open field, although Wallace has brilliant straight line speed. They will cannibalize each other enough to drop them down a bit.

 

[Carolina Hustler]

Marshawn Lynch - He's playing for a contract this year, and still not too far removed from being benched for Fred Jackson in Buffalo. Beast mode is elite when the switch is turned on, but will it be next season? There are some definite questions with Lynch and the hype alone might propel this guy to the late first round, early second.

As if being outplayed by Fred Jackson proves anything...

FWIW, I recall seeing a breakdown a couple years ago and Lynch played just as well as Fred Jackson in the games they played together. He was given the backseat to Fred because Lynch was suspended for the first three games and Fred blew up. Lynch pretty much wore out his welcome in Buffalo. I think he's on the verge of pulling a Thomas Jones. If he slips to the 2nd round, I'd consider him undervalued.

Agreed, and actually, I think I was the one who did the breakdown...

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Lynch and Jackson played several good Ds while they were both in the lineup. Jackson outplayed him by a bit, but nothing like what Jackson did after Lynch got suspended - when the Bills line started coming together and the team played some bad run Ds.

Kind of like DeMarco Murray did this year in Dallas.

 

[Rodeojones]

Cam Newton - he'll be a first rounder next year in probably every scoring system imaginable, but you can't expect that many rushing touchdowns from a quarterback again. He'll likely still be very productive, both passing and running, but maybe not as productive as those drafting him very, very early will be hoping for. And I am someone who owes a lot to Cam for helping me to a championship this year, so I am not someone hating on him because I am pissed that I didn't benefit as a result of his rookie season.

Agree 100%. The best running QBs in NFL history haven't been able to sustain more than an average of about 5 - 7 rushing TDs / year over a multi-year period.I wonder if QBs in general might be pretty overvalued after the ridiculous years the elite ones are putting up. Manning and Brady both regressed to their historical means after the 50 TD years, I'm guessing Rodgers / Newton will be 1st round mistakes in 2012.

its going to be pick your poison with qbs or rbs with question marks.all first rounds will looks something like this

mccoy

foster

rice

rodgers

mjd

forte

calvin

and then what? go with cam, brees, brady, vick? decently safe picks.

the rest of the late round options have a ton of risk. injured guys like adp, charles, dmac and andre johnson, even murray.

possibly one yr wonders like fjax and lynch and again murray.

aging guys whos upside is decent but are a big risk to fall off like gore and turner and even sjax (albeit a bit later.)

mathews has certainly shown ability to produce huge numbers but gets dinged and risks an offensive overhaul with the coaching change.

wtf to do about chris johnson?

me, eh, just give me the qbs, ill be happy to gamble on helu, wells, rookies and whichever other rbs slip to later rounds. similar upside, similar risk, cheaper price.

Not to get nit picky but Fred Jackson is hardly a one year wonder. Been consistently solid for the past three seasons with this season being his best before getting injured.

 

[JAA]

Richardson

 

[cvnpoka]

Not to get nit picky but Fred Jackson is hardly a one year wonder. Been consistently solid for the past three seasons with this season being his best before getting injured.

im with you, fjax has been great on a per start and per carry basis for years. but he had never put up a season or stretch worthy of consideration for a top 12 or even 36 pick. one yr wonder may not be apt. he put up a studly 10 games but now there are a some question marks. was it a flukey overperformance? is he gonna hit the 30+ rb wall? will spiller usurp workload?