Patriots being investigated after Colts game (4 Viewers)

[BroadwayG]

Were the pregame PSI measurements posted in the report anywhere?

 

[Bigboy10182000]

@adamlevitan: I have DefalteGate fatigue already. Brady used fully inflated balls in Super Bowl. Lit the No. 1 pass D for 37-of-50, 328 yds, 4 TD, 2 INT.

 

[rockaction]

@adamlevitan: I have DefalteGate fatigue already. Brady used fully inflated balls in Super Bowl. Lit the No. 1 pass D for 37-of-50, 328 yds, 4 TD, 2 INT.

That's fine. It doesn't address the fumbling issue, nor the fact that he was likely using illegal balls when he beat the Ravens by four. Simply citing to one game isn't going to do it in this instance. There's a long pattern of cheating that might have influenced the path to even get to the Super Bowl.

 

[Bottomfeeder Sports]

I'd be pissed if I were the Ravens. One dubious tactic was banned in the off-season by the NFL, and the Patriots were found to have been cheating all the way back to October. This should be a big deal for competitive balance, and the suspension should be harsh.

Whether it will be is another issue.

There is no penalty that the NFL can offer that makes up for the simple fact that Ravens fans are forced to be on the same side as Steelers fans. I'm sure that is true for many other rivalries. Unforgivable!

 

[Bigboy10182000]

@adamlevitan: I have DefalteGate fatigue already. Brady used fully inflated balls in Super Bowl. Lit the No. 1 pass D for 37-of-50, 328 yds, 4 TD, 2 INT.

That's fine. It doesn't address the fumbling issue, nor the fact that he was likely using illegal balls when he beat the Ravens by four. Simply citing to one game isn't going to do it in this instance. There's a long pattern of cheating that might have influenced the path to even get to the Super Bowl.

I agree...It might have...

No real way to tell what games he (or anyone) used legal or illegal balls in but it would appear he can play at a very high level with them being inflated to the proper size. IMHO, that lessons this issue a lot....

 

[Bigboy10182000]

@adamlevitan: I have DefalteGate fatigue already. Brady used fully inflated balls in Super Bowl. Lit the No. 1 pass D for 37-of-50, 328 yds, 4 TD, 2 INT.

That's fine. It doesn't address the fumbling issue, nor the fact that he was likely using illegal balls when he beat the Ravens by four. Simply citing to one game isn't going to do it in this instance. There's a long pattern of cheating that might have influenced the path to even get to the Super Bowl.

And lets be honest, the masses aren't using this as a "might" or "maybe"---In their heads it did and I think that's the wrong approach

 

[IvanKaramazov]

@adamlevitan: I have DefalteGate fatigue already. Brady used fully inflated balls in Super Bowl. Lit the No. 1 pass D for 37-of-50, 328 yds, 4 TD, 2 INT.

That's fine. It doesn't address the fumbling issue, nor the fact that he was likely using illegal balls when he beat the Ravens by four. Simply citing to one game isn't going to do it in this instance. There's a long pattern of cheating that might have influenced the path to even get to the Super Bowl.

I agree...It might have...

No real way to tell what games he (or anyone) used legal or illegal balls in but it would appear he can play at a very high level with them being inflated to the proper size. IMHO, that lessons this issue a lot....

Nobody truly thinks that Brady sucks. He can play the QB position very well without cheating. Lance Armstrong was also unquestionably a very good cyclist even without the doping. Reasonable people can come to the conclusion that the athlete in question is really good, but should still have his accomplishments discounted because of cheating.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

@adamlevitan: I have DefalteGate fatigue already. Brady used fully inflated balls in Super Bowl. Lit the No. 1 pass D for 37-of-50, 328 yds, 4 TD, 2 INT.

That's fine. It doesn't address the fumbling issue, nor the fact that he was likely using illegal balls when he beat the Ravens by four. Simply citing to one game isn't going to do it in this instance. There's a long pattern of cheating that might have influenced the path to even get to the Super Bowl.

And lets be honest, the masses aren't using this as a "might" or "maybe"---In their heads it did and I think that's the wrong approach

That's the exact reason as to why you cheat.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Lance Armstrong

Another good parallel.

And, again, they've cheated twice that we know about.

 

[otello]

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/football/ct-tom-brady-patriots-nfl-deflategate-20150506-story.html

Brady's historic place as a quarterback should remain stable, because to say otherwise would make the mistake of conflating morals and athletic achievement. The enhanced grip matters, yes, but it is not responsible for Super Bowl rings and 4,000-yard passing seasons. It helped, just like Vaseline on an offensive lineman's jersey helps keep defensive linemen from yanking him around. He cheated, but not in a way that guaranteed success.

