P. Manning vs. Vick (1 Viewer)

[pollardsvision]

Before the WDIS police come, I don't own either of these guys in any league.

Just seems like an interesting topic.

Both have people thinking they might be done, despite some pretty nice fantasy numbers so far. Both still have the potential to win you a league, but nobody at all seems to want them right now.

 

[habsfan]

Voting Manning because I feel like I'm likely to get less deviation in weekly scoring. Feast or famine weeks from your QB can really hurt.

 

[chinawildman]

Voting Manning because I feel like I'm likely to get less deviation in weekly scoring. Feast or famine weeks from your QB can really hurt.

Volume and rushing yards actually make Vick a safer bet for consistency. The injuries are what you have to worry about with him. But this one's easily Vick for me. He's played some tough defenses to date and has essentially been without his #1 wr for 2 games.

 

[The Jerk]

He's played some tough defenses to date and has essentially been without his #1 wr for 2 games.

As far as I'm concerned, it's more important to analyze the defenses on the schedule from weeks 4-16 than just who they faced weeks 1-3. Having said that, keep in mind that Peyton played the most difficult fantasy passing defense last week.In any case, according to fftoday rest of season fantasy sos, from now until week 16, defenses Peyton will be facing have allowed 12.5% more pts per game than average, and defenses Vick will be facing have allowed 3.5% more pts per game than average.

There are problems with this information, such as we're still early in the season, the "tough" defenses may have just played weak offenses so far, the numbers won't necessarily hold, etc. An example of how you can't just apply the numbers is in the matchup. I've seen the Giants with a +12.2% number, but it may not work out as well for Vick as it did for Romo and Freeman. First, the Giants are getting healthier in the secondary, but the bigger issue is that their defensive line figures to feast on the Eagles injury-weakened offensive line.

Still, the numbers are the numbers, and the FBG pay SoS information suggests a similar theme. Denver has the easiest passing defense for the rest of the season, Philadelphia plays the 8th easiest passing defense for the rest of the season.

What may be more relevant is the easiest weeks each QB has left. Perhaps the best argument for Vick is that he has his easiest defenses Weeks 11, 15 and 16. Looks good for the fantasy playoffs if you get there. Peyton has his easiest defense Weeks 9, 12, and 16. So it's week 15 that is the differentiator perhaps.

As always it's going to depend on your scoring system to a large part, but it's hard to see the schedule as a factor in favor of Vick. If anything, it leans Peyton's way. My bigger concern with Vick is his offensive line (2 starters already out for the season) and his decision making. I think it's very close between the two as far as rest of season performance. It can come down to the passing TD = 4 pts vs. 6 pts. In a 6 pt passing TD league, I'd want Peyton. In a 4 pt passing TD league, I'd want Vick.

 

[Borat]

Who thinks Manning is done, and how do I profit from their foolishness?

 

[chinawildman]

He's played some tough defenses to date and has essentially been without his #1 wr for 2 games.

As far as I'm concerned, it's more important to analyze the defenses on the schedule from weeks 4-16 than just who they faced weeks 1-3. Having said that, keep in mind that Peyton played the most difficult fantasy passing defense last week.In any case, according to fftoday rest of season fantasy sos, from now until week 16, defenses Peyton will be facing have allowed 12.5% more pts per game than average, and defenses Vick will be facing have allowed 3.5% more pts per game than average.

I'm not a big proponent of using FF pts allowed this early in the season as a heavy component of analysis. For example, in that link SF is considered a +12% for QBs vs Minnesota and Carolina which are both in the negatives.

Both Manning and Vick have played vs good defenses, but I still maintain that Vick was without Maclin for a majority of those games. Take Demaryius Thomas out of 2 games for Manning and I guarantee his stats suffer too.

 

[The Jerk]

I'm not a big proponent of using FF pts allowed this early in the season as a heavy component of analysis. For example, in that link SF is considered a +12% for QBs vs Minnesota and Carolina which are both in the negatives.

All details that I pointed out in the next paragraph you for some reason didn't post...It's completely ok for people to disagree on a player. Everyone doesn't assign the same importance or draw the same conclusions to data that you do. You may very well be right. At its best, the Shark Pool allows varying perspectives from multiple angles to allow individuals to make their own decisions about the merit of one player or another, and on which statistics to weigh more or less heavily. I think Vick's problems have a lot more to do with Vick than the defense he's playing against. I also don't think all of the turnovers can be blamed on the absence of Maclin, although it should help Vick when he returns. However, above you can see I actually endorse Vick over Peyton in 4 point passing TD leagues. We're not necessarily that divergent in our actual expectations. All I'm doing with rest of the way defense strength is bringing more information to this thread, so anyone viewing it can take it or leave it with respect to their team management.

 

[chinawildman]

I'm not a big proponent of using FF pts allowed this early in the season as a heavy component of analysis. For example, in that link SF is considered a +12% for QBs vs Minnesota and Carolina which are both in the negatives.

All details that I pointed out in the next paragraph you for some reason didn't post...It's completely ok for people to disagree on a player. Everyone doesn't assign the same importance or draw the same conclusions to data that you do. You may very well be right. At its best, the Shark Pool allows varying perspectives from multiple angles to allow individuals to make their own decisions about the merit of one player or another, and on which statistics to weigh more or less heavily. I think Vick's problems have a lot more to do with Vick than the defense he's playing against. I also don't think all of the turnovers can be blamed on the absence of Maclin, although it should help Vick when he returns. However, above you can see I actually endorse Vick over Peyton in 4 point passing TD leagues. We're not necessarily that divergent in our actual expectations. All I'm doing with rest of the way defense strength is bringing more information to this thread, so anyone viewing it can take it or leave it with respect to their team management.

Fair enough. I left that part out because though you cited the incompleteness of the information, you didn't disregard it as a pillar to your analysis. I do think Vick has his own issues and the Eagles as a whole just can't seem to get into a rhythm. Honestly it's starting to feel like the beginning of the debacle for the Mike Martz Rams. It is very close, but for me part of the engagement of FF is the excitement of watching your players perform. For example if Lynch and Charles were equal in my pre draft rankings, I would take Charles because I know he could take one to the house at any time. For me Vick is more exciting to watch than the broncos version of Peyton.

 

[The Jerk]

It is very close,

I think that's the point right there!!It's an interesting debate. I can easily see Vick raising his production 20% just by knocking off the ridiculous turnovers. For Peyton, I can see him improving a little over each quarter of the season as he gets dialed in with his new surroundings and figuring out his limitations and strengths.Good discussion.