FF Writers Valuing RBs Like NFL GMs (1 Viewer)

[LawFitz]

Prepare to zag when your league zigs to WRs this year...

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1.01 1 @FF_Contrarian Jefferson, Justin MIN WR Mon Aug 7 1:44:12 p.m. ET 2023 -
1.02 2 @RotoPat Chase, Ja'Marr CIN WR Mon Aug 7 1:48:09 p.m. ET 2023 3 minutes
1.03 3 @BraudeM Hill, Tyreek MIA WR Mon Aug 7 2:12:30 p.m. ET 2023 24 minutes
1.04 4 @EvanSilva Kupp, Cooper LAR WR (Q) Mon Aug 7 2:53:03 p.m. ET 2023 40 minutes
1.05 5 @Ihartitz Diggs, Stefon BUF WR Mon Aug 7 4:41:32 p.m. ET 2023 1 hour
1.06 6 @LordReebs McCaffrey, Christian SFO RB Mon Aug 7 4:54:20 p.m. ET 2023 12 minutes
1.07 7 @MattHarmon_BYB Ekeler, Austin LAC RB Mon Aug 7 4:57:07 p.m. ET 2023 2 minutes
1.08 8 @SigmundBloom Kelce, Travis KCC TE Mon Aug 7 5:14:46 p.m. ET 2023 17 minutes
1.09 9 @MikeClayNFL Adams, Davante LVR WR Mon Aug 7 5:28:06 p.m. ET 2023 13 minutes
1.10 10 @LateRoundQB Lamb, CeeDee DAL WR Mon Aug 7 6:01:07 p.m. ET 2023 33 minutes
1.11 11 @CDCarter13 St. Brown, Amon-Ra DET WR Mon Aug 7 6:04:22 p.m. ET 2023 3 minutes
1.12 12 @GrahamBarfield Brown, A.J. PHI WR Mon Aug 7 6:32:12 p.m. ET 2023 27 minutes

 

[LawFitz]

FYI, my non-QB top 5 so far, for now...

Jefferson
CMC
Tyreek
Saquon
Chase (would be #2 if Joe Cool were healthy)

 

[rockaction]

I can see it. Lots of guys in the public eye minimize their risk in general, never mind FF writers in the first round of a redraft. Drafting RBs is risky and the juice better be worth the squeeze.

Like I said in another thread (the Kareem Hunt one), good RBs this year can be had at a later ADP. Guys like Dameon Pierce, Javonte Williams, J.K, Dobbins, MIles Sanders, Rachaad White, you name it. The old guys come with injury concerns (Barkley and McCaffrey) and the young guys come with uncertainty (Hall, Taylor, Jacobs). In fact, there is a movement in FF away from RBs precisely because of the injuries. It's showing up in dynasty first rounds (aside from Bijan) and manifesting in other ways.

But thanks for posting. This is interesting.

 

[LawFitz]

Drafting RBs is risky and the juice better be worth the squeeze ... The old guys come with injury concerns (Barkley and McCaffrey) and the young guys come with uncertainty (Hall, Taylor, Jacobs). [I am moving] in FF away from RBs precisely because of the injuries.

Pretty sure I've posted these exact paraphrases since 2005 or so.

It's a pendulum, though. Stud RBs will always have their place, if you can find them... at the right price.

 

[LawFitz]

BTW, I believe it is no coincidence that the FF community is valuing RBs this low this year after the NFL grossly disrespected its two best RBs from 2022 this off-season. Use that sentiment to your advantage this fantasy draft season, if you can.

 

[travdogg]

FYI, my non-QB top 5 so far, for now...

Jefferson
CMC
Tyreek
Saquon
Chase (would be #2 if Joe Cool were healthy)

Mine is:

CMC
Chubb
Ekeler
Jefferson
Chase

Jefferson and Chase are probably the 2 safest players, but man, I really like the 3rd and 4th round WRs a lot more than the RBs in that area.

 

[Deamon]

Prepare to zag when your league zigs to WRs this year...

