Panning for Waiver Wire Gold (1 Viewer)

[Drunken Benson]

Got to wondering which of the positions was easiest to address on the waiver wire. Thought it might be running backs. Down that rabbit hole I went:

Below, I list the most popular waiver wire adds for each week during 2013.

Top Adds, week prior to Week 2

1.Edelman, Julian NEP WR-Genius!

2.Thomas, Julius DEN TE-Genius!

3.Hankerson, Leonard WAS WR-Epic Fail

4.Winslow, Kellen NYJ TE-Epic Fail

5.Brown, Marlon BAL WR-Win

6.Simpson, Jerome MIN WR-Epic Fail

7.Bell, Joique DET RB-Genius!

8.Jacobs, Brandon FA RB-Fail

9.Pryor, Terrelle OAK QB-Win

10.Clark, Dallas BAL TE-Fail

My ratings criteria:

Genius! = You might still have a poster of him on the wall.

Win = Did what you hoped he would do.

Meh = Didnt hurt you too bad that one time you started him.

Fail = Cut him and tried to forget about the whole thing.

Epic Fail = Looked great until you actually started him. You have vowed never to draft him or his offspring ever again.

In the futile effort to minimize the hostility of any replies, a few words about my (admittedly arbitrary) criteria. Judging the success of a free agent pickup requires more than the sum of his point total. Context matters: decent season numbers do not impress if said player consistently killed you by showing just enough promise for you to foolishly start him yet again. Success requires enough consistency to actually start him, and then produce when you do so.

Top Adds, week prior to Week 3

1.Starks, James GBP RB-Fail

2.Royal, Eddie SDC WR-Fail

3.McGahee, Willis CLE RB-Epic Fail

4.Clay, Charles MIA TE-Genius!

5.Snelling, Jason ATL RB-Epic Fail

6.Vikings, Minnesota MIN Def

7.Ellington, Andre ARI RB-Genius!

8.Moreno, Knowshon DEN RB-Genius!

9.Bills, Buffalo BUF Def

10.Brown, Donald IND RB-Win

Eddie Royal. His season numbers arent terrible, but he was pure torture to own. You got feeble production for three weeks, then nothing, then you cut him, then back-to-back big games, then nada. Thanks for nothing, Eddie!

Top Adds, week prior to Week 4

1.Bolden, Brandon NEP RB-Epic Fail

2.Snelling, Jason ATL RB-Already Failed

3.Chiefs, Kansas City KCC Def

4.Colts, Indianapolis IND Def-WTF?

5.Holmes, Santonio NYJ WR-Epic Fail

6.Avery, Donnie KCC WR-Fail

7.Powell, Bilal NYJ RB-Meh

8.Franklin, Johnathan GBP RB-Epic Fail

9.Sturgis, Caleb MIA PK-WTF?

10.Hill, Stephen NYJ WR-Epic Fail

Somehow, for a minute, we though the Colts Defense and Caleb Sturgis were interesting.

Top Adds, week prior to Week 5

1.Jennings, Rashad OAK RB-Genius!

2.Washington, Nate TEN WR-Win

3.Blount, LeGarrette NEP RB-Meh

4.Browns, Cleveland CLE Def

5.Hoyer, Brian CLE QB-Epic Fail

6.Novak, Nick SDC PK

7.Panthers, Carolina CAR Def

8.Woodhead, Danny SDC RB-Genius!

9.Rams, St. Louis STL Def-Meh

10.Woods, Robert BUF WR-Fail

The futility of waiver wire WRs is in full blossom. At this point, waiver wire running backs have yielded the likes of Joique Bell, Andre Ellington, Knowshon Moreno, Rashad Jennings, and Danny Woodhead. Flailing around for WRs has basically netted you: Julian Edelman, who will be cut by many teams mid-season, then frantically claimed once again.

Top Adds, week prior to Week 6

1.Douglas, Harry ATL WR-Genius!

2.Williams, Terrance DAL WR-Epic Fail

3.Graham, Garrett HOU TE-Epic Fail

4.Stacy, Zac STL RB-Genius!

5.Allen, Keenan SDC WR-Genius!

6.Pettis, Austin STL WR-Epic Fail

7.Blount, LeGarrette NEP RB-Already Meh

8.Crosby, Mason GBP PK-WTF?

9.Foles, Nick PHI QB-Genius!

10.Brown, Donald IND RB-Meh

Hope you got Zac Stacy, because thats the last good running back to emerge all year.

Austin Pettis had four TDs on the season, all prior to week 6.

Top Adds, week prior to Week 7

1.Randle, Joseph DAL RB-Fail

2.Jacobs, Brandon FA RB-Epic Fail

3.Boykin, Jarrett GBP WR-Genius!

