Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
Overvalued/undervalued (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter ttiger72
- Start date
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Phillies players who could be good value:
Ben Fransisco
Jimmy Rollins
Ben Fransisco
Jimmy Rollins
dparker713
Footballguy
They'll only be undervalued if they can both regain about 2 mph on their fastballs
Dr. Awesome
Footballguy
Sometimes players are cheap for a reason.
alert but I think any of the A's pitchers outside Cahill will be good value.
I'm not sure where I stand on Tulowitzki. I think Crawford will be grossly overrated if he bats leadoff.
alert but I think any of the A's pitchers outside Cahill will be good value.I'm not sure where I stand on Tulowitzki. I think Crawford will be grossly overrated if he bats leadoff.
Balco
Footballguy
Undervalues:
Raul Ibanez - I think he will go for really cheap and offers great value. Definitely an end game target for me.
Overvalued:
Jose Bautista - 50 homers is completely out of left field. When players like this have had these types of power surges, they never come close to reaching them again. Better chance he hits 15 homers than 30 homers.
Raul Ibanez - I think he will go for really cheap and offers great value. Definitely an end game target for me.
Overvalued:
Jose Bautista - 50 homers is completely out of left field. When players like this have had these types of power surges, they never come close to reaching them again. Better chance he hits 15 homers than 30 homers.
Balco
Footballguy
Looking at Broxton's splits, I think something was bothering him. Now, if that is the case, he is obviously a huge injury risk, but his upside is fantastic.Vasquesz is out of New York and back to a national league team with a pitchers park. Worked for him with the Braves 2 years ago. I will be targeting him in all leagues.
Dr. Awesome
Footballguy
I'm not sure where Bautista is going to be ranked but assuming he retains 3rd base eligibility I believe he might be undervalued. I'm guessing Zimmerman and ARod still go above him. And I doubt he'll smack 50 but I fully expect 30+.
Balco
Footballguy
Why would you expect 30? He is 3o years old, and his next highest homer season was 16. His downside is tremendous. He batted .260 last year. With a significant decrease in home runs, he offers little value.
Dr. Awesome
Footballguy
It generally takes awhile for power to develop. He hasn't had nearly the number of at bats in years prior. He flashed some bigtime power at the end of 2009. Still a lot of bats around him.
RnR
Footballguy
I'd be slightly concerned that almost everyone of those home runs was pulled to LF. Generally speaking, pitchers adjust to hitters that can't go the other way. It may be one of those situations where it takes an off-season of film watching from the AL East pitching staffs to understand exactly what it takes to adjust. I think the 2011 success of Bautista lies squarely on his ability to start driving the ball the other way, because I know he won't be getting a ball on the inner-half this season unless it is a mistake.
dparker713
Footballguy
Broxton may very well have been hurt last year. Vazquez may have been too as he was throwing 90+ in Atlanta and down to 88-89 last year. That was a much bigger problem for him than the league or the park last year given his approach. He'll either need to entirely change how he pitches (and likely lose a ton of Ks) or regain his fastball. Certainly both are players to follow in the spring, but I'd stay away in early drafts.
Balco
Footballguy
I don't think Vasquez will be a hot commodity. I only do auction leagues for baseball, so I will be targeting Vasquez as my # 5 for not alot of money. Definitely a reisk, because if it was not an injury, he could be doomed. But I like everything about his new park, and his prior success in the national league. And his lack of success in the American league.
Since a lot of players become sheik "sleeper" picks, and in turn become overvalued on draft day because everybody's read an article about them. So with that in mind, I thought I'd list some players I've already seen boarding the hype train ...
"Sleepers" In Danger of Being Woken Up
- Drew Stubbs ... already seeing several articles shouting about his 20/20 potential
- Matt Wieters ... being touted as "get him while his stock is low" a little too much for my comfort level
- Brandon Belt and Freddie Freeman ... I'll list these guys together since they're already being hyped as rookie 1B gods in SF and Atl respectively
- Craig Kimbrel ... "He's gonna be the closer" hype means "He's gonna be overvalued"
- Domonic Brown ... Everybody's already looking for the next Jason Heyward
- Max Scherzer ... Lots of hype about his 2nd half
- Asdrubal Cabrera ... I've already read 5 articles calling him a sleeper. Bad sign!
Undervalued
- Justin Morneau ... concussion concerns are valid, but that's why he's undervalued
- Gordon Beckham ... I have seen him in the "sleeper" category a little, but I think this guy will go late in most drafts
- Aaron Hill ... He sucked last year and will be a total steal if he returns even close to 2009
- Chris Iannetta ... Not exactly setting the world on fire, but he can easily be your last round catcher that contributes plenty
- Jose Lopez ... Just what you want on draft day, a guy that will contribute that will be total wallpaper to the rest of your league
"Sleepers" In Danger of Being Woken Up
- Drew Stubbs ... already seeing several articles shouting about his 20/20 potential
- Matt Wieters ... being touted as "get him while his stock is low" a little too much for my comfort level
- Brandon Belt and Freddie Freeman ... I'll list these guys together since they're already being hyped as rookie 1B gods in SF and Atl respectively
- Craig Kimbrel ... "He's gonna be the closer" hype means "He's gonna be overvalued"
- Domonic Brown ... Everybody's already looking for the next Jason Heyward
- Max Scherzer ... Lots of hype about his 2nd half
- Asdrubal Cabrera ... I've already read 5 articles calling him a sleeper. Bad sign!