But what remains of Brady's golden reputation just disappeared. You can still appreciate Brady's precision, his quick mind, his steady leadership. Much of his brilliance on the field resided in his ability to always find the right play, to never put himself in a tough situation.

Away from the field, when he found himself in a difficult spot, he resorted to a different tactic. There was no defense to manipulate or play to change. He had two choices: to admit and explain what he did or evade. And Tom Brady lied.

 

[Bottomfeeder Sports]

Patriots forced to sell team and move to L.A. ...

You mean move to St Louis like they were going to do until Kraft's original shenanigans?

 

[rick6668]

How long til we see the book: "If I did it : Confessions of a cheater" ?

 

[Bayhawks]

538 examines report, concludes that Pats likely gained material advantage by cheating.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/fivethirtyeight-dissects-the-deflategate-report/

Whoa, this takes things to a different level. I hope the 538 guys follow through on their statistical analysis on fumble rates. Sounds like they've already demonstrated that the Patriots have benefited from an absurdly low fumble rate and that the odds of that being from chance are pretty low.I'd love to see a follow up where they control for variables like the types of plays run, etc and also try to look for a period of years where any other team may have had similar patterns. And lastly, I'd love for them to quantify just how many wins that advantage likely gave them over that time period.

I mean, this really does seem to call into question the legitimacy of their entire run. Turnover differential is one of the biggest statistical factors in wins and losses. This could easily have added a game or two advantage every season.

Yeah, I was really surprised by their conclusion even though back when Deflategate came to light, Brian Burke was citing those statistics and did his own take on it. I'm certainly not qualified to understand their statistical analysis, so I have to defer to authority. If what they say is true, there should be serious consequences, but I've always been a salty hater.

538 also analyzed Spygate, and found:

"Relative to Vegas’s expectations, the Patriots scored 2.4 more points per game than they “should” have during the pre-Spygate era. That might lend credence to the idea that taping defensive signals gave them an advantage, if it weren’t for the fact that they also outscored Vegas’s expectations by exactly 2.4 in the post-Spygate era as well. That means New England’s offensive overachievement was more likely due to great coaching and quarterback play, which persisted across both eras, than to any illicit edge."

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-patriots-opponents-wont-let-spygate-die-but-did-it-really-matter/

Does that mean Salty Haters have to accept 3 SBs as legit, if Pats fans agree that this last SB has an asterisk?

ALL 4 SuperBowls are legit.

The advantage given by deflated footballs is negligible. The issue is that the Pats (at least some of them, more probably than not, Brady included) knowingly broke the rules. The fact that they broke a rule to give themselves a almost meaningless edge is beside the point. Then they lied about it, blustering and boasting how they were completely innocent & would do everything they could to help the NFL investigate. Everything, that is, except allow them to interview employees again, or provide phone records that could prove/disprove Brady's knowledge/involvement.

As a Pats fan, why can't you (or others in this thread) acknowledge that this is bad for Brady and the Patriots, without jumping to ridiculous extremes like "you can't take our SuperBowls away!" And, I realize there are some "salty haters" who want to say this is proof that BB is a horrible coach who only wins by cheating, Brady is a sucky QB who only wins by cheating, and the NE franchise can only win by cheating, but just because they jump to one ridiculous extreme doesn't mean Pats fans need to jump to the other ridiculous extreme.

 

[espnespn]

538 examines report, concludes that Pats likely gained material advantage by cheating.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/fivethirtyeight-dissects-the-deflategate-report/

Whoa, this takes things to a different level. I hope the 538 guys follow through on their statistical analysis on fumble rates. Sounds like they've already demonstrated that the Patriots have benefited from an absurdly low fumble rate and that the odds of that being from chance are pretty low.I'd love to see a follow up where they control for variables like the types of plays run, etc and also try to look for a period of years where any other team may have had similar patterns. And lastly, I'd love for them to quantify just how many wins that advantage likely gave them over that time period.

I mean, this really does seem to call into question the legitimacy of their entire run. Turnover differential is one of the biggest statistical factors in wins and losses. This could easily have added a game or two advantage every season.

Yeah, I was really surprised by their conclusion even though back when Deflategate came to light, Brian Burke was citing those statistics and did his own take on it. I'm certainly not qualified to understand their statistical analysis, so I have to defer to authority. If what they say is true, there should be serious consequences, but I've always been a salty hater.