4.Foles, Nick PHI QB-Already Genius

5.Allen, Keenan SDC WR-Already Genius

6.Ogbonnaya, Chris CLE RB-Epic Fail

7.Crosby, Mason GBP PK-Again, WTF?

8.Fauria, Joseph DET TE-Epic Fail

9.Cumberland, Jeff NYJ TE-Epic Fail

10.Wright, Tim TBB TE-Win

Top Adds, week prior to Week 8

1.James, Mike TBB RB-Meh

2.-Hillis, Peyton NYG RB-Fail

3.Reed, Jordan WAS TE-Win

4.Heyward-Bey, Darrius IND WR-Epic Fail

5.Boykin, Jarrett GBP WR-Already Genius

6.Ivory, Chris NYJ RB-Win

7.Helu, Roy WAS RB-Epic Fail

8.Saints, New Orleans NOS Def

9.Locker, Jake TEN QB-Epic Fail

10.Jones, Marvin CIN WR-Meh?

Marvin Jones will score 4 touchdowns next week. But you will not have started him.

Top Adds, week prior to Week 9

1.Jones, Marvin CIN WR-Meh!

2.Stills, Kenny NOS WR-Fail

3.Vinatieri, Adam IND PK

4.McCluster, Dexter KCC WR-Meh

5.Starks, James GBP RB-Meh

6.Tolbert, Mike CAR RB-Fail

7.Colts, Indianapolis IND Def-What, again?

8.Locker, Jake TEN QB-Season Ends

9.Folk, Nick NYJ PK

10.Novak, Nick SDC PK

A meh week. Marvin Jones will now kill your team for a month. Then you will cut him. Then he will be pretty good again.

Starks will fill in for Lacy for a week, which is all you really wanted.

Top Adds, week prior to Week 10

1.Jennings, Rashad OAK RB-Already genius

2.Cooper, Riley PHI WR-Win?

3.Foles, Nick PHI QB-Still Genius

4.Keenum, Case HOU QB-Fail

5.Brown, Mike JAC WR-Epic Fail

6.Dobson, Aaron NEP WR-Epic Fail

7.Wright, Tim TBB TE-Already won

8.Dolphins, Miami MIA Def

9.Cardinals, Arizona ARI Def

10.Gould, Robbie CHI PK

Riley Cooper will be a decent WR2 the rest of the season, but few will believe in him. Now for no apparent reason, nobody believes in him.

By the time you believed in Case Keenum, you were wrong.

Top Adds, week prior to Week 11

1.Leonard, Brian TBB RB-Epic Fail

2.Johnson, Dennis HOU RB-Epic Fail

3.Matthews, Rishard MIA WR-Epic Fail

4.Rainey, Bobby TBB RB-Win

5.Carlson, John MIN TE-Meh

6.Folk, Nick NYJ PK

7.Ingram, Mark NOS RB-Epic Fail

8.Succop, Ryan KCC PK

9.Cooper, Riley PHI WR-Not too late

10.Keenum, Case HOU QB-Too late

Congratulations if you figured out the Bobby Rainey-Brian Leonard thing. I didnt.

The words Mark Ingram and Epic Fail just belong together.

Top Adds, week prior to Week 12

1.Rainey, Bobby TBB RB-Too late

2.Walker, Delanie TEN TE- Meh too late

3.Brown, Donald IND RB-Still Meh

4.-Cotchery, Jerricho PIT WR-Fail

5.Rams, St. Louis STL Def

6.Ogbonnaya, Chris CLE RB-Epic Fail

7.Graham, Garrett HOU TE-Fail

8.Bailey, Dan DAL PK

9.Saints, New Orleans NOS Def

10.Palmer, Carson ARI QB-Win

More failure. By the time you started Delanie Walker, he got hurt again.

Top Adds, week prior to Week 13

1.Cunningham, Benny STL RB-Epic Fail

2.Burleson, Nate DET WR-Epic Fail

3.Bolden, Brandon NEP RB-Epic Fail

4.Bills, Buffalo BUF Def

5.Streater, Rod OAK WR-Win

6.Dolphins, Miami MIA Def

7.Edelman, Julian NEP WR-Already Genius

8.Palmer, Carson ARI QB-Already Winning

9.Green, Ladarius SDC TE-Epic Fail

10.Johnson, Dennis HOU RB-Epic Fail

Ladarius Green, the heir apparent to Antonio Gates: in weeks 11-13 he scored: 12.1, 17, and 12.5 points in PPR leagues. In weeks 14-16 he scored zero, zero, and zero.

Top Adds, week prior to Week 14

1.Green, Ladarius SDC TE-Youre too late.

2.Holmes, Andre OAK WR-Win

3.Raiders, Oakland OAK Def-Theyre playing the Jets, that's why.

4.Edelman, Julian NEP WR-Theres still time!

5.McCown, Josh CHI QB-Genius!