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1.01 1 @FF_Contrarian Jefferson, Justin MIN WR Mon Aug 7 1:44:12 p.m. ET 2023 -
1.02 2 @RotoPat Chase, Ja'Marr CIN WR Mon Aug 7 1:48:09 p.m. ET 2023 3 minutes
1.03 3 @BraudeM Hill, Tyreek MIA WR Mon Aug 7 2:12:30 p.m. ET 2023 24 minutes
1.04 4 @EvanSilva Kupp, Cooper LAR WR (Q) Mon Aug 7 2:53:03 p.m. ET 2023 40 minutes
1.05 5 @Ihartitz Diggs, Stefon BUF WR Mon Aug 7 4:41:32 p.m. ET 2023 1 hour
1.06 6 @LordReebs McCaffrey, Christian SFO RB Mon Aug 7 4:54:20 p.m. ET 2023 12 minutes
1.07 7 @MattHarmon_BYB Ekeler, Austin LAC RB Mon Aug 7 4:57:07 p.m. ET 2023 2 minutes
1.08 8 @SigmundBloom Kelce, Travis KCC TE Mon Aug 7 5:14:46 p.m. ET 2023 17 minutes
1.09 9 @MikeClayNFL Adams, Davante LVR WR Mon Aug 7 5:28:06 p.m. ET 2023 13 minutes
1.10 10 @LateRoundQB Lamb, CeeDee DAL WR Mon Aug 7 6:01:07 p.m. ET 2023 33 minutes
1.11 11 @CDCarter13 St. Brown, Amon-Ra DET WR Mon Aug 7 6:04:22 p.m. ET 2023 3 minutes
1.12 12 @GrahamBarfield Brown, A.J. PHI WR Mon Aug 7 6:32:12 p.m. ET 2023 27 minutes

1. Doubt many leagues will go like this, so you'll be stuck zagging while your league also zags.

2. Curious what the scoring system is of that draft? Full PPR and start 3 WR's and I can fully see that (Diggs over CMC/Ekeler is a bit weird, but maybe that guy just loves Diggs this year)

3. I don't see the correlation between NFL not valuing RB's and FF owners not valuing them. Again, look at ADP's and other 'expert' mocks, and you'll see very different results than this.

 

[LawFitz]

Curious what the scoring system is of that draft?

Agreed. I don't know, but I recognize many of the FF writers and would be surprised if this a completely off-base format. But maybe so. Good observation.

 

[LawFitz]

I don't see the correlation between NFL not valuing RB's and FF owners not valuing them.

It's still early and this is a sample of FF 'influencers.'

 

[LawFitz]

Is Sigmund Bloom still part of FBG? He is one of the drafters in this league and could perhaps shed some light on format.

 

[rockaction]

Just check the league rules. It's a PPR league. This is just an interesting draft. They then took like 10 RBs out of the next 13 picks. It's not that egregious nor weird.

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[Deamon]

Curious what the scoring system is of that draft?

Agreed. I don't know, but I recognize many of the FF writers and would be surprised if this a completely off-base format. But maybe so. Good observation.

Looks like it's exactly that. Full PPR, and start 3 WR (4 if you flex one). Those settings bump WR's up a lot. I still think they went a bit too high on them, but think this is again a bit of an outlier from how most people's leagues will go.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

It just shows there’s no such thing as “experts” in fantasy football. They all just follow the latest trends in off-season mocks so they look smart to the other “experts”.

 

[BobbyLayne]

BTW, I believe it is no coincidence that the FF community is valuing RBs this low this year after the NFL grossly disrespected its two best RBs from 2022 this off-season. Use that sentiment to your advantage this fantasy draft season, if you can.

so if 1.01 takes JJ I should 100% without a doubt definitely take CMC?

It's full PPR, start 3 WR + Flex - def tempted to go WR-WR-WR bc there's a good chance I end up with 3 of the top 13 WRs given my leaguemates draft history.