538 also analyzed Spygate, and found:

"Relative to Vegas’s expectations, the Patriots scored 2.4 more points per game than they “should” have during the pre-Spygate era. That might lend credence to the idea that taping defensive signals gave them an advantage, if it weren’t for the fact that they also outscored Vegas’s expectations by exactly 2.4 in the post-Spygate era as well. That means New England’s offensive overachievement was more likely due to great coaching and quarterback play, which persisted across both eras, than to any illicit edge."

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-patriots-opponents-wont-let-spygate-die-but-did-it-really-matter/

Does that mean Salty Haters have to accept 3 SBs as legit, if Pats fans agree that this last SB has an asterisk?

Nah, they're using Vegas expectations and saying "more likely." Not sure those are great premises.

Just curious, what do you consider the percentage difference between "more likely" vs. "more probable than not"? To me, both phrases mean at least over 50%.

 

[Anarchy99]

Patriots forced to sell team and move to L.A. ...

You mean move to St Louis like they were going to do until Kraft's original shenanigans?

It was Hartford not St. Louis.

 

[shader]

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/05/07/tom-bradys-agent-blasts-the-wells-report/

Brady's agent blasts the one-sided report

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Just curious, what do you consider the percentage difference between "more likely" vs. "more probable than not"? To me, both phrases mean at least over 50%.

That's because you're not paying attention to information you don't like.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/05/07/tom-bradys-agent-blasts-the-wells-report/

Brady's agent blasts the one-sided report

Yee says that when the Colts raised questions about the Patriots’ footballs prior to the AFC Championship Game, the NFL should have warned the Patriots that their footballs would be tested.

"We like, totally wouldn't have cheated in that particular manner if we had known the league would be looking. That's like so unfair."

 

[Bayhawks]

@adamlevitan: I have DefalteGate fatigue already. Brady used fully inflated balls in Super Bowl. Lit the No. 1 pass D for 37-of-50, 328 yds, 4 TD, 2 INT.

That's fine. It doesn't address the fumbling issue, nor the fact that he was likely using illegal balls when he beat the Ravens by four. Simply citing to one game isn't going to do it in this instance. There's a long pattern of cheating that might have influenced the path to even get to the Super Bowl.

What it does do is reinforce the point that the air pressure in teh footballs doesn't have a great impact on the game. Sure, it matters A LITTLE, but it's not a major point.

That just makes it even more asinine that Brady did it. He knowingly broke a rule that didn't need to be broken. He can't even claim that he didn't know (especially in light of his post-Baltimore diatribe suggesting the Ravens "read the rulebook").

It screams of hubris; "I don't need to follow this rule, because we're the Pats, and I'm Tom Brady!"

 

[Tango]

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/05/07/tom-bradys-agent-blasts-the-wells-report/

Brady's agent blasts the one-sided report

Mostly silly comments, but he has one valid point: Release the Brady testimony.

 

[espnespn]

538 examines report, concludes that Pats likely gained material advantage by cheating.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/fivethirtyeight-dissects-the-deflategate-report/

Whoa, this takes things to a different level. I hope the 538 guys follow through on their statistical analysis on fumble rates. Sounds like they've already demonstrated that the Patriots have benefited from an absurdly low fumble rate and that the odds of that being from chance are pretty low.I'd love to see a follow up where they control for variables like the types of plays run, etc and also try to look for a period of years where any other team may have had similar patterns. And lastly, I'd love for them to quantify just how many wins that advantage likely gave them over that time period.

I mean, this really does seem to call into question the legitimacy of their entire run. Turnover differential is one of the biggest statistical factors in wins and losses. This could easily have added a game or two advantage every season.

Yeah, I was really surprised by their conclusion even though back when Deflategate came to light, Brian Burke was citing those statistics and did his own take on it. I'm certainly not qualified to understand their statistical analysis, so I have to defer to authority. If what they say is true, there should be serious consequences, but I've always been a salty hater.

538 also analyzed Spygate, and found:

"Relative to Vegas’s expectations, the Patriots scored 2.4 more points per game than they “should” have during the pre-Spygate era. That might lend credence to the idea that taping defensive signals gave them an advantage, if it weren’t for the fact that they also outscored Vegas’s expectations by exactly 2.4 in the post-Spygate era as well. That means New England’s offensive overachievement was more likely due to great coaching and quarterback play, which persisted across both eras, than to any illicit edge."

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-patriots-opponents-wont-let-spygate-die-but-did-it-really-matter/

Does that mean Salty Haters have to accept 3 SBs as legit, if Pats fans agree that this last SB has an asterisk?