Undervalued
- Justin Morneau ... concussion concerns are valid, but that's why he's undervalued
- Gordon Beckham ... I have seen him in the "sleeper" category a little, but I think this guy will go late in most drafts
- Aaron Hill ... He sucked last year and will be a total steal if he returns even close to 2009
- Chris Iannetta ... Not exactly setting the world on fire, but he can easily be your last round catcher that contributes plenty
- Jose Lopez ... Just what you want on draft day, a guy that will contribute that will be total wallpaper to the rest of your league
KiddLattimer
Footballguy
Joe Torre repeatedly sending him in to pitch the 8th inning up 5 runs was bothering me.
ttiger72
Footballguy
Bautista strikes me as a guy who might actually get a little under-valued, his BB and K rates (14% and 20%) were phenomenal, and a very low BABIP tamped down what could've even been a better season in terms of avg/run/rbi. I think 290/400/530, 35 HR, 110 RBI is not unreasonable.
RnR
Footballguy
You'll probably own him in every league you play this spring if that's where you feel comfortable projecting him.
Captain Hook
Footballguy
Seems like you have not looked at Bautista's 2009 season - he worked with coaches in Toronto to rework his swing - prior to that in the first half of the year, he had two home runs and then 11 in the second half with the new swing.So while 2010 is clearly an outlier at this point, his second half in 2009 indicated he was due for a career high in home runs last year as long as he could get enough AB......and by the way the .260 BAvg you dismiss was a career high and with a clear road to more playing time this year is projected to increase again.
RnR
Footballguy
So when would you advocate drafting this guy? No way I'm wasting a top 5 pick in a $$$ draft on a guy with this track record.
dparker713
Footballguy
How ould playing time lead to an increase in BA? And who exactly is projecting him to increase his BA? Only projection I've seen is Bill James and he projects a slight decrease in average. When you look at his batted ball profile, while last year's BABIP was low, it was mostly deserved. He had an extremely high infield fly percentage (automatic outs) and a low linedrive rate along with a spike in flyballs in general. He'd really need to increase his LD rate to make a noticeable increase in average, and that might just result in a significant decrease in power.
Captain Hook
Footballguy
RnR
Footballguy
Sorry, I should have clarified. I meant top 5 round pick. You'd be out of your mind to take him as a top 5 overall pick.
shuke
Black Ice Skeptic
Potential? He was 22/30 last year.
Captain Hook
Footballguy
Baseball HQ has him projected to hit .270 with 37 HRWe at Mastersball are slightly more conservative at .256dparker713 said:
Captain Hook
Footballguy
I will give you thirty or less and take the over for $100 for Bautista in 2011
Arsenal of Doom
Footballguy
Some food for thought on Tulo - since June 2009 here are his numbers:224 games, 54 HR/171 RBI/.323 BA/.394 OBP/.992 OPS/.420 wOBAThat translates into a full season line of:162 games, 39 HR/124 RBI/.323 BA/.394 OBP/.992 OPS/.420 wOBAJune 2009 is a significant because it is when he changed to an upright batting stance that has resulted in much better ability to drive the ball to all fields. Those numbers put him in the discussion for the top hitter in the game regardless of position, and he happens to play at a premium spot. Of course you have to balance that against only having roughly a season and a half worth of productivity at that level and 2 shortened seasons out of 4. On balance, I think that both his ceiling and floor are so high that it is difficult to overvalue him.
Mr. Pickles
Footballguy
Stubbs reminds me of BJ Upton. I'm terrified of the average, but I know that you'd draft him before I could sniff him.
MAC_32
Footballguy
His first 5 months of 2010 don't scare the crap out of you? When he gets hot there isn't a better fantasy player, but the cold streaks are long and painful especially given how often he's been injured.
Arsenal of Doom
Footballguy
He'd hit .304./.350/.502 with 9 HR and 34 RBI in 62 games before he got hurt in June. You have to go back all the way to May 2009 to find a full month that I think really qualifies as a cold streak. His March/April 2010 was the weakest month in that stretch and he still hit .304 with a .785 OPS and 13 RBI. There's still the injury thing but his major injuries have been a torn quad and the broken bone in his wrist from getting plunked last year, pretty random and unrelated. He's only 26 and there's no degenerating knee or back issue that puts him at serious risk of losing time going forward.
Northern Voice
Footballguy
Interesting that you posted this while Napoli was still a Jay. With Napoli gone, EE is back to being the everyday DH. I think he could hit 30 HR's pretty easily, just not sure if he'll help or hinder in other categories.