#houshmandzadeh

 

[BobbyLayne]

It just shows there’s no such thing as “experts” in fantasy football. They all just follow the latest trends in off-season mocks so they look smart to the other “experts”.

very much the flight to safety theory when publishing ranks & public drafts in the FF community.

back in the 70s and through the early 80s there was a saying amongst stockbrokers and analysts - "nobody ever got fired for putting out a buy on IBM." it was a dog of a stock, the obvious now upside play was MSFT or Apple. stay inside the herd or you'll get attacked.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

And watch none of them will take a QB until Round 6 to show how smart they are (because they know all the other experts will do the same) - which isn’t realistic in real drafts.

 

[BobbyLayne]

And watch none of them will take a QB until Round 6 to show how smart they are (because they know all the other experts will do the same) - which isn’t realistic in real drafts.

It's comical watching the mental gymnastics. "well I've gone four straight WRs after taking my hero RB, but I'm still going to wait on QB and TE because I still think they'll be value in the latter rounds."

Then you see the same people later in an actual money draft and they have their QB+TE by the 4th/5th every time lol.

 

[sheerterror]

It just shows there’s no such thing as “experts” in fantasy football. They all just follow the latest trends in off-season mocks so they look smart to the other “experts”.

Agreed. End of the day, we're all just guessing lol

 

[Drake Hater]

And watch none of them will take a QB until Round 6 to show how smart they are (because they know all the other experts will do the same) - which isn’t realistic in real drafts.

I saw Late Round QB guy snagged Mahomes at 4.03. Not very late there...

But that was after Allen and Hurts went in rd 3....this is probably close to what my home league will be doing.

 

[Ilov80s]

I think even the experts are taking QBs pretty high this year- at least the elite guys. Late Round QB (JJ) has been saying for awhile now that the late round thing is dead because A)fantasy players have caught on to the value of rushing QBs so those guys aren't available as late as they used to be and B) we now have this super combo guys like Allen, Lamar, Hurts who run but also can pass which creates a ppg ceiling far higher than what can be replaced by a committee.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

Just check the league rules. It's a PPR league. This is just an interesting draft. They then took like 10 RBs out of the next 13 picks. It's not that egregious nor weird.

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I was going to ask who went 13, 14, 15, 16. I can definitely understand the top 8. 9-12 is where I might start to quibble, but assuming this is a snake draft, I'm guessing that several of them went RB in the 2nd round and just preferred prioritizing their favorite WR target first.

 

[BobbyLayne]

I think even the experts are taking QBs pretty high this year- at least the elite guys. Late Round QB (JJ) has been saying for awhile now that the late round thing is dead because A)fantasy players have caught on to the value of rushing QBs so those guys aren't available as late as they used to be and B) we now have this super combo guys like Allen, Lamar, Hurts who run but also can pass which creates a ppg ceiling far higher than what can be replaced by a committee.

yeah if you don't get a rushing QB then you're really banking on 35 passing TDs, and if it ends up being 25 - which it might even for the most prolific pocket passers - then you're at a disadvantage.

even in 4 pt TD leagues a Top 3 QB makes sense this year. I'm happy with either build but having a guy like TLaw or Herbert with robust WR gives me more angst than taking a QB early 3rd.

kind of all over on that opinion, though - I really do like robust WR this year (take a wideout at 3-23-26 and punt everything else.)

 

[rockaction]

Just check the league rules. It's a PPR league. This is just an interesting draft. They then took like 10 RBs out of the next 13 picks. It's not that egregious nor weird.

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I was going to ask who went 13, 14, 15, 16. I can definitely understand the top 8. 9-12 is where I might start to quibble, but assuming this is a snake draft, I'm guessing that several of them went RB in the 2nd round and just preferred prioritizing their favorite WR target first.

I just looked at it again. They went WR-WR-RB-RB-RB-WR-RB-WR-WR-RB-RB-RB-RB for 12-23.

So out of the next thirteen, eight were RBs. Then WRs again. So the spirit of what LawFitz said is correct in the end. Derrick Henry went 3.07, which is pretty late.

 

[LawFitz]

Even with start 3 WR, I would almost never take all three starters in the early rounds. And, I don't see how you discount a RB like CMC or Saquan for injury but dismiss the injury history of the Kupp/Stafford battery, or another battery where the pitcher is already hurt right now (Bengals).

 

[-jb-]

ANECDOTE ALERT: I went JJ/Chase/AJB in a league last year, then Lamar, then hammered "high-upside" RBs (Rhamondre, Pollard, Walker). Picked up Fields late. Amazing year, albeit lucky. The experts now look back on 2022 and see how teams like that fared...they're all replicating it now.

WRs and QBs blew up last year. Has the league changed? Absolutely. Has the herd overcorrected? No question. As usual, the truth is always in the middle.


Mahomes/Allen/Hurts were a wide margin better than the ROF, but we also lost Lamar and Herbert was pretty banged up. Lawrence still ascending. My hunch is there won't be as large of a cliff this year.

JJ blew up in a big way. Adams and Hill did great...but we lost Kupp entirely and Chase missed games. Wilson and Olave ascending. Once again, the drop off people are expecting won't be so significant.


When inspecting ADP (not at its highest value as a tool this early), I simply can't find a sure thing at WR this year. That's different. There is a 24 pick difference between Deebo and Christian Watson and 31 pick difference between Deebo and Aiyuk. Make it make sense.

 

[rockaction]

When inspecting ADP (not at its highest value as a tool this early), I simply can't find a sure thing at WR this year. That's different. There is a 24 pick difference between Deebo and Christian Watson and 31 pick difference between Deebo and Aiyuk. Make it make sense.

Thank you. I blathered about the "sure things" take at WR in the Kareem Hunt thread and was making the essential point you just made, only not as to the point as you did. It was probably the wrong thread to dissect the 2023 redraft WR landscape, but once I get started. . .

 

[jobarules]

Im in two leagues. One of them has 12 active owners that hoard every RB possible. In that league I go RB heavy early. In my other league, only 2 or 3 owners actively make moves during the season so by the end of the year I usually have a plethora of options. In that league I go with best player available and/or the safest picks early. I have 1st pick in both leagues this year. In the first league I am picking CMC and in the second I am picking Jefferson.

 

[Uncle Leo]

Smith, DeVonta taken 14th overall(2.02)?

 

[LawFitz]

Smith, DeVonta taken 14th overall(2.02)?

People have lost their minds. Good to know for zagging readiness ahead of this year's drafts. Ironically, I think the mid-tier of WRs is highly overrated and I want none of the group at their ADPs after Wilson/Olave. And I have several late round guys I am conversely hyped on, so I may go Hero WR this year.

 

[Deamon]

Smith, DeVonta taken 14th overall(2.02)?

People have lost their minds. Good to know for zagging readiness ahead of this year's drafts. Ironically, I think the mid-tier of WRs is highly overrated and I want none of the group at their ADPs after Wilson/Olave. And I have several late round guys I am conversely hyped on, so I may go Hero WR this year.

I really don't think we should be looking at this ONE draft and applying it to any of our own leagues/strategies, or drawing any conclusions from it.

It seems like @CDCARTER has screwed a lot of the draft up with ridiculous picks. These were his first 4 rounds:

1.11- Amon-Ra St. Brown
2.02- Davonte Smith
3.11- Terry McLaurin
4.02- DJ Moore
5.11- Aaron Jones
6.02- Jordan Addison
7.11- James Cook
8.02- OBJ

Like... C'mon dude, no one is drafting these WR's at those spots.

 

[LawFitz]

Smith, DeVonta taken 14th overall(2.02)?

People have lost their minds. Good to know for zagging readiness ahead of this year's drafts. Ironically, I think the mid-tier of WRs is highly overrated and I want none of the group at their ADPs after Wilson/Olave. And I have several late round guys I am conversely hyped on, so I may go Hero WR this year.

I really don't think we should be looking at this ONE draft and applying it to any of our own leagues/strategies, or drawing any conclusions from it.

It seems like @CDCARTER has screwed a lot of the draft up with ridiculous picks. These were his first 4 rounds:

1.11- Amon-Ra St. Brown
2.02- Davonte Smith
3.11- Terry McLaurin
4.02- DJ Moore
5.11- Aaron Jones
6.02- Jordan Addison
7.11- James Cook
8.02- OBJ

Like... C'mon dude, no one is drafting these WR's at those spots.

I don't expect drafts to play out exactly like this one, but I am expecting runs on WRs early this year, which may or may not cascade into the middle rounds. Either way, as I formate my full roster draft plans, I find iterations where I go the Hero WR route looking more and more appealing, even in start 3 WR, which is something I've never done before - I always try to have rock solid WR1 and 2 in that format.

 

[acarey50]

When inspecting ADP (not at its highest value as a tool this early), I simply can't find a sure thing at WR this year. That's different. There is a 24 pick difference between Deebo and Christian Watson and 31 pick difference between Deebo and Aiyuk. Make it make sense.

Guess that depends on your source for ADP, as I'm not seeing the Deebo-Watson gap you mention, and the Deebo-Aiyuk gap isn't quite that large - but it's close to your number on FFPC, but some of that could be format.

Looking at Underdog ADP, Deebo's ADP is 34.4 (WR18), Watson is 41 (WR21) and Aiyuk is 51 (WR28), so same order you list but much closer in ADP.
On FFPC their ADPs are Deebo - 38.6 (WR18), Watson - 51.1 (WR22), Aiyuk - 66.6 (WR29)

Granted, those are best ball formats, and UD is a more WR friendly format with 3 required and 1 flex, FFPC less WR focused with only 2 required but 2 flexes, but TE premium.

Taking the MFL redraft tool and filtering to 12 team, PPR, redraft leagues excluding mocks and starting August 1 or later, we get the following:
Deebo - 40 (WR17) , Watson - 50 (WR20) , Aiyuk - 65 (WR28)

I personally agree with what I think you are implying and think Aiyuk should be ranked higher and have been drafting him aggressively, but enjoying the fact that I can get him regularly in the early 6th.

 

[-jb-]

When inspecting ADP (not at its highest value as a tool this early), I simply can't find a sure thing at WR this year. That's different. There is a 24 pick difference between Deebo and Christian Watson and 31 pick difference between Deebo and Aiyuk. Make it make sense.

Guess that depends on your source for ADP, as I'm not seeing the Deebo-Watson gap you mention, and the Deebo-Aiyuk gap isn't quite that large - but it's close to your number on FFPC, but some of that could be format.

Looking at Underdog ADP, Deebo's ADP is 34.4 (WR18), Watson is 41 (WR21) and Aiyuk is 51 (WR28), so same order you list but much closer in ADP.
On FFPC their ADPs are Deebo - 38.6 (WR18), Watson - 51.1 (WR22), Aiyuk - 66.6 (WR29)

Granted, those are best ball formats, and UD is a more WR friendly format with 3 required and 1 flex, FFPC less WR focused with only 2 required but 2 flexes, but TE premium.

Taking the MFL redraft tool and filtering to 12 team, PPR, redraft leagues excluding mocks and starting August 1 or later, we get the following:
Deebo - 40 (WR17) , Watson - 50 (WR20) , Aiyuk - 65 (WR28)

I personally agree with what I think you are implying and think Aiyuk should be ranked higher and have been drafting him aggressively, but enjoying the fact that I can get him regularly in the early 6th.

fantasypros consensus (yahoo, sleeper, rts)

 

[travdogg]

Smith, DeVonta taken 14th overall(2.02)?

I don't have Smith in my top-14 WRs, let alone overall.

 

[Deamon]

Smith, DeVonta taken 14th overall(2.02)?

I don't have Smith in my top-14 WRs, let alone overall.

Again, looking at the rest of that guys draft, I wouldn't take what he does so seriously or as ANY sign of anything.

1.11- Amon-Ra St. Brown
2.02- Davonte Smith
3.11- Terry McLaurin
4.02- DJ Moore
5.11- Aaron Jones
6.02- Jordan Addison
7.11- James Cook
8.02- OBJ

 

[travdogg]

Smith, DeVonta taken 14th overall(2.02)?

I don't have Smith in my top-14 WRs, let alone overall.

Again, looking at the rest of that guys draft, I wouldn't take what he does so seriously or as ANY sign of anything.

1.11- Amon-Ra St. Brown
2.02- Davonte Smith
3.11- Terry McLaurin
4.02- DJ Moore
5.11- Aaron Jones
6.02- Jordan Addison
7.11- James Cook
8.02- OBJ

I mean, he did get a pretty good value on Aaron Jones at least, but yeah, not a team I'd be happy about drafting at all.

 

[greenmountaingoat]

Interesting thread, matches my research as well. Amazing value all the way down the draft at rb in terms of adp vs my projections.

@rockaction I had similar thoughts about the elite qbs. Kyler, Herbert, Lamar all typically create a slope instead of a cliff. Obviously not a guarantee that 2022 won’t repeat. Big hopes for Lawrence and perhaps Richardson down the stretch to fill the slope too.

Kelce vs the field also can’t go like this forever. I had to nerf Mahomes and Kelce a little just to be conservative.

RB vs WR was a ~1.0 point disadvantage in 2021 projections at ADP. It’s even or flipped this year throughout the board. As @LawFitz mentioned, zig baby. WR was my strategy the past two years as the position that seemed like safe options existed at just about every spot.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Smith, DeVonta taken 14th overall(2.02)?

I don't have Smith in my top-14 WRs, let alone overall.

Again, looking at the rest of that guys draft, I wouldn't take what he does so seriously or as ANY sign of anything.

1.11- Amon-Ra St. Brown
2.02- Davonte Smith
3.11- Terry McLaurin
4.02- DJ Moore
5.11- Aaron Jones
6.02- Jordan Addison
7.11- James Cook
8.02- OBJ

6 out of his first 8 picks being a WR

I’m sure he’ll be able to trade DJ Moore for CMc later in the season though.

 

[rockaction]

@rockaction I had similar thoughts about the elite qbs.

greenmountain! Thanks for the shout-out. Love your work in the SP. Always a reader. That said, I said nothing about QBs. I thought that there were better, three-down RBs were available at later ADP than people are giving them credit for. I can think of Rachaad White, James Cook, Dobbins, Conner, and a few others as examples. Those are some decent backs without much competition on their respective teams, aside from Cook. Dalvin lurks out there, as do two-down or specialty backs like David Montgomery and Antonio Gibson.

I don't know. I just think there's value there.

 

[rockaction]

I’m sure he’ll be able to trade DJ Moore for CMc later in the season though.

BPA with no regard to roster makeup is so presumptuous about the trading whims of that league, but he's playing with experts, so he might be able to trade. Over a barrel. I see so few redraft trades in my leagues. Hell, my dynasty leagues don't even allow for perfectly trading for need after value, and one league I play in has some hitters in it. It just doesn't work that way.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I’m sure he’ll be able to trade DJ Moore for CMc later in the season though.

BPA with no regard to roster makeup is so presumptuous about the trading whims of that league, but he's playing with experts, so he might be able to trade. Over a barrel. I see so few redraft trades in my leagues. Hell, my dynasty leagues don't even allow for perfectly trading for need after value, and one league I play in has some hitters in it. It just doesn't work that way.

The thing is most of the WRs he has aren’t likely going to be bringing him back anything of real value - with the exception of his top two and he could have just grabbed RBs then. There’s a lot of WRs to go around.

 

[rockaction]

The thing is most of the WRs he has aren’t likely going to be bringing him back anything of real value

Yeah, I caught that with the whole CMC/DJ Moore thing. I caught on to that.

 

[Deamon]

I’m sure he’ll be able to trade DJ Moore for CMc later in the season though.

BPA with no regard to roster makeup is so presumptuous about the trading whims of that league, but he's playing with experts, so he might be able to trade. Over a barrel. I see so few redraft trades in my leagues. Hell, my dynasty leagues don't even allow for perfectly trading for need after value, and one league I play in has some hitters in it. It just doesn't work that way.

The thing is most of the WRs he has aren’t likely going to be bringing him back anything of real value - with the exception of his top two and he could have just grabbed RBs then. There’s a lot of WRs to go around.

Yep. Again, we are dissecting 1 draft that is such an outlier. If anyone has a similar draft to show I'd be shocked. I haven't seen anything like this anywhere else.

 

[Desert_Power]

ADP is pretty atrocious right now. Even in standard, the WRs and Kelce are going way too high. Let others make this mistake and get a couple stud RBs early.

 

[-jb-]

ADP is pretty atrocious right now. Even in standard, the WRs and Kelce are going way too high. Let others make this mistake and get a couple stud RBs early.

I agree in principle, and think Hero is a fine strategy this year, but due to the fact that WRs are going early leaves you in a bit of a pickle in round 3 to pick up your WR1. DeVonta, Olave, Tee, DK are the WRs at ADP right now (fully recognizing that ADP is essentially **** rn).

 

[Desert_Power]

ADP is pretty atrocious right now. Even in standard, the WRs and Kelce are going way too high. Let others make this mistake and get a couple stud RBs early.

I agree in principle, and think Hero is a fine strategy this year, but due to the fact that WRs are going early leaves you in a bit of a pickle in round 3 to pick up your WR1. DeVonta, Olave, Tee, DK are the WRs at ADP right now (fully recognizing that ADP is essentially **** rn).

I know what you mean. It does not feel great when you get frozen out of the top 12 of any position, but I'm much more comfortable doing that with WR than others.

I personally like those WRs a lot more than the RBs going near their ADP, but that is really all the eye of the beholder. Agree it is largely crap right now, but have just found it jarring to look at the 1st round of late.

If ever there was a year to follow Joe's lead on VBD, it feels like this one.

 

[travdogg]

ADP is pretty atrocious right now. Even in standard, the WRs and Kelce are going way too high. Let others make this mistake and get a couple stud RBs early.

I agree in principle, and think Hero is a fine strategy this year, but due to the fact that WRs are going early leaves you in a bit of a pickle in round 3 to pick up your WR1. DeVonta, Olave, Tee, DK are the WRs at ADP right now (fully recognizing that ADP is essentially **** rn).

Loaded enough elsewhere, its ok to suck at WR. I had one mock where WRs went like this draft, and my top-3 WRs were Addison, Burks, and Skyy Moore. Of course, the rest of my starting lineup was Lamar, Chubb, Pollard, Andrews, and Mixon (flex) and I'd feel great trotting that out every week.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

I think even the experts are taking QBs pretty high this year- at least the elite guys. Late Round QB (JJ) has been saying for awhile now that the late round thing is dead because A)fantasy players have caught on to the value of rushing QBs so those guys aren't available as late as they used to be and B) we now have this super combo guys like Allen, Lamar, Hurts who run but also can pass which creates a ppg ceiling far higher than what can be replaced by a committee.

yeah if you don't get a rushing QB then you're really banking on 35 passing TDs, and if it ends up being 25 - which it might even for the most prolific pocket passers - then you're at a disadvantage.

even in 4 pt TD leagues a Top 3 QB makes sense this year. I'm happy with either build but having a guy like TLaw or Herbert with robust WR gives me more angst than taking a QB early 3rd.

I view it differently. Rather than paying full price for a Big 3 QB, I'd rather target the guys who I think can make the leap to that tier this year (I also think the gap between the Big 3 and everyone else last year was an anomaly that's unlikely to repeat). So I'd much rather take the discount on Fields/Herbert/TLaw (maybe Burrow, though I'm a little worried about the injury). If I thought there was a late rounder who could make the leap to Top 5, I'd target him, but I don't really see it this year (tempted by Richardson, but I don't think he'll be a good enough passer to be truly elite).

Remember, you can generally manufacture QB 6-12 production by streaming, so the goal is to draft guys who can exceed that. That either means paying full price or hoping to get the riskier guys with upside. I prefer the latter strategy.

 

[Anarchy99]

Prepare to zag when your league zigs to WRs this year...

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1.01 1 @FF_Contrarian Jefferson, Justin MIN WR Mon Aug 7 1:44:12 p.m. ET 2023 -
1.02 2 @RotoPat Chase, Ja'Marr CIN WR Mon Aug 7 1:48:09 p.m. ET 2023 3 minutes
1.03 3 @BraudeM Hill, Tyreek MIA WR Mon Aug 7 2:12:30 p.m. ET 2023 24 minutes
1.04 4 @EvanSilva Kupp, Cooper LAR WR (Q) Mon Aug 7 2:53:03 p.m. ET 2023 40 minutes
1.05 5 @Ihartitz Diggs, Stefon BUF WR Mon Aug 7 4:41:32 p.m. ET 2023 1 hour
1.06 6 @LordReebs McCaffrey, Christian SFO RB Mon Aug 7 4:54:20 p.m. ET 2023 12 minutes
1.07 7 @MattHarmon_BYB Ekeler, Austin LAC RB Mon Aug 7 4:57:07 p.m. ET 2023 2 minutes
1.08 8 @SigmundBloom Kelce, Travis KCC TE Mon Aug 7 5:14:46 p.m. ET 2023 17 minutes
1.09 9 @MikeClayNFL Adams, Davante LVR WR Mon Aug 7 5:28:06 p.m. ET 2023 13 minutes
1.10 10 @LateRoundQB Lamb, CeeDee DAL WR Mon Aug 7 6:01:07 p.m. ET 2023 33 minutes
1.11 11 @CDCarter13 St. Brown, Amon-Ra DET WR Mon Aug 7 6:04:22 p.m. ET 2023 3 minutes
1.12 12 @GrahamBarfield Brown, A.J. PHI WR Mon Aug 7 6:32:12 p.m. ET 2023 27 minutes

I actually don't think this is all that crazy a situation. Look at the RBs that have been Top 5 over the last few years. Guys like Barkley, CMC, Mixon, and Henry have gotten hurt and missed 10 games. Other guys had seasons with insane workloads or crazy TD numbers that they didn't see before or after. Kamara was a Top 5 back that has seen his workload increase, but without all the TDs he used to get, he's fallen back in the back with other good backs.

The point being, RBs get hurt a lot, their workload can vary from year to year, their TDs can be up and down, the position is more unpredictable, and over all taking RBs early comes with more risk. Every season there are RBs that get bigger workloads, take over for injured backs, emerge on teams that people weren't really focused on, etc. Sure, any player at any position can get hurt, but WRs don't seem to get hurt as much and the mainstays maintain their production from year to year (if healthy). So yeah, in a PPR league, I'd rather "settle" for a Top 5ish WR than take a stab at a RB that is less likely to produce as a Top 5 RB for all the reasons I just mentioned.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Are there stats showing that WRs are more durable than RBs? I agree it makes intuitive sense, but I wonder if there is quantitative evidence. I suspect a lot of it stems from the overall No. 1 draft pick in recent years (Taylor last year, CMC before that) getting hurt and burning people. But consider that the WRs currently being drafted 2/3 (Chase and Kupp) both missed significant time last year. Let's say that JJ gets hurt this year, and next year, I don't know, Garrett Wilson is the 1.01 and he gets hurt; will people start migrating back to RBs at the top of the draft? I suspect they would.

Throwing out recent trends and looking at the situation objectively, I still think the relative dearth of RBs compared to WRs -- in the sense of NFL teams generally starting one RB and two WRs -- means that RBs should be valued more highly. Obviously, if you're in a league where you start 3 WRs, that changes the equation. But for the standard 2 RB/2 WR/1 flex lineup, I think it still holds.

And yes, it is true that we see far fewer of the bellcow backs dominating touches these days. But that actually strengthens the case for the ones who do, particularly the guys who get targets and goal-line carries like CMC, Ekeler and Saquon