6.Tucker, Justin BAL PK

7.Sanders, Ace JAC WR-Meh

8.Ertz, Zach PHI TE-Fail

9.Baldwin, Doug SEA WR-Meh

10.Cook, Jared STL TE-Fail

If you plugged-and-played Josh McCown against the Cowboys well played, sir.

Top Adds, week prior to Week 15

1.Pitta, Dennis BAL TE-Epic Fail

2.Gerhart, Toby MIN RB-Fail

3.Reece, Marcel OAK RB-Fail

4.Todman, Jordan JAC RB-Win

5.Rogers, Da'Rick IND WR-Fail

6.Eagles, Philadelphia PHI Def

7.Patterson, Cordarrelle MIN WR-Genius!

8.Thomas, Daniel MIA RB-Epic Fail

9.Cousins, Kirk WAS QB-Win

10.Tamme, Jacob DEN TE-Epic Fail

Jacob Tamme epitomized the Broncos that week.

The only reason Patterson lasted this long is that nobody knew what to make of him. We still don't.

Top Adds, week prior to Week 16

1.Todman, Jordan JAC RB-Too late

2.Cousins, Kirk WAS QB-Too late

3.Lions, Detroit DET Def

4.Caldwell, Andre DEN WR-Epic Fail

5.Johnson, Dennis HOU RB-Epic Fail

6.Dawson, Phil SFO PK

7.Asiata, Matt MIN RB-Too late

8.Quarless, Andrew GBP TE-Epic Fail

9.Browns, Cleveland CLE Def

10.Walker, Delanie TEN TE-Still Meh

Lets face it, if you were starting any of these guys Championship Week, it probably wasn't your year anyway. At least Asiata had the decency to be inactive.

Season Futility Totals

RBs: 16 Epic Fails, 7 Fails, 4 Mehs, 4 Wins, 6 Geniuses

WRs: 11 Epic Fails, 6 Fails, 5 Mehs, 5 Wins, 5 Geniuses

TEs: 7 Epic Fails, 3 Fails, 1 Mehs, 2 Wins, 2 Geniuses

QBs: 2 Epic Fails, 2 Fails, 0 Mehs, 2 Wins, 2 Geniuses

Conclusions

1) Running Back Carnage = Fumbled Handoff

Elite running backs got injured at an historic rate last season, which should have made stars out of their back-ups. Not this year. Out of the six running backs to emerge (Joique Bell, Andre Ellington, Knowshon Moreno, Rashad Jennings, Danny Woodhead, and Zac Stacy), only Jennings got his chance due purely to injury. Increasingly, the loss of a bellcow back is addressed via committee, which does not lend itself to fantasy goodness. When obvious opportunities did exist, the beneficiaries promptly got injured themselves: Ben Tate, Mike James, Toby Gerhart, and Matt Asiata could have, should have been great pickups.

2) Wide Receiver Carnage = Catching Fire

On the other hand, Boykin, Edelman, and Douglas got their opportunities due to injury. All are average talents in exceptional passing offenses. Allen is very talented, but injuries to Alexander and Floyd helped clear his path. The recurring failure is in trying to identify the awesome new receiver. The recurring success comes from identifying injury, volume, and doing the math.

3) Strike Early

By week 6, twelve of the fifteen Genius! pickups had been made. If you snoozed, you loozed. Moreover, you got that production for the bulk of the season.

4) Quarterbacks are Easy

A small sample size, but Nick Foles and Josh McCown served us well.

 

[Bojang0301]

Haven't seen too much on this subject. I remember distinctly picking up some of these and laughed. Waiver wire saved my season last year but I see now it was a bit of stroke of luck. Like picking up Steve Beurlein and Patrick Jeffers at just the right time. Waiver wire is like the watering hole.

 

[ratbast]

Quite interesting and fun actually.

 

[DropKick]

Injury often makes the choice obvious. Someone had to catch the ball after injury to Cobb, Jones, etc.

In start one QB leagues of small/moderate roster sizes, there is usually a serviceable QB on the Waiver Wire. This is just supply/demand.

The same is true for TEs. Although last year, there seemed to be an explosion of TEs available.

WRs are also usually in good supply based on sheer volume. I always expect break outs early in the season.

RB is always tough due to draft hoarding. Most backs and the top handcuffs are usually drafted in my leagues. I'll often carry a single TE or one less WR to handcuff a key RB. I'll consider the caliber of the player and the offensive line in that decision.

I think the key is not so much position but when and on who to pull the trigger. I've transitioned from high volume acquisitions to just a handful to be in position to grab a player when they emerge.

I think I've done well... I had 20% of your "genius" acquisitions on my roster (although I drafted two of them) plus I picked up and started Marvin Jones (byes and injuries) for his 4 TD week.

 

[Drunken Benson]

Injury often makes the choice obvious. Someone had to catch the ball after injury to Cobb, Jones, etc.