Except that, oops, it turns out that they were cheating in OTHER ways after the fact, which means that their analysis in that article is now based on a faulty premise.

And at this point, I think the possibility that they've been cheating in other ways that just haven't come to light yet can't be discounted. Throw enough money at some of these equipment guys or other poor dumb schmoes and I bet this whole thing ends up collapsing in on itself and suddenly the Patriots are the Black Sox of the NFL.

Funny how 538 has good stat analysis when their articles are not Patriots-favorable, but has bad stat analysis when their articles are Patriots-favorable.

Btw, the Wells Report PSI analysis assumes that football PSI started at 12.5, when there is zero recorded evidence of that. But that faulty premise is conveniently ignored...just because.

http://www.si.com/nfl/2015/05/06/deflategate-new-england-patriots-tom-brady-wells-report

"But it’s also important to remember that the league has no indisputable evidence that those footballs started their night’s work at 12.5 PSI, because inexplicably no record of pre-game measurements were made even though the Colts clearly had made the NFL aware of their ball deflation concerns about New England the day before the game. The scientific consultants to the Wells report found “no set of credible environmental or physical factors that completely accounts for the Patriots halftime (football inflation) measurements,’’ but it was also reported by those same consultants “that the data alone did not provide a basis for them to determine with absolute certainty whether there was or was not tampering.’’

 

[IvanKaramazov]

Btw, the Wells Report PSI analysis assumes that football PSI started at 12.5, when there is zero recorded evidence of that. But that faulty premise is conveniently ignored...just because.

http://www.si.com/nfl/2015/05/06/deflategate-new-england-patriots-tom-brady-wells-report

"But it’s also important to remember that the league has no indisputable evidence that those footballs started their night’s work at 12.5 PSI, because inexplicably no record of pre-game measurements were made even though the Colts clearly had made the NFL aware of their ball deflation concerns about New England the day before the game. The scientific consultants to the Wells report found “no set of credible environmental or physical factors that completely accounts for the Patriots halftime (football inflation) measurements,’’ but it was also reported by those same consultants “that the data alone did not provide a basis for them to determine with absolute certainty whether there was or was not tampering.’’

That equipment guy who kept referring to himself as "the deflator?" That was all just a big misunderstanding. It turns out that's he just really concerned about the money supply and thinks we should keep the price level low and stable, and that's how he got that nickname.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/05/07/tom-bradys-agent-blasts-the-wells-report/

Brady's agent blasts the one-sided report

Yee says that when the Colts raised questions about the Patriots’ footballs prior to the AFC Championship Game, the NFL should have warned the Patriots that their footballs would be tested.

"We like, totally wouldn't have cheated in that particular manner if we had known the league would be looking. That's like so unfair."

Holy ####... did he really just say that red text?

That guy might be one of our Patriot forum posters here at FBG.

 

[Bigboy10182000]

@adamlevitan: I have DefalteGate fatigue already. Brady used fully inflated balls in Super Bowl. Lit the No. 1 pass D for 37-of-50, 328 yds, 4 TD, 2 INT.

That's fine. It doesn't address the fumbling issue, nor the fact that he was likely using illegal balls when he beat the Ravens by four. Simply citing to one game isn't going to do it in this instance. There's a long pattern of cheating that might have influenced the path to even get to the Super Bowl.

And lets be honest, the masses aren't using this as a "might" or "maybe"---In their heads it did and I think that's the wrong approach

That's the exact reason as to why you cheat.

Cheating is breaking the law of the sport but there's different degrees. A guy doing 30 in a 25 is speeding....just like the guy doing 80 in a 25. Deflate Gate (30 mph) seems like Noise Gate (30 mph) and neither are even close to the degree of Spygate (80 mph) IMO.

 

[Donnybrook]

Lance Armstrong

Another good parallel.

And, again, they've cheated twice that we know about.

I am not a fan of Patriots and I think you have totally lost it. Blood doping is not equal to deflating a few footballs. Did tampering with the psi of footballs changed the outcome of any game? Probably No.

 

[Bigboy10182000]

@adamlevitan: I have DefalteGate fatigue already. Brady used fully inflated balls in Super Bowl. Lit the No. 1 pass D for 37-of-50, 328 yds, 4 TD, 2 INT.

That's fine. It doesn't address the fumbling issue, nor the fact that he was likely using illegal balls when he beat the Ravens by four. Simply citing to one game isn't going to do it in this instance. There's a long pattern of cheating that might have influenced the path to even get to the Super Bowl.

I agree...It might have...

No real way to tell what games he (or anyone) used legal or illegal balls in but it would appear he can play at a very high level with them being inflated to the proper size. IMHO, that lessons this issue a lot....

Nobody truly thinks that Brady sucks. He can play the QB position very well without cheating. Lance Armstrong was also unquestionably a very good cyclist even without the doping. Reasonable people can come to the conclusion that the athlete in question is really good, but should still have his accomplishments discounted because of cheating.

How so if you cant truly tell how much of an effect it had on the game?

Doping is different. Barry Bonds isn't performing at that level, at his age, without the juice. Tom did better against Indy with the balls inflated properly and had an awesome game against one of our generations best defenses, on the biggest stage. I don't see how you can discount his accomplishments in any meaningful way with that starring you in the face.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

@adamlevitan: I have DefalteGate fatigue already. Brady used fully inflated balls in Super Bowl. Lit the No. 1 pass D for 37-of-50, 328 yds, 4 TD, 2 INT.

That's fine. It doesn't address the fumbling issue, nor the fact that he was likely using illegal balls when he beat the Ravens by four. Simply citing to one game isn't going to do it in this instance. There's a long pattern of cheating that might have influenced the path to even get to the Super Bowl.

I agree...It might have...

No real way to tell what games he (or anyone) used legal or illegal balls in but it would appear he can play at a very high level with them being inflated to the proper size. IMHO, that lessons this issue a lot....

Nobody truly thinks that Brady sucks. He can play the QB position very well without cheating. Lance Armstrong was also unquestionably a very good cyclist even without the doping. Reasonable people can come to the conclusion that the athlete in question is really good, but should still have his accomplishments discounted because of cheating.

How so if you cant truly tell how much of an effect it had on the game?

Brady clearly thinks it has an impact. Otherwise he wouldn't have done it.

I agree with the folks at 538 that those fumble numbers suddenly look a lot more troubling.

 

[Steelers4Life]

All this talk about what if any competitive advantage they did or didn't get is ridiculous.

The simple fact is that if they didn't benefit from doing it, they wouldn't have done it. There was a reason - obviously to get a better grip of the football - just like there was an advantage they gained by taping signals. A team isn't going to break a rule without gaining something by it.

If someone wants to say they didn't win or lose because of it, that's fine too. But to say they didn't benefit from it is ridiculous, and breaking a rule to gain a competitive advantage deserves a harsh punishment.... again. I think the league is going to send a pretty harsh message and it sounds like most football fans outside of New England will be strongly in favor of it. Hell, a huge percentage of Pats fans are calling Brady a liar at this point based on what's in the report, and that says a lot.

 

[Bigboy10182000]

@adamlevitan: I have DefalteGate fatigue already. Brady used fully inflated balls in Super Bowl. Lit the No. 1 pass D for 37-of-50, 328 yds, 4 TD, 2 INT.

That's fine. It doesn't address the fumbling issue, nor the fact that he was likely using illegal balls when he beat the Ravens by four. Simply citing to one game isn't going to do it in this instance. There's a long pattern of cheating that might have influenced the path to even get to the Super Bowl.

I agree...It might have...

No real way to tell what games he (or anyone) used legal or illegal balls in but it would appear he can play at a very high level with them being inflated to the proper size. IMHO, that lessons this issue a lot....

Nobody truly thinks that Brady sucks. He can play the QB position very well without cheating. Lance Armstrong was also unquestionably a very good cyclist even without the doping. Reasonable people can come to the conclusion that the athlete in question is really good, but should still have his accomplishments discounted because of cheating.

How so if you cant truly tell how much of an effect it had on the game?

Brady clearly thinks it has an impact. Otherwise he wouldn't have done it.

I agree with the folks at 538 that those fumble numbers suddenly look a lot more troubling.

Some athletes think not changing their socks for a month helps them as well....

 

[rockaction]

Were the pregame PSI measurements posted in the report anywhere?

Wait…way off-topic. Gorilla Biscuits?

 

[Shutout]

The people defending Tom Brady remind me of the people who defended Joe Paterno.

Not even close. Different kind of saggy balls being compared.

 

[Donnybrook]

Brady clearly thinks it has an impact. Otherwise he wouldn't have done it. I agree with the folks at 538 that those fumble numbers suddenly look a lot more troubling.

Are all the San Francisco Super Bowls seasons tainted because Jerry Rice used stick-um?

 

[Run It Up]

We can all be sure of one thing. No one will be satisfied with Goodell's disciplinary action.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

@adamlevitan: I have DefalteGate fatigue already. Brady used fully inflated balls in Super Bowl. Lit the No. 1 pass D for 37-of-50, 328 yds, 4 TD, 2 INT.

That's fine. It doesn't address the fumbling issue, nor the fact that he was likely using illegal balls when he beat the Ravens by four. Simply citing to one game isn't going to do it in this instance. There's a long pattern of cheating that might have influenced the path to even get to the Super Bowl.

I agree...It might have...

No real way to tell what games he (or anyone) used legal or illegal balls in but it would appear he can play at a very high level with them being inflated to the proper size. IMHO, that lessons this issue a lot....

Nobody truly thinks that Brady sucks. He can play the QB position very well without cheating. Lance Armstrong was also unquestionably a very good cyclist even without the doping. Reasonable people can come to the conclusion that the athlete in question is really good, but should still have his accomplishments discounted because of cheating.

How so if you cant truly tell how much of an effect it had on the game?

Brady clearly thinks it has an impact. Otherwise he wouldn't have done it.

I agree with the folks at 538 that those fumble numbers suddenly look a lot more troubling.

Brady thinks it had enough of an impact to complain about fully-inflated balls and conspire with equipment guys to deflate them after the refs had checked them.

But yeah, I'm sure he was doing it just for giggles.

 

[rockaction]

I'd be pissed if I were the Ravens. One dubious tactic was banned in the off-season by the NFL, and the Patriots were found to have been cheating all the way back to October. This should be a big deal for competitive balance, and the suspension should be harsh.

Whether it will be is another issue.

There is no penalty that the NFL can offer that makes up for the simple fact that Ravens fans are forced to be on the same side as Steelers fans. I'm sure that is true for many other rivalries. Unforgivable!

On the plus side, the Patriots cheating scandals seem to unite the most disparate of people. I'd bet a lot of America's divisions would be solved if we had a good Pats scandal every year.

 

[BroadwayG]

Were the pregame PSI measurements posted in the report anywhere?

Wait…way off-topic. Gorilla Biscuits?

Yes

 

[Bigboy10182000]

Brady clearly thinks it has an impact. Otherwise he wouldn't have done it. I agree with the folks at 538 that those fumble numbers suddenly look a lot more troubling.

Are all the San Francisco Super Bowls seasons tainted because Jerry Rice used stick-um?

If we had the same social media at that time, yes they would be tainted.

And Michael Jordan probably wouldn't be on Nike....

 

[moleculo]

538 examines report, concludes that Pats likely gained material advantage by cheating.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/fivethirtyeight-dissects-the-deflategate-report/

Whoa, this takes things to a different level. I hope the 538 guys follow through on their statistical analysis on fumble rates. Sounds like they've already demonstrated that the Patriots have benefited from an absurdly low fumble rate and that the odds of that being from chance are pretty low.I'd love to see a follow up where they control for variables like the types of plays run, etc and also try to look for a period of years where any other team may have had similar patterns. And lastly, I'd love for them to quantify just how many wins that advantage likely gave them over that time period.

I mean, this really does seem to call into question the legitimacy of their entire run. Turnover differential is one of the biggest statistical factors in wins and losses. This could easily have added a game or two advantage every season.

Yeah, I was really surprised by their conclusion even though back when Deflategate came to light, Brian Burke was citing those statistics and did his own take on it. I'm certainly not qualified to understand their statistical analysis, so I have to defer to authority. If what they say is true, there should be serious consequences, but I've always been a salty hater.

538 also analyzed Spygate, and found:

"Relative to Vegas’s expectations, the Patriots scored 2.4 more points per game than they “should” have during the pre-Spygate era. That might lend credence to the idea that taping defensive signals gave them an advantage, if it weren’t for the fact that they also outscored Vegas’s expectations by exactly 2.4 in the post-Spygate era as well. That means New England’s offensive overachievement was more likely due to great coaching and quarterback play, which persisted across both eras, than to any illicit edge."

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-patriots-opponents-wont-let-spygate-die-but-did-it-really-matter/

Does that mean Salty Haters have to accept 3 SBs as legit, if Pats fans agree that this last SB has an asterisk?

Except that, oops, it turns out that they were cheating in OTHER ways after the fact, which means that their analysis in that article is now based on a faulty premise.

And at this point, I think the possibility that they've been cheating in other ways that just haven't come to light yet can't be discounted. Throw enough money at some of these equipment guys or other poor dumb schmoes and I bet this whole thing ends up collapsing in on itself and suddenly the Patriots are the Black Sox of the NFL.

Funny how 538 has good stat analysis when their articles are not Patriots-favorable, but has bad stat analysis when their articles are Patriots-favorable.

Btw, the Wells Report PSI analysis assumes that football PSI started at 12.5, when there is zero recorded evidence of that. But that faulty premise is conveniently ignored...just because.

http://www.si.com/nfl/2015/05/06/deflategate-new-england-patriots-tom-brady-wells-report

"But it’s also important to remember that the league has no indisputable evidence that those footballs started their night’s work at 12.5 PSI, because inexplicably no record of pre-game measurements were made even though the Colts clearly had made the NFL aware of their ball deflation concerns about New England the day before the game. The scientific consultants to the Wells report found “no set of credible environmental or physical factors that completely accounts for the Patriots halftime (football inflation) measurements,’’ but it was also reported by those same consultants “that the data alone did not provide a basis for them to determine with absolute certainty whether there was or was not tampering.’’

page 52 of the Wells report:

When tested, all of the Patriots footballs—both game balls and back-up balls—

registered on the lower-end of the permissible inflation range. Anderson recalls that most of the

Patriots footballs measured 12.5 psi, though there may have been one or two that measured 12.6

psi. No air was added to or released from these balls because they were within the permissible

range. According to Anderson, two of the game balls provided by the Patriots measured below

the 12.5 psi threshold. Yette used the air pump provided by the Patriots to inflate those footballs,

explaining that he “purposefully overshot” the range (because it is hard to be precise when

adding air), and then gave the footballs back to Anderson, who used the air release valve on his

gauge to reduce the pressure down to 12.5 psi.

According to Anderson, when tested, most of the Colts footballs measured 13.0 or

13.1 psi. Anderson believes that there may have been one or two footballs that registered 12.8 or

12.9 psi, but recalls that it was “pretty evident that their target was 13.” Because the Colts balls

all measured within the permissible range, no air was added to or released from the footballs.

NFL game officials are not required to, and do not as a matter of standard

practice, record in writing the pressure measurements taken during their pre-game inspections of

game balls. We credit Anderson‟s recollection of the pre-game measurements taken on the day

of the AFC Championship Game based on both the level of confidence Anderson expressed in

his recollection and the consistency of his recollection with information provided by each of the

Patriots and Colts regarding their target inflation levels.

the measurements were not written down, but that doesn't mean they weren't noted. Anderson is a highly respected official who has been in the league since 1996. Attacking his recollection and statements in the Wells report is attacking his integrity directly.

 

[Shutout]

@adamlevitan: I have DefalteGate fatigue already. Brady used fully inflated balls in Super Bowl. Lit the No. 1 pass D for 37-of-50, 328 yds, 4 TD, 2 INT.

That's fine. It doesn't address the fumbling issue, nor the fact that he was likely using illegal balls when he beat the Ravens by four. Simply citing to one game isn't going to do it in this instance. There's a long pattern of cheating that might have influenced the path to even get to the Super Bowl.

ohh, come on. Let's not make this "the butterfly effect". If Ray Rice doesn't punch his fiancé, they keep him and he is less effective and the Ravens lose a game they otherwise won and never get matched up in the game in the first place...WHO CARES? It can't be changed and a trillion things going 6 inches to the left or right during the course of the year determines things. We move on. Its like Percy Harvin clearly stepping out of bounds but getting called a TD. Surely that had some snowballing effect that ends with the Packers in the Super Bowl somehow (or Dallas had the refs made the right call).

It's sports. It is ingrained with human error and it is ingrained with instances of cheating a thousand times over that we never hear about. No need to plant a stake in the ground on this.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Brady clearly thinks it has an impact. Otherwise he wouldn't have done it. I agree with the folks at 538 that those fumble numbers suddenly look a lot more troubling.

Are all the San Francisco Super Bowls seasons tainted because Jerry Rice used stick-um?

Nope.

 

[JIslander]

@adamlevitan: I have DefalteGate fatigue already. Brady used fully inflated balls in Super Bowl. Lit the No. 1 pass D for 37-of-50, 328 yds, 4 TD, 2 INT.

That's fine. It doesn't address the fumbling issue, nor the fact that he was likely using illegal balls when he beat the Ravens by four. Simply citing to one game isn't going to do it in this instance. There's a long pattern of cheating that might have influenced the path to even get to the Super Bowl.

I agree...It might have...

No real way to tell what games he (or anyone) used legal or illegal balls in but it would appear he can play at a very high level with them being inflated to the proper size. IMHO, that lessons this issue a lot....

Nobody truly thinks that Brady sucks. He can play the QB position very well without cheating. Lance Armstrong was also unquestionably a very good cyclist even without the doping. Reasonable people can come to the conclusion that the athlete in question is really good, but should still have his accomplishments discounted because of cheating.

How so if you cant truly tell how much of an effect it had on the game?

Brady clearly thinks it has an impact. Otherwise he wouldn't have done it.

I agree with the folks at 538 that those fumble numbers suddenly look a lot more troubling.

Some athletes think not changing their socks for a month helps them as well....

No. In baseball, it'd be more like corking a bat vs. not stepping on foul lines

 

[Tango]

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/05/07/tom-bradys-agent-blasts-the-wells-report/

Brady's agent blasts the one-sided report

Mostly silly comments, but he has one valid point: Release the Brady testimony.

Now I notice that the agent says he wrote down every single word of Brady's testimony.

Why isn't he simply releasing it himself instead of complaining?

 

[Bigboy10182000]

@adamlevitan: I have DefalteGate fatigue already. Brady used fully inflated balls in Super Bowl. Lit the No. 1 pass D for 37-of-50, 328 yds, 4 TD, 2 INT.

That's fine. It doesn't address the fumbling issue, nor the fact that he was likely using illegal balls when he beat the Ravens by four. Simply citing to one game isn't going to do it in this instance. There's a long pattern of cheating that might have influenced the path to even get to the Super Bowl.

ohh, come on. Let's not make this "the butterfly effect". If Ray Rice doesn't punch his fiancé, they keep him and he is less effective and the Ravens lose a game they otherwise won and never get matched up in the game in the first place...WHO CARES? It can't be changed and a trillion things going 6 inches to the left or right during the course of the year determines things. We move on. Its like Percy Harvin clearly stepping out of bounds but getting called a TD. Surely that had some snowballing effect that ends with the Packers in the Super Bowl somehow (or Dallas had the refs made the right call).

It's sports. It is ingrained with human error and it is ingrained with instances of cheating a thousand times over that we never hear about. No need to plant a stake in the ground on this.

How do I add this as my signature? Well said.

 

[Bigboy10182000]

No. In baseball, it'd be more like corking a bat vs. not stepping on foul lines

That's still no good. A corked bat has a measurable effect, a glaring one at that. Brady's production was elite without the "help"

Look, had he sheet the bed the 2nd half of Indy or looked awful against Seattle there may be a bigger deal. Right now this is, as I said before, like doing 30 mph in a 25. Sure he broke the law but come on...

 

[Shutout]

Boy, Goodell is going to earn his paycheck on this one.

The Super Bowl Champs open up the season in the game the league self-refers to as a showcase, and the brightest star on the Patriots might have to sit it out and the leading RB for their opponent gets to sit it out, too, reminding everyone who watches the "showcase" of the issues in the league, yet again.

And the whole thought that this game might be extremely important to playoff seeding four months later might be on people's minds, too.

 

[FUBAR]

I'd be pissed if I were the Ravens. One dubious tactic was banned in the off-season by the NFL, and the Patriots were found to have been cheating all the way back to October. This should be a big deal for competitive balance, and the suspension should be harsh.

Whether it will be is another issue.

There is no penalty that the NFL can offer that makes up for the simple fact that Ravens fans are forced to be on the same side as Steelers fans. I'm sure that is true for many other rivalries. Unforgivable!

On the plus side, the Patriots cheating scandals seem to unite the most disparate of people. I'd bet a lot of America's divisions would be solved if we had a good Pats scandal every year.

They're bringing America together. It's quite Patriotic of them,

 

[JIslander]

No. In baseball, it'd be more like corking a bat vs. not stepping on foul lines

That's still no good. A corked bat has a measurable effect, a glaring one at that. Brady's production was elite without the "help"

Look, had he sheet the bed the 2nd half of Indy or looked awful against Seattle there may be a bigger deal. Right now this is, as I said before, like doing 30 mph in a 25. Sure he broke the law but come on...

Brady doesn't give a 50,000 yd football to the equipment guy if it didn't have a measurable effect. And this goes beyond Brady with the fumbles.

 

[Skoo]

That's still no good. A corked bat has a measurable effect, a glaring one at that. Brady's production was elite without the "help"

Look, had he sheet the bed the 2nd half of Indy or looked awful against Seattle there may be a bigger deal. Right now this is, as I said before, like doing 30 mph in a 25. Sure he broke the law but come on...

Whether he needed it to win or not, it's still cheating. And I think that lying about it and then refusing to cooperate with investigators is what's gonna get him in the most hot water.

 

[SacramentoBob]

He deserves the Pete Rose treatment.

 

[yellowdog]