We ought to mention there is one variable that we havent accounted for, and I think would be tough to figure- the insulation of the leather ball.
All the ideal gas law tells us is that the ultimate pressure will be, but there's no time variable. Its still an open question how quickly the air inside the ball would drop to match the outside air temperature, which is why this is not going to give an exact answer (ie- it HAS to be 1.1PSI or somebody is cheating the laws of physics!).
Thats why the various experiments are a good thing. You can get real world data on what is happening to the pressure of a ball given a certain temperature chance, and how long it takes.
Exactly right -- we need more scientific experiments to test more variables (how long equilibrium takes, simulate rain conditions more accurately, etc.) to determine a realistic range of PSI change due to the game conditions.
Even if we run dozens of experiments and get a precise range of realistic PSI loss, the problem is that we have no idea how rigorously the refs checked/recorded PSI with a gauge (assuming that they actually did).
Look at this video below, that shows the refs checking football PSI (on camera, so you'd assume they'd be more careful than normal).
- at about 18 seconds into video, a ref says something like: "12.5. Eh, that's close enough."
- at about 35 seconds into the video, a ref is letting air out of the ball for at least 1-2 full seconds, and says "whoa!"
http://mmqb.si.com/2015/01/22/deflategate-video-how-nfl-officials-check-game-ball-pressure/
How do we simulate things like the fumbling refs letting out lots of air each time they tested PSI? I'm assuming that the refs double-checked or triple-checked each Patriots ball at half-time. How much air would that release?
Anyone hoping for precision PSI measurements from the refs is going to be disappointed. So no matter how precise the experiments are, you will be comparing them to imprecise ref PSI measurements.
As long as the potential range for PSI loss due to game conditions is close enough to actual PSI loss measured by the refs, that should disprove that the Patriots deflated any balls (at least for rational people).