In start one QB leagues of small/moderate roster sizes, there is usually a serviceable QB on the Waiver Wire. This is just supply/demand.

The same is true for TEs. Although last year, there seemed to be an explosion of TEs available.

WRs are also usually in good supply based on sheer volume. I always expect break outs early in the season.

RB is always tough due to draft hoarding. Most backs and the top handcuffs are usually drafted in my leagues. I'll often carry a single TE or one less WR to handcuff a key RB. I'll consider the caliber of the player and the offensive line in that decision.

I think the key is not so much position but when and on who to pull the trigger. I've transitioned from high volume acquisitions to just a handful to be in position to grab a player when they emerge.

All good points, and support the general consensus is that RBs must be hoarded. However, my personal experience is that I can "do the opposite" (TM Paul Charchian) and wait to draft my RB2 and RB3 as I have (usually) always been able to either nab a good one late in the draft or scrounge one off the waiver wire (I may or may not still have a Ryan Grant poster somewhere). Why? My theory is that emerging RBs are so much easier to spot than WRs or TEs. Emerging receivers are problematic because a high volume might be due to game plan, defensive coverage, score, or just randomness dominating a small sample size. A 7-catch, 2TD game can easily be followed by nothing, ever again. RBs are more obvious. A 25-carry, 3-catch, 120-yard game from a new RB is likely to be followed by more of the same. Furthermore, it is easier to gauge RB skill: powerful, fast, and agile are plain to see. Receiver skills are more subtle and frequently reliant on their QB's skills and whims.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Has anyone found THE waiver wire Star this year, at any position?

I usually live and die on the WW, but this year it's been pretty damned unspectacular. It's early still I guess.

The best in my estimating has been Ronnie Hillman for those who got him.

Any other candidates out there?

 

[MattFancy]

Has anyone found THE waiver wire Star this year, at any position?

I usually live and die on the WW, but this year it's been pretty damned unspectacular. It's early still I guess.

The best in my estimating has been Ronnie Hillman for those who got him.

Any other candidates out there?

Allen Robinson

Justin Forsett

 

[SameSongNDance]

3) Strike EarlyBy week 6, twelve of the fifteen Genius! pickups had been made. If you snoozed, you loozed. Moreover, you got that production for the bulk of the season.

Great post. This is the most crucial point IMO. Currently, my FAAB is essentially gone in all of my leagues. Every week I look at the dude with the most left (usually someone hasn't spent a dime) and I wonder "WTF is this guy waiting for?".

 

[ldizzle]

Has anyone found THE waiver wire Star this year, at any position?

I usually live and die on the WW, but this year it's been pretty damned unspectacular. It's early still I guess.

The best in my estimating has been Ronnie Hillman for those who got him.

Any other candidates out there?

forsett ownersnmust be pretty happy...

 

[Omniscient Deity]

Justin Forsett is shaping up to be a true WW gem. He's a RB2 at worst every week in 12 team leagues. Brandon LaFell, Allen Robinson, Denard Robinson, Delanie Walker all have been solid adds. Jonas Gray could be decent, he's basically the new Ridley except he hasn't fumbled yet.

 

[Gvindy]

Mckinnon has been solid and I think he's going to get better. Interested what M Bryant and Moncrief will do ROS. Inevitably there will be a major pickup around week 13 that will help win championships (usually an Rb).

 

[ratdog]

Ahmad Bradshaw was largely undrafted. I pick him up in 3 leagues on the WW during the first and second weeks of the season

 

[Wrigley]

Ahmad Bradshaw was largely undrafted. I pick him up in 3 leagues on the WW during the first and second weeks of the season

This

Kelvin Benjamin(although I used my last draft pick on him, assuming he went undrafted in other leagues)

Hillman

 

[steelers1080]

Justin Forsett

Ahmad Bradshaw

Delanie Walker

Martavis Bryant

Allen Robinson

Sadly traded away Forsett below value after week 3.

 

[Buck Bradcanon]

Haven't seen mentioned..

Branden Oliver

Charles Sims (To be determined..)

Beckham

Sanu

Lafell

 

[Omniscient Deity]

McKinnon completely slipped my mind. I agree that he's another gem, more upside than Forsett as well with how explosive he is.

 

[Ilov80s]

The jury is still out on Denard. He might end up being the last big WW pickup.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Jonas Gray could end up being pretty valuable in start-two RB leagues. Based on Ridley/Blount last few years, he's a good bet to be in the 11-13ppg area for the ROS. Possibly a + starter as your RB3.

 

[Isotopes]

When does TB make a decision on activating Sims?

 

[Tango]

Eddie Royal as uzz was an early season WW superstar and is still in Top 15.

There's reason to believe he will be back in the EZ at least 3-5 more times; his snap % is showing no signs of going lower and the chance of a Floyd/Gates/Allen injury is always high.