Patrick Willis (1 Viewer)

[hotlanta]

With the latest news that Lance Briggs is about to sign with San Francisco, I'm concerned

that this will hurt Willis' numbers, especially tackles. Briggs is a pure tackler and not much

of a big play guy. In fact, he exceeded Urlacher's tackle numbers over the past 3 years.

I was pretty excited to have Willis in my keeper league, but this impending signing is making

me nervous. Don't the 49ers already have two 1st round pick LBs over the past 2 years (Lawson

and Willis)?

Any advice would be greatly appreciated. My other choice for a keeper LB is Bullock, and we

all know what kind of season he had.

 

[obxlegends]

With the latest news that Lance Briggs is about to sign with San Francisco, I'm concernedthat this will hurt Willis' numbers, especially tackles. Briggs is a pure tackler and not muchof a big play guy. In fact, he exceeded Urlacher's tackle numbers over the past 3 years.I was pretty excited to have Willis in my keeper league, but this impending signing is makingme nervous. Don't the 49ers already have two 1st round pick LBs over the past 2 years (Lawsonand Willis)?Any advice would be greatly appreciated. My other choice for a keeper LB is Bullock, and weall know what kind of season he had.

First thing first, Willis' number were likely going to take a hit this season purely due to offensive progress. No way the defense is on the field as much as they were last year. How much? Well that remains to be seen.I may be in the minority on this, but I believe a Briggs signing doesn't hurt Willis as much as you'd think. It gives the offense one more player to account for. I also think as the season went along Willis' big play numbers went up. 3.5 of his sacks came after week 12. My early predictions are...115 solos 40 assists 5 sacks and 2 int's

 

[Jene Bramel]

Touched on this briefly in the pinned schemes thread above, but it's a good topic to consider. Patrick Willis owners should be very happy to have him rostered, but should already have been tempering their expectations for 2008. Every down 1-gap RILBs with talent have been near locks for 100 solos, but 137 solos is not sustainable. Only eight LBs have had more than 110 solos over the past six seasons.

Still, Briggs is interesting. I guess there are four possibilities. From least to most likely...

1. Briggs is being looked at as a 3-4 OLB. It's been rumored that the team isn't happy with Tully Banta-Cain at all and Nolan had guys like Hannibal Navies playing outside at points last year. Briggs can cover and the Niners would theoretically get some pass rush from elsewhere. I strongly doubt Nolan goes this route.

2. Briggs will be inserted at the RILB slot and Willis will move to the strong side inside spot. A move like this would make sense from a size perspective for both, but Willis was drafted with his current spot in mind and showed plenty of playmaking skills. Players with good overall skills have been started at or moved to less favorable IDP slots all the time -- DJ Williams, Derrick Johnson, etc -- so this scenario shouldn't be totally discounted. Willis would still have value, but could potentially see a drop to LB2 type numbers based on historical trends.

3a. The Niners are looking at Briggs as a 4-3 WLB. This is entirely possible. San Francisco has been rumored to have strong interest in Briggs and Justin Smith, neither of which are classic 3-4 talent -- 1-gap or otherwise. If Banta-Cain isn't the answer, the Niners have only a recovering Manny Lawson to potentially provide OLB pass rush. In this scenario, Willis plays MLB and his value remains plenty high.

3b. Briggs will play LILB. Though his tackle numbers relative to Urlacher's were boosted due to the Chicago defensive scheme, I think Briggs can be successful outside a Tampa-2, and he'll be one of the better LILBs in recent memory. The 1-gap 3-4 trend is strong enough that Willis should still have LB1 value here, regardless of how well Briggs plays.

 

[eric rymer]

3a. The Niners are looking at Briggs as a 4-3 WLB. This is entirely possible. San Francisco has been rumored to have strong interest in Briggs and Justin Smith, neither of which are classic 3-4 talent -- 1-gap or otherwise. If Banta-Cain isn't the answer, the Niners have only a recovering Manny Lawson to potentially provide OLB pass rush. In this scenario, Willis plays MLB and his value remains plenty high.

Good stuff Jene. I wanted to talk a little about option 3a. In another thread it was talked about how Jared Allen has said that he wants to play in SF. Under the current scheme it doesn't really make much sense. Allen is definitely more suited as a 4-3 end as opposed to a 3-4 end. I would hesitate to say that SF is switching schemes for this reason, but is it realisticly an option? I mean could they be eyeing these guys as a reason to switch back to a 4-3? Justin Smith, Jared Allen, and Briggs all seem like they would be better in a 4-3.

 

[Jene Bramel]

3a. The Niners are looking at Briggs as a 4-3 WLB. This is entirely possible. San Francisco has been rumored to have strong interest in Briggs and Justin Smith, neither of which are classic 3-4 talent -- 1-gap or otherwise. If Banta-Cain isn't the answer, the Niners have only a recovering Manny Lawson to potentially provide OLB pass rush. In this scenario, Willis plays MLB and his value remains plenty high.

Good stuff Jene. I wanted to talk a little about option 3a. In another thread it was talked about how Jared Allen has said that he wants to play in SF. Under the current scheme it doesn't really make much sense. Allen is definitely more suited as a 4-3 end as opposed to a 3-4 end. I would hesitate to say that SF is switching schemes for this reason, but is it realisticly an option? I mean could they be eyeing these guys as a reason to switch back to a 4-3? Justin Smith, Jared Allen, and Briggs all seem like they would be better in a 4-3.

Forgot all about Jared Allen, thanks.But, yeah, that's where my thoughts come from. Allen and Smith could play in a 1-gap 3-4, but it makes much more sense to have them as 4-3 ends. I think Briggs can survive in a 3-4, it just seems like a lot to pay two ILBs when you should be sinking the money into OLBs.Nolan didn't hesitate to switch from a 3-4 to a 4-3 in the preseason of 2006 when he didn't have the bodies up the middle to stuff the run. He ran 4-3 when he was with the Giants and Redskins, too. He, like Mike Tomlin and Mike Zimmer, seem to understand that you fit the scheme to your talent and not the force the opposite. If you can get talent like Briggs and Allen on your roster under the cap, it's hard to pass up. Which is harder to do? Win with Jeff Ulbrich and Tully Banta Cain or change your playbook before minicamp?

 

[eric rymer]

3a. The Niners are looking at Briggs as a 4-3 WLB. This is entirely possible. San Francisco has been rumored to have strong interest in Briggs and Justin Smith, neither of which are classic 3-4 talent -- 1-gap or otherwise. If Banta-Cain isn't the answer, the Niners have only a recovering Manny Lawson to potentially provide OLB pass rush. In this scenario, Willis plays MLB and his value remains plenty high.

Good stuff Jene. I wanted to talk a little about option 3a. In another thread it was talked about how Jared Allen has said that he wants to play in SF. Under the current scheme it doesn't really make much sense. Allen is definitely more suited as a 4-3 end as opposed to a 3-4 end. I would hesitate to say that SF is switching schemes for this reason, but is it realisticly an option? I mean could they be eyeing these guys as a reason to switch back to a 4-3? Justin Smith, Jared Allen, and Briggs all seem like they would be better in a 4-3.

Forgot all about Jared Allen, thanks.But, yeah, that's where my thoughts come from. Allen and Smith could play in a 1-gap 3-4, but it makes much more sense to have them as 4-3 ends. I think Briggs can survive in a 3-4, it just seems like a lot to pay two ILBs when you should be sinking the money into OLBs.Nolan didn't hesitate to switch from a 3-4 to a 4-3 in the preseason of 2006 when he didn't have the bodies up the middle to stuff the run. He ran 4-3 when he was with the Giants and Redskins, too. He, like Mike Tomlin and Mike Zimmer, seem to understand that you fit the scheme to your talent and not the force the opposite. If you can get talent like Briggs and Allen on your roster under the cap, it's hard to pass up. Which is harder to do? Win with Jeff Ulbrich and Tully Banta Cain or change your playbook before minicamp?

That was my thoughts as well. some coaches seem to try to forse their scheme on their players. I think they would go to the 4-3 in a heartbeat with this kind of personnel. Having Smith and Allen on the ends with a LB corp consisting of Briggs, Willis and Lawson would be a pretty nice front 7. Back to the Willis discussion, I think adding these guys would actually help Willis by funnelling the plays towards him in the middle. Thanks Jene.

 

[Rozelle]

Good stuff Jean!

I wouldn't be too nervous about Briggs. Like obxlegends said, his numbers should take a hit because of better offense.

As for the possible scheme change, Giants won with a 43 front and you know how the NFL is a copy-cat league.

Willis is an IDP stud!

 

[eric rymer]

Good stuff Jean!

I wouldn't be too nervous about Briggs. Like obxlegends said, his numbers should take a hit because of better offense.

As for the possible scheme change, Giants won with a 43 front and you know how the NFL is a copy-cat league.

Willis is an IDP stud!

no doubt about it. He's one of those guys that'll be successful regardless of the scheme